Failed breakout EUR/USD at crossroadsEUR/USD failed to breakout and formed a gravestone doji candle last week
further downside to the 1.175 level is likely
after that, EUR/USD is at crossroads - with Warsh being nominated and the narrative leaning heavily hawkish - EUR should retrace further targetting 1.13
only when the narravtive softens around Warsh to a less restricting policy expectation EUR could aim for 1.23
Candlestick Analysis
Nifty Analysis EOD – February 1, 2026 – Sunday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – February 1, 2026 – Sunday 🔴
STT Shockwave: Nifty’s 800-Point Budget Bloodbath!
🗞 Nifty Summary
Budget-26 delivered a session of extreme emotional turbulence and unprecedented volatility. The market’s movement today can be categorized into three distinct phases:
1. Pre-Budget (The Calm): Until 10:00 AM, Nifty remained in a disciplined 95-point range. A breakout of the HTF Trendline and IBH saw the index climb steadily toward resistance levels at 25,370 and 25,430.
2. During Budget (The Confusion): After marking the day’s high, the index began to slip. The sentiment turned sour following the announcement of an STT (Securities Transaction Tax) rise. Initially, options premiums remained subdued as the market processed the news.
3. Post-Budget (The Chaos): After 11:55 AM, the floodgates opened. A massive manipulation candle at 12:05 PM triggered aggressive long unwinding and fresh short build-ups. Amidst a vacuum of buyers and rampant panic, Nifty plummeted 800 points (3.15%) in just 25 minutes, crashing from 25,370 to a floor of 24,571.75. An immediate V-shaped recovery retraced back to 25,120, but the strength was fleeting. The index eventually gave back 400 points of that recovery to close at 24,770.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels
🛡 Intraday Walk
Today was not a day for the faint-hearted. The 12:05 PM candle will go down in history as a “liquidity vacuum” where the absence of buyers led to a vertical freefall.
The V-shape recovery was purely a product of profit-booking and high-risk bottom fishing, but the final close below 24,800 indicates that the market is still reeling from the tax implications.
We are now in a “no-man’s land” technically; we must wait for the dust to settle before building a fresh structural view.
📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 254.37
IB Range: 104..20 → Medium
Market Structure: Balanced
Trade Highlights:
10:11 Long Trade: Target Hit (1:2.47) (HTF Trendline Breakout).
11:08 Long Trade: SL Hit (R1 Breakout attempt failed as news leaked).
12:01 Short Trade: SL Hit (Initial IBL breakdown whipsaw).
12:15 Short Trade: Trailing Target Hit (1:4.36) (The “Big One” — IBL + PPDL Breakdown).
Trade Summary: The morning provided a clean winner, but the mid-day news shift resulted in a choppy period. However, the strategy excelled during the panic; the 12:15 PM short entry captured the meat of the 800-point fall, delivering a massive 1:4.36 R:R that turned a difficult day into a highly profitable one.
🧠 Final Thoughts
“Panic has no logic, and neither does a 3% fall in 25 minutes.”
The Budget has fundamentally altered the playing field. The STT news was the catalyst for a structural reset.
For now, there is nothing next but to wait.
We need the index to find a new equilibrium and for the weekly expiry to clear the “bad blood” from the system.
Stay away from the noise, protect your capital, and let the market settle.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
BTCUSD - Cycle Analysis UpdateHi guys! 👋
🔔 As you can see on the chart, we are following the setup precisely.
🔔 I'm still expecting another red candle to complete the Three Black (Red) Crows pattern.
🔔 The third red candle will signal us for a short-term uptrend to revisit $100K and have a steep drop.
🔔 There's also a chance of having an extended impulsive moves which consists of 9 waves.
🔔 Nevertheless, the next week's candle is much important. The original Cycle Analysis is attached to this article.
✊ Good luck with your trades! ✊
• If you like the idea, hit the 🚀 button
• Please ✍️ your thoughts in the Comments section
• And follow me for more updates.
SASOL (SOL)- JSEPrice has recently struggled near key resistance levels and is showing signs of slowdown after multiple attempts to push higher, which could signal a short-term pullback to structural support zones.
📌 Summary
This idea assumes a temporary pullback first, offering a “buy low” opportunity ahead of a larger upside continuation. The trade plan doesn’t chase short-term strength — it anticipates a measured retracement into strong technical support before committing capital.
31.01.26 Price action Recap BTCUSD (ICT Method)I can see a recent low, 2 fair value gaps, an OrderBlock and the previous days' high.
These matter because Price has just expanded lower.
What I hope to see, or rather how I hope to see price retrace bullishly depends largely on what she does next.
There are two possible scenarios:
- Price could retrace immediately with shallow moves and then expand lower into my weekly point of interest.
- Price could take out the most recent low it created in the form of a stop hunt, rally and then retrace into a point of interest and head for the fair value gap.
The third scenario is that I'm wrong and price will just expand into my weekly point of interest without retracing to the 4H fair value gap.
Let's see.
Cheers.
USDCHF: impulse completed, corrective wave in progressUSDCHF remains under pressure amid demand for safe-haven currencies and expectations of a softer Fed stance. The Swiss franc continues to attract defensive flows, keeping the broader bias bearish. The current price action reflects liquidity redistribution after a strong downside impulse.
From a technical and Elliott Wave perspective, the market has completed a bearish impulse wave (3), sweeping liquidity below local lows. The current consolidation near the weak low suggests the development of a corrective wave (4). The primary scenario expects a corrective rebound toward the 0.8065 – 0.8380 supply zone, aligned with prior structure and EMA resistance. Once wave (4) is complete, a continuation lower in wave (5) is expected. A deeper correction is possible, but the bearish structure remains intact below 0.84–0.85.
Short trade Trade Details
Entry: 82,996.41
Take Profit: 80,831.97 (2.60%)
Stop Loss: 83,240.22 (0.29%)
Risk–Reward: 8.88R
🔴 Directional Bias
Sell-side continuation following buy-side failure:
🧠 Market Sentiment
Prior sessions engineered buy-side liquidity above equal highs
London AM opened with a failure to sustain above the value
Aggressive rejection from the premium confirms the distribution is complete
Sentiment flipped decisively bearish as trapped longs were forced to exit
This reflects institutional unloading, not retail noise.
🧩 Structural Context
Clear lower high formed after buy-side sweep
Breakdown below the intraday range support
Bearish displacement confirms BOS to the downside
No bullish response on retest → sellers in control
Structure strongly favours sell-side expansion.
📊 Liquidity & Value
Entry taken after:
Buy-side liquidity taken
Return to inefficiency / FVG
Price accepted below prior value → premium distribution confirmed
Downside liquidity resting toward prior range lows
We assume this is a liquidity-driven continuation, not exhaustion.
⏱️ Session Advantage (London AM)
London is the primary distribution window
Ideal for:
Reversals after Asia manipulation
Trend continuation after NY positioning
Lack of early London bid strength validated the short bias
Session timing adds a probability edge.
❌ Invalidation Criteria
Reclaim and acceptance above London highs
Bullish displacement through the premium
Failure to expand after sell-side entry
None present at execution.
🧾 Summary
BTCUSD shows sell-side continuation sentiment following a London-session rejection from premium after buy-side liquidity was taken. Bearish BOS and acceptance below the value support further downside expansion toward resting liquidity.
USDJPY: More Growth Ahead 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is going to finally fill a gap down opening.
A strong bullish momentum indicates a highly probable
bullish continuation and a test of 155.6 level soon.
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Nasdaq (Futures) - 1,100-1,300 Ticks Swing OpportunityBullish Strength All Week, Above $26,000 - $26,200 Until Thursday Came Around. The Selling Pressure Was So Great, The Majority Of Gains Throughout The Week Vanished!
I Am Studying Obvious Levels Of Liquidity And Based Of My HTF Analysis, We Could Be In For A Continuation To The Downside With My Interest Resting Below 25365.25 Which Is Over 1,000 Ticks.
Next Weeks NWOG Will Give Me A Clearer View Of When This Delivery Can Occur.
A Premium Gap Open Could Signify One Last Short-Term Rally, Catching Those Who Has Held Onto Their Position Throughout The Weekend And Placed Their Stop Loss Above $25,940 & $26,050
Nifty Analysis EOD – January 30, 2026 – Friday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – January 30, 2026 – Friday 🔴
The Calm Before the Storm: Nifty Coils for Budget-26!
🗞 Nifty Summary
As predicted, Friday was a “silent” consolidation session characterized by narrow range-bound movement and pre-event manipulation.
The day started with an unexpected 150-point Gap Down that tested our second support at 25,270. Nifty found its footing at the Fib 0.786 level, which acted as a rock-solid floor throughout the day.
A late-session attempt to break the IBH and the Long-Term Trendline at 1:50 PM briefly crossed the 25,335 mark, but the momentum faded precisely at the Fib 0.618 retracement level.
Nifty eventually closed at 25,320.65 (-0.39%), positioning itself exactly in the center of a high-stakes 700-point battlefield.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart with Levels
🛡 Intraday Walk
The session was a classic “wait-and-watch” game.
The 157-point range—significantly lower than the Gladiator average of 260—confirms that institutional players are sitting on the sidelines ahead of Sunday’s Budget.
While the intraday volatility offered some scalp opportunities, the false IBH breakout served as a trap for those over-anticipating the move.
The market is now balanced on a knife-edge, with the daily close sitting equidistant from major targets on both sides.
📉 Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 25,247.55
High: 25,370.70
Low: 25,213.65
Close: 25,320.65
Change: -98.25 (-0.39%)
🏗️ Structure Breakdown
Type: Small Bullish Candle according CDO (Bearish according to PDC)
Range: ≈ 157 points — significantly compressed volatility.
Body: ≈ 73 points — mild selling pressure from the gap-up rejection. (Same size of Previous day)
Upper Wick: ≈ 123 points — strong supply rejection from the 25,370 zone.
Lower Wick: ≈ 34 points — limited buying interest at the extreme lows.
📚 Interpretation
The candle structure is the definition of indecision. The long upper wick proves that sellers are still capping any pre-emptive rallies, while the narrow body reflects a lack of directional conviction. The market has effectively “coiled,” and this compression usually leads to a violent expansion once the Budget news hits the tape.
🕯 Candle Type
Bearish Rejection / Consolidation Candle — Signals a standoff; the Budget session will be the ultimate tie-breaker for this structure.
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 254.37
IB Range: 104..20 → Medium
Market Structure: Balanced
Trade Highlights:
12:23 Long Trade: SL Hit (Mistake: Assumed HTF break based on STF trend; recency bias).
13:54 Long Trade: Trailing Hit (1:0.76) (HTF Trendline Breakout).
Psychology Note: As explicitly mentioned in yesterday’s note, today was intended to be a “No-Trade” day due to expected pre-event consolidation. However, greed and recency bias triggered entries in a non-conducive environment.
The market punished the mistake, providing a stern reminder that discipline is more important than catching every tick.
🧱 Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones:
25,370
25,430 ~ 25,460
25,515
25585 ~ 25605
25650 ~ 25,670
Support Zones:
25180 ~ 25160
25,060
25009
24970 ~ 24920
🧠 Final Thoughts
🧠 Special Budget-26 Note :
The Nifty has closed at 25,320, which is exactly the center point between the 25,670 resistance and the 24,970 support (350 points each way).
For the Budget day, it is highly probable that Nifty will test at least one of these extremes.
A sustained breach of the 25,160–25,460 range will be our “Prime Trade” signal.
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
Long trade 🥈 SI1! — Buy-Side Sentiment & News Analysis (1-Hour)
Date: Mon 28th Jan 2026
Session: NY Session AM
Execution Time: 3:45 pm
Trade Details
Entry: 115.270
Take Profit: 122.555 (6.32%)
Stop Loss: 114.785 (0.42%)
Risk–Reward: 15.02R
🟢 Directional Bias
Buy-side continuation/expansion:
Silver is in a clear re-pricing phase, transitioning from accumulation into sustained expansion, supported by both technical structure and macro conditions.
🧠 Market Sentiment Overview
Prior consolidation resolved decisively to the upside
Pullbacks into value were shallow and aggressively bought
Buyers showed strong acceptance above prior resistance
This reflects institutional accumulation and the continuation of a trend, not speculative exhaustion.
🧩 Structural Context
Higher-high / higher-low sequence firmly established on the 1H
No bearish CHoCH or structural failure
Break and hold above prior range highs confirms trend continuation
Structure strongly favours further upside rather than mean reversion.
📊 Volume Profile & Value
Acceptance above prior value high / POC
Volume supports higher prices — no high-volume rejection
Value migrating upward alongside price
This confirms a healthy bullish auction.
⏱️ Session Behaviour (NY AM)
Asia built the base
London extended structure
NY AM delivered continuation and expansion
NY AM is historically the strongest session for metals trend extension, adding timing confluence.
📰 News & Macro Context (Why Silver Works Here)
Precious metals bid amid:
Cooling expectations around aggressive rate hikes
Persistent inflation hedging demand
📰 Silver benefits from a dual role:
Monetary metal (real-yield sensitivity)
Industrial demand exposure (risk-on alignment)
No adverse USD or yield shock during NY AM
Gold strength provides tailwind confirmation for Silver
Macro conditions are supportive, not conflicting.
🧾 Summary
SI1! shows strong buy-side sentiment following acceptance above value and continuation of a higher-timeframe bullish structure. Shallow pullbacks, bullish FVG support, and a supportive macro backdrop favour continued upside expansion.
Gold Wave Analysis – 30 January 2026
- Gold formed daily Evening Star
- Likely to fall to support level 4600.00
Gold today fell down sharply after the price failed to close above the major resistance level 5500.00, as can be seen from the daily Gold chart below.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 5500.00 formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern long-legged Doji – which is now the middle candle of the daily Evening Star.
Given the overbought Stochastic and RSI, Gold can be expected to fall to the next support level 4600.00 (former top if wave 1 from the start of January).
Axis Bank Ltd (NSE) – Bullish Continuation SetupTimeframe: Daily
Trend Bias: Bullish
Current Price: ~₹1,370
Technical Overview
Axis Bank is trading in a strong uptrend, respecting higher highs and higher lows. Price has recently broken above a consolidation range and is sustaining above the key Fibonacci 0.382 retracement zone, indicating strength and acceptance at higher levels.
The structure suggests a bullish continuation rather than exhaustion, with momentum favoring buyers as long as price holds above the breakout base.
Key Levels (as per chart)
Immediate Support: ₹1,325 – ₹1,335 (Fibonacci base & prior range high)
Secondary Support: ₹1,285 – ₹1,270 (demand zone / value area)
Immediate Resistance: ₹1,395 – ₹1,405 (Fibonacci -0.382 to -0.618 zone)
Major Target: ₹1,590 – ₹1,600 (measured move / higher timeframe projection)
Trade Plan
Bullish Scenario (Preferred):
Entry: Buy on dips near ₹1,335–₹1,350 or on a decisive daily close above ₹1,395
Targets:
T1: ₹1,440
T2: ₹1,520
T3: ₹1,590+
Bearish Invalidation:
A daily close below ₹1,315 would weaken the bullish structure and may lead to a deeper retracement towards ₹1,285.
Indicator Confluence
Volume: Expansion visible during the recent breakout, confirming participation
Momentum (RSI/Trend strength): Positive and trending upward, no bearish divergence
Market Structure: Clean breakout + retest behavior
Conclusion
Axis Bank remains structurally bullish on the daily timeframe. As long as price holds above the ₹1,315–₹1,325 zone, the probability favors further upside toward ₹1,590+. Traders should focus on pullback entries or breakout confirmation for optimal risk-reward.
⚠️ This is a technical view only. Not financial advice.
NZDCAD LONG Market structure bullish on HTFs 3
Entry at both Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure Point
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
TP: WHO KNOWS!
Entry 100%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
XAUUSD M15 – Corrective Pullback Within DowntrendXAUUSD is analyzed on the 15-minute timeframe (M15).
The broader market context remains bearish as price continues to trade below the EMA200, indicating that the dominant trend is still to the downside. The EMA ribbon is sloping downward, reinforcing bearish momentum in the current structure.
Following a strong impulsive move lower, price has entered a pullback phase. This pullback shows corrective characteristics rather than a trend reversal, as price remains capped below previous structure and dynamic EMA resistance.
Price is currently reacting within a resistance zone that aligns with prior structure and EMA resistance. The rejection from this area suggests that selling pressure is still present and that the pullback may be nearing completion.
Further downside continuation will depend on how price behaves around this resistance area and whether bearish structure remains intact.
This idea is shared for technical and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.






















