Is a Bitcoin crash to $40–45k next? – October 2025In just over a week from now (currently October 23rd, 2025), Bitcoin’s 3 week chart may confirm a bearish engulfing candle (blue circles), unless price recovers $115k.
If you’re a fan of statistics (as I am), you’ll know what comes next: look left. Every single time a 3 week bearish engulfing candle printed with RSI at 57 or below, the result was the same, collapse. Don’t shoot the messenger; all I’m doing is looking left while influencers are looking up.
A confirmed close here would mark the fifth such candle in Bitcoin’s history.
Each prior event retraced to the Fibonacci 0.382, placing a downside target near $40,000. Right back into the historical mean reversion zone.
Such a drop would almost certainly trigger forced liquidations, particularly for leveraged institutional positions (yes, that means MicroStrategy). Debt and drawdowns make for a dangerous combination when gravity reappears.
On the 15 day chart, the situation is already deteriorating, price has exited the rising support channel, exactly as shown in the main 3 week chart above. A strong, high volume reversal from the bulls is required to invalidate this setup.
15 day chart
What about the $160k idea?
For those following closely, you’ll recall “ The End of Bitcoin Begins in 40 Days @ ~$160k (October 2025) ”, the analysis remains technically valid as long as structure holds.
Has market structure failed?
That's exactly what this idea aims to determine. If a 3 week candle body closes below the rising support channel, then it's over. There'll be no new all time high in this cycle, $126,000 was the top as forecast back in 2023 . Until then, the market hangs on a knife edge.
Any clues which way the market takes next?
Indeed there is and it's not from crypto Twitter.
The Bond market never lies. Specifically, the 3 month US Treasury yield, which is in free fall. A classic leading indicator of liquidity stress and risk-off sentiment.
Every time the bond market collapses while equities remain elevated, technology stocks follow soon after. And Bitcoin, like it or not, trades more like a high beta tech asset than an inflation hedge.
Tech versus the 90-day Bond market
For those still clinging to the “Bitcoin is an inflation hedge!” narrative, the chart disagrees.
If you thought the $19B liquidation event was bad, wait until "Hold my beer" Micheal Saylor reaches the point of forced liquidated on unmanageable levels of debt interest. “ Everything Money Plus ” describes the situation perfectly, have a lookie.
Conclusions
Well, here we are again. Bitcoin’s about to do what it always does. Everyone’s screaming “supercycle,” influencers are drawing triangles on charts like they’ve cracked the code to the universe, and meanwhile, the candle’s about to slap them all in the face.
If this 3 week setup confirms, price is going to $40–45k.
Not because of some secret cabal or “market manipulation,” but because… that’s what happens when you buy something that went up 700% and convince yourself it’ll never go down again.
Every cycle it’s the same story.
They say, “This time it’s different.”
But no. It’s exactly the same. Only this time, you’ve got a Discord group cheering you on while you lose your house.
So, will Bitcoin crash? Maybe. Will people still tweet laser eyes while it happens? Absolutely.
Then they’ll blame the FED, the ETFs, the moon’s gravitational pull anything but themselves.
So yeah, maybe it bounces. Maybe it doesn’t.
But when the market dumps and the influencers vanish faster than your portfolio, just remember: the chart did warn you. You just didn’t listen.
Ww
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Disclaimer
Alright, (puts dram down to one side) let’s get this straight, this isn’t financial advice. Obviously.
If you’re taking trading tips from strangers on the internet with adorable profile pictures, that’s on you.
I don’t work for a hedge fund, I don’t have insider info, and I’m definitely not sitting in a room with ten monitors shouting “buy the dip.”
I’m just looking at the same chart as everyone else and going, “Yeah, that looks a bit grim.”
So, if you sell your house, remortgage your cat, and go all-in on a candle pattern, don’t come crying when it goes the other way. That’s not a “rug pull.” That’s just bad life choices.
Crypto’s volatile. It goes up, it goes down, sometimes both in the same hour.
So, do your own research. Manage your own risk. And if you lose money, at least learn something, because that’s the only guaranteed return in this market.
