Those who have been following the current USDCAD call (see attached: "Oil weighing heavy on CAD") will know we are already positioned in longs here. So what we are trying to do is add another position on a "sell the fact leg" in oil after cuts on the supply side are fully cooked in ... (so time to start working the sell-side again there.)
The dollar is also...
It's Bank of Canada day ;)
Hike is expected by the Mr Market
In my opinion it's big "if", even if they hike it will be dovish hike.
So I do expect lower levels ahead of or right after ( stop hunt ) and then higher prices towards 1,35.
Invalidation of that bullish view with daily close below 1,3150.
I think $USDCAD might be ready to trend down from here and fulfill the long term chart pattern implications. A long term decline back down to the mode in the 6-month timeframe is possible, but won't be a straight line down naturally. Ideally one would seek to short it when it gets overbought in weekly charts, for example, and aim to cover once oversold...rinse and...
=> This week we have BoC on deck with a widely anticipated rate hike. The sales and consumer prints last week came in softer than anticipated and we see this as a great valuation driven pullback.
=> Here we are targeting the recent highs with stops at the lows. From a technical point of view we can see the early longs had their stops run on the data pullback.
=> We still maintain our USDCAD short position from earlier in the week and recommend selling all corrective rallies here ahead of the BoC rate hike widely expected this month.
=> Although the rate hike is expected this trade is far from crowded and we see incoming data to keep the BoC on track with tightening monetary policy.
=> Odds of any hikes are close to 90%...
White line will be the trendline resistance for the play
Red line is the stop loss area
Daily view of the trendline support:
First TP is 1.25 or till the white trendline resistance is showing some weakness
China SH composite is approaching 2016 low at 2638.
Adding the background the BOC raised the forward reserve requirement for foreign exchange and RMB surged.
If look at the down side, 70 pips to drop/-2.5%, will possibly see a resistance showed at the 2016 retracement low @ 2638.
Personally also considered it as the psychological support of investors.
I like the $USDCAD pair here for a swing trade opportunity, given the trend in the $DXY chart, and in the $EURUSD and $USDJPY pairs, as well as movement in oil and gold, I reckon the trade has very good odds. Market participants have been pricing in the fact that the Fed won't hike rates again this year, but it isn't clear if that will be the case or not. Either...
In the event the USD/CAD closes negative, it will mark the third straight red candlestick on the daily chart. July has extended the negative sentiment of late June, with price seemingly on a collision course with the 1.3000 handle. If we see a continued fall, then a buy from just above the macro 62% Fibonacci retracement is good trade location to the bull.
GBP/CAD downtrend on the daily chart could be ending as price tries to break above the cloud. However, if BoC remains hawkish this week after an expected hike, it could cause that attempt to fail and result in a close below the Ichimoku cloud again. Keep an eye out for a good risk/reward trade if that should happen.
Short term, I'm expecting another 3-wave down towards 83.57 level.
However, the overall bias for the longer term is still to the upside.
Disclaimer - this is not a trade call. Make sure you have a proper trading and risk management plan before executing any trades in the market.
Price has broken above the trend structure after a correction since September 2017. We are holding onto a bullish bias for this pair, potentially targeting 94.60 area.
I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea.
Have a great trading year ahead!
USD Bullish Rationale :
1. Optimism tax reform bill
2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment
3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar
CAD Bearish Rationale :
1. I am expecting the effect of Dovish CAD is...
So BOC, despite of the positive economic data past few months, remained "cautious" about them stepping off the gas even further (aka raising interest rates). It took me several seconds to speed read the statement, digest it, intepret it and make an actionable plan based on that information. At the time, I thought it was pretty dovish, not VERY dovish.. but dovish...
As long as the uncertainty over Brexit divorce deals and irish border remains, I will be bullish on the sterling overall. A hawkish tone from BOC later today could be a major catalyst for this pair to move lower. A positive development on the brexit issue and a dovish tone from BOC later are the major risks for this trading plan.