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Southwest Airlines (LUV): Geopolitics, Oil Prices, and Market ReThe recent conflict involving Iran created a challenging environment for airline stocks. As geopolitical tensions increased, energy markets experienced heightened volatility, leading investors to focus on the potential impact of higher fuel costs on airline profitability.
Southwest Airlines (LUV) experienced a significant decline during this period as market participants reacted to uncertainty surrounding oil prices and the broader economic implications of the conflict.
From a chart perspective, LUV provides an interesting example of how market participants process changing information.
Current observations from the chart:
Price has traded within an upward-sloping channel since April.
Multiple tests of the lower trendline have been followed by rebounds toward the upper boundary of the range.
Price is currently approaching an area that has previously acted as resistance.
The stock is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Momentum indicators have improved relative to the lows established earlier in the year.
This chart highlights the relationship between geopolitical events, commodity markets, and equity prices. Airline stocks are often sensitive to changes in fuel costs, making them useful case studies when analyzing how external events can influence investor behavior.
Whether the current trend continues, reverses, or transitions into a different trading range remains unknown. The purpose of this analysis is to examine how fundamental developments and technical price action can interact during periods of elevated uncertainty.
This post is intended solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. JETS - Airline ETF About To Tailspin?On January 31, 2025, I posted a really nice setup that produced a -37% move (out of 100%, mind you - don't do Trump's 300% drop math!)
Oil was $73 back then, compared to $60 today.
Jet fuel was about where it is today $2.30
The 2-year interest rate was about 4.25% vs 3.55% today.
Airfare was about the same $270
So how do I read this?
One oil is signaling a weak global economy. Very bad for a highly economically sensitive industry.
Jet fuel is one of the biggest costs remaining constant.
Rates have fallen in a very meaningful way and are expected to fall further. Intuitively, you would believe this is Great!! for such a capital-intensive industry. However, if the economy were strong and growing rate wouldn't be falling!
This finally brings us to airfare stable at $270, which illustrates no pricing power despite a few airlines going out and route reductions. I don't have up-to-date information on recent ASM (if you do let me know) but I am confident it is likely shrinking a bit.
Conclusion: given where airlines are trading today, the chart pattern and economic headwinds with no pricing power and fares likely to fall going forward, I will once again raise a big WARNING!! flag to airline bulls.
Great risk reward for shorts setup for bears! Short rallies.
Click boost follow for more Raw, Insightful, Authentic Economics, trading/investing. Short 
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Is Air France a Good Buy ? - AnalysisDue to the current conflict happening in the middle east, a lot of commercial airlines have seen their stocks depreciate quite a lot. And as we the DFM (Dubai stock market is closed), Air Arabia hasn't had its stock move. Moreover, in order to buy Air Arabia one has to have a NIN, which might take days if not weeks to get depending on your situation. As such, a big European company that is available on big brokers is Air France. This company has dropped (15%) since the start of this conflict and might give us a good run back to its previous level. As remember, here the business model won't be impacted, only short term profits will be. Once the war ends, the air pathways in the middle east will re-open, and logically the business model of such commercial airlines won't have changed if the situation is safe and airlines keep operating there. So, lmk if you guys think its a good buy or not.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any securities. Asset prices, valuations, and performance metrics are subject to change and may be outdated. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. The information presented may contain inaccuracies and should not be solely relied upon for financial decisions. I am not a licensed financial advisor or professional trader. I am not personally liable for your own losses; this is not financial advice. 
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JetBlue Airways | JBLU | Long at $5.92JetBlue NASDAQ:JBLU - Earnings and revenue beat today, stock drops -26% by noon.
2025 Outlook:
"For the first quarter of 2025, JetBlue expects its available seat miles (ASM) to decline 2% to 5% year-over-year, with revenue per ASM projected to range from a 0.5% decline to a 3.5% gain, while analysts had expected the metric to rise 5% year-over-year. JetBlue said it also expects cost per ASM to rise 8% to 10% in the first quarter. The airline also expects cost per ASM to rise 5% to 7% for the full fiscal year, with revenue per ASM projected to rise 3% to 6% compared to the metric staying flat in 2024."
Travel is increasing rapidly from the pandemic lows and if oil continues to drop, airlines will continue to experience a boom. This outlook may be overly negative as "protection" while the company further moves toward profitability.
My only concern is there is a price gap on the daily chart near $4.00 that is still open (and could be filled in the near future. But, from a technical analysis perspective, the bottom of my historical simple moving average line today is $5.90. It may bounce there, or shakeout shareholders for a while to test the $4 range. Regardless, JetBlue is a mid-level ranked airline that is, indeed, moving toward profitability - it may just take it getting through 2025 to gain investor confidence.
Initial entry position started at $5.92.
Target:
$7.95 
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Gogo Inc | GOGO | Long at $4.65While NASDAQ:GOGO Inc may have competition from Starlink when it comes to providing internet service to airlines and its passengers, such a change isn't financially beneficial to many airlines. Instead, as GoGo has stated, it's evolving its services to match those of Starlink (i.e. upgrades). As more and more people fly and internet demand grows, NASDAQ:GOGO will likely continue to position itself as a monopoly within the ISP world for airlines in the near-term.
Pros
Dominates the North American business aviation connectivity market, especially for smaller jets
Projected Growth : EPS +278.9% between 2025 and 2028
Insider Buying : $2.3 million in purchases in the last 2 months
Cons
Starlink competition
High debt (but plans to use free cash flow to reduce it substantially beyond 2026)
Action
While price may further dip into the $3 range in the near-term, I believe interest rates dropping, projected growth, and insider buying are potential bullish signals. The cost for airlines to switch to other providers is beneficial to maintaining NASDAQ:GOGO market dominance. However, like any play, this is going to come down to management's control of debt and no major economic or world issues disrupting airline travel. Thus, at $4.65, NASDAQ:GOGO is in a personal buy zone with near-term risk of a drop into the $3 range.
Targets into 2028
$6.00 (+29.0%)
$8.00 (+72.0%)
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Alaska Airlines | ALK | Long at $49.77If the numbers (not the "economic downturn" reports on the news) are true, more and more people...year over year... are actually flying: www.tsa.gov
In 2024, Alaska Airlines NYSE:ALK carried 36 million paying passengers, an increase from 35 million in 2023. The airline group reported 648 million available seat miles for the 12 months ending December 2023, and a 35% year-over-year increase in paying passenger miles for the fourth quarter of 2024. As of 2024, NYSE:ALK is the fifth-largest airline in North America by scheduled passengers carried .
Technical Analysis
NYSE:ALK entered the channel of my selected historical simple moving average ("regression to the mean"). Given the existing upward momentum and growth prospects, it's "likely" going to continue moving up after consolidating in the channel. However, dropping to the bottom of the channel (low $40's) is a possibility. As long as the fundamentals and outlook remain promising for the company, I suspect low oil and dropping interest rates will finally send airlines stock prices up.
Revenue and Earnings Growth into 2028
Continued growth after 2025: www.tradingview.com
Insiders
Warning: A LOT of selling and no buying.
openinsider.com
Action
The projected growth of NYSE:ALK makes sense as more people are flying. The great wealth transfer is putting money in the hands of the middle class... but the next few years may be the last run as we merge into a two-class system. So, while the stock may dip in 2025 as the economy slows (in certain segments), rising passenger numbers, lower oil, and dropping interest rates are likely to reward airlines. Thus, at $49.77, NYSE:ALK is a personal buy zone with near-term risk to the low $40's.
Targets into 2028
$68.00 (+36.6%)
$79.00 (+58.7%)
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Aegean: The cheapest airline in Europe?Aegean is flying high, but the stock remains grounded at -71.5% – The market values it at just 28.5% of its real worth: The cheapest airline in Europe?
Aegean: Time for the Market to Wake Up
We’ve said a lot about Aegean. About its stock going nowhere, about how it's been ignored by the market, about how it just refuses to move. Sure, some of that skepticism is understandable—geopolitical risk, a volatile global landscape, travel disruptions. But at some point, we need to look at the numbers.
Because this isn’t just another airline stock. Aegean is sitting on assets worth over €4 billion. And its current market cap? Just €1.14 billion.
Do the math: that's a 71.5% discount — the stock is trading at only 28.5% of what the company is worth on paper.
If that’s not undervalued, what is?
60 Aircraft, €4 Billion in Investment
This isn’t hype — it's hard investment. Aegean has committed to 60 Airbus A320/321neo aircraft by 2031, with a total fleet investment reaching $4 billion. The two newest additions, the A321neo XLRs, have a flight range of over 10 hours. That opens the door to long-haul destinations far beyond Europe — like India, the Maldives, Nairobi, and more.
In fact, direct flights to India are already scheduled to start in March 2026, ahead of the original plan. This isn’t about just growing the fleet — it’s a shift in scale, reach, and ambition.
Meanwhile, Aegean has already received 36 of the 60 aircraft. The buildout is real. And it’s happening now.
An Airline Investing in Itself
Aegean isn't just growing in the air — it’s building on the ground. It has launched maintenance and training facilities, is servicing third-party aircraft, and is investing heavily in talent and education.
From 1,878 employees in 2013 to nearly 4,000 today. Dozens of scholarships. A full ecosystem of aviation infrastructure is taking shape — one that positions Aegean not just as an airline, but as a regional aviation hub.
How is all of that still being missed on the board?
The Market Is Rallying – Aegean Is Not
While the Athens Stock Exchange hits 15-year highs, and large caps are breaking records, Aegean’s stock is standing still.
It’s one of the few big names that hasn’t made a move — and that makes it a prime candidate for a snap revaluation.
All it needs is a spark — a catalyst. A major deal. A re-rating. A surprise quarter. Something to jolt the market awake. And when that happens, it won’t be slow or gradual. It’ll be violent and vertical.
Geopolitics? Sure. But Everyone’s Facing It
Yes, global tensions are high. Wars, inflation, airspace closures, unpredictability. But every airline is in the same storm. What matters is how you build resilience. And Aegean has done that.
It emerged from the COVID crisis leaner, stronger, more focused. While others pulled back, Aegean doubled down. That’s not weakness — that’s conviction.
Why the Discount Still Exists
The short answer: the market hasn't connected the dots.
The new fleet hasn’t been fully priced in.
The strategic expansion hasn’t registered.
The infrastructure buildout hasn’t translated into market value.
Investors are still judging it on short-term P&Ls — not on what it’s quietly turning into.
Time for That to Change
It’s time for the market to take another look. To see the €4 billion in assets not as a future maybe — but as a real foundation for growth. To recognize the international pivot. To price in the hidden strength.
Aegean has the fundamentals. It has the vision. It has the operational edge.
What it doesn’t have — yet — is the recognition on the board.
But that’s coming. And when it comes, the move won’t be subtle.
Aegean is undervalued. Not just theoretically, but blatantly — with a 71.5% discount staring everyone in the face. The business is solid. The growth is real. The investments are in motion.
The market will catch up. The only question is: will you be in before it does?
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Fasten your seatbelts - China Southern Airlines to fly higherChina’s recent decision to grant visa-free entry to citizens of four Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain—from June 9, 2025, is expected to significantly boost travel demand between China and the Gulf region.
Key benefits for China Southern Airlines:
> Increased passenger traffic from GCC countries for tourism, business, and cultural exchange.
> Opportunity to expand direct flight routes to major Gulf cities, enhancing its international network.
> Stronger hub positioning for cities like Guangzhou and Urumqi as gateways for Middle East–Asia connectivity.
> Improved load factors and revenue from both inbound and outbound travel, especially during peak seasons.
This policy complements earlier agreements with the UAE and Qatar, which already enjoy 30-day visa-free access, effectively making all GCC nations visa-exempt for short-term visits to China
Basis review of monthly chart, price has potential to retest level of 5.70 which is 46% upside from current level of 3.90. Price needs to breach the overhead resistance of 4 and sustain above it for multiple days for the upside momentum to kick in. However, this view is negated if price breaks below 3.20 level.
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United Airlines Holdings, IncKey arguments in support of the idea.
International routes continue to experience high demand. While the U.S. domestic market is in a less favorable position, especially the low-cost carrier (LCC) segment, the company is benefiting from foreign tourists. However, it's worth noting that the U.S. Travel Association (USTA) reports the opposite: demand from U.S. citizens for domestic tourism remains strong. We expect the situation in domestic flights to improve by summer 2025. During the reporting period, United emphasized that its premium offerings continue to drive revenue growth, with demand from American tourists for international flights remaining stable.
Our 12-month forecast maintains the possibility of a positive surprise for the company. UAL’s pricing power is generally stronger than that of competitors, allowing the company to maintain a high level of revenue per passenger mile and profit margins.
Progress in tariff negotiations has given a strong boost to the stock. Currently, UAL shares are trading above their 200-day moving average with an RSI near overbought levels. However, if political progress continues, this momentum could persist. The 2-month target price for UAL is $97, and we recommend setting a stop loss at $72.8.
The 2-month target price for UAL is $97. We recommend setting a stop loss at $72. Long 
