S&P 500 hits 7,500: The number that silenced the hawks!S&P 500 has rebounded from its Independence Day holiday having produced the best quarter performance since 2020. The S&P 500 is up by 9.6% for the first half of 2026, the macro environment remains quite confusing coming into the second half of the year. The dovish Fed in June has created the right rate environment for the equity market bulls, and good NFP data on July 3rd confirmed that the US economy is not collapsing. However, the NFP report of June was much more concerning for the equity bulls, as non-farm payrolls growth of only 57K was significantly below expectations of 117K, and previous months’ data have been substantially revised lower..
The daily price depicts this indecision in detail. What the chart is really depicting is an index that has experienced a very powerful rebound off its lows of April 2026 Liberation Day and subsequently moved into a six-week consolidation just below its all-time high after making a very steep rise during May neither breaking down convincingly nor breaking out to new highs. The EMA configuration is technically still valid. The EMA 9 at 6,524 and the EMA 20 at 6,606 are both moving up and still sitting well under the current price level, thereby maintaining its bullish technical setup despite the lack of momentum in the short term. The MA Cross between the 9 and 21 is respectively another fairly wide distance from the current price, thereby indicating that the trend is undeniably not broken but only consolidating.
The RSI of 55.96 is clearly the best representation of what is happening right now.. It is just above the 50 mark, while its signal line is at 51.58, meaning there is buying interest, but there is not enough conviction in it. If an index is trading at 98.5% of its historical highs and the RSI does not show much strength beyond mid-50s, then this means that those buyers who want to drive prices higher have not shown up yet. The MACD is probably the most conservative indicator in this regard. The MACD line at −6.49 is below the signal line at −93.77, while the histogram is at −87.28, indicating a bearish setup that has persisted since late-May highs and has not changed significantly. While the histogram bars have gotten smaller, meaning that the trend is moving closer towards reversal, they are still red and have not crossed back into the positive territory. This means that technically the market is in consolidation in a downward momentum environment.
Trade recommendation
Direction : Long
Entry horizon : 7,350 – 7,440
Primary target : 7,621
Secondary target : 7,800
Stop loss : 6,956
Technical scenarios
All-time high breakout : The MACD histogram shifts from red to green, confirming lateJune's AI selloff was a shakeout. Backed by strong weekend sales from Foxconn and a 62% prediction market probability for an upward open, a Q2 beat-and-raise cycle kicked off by Samsung on Tuesday;could push the RSI above 60. Reclaiming the 7,621 all-time high on a daily close would trigger momentum flows toward JPMorgan's 7,800 target.
Range extension : The index remains stuck between 7,350 and 7,621, continuing its six-week consolidation. With the MACD near zero, the RSI between 50 and 60, and the AI sector rotating between rallies and profit-taking, the market is pausing. This neutral environment reflects a market waiting for Q2 earnings to provide a decisive direction.
BofA snapback : Bank of America's warning of speculative excess and a 7,100 year-end target materializes if Q2 earnings disappoint. This downside scenario risks a 13% correction from the all-time high, pushing the MACD toward June lows, dropping the RSI below 50, and testing the 6,510–6,634 MA Cross zone. The EMA 200 near 6,956 serves as the final structural defense for the long-term trend.
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UK100: Record highs, going nowhere fast?This video contains an analysis of the UK 100 as well as the trade setup that I have created on the 30 June , where the index is trading near all-time highs above 10,484 but without any conviction whether up or down. The MA Cross is right under price, the RSI is holding onto the neutral fifty line, and yet the MACD histogram is forming a formation that price action does not reveal on its own. In this video, you will get a comprehensive look at the FTSE 100 index in which I will explain to you the macroeconomic background, why the announcement of a positive ceasefire in Iran did not result in any significant move, and how I am planning to trade this from here. In this video, you can expect an analysis of the EMA formation, the MA Cross signal, and the three scenarios that I am watching out for as of July. 
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FTSE 100 near all-time highs: Consolidation before the breakout?UK 100 comes into its final day of June at a peculiar state as a benchmark in a very strong position with a year-to-date increase of 19.67% that has brought it close to its historical highs without having any sense of urgency either way. UK 100 closed down for a second consecutive session on Monday, reaching just below 10,484 amid a temporary end of hostilities between the US and Iran prior to peace talks, which is usually a bullish signal but which has not sparked a significant risk rally and only generated a very lukewarm response. It has been the corporate news that had an impact on individual stocks rather than the macro environment on the index itself. Specifically, British American Tobacco went down by more than 1% amid confirmation of plans to reduce the size of its total global staff by some 20%, while BT was up by 1.4% on account of a partnership deal with Verizon.
This is reflected in the price, which captures the same feeling of being on hold, not that of conviction. The reality behind the price action is the fact that the index is sitting very close to its own MA Cross short term, which is an indication itself. 9 and 21 MA Cross is sitting at 9,674 and 9,643 respectively, both meaningfully lower than current price, while the more immediate EMAs 9 and 20 are clustering each other at 9,667 and 9,663, level which was abandoned in May during its move up and has been consolidating above since then. Clustered short-term averages, rather than separated, is a language of chart of an equilibrium market. RSI speaks in a similar balance. It sits above neutral 50 level with its signal line only fractionally below it ;there is no spread between them, which indicates the absence of any momentum edge for either buyers or sellers.It is certainly a much different scenario than what took place in March, where the spread of the RSI increased considerably amid the sharp reversal lower in the index from its highs. In terms of the MACD, there is some positive information hiding beneath the surface. The MACD line is sitting above the signal line, making the overall pattern constructive, and the histogram has slowly been building small bars on the positive side following a stretch in April and May of negative bars.
Trade recommendation
Direction : Long
Entry horizon : 10,400 – 10,460 (pullback toward the EMA 9/20 cluster and recent consolidation floor)
Primary target : 10,650
Secondary target : 10,829
Stop loss : 10,124
Technical scenarios
Range resolution higher: Driven by progress in Iran peace talks, this bullish path requires a daily close above 10,650 and RSI rising past 58–60. Targets include 10,829 and the 11,000 psychological level.
Continued consolidation : As the most likely near-term outcome, the index should trade between the 10,400 support and 10,650 resistance. With neutral momentum, the market is waiting for clearer geopolitical or economic signals.
Bearish breakdown : A daily close below the 10,124 EMA 200 support would signal a structural shift. Considered the lowest-probability scenario, this would likely require failed ceasefire talks or a hawkish Bank of England surprise.
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Alt-season? Bitcoin BTC Dominance past cycles behavior analysis The best way to spot an altseason is looking at the Bitcoin BTC Dominance graph.
On this analysis, of the behavior of the Bitcoin BTC Dominance, I spotted in the graph , what happened on the last two cycles, 2017 and 2021, looking back to the 2013 BTC price top.
In the analysis I spotted three types of events:
All Time High (ATH)
Cycle Bottom
Attempts to break the past cycle's ATH
This brought me some interesting "coincidences" that leads to some insightful predictions.
My conclusion, so far, is that an All Time High breakout is a very important moment to the possible alt season beginning. One thing that should be considered is that the current cycle has some different characteristics as, probably in detail, all of them have. This means that maybe it could take some more time to the alt season start, as it did for the ATH be finally broken.
One thing I did'n mention in the video is that the BTC dominance has broken a theoretical downtrend line. That said, considering the end of the year calendar change that is a mentally important moment, I wouldn't be surprised if the altseason waits till January to pick up.
To be continued...
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The Power of Bitcoin: How MicroStrategy’s $MSTR Soared 1,620%MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) has experienced a massive surge in its stock price, climbing 15.9% on Friday's market trading and an additional 5% during Monday's premarket session. The stock broke out of a rectangular chart pattern, signaling a bullish move that could potentially lead to new all-time highs. This explosive growth is underpinned by the company’s strategic bet on Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), which has not only outpaced the cryptocurrency itself but also the broader market, including tech giants like Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), and the S&P 500. Let's dive into both the technical and fundamental factors driving this remarkable surge.
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Bet
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) adopted a Bitcoin-centered strategy in August 2020 under the leadership of its executive chairman, Michael Saylor. This strategic pivot has yielded extraordinary results, with the stock gaining 1,620% since then. In comparison, Bitcoin itself has gained 426% during the same period, while the S&P 500 and the “Magnificent 7” tech giants, including Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, have lagged with gains of 73% and 243%, respectively.
As of September 2024, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) holds 252,220 bitcoins, making it the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. In a recent acquisition, the company purchased 7,420 BTC for $458.2 million at an average price of $61,750 per coin, further solidifying its bullish stance on Bitcoin.
Michael Saylor has made it clear that he believes Bitcoin is the ultimate asset for long-term wealth generation. His famous quote, “The only thing better than bitcoin is more bitcoin,” encapsulates the company’s philosophy. This bold strategy has clearly paid off, as NASDAQ:MSTR has consistently outperformed both the broader market and even some of the most successful tech companies.
Bitcoin Outperformance & the Broader Market
What makes MicroStrategy's performance particularly notable is its stark outperformance compared to Bitcoin and other major stocks. For example, while Bitcoin’s price has increased 426% since 2020, MicroStrategy’s stock price has skyrocketed 1,620%, leveraging the company's heavy exposure to Bitcoin as a strategic asset. This outperformance can also be attributed to the broader market sentiment toward Bitcoin, which has attracted institutional investors and long-term holders like MicroStrategy. As the company continues to acquire more BTC, it positions itself as a de facto Bitcoin ETF in the eyes of traditional market participants.
In addition, NASDAQ:MSTR has far outpaced Nvidia’s impressive 1,107% increase and Arista Networks' 650% rise over the same period. These gains have positioned MicroStrategy as one of the most successful stocks in the past three years.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:MSTR ) has just broken out of a rectangular chart pattern, a significant bullish signal. A rectangle formation is characterized by a period of price consolidation between clearly defined horizontal support and resistance levels. In this case, NASDAQ:MSTR had been trading within a range, reflecting indecision among traders.
However, Friday’s surge confirmed a breakout above the ceiling of the rectangular pattern, signaling that the bulls have regained control. This breakout is particularly significant because it often precedes further upward movement, potentially setting the stage for a new high.
The Bullish Rectangle Pattern Explained
A rectangle formation typically occurs after an asset experiences an uptrend, which then consolidates as traders weigh the next move. In the case of NASDAQ:MSTR , the stock has been consolidating within a tight range as investors digested the company’s continued Bitcoin purchases and broader market conditions. With the breakout above the rectangle, it suggests that traders are once again optimistic, and the stock may be heading toward further gains.
As of Monday morning’s premarket session, NASDAQ:MSTR is up 5%, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Another key technical indicator supporting NASDAQ:MSTR ’s bullish outlook is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently at 76.76. Typically, an RSI above 70 indicates that an asset is overbought, and caution is advised. However, during periods of strong momentum, stocks can remain overbought for extended periods, particularly during significant bullish trends.
Moreover, the stock is exhibiting a gap-up pattern in the price chart, which is a strong indicator of momentum. Gap-ups occur when the price of an asset opens significantly higher than its previous close, often indicating a shift in sentiment or the release of market-moving news. In NASDAQ:MSTR 's case, the gap-up is driven by its breakout from the rectangle pattern, as well as renewed enthusiasm for Bitcoin.
Whale Accumulation and Bitcoin’s Influence
MicroStrategy’s stock is not just benefiting from technical patterns; the underlying Bitcoin market is also providing fundamental support. Recent data shows that whale activity has intensified around Bitcoin, with large holders accumulating 2.07 billion DOGE in a single week. While this specific data pertains to Dogecoin, it underscores a broader trend of renewed interest in cryptocurrencies by large investors, which often correlates with upward price movements in both the crypto market and crypto-exposed stocks like MicroStrategy.
Conclusion:
MicroStrategy’s breakout from the rectangular pattern, combined with its solid fundamental footing in Bitcoin, suggests that the stock could be setting a course for new highs. The company’s Bitcoin strategy has proven to be a game-changer, with the stock significantly outperforming both Bitcoin and the broader market since 2020.
As Bitcoin continues to grow in institutional acceptance and more companies adopt digital assets as part of their strategies, MicroStrategy’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact. Investors will be keenly watching for the next moves in both Bitcoin and NASDAQ:MSTR , as the stock could continue to serve as a leading indicator of market sentiment around the world’s largest cryptocurrency. 
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CERA SANITARYWARE is At ALL TIME HIGH with Positive NumbersNSE:CERA
Established market position in the sanitaryware segment and diversified revenue profile: Cera has a track record of nearly three decades, strong brand image and a large retail network in the sanitaryware industry. It is one of the leading players in this segment, which has been one of the largest revenue contributors over the years, accounting for around 47% of turnover in fiscal 2024.
Over the past few years, Cera has been leveraging its strong market position in the domestic sanitaryware industry by venturing into related business segments, such as faucets, tiles and wellness and allied products, thus becoming a complete bathroom solutions provider. Successful diversification into related businesses has helped lower dependence on the sanitaryware business, besides improving the efficiency of the distribution network.
Intense competition and volatile demand from the real estate sector led to sluggish revenue growth in fiscal 2024. However, with improving demand prospects expected and demand from real estate to remain healthy with projects reaching completion over the next 2-3 years, revenue in the sanitaryware segment is likely to see healthy growth over the medium term. Sanitaryware, faucetware, tiles and other products accounted for 47%, 36%, 10% and 7%, respectively, of the company’s turnover in fiscal 2024. Also, the company has presence across various domestic markets in south, east, north and west, providing adequate geographical diversity.
Healthy financial risk profile: Networth was healthy at Rs 1,358 crore and gearing low at 0.02 time as on March 31, 2024. Debt protection metrics are expected to remain strong, in the absence of large, debt-funded capex and healthy operating performance. Cash accrual is expected at ~Rs 180-230 crore per annum and will comfortably fund the capex plans in fiscals 2025 and 2026 and incremental working capital requirement. Hence, reliance on debt is expected to be low, sustaining strong debt metrics over the medium term.
Company is almost debt free.
Company has been maintaining a healthy dividend payout of 31.4%.
ZERO DEBT COMPANY
Cash and Cash Equivalents
of Rs. 828 crore; primarily
liquid investments.
• No Contingent Liabilities for
Joint Ventures
POSITIVE FREE CASH FLOW EVERY YEAR
Consistent cash generation each year
• Annual Capex requirement < Free Cash flow
generation.
• Increasing gap between annual cash flow generation
less dividend outflow and capex.
• Regularly paid dividends for the last 30 years +
AGGRESSIVE FOCUS ON CAPEX
Fixed Asset turnover of ~5.6x.
• Uniform organization-wide policy to
monitor receivables – credit not used
to drive revenues.
• ERP automatically shuts down fresh
supplies to dealers / customers with
dues in excess of 45-60 days
Multilayered Marketing Infrastructure.
⚫ Enhances retail experiences, retailer owned
⚫ Currently 1,067 Cera Style Centre’s (CSC’s)
operational
⚫ Over 1,400 CSCs planned in the next 3-4 years
⚫ Minimum size of showroom ranges between 100 sq.
ft. - 500 sq. ft.
Multilayered Marketing Infrastructure
⚫ 11 CERA Style Studios (CSS): Ahmedabad / Mumbai /
Bengaluru / Kolkata / Cochin / Hyderabad / Trivendrum
/ Morbi / Kadi / Mohali & Lucknow (Upcoming)
⚫ Discerning customers including influencer's can touch
and feel products
⚫ No sales orientation / pressure
⚫ The average size these company owned showroom are
approx. 7,000 sq.ft.
⚫ With more than 14,000 sq.ft. of display, Hyderabad CSS is
the largest company showroom in this industry
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