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USD/MXN Analysis (330 words) The current movement of USD/MXN isUSD/MXN Analysis (330 words) The current movement of USD/MXN is defined by a fierce contest between global monetary policy and Mexico's unique domestic strengths. **Broad USD strength** serves as the core upward catalyst, as persistent market expectations for delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts continue to bolster the dollar, exerting generalized pressure on the MXN. Nevertheless, the Mexican peso has demonstrated notable resilience, emerging as an outperformer among emerging market currencies. Its strength stems primarily from **exceptionally high interest rates (currently 11.00%)**, which attract substantial carry trade inflows. Furthermore, **robust domestic economic data**, a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) fueled by "nearshoring" trends, and sound fiscal fundamentals collectively form a solid foundation of support for the peso. From a technical perspective, the **16.80-17.00** zone represents a significant technical and psychological resistance barrier. A decisive break above this area could open the path for further gains, with the next target residing around 17.20. On the downside, the **16.50-16.30** range serves as a key near-term support interval. Any flare-up in risk-aversion sentiment could weaken the MXN's carry trade appeal, prompting the pair to test resistance. Conversely, softer U.S. economic data or a sustained hawkish stance from Mexican authorities could see the exchange rate retreat toward support. The short-term outlook favors consolidation within elevated levels, with direction dependent on the outcome of this ongoing tug-of-war.
by trade1638
USD/ILS Analysis (330 words) The current exchange rate of USD/IUSD/ILS Analysis (330 words) The current exchange rate of USD/ILS is primarily driven by **geopolitical risks and domestic fiscal concerns**, which have now completely overshadowed traditional factors such as interest rate differentials and global economic trends. Since the outbreak of the latest Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Israeli new shekel has remained under sustained pressure, with exchange rate volatility surging significantly. Market concerns over a prolonged and expanding conflict have triggered capital outflows and safe-haven demand, representing the core force pushing the exchange rate higher. Furthermore, the massive defense and security expenditures resulting from the conflict severely undermine the Israeli government’s fiscal discipline, leading to a significant deterioration in its budget deficit expectations. International rating agency Fitch has already downgraded Israel’s sovereign credit outlook due to these concerns, further eroding investor confidence in holding Israeli assets and creating structural pressure on the ILS. Although the Bank of Israel holds approximately $200 billion in foreign exchange reserves and has implemented interventions to stabilize the currency, and although its policy interest rate (currently 4.5%) remains attractive, these factors have limited effectiveness in the face of substantial geopolitical risk premiums. Technically, the exchange rate faces strong resistance in the **3.70-3.75** range. A breakout above this level could lead to a test of historical highs. Downside support lies near **3.60**. Short-term movements will almost entirely depend on developments in the regional situation, with any signals of escalation or de-escalation likely to trigger sharp reactions in the exchange rate, maintaining a high-volatility and upward-biased trend.
by trade1638
S&P500 Historical Price Highs vs. Inflation-Adjusted Highs Nominal Price Definition (most used in history books & Wall Street research) Inflation-Adjusted Definition (shown in your chart) If you bought the 1929 top, you weren’t truly back to even (after inflation) until 1958. Same with the 1968 top — real break-even wasn’t until the early ’90s. Same with the 2000 top — real break-even was ~2016. This method shows how devastating secular bears are if you happen to buy at the peak and hold. It makes the secular bears look even longer, because inflation erodes your gains even when the index regains its nominal high.
SP:SPX
by Momentum_Trading_Strategy
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought COST before the rally: Now analyzing the options chain of COST Costco prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 970usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2025-9-19, for a premium of approximately $8.85. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:COSTLong
by TopgOptions
ACN Accenture plc Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ACN before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ACN Accenture plc prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 240usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2025-10-17, for a premium of approximately $10.55. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:ACNShort
by TopgOptions
KMX CarMax Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold KMX before the previous earnings: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of KMX CarMax prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price in the money Calls with an expiration date of 2027-1-15, for a premium of approximately $4.25. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:KMXLong
by TopgOptions
Aveng Aveng it's going down, we going to get that liquidity which was formed during the share consolidation , what I've realized, since I've been on my journey in this investing ntoni ntoni, NEVER LISTEN TO THE NEWS... SHOW ME THE CHARTS, I'LL TELL YOU THE NEWS YES I'VE INVESTED IN AVENG BEFORE AND AFTER CONSOLIDATIONS and I've sold all my shares at R12.50 early this year..... Aveng might go below R2.00 so that financial institutions can buy all of those shares which retailers(shareholders) sold during sell off, obviously they sold on loss, so buckle up, and get your cash ready , AVENG WILL GO UP , I believe in aveng, WE ARE THE AVENGER'S
JSE:AEGLong
by Mushabi666
JTO SHORT UPDATE TP3Hello everyone 💖 I'm back with the JTO cryptocurrency update 💁‍♂️ This analysis reached the third target and has fallen by about 42% so far 🔥🔥🔥 Summary of the last two analyses: The M-USDT cryptocurrency did not have a chance to enter and the trend reversal was not observed in this cryptocurrency and we did not enter The MKR-USDT cryptocurrency was also removed from the Binance exchange futures section and was automatically closed with a small profit ⚠️The analysis may not reach the final target, so at each target, if you make a good profit and see signs of a trend change, you can exit the trade or manage your capital. To support me, I would appreciate it if you boost the analysis and share it with your friends so that I can analyze it with more energy for you, my dears. Thank you all. 💖
Short
by mehdishirian
NZDUSD Consolidation above the Key resistance NZD/USD The pair is consolidating just below a key resistance zone, but the bullish market structure remains intact The USD is undergoing a short-term counter-trend correction, providing temporary pressure on NZD/USD. Market sentiment for risk currencies (like NZD) remains relatively positive, especially on expectations of policy easing (interest rate cuts) that could support growth and risk assets. If NZD/USD holds above support during this consolidation phase and breaks through its upper resistance, it could trigger a move toward 0.6050. Until then, the market may remain choppy due to the USD’s corrective strength. You may find more details in the chart. Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies. Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis.
Long
by MrMartin_11
1
Short XLU📚 Fabian Market Timing Model 1. Origins Creator: Richard Fabian (author of The Mutual Fund Wealth Builder). Context: 1970s–1980s, when mutual funds were a primary way to access markets. Philosophy: Investors can’t predict markets consistently. But a mechanical, rules-based approach removes emotion and reduces major drawdowns. 2. The Core Rule Signal: Follow the 39-week moving average (≈200-day MA) of the S&P 500. Buy/Hold: When S&P 500 closes above its 39-week MA. Sell to Cash: When S&P 500 closes below its 39-week MA. This is a trend-following system, aiming to keep investors in the market during long uptrends and out during deep bear markets. 3. Confirmation Filters Fabian added two confirmations to reduce false signals: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) must confirm by being above/below its own 39-week MA. Utilities Sector Index must also confirm above/below its own 39-week MA. ➡️ If all three agree (S&P, Dow, Utilities), it’s a valid buy/sell signal. This is effectively a triple-moving-average breadth check, designed to filter whipsaws. 4. Why Utilities? Utilities are rate-sensitive and considered defensive leaders. If utilities diverge (e.g., falling while S&P rises), it often warns of economic stress. Fabian used them as a canary in the coal mine to confirm or deny broader market trends. 5. Practical Application Originally applied to mutual funds (long-only, buy/sell, no shorting). In modern terms: Can be applied to SPY, DIA, XLU ETFs. Could use in systematic portfolios → switch between equities and T-bills. Conservative investors → smooths out crashes (1974, 2000, 2008). 6. Strengths ✅ Simple, mechanical, no subjectivity. ✅ Historically avoided catastrophic drawdowns. ✅ Long-term friendly (checks once a week). ✅ Uses confirmation to reduce false alarms. 7. Weaknesses ❌ Lagging: Being trend-following, it exits late (after market already dropped). ❌ Whipsaws: In sideways markets, can generate losing signals. ❌ Underperformance: Misses some of the strongest rebounds after corrections. ❌ No shorts: Purely “risk-off” into cash/bonds, so can underperform buy-and-hold in strong bull markets. 8. Educational Takeaway Richard Fabian’s message was: Don’t try to outsmart the market. Don’t rely on news, opinions, or gut feeling. Instead, use a disciplined system (like the 39-week MA) that reduces catastrophic risk, even if it’s not perfect. Perfection isn’t required — consistency is. ✅ In one line: The Fabian Market Timing Model = a mechanical, long-term trend-following system based on the S&P 500’s 39-week MA, confirmed by the Dow and Utilities, designed to reduce big drawdowns and remove investor emotion.
AMEX:XLUShort
by GabrielAmadeusLau
Youth Momentum and Digitalization Drive InditexStradivarius and Bershka Lead Inditex’s Youth Appeal with Digitalization as a Growth Engine By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Inditex’s youth-oriented chains — Stradivarius, Bershka, and Pull&Bear — have become the growth engine of the Galician fashion giant in the first half of 2025. Stradivarius leads the way with a 5.7% increase in sales, reaching €1.327 billion. Bershka follows with a 4% rise to €1.438 billion, consolidating its position as the group’s second-largest brand behind Zara. Pull&Bear completes the trio with a 3% gain, generating €1.158 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, Oysho also posted a strong 5.7% increase, reaching €389 million, thanks to its repositioning towards sportswear and leisure fashion. In contrast, Massimo Dutti showed a decline of 0.9%, down to €895 million, while Zara, including Zara Home and Lefties, grew by just 0.9%, though with a much larger volume, reaching €13.15 billion. Technological Innovation: Smart Tagging Beyond the numbers, Inditex continues to advance its technological transformation. The group has rolled out an RFID smart tagging system, allowing each garment to be identified in real time, improving inventory management, and enabling smoother shopping experiences. The system is already fully operational at Zara and is being expanded to Bershka and Pull&Bear, complementing services such as Click & Collect and self-checkout stations. Stock Market Performance Despite first-half revenue growing by just 1.6%, markets have reacted positively to signs of improvement in the second half of the year. Inditex shares jumped 6.52% following its results release, and another 2.66% the next day, marking a 9.4% gain in two sessions. This performance put the company at the top of the Ibex 35 and boosted its market capitalization to €145.4 billion, reinforcing its standing as a global fashion leader. In short, youth-driven growth and digitalization are putting Inditex back on a recovery path that could solidify in the third quarter, even if its overall growth remains more moderate compared to pre-pandemic years. Technical Analysis – Industria de Diseño Textil SA (Ticker: AT: ITX.ES) Inditex shares closed yesterday around €46.64, recording a rally of nearly 9.4% in just two sessions, fueled by optimism around its results. The chart reflects a clearly bullish short-term bias and a consolidation phase in the longer term, as the price attempts to break the upper range while holding above key moving averages — a setup not seen since June. The current support lies near €44.68, with a secondary level at €43.58, which recently acted as resistance and now serves as a pivot point. This level aligns with the 200-day moving average, potentially signaling a turning point from sideways action into a more defined bullish trend. On the upside, investors are eyeing resistance at €48.5 and €49.5, levels that could cap short-term gains. The RSI indicates overbought conditions, leaving room for short-term pullbacks after the sharp rally, though the technical structure remains solid. In the medium term, a breakout above €49 would pave the way for a test of yearly highs, while a drop below €44 would serve as an early warning of weakness. The MACD also confirms a recent bullish crossover. According to the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse, European markets currently show a neutral-mixed stance, reflecting a balanced environment since mid-June, albeit with intermittent risk-on impulses that have yet to trigger any signs of alarm. Youth Pays the Bills The momentum of Inditex’s youth-oriented brands, coupled with its digital push, cements the group’s leadership in the sector. At the same time, its stock maintains a bullish tone, supported by solid levels and resistance points near €49, which represent the next challenge for investors. In essence, Inditex enters the third quarter in a technically favorable context, with markets rewarding both its operational progress and the outlook for sustained upside momentum. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
BME:ITXLong
by ActivTrades
Portfolio EducationPortfolio Education: Strategy Breakdown 1. Core Structure of Portfolio 10% BSV (Vanguard Short-Term ETF) This portfolio follows the guidelines that Warren Buffett has written in his will for his wife's trust in the 2013 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. They state that the trustee should invest 90% in a low-cost S&P 500 index fund (VOO), with the remaining 10% invested in a short-term government bonds fund. The basic strategy is to own a major slice of all American businesses that are bound to grow in total. Buffett believes this portfolio is "superior to those attained by most investors - whether pension funds, institutions or individuals." Role: Dividend Yield, diversification outside traditional assets. 50% Equities (Primary Plays) Growth + Value core holdings. TQQQ/Growth: TQQQ/FANG+ is a smart portfolio that consists of 10 of today’s most traded tech giants. It has Meta (META, formerly Facebook), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Snowflake (SNOW) (rotation slot, sometimes replaced by others). I swap SNOW with Broadcom, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Robinhood, or Coinbase depending on index methodology/BTC Cycle. VTV/Value = Tilted toward financials, energy, healthcare, and industrials. Consists of dividend-paying stocks that could generate constant money flow in the long term. I use APD, CL, EMR, IBM, JNJ, KMB, KO, MMM, PG, and WMT as a leveraged bet. TQQQ, provides compounding and exposure to economic expansion. TQQQ Breadth: If only 2–3 names are carrying index gains (like NVDA & MSFT), risk of correction is higher. Value investing is about buying securities for less than their intrinsic value, then holding them until the market recognizes that value. Key Metrics: Price-to-Earnings (P/E) → low P/E may mean undervalued. Price-to-Book (P/B) → useful for banks/asset-heavy firms. Price-to-Sales (P/S) → for low-profit companies. Dividend Yield / Payout Ratio → sustainable income source. PEG Ratio (P/E ÷ Growth) → checks if valuation is fair vs growth rate. Free Cash Flow Yield. (FCF/Market Cap) → shows true cash generation. I would look for 3/6 to be good before buying. Rule of thumb (forward P/E too high = Risk) adds a macro filter. I prefer a PEG of 2 or less for Large-Caps and 1 or less for Mid-caps. When they pay dividends, I use PEGY over PEG. A ROA >6% and ROE > 8% are very crucial. A strong balance sheet has an Gross Margin > 20~40%, Operating Margin > 5~15%, and a Net Margin 10~20%. Interest Coverage is moat proxy, anything above 3~5 is works. Optionally, FCF is good if >0. P/S < 5, or <20 for Pharmacy/Biotech. P/B < 1.5, better for banks/sector. I avoid small-caps, but when I buy one I first check the Debt/Revenue ratio. 40% Cash/Options/Futures/Futures Options Futures: ES (S&P 500), NQ (Nasdaq), YM (Dow) for intraday or short swing trading. Options: directional and hedging overlay. Start via the Wheel. Cash buffer allows tactical pivots (gold, silver, REITs, etc.). 2. Futures Trading (Main Arena) Preferred Instruments: ES, NQ, YM → highly liquid index futures. Approach: Funded accounts = less personal margin risk. Commodities: Gold: Held overnight in rally phases (safe-haven demand). Natural Gas: Overnight trades (volatile, seasonally spiky). ⚠️ Key Risk: Overnight NG is notorious for gaps; good to size very small relative to ES/NQ. WTI moves 1 dollar up or down in average every afternoon. 3. Hedging Framework DXY vs WTI/HO Inverse Play If DXY rises → WTI/HO usually falls, but edge lies in catching synchronized moves (both rising or falling). Expect the opposite move for WTI that DXY performed the following day, and plan accordingly. These conditions are more common on “down days,” particularly Thursdays. Practical Tip: Track inventory reports (EIA on Wed/Thurs) and macro dollar drivers. Friday Hedge Rule Buy gold equities (WPM, AEM, etc.) on Friday. Sell Monday open. Works best in “inflammatory” macro periods (rate hikes, inflation scares, high valuations). 4. Metals Seasonality Gold vs Silver Timing Silver tends to outperform gold: Dec–Feb: winter demand + industrial rebound. Jul–Aug: summer volatility + monetary policy lull. Gold outperforms during inflationary panic or when equities look stretched. Practical Rule: Winter/Summer → overweight silver. Panic macro (e.g., VIX stretched/elevated) → switch to bonds, gold, and other safer assets. 5. REIT Allocation Logic Optimal Entry Condition: When yields < 2–4%. Lower yields → cheaper borrowing → REITs rally. Trend Filter: Only enter if above 21 SMA (trend confirmation). Style: Slow movers, better for weekly charts & trend following. Role: Defensive equity exposure; bond proxy with dividend yield. 6. Options Overlay Tactical Use: Selling premium (income) in high IV environments. Buying calls/puts for directional plays (funded futures act). Macro Filter: High VIX → collect more premium. I would match my % allocation to VIX levels. Earnings season → buy options for directional volatility plays. 7. Portfolio Risk Management Sizing: 10% → BSV. 50% → Equities (core growth + Value/REITs). 40% → Tactical cash (options/futures/hedges). IEF/TLT 40/60 Portfolio can work as well. Correlation Awareness: ES/NQ/YM → move together, pick one to trade; hedge with DXY, WTI, Gold. Metals and REITs can diversify during equity drawdowns. Crypto is uncorrelated in some regimes, but can collapse in risk-off (-70%). Altcoins peak either during summer or during winter, check before hand. Meme-coins fall off -99% every 2 years, so I would check for something else to invest. Other: Good for V-shaped Corrections: 40% PGR, FICO 22%, LLY 16%, VST 10%, NRG 4.5%, ACGL 4.5%, IRM 3%. Better than holding APY = BOXX 10%, BIL 2%, TBIL 13%, BILS 29%, SGOV 46%. ETF: CSPX.AS 30%, IUT.L 20%, ISX5.L 20%, IWDA.L 25%, EIMI.L 5%. Execution Cadence: Daily: ES/NQ/YM futures. Weekly: REIT trend checks. Seasonal: Silver vs Gold switches. Macro triggers: TLT hedge when valuation chatter spikes.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by GabrielAmadeusLau
HIMS may be preparing its next push up!This one is getting my attention too. It's among the best performers TTM and was digesting its last year push in the recent quarters but that could soon change if it breaks again that somehow chaotic handle. Nothing is granted in life but I think that all the ingredients are there for it to make it happen. Relevant points at the time of writing: 1. We are at a new Market cycle since June 25. 2. Market direction is UP some 90% 3. Stock fundamentals are good with a strong RS Rating of 94. 4. We are at Base 1 just after a reset. 5. Good volume profile with signs of institutional Accumulation
NYSE:HIMSLong
by AL26
Bitcoin's upward trend will continue, open a long position!Bitcoin Analysis I personally maintain a bullish view on Bitcoin. The market has been rising steadily since it began trading below 110,000. Around 107,200 marked the starting point of the previous surge. At the end of August, it returned to this support level, forming a double bottom pattern on the daily K-line chart, suggesting ample room for a rebound. The previous rally peaked around 124,500, and this current rally is expected to reach at least 120,000. While the previous surge was rapid and powerful, this rebound is more gradual and stable. Rebounds often involve significant pullbacks to build momentum, so my recent strategy is to open long positions during these pullbacks. I am firmly bullish on Bitcoin in the long term. The current upward trend is positive, and I am continuously opening long positions. I share my Bitcoin trading strategies daily. If you are confused about the market, you can refer to my perspectives. Thank you for following my account; your likes and follow-up are the greatest support for me. Bitcoin Strategy: Consider opening a long position on Bitcoin when the price retraces to 114,500 or 113,500, with a target of 116,500.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Violet_Trading_Strategy
1