CADJPY LONG Market structure bullis on HTFs DW
Entry at Both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psych Level 109.500
H4 Candlestick rejection
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Candlestick Analysis
NZDUSD LLONG Market structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 0.56500
Touching EMA H4
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Nifty Analysis EOD – November 18, 2025 – Tuesday 🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – November 18, 2025 – Tuesday 🔴
26K Rejection: Bears Take Control, Wiping Out Previous Day’s Gain!
🗞 Nifty Summary
Despite lingering negative global sentiment, the Nifty opened with a modest 13-point Gap Up, but the bullishness quickly vanished. The index dipped 97 points in the first minute and eventually found a base near the critical 25880 support, marking the day’s low at 25,882. After a gradual recovery to test the previous resistance levels of 25944 and 25977, the index met the same fight near the 25980 ~ 26000 zone.
The rejection from the psychological 26K mark proved decisive, pushing Nifty sharply back down toward the day’s lows. The day closed at 25,910.05, resulting in a loss of 103.40 points (or -0.40%).
This move erased all of the previous day’s gains and confirmed a clear sign of rejection at the upper levels. The move was tricky, briefly breaching the PDL and hinting at manipulation ahead of the upcoming expiry. The trend confirmation remains pending, and caution is advised.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels
🛡 Intraday Walk
The session was dominated by bears, right from the opening bell, despite the initial small gap-up. The sharp morning decline established the day’s direction. The mid-session saw bulls attempt to reclaim ground, but the recovery was consistently capped by strong supply near 26,000. The failure to hold this key level resulted in the late-day sell-off, closing the index back near the bottom of its trading range.
This volatile price action, marked by the day’s range engulfing the previous day’s range, strongly suggests an upcoming period of higher volatility or a potential change in the short-term trend bias.
📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 26,021.80
High: 26,029.85
Low: 25,876.50
Close: 25,910.05
Change: −103.40 (−0.40%)
🏗️ Structure Breakdown
Type: Bearish candle
Range (High–Low): ≈ 153 points — indicating higher volatility for the session.
Body: ≈ 65.25 points — clear bullish dominance for the day.
Upper Wick: ≈ ~8 points — confirming immediate rejection and almost no strength from buyers near the open.
Lower Wick: ≈ ~34 points — buyers did attempt to defend the 25880 support, but the recovery was limited.
📚 Interpretation
The strong bearish body and the close well below the open are clear indicators that the upward momentum has stalled, and selling pressure is currently dominant. The small upper wick confirms that the bearish sentiment was present from the very beginning. This candle’s large range, encompassing the previous day’s action, is often a warning sign of a shift in market sentiment.
🕯 Candle Type
Bearish Candle with Lower-Wick Support — A strong bearish signal, moderated slightly by limited buying interest near the day’s lows.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 194.58
IB Range: 134.05 → Medium
Market Structure: Balanced
Trade Highlights:
10:47 Long Trade - Target Hit (R:R 1:4.57)
12:54 Long Trade - Target Hit (R:R 1:3.28)
14:03 Long Trade - SL Hit
Trade Summary: Despite the overall bearish market structure, the Gladiator Strategy successfully capitalized on the strong counter-trend buying attempts in the mid-session, yielding two high R:R profitable long trades. The final short trade was stopped out due to the sharp reversal back to the lows.
🧱 Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones:
25944
25977
26010 ~ 26040 (Crucial Rejection Zone)
Support Zones:
25880 ~ 25865 (Current Base)
25790
25740 ~ 25715 (Ultimate Support)
🧠 Final Thoughts
“Caution is the watchword until the range is broken.”
The market has now established a high-volatility range between 26,040 (Resistance) and 25,865 (Support). I will maintain a cautious bullish sentiment only until a decisive breach and close below the lower level of 25700 occurs, or until bulls achieve a solid close above 26100. The upcoming sessions are likely to remain choppy as this indecision plays out.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
CADJPY: Buyers' Dominance 🇨🇦🇯🇵
I think that CADJPY will update the high soon.
The market completed a correctional movement,
after setting a new higher high higher close with a break of structure.
A strong buying imbalance on a 4H time frame suggests a highly
probably rise.
Expect a movement up to 111.0 level.
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Trading Block Level (Explained Simply)🔍 What Is the “Block Level”?
In Drummond Geometry, a Block Level is a key support or resistance zone that forms when the market stops trending and enters congestion (sideways movement).
It’s often found about 2–3 PL Dots back from the current price — think of it as the “floor” or “ceiling” that price builds after a trend ends. As shown below, the down trend starting on 3rd of Nov. and lasting till the 07th is broken on the 07th via the CE candle which "creates" the block level (red box with high and low of 2-3 PL Dots back)
If the block level holds, congestion continues.
If it breaks, a new trend begins in that direction.
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💡 Theory – What You Expect
When trading at the block level:
Assume the block is strong unless proven otherwise.
Price usually does more than just a PL Dot refresh — it swings across the PL Dot and back again.
Flow slows down near a strong block area.
If the block is weak , you’ll notice good flow through it — this means congestion is ending and price will break out.
On the image above you can see that the 10th Nov. candle has weak flow (smaller than previous day, Zone 5 is holding, close and open are not far from each other,...), thus this indicateds that the flow slows down in the block area and implies that the block area is strong.
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⚙️ How a Block Level Forms
A block level sets up:
During congestion entrance , after a trend has ended.
Around 2–3 PL Dots back from the current bar.
Within the context of Envelope Theory — the block often appears at or near an envelope border.
The higher time period (HTP) will always guide what’s most likely to happen next.
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📈 How to Trade Block Level
1.Check your higher timeframe (HTP):
If HTP shows strength , trade for congestion action first , then expect a trend run .
If HTP shows weakness , prepare to trade against the block , aiming for a breakout through it .
2.Watch the flow:
Slow, choppy flow = congestion likely holding.
Strong, directional flow = block will likely break.
3.Use nearby energy areas (support/resistance close to price) to confirm entries.
The further out energy areas (stronger, wider zones) act as backup support/resistance.
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🧭 In Simple Terms
Think of the Block Level like a wall:
A strong wall = price bounces → sideways market continues.
A weak wall = price smashes through → a new trend starts.
Your job is to observe which one is happening using the PL Dot behavior, flow, and the higher timeframe structure.
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✅ Quick Recap
Concept Meaning
Block Level The base or cap of congestion, ~2–3 PL Dots back
Strong Block Price stalls or swings within range
Weak Block Price breaks through → new trend
HTP Strength Trade for congestion and trend continuation
HTP Weakness Trade breakout through the block
Goal Align flow + energy fields + PL Dots to confirm strength
DOW JONES INDEX (US30): Time to Buy?!
It feels like US30 has finally found a bottom.
I see a strong buying interest after a test of a key
historic support cluster.
I anticipate a pullback at least to 46648
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USDCAD: Bullish Bias Remains 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD will likely grow more,
following a test and a strong pullback from the underlined
daily support cluster.
Expect a rise at least to 1.4089
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How to navigate volatile market conditions after the government #XAUUSD TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
As I mentioned on Friday, if the closing price failed to stabilize above 4110-4120, gold would weaken further on Monday. Sure enough, gold again fluctuated downwards, testing the 4050 support level.
With Friday's panic selling gradually subsiding and the US government reopening, significant fluctuations are unlikely in the short term. Key data such as NFP and PMI may be released this week. Before the data is released, the market may be relatively cautious, and I think the market may tend to fluctuate and recover.
Short-term support levels to watch are 4050-4030. If the price retraces and tests this support again during the European session, we can try to continue going long on gold.
SPX Possibly Breaking SupportPreviously support held on this Higher Low, but it is now creating a bear trend by showing us a Lower High, and now breaking support to possibly create a Lower Low. Wait for a retest on the support which will act as resistance, or on the trendline for a low risk short entry. Feel free to drop your thoughts/opinions!
BCH needs to break monthly resistanceIn order to get the explosive move we saw with Zcash. BCH needs to break the yellow line on the monthly time frame. Everyone has been focused on breaking the red line which we did in July, but there hasn't been any substantial uptrend. This is because the red line is formed using wicks and the real resistance is the solid candle of the yellow line.
USDJPY LONGMarket structure bullish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 154.000
Touching EMA H4
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 110%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
Trading Idea: DXY — Potential Reversal PointsTrading Idea: DXY — Potential Reversal Points
Technical Overview
The Dollar Index has formed a significant resistance level, from which price has moved toward the first high-volume zone. The chart highlights three potential areas of volume concentration, each capable of acting as a reaction point.
Key Zones
Zone 1 — The nearest high-volume area, serving as the first potential support level.
Zone 2 — An intermediate volume accumulation area.
Zone 3 — The most compelling zone, featuring an unfilled gap. The presence of this gap creates an additional price magnet, as markets tend to fill price gaps over time.
Trading Scenario
The primary hypothesis anticipates price movement toward the third high-volume zone with the objective of filling the gap. This area is expected to produce the strongest reaction and potential reversal.
However, monitoring price behavior in the first two zones remains essential. A clear bounce with confirmation could indicate an earlier conclusion to the downward movement.
Risk Management
Wait for price reaction in each designated zone and seek confirming signals before entering a position. While the unfilled gap in the third zone increases the probability of price reaching that level, it does not guarantee a reversal.
EUR/GBP: Bearish Move Confirmed?!📉 EURGBP appears to be bearish following market opening this morning.
A significant downward movement was observed after testing a crucial horizontal resistance, along with a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH) as validation.
I anticipate a further decline, targeting at least 0.8780.
EURCHF: Another Selling Opportunity 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF will most likely drop after a test of a major intraday/daily
resistance cluster.
The pair completed a consolidation on that, forming a local
selling imbalance.
I expect a bearish movement at least to 0.92 level.
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BTC Outlook: Premium Rejections, Clean Drawdown Targets, and KeyBTC continues to respect the higher-timeframe bearish order flow. Price tapped into the Daily Bearish Block + IFVG around the $104K–$108K premium zone, delivered displacement, and broke structure to the downside.
From there, the market formed a clean 3H Supply (BB + FVG) where sellers aggressively re-entered. Price rejected that imbalance and continued the markdown phase.
Structure remains bearish with lower-highs and lower-lows being printed. Current PA is consolidating below key structure, signaling that liquidity is being engineered for the next leg.
We still have an unmitigated Weekly OB at $83K–$86K, which aligns with the macro drawdown target. This zone remains the highest-probability area for a deeper corrective bounce.
K ey Levels
Premium Rejection Zone: $104K – $108K
3H Supply + FVG: $98K – $101K
Immediate Support: $92K – $95K
Major HTF Demand (Weekly OB): $83K – $86K
What I Expect Next
Retracement into the 3H FVG / inefficiency before another sell-off.
Liquidity below $92K likely to be swept.
High-probability macro reaction once price taps the weekly OB.
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CONFIRMATION ENTRY (Safer Approach)
Use this for precise execution:
Mark the 3H/1H supply zone.
Wait for price to tap the zone → no instant entries.
Drop to M15/M5 and wait for a clear CHOCH (shift) or BOS confirming sellers.
Enter on the pullback into the refined OB or FVG.
SL above the M5 POI that caused the break.
First TP at relative equal lows or clean inefficiencies.
This keeps you out of premature entries and filters manipulation.
US 100 Index – NVIDIA Earnings and September Payrolls To Keep TrNovember has been a choppy and volatile period for the US 100 index. After opening the month with a push to a high of 26154 on November 1st concerns about lofty valuations of AI companies, more hawkish than expected Federal Reserve speakers and a US government shutdown have all combined to weaken prices which has seen the index twice dip and recover from support at 24608 (more on this in technical update below).
Now looking forward, sentiment towards technology stocks is going to face potentially its toughest test so far with the release of AI bellwether NVIDIA’s earnings after the close on Wednesday, which is closely followed by the delayed September US Non-farm Payrolls report on Thursday.
Expectations for NVIDIA’s results are high, with Reuters reporting analysts on average expecting the company to post a 54% year-on-year rise in Q3 earnings per share, with optimism for future revenue being driven higher by recent chip supply deals the company has announced with a string of companies such as Samsung. NVIDIA carries a huge 10% weighing in the US 100 index so these results could have a big impact on the direction of prices into the weekend, perhaps even further.
The reopening of the US federal government last Thursday has restarted the release of key economic data updates on the labour market and inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed the September Non-farm payrolls report, originally due in early October, will now be released on Thursday November 20th at 1330 GMT. This update could be important for traders as they try and work out whether the US labour market has weakened enough for Federal Reserve policymakers to be swayed to cut interest rates by 25bps (0.25%) again at their final meeting of the year on December 10th. Recent commentary from Fed speakers has been more hawkish than expected by markets only a month ago, so there may be an extra level of US 100 price sensitivity to the outcome of this release on Thursday.
US 100 Index Technical Update: 24608 Support Holds Again
Last week’s US 100 activity began with price strength on Monday, but this quickly reversed, seeing a retreat of nearly 5% into Friday’s low at (24542, November 14th). Importantly, that decline tested support at 24608, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the August to October advance. This level holding last week maintains potential for prices to stabilise to begin the new week.
Interestingly, a similar rally emerged the previous Friday (November 7th) following tests of the same 24608 retracement support, reinforcing the possibility that buyers are currently still active around this area. While not a guarantee of future price strength, with this level now limiting selling pressure on 2 occasions, this may be viewed as the first important support level for traders to focus on this week.
Potential Support Levels:
With 24608 established as a potential support, closing breaks below this level might be needed to suggest renewed downside pressure, leading to a further phase of price weakness.
A close below 24608 if seen, could then turn the focus toward 24221, which is the deeper 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with the possibility for extension of price declines to 24004, which is the October 10th session low, increasing if this 24221 support level were to give way.
Potential Resistance Levels:
If 24608 continues to hold selling pressure, fresh attempts at price strength might result. However, it could prove to be the still rising Bollinger mid‑average at 25490 that marks an initial resistance level, with a close above this level needed to suggest risks for the possibility of fresh upside momentum.
If the 25490 mid‑average does give way to the upside on a closing basis, renewed price strength could be the result. Such moves may then open scope for tests of 25742, the November 12th session high, and possibly toward 26277, the October 30th all‑time high.
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Bitcoin Daily Analysis – 1H Timeframe Breakout Watch!
Hello dear traders! Hope you’re having a great week so far and starting it strong! 🌟
Let’s break down today’s 1-hour Bitcoin analysis.
As you can see on the chart, BTC made a fakeout below the $94K level, and just like I mentioned in the previous analysis, this level is unbelievably important. If you haven’t checked that one yet, I strongly recommend taking a look — the conclusion was based on weekly support, resistance, and Fibonacci confluence. 📊✨
🔥 What Happened Today?
Even though sellers showed strong momentum with sharp-volume candles during the breakdown attempt,
they failed to reclaim $94K — buyers stepped back in and protected the level! 💪🟢
This is a positive sign for a potential short-term correction against the strong weekly downtrend we’ve been seeing.
BUT… higher timeframes still don’t give us a clean trend direction, so buyers must prove their strength once more.
That’s why I’ve marked a key level on the 1H chart:
➡️ $96,500
A break and 1-hour candle close above $96.5K could be the first real sign of a shift in structure — the first higher high + higher low setup on this timeframe. This level is important enough to justify a controlled, small-risk position.
⚠️ However… Be Cautious!
Short-term momentum still favors sellers, so it’s not a spot to take heavy risks.
I personally will use minimum risk if I take a position here.
📉 BTC Dominance (BTC.D) – Critical Factor
BTC dominance is super important right now.
Historically:
When BTC rises → Dominance drops → Altcoins pump harder 🚀
When BTC dumps → Dominance rises → Altcoins crash harder 💀
So it’s worth keeping an eye on alts during these moves.
🧠 My Personal Plan
I currently have one position on altcoins, and I will open another position on Bitcoin ONLY IF
➡️ 1H candle closes above $96,500
Why?
Because BTC dominance’s long-term direction is still unclear.
By splitting my risk between an alt and BTC, I increase my exposure without overleveraging or over-risking.
💡 My Recommendations for You
✅ First — NEVER trade without risk management.
✅ Second — This is NOT the time to take big risks.
Right now:
Monthly → buyers in control
Weekly → unclear
Daily → sellers in control
No side has a strong enough confirmation yet, so trade with caution.
Thanks for reading this analysis! 🌙
Always remember: the market has zero certainty. Your goal is to stay long enough in the game to build experience — that’s how you become consistently profitable.
I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments below! 😊💬📊
AUD/USD Holds Above 100-day EMAWhile the Aussie saw two-way volatility last week and a narrow open-to-close range between Tuesday and Friday, my bias remains bullish with scope for a move towards the 0.6580 high.
Risk reversals point to limited downside for AUD/USD on the options market. The pair also posted four consecutive daily closes above the 100-day EMA, with prices attempting to hold above the 20-day EMA. Monday’s strong bullish candle set the tone for the current range, and Thursday’s spinning-top doji highlights demand sitting just above the 200-day EMA.
The one-hour chart shows volumes rising during Friday’s rally but fading during the pullback, suggesting the move lower lacks real bearish intent. If AUD/USD can hold above the September low, the oversold hourly RSI(2) supports a bounce towards 0.6550. A break above that level exposes the weekly R1 near the 0.6580 high.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index.






















