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C-FORK

BTC done for now, my projection until XmasWell, that was interesting. And unexpected. 1. Segwit fork cancelled That crazy segwit fork that no one really wanted anymore? Got cancelled just now. All the people that accumulated bitcoin in anticipation of the fork (like, getting out of alt-coins), well, no fork = no need to hold BTC for the fork. 2. BTC reached new ATH Right at about the same time segwit got cancelled, BTC reached a new all time high. This A.T.H. was just about exactly what was expected: 1 september A.T.H. of $4930 times 1.61 (fibonaci) = $7935. Just like that 1 september A.T.H. was the June 11 A.T.H. of $3000 times 1.61. My guess is that large bitcoin holders just decided to quickly push the BTC price onwards to this A.T.H. just to get a lot of uncertainty out of the market. It shot up from $7474 to $7888 in 30 minutes time and withdrew almost immediately. All the people that held bitcoin in anticipation of this fibonaci all time high, well, fibonaci A.T.H. reached = BTC going down for the correction, just like it did in the previous cycles. At this very moment, it's likely that a quite some BTC holders are still unaware of the all time high and the cancellation of the segwit fork, or not able to act on it yet (being at work, sleeping, driving etc). I therefore expect a further sharp decline in the coming hours 3. Alt-coins bottomed out With a lot of people swapping alt-coins for BTC in anticipation of the 25 oct Bitcoin Gold fork and the (now) cancelled Segwit-fork, many alts have bottomed out. There's a lot of fuel for a new upswing all over the place. Most alts shot up after the fork cancellation and bitcoin A.T.H. and will imho continue to do so in the coming days. So I'm expecting a BTC correction following a somewhat similar pattern like after the A.T.H.'s of 1 september ($4930) and 11 june ($3000). However, since it this current cycle has been a bit overextended thanks to the segwit fork timing, the bearish period could be shorter than usual. If the previous 2-month cycles repeat, it's possible that a new A.T.H. of about >10K could be reached somewhere among Xmas en New Year. Fibonaci puts it at about 7935*1.61 = 12.7K but I would not bet on these cycles staying 100% predictable forever. /edit - Disgusting. Xmas has apparently become so commercial it even has its own stock symbol :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by AndersF
5
UKOIL. Brent in a corrective trend. Mid-term developmentWould like to share my view on UKOIL price evolution from Feb 2016 to the date and a place sort of a forecat for some months in advance. Labeled as educational as I will try to update the chart with some Elliott Wave ratios and targets which I use. Also, will try to explain why oil price depends only on 20% on the spot market and rest 80% is pure speculation. EW main ratio is everything related to 61.8%. On Brent chart, we can see a first corrective wave (A) which started in January and completed back in December 2016. Corrective trends commonly consist of so-called double or triple zigzags which means it will be labeled as A-B-C or A-B-C-D-E. In this case, a bigger Wave (A) consisted of a double A-B-C zigzag where Wave C was 61.8% of a value of Wave A. After a bigger Wave (A) has completed, there was a triple A-B-C-D-E correction which completed a (B) wave on the chart. It bounced from 61.8% of (A) although there was a false-break below that level, when even a weekly candle closed below and it looked as a fully valid breakdown. In my opinion, we are currently developing a Wave A in a bigger (C). It has just stopped today (07.11.2017) on a projected 61.8% Fibonacci value of a previous Wave (A). However, as global equity markets still have a long room to run, I believe price will skip this level and, although some violent retraces are possible, will arrive to the final target of 75 where big (C) equals big (A) which is a common case for correction trends. Resuming: common values are C equals 61.8% of A, C equals A or C equals 161.8% of A. Fibonacci retracement/extension tool has to be used constantly if one decides to apply Elliott Wave techniques for trading. P.S. Bigger wave (A) completed on the 26th of December 2016. Notice the news published on the 10th of December on OPEC and non-OPEC agreement: www.reuters.com Market still went up slightly while COT reports were showing some all-time-high record long positions on oil. Finally, after some weeks of indecision, price went down destroying all longs. P.P.S. Notice as well how oil price bounced back in November 2016. Global equities went down on the Elections day and immediately bounced up, starting a massive rally which is still in play nowadays. We haven´t had a 10% correction in almost a year while all experts forecasted the greatest dump and the biggest risk-off environment in history if Trump was elected. But that´s a topic for another conversation.
FX:UKOIL
by captain_smollett
BTC nearing the top?Hi. Am deep in my sell zone, so am slowly selling a small % of holdings up to fork-day or until it drops back out of my sell zone. Added some random squiggly (guessed) lines to show the next dip and rise - IF we stay within the same channel since early 2017. It goes up to around 13k around Feb! Sounds like madness, but so does the price as I write this : $7300 Perhaps we will spend longer on the middle of the channel - or form a less aggressive channel. I dunno. Good luck!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by darobsta
10
Long Bitcoin CashWho knows what will happen to BTC come November 17th. What we do know is by November 13th Bitcoin Cash will fork to adjust its hash rate difficulty algorithm. "The original Bitcoin Cash “EDA” allowed Bitcoin Cash to survive as a minority chain but produces wild fluctuations of hashrate. This is problematic because it prevents consistently fast confirmations for users, and radically shifts the coin issuance schedule." www.bitcoinabc.org The new upgraded Bitcoin Cash will have one less reason to not buy it. A common argument why Bitcoin cash is a bad payment vehicle is due to the wild fluctuations in the hash rate producing variable transaction confirmation times for end users. November 17th Bitcoin forks into two chains; Bitcoin (b1x) as it is today with 1mb blocks and Bitcoin Segwit2x (b2x) which is the same as today but with 8mb blocks. The community is torn on which fork to support. November 17th we may have 3 versions of bitcoin. b1x, b2x, and BCH. BCH will have had its difficulty adjustment fork and will be a more stable blockchain. Ever wonder why in the USA we only allow two primary candidates to run for president? When two dogs fight the third gets the bone.
BLong
by investing_alt
4
LTC timeline comparison with BTC Gold forkWe're seeing very similar patterns of price action today, 14 days from the 2X fork, as we saw 14 days before the bitcoin gold fork. Something to watch will be a potential repeat of the pattern which drove LTC from $50 to $70 in 2 days If BTC has a large correction from its current all time high of $6900-7000 because of the speed of growth which seems highly probable, then we could see people move into litecoin temporarily as they did before the bitcoin gold fork to protect their gains in a relatively stable coin, which will drive the price rapidly higher.
LLong
by TenaciousJ
1
Pre and post fork prices of BTC - 8000 to 4200 to 15kBefore the fork the market just might remain bullish. Maybe up to a 8000 USD pricepoint. Once the fork arrives, a lot of FUD may enter the market. This might turn the overall sentiment way more bearish and this is possibly done in a very agressive way. People (including professionals in all kinds of markets, also besides the financial markets) might be easy to scare, as not many people understand the technology. The price could be pushed down further by whales that look for ever cheaper coins. Many new players that have entered the market on all the recent news could be scared out of their coins, and i'm afraid in unprecedented ways. From 8000 USD back to maybe 4200 USD. After the dust settles whales have their half-price-bitcoin positions ready for many days and prices go up again, i think to at least 15k, once everybody realises it was - at least partially - a setup.
by zooitje
3
Ethereum - A Contender for the Crown, or Impending Ice Age?One of the fellows following me asked me about Ethereum, and in the process of answering his question, I started on the analysis and figured I'd just finish it and post it. Ethereum is a coin that I was really interested in when I first came back to crypto in July. As time has gone on and all of this bubble has played out, I have become increasingly bearish on it for the following reasons. Ethereum is a solid project and Vitalik is a very capable and respectable guy. That being said, the value of this token intrinsically is actually pretty small, as one can quite easily see that the reason Ether has scaled in value is from demand and hype from the ICO phase, along with the potential that Ether could possibly dethrone Bitcoin's first mover advantage. The ICO phase is now completely destroyed and will never return. The bag holders it has left behind will never return to crypto and never be able to recover their losses, and that's not even counting those who got ripped off amidst scams. It seems virtually none of the dApps that have come out are particularly groundbreaking or real-world usage to justify the enormous market cap they were once demanding. Arguably the best coin in ERC20 was OmiseGO, and that token is in brutal falling knife decline. Worse is, when it comes to the idea of "The Flippening", Ethereum has a fundamental problem in this upcoming challenge because Bitcoin Core (BCore)/Blockstream has planted the BGold fork with a Proof of Work change to GPU mining. This means that if the day comes where the Bitcoin Core blockchain loses hashpower to Bitcoin Cash or Segwit2x and BCore parachutes to BGold, Ethereum will eat nuclear pain via multiple red candles because it'll lose its GPU mining network to BGold as BGold pumps in profitability. Furthermore, think about it: What's the difference between Ethereum and Ethereum Classic? Ethereum Classic is ~$10 and Ethereum is $300. I realize the history of the fork and the differences between the two, but there is absolutely _not_ 2900% benefit to ETH over ETC, and so ETC pricing could be something that ETH returns to in the future. Looking at the technicals we're in an ascending triangle and Ether should be building pressure to retest the ATH line. Ideally, the ATH line should be flat, but we can see the last run towards $400+ was anemic even amidst bubble mania. Right now, on the 6H chart, we have a red kumo twist, it has broken the bull run trendline from $16, and both MAs of Willy21 and Stoch RSI show downward, collapsing momentum, and momentum just logged its first purple tick. (Edit: This has changed since I prepared this post last night). All this is great, but keep in mind, this pattern is not surprising for consolodation either, attracts a lot of short sellers, and can be squeezed very hard. With everyone throwing their hat in the ring for who can become "Bitcoin" in November, I'm sure Ether will make itself known. But right now, neither price actions nor fundamentals are looking particularly healthy for it. I wrote this last night and didn't publish it. In the mean time, Ethereum just had a nice spike and may be waking up for exactly the scenario above. A breakout above $325 would be indicative of a new run. However, for the size of breakout it is (small), it's extended the oscillators pretty far, so it may end up failing and breaking down quicker than it looks, and it may continue to break out upwards.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by RiversAndMountains
11
Bitcoin Cash - Bitcoin Spirit, $450 Body; Think Tiny BullImportant Reading for Anyone Interested in Bitcoin Cash: www.reddit.com A history of the Bitcoin community over the last few years and how this day came to be. It's absolutely worth your time to read all of it, all the links, and make up your mind as to where you want to stand at this stage of history. I will admit that my estimate in entry points was completely wiped out by tremendous bullish momentum. As of writing, South Korean volume was $557MM today for Bitcoin Cash, whereas Bitcoin Core was $266MM on HitBTC and $152MM on Bitfinex. If you think about the implications of this as the November fork drama approaches... The advice that I will give you to you on Bitcoin Cash is most simple: do not short Bitcoin Cash. Why? It is a tiny bull that has yet to grow into its full form. Think those little sponge animals that when you throw them into water, poof. Shorting Bitcoin Cash is a fantastic way to get a call from your good friend margin. The $500 mark is a big mark as it represents both a former point of resistance and the return above a historical downtrend line. If it breaks through that, next target is $549 previous resistance, which I would assume would be smashed through, and then after that $730. When to buy? Buy a dip. Make sure you have strong hands. It _will_ dip. It _will_ retrace. Just keep in mind when bull runs are very manic, they can go up in a straight line for a long time with very few retracements. This is the benefit of strong hands. Frankly, buying a breakout is fine too. Remember, in people's minds, and in reality, this is something that is very very much Bitcoin and is still selling for $400-$500 while Core is selling for $6,000. Once this hits a more feverish pitch, the fib uptrace lines are going to be smashed through as the blue (green) candles are straight lines. Segwit2X Futures have been moving on HitBTC at $1,000 today: coinmarketcap.com . Bitcoin Cash as it stands today is worth tremendously more than Segwit2x with what it has, where it came from, and the fact it has first-mover advantage against other forks. Think about it.
BLong
by RiversAndMountains
22
Temporary pullback to new ATH before B2X forkCompletely new to trading (august 2017) & this is my first prediction. Would love some input. I believe we will continue the bullish run after a short pullback, and that we will se new ATH before the B2X fork. We will probably see more people buy in before the fork than what we saw for BTG, followed by the now typical sell off. We just tested the 23% retracement and might se a head and shoulders pattern forming before retracing to 38% followed by new ATH (between 6500-7500 USD). I'm considering placing a buy order at 5000 USD (and a smaller safety one around 4600 in case there is a flash crash and I'm not quick to respond). And maybe locking in some profits around 6500-7500, just after the fork (or before if I see a good alt deal). Thoughts?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by emjo
1