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#BABA — Daddy is Back?NYSE:BABA
The weekly chart for the major Chinese marketplace is completing a monumental technical pattern, offering an exceptional risk-to-reward ratio for both medium- and long-term positions. The asset has entered a final redistribution phase in favor of the buyers, subtly hinting that Jack Ma has finally found a way to negotiate with the price action.
The global medium-term bottom for the asset is already established and fully validated by the market. A precise test of the 61.8% Fibonacci golden ratio at $91.78 demonstrated aggressive defense of this range by institutional funds. Any supply at this level was entirely absorbed, creating a concrete floor for the stock that could easily withstand even another round of regulatory crackdowns. The subsequent upward movement has since transitioned into a healthy local pullback.
Right now, a unique potential entry zone is shaping up at the confluence of two powerful independent technical factors: the historical 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at $105.72 from the previous major upward impulse, and the heavy weekly 200-period moving average acting as a crucial long-term trend filter.
From a market mechanics perspective, testing this major moving average in synergy with a 50% historical retracement is a textbook trigger for trend-following institutional players to reload their long positions. This exact junction is where the primary reaction and the start of a fresh upward cycle are expected to ignite, capable of sending the price soaring faster than an express delivery.
The multi-year volume profile displayed on the left side of the chart clearly shows that the current consolidation is taking place directly above a massive Point of Control volume shelf. Recent weekly candles are closing on noticeably diminishing volume, which serves as a critical marker of seller exhaustion. The bears have quite literally run out of inventory to dump, leaving the market devoid of free float willing to push the price lower through the moving average and this historical volume node.
The consensus strategy based on this setup implies an aggressive, staged accumulation within the highlighted zone, with profit-taking targets set at key historical resistance levels. Entering via limit orders is technically justified in the $105.70–$112.50 range, where current prices are highly attractive for initiating a position, while the bulk of the buying power is reserved for the precise moving average test.
A protective stop-loss should be placed upon a weekly candle close below $89.50, which marks a clear break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and invalidates the bullish thesis, forcing one into a long-term investor mindset accompanied by reading Lao Tzu quotes.
The first target for profit-taking sits at $137.00, representing the nearest mirror resistance and a test of the local descending channel, offering an upside potential of roughly 25–30%. The second and primary target is located at $181.00, marking a triumphant return to the upper boundary of the long-term capital distribution zone with a potential gain of over 60%.
The mathematical risk-to-reward ratio for this trade stands at an impressive 1 to 4.5. The presence of a rock-solid volume floor, a major moving average acting as dynamic support, and the previously confirmed reaction off the golden ratio make this ongoing correction an ideal entry point to ride the institutional wave.
This publication is for analytical purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Share your thoughts in the comments and don't forget to support the idea with a like if you found the analysis useful! Long 
KWEB: Chinese internet on the verge of a reversalAMEX:KWEB
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF tracks the largest Chinese internet companies trading on the Hong Kong Exchange, NASDAQ, and NYSE. Top holdings: Tencent 9.99%, Alibaba 8.08%, Meituan 8.05%, PDD Holdings 7.99%, NetEase 6.20%. Total 34 positions with AUM around $5.3–6.5 billion.
Technicals
On the daily chart, KWEB has formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, where the deep retracement to the right shoulder‘s base coincided with the most important technical event: a daily retest of the broken global downtrend line and the 50-day moving average. In the $26.50–$26.60 range, a strong support cluster has formed, confirmed by NYSE Arca trading volumes: after Thursday’s panic sell-off, on Friday the price stabilized and trading volume dropped by a third to 18.20 million shares, indicating a shortage of sellers. RSI and Stochastic have unloaded into deeply oversold territory, forming a bullish convergence for a rebound. The current price of $26.66 offers an ideal entry point. A daily close below the key level of $26.12 would completely invalidate the pattern. The main profit target is the strong mirror level at $30.74, where the upside potential is +15.3% and where the move will encounter resistance from the 200-day moving average.
Fundamental context
On August 20, Alibaba reported its June quarter results. Revenue grew 9% year-over-year to 268.95 billion yuan ($39.64 billion). GAAP net profit fell 76% - not due to an operational crisis, but because of a 75% increase in capital expenditures to $9.98 billion on AI infrastructure and data center construction. Non-GAAP net profit declined 38%. However, Alibaba Cloud revenue accelerated to 45% year-over-year, and the AI segment has shown triple-digit growth for twelve consecutive quarters. The market panicked over the headline profit drop, but this is an investment cycle, not a business breakdown.
On March 12, 2026, the National People‘s Congress officially approved China’s 15th Five-Year Plan for the period 2025–2030. The key priority is technological self-sufficiency and strategic sovereignty in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure. This is a direct structural tailwind for all companies in the KWEB basket. The entire ETF trades at a P/E of 13.85x - a significant discount to US peers with comparable growth rates.
This week‘s global macro catalyst was the US Treasury Department’s decision to double its long-term bond buyback volume from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation. This has already triggered a powerful Bitcoin rally above $77,600 (+22% in five days), the largest weekly inflow into BTC ETFs since October 2025 ($1.92 billion), and a wave of short liquidations totaling $3.5 billion. Expanded liquidity from the Treasury historically creates a tailwind for all risk assets - including the Chinese tech sector.
This publication is for analytical purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Share your thoughts in the comments and don't forget to support the idea with a like if you found the analysis useful! 
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Alibaba’s AI Bet Is Finally Showing Up in the NumbersAlibaba’s AI strategy is starting to show up in its financials. Revenue climbed 9% year over year to $39.6 billion, while Cloud growth accelerated to 45%, its fastest pace in more than five years. AI related product revenue has now posted triple digit growth for 12 straight quarters, and Cloud adjusted EBITA more than doubled as margins improved
The catch is that this growth is expensive, which has been a familiar theme across Big Tech this earnings season. Alibaba spent nearly $10 billion on CapEx during the quarter, up 75% year over year, while free cash flow swung to a $6.6 billion outflow. Adjusted EBITA also dropped 30% as the company continued pouring money into AI infrastructure, models, and applications
Still, this quarter gave investors the clearest look yet at what Alibaba might eventually get back from all that spending. Management is targeting roughly a three year payback period for its AI compute investments
Revenue Breakdown
🛒 China E commerce: $16.3 billion, down 8%
🛵 Quick Commerce: $7.9 billion, up 45%
🌍 International Commerce: $6.1 billion, up 1%
☁️ AI Cloud & Compute: $7.1 billion, up 45%
🤖 AI Apps & Others: $4.9 billion, up 3%
Alibaba also changed how it reports its businesses this quarter. Quick Commerce is now separated from traditional China e commerce, while Alibaba Cloud has absorbed the T Head chip division
The 8% decline in China E commerce reflects weaker marketplace activity and Alibaba continuing to step back from some of its direct sales operations
So while total revenue grew 9%, profitability took another hit. Operating margin fell to 6% from 14% a year earlier, while adjusted EBITA dropped 30% to $4 billion as the company continued investing heavily across AI and commerce
The bigger picture is pretty straightforward: Alibaba is getting its fastest growth from the businesses it is spending the most on, but the cost of building those businesses is showing up clearly in margins and cash flow. The company is sticking with its 380 billion yuan, or roughly $56 billion, three year AI investment plan
☁️ The AI Payback
Alibaba Cloud had its strongest growth in more than five years, with revenue jumping 45% year over year to $7.1 billion. AI related products now make up roughly 35% of external Cloud revenue, compared with 30% last quarter
More importantly, that growth is beginning to create operating leverage. Cloud adjusted EBITA surged 133% year over year to $830 million, pushing segment margins to around 12%. That is a pretty meaningful milestone considering how aggressively Alibaba is expanding capacity
Management says demand for AI compute is still greater than available supply, which helps explain the huge spending cycle. Most of the nearly $10 billion in quarterly CapEx went toward expanding cloud infrastructure
AI-related revenue was already running at roughly a $7.3 billion annualized pace in the June quarter, and management expects that figure to approach a $10 billion run rate this quarter
The big question is how quickly Alibaba can earn back the money it is putting into infrastructure. Management estimates that AI compute assets can currently break even in around three years, well within their expected useful life. That payback period could potentially fall toward 2.5 years as utilization increases, Cloud margins improve, and more workloads move onto Alibaba’s own chips
That explains why Alibaba is willing to sacrifice free cash flow today. If Cloud can maintain 40%+ growth while steadily improving margins, today’s CapEx could eventually support a much larger recurring revenue base instead of becoming a permanent drag on returns
🧠 Alibaba Wants to Own the Entire AI Stack
Alibaba has an interesting advantage because it does not need to monetize AI through a single product
The company is building control across multiple layers of the stack:
Silicon: T Head and its in house Zhenwu chips
Compute: Alibaba Cloud
Foundation models: Qwen and its open-weight ecosystem
Applications: QwenWork, enterprise agents, and consumer assistants
Owning more of the stack could improve the economics over time. T Head’s Zhenwu chips already serve more than 650 external customers across 20+ industries through Alibaba Cloud. As more workloads move onto Alibaba-designed silicon, the company could reduce its dependence on expensive third-party accelerators while capturing more of the value created by growing AI demand.
Qwen gives Alibaba another distribution advantage. The model family has passed 3 billion downloads, with more than 300,000 derivative models built on top of it. Alibaba can make the models widely available while monetizing the usage they generate through inference, storage, and other Cloud services
Its Model as a Service business has already surpassed 16 billion yuan, or roughly $2.4 billion, in annual recurring revenue
So the strategy is much bigger than simply selling chatbot subscriptions. Alibaba can use Qwen to attract developers, turn that adoption into recurring Cloud demand, and then use its own chips to protect margins. If it works, the company creates a flywheel across the entire AI stack
🤖 But AI Applications Are Still Burning Cash
Alibaba is now breaking out its AI Labs & Applications business, which sits within AI Apps and Other. That gives investors a better look at the economics of model development and consumer AI products while Cloud continues scaling.
The segment includes Alibaba’s model labs, the consumer Qwen business, and products such as QwenWork.
AI Labs & Applications revenue: $0.5 billion, up 16% year over year
Adjusted EBITA loss: roughly $2 billion, more than four times the loss a year earlier
The losses are largely the result of heavy spending on model training, product development, and user acquisition. Alibaba is still pushing aggressively for consumer and enterprise adoption while many of its AI products remain free or relatively cheap to use
Management expects those losses to narrow as model training becomes more efficient and commercialization ramps up
For now, though, the economics across Alibaba’s AI business look very different. Cloud is already showing operating leverage, while AI applications are still firmly in investment mode.
🛵 Quick Commerce Is Becoming Alibaba’s Second Growth Engine
Quick Commerce revenue jumped 45% year over year to $7.9 billion, making it larger than Cloud this quarter. The segment now includes Taobao Instant Commerce, Freshippo, and Tmall Supermarket’s on demand operations
On-demand delivery gives Alibaba a powerful frequency engine. Food delivery brings users back more often, while 30 minute delivery for groceries and everyday essentials can push order volumes far beyond traditional e commerce purchases
The economics are also starting to improve:
Taobao Instant Commerce improved its unit economics quarter over quarter while maintaining market share
Higher average order values and a larger mix of non food purchases are helping margins.
Alibaba expects non food orders to overtake food orders within the next fiscal year.
Quick Commerce is targeting overall profitability by FY29
Management believes Quick Commerce could eventually account for around 30% of platform GMV
If that happens, Alibaba’s current spending will have done more than simply defend its market share against Meituan and JD .com. It could create a much higher frequency layer on top of a mature China e commerce business
Alibaba’s AI spending is still hammering free cash flow, but this quarter finally provided some tangible evidence that the investment is starting to create economic value
The roughly three-year payback estimate for AI compute assets may be the most important number in the entire report. AI Labs is still deeply loss-making, and Quick Commerce continues to require heavy investment, but the equation could change quickly if Cloud maintains 40%+ growth while expanding margins
If that happens, today’s massive CapEx could eventually look less like reckless spending and more like smart capital allocation
And honestly, Alibaba is starting to look like it is following a playbook that should feel very familiar by now: spend billions first, explain the ROI later Long 
Alibaba: Compelling Upside PotentialBABA offers an attractive risk/reward profile, with a target price of $170, implying approximately 37% upside from the current level.
Company Overview
Alibaba Group (BABA) is one of China’s largest technology companies, with operations spanning e-commerce, cloud computing, digital services, and payments.
The company operates some of the world’s largest online marketplaces, including Alibaba.com in B2B commerce, Taobao in C2C commerce, and Tmall in B2C retail. Through its affiliate Ant Group, Alibaba is also closely associated with Alipay, one of the world’s largest digital payment platforms, serving more than 1 billion users.
BABA
Share price at the time of analysis: $124.40
Target price: $170.00
Upside potential: 36.7%
Investment Thesis
1. Cloud and AI Could Become a Major Growth Catalyst
Alibaba’s Cloud and AI business remains one of the most underappreciated potential catalysts for the stock.
Management has outlined an ambitious long-term growth strategy for the segment, targeting a significant increase in annual revenue alongside improving profitability. Although the market appears skeptical about the scale of these targets, the risk/reward profile is becoming increasingly attractive.
Global demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to expand rapidly. At the same time, tighter U.S. restrictions on access to advanced AI technologies could encourage greater adoption of Chinese AI models and infrastructure, particularly in markets where cost efficiency is a priority.
Chinese AI models are also steadily narrowing the performance gap with leading U.S. alternatives while often competing aggressively on price. This creates a credible opportunity for Alibaba Cloud to gain market share and could ultimately support a higher valuation for the company’s Cloud and AI operations.
2. Potential Policy Support for Chinese Consumption
A renewed slowdown in China’s economic growth could increase the likelihood of additional government measures aimed at stimulating domestic consumption.
Alibaba, as the operator of one of China’s leading e-commerce ecosystems, would be a direct beneficiary of stronger consumer spending.
Recent stimulus measures have increasingly focused on categories such as household appliances and consumer electronics, both of which are important segments within Alibaba’s e-commerce ecosystem.
Additional policy support could therefore support GMV growth, improve monetization, and lead to upward revisions to revenue and earnings expectations.
3. A More Rational Competitive Environment
Alibaba could also benefit from Beijing’s efforts to curb excessive competition across China’s e-commerce and food-delivery industries.
A shift away from aggressive price competition and costly promotional activity would support the profitability of Alibaba’s core businesses.
If competitive intensity continues to moderate, Alibaba could see higher margins, stronger free cash flow generation, and greater earnings visibility over the coming quarters.
Conclusion : We maintain a bullish view on BABA. Alibaba’s current valuation does not appear to fully reflect the potential earnings contribution from its Cloud and AI operations, a recovery in China’s consumer environment, or the prospect of more rational competition across its core markets.
With a target price of $170, BABA offers approximately 37% upside from the current level. A sustained recovery in Cloud growth and profitability could become a key catalyst for a broader re-rating of the stock. Long 
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BABA (1W): In-Depth Wave (5) Thesis & Capital Preservation Strat■ 1. Precision Technical & Elliott Wave Analysis
Alibaba Group (BABA) on the weekly timeframe has decisively broken out of its multi-year secular downtrend, displaying a classic 5-wave impulse pattern.
Origin (Point 0): The 2024 low near 58.01 USD marked the absolute bottom and the end of the multi-year macro correction.
Wave (1): Initial breakout rally reaching approx. 104.10 USD, breaching the major descending channel resistance.
Wave (2): A shallow retracement holding above 68.00–69.17 USD (Fib 0.236), signaling dwindling selling pressure.
Wave (3): A powerful extended impulse wave reaching the Fib 1.618 projection near 193.84 USD, driven by massive institutional accumulation.
Wave (4) (Current - 117.99 USD): A corrective consolidation retesting the 100.00–104.00 USD zone (Fib 0.786). This represents a robust confluent support zone combining the top of the former descending channel (Role Reversal) and Fibonacci confluence.
■ 2. Deep-Dive Micro & Business Fundamentals
Alibaba is undergoing a major structural transformation from a pure e-commerce giant into an AI-driven cloud ecosystem.
Cloud & AI Synergy: Powered by its proprietary "Tongyi Qwen" LLM family, Alibaba Cloud is capturing a dominant share of enterprise AI infrastructure demand in Asia.
International Digital Commerce (AIDC): Rapid expansion via AliExpress "Choice" and operational efficiency at Lazada are creating a resilient second growth driver.
Core Domestic Commerce: While competition remains fierce, AI-enhanced merchant monetisation tools are stabilizing Customer Management Revenue (CMR).
CapEx & Free Cash Flow: High capital expenditure in AI infrastructure currently compresses FCF, but builds a formidable moat for long-term monetization.
■ 3. Macro, FX, and Asset Class Interplay
China Macro & Policy Shift: Regulatory headwinds have subsided as Beijing prioritizes "New Quality Productive Forces." Tech platforms are essential infrastructure for national productivity.
FX Dynamics (USD/CNY): As an ADR traded in USD with CNY-denominated earnings, stabilization in the Yuan and Federal Reserve policy shifts act as catalysts for equity valuations.
Global Asset Allocation: BABA offers an attractive risk/reward profile for global funds seeking rotation into deeply undervalued tech leaders (KWEB / Hang Seng Tech Index).
■ 4. Strict Risk Management & Capital Preservation
In institutional-grade trading, capital preservation supersedes profit maximization. This setup is governed by strict risk parameters:
Invalidation Level (Stop Loss): 99.00 USD. A sustained weekly close below this level invalidates the Wave (4) support structure and the entire bullish thesis.
The Discipline of "No Position": If the price breaks below 99.00 USD, the risk must be cut immediately. When mathematical edge is lost, adopting a "no position" stance is the most logical and effective third strategy to protect capital from catastrophic drawdowns.
■ 5. Future Scenarios & Risk-Reward (RR) Matrix
Assuming an entry at the current price of 117.99 USD with a hard stop at 99.00 USD (Risk: 18.99 USD), the mathematical edge is structured as follows:
Target 1: 220.00 USD (Expected Reward: +102.01 USD / RR: 1:5.37)
Target 2: 280.00 USD (Expected Reward: +162.01 USD / RR: 1:8.53)
Long-Term Target: 408.57 USD (Expected Reward: +290.58 USD / RR: 1:15.30)
Primary Scenario: Confirmation of a Wave (4) bottom sets the stage for the Wave (5) expansion. All defined targets offer an exceptionally asymmetric RR profile exceeding 1:5.
Secondary Scenario: Prolonged range-bound movement between 100.00 and 120.00 USD to absorb macro noise. The capital preservation line (99.00 USD) remains strictly enforced.
Disclaimer: This post represents a single scenario based on subjective and objective chart analysis and does not constitute a solicitation or recommendation for any specific investment action. Please make investment decisions at your own risk. Long
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BABA — Long-Term Structure in Focus — Next Bullish Leg?For investors with a medium- to long-term perspective, BABA is approaching a technically interesting area worth monitoring.
From a broader perspective, price has been trading inside a large ascending broadening wedge for an extended period, respecting its structure and reacting consistently around its boundaries.
At the moment, price is testing the lower boundary of the wedge, which also aligns with an important support area that has previously generated multiple strong rejections.
This confluence creates an interesting decision zone where market participants may start watching for signs of renewed buying pressure.
From here, two scenarios become relevant:
→ Bullish scenario:
If price respects the current support and confirms rejection, we may see a recovery move toward the green resistance zone, creating the potential for the next bullish leg within the broader structure.
→ Bearish scenario:
If support fails to hold and price breaks below the current area with confirmation, the focus shifts toward the lower support & demand zone, which may become the next area of interest to reassess long-term opportunities.
At this stage, the focus is not on anticipating direction, but on observing whether buyers can defend this historically respected region.
For now, the key question is:
Will support trigger the next rebound, or is the market preparing for a deeper corrective phase?
This is a scenario-based analysis — not a prediction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It reflects personal market observations and does not constitute financial advice or a trading recommendation.
Rayan Nasser
#BABA #Stocks #Alibaba #TechnicalAnalysis #LongTermInvesting #PriceAction #Investing #StockMarket #RiskManagement Long 
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$BABA Investing $52B in AI. Trading at 18x Earnings = BUY!📊 Alibaba reported Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on March 19 and the market sold it off 7%. The headline was a 66% decline in GAAP net income. The reason matters more than the number.
Alibaba is deliberately sacrificing near-term profit to build China's AI infrastructure. The company committed approximately $53 billion in AI and cloud capex over three years and set a target of $100 billion in annual AI and cloud revenue within five years. The market is punishing the investment. The monthly chart is offering the entry.
Here is what the quarter actually showed. Cloud Intelligence Group revenue grew 36% to approximately $6.1 billion. AI-related product revenue delivered triple-digit growth for the tenth consecutive quarter.
Net cash position stands at $42.5 billion. Qwen AI models reached 203 million monthly active users by February 2026. T-Head proprietary GPU chips are in scaled mass production supporting over 400 enterprise customers. Quick Commerce revenue grew 56%.
The Alibaba Token Hub launched March 16, unifying AI models, cloud, and consumer apps. Morgan Stanley named BABA a top pick. Analyst consensus target is $197.86, implying 45% upside on a Strong Buy rating.
The geopolitical risk must be stated clearly. BABA can gap 5 to 10% on US-China headlines overnight. Pentagon list inclusion, chip export restrictions, tariff escalation, and delisting threats are permanent risks. Size positions accordingly.
The monthly chart shows a 10-year structure. After peaking above $300 in 2021, BABA retraced through a four-year bear market and is now at a major Fibonacci demand zone with the monthly SMA 20 curling upward.
🟢 Buy Zone 1 ($89.35 area)
0.236 Fibonacci retracement and multi-year horizontal support.
Stop: $9.76 below entry (10.923%) / $980 position
Qty: 2
Risk/Reward Ratio: 13.28
Target 1: +145% ($219.01 area / $1,265.70)
Target 2: +364% ($285.24 area / $1,458.55)
🟢 Buy Zone 2 ($61.47 area)
0.11 Fibonacci level and pre-breakout base from 2022 to 2024.
Stop: $9.76 below entry (15.878%) / $980 position
Qty: 2
Risk/Reward Ratio: 22.93
Target 1: +145% ($219.01 area / $1,265.70)
Target 2: +364% ($285.24 area / $1,458.55)
Key Levels:
🔑 Current Price: $122.41
🔑 Buy Zone 1: ~$89.35
🔑 Buy Zone 2: ~$61.47
🔑 52-Week Low: $95.73
🔑 52-Week High: $192.67
🔑 Net Cash: $42.5B
🔑 Cloud Revenue Growth: +36% YoY
🔑 AI Capex: ~$53B over 3 years
🔑 5-Year AI Revenue Target: $100B annually
🔑 Trailing PE: ~18x
🔑 Analyst Consensus Target: $197.86 (Strong Buy)
🎯 Target 1: $219.01 (+145% / $1,265.70)
🎯 Target 2: $285.24 (+364% / $1,458.55)
⚠️ Hard Stop Both Zones: $9.76 below entry
$53 billion in AI investment. $100 billion revenue target. 18x earnings. $42.5 billion in net cash. Monthly demand zone hit. Two entries mapped. Long 
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