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Capitulation

ETHUSD - Leverage Ratio Hits ALL-TIME HIGH BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is trading at approximately 2976 USD after a sharp 28 percent correction from the December 14-15 highs near 3980 USD to the December 18-19 lows around 2850 USD. While the hawkish Federal Reserve meeting triggered this selloff, on-chain data is flashing unprecedented bullish signals. Binance's Estimated Leverage Ratio just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of 0.611, and the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio spiked to 1.13 - levels not seen since September 2023. Traders are positioning aggressively for upside. The question now: is the capitulation complete, or does high leverage create liquidation risk? Current Market Context - December 21, 2025 Ethereum experienced one of its sharpest weekly declines in recent months, dropping from nearly 4000 USD to below 2900 USD in just four days. The catalyst was the Federal Reserve December 18 meeting where the central bank delivered a more hawkish stance than markets anticipated, projecting only two rate cuts for 2026. The selloff was exacerbated by: Broad risk-off sentiment across all crypto assets Bitcoin dropping from 108000 USD to below 92000 USD Over 1 billion USD in crypto liquidations within 24 hours Ethereum ETF outflows as institutional investors reduced exposure Year-end profit taking and portfolio rebalancing However, the bounce from 2850 USD and current stabilization around 2976 USD suggests the initial panic selling may be exhausted. More importantly, on-chain metrics are telling a different story than price action. CRITICAL ON-CHAIN DATA - Record Bullish Positioning Estimated Leverage Ratio - ALL-TIME HIGH Data from CryptoQuant shows Ethereum's Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has climbed to 0.611 - the highest level EVER recorded for this metric. This ratio compares open interest to exchange reserves, revealing how much borrowed capital traders are deploying relative to available liquidity. What this means: Traders are committing record leveraged positions anticipating favorable price movement Current reading surpasses ALL previous cycle peaks This environment amplifies price moves - modest spot changes can trigger large liquidations Risk appetite among traders is at unprecedented levels Taker Buy/Sell Ratio - Highest Since September 2023 The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio recently spiked to 1.13 on Binance - a level last observed in September 2023. A reading above 1 indicates market participants are executing more buy orders than sell orders. Strong taker demand combined with rising leverage reveals optimism dominating short-term sentiment Historical data shows spikes in this ratio often coincide with increased volatility Traders are positioning ahead of a potential attempt to reclaim 3000 USD This buying pressure is notable given ETH is trading around 2900-3000 USD WARNING: While these metrics are bullish, record leverage is a double-edged sword. If price moves against leveraged positions, liquidation cascades can accelerate downside moves dramatically. Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 45 Minute Timeframe Analyzing the chart from December 14-21, 2025: Phase 1 - Distribution and Initial Decline (Dec 14-16): Price peaked near 3980 USD on December 14 Initial breakdown below 3900 USD signaled distribution Steady decline through 3800, 3700, 3600 levels Lower highs forming on each bounce attempt Volume increasing on down moves - classic distribution signature Phase 2 - Capitulation Event (Dec 17-19): Sharp acceleration of selling on December 17-18 Price crashed through multiple support levels without pause Breakdown from 3400 to 2850 USD in approximately 36 hours This represented a 16 percent drop in less than two days Capitulation volume spike visible on the December 18-19 lows Long wicks on candles near 2850 USD showing buyer absorption Phase 3 - Stabilization and Accumulation (Dec 19-21): Strong bounce from 2850 USD low Price recovered to 2976 USD representing 4.4 percent recovery from lows Higher lows forming: 2850 to 2880 to 2920 to current levels Consolidation range establishing between 2950-3000 USD Decreasing volatility suggesting selling pressure exhaustion On-chain data confirms accumulation phase is active Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: 3000-3020 USD - Immediate psychological resistance and round number 3080-3100 USD - Previous support turned resistance from December 17 3200-3250 USD - Major horizontal resistance zone 3400-3450 USD - Secondary resistance from pre-crash consolidation 3600-3650 USD - Major resistance zone 3900-4000 USD - December highs and psychological barrier Support Levels: 2950-2960 USD - Immediate support from current consolidation 2900-2920 USD - Recent higher low support 2850-2870 USD - Capitulation low and critical support 2700-2800 USD - MAJOR DEMAND ZONE (Analyst Confluence) 2600-2650 USD - Deep support from November 2025 levels The 2700-2800 Demand Zone - Analyst Confluence Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has outlined a clear technical roadmap identifying the 2700-2800 USD zone as a major demand area . According to his analysis, ETH recently tapped into this important demand zone and has started to rebound. This move occurred when Ethereum broke below 3000 USD to reach a low of 2781 USD on December 18. Multiple analysts are highlighting this zone as critical support with strong buyer interest. The fact that price bounced sharply from this area and on-chain metrics show record bullish positioning suggests smart money is accumulating here. Chart Pattern Analysis The current structure shows characteristics of a potential falling wedge pattern: Lower highs connecting from 3980 to 3400 to 3100 area Lower lows from 3600 to 3000 to 2850 However, the most recent price action shows higher lows forming off 2850 This divergence between lower highs and higher lows creates compression Breakout direction will determine next major move Falling wedges typically resolve to the upside Fibonacci Retracement Analysis Measuring from the November 2025 low (approximately 2400 USD) to the December 2025 high (3980 USD): 0.236 retracement: 3607 USD - Already broken 0.382 retracement: 3376 USD - Already broken 0.5 retracement: 3190 USD - Already broken 0.618 retracement: 3004 USD - Currently testing this level 0.786 retracement: 2739 USD - Held as support (low was 2850) The bounce from near the 0.786 Fibonacci level is significant. This deep retracement level often marks the end of corrections in strong trends. The current test of the 0.618 level (3004 USD) will be crucial - a reclaim would be bullish, rejection would suggest more downside. Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve Impact The December 18, 2025 FOMC meeting was the primary catalyst for the selloff: Fed held rates steady but projected only two rate cuts for 2026 Markets had priced in three to four cuts, creating hawkish surprise Fed Chair emphasized data dependency and willingness to maintain restrictive policy Higher-for-longer rates increase opportunity cost of holding crypto assets Risk assets across the board sold off following the announcement Altcoin Season Approaching - January 2026 A growing number of market analysts believe the long-awaited altcoin season may finally arrive in January 2026, with new data suggesting a shift in liquidity conditions. Ethereum's market behavior has attracted analysts who are highlighting a shift in leadership, typically seen only after a strong Bitcoin rally. This is significant because: Bitcoin has already made its major move from 60K to 108K Capital rotation into altcoins typically follows BTC dominance peaks ETH historically leads altcoin rallies January sees fresh institutional allocations entering the market Ethereum-Specific Fundamentals Despite the price decline, Ethereum fundamentals remain constructive: Ethereum staking continues to grow with over 34 million ETH staked Layer 2 adoption accelerating with Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism seeing record activity Ethereum ETF infrastructure now established providing institutional access Pectra upgrade scheduled for Q1 2026 bringing account abstraction improvements DeFi Total Value Locked on Ethereum remains above 60 billion USD Security Concerns - Risk Factor The crypto space continues to face security challenges: December 20: A trader lost nearly 50 million USD in USDT to an address poisoning attack 2025 has seen over 3.4 billion USD in crypto thefts - a record year The February Bybit hack (1.4 billion USD) accounted for 44 percent of annual losses These incidents create headline risk and can spook retail investors However, institutional infrastructure and security practices continue improving ETF Flow Analysis Ethereum ETF flows have been mixed: December saw net outflows as institutions reduced risk exposure ahead of year-end The post-Fed selloff accelerated ETF redemptions However, long-term institutional interest remains intact January typically sees renewed institutional buying as new year allocations begin ETF structure provides easier access for institutions to re-enter on dips Ethereum vs Bitcoin Analysis The ETH/BTC ratio provides important context: ETH has underperformed BTC during this correction ETH/BTC ratio declined from 0.037 to 0.032 area This underperformance is typical during risk-off periods However, ETH tends to outperform during recovery phases Vitalik Buterin himself said years ago he would respect a technically competent rival - but none has emerged A stabilization in ETH/BTC would be early signal of ETH strength returning Directional Bias Assessment Arguments for Bullish Reversal: LEVERAGE RATIO AT ALL-TIME HIGH (0.611) - Record bullish positioning TAKER BUY/SELL RATIO AT 1.13 - Highest since September 2023 Capitulation volume and price action suggest panic selling exhausted Bounce from 0.786 Fibonacci level is technically significant 2700-2800 demand zone confirmed by multiple analysts Higher lows forming off the 2850 USD bottom Exchange outflows during dip suggest accumulation occurring Altcoin season expected January 2026 per multiple analysts Strong fundamental backdrop with staking growth and L2 adoption Pectra upgrade catalyst approaching in Q1 2026 Arguments for Bearish Continuation: Price remains below all major moving averages No confirmed trend reversal pattern yet Fed hawkishness could continue pressuring risk assets RECORD LEVERAGE = LIQUIDATION RISK if price drops ETH underperforming BTC suggests relative weakness Holiday liquidity conditions could exacerbate any selling 3000 USD psychological resistance may cap rallies Security concerns (50M hack, 3.4B stolen in 2025) create headline risk ETF outflows may continue into year-end My Assessment - Bullish with Leverage Caution: The weight of evidence leans bullish. Record on-chain metrics showing unprecedented trader positioning for upside, combined with technical support holding and analyst confluence on the 2700-2800 demand zone, suggests the capitulation low should hold. HOWEVER - the record leverage is a double-edged sword. If 2850 breaks, liquidation cascades could accelerate the move down significantly. Bullish Confirmation: A daily close above 3050 USD with volume would confirm the bottom and open path to 3200-3400 USD. Bearish Confirmation: A break below 2850 USD would trigger leveraged liquidations and open path to 2600-2750 USD. Short-term (next 1-2 weeks): Bullish bias. On-chain data strongly supports upside. Expect attempt to reclaim 3000 USD and test 3200 USD. Long-term (1-3 months): Bullish. Altcoin season catalyst in January, Pectra upgrade in Q1, and structural drivers intact. Targets of 3400-3600 USD valid for Q1 2026. Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes decisively above 3020 USD Volume on breakout candle exceeds recent average RSI breaks above 55 confirming momentum shift Trade Parameters: Entry: 3025-3050 USD on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: 2920 USD below recent higher low Target 1: 3150-3200 USD previous support zone Target 2: 3350-3400 USD major resistance Target 3: 3550-3600 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2.5 to first target Scenario 2: Buy the Dip at Demand Zone Entry Conditions: Price retests 2700-2800 USD demand zone Bullish rejection candle with long lower wick RSI showing oversold bounce Volume spike on the bounce candle Trade Parameters: Entry: 2750-2800 USD on demand zone retest Stop Loss: 2650 USD below demand zone Target 1: 3000-3020 USD psychological resistance Target 2: 3150-3200 USD major resistance Target 3: 3350-3400 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:3 to first target Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 45-minute candle closes below 2850 USD Volume confirmation on breakdown Leverage liquidations begin cascading Trade Parameters: Entry: 2840-2850 USD on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: 2920 USD above recent consolidation Target 1: 2750-2780 USD secondary support Target 2: 2650-2700 USD major support Target 3: 2500-2550 USD extended target Risk-Reward: Approximately 1:2 to first target Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing should not exceed 2-3 percent risk per trade CRITICAL: Record leverage means volatility will be amplified Reduce size during holiday period due to lower liquidity Use hard stop losses - liquidation cascades can move price fast Scale into positions using multiple entries rather than single entry Take partial profits at each target level (33 percent at each) Move stop to breakeven after first target achieved Monitor BTC price action as correlation remains high Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below 2700 USD on 4-hour or daily timeframe Lower low forms below the December 18-19 capitulation low ETH/BTC ratio breaks to new lows below 0.030 BTC breaks below 88000 USD triggering broader selloff Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above 3200 USD with volume Higher high forms above 3100 USD RSI breaks above 60 with momentum ETH/BTC ratio recovers above 0.036 Conclusion BITSTAMP:ETHUSD has experienced a sharp 28 percent correction from the December highs near 3980 USD to the capitulation low around 2850 USD. While the Fed meeting triggered the selloff, on-chain data tells a powerfully bullish story. The Numbers That Matter: Leverage Ratio: 0.611 - ALL-TIME HIGH Taker Buy/Sell Ratio: 1.13 - Highest since September 2023 Demand Zone: 2700-2800 USD - Multiple analyst confluence Fibonacci Support: 0.786 level held (2739 USD) Key Levels to Watch: 3000-3020 USD - Breakout confirmation level 2850 USD - Critical support / capitulation low 2700-2800 USD - Major demand zone 3200 USD - Major resistance for trend confirmation Trading Approach: The on-chain data strongly favors bulls, but record leverage means you must respect risk management. Wait for either: Bullish breakout above 3020 USD with volume to confirm bottom Retest of 2700-2800 USD demand zone for lower-risk long entry Breakdown below 2850 USD to flip bearish (watch for liquidation cascade) Altcoin season approaching in January 2026 provides a macro tailwind. The setup favors patient bulls who manage risk appropriately. Drop your comments below on the next move for ETH!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by officialjackofalltrades
2
Bitcoin Classic Bearish StructureThe weekly picture for Bitcoin is looking heavy. After losing the W21 EMA , price briefly caught a bid at the W50 EMA but was promptly rejected on the retest of the W21. The subsequent breakdown was swift, now finding a temporary floor at the Monthly21/W100 EMA. The W21 EMA has officially now flipped from support to key resistance, and any bounce will likely be sold into until that level is recaptured by the end of the Bear Market Are we looking at a consolidation here before another leg down to the W200 SMA? Or Bulls are looking for an abrupt pump back to the W21 ema??! Let me know what you think down Below!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sen_Crypto
What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It?What Is Market Capitulation, and How Can You Trade It? Market capitulation occurs when investors collectively surrender to market fears, leading to a sharp decline in asset prices. This article delves into the mechanics of capitulation, how to identify it, and ways to trade effectively during these tumultuous times. Understanding Market Capitulation Market capitulation refers to a phenomenon where a large number of investors simultaneously give up on the market, leading to a rapid and substantial decline in asset prices. This mass surrender is driven primarily by panic and fear of further losses. Capitulation often marks the peak of a bearish trend and is typically characterised by a significant spike in trading volumes and sharp price declines. Stock capitulation occurs when investors, overwhelmed by fear and uncertainty, rush to sell their assets to avoid further losses. This behaviour is often triggered by prolonged market downturns or significant economic events. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the S&P 500 experienced a nearly 5% drop in a single day, a classic example of market capitulation. This event led to a subsequent 17% rebound in the index over the following week, highlighting how capitulation can precede a market turnaround. Psychologically, capitulation represents the point where investor sentiment shifts from hope to despair. The collective mindset of "cutting losses" leads to a cascade of selling pressure, pushing prices to extreme lows. The intensity of selling can be so severe that it wipes out significant market value in a very short period. While capitulation can be daunting, it also presents opportunities. For contrarian investors and traders, these periods of panic selling can offer attractive entry points. As prices plummet, fundamentally strong assets may become undervalued, providing a chance to buy at lower prices. However, caution is essential as markets can remain volatile, and further declines are possible before a sustained recovery takes hold. Identifying Market Capitulation Identifying market capitulation involves recognising several key indicators that signify a dramatic surge in selling pressure and a sharp decline in asset prices. Here are the most notable indications to look for: Steep Price Decline Capitulation is typically associated with a rapid and substantial drop in asset prices. This sharp decline occurs as panic selling accelerates, pushing prices down swiftly​, often with large candles and minimal wicks. High Trading Volume During capitulation, there is often a significant spike in trading volume as investors rush to sell their holdings. This increase in volume is a key signal that a large number of market participants are exiting their positions simultaneously​. Extreme Bearish Sentiment Market sentiment during capitulation is overwhelmingly negative. News and investor sentiment indicators turn highly pessimistic, contributing to the panic and further driving down prices​. Technical Indicators Various technical analysis tools can help identify capitulation: - Volume Oscillator and On-Balance Volume (OBV): These indicators track changes in volume and can signal when selling pressure is peaking. A sharp decrease in these indicators often accompanies capitulation​. - Candlestick Patterns: Patterns like the hammer candlestick, which shows a recovery from intraday lows, and other patterns like the three white soldiers, can indicate that the market may have reached a bottom. The presence of such patterns, especially when accompanied by high volume, suggests a potential reversal​. - Bollinger Bands: These bands plot 2 standard deviations above and below a moving average. During capitulation, prices often touch or fall below the lower band, which indicates extreme selling conditions and potential oversold levels. This is especially true if the price falls beyond 3 standard deviations. - Average True Range (ATR): The ATR is an indicator that’s used to measure market volatility. A sudden, sharp increase in ATR during a downtrend can signal capitulation as it reflects the heightened panic and large price movements typical of such periods​. Exhaustion of Selling Capitulation often marks the point where selling pressure exhausts. This occurs when most investors who intend to sell have done so, leaving fewer sellers in the market. This depletion of sellers can indicate that a bottom is near and that a reversal may be imminent. The Impact of Market Capitulation on Markets Market capitulation has significant effects on financial markets, influencing both short-term and long-term trends. Short-Term Impact Immediately following capitulation, markets often experience extreme volatility and uncertainty. The intense selling pressure often drives asset prices sharply lower, causing values to drop significantly below their intrinsic worth. This phase is characterised by wild price swings as the market seeks a new equilibrium. The pervasive negative sentiment and widespread fear can further exacerbate the situation; across a broader downward move, there can be multiple points of capitulation with high volatility surrounding these additional selloffs. Long-Term Implications Over the long term, capitulation often marks the bottom of a market downturn. As the selling pressure diminishes and fewer investors remain to sell, the market begins to stabilise. This stabilisation allows new investors to enter the market, often leading to a gradual recovery in asset prices. However, it is essential to recognise that not every capitulation results in an immediate market reversal. Some markets may continue to decline or consolidate before a sustained recovery takes hold, with these new investors falling prey to the same fear-driven trading as another potential capitulation occurs. Psychological and Sentimental Effects Capitulation also has a lasting impact on investor sentiment. The severe downturn and associated losses can create a long-term negative perception of the affected assets, causing investors to remain cautious even after the market begins to recover. This psychological impact can lead to reduced trading volumes and prolonged periods of low investor confidence​. How to Trade Around a Market Capitulation Event Trading around a market capitulation event can be challenging due to the difficulty in accurately identifying capitulation in real-time. Capitulation often becomes clear only in hindsight, which complicates the process of trading or anticipating it effectively​. Avoiding the Falling Knife After identifying potential capitulation—characterised by a sharp price drop, likely on increased volume, and backed by extreme bearish sentiment—,it's typically unwise to try and buy during the initial plunge. The sharp decline often leads to further drops, even if they are less severe. Trying to "catch the falling knife" can potentially result in further losses as prices continue to fall​. Taking a Short Position During a Dead Cat Bounce One of traders’ approaches is to take a short position during a "dead cat bounce" or brief pullback before another downward leg. However, this strategy carries a less favourable risk/reward ratio because it involves selling low with the intention of selling lower. This might be effective but requires precise timing and strong risk management​. Waiting for Stability The most prudent strategy is often to wait until market volatility subsides and a bottom appears to form. Signs of a market bottom include the price overcoming a previous swing high or breaking through a prior level of resistance. This indicates a potential shift in market sentiment​, offering the trader an opportunity to buy low and sell high with a much more favourable risk-reward profile. Using Confluence in Analysis Combining different forms of analysis can provide greater confidence in identifying a market bottom. For example, if prices fall to a key support level or the decline seems disproportionately sharp compared to fundamentals, it might indicate an oversold condition. Momentum indicators and moving averages can also help confirm potential reversal points​. Risk Management Strong risk management practices are crucial. Limiting position sizes and always adhering to a stop loss can potentially prevent severe losses if the market experiences another leg down. This means that traders can potentially protect themselves against unexpected volatility and further declines​. Common Mistakes Traders Make During Market Capitulation Navigating market capitulation is challenging due to the extreme volatility and widespread panic that characterise these events. Here are some specific mistakes that traders frequently make during market capitulation: Panic Selling One of the most common mistakes is succumbing to panic and selling off assets hastily. During capitulation, the market is driven by extreme fear, and many traders sell to avoid further losses. This emotional response can lead to selling at the lowest point, locking in significant losses and missing out on potential rebounds once the market stabilises​. Holding onto Losing Positions Traders often make the mistake of holding onto a losing position, hoping for a reversal. When a trader holds a long position and witnesses market capitulation, the instinct might be to wait for the market to recover. However, this can lead to further losses as the asset's value continues to decline. Instead of cutting losses early, some traders let the losses accumulate, which can deplete their capital and limit future trading opportunities. This contradicts the previous point, and you may be confused about whether you sell or hold onto the trade. In any case, you will face a decision to either sell or hold on to their position if the capitulation is severe and protracted. It will always depend on the context and fundamental reason behind the capitulation, it’s worth noting that stocks generally recover over time. Trying to Time the Bottom Attempting to time the market bottom during capitulation is exceedingly difficult and can easily lead to additional losses. Capitulation typically involves sharp price declines and increased volatility, making it challenging to determine the exact bottom. Traders who try to catch the falling knife may find themselves buying into a market that continues to drop​. Overexposing Positions Another mistake is overexposing oneself to high-risk positions during periods of extreme market volatility. Instead of taking bolder positions, traders are best served to limit their exposure with smaller positions, stop losses, a diversified portfolio, and more judicious entries. It's essential to maintain a balanced approach and avoid putting too much capital into volatile trades​. The Bottom Line Understanding and navigating market capitulation can be challenging but offers potential opportunities for informed traders. By recognising key indicators and avoiding common mistakes, traders can better manage their strategies during these volatile periods. For a robust trading experience, consider opening an account with FXOpen to leverage these insights and trade with a broker you can trust. FAQs What Is Capitulation in the Stock Market? The capitulation meaning in the stock market refers to the moment when investors and traders, overwhelmed by fear and panic due to a prolonged decline in stock prices, decide to sell their holdings at any price to stop further losses. This mass selling leads to a sharp and rapid drop in stock prices. The term is derived from the military concept of surrender, indicating that investors are giving up on their positions. Is Capitulation Bullish or Bearish? Capitulation is both bullish and bearish. It is bearish during the actual event, as it involves widespread panic selling and a significant drop in stock prices. However, it can be bullish afterward, as it often marks the end of a severe downtrend and the beginning of a recovery or rally. This is because the selling pressure is exhausted, and buyers start to step in, finding attractive entry points. How Does Capitulation Work? Capitulation works through a cycle of fear and panic. Initially, as prices decline, some investors start selling to cut their losses. This selling pressure causes prices to drop further, leading more investors to panic and sell their holdings. This cycle continues until the majority of investors have sold their positions, leading to a sharp decline in prices. Eventually, the market stabilises as the selling pressure diminishes, often followed by a recovery. What Are Signs of Capitulation? Signs of capitulation include a sharp decline in prices, high trading volumes, extreme bearish sentiment, and market exhaustion, where selling pressure diminishes, stabilising the market. What Is Capitulation in Crypto*? Capitulation in the cryptocurrency market* follows a similar pattern to that in the stock market. It occurs when crypto* investors, driven by fear and panic due to a prolonged decline in prices, sell their holdings en masse, leading to a sharp drop in prices. This can be triggered by negative news, regulatory actions, or broader market downturns. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:GOOGLEducation
by FXOpen
1
BITCOIN SHORT TECHNICAL POINT OF VIEW From technical analysis point of view I would say that in next couple of weeks we can expect that price will reach 33.000$. Everything above 33.000$ is my area for placing sell orders. There are gaps which has to be filled. Every trendline should have at least 3 touches. From my analysis I can see that gap fill, perfectly connects with the 3rd touch of upper trend line. These gaps fills are also at 18.380$ ,14.280$ and 12.480$. 12.480$ is my target for next next couple of months. PSYCHOLOGICAL POINT OF VIEW Put yourself in head of other investors. Ask yourself: How are they thinking at this moment? Where they are placing their orders? Are they placing buy orders or sell orders? Are they expecting lower prices or higher prices? . . . I would say that currently we are in the phase of uncertainty. We need big push to the upside or big push to the downside to "trick" investors aka. create manipulation of the market which will cause placing more orders on false short term pump or dump which will reverse in much bigger move in right direction. FUNDAMENTAL POINT OF VIEW Regulation of cryptocurrencies will definitely affect markets. A lot of crypto projects will die through regulation process. I think we will hear a lot of bad news coming out before we start a new bull run. We need capitulation (big fall of prices) which usually is more than 30% in a single month. This capitulation will be the answer of bad news coming out. This is only my opinion what we can expect in next couple of months before new bull run. Nothing in this post should be used as financial advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Cognitiq
Tesla's Capitulation Bottom and the Significance of VolumeTesla, the renowned electric vehicle manufacturer, has experienced various phases in its market cycles, including a significant capitulation bottom. By examining the chart, it becomes apparent that volume played a crucial role in identifying key turning points and understanding market dynamics. I'd like to explore Tesla's capitulation bottom, the importance of volume, and its implications during the mark-up phase of a market cycle. Capitulation Bottom and Volume Analysis During Tesla's consolidation period from February to April 2023, the orange volume moving average line shows consistently above-average volume, even as the average volume increased. This observation indicates heightened market participation and interest. The consolidation phase witnessed a slight decline in volume as buyer and seller activity subsided temporarily. However, this period of consolidation created confidence to market participants, suggesting that there were insufficient sellers to drive Tesla's price back to the January 2023 lows near $101. Consequently, bullish investors stepped in, initially with low volume, but with increasing volume over subsequent weeks. Climax Volume and Recent Concerns In the beginning of June, Tesla experienced a second price mark-up phase characterized by a climax in volume. However, the most concerning factor is the lack of volume observed last week. While it's important to note that it was a short trading week, it remains the lowest volume seen since December 2022. The lowest all year. Even the Christmas week in 2022 witnessed higher volume. Last week was associated with a breakout to add to injury. Last week, Tesla achieved fresh highs for 2023, and a price target of $300-$305 is anticipated in the upcoming week or shortly thereafter. However, if volume fails to increase in the following week, it could signal potential instability, necessitating a thorough assessment of positions. Understanding Volume in a Mark-Up Phase In market cycles, volume serves as a critical indicator during the mark-up phase. During this period, when prices rise steadily, increasing volume signifies growing market participation and confirms the strength of the bullish trend. Robust volume suggests conviction among buyers and sellers, validating the upward momentum. However, a decline in volume, particularly after a climax or surge, can raise concerns as it may indicate diminishing participation or waning bullish sentiment. It is important to remain vigilant during such periods and conduct risk checks to protect positions. Educational Insights Volume analysis is a vital component of technical analysis, enabling investors to understand market sentiment and validate price movements. In a mark-up phase, increasing volume demonstrates conviction, signaling the sustainability of the upward trend. Conversely, declining volume after a surge or climax may warrant caution and risk assessment . Traders and investors should consider volume alongside other technical indicators to gain a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and make informed decisions. Tesla's journey has seen significant turning points, including a capitulation bottom, which can be identified by analyzing volume patterns. The consolidation period and subsequent mark-up phase provided insights into market participation and sentiment. Volume serves as a valuable tool to confirm trends and assess the strength of a market cycle. However, recent concerns arise from the lack of volume in the past week, warranting cautious monitoring and risk evaluation. By incorporating volume analysis into investment strategies and understanding its significance, traders and investors can enhance their decision-making processes and navigate Tesla's dynamic market with greater confidence.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by bitdoctor
4
Crypto capitulation eventThis is the capitulation event for crypto that I was waiting for. My previous Bitcoin idea and target are still valid, anyone long right now is going to get wiped out by the crash of Binance coin. I’m currently short. I also shorted Bitcoin and sold most of my alts here. If wrong then I will buy back higher on bullish structures. Even with the massive pump Bitcoin had here, Binance coin wasn’t able to invalidate the bearish structure. Absolutely terrible performance. Binance is still being sued, BNB is being artificially pumped by “someone’s” creative syphoning of client money. “Allegedly”. This pump was extremely profitable for me on my alts, an absolute lifesaver of a hedge. Sold most, will use profits to buy lower.
BINANCE:BNBUSDShort
by JaimeDeRothschild
XRP - Rejection from a danger zone. Capitulation Likely To Come.Ever since XRP reached its high of $0.585 it has been trying to break higher with no cuccess. If we extend fib. levels form the top to the bottom of $0.41 we can see that the XRP has attempted to break higher tho has been rejected for the second time recently. Rejection from a .786 fib. retracement level is common as it presents a danger zone where prices if get rejected can revers the trend temporary. Given that XRP tends move the last in the market ether to the upside or downside i thing we could be on a verge of a last capitulation as the rest of the market experiences second "flush" taking the whole market a little lower before reversing upwards. A final "flush" is what XRP went trough as SEC filled a lawsuit against Ripple in 2020. RSI is also showing bearish divergences. No one knows how deep can capitulation go but imo. it could go anywhere from $0.41-$0.36. We have to look for a high buy volume which typically a sign of a reversal. DISCLAMER I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well
Short
by AVA37
XDB rest of 2023 prediction. Depression before lambo!This is my expectation for how the XDB/USDT chart will play out for the rest of the year. As you can see, I am expecting an extended period of depression, giving us some huge buying opportunities. Somewhere between July/August we might hit the peak of this depression and capitulation, where we could see prices as low as $0.0004 at the absolute bottom. Then in September we might see a big 10x pump to $0.004, before dropping back to the $0.001 area again, and then we may pump to $0.01 before the end of the year, 25x from the bottom. The targets of my previous article are still in play long-term. This means that if you could catch the bottom in the $0.0004 - $0.0008 range, and hold it to the long-term target of $0.07, you could potentially make up to 150x your investment. Obviously, anything under $0.001 is a strong buy, but you need to keep in mind that it could go as deep as $0.0004. An interesting rest of the year ahead!
Long
by jariii
Bulls, Turn Up The Volume!Bulls have been shouting ALL last year, that the Bear market is over. It's fine. Everything is fine. Don't think about hyperinflation incoming, or the everything crash around the corner, or credit default swaps going vertical, or multiple banks insolvency, or dollar threatened as global currency, or Fed rates still rising all this year, or layoffs increasing, or personal credit usage rising more, or personal savings non-existent, or discretionary spending decreasing to substance vices only... or all the other things that we can see signaling this is the middle of the bear market, only. Not the end of it. Almost a year since my last post & I still see many Bulls (mainstream media & social media influencers), urging retail to "buy the dip!" & other nonsense. There have been dips last year, & there will be more this year. You can buy low now, & hold the bag soon, for banks & hedge funds that have counted on you todo for generations. Or wait until we actually crash first, & then buy at the bottom. Volume doesn't lie & VIX doesn't lie. Only when you see both big & strong, then you will see capitulation. Hold steady in waiting. You can scalp, or catch the small sideways swings, if you like. But don't fool yourself into thinking now is the time to go long. It's not.
AMEX:IWVShort
by UnknownUnicorn39070801
Measured Move? Or More?Short the rallies! Every rally is nothing but liquidity grab. You gotta be nuts to go long here, because: FOMC > more rate hikes 'may be needed' = 'are coming' Banking crisis. Worse than they let on. Yield curve inverted. Always preceeds major selloff. Recession is coming. For all the above. We in 70's economy, stupid! The Big Dump w/capitulation always comes near the Fed pivot. Next meeting may be the pivot. Every Bear has finished with VIX >40. This will be no different. Buy when VIX pops and stonk drops. Could get a measured move, could get a massive dump, I can't see the future, always guessing; GLTA!
TVC:SPXShort
by DaddySawbucks
14
XDB CAPITULATION! Getting closer to the bottomXDB has been getting rekt recently. There is a lot of fud surrounding the project, however, fundamentally it is still stronger than ever. This is typical of the capitulation phase. I have seen this countless times before, and I am 100% convinced that it's going to moon like crazy after this is over. I have already started DCA'ing here at 0.0014, but the chart does not look like it has found a bottom yet. I'm expecting the ultimate bottom to be in the 0.0006 - 0.0008 range. Anything under 0.001 is an EXTREMELY good buying opportunity. I will follow up with a zoomed out 1d chart to show you how big of a bullrun I'm actually expecting after capitulation. It is close to 100x if you buy it at the exact bottom.
Long
by jariii
The SPY Capitulation Bottom Will Surprise Global Traders.My research suggests the SPY is setting up a massive Capitulation bottom - and likely to move dramatically higher over the next 5+ years. It's too early to call this a confirmed bottom signal - but, it may be a great time to start looking for some "anchor trades" in the best stocks/sectors headed into 2024 and beyond. My research combines technical analysis, economic functions, cycles, and predictive analysis. While everyone seems to be calling for a massive price collapse, I continue to tell everyone "get ready for the RALLY". I could be wrong - time will tell. All I know is the technical/cycle and fundamental economic structure don't correlate with a massive price collapse now, or even in 2030~2035. What I see is a very big extended Wave-5 function that NO ONE is seeing. Follow my research. This is the greatest opportunity of your lifetime.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Watchlist 2023-02-28 #KDP #AHCO #HIMS #TGNA #AI SPY - No bias in SPY today with no significant economic data, low PM vol, looks like a high probability of an inside day after PD wide range bar. Short Watches: KDP - lower Long-Term Sales Growth as Fourth-Quarter Profit Misses. Down 1.7 ATRs on 1.2 RVOL at time. Key Pivot 34.15. Under the 200 MA and gapping under a channel. Negative is the rising 9 and 21 EMA. Looking to short underneath the pivot but being cautions as it could be support. Target to possibly 33.40 as I don't think it has another ATR in it. Long Watches: AHCO - Swings to Loss in Q4, Revenue Rises. Down 6.7 ATRs in the PM. Key pivot is between 6.90 and 16.60. Potential capitulation trade if we see a flush out below this level and then start to close above - look for long entries. The best trade will happen if there is more consolidation. HIMS - Q4 Net Loss Narrows, Revenue Climbs; Guidance Set above expectations. Key level is 20 not only because the pivot, it's also the base before the 2021 insane rally. Clear skies above this level on the daily. I don’t love the PM activity, looks like the shorts are in control for the moment, has ran up to 3 full ATRs from PD close. But a test and hold of 10 would be super favorable. Looking for longs in 10.00 holds. TGNA - down 10.0 ATRS in yesterday's PM! rallied past the key 17 level. Sequential pullback in PM on high RVOL of 6.5! Room to 18 next pivot. AI - forming a wedge on the daily. Would preferring to see one more daily of consolidation, with fakeout below 21.38 or a double top at 22.80 where prices has a more clear resistance to breakout from. Either of those scenarios I am interested in a long with target to 26 area. I focus on names trading elevate RVOL>2, trading past key ranges and pivots, preferably with news catalysts. Yellow = Support Purple = Resistance Red = short opportunity Green= long opportunity
NYSE:TGNA
by UnclePennybagss
BTC Bull Run Before 2024 Halving. BTC New Cycle Now?I'm long term bullish on crypto, and I'm happy for this new year pump. Congrats to those who placed longs at $15K, you should take some profits off the table now. Why? Because we're not out of the woods yet. If you read my previous BTC analysis, I've already mentioned that I'll consider BTC has reversed if it manages to break and close above Ichimoku Cloud at $32K, or at least above all EMAs at $28K, to hint a start of a new cycle. As much as I'd love to see $300K BTC, chances are, that ain't happening this year. Technical Analysis - Weekly Time Frame: - BTC is still below EMAs and Ichimoku Cloud - 20 and 30 EMAs are already below 200 EMA, 50 and 100 EMAs are about to cross below 200 EMA - Death Cross - Heikin Ashi has shown a reversal pattern which will be confirmed by this week's candle close - RSI was oversold in November - 2022 lowest low at $15,476, now it's been moving up sharply like January last year and is about to cross middle line upwards, hinting that there's still room for upward movement - RSI was oversold and high bearish volume on Nov 7th when BTC made a new lower low, signaling a potential bottom - All Strong Supports(Green) and Resistances(Red) are shown in the chart - A break and close above or below these key levels with high volume comparable to Nov 7th has a high chance to lead BTC to its next key levels/zones Fundamental Analysis: - FED is cooling down with interest rate hike, but a pause is not a pivot - Overall Macros are still the same, no significant change on the big picture - Most of BTC's circulating supply has not moved for almost 2 years, BTC price can easily be manipulated - Black Swan potentials: Mt.Gox BTC selling pressure, DCG/Genesis/Binance collapse, USDT/other stable coins depeg, SEC cases, new crypto regulations, geopolitics It's better to wait for some sort of confirmations every time BTC reaches a key level, to determine the direction it's going next While technical indicators are good, one bad fundamental news is all it takes to crash BTC Be Careful. Not a Financial Advice ;)
by OTWhale
2
VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINT OF CONTROL / RAISING THE CEILING DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO analysis of VIX a volatility index on the 4 hour timeframe. This is a brief update on VIX as we have had some interesting momentum taking place. POINTS: 1. Deviation of 7 points continues to stand and justifies Supply & Demand Pocket Placement. 2. RSI is currently OVEREXTENDED but PRICE ACTION continues to exhibit compressed behavior by only GRAVITATING around 20 POINTS. 3. MACD signals that past cycles have at least seen 2.00 POINTS on MACD'S deviation from Median but has only seen 0.50 since the beginning of this VOLATILITY CYCLE. IMPORTANT: With a new ceiling confirmed by price actions recent upward momentum it is safe to say that if price action surpasses 23 we will come to see elevated VOLATILITY for SPY, SPX, ES1! or NQ1!. I would consider a BULLISH & BEARISH scenario when it comes to VIX but no recession has ever come to an end without VIX first touching 40 POINTS but here it is. SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario for VIX we see an eventual RETEST of 19 followed by further consolidation and a BREAK of 23 POINTS by MARCH 8th. SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario for VIX we come to see a break of 19 POINTS to the downside followed by an inevitable RETEST of the 8 YEAR TREND LINE & would elongate capitulation due date. FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com TVC:VIX CBOE:VIX
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC