captain_smollett

UKOIL. Brent in a corrective trend. Mid-term development

FX:UKOIL   Crude Oil (Brent)
Would like to share my view on UKOIL             price evolution from Feb 2016 to the date and a place sort of a forecat for some months in advance.

Labeled as educational as I will try to update the chart with some Elliott Wave ratios and targets which I use. Also, will try to explain why oil             price depends only on 20% on the spot market and rest 80% is pure speculation.

EW main ratio is everything related to 61.8%. On Brent chart, we can see a first corrective wave (A) which started in January and completed back in December 2016. Corrective trends commonly consist of so-called double or triple zigzags which means it will be labeled as A-B-C or A-B-C-D-E             . In this case, a bigger Wave (A) consisted of a double A-B-C zigzag where Wave C was 61.8% of a value of Wave A.

After a bigger Wave (A) has completed, there was a triple A-B-C-D-E             correction which completed a (B) wave on the chart. It bounced from 61.8% of (A) although there was a false-break below that level, when even a weekly candle closed below and it looked as a fully valid breakdown.

In my opinion, we are currently developing a Wave A in a bigger (C). It has just stopped today (07.11.2017) on a projected 61.8% Fibonacci value of a previous Wave (A). However, as global equity markets still have a long room to run, I believe price will skip this level and, although some violent retraces are possible, will arrive to the final target of 75 where big (C) equals big (A) which is a common case for correction trends.

Resuming: common values are C equals 61.8% of A, C equals A or C equals 161.8% of A.

Fibonacci retracement/extension tool has to be used constantly if one decides to apply Elliott Wave techniques for trading.

P.S. Bigger wave (A) completed on the 26th of December 2016. Notice the news published on the 10th of December on OPEC and non-OPEC agreement: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-meeting/opec-non-opec-agree-first-global-oil-pact-since-2001-idUSKBN13Z0J8

Market still went up slightly while COT reports were showing some all-time-high record long positions on oil             . Finally, after some weeks of indecision, price went down destroying all longs.

P.P.S. Notice as well how oil             price bounced back in November 2016. Global equities went down on the Elections day and immediately bounced up, starting a massive rally which is still in play nowadays. We haven´t had a 10% correction in almost a year while all experts forecasted the greatest dump and the biggest risk-off environment in history if Trump was elected. But that´s a topic for another conversation.
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