Expected .5 or .618 retrace for wave 2 in this idea > However, looks like just .382 was enough for some traders. Possibly in wave 3 now within a channel after exiting inverse head and shoulder neckline. Potential to reach 5940-6020 overall if this is 5 waves up. Currently holding longs from 5705.
Previously theorised an ABC to low 55's but the correction could be over. Looks like on a smaller timeframe that crude is in wave B (ABCDE triangle) before heading down for wave C for 1 0.5 or 0.618 correction overall...possible a wave 3 starts after that heading towards 59 area.
An update to this idea > Possibly complete wave 5 of 5 of 3 around 5960 before .382 correction to 5565 before up to 62.
Possibly already completed wave 1 from yesterdays bottom and now in the correction of that wave 1. Could be in wave 4 of C now to .382 of wave 3 of C to 5773, before wave 5 of C to 1.618 of wave 4 of C to 5754. Wave 3 up next (not plotted those waves yet). Long at 5745 and 5788.
May have completed wave 4, possibly wave 5 next to 5995. Looks bearish but the 4H candle has served bulls well recently. Long from 5773, 5798 and 5830.
Just an idea, some similarities in the patterns and the fib levels seem to work. Wave 5 of C back to $26 before new cycle starts.
Another alternative count and I prefer this one as if you zoom out on the chart the fibs point to the same level as 1.618 of the larger wave 4. I believe that around 5980 could be a great shorting opportunity for around 400 pips.
Some minor changes to this theory >
We've now reached the top of the channel. The larger wave 3 breached the channel so this wave 5 should stay within it. Expecting a retrace from here to .236 (5790) or .382 (5750) before a final push to 59+.
An alternative to wave 4 correction. Some waves plotted to 5892. I guess if yesterdays high is broken then this is possible.
Possible wave correction to .382 of wave 3 at 5714
Low probability in my opinion but wave 5 extension to 2.618, doubtful, but would be great :)
Potential mini waves
Some minor adjustments. Long since 5595.
Crude pulled back to 0.618 as per previous chart and now possibly starting wave 3 of 5 to around 5820 (1.618 of wave 1). Wave 4 pull back 0.382 of wave 3 to 5726. Wave 5 extend 1.618 of wave 4 to 5976 which is also 1.618 of the larger wave 4 (5788/5483).