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BTC ETH SOL MSTR Bullish Consolidation (Closer Look)I want to post this follow-up on the Hourly time-frame to my earlier post on the Daily time-frame so you can see how BTC SOL have bounced strongly from their initial two REVERSAL levels and are pushing to close the day ABOVE, which is VERY BULLISH. ETH is a bit far from crossing above its two REVERSAL LEVELs but you can see it bounced off strongly from a CHANNEL LINE. Final confirmation will be a GREEN close tomorrow Tuesday... Good luck!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by alejandroscotti
LULU LEMON IS LEAVING NASDAQ GET READY Options Analysis: NASDAQ 100 Index ReconstitutionYour thought process on seeking out options opportunities based on the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX) reconstitution is a sound strategy, as index rebalances often create temporary, forced buying and selling pressure that can move stock prices.Lululemon (1 NASDAQ:LULU $) is being removed from the NDX (the index that the popular 2 NASDAQ:QQQ $ ETF tracks) as part of the annual rebalancing, which is effective prior to the market open on Monday, December 22, 2025.3 NASDAQ:LULU $ is being removed along with five other stocks (Biogen, CDW, GlobalFoundries, ON Semiconductor, and The Trade Desk), and six new companies are being added.4 This reconstitution event is a major catalyst.Companies Joining the Nasdaq-100 IndexThe six companies being added to the NDX are the primary focus for potential Call options, as index-tracking funds (5 NASDAQ:QQQ $) will be forced to buy shares of these companies to align their portfolios before the effective date (December 22nd).6 This demand pressure can push the stock price higher leading up to the change.The six additions are:Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.7 ( NASDAQ:ALNY $) - A biopharmaceutical company focused on RNA interference therapeutics.Ferrovial SE (8 NASDAQ:FER $) - A Spanish multinational construction and infrastructure company.9Insmed Incorporated (10 NASDAQ:INSM $) - A biopharmaceutical company targeting rare diseases.11Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (12 NASDAQ:MPWR $) - A high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductor company.13Seagate Technology Holdings plc (14 NASDAQ:STX $) - A data storage company, benefiting from the recent AI/data boom.15Western Digital Corp. (16 NASDAQ:WDC $) - A data storage company, also a significant beneficiary of the AI/data boom.17Two Potential Call Candidates: Storage StocksBased on recent market trends and the forced buying effect, the two data storage companies, Seagate ( NASDAQ:STX $) and Western Digital ( NASDAQ:WDC $), are compelling candidates for a Call option strategy.Rationale: Both companies are riding the significant tailwind of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data center boom, which drives massive demand for high-capacity storage.18 Their inclusion in the NDX adds a strong technical catalyst (forced buying) to an already favorable fundamental narrative.Strategy: Consider Near-Term Call Options with an expiration date shortly after the December 22nd effective date (e.g., contracts expiring in late December or early January). The goal is to capture the price appreciation driven by institutional buying.Risk: Any sudden market correction or negative news specific to the sector could temper the index-driven rally.Companies Exiting the Nasdaq-100 IndexCompanies being removed from the NDX are the focus for potential Put options, as index-tracking funds will be forced to sell their shares of these companies before the effective date.The Lululemon ( NASDAQ:LULU $) Put ThesisWhile 19 NASDAQ:LULU $ is being removed, the price action is complex due to a recent change in CEO leadership, which the market often views as a potential positive catalyst for a turnaround.20Bearish Technical Catalyst (Put): Index funds must liquidate their holdings of NASDAQ:LULU $. This forced selling should apply significant downward pressure on the stock price in the short term leading up to December 22nd.Bullish Fundamental Counter-Catalyst: The recent announcement of the CEO's departure was met with an initial rally, suggesting long-term investors are optimistic about a strategic reset.21Strategy: A Put option strategy must focus purely on the immediate, short-term selling pressure from index rebalancing.Near-Term Put Options with an expiration around the Dec 22nd transition date (or slightly after) would be appropriate.Risk: The long-term bullish sentiment around the new leadership could overwhelm the short-term index-related selling pressure, leading to the Put expiring worthless.⚠️ Critical Disclaimer: Options and Index ReconstitutionAs always, do your own research. Trading options based on index rebalancing is a speculative strategy. The market often front-runs (or prices in) the index changes well before the official date. While index buying/selling is a known catalyst, market volatility can quickly negate the technical impact of a rebalance.The video below discusses how the Nasdaq 100 reconstitution can create trading opportunities.You can learn more about how index fund rebalancing affects stock prices by watching Index Rebalancing: What Happens to Stock Prices?.
NASDAQ:STXLong
by Stewnomics
The Aussie on the brink: annual highs under siegeFollowing the bullish impulse initiated at the end of November, the Aussie is now challenging its annual highs. With the latest monetary policy decisions largely digested and implied volatility declining, the market is refocusing on microstructure and flows. Fundamental Analysis The RBA’s latest hold, the third in a row, confirmed a “hawkish hold” bias that continues to support the Australian dollar. The central bank acknowledges that inflation is proving broader than initially expected and remains alert to second-round risks, keeping real rate expectations elevated for Australia. The RBA Rate Tracker, which measures the implied probability of a rate change, is also starting to price in a moderate chance of a hike in 2026. On the US side, while the official message remains cautious, the market has mainly noted the inability of US yields to re-establish a sustained upward trend. This is compounded by a well-established seasonal factor, as December has historically been a period of USD underperformance, driven by hedging flows and profit repatriation. The broader global backdrop is also supportive for the AUD given its strong correlation with commodities, with copper and gold trading at historically high levels. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, the daily chart of 6AH6 shows a clear structure of higher lows and higher highs since the November trough. Prices are trading above key moving averages, notably the 55-day average, which is acting as dynamic support. The current consolidation is taking place above former value areas, a typical feature of a market accepting higher prices rather than one in distribution. Volume analysis provides additional insight. Upward phases have been accompanied by rising volumes, while recent pullbacks have occurred on more moderate volume. This suggests an absence of aggressive selling pressure. The visible volume profile on the chart shows a high concentration of trading activity around 0.6550–0.6600, corresponding to a former equilibrium now located below the market. Since the bullish recovery, price has moved into a low-volume area above, indicating that the market is exploring levels with limited historical trading. The current zone around 0.6650–0.6670 appears more like a pause than a definitive resistance. As long as price remains above the core of the volume profile, probabilities favor continuation or, at a minimum, a high-level consolidation. Sentiment Analysis Retail sentiment on spot AUD/USD is particularly skewed, with retail traders heavily net short. Some platforms even show ratios exceeding 80% or 90% short positions. This configuration is typical of market phases where retail participants attempt to anticipate a top based on psychological levels or visible resistance, without waiting for a confirmed reversal signal. From a contrarian perspective, this positioning represents potential fuel for further upside. It indicates that the market is not overloaded with fragile speculative longs, but instead crowded with sellers who may be forced to cover if key levels are broken. On the institutional side, no major desks appear to be arguing for an immediate, structural bearish reversal in AUD/USD. Options Analysis In the options space, calls are more in demand and more expensive, confirming a dominant short-term bullish bias and a market that is primarily expecting extension. The options heatmap also shows large clusters of call options at the 0.6700 and 0.6750 strikes. In the event of an approach to or break above these levels, call sellers could find themselves short gamma and forced to hedge via futures buying, thereby amplifying the bullish move. Trade Idea (6AH6) With a lighter news calendar and market liquidity gradually declining, there is limited likelihood of sufficient catalysts to reverse the trend before year-end. In this context, a directional bullish strategy remains the most coherent, at least over the next two weeks. Entry zone: on pullbacks toward 0.6620–0.6630 Stop loss: below the 55-day average, currently around 0.6540 Primary target: 0.6750 Extended target: 0.6850 in the event of an options-driven squeeze Final Thoughts Even though the AUD has shown some hesitation over the past few sessions, signals continue to converge toward an intact bullish potential. Fundamentals are supportive, technical analysis points to acceptance of higher prices, retail sentiment is heavily contrarian, and options positioning highlights the risk of a squeeze above well-identified levels. In this type of environment, the market’s ability to force weak hands out should not be underestimated, particularly during periods of lower liquidity. As long as the structure remains intact, a bullish extension beyond the annual highs remains the most coherent scenario into year-end, ahead of a likely consolidation phase in early 2026. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6A1!Long
by satelysfx
DXY – Technical & Fundamental OutlookTechnical: The DXY continues to trade with a clear bearish bias after being rejected from the 100.00–100.30 supply zone. Price is making lower highs and lower lows, holding below prior resistance, which now acts as a strong cap. As long as the index remains below 99.00–99.50, downside pressure dominates, with room toward the 98.00 area. Any rebound looks corrective unless there is a clean recovery above 100.00. Fundamental: The dollar remains pressured by expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve stance, with markets pricing in slower economic momentum and potential rate cuts ahead. Softer US macro data and easing inflation expectations continue to weigh on USD demand, while risk assets gain relative strength. Near-term DXY direction will be driven by incoming US data and Fed communication, but the broader bias stays bearish unless fundamentals shift materially.
TVC:DXY
by FernandoValdiviezo1
XAUUSD 15M - Scalp & Swing Zoneswww.traMonitoring key intraday levels on XAUUSD (15-min chart). Defined Sell Zones for scalping (high/medium risk) above 4321 and a primary Buy Zone (medium risk) near 4278. Price action and confluence at these levels will dictate scalp bias. Always confirm with your own analysis. #XAUUSD #Gold #ForexTrading #DayTrading #Scalping #SupportAndResistance #RiskManagement #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Intraday Risk Disclosure: DISCLAIMER: This chart and its identified levels are for educational and informational purposes only, not financial advice. Trading forex and CFDs carries a high risk of loss. The "High risk" and "Medium risk" labels are subjective assessments within this specific setup and do not diminish the substantial risk inherent in all leveraged trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should only trade with capital you can afford to lose and seek independent financial advice if needed.dingview.com/x/QzbBl2ru/ OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Myshare_finance1
Are we forming a top on $DB?Those of you who've joined my Monday Market Update over the years will know that I don't have the highest regard for Deutsche Bank. I'll save my reasons for another day (over a beer). Regardless of my views and bias ultimately were only interested in whether it provides us with an opportunity, and DB has been in a good weekly trend for the last 2 years, having traded from $10 up to $37 over that period. The question is: has the trend run its course? The price action over the last 3 months has been inconsistent. I would call this a Stage 3 price action (with a nod to Stan Weinstein). On one side we have a broadening formation building, and then on another we have a double top over the last month or so. What I note is that the weekly 20 Period Moving Average (Blue) has provided excellent dynamic support over the last year so. Will that continue? If it does then I'd want to see us bounce and move to new highs. However if it fails and the 20 flips then I'd see us moving down to at least $30 (which would then be running into the weekly 50 period Moving Average).
NYSE:DBShort
by FXTraderPaul
After its highest weekly close can #DAL hold above $70?I've mentioned before on my Monday Market Updates that I have a soft spot for Delta Air Lines. Back in 1991, when I was 18, I worked in a summer camp in upper-state New York. After working there I paid $250 for a 30 day unlimited mileage ticket around CONUS with Delta Air Lines. It was a great way for me to see the country (along with Canada and Mexico). Anyway, these days I'm more interested in how aviation stocks are doing, and despite all the gloom and doom about the economy, and the world in general, DAL's share price has performed well the last few months. I'm always interested to see how price responds to previous highs and lows. the last time that #DAL visited the $70 region the price rolled over and collapsed by half (admittedly that was due to the Trump Tariff Tantrum).We've grinded back to that level and last week was DAL's highest weekly close. Can it break resistance at $70? My bullish view would want to see it close and hold about $70 and turn it into support. Can it do that?
NYSE:DALLong
by FXTraderPaul
Stock - C.H. Robinson Worldwide - Short SetupC.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) – Short Setup Technical Analysis CHRW is currently trading extended above the 3rd Anchored VWAP band, signaling a clear price–value dislocation and elevated risk of mean reversion. The recent advance appears increasingly inefficient, with price moving too far away from its volume-weighted equilibrium. This extension coincides with the formation of a Deep Crab harmonic pattern, marking a classic terminal structure within the prevailing move. Such patterns frequently appear near exhaustion points, where upside momentum deteriorates and late buyers become vulnerable. From a tactical standpoint, this environment favors a mean reversion short setup rather than trend continuation. A rejection from the upper VWAP band, or loss of intraday structure, would confirm distribution and increase the probability of a rotation back toward the Anchored VWAP and prior value area. Bias: Short on rejection above the 3rd Anchored VWAP band Target: Mean reversion toward Anchored VWAP Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above the upper VWAP band Context: Deep Crab completion + VWAP band extension = high-quality short opportunity
NASDAQ:CHRWShort
by phillipp
ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector : 2,928.60 🏷 ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. Dated: 10.12.2025 🏷 2,928.60 — Price not yet reached at time of publication 🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 5 🏷 Screenshot 🏷 Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations. The Architect BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
Short
by Bolzen_Market_Institute
ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. 2945.79🏷 ETH: Price Slice. Capital Sector. Dated: 11.12.2025 🏷 2945.79 — Price not yet reached at time of publication 🏷 BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 8 🏷 Screenshot BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant does not merely record price—it reveals the Index of Capital Strength and Commitment, woven from the will of institutional flows and intentions concealed behind the digital veils of the market. Soon, the Index of Priority in Expended Energy Production will be unveiled—a metric born in the depths of mining, where every watt transforms into intention, and every intention crystallizes into price. This index will indicate the vector of priority pressure, drawing near to the very core of the order of price execution. This is the measure of a new epoch. Soon, the world will witness a demonstration of all prices—not as arbitrary marks on a chart, but as reflections of the energy potential invested in their very genesis. The Vertical Chart, designed by me, shall become a mirror of this new reality—and it will be revealed exclusively to those who stand with me, not behind the door. For you, only one priority is unveiled today. And that is no small thing. Think. The age of the transitional world has begun. Some remain behind the door. Others walk with me. All things in their time. 🏷 Interactive Reference Guide: BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant 🏷 P.S. English is not my native language — I offer no apologies for stylistic imperfections. What you see here is not a post. It is a demonstration of another level of preparation: the symbiosis of human intuition and algorithmic precision. Mathematics and aggressive market analysis — against the machine of liquidations. The Architect BPC — The Bolzen Price Covenant
Short
by Bolzen_Market_Institute
Axis Bank | Gann Square of 9 Case Study (21 Oct 2024)This idea presents a chart-based case study showing how price respected a key geometric level derived from the Gann Square of 9 during an intraday session. On 21 October 2024, Axis Bank opened with volatility and began declining from its first major pivot. Using Gann’s price–angle principle, the session high was treated as the 0° reference point. From this reference, two important intraday levels were identified using Square of 9 calculations: • 1214 → 0° reference • 1197 → 45° angle level As per classical Gann observations, when price approaches a 45° level within the active session, it often acts as a point of balance between time and price. In this case, Axis Bank reached the 1197 level well before the late-session time window, where price showed a clear reaction and short-term upside movement from that zone. 🔍 Key Observations from This Study • Establish a clear 0° reference from a significant intraday pivot • Derive angle-based levels using Square of 9 logic • Observe time alignment along with price levels • Geometric levels can help anticipate logical reaction zones, rather than guessing This example demonstrates how price, time, and geometry can be studied together to understand intraday behavior in a structured manner. Note: This post is shared purely for educational and analytical discussion of chart behavior. It is not a trade recommendation or financial advice.
NSE:AXISBANKEducation
by WD_Gann_Theory
ETHUSD Potential Long After Liquidity Sweep (1H)ETH swept sell-side liquidity and showed a strong reaction from demand. Price is currently setting up for a potential bullish continuation if structure holds. 🔹 Entry: 2,954.74 🔹 Stop Loss: 2,891.06 🔹 Take Profit: 3,327.00 📊 Risk / Reward: ~1:5.85 📈 Target Move: +12.59% 📌 Confluences: Sell-side liquidity sweep Strong displacement from demand Clear invalidation level Clean RR profile ⚠️ Setup invalidated if price closes below 2,891.06. 🤡 Disclaimer: Not financial advice. I’m just a random person on the internet drawing colorful boxes on a chart. Trade at your own risk.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by EVOLUTIO
2
Technical Analysis WeeklyGermany 40 is trending higher within its ongoing neutral range, trading at 24,309, above its VWAP of 23,835. The RSI at 61.7 indicates strong momentum. Support is at 23,201, with resistance at 24,469. Wall Street continues in a bullish trend and is retesting all time highs after a breakout following its recent pullback, trading at 48,665, above its VWAP of 47,672. The RSI at 64.3 indicates strong momentum. Support is at 46,403, with resistance at 48,942. UK 100 is in a bullish trend, currently testing the upper bounds of its corrective phase, trading at 9,737, above its VWAP of 9,671. The RSI at 56.8 indicates moderate momentum. Support is at 9,574, with resistance at 9,768. GBP/USD is moving back higher within its sideways range, trading at 1.3387, above its VWAP of 1.3275. The RSI at 64.9 indicates strong momentum. Support is at 1.3091, with resistance at 1.3459. EUR/USD is likewise in a bullish near term trend within a broader range, trading at 1.1748, above its VWAP of 1.1633. The RSI at 71.7 indicates strong momentum. Support is at 1.1495, with resistance at 1.1771. USD/JPY is in a correction of its bearish trend, currently in a correction phase, trading at 154.97, below its VWAP of 155.84. The RSI at 46.3 indicates subdued momentum. Support is at 154.74, with resistance at 156.95. Gold is attempting an upside breakout, currently in a breakout phase, trading at 4,340, above its VWAP of 4,204. The RSI at 74.2 indicates strong momentum. Support is at 4,081, with resistance at 4,340. Brent Crude Oil appears to be breaking lower, currently testing the lower bounds of its recent range, trading at 6,235, below its VWAP of 6,067. The RSI at 37.2 indicates more intensely bearish momentum. Support is at 6,235, with resistance at 6,408.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex Trading
BABA 2026 SETUP: MACRO TURNS, CHINA RE-RATES, VALUE UNLOCKINGTicker: NYSE:BABA Timeframe: 6–18 months Bias: Bullish continuation into 2026 🌍 Latest Macro Catalysts (Why the Wind Is Shifting) China Policy Put Is Back (Liquidity + Growth) PBOC has clearly pivoted toward growth stabilization: rate cuts, reserve-ratio reductions, and targeted liquidity for consumption and tech. Beijing cannot afford prolonged equity depression in 2025–26 while managing employment and social stability. Alibaba is a direct beneficiary of consumption + SME credit expansion. (IMF, 2024; PBOC policy communiqués, 2024) China Valuation Re-rating vs US Tech Crowding US mega-cap tech trades at historically stretched multiples. China large-caps trade near multi-decade valuation discounts (BABA forward P/E materially below global peers). Global allocators are rotating from “over-owned growth” into under-owned cash-flow machines. (MSCI, Goldman Sachs Asia Strategy Notes, 2024) Regulatory Overhang Has Peaked Platform regulation is now normalized, not punitive. Policy language has shifted from “control” → “support private enterprise.” This removes the valuation cap that suppressed BABA for years. (CSRC statements; State Council briefings, 2024) 🧠 Company-Specific Bull Case (Why BABA, Not Just China) Free Cash Flow Machine Strong FCF + buybacks = structural downside support. Balance sheet strength allows BABA to survive macro noise better than peers. Cloud + AI Optionality Alibaba Cloud remains the backbone of China’s AI infrastructure. AI monetization is not fully priced in. Any stabilization in cloud margins = multiple expansion trigger. Core Commerce Bottoming Domestic consumption is troughing, not collapsing. Even modest demand recovery creates operating leverage. 📊 Technical + Structural Justification (Aligned With Your Chart) Price compressing near equilibrium / demand zone → volatility contraction. Descending structure suggests spring-like pressure, not distribution. RSI holding mid-range → bearish momentum exhausted. Long-term fibs point to reversion toward 182 → 192 → 226 if structure resolves higher. This is accumulation behavior, not capitulation. 🎯 2026 Thesis (Simple, Probabilistic, Asymmetric) Downside: Limited by cash flow, buybacks, and policy support. Upside: Policy + valuation + sentiment re-rating. Risk-Reward: Asymmetric in favor of longs over a 6–18 month horizon. 🧩 Final Take BABA doesn’t need a miracle. It just needs macro stabilization + time. When liquidity turns and fear fades, cheap giants move first. 📈 High-probability re-rating candidate for 2026. Hashtags (TradingView-style): #BABA #ChinaEquities #MacroShift #ValueRotation #AIInfrastructure #LongTermSetup #WaverVanir #VolanX
NYSE:BABALong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
This Week’s US Data (15-20 Dec): Stocks & Bitcoin1. Jobs report (NFP, unemployment, wages) 👷‍♂️ Very good / hawkish for Fed NFP: > 250k new jobs. Unemployment rate: ≤ 4.0%. Average hourly earnings YoY: ≥ 4.0%. Typical read: economy still strong, “higher for longer” rates; can pressure stocks short term and is usually negative for BTC as real yields/UST bid up.​ Clearly bad / dovish for Fed NFP: < 100k new jobs, or negative revision cluster. Unemployment rate: ≥ 4.4–4.5%. Wage growth YoY: ≤ 3.5%. Typical read: cooling labor market, more cuts priced; generally supportive for equities and often bullish BTC via liquidity/risk-on narrative.​ 2. Retail sales 🛒 Good demand signal Headline/control retail sales: ≥ +0.5% MoM and broad-based. Read: consumer still spending, growth backdrop OK; modestly positive for cyclicals but can keep the Fed cautious, mixed for BTC.​ Weak demand signal Headline/control retail sales: ≤ 0.0% MoM or negative, especially if previous month revised down. Read: demand softening, recession whispers; increases cut odds, usually net bullish indices if not catastrophic, mildly bullish BTC.​ 3. CPI / core CPI 🔥 Too hot Headline CPI YoY: > 3.0–3.2%. Core CPI YoY: > 3.0% or core monthly ≥ 0.3–0.4%. Read: disinflation stalling; markets re‑price fewer cuts, UST yields pop, typically negative for high‑beta stocks and BTC.​ Comfortably cool Headline CPI YoY: ≤ 2.7–2.8%. Core CPI YoY: ≤ 2.7–2.8%, monthly core around 0.2%. Read: inflation close to “mission accomplished”; supportive for risk assets and usually good for BTC as real yields drift lower.​ 4. Core PCE 🔥 Hawkish Core PCE YoY: ≥ 3.0% or re‑accelerating vs prior print. Read: Fed’s preferred gauge still too high; bearish for duration, a headwind for growth stocks and BTC.​ Conclusion for this week: markets are set up for reaction, not trend-building, and thin year-end liquidity means moves can overshoot in both directions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by FlorinCharts
1