With FED's current policy and without any change in the interest rate from FED or BoJ, we are in a range trade where would buy at 101.2 and you sell around 103. Unless BoJ announces a change of policy and until FEd's increased its interest rate, we may be stuck in the range trade. However please bare in mind that when FEd will increase its interest rate, the...
USDJPY is on the move. Altough the pair didn't cross 101.8 in a sustainable way, it is still above 101.5 which is our benchmark.
At the present time, the pair is at an oversold level, i.e correction is imminent. If the correction level remain around 101.5-101.3, USDJPY may jump on the upside.
Based on Ichimoku, we have 2 out of 4 positives signal for an upside....
The pair is in a little correction but nothing to worry yet.
101.3 is a very critical support.
A rebound from 101.5 may be expected. Bellow 101.5, the vital level is 101.3 bellow which it may be a reversal.
A re bounce at 101.3 would form a double bottom with 102.2 as a neckline and 102.5-103.2 as a target.
So we do watch carefully the pair and stay alert.
Traders,
Potential reversal has emerged - albeit quite speculative - on the back of an expanding triangle near-completion at Point-5, as well as a prop-pattern potential ("Great White").
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TECH-NOTE: The Case For A Higher Point-5:
1 - Note that such triangles can often post an overlap of Point-5 across its 1-3 line, so further rallying...
USDJPY's trading plan is still valid. My benchmark is 101.5 and the key support level is 101.325.
Indicators show that we are at an oversold level because of FEd's Early announcement concerning the increase of the interest rate. However, USD is the strong currency on the USDJPY pair.
The black forcast shows the expected curve and trend of USDJPY. Please...
USDJPY is almost at its lowest level but the pair is in a falling wedge pattern.
FEd decided not to increase its interest rate before 1Q15 therefore, the expected rise of USD against JPY has been a little bit delayed. however, USD is the string currency against JPY and there is no delay in the tappering program. I.E there will be less money in the market as far...
1H Chart: With upcoming data release from BoJ (CPI , and UER ) I have a strong indication that the yen pairs will be reaching a support around $101.2 - $101.5
We do have 2 datas in hand.
1-FED will not review its interest rate on the upside before 1Q15.
2-BoJ is planning to reach it's inflation Target.
Japan will release important figure this week that may affect the pair. therefore one should be very caution before entering the market.
Having said that, on a long term basis, BoJ and FED are planning to increase...
Since there is no change in FED's policy, ie no review or postponing of the QE end date, in other word, FEd is keeping the tapering schedule, interest rate will not rise one to a sudden, at least not before 1Q15, we can expect 101.5 to remain an important support level and 103.5 an important resistance level. If FEd increase its interest rate, we may se a move...
Friends,
This pair is quite difficult to grasp from a fundamental perspective, as both $EUR and $JPY are expected to under-perform. Yet, there could potentially be a trade opp here, using my prop predictive/forecasting model
FUNDAMENTAL DATA:
First, $EUR's recent negative deposit rate combined with ECB's option of turning to large-scale asset purchases are...
Everything is said on the chart. One can see my previous analysis published. It looks like we can buy at around 101.5 and sell around 103.5 The swing trade model.....
With the reversal at ~102.50 the descending wedge pattern is maturing. I am playing the short side down near support but in the big picture I am bullish once the pattern completes. Descending wedges are typically bullish continuation patterns.
The pair may face a little correction towards %50 of Fibo retracement i.e 102.0XXX, however, baring in mind FED's decision ,the tapering schedule and BoJ decision, the pair is still on the strong side for the USD. In other words, even though there may be a correction even to 101.5, on a medium term, it is long for the USDJPY pair in favor of USD unless a polical...
For the record - Looking at two benchmark values (XAU and JPY relative to USD, expressed in relative strength terms).
Expecting persistent decline in Gold, as has been the continued case herein.
Expecting strengthening of the USD against JPY, mainly driven by:
1 - $TNX rate increase
2 - Japanese Govt bond rate decrease
3 - Japan persistent QE + ZIRP +...
The shooting star pattern did not play out and with the bullish candle today price may push its way to the down sloping trend line before reversing. Price can still move higher from here without invalidating the trade theory.
Friends,
In case you had missed one of the many signals I release via my Twitter alias, @4xForecaster, here is a repost of the tweet from this June 03rd, 2014:
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"$CADJPY - Short opp @ 93.995 - SL trader's tolerance risk (mine: 94.03 = 93.995 + spread)
- S/T TP@ 93.371
- L/T TP@ 91.489 - High...
USDJPY is a nice pair having mechanical behaviour to political and economic statements and decision.
Remember when FEd decided QE1, USD shrink against the YEN, but when BoJ decided to put its QE, it was the otherway around.
At the present, we do have FED's Tappering vs Boj decision to put an end to the QE. But BoJ push really hard the QE. where as FED's QE1+2+3...
The future of USDJPY pair is in the hands of the FED. BoJ made its announcement in the past week and decided to put an end to the Quantitative easing. On a very long term basis, USD vs JPY fight should end with USD being on the winning side. The "Historical" trading range of USDJPY is between 99 and 104 when the market is not distorted by Central Banks action...
