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SPY weekly thoughts for May 12th - 16th. Trump Pump?What’s up traders — this is my first idea post here on TradingView, and I’m hyped to finally share something with the community. In this breakdown, I’ll be covering a few key areas I’m watching: 🟩 Support zones 📉 Resistance levels 🕯️ Weekly candle behaviour 🌍 Macro outlook and possible catalysts 📌 Important notes ⚠️ My current bias Let’s jump in: 🟩 Support Zones: Buyers are still showing up strong in that $505–$507 range(I highly doubt their orders will get filled lol). it had been a reliable bounce zone — we’ve seen repeated wicks rejecting that level and price snapping back VERY quickly. Above that, $550 has developed into a new area of support, and right now that’s my main level to watch. If that gives out, I expect we’ll head back down to test the $507 zone again. But for now, bulls are doing their job. 📉 Resistance SPY keeps getting stuck around $573–$575. That zone’s been tested a few times now, but buyers haven’t been able to push it through. Sellers are stepping in there almost every time. 🕯️ Weekly Candle Context That’s three straight weekly closes below resistance. Bulls get some momentum mid-week, but by Friday, sellers take over. It’s showing signs of a stall — like the market’s running out of gas near the top. 🌍 Macro Outlook – What Could Move Things There’s been some talk of softer trade discussions and early negotiations with China. If any of that turns into a real deal, it could be the spark SPY needs to finally break above resistance. But on the flip side — if Trump starts pushing new tariffs (even smaller ones), those moves tend to hold stocks back, especially in tech. So the big question is: Can SPY hit new highs if tech keeps cooling off and there’s pressure from new trade policy? That’s the tug-of-war right now — possible upside from improving global relations, but real downside risk from political decisions. 📌 Things I’m Watching: A weekly close above $575 would shift me to a bullish bias. If we lose $550, I’ll be watching closely to see how price behaves near $507. ⚠️ Current Bias Right now I’m FAIRLY neutral with a slight bullish lean, but very excited for this next weekly candle. The macro setup looks like it could support a move higher, but I’m staying decently cautious until we get a clear weekly breakout(+575) and close above resistance. Let me know what you think — and if you’re watching the same levels.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ThePlotThickens
11
HUGE +1,522% in 2 days from $0.61 to $9.90 $ASSTIt was clear from the very start this one will go insane because of the volume. It traded 315 million shares on first day when I posted about it. I sent out a message premarket at the very beginning of the move and it already had tens of millions of shares volume at that time. Then the next day it got to 241 million shares, you just don't see stuff like that in regular stocks. Awesome profits made along the way, can't wait for a new catch like that! NASDAQ:ASST
NASDAQ:ASST
by ProfitTradeRoom
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 7, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏛️ Fed Decision Day Amid Tariff Pressures The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, with expectations to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite President Trump's calls for rate cuts, the Fed remains cautious due to inflationary risks from new tariffs and migration policies. 📈 U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume U.S. stock futures rose overnight on news of upcoming high-level trade talks between the U.S. and China, marking the first discussions since the imposition of 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are set to meet with senior Chinese officials later this week. 🛢️ Oil Prices Rebound on Demand Hopes Oil prices climbed as U.S. production declined and demand in Europe and China showed signs of recovery. Brent crude rose 0.6% to $62.52 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate increased 0.74% to $59.53 per barrel. 💼 Key Earnings Reports Ahead Several major companies, including Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Novo Nordisk ( NYSE:NVO ), are scheduled to report earnings today. Investors will be watching these reports for insights into corporate performance amid ongoing economic uncertainties. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, May 7: 2:00 PM ET: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit Report (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
4
MARKETS week ahead: April 28– May 4Last week in the news The market is currently perceiving that there is sort of relaxation in the US-China trade war. This was the major premise which boosted US equity markets. The S&P 500 gained around 4,6% on a weekly level. A positive market sentiment and short relaxation on uncertainty brought the price of gold lower by 2% on Friday, ending the week at the level of $3.318. On the same premise reacted the US Treasury bond market. The 10Y US benchmark closed the week lower, at the level of 4,25%. The crypto market was also part of the positive sentiment, as BTC managed to make a break-through from previous levels and reach levels above the $95K. The US-China trade war continues, however, with a softener rhetoric, which brought market sentiment to the positive side. Still, it remains quite confusing, where the majority of analysts are not sure what the final deal would look like. Actually, it seems that nobody knows, even the US Administration. The latest comment from the US President on the topic is that eventually tariff rates will “come down substantially, but it won't be zero”. Also, the US President commented that he has no intention of “firing Powell”. The Financial Times posted an article in which the journal noted that Apple was planning to shift all Iphones assembly to India. Analysts, involved in the matter, reacted to this news with arguments that such a move is highly questionable, both from the logistic side and from a tariffs side. The federal Reserve withdraws crypto guidance for banks. The Federal Reserve revoked its 2022 and 2023 guidance that required banks to notify or get approval before engaging in crypto or stablecoin activities. As Reuters reported during the previous week, based on six sources, the ECB is considering further cutting of its policy rates at the June meeting. The relaxing inflation and drop in the economic outlook ECB members see as a good reason to further decrease their reference interest rates. China is targeting the supremacy in the AI industry and development in comparison to its US counterparts. As news reported, the China President Xi Jinping called during the previous week for a “self-reliance and self-strengthening” in China within artificial intelligence. This now represents a key strategic area for China when it comes to their US counterparts. JPMorgan published the results of a survey among investors over their perception of the US economy in the future period. There has been a consensus on a high potential of stagflation, while the majority of participants perceive the weak US Dollar during this year. The major risk is coming from the ongoing trade war, which will have a negative impact on the US economy, as per survey. Crypto market cap The crypto market is in green again. After several weeks of struggling, the crypto market finally made its final break-through and increased the value of the total market capitalization. This move was supported by the relaxation of rhetoric of the US Administration in an US-China trade war. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 10% on a weekly basis, increasing its total value by $262B. Daily trading volumes almost doubled from the week before, trading around $166B on a daily basis. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -10%, with $318B outflow of funds. The major coins which drew the total crypto market to the higher grounds was BTC. The coin added $183B to its market cap, increasing it by more than 10% on a weekly basis. ETH also performed well, with an weekly inflow of $ 23B, which increased its market cap by 12%. Other major coins also performed well during the week. Solana added $5,4B to its market cap, which was an increase of 7,5%. DOGE surged by 14,8%, adding $3,4B to its market cap. Among higher gainers was IOTA, with a surge in value of 27,3%, LINK was traded higher by 15%, Algorand gained around 19% w/w. The majority of other coins gained above 10% on a weekly basis. This week there were almost no losers on the crypto market. As for coins in circulation, this week Polkadot and Filecoin added 0,6% of new coins to the market, same as EOS. Maker made a significant increase of 0,8% within a single week. Stablecoin Tether increased its number of coins by 1,7%, which was one of the highest increases for this stablecoin within this year. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market also reacted on a positive sentiment caused by relaxation in rhetoric regarding trade tariffs. BTC futures were traded higher by more than 12% for all maturities. The positive development is that the long term futures returned to the levels above the $100K. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $99.770, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $105.755. Similar situation is also with ETH futures. Positive is that the long term maturities reached levels above the $2K. In this sense December 2026 was closed at price $2.043, while futures maturing in December this year were last traded at round $1,9K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Gold Approaches $3,400 Amid Weakening Dollar ConfidenceGold is rallying on a combination of safe-haven flows and Dollar weakness, approaching the $3,420 resistance. While momentum is elevated—resembling crisis-era extremes—further gains are possible amid continued uncertainty. If $3,420-$3450 zone holds, aligning with key Fibonacci extensions (drawn from the 2018 lows, 2020 highs, and 2022 lows), and trendline connecting 2016 and 2020 peaks, gold could follow through on its cup and handle breakout pattern toward $3,700 and $4,000. However, any geopolitical resolution or easing of trade tensions could trigger a sharp reversal, with potential downside levels at $3,000, $2,960, $2,900, and $2,800. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
A Broader Market Review...As we have all seen within the last month or so, the U.S. equity markets have been getting the worst ass whooping since 2020. And as much as we'd like to forget that absolute disaster, it does bring to thought the idea of buying general market funds (such as AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , or AMEX:DIA ) to gain a nice entry into the next bull market, whenever that may be. However, not everything is all smooth sailing. The unfortunate part of this market downturn is that no amount of technical astrology fortune-telling analysis could have predicted the market's reaction to the tariffs being levied on foreign nations. So we need to put our big-boy pants on and look at the market as if it isn't some automatic wealth generating pattern that points north-east all day long. Let's start with the tariffs. Firstly, we know there has been a 90 day pause on all conforming countries most notably leaving out China. It's not like that's anything special, just almost all our crap is made there. Unfortunately, we are observing what may be the greatest economic error of our lifetimes. For those who are lost, foreign governments DO NOT pay for the tariffs in the way we are told. The U.S. Government levies the tariffs on the exporter (Chinese companies in this case), who then pass it on to the buyer of the goods (think Walmart, Target, Apple, etc.), who then pass those charges onto YOU... Enjoy! So with an attempt at a full blown trade war, which the U.S. cannot win nor even has the industrial strength or infrastructure to compete, we can expect the markets to completely do a Bald Eagle courtship nosedive into new lows as observed a few weeks ago. But what will the Creature from Jekyll Island think of this? Well miraculously, Fed chairman Jerome Powell claimed that the Fed will NOT allow the tariffs to exacerbate inflation into new highs. Get that, the Federal Reserve will not allow economic movements that raise prices on an importing nation ( that's the United States by the way), to raise prices anymore. While he's at it, how about we just get no inflation ever since it's just that simple? And as if that wasn't enough, Donald Trump called for Jerome Powell to lower rates for some reason, saying that Powell was too late on his economic movement at the Fed. As it turns out, our plan for strengthening the economy is to.... weaken the dollar? Not sure why that's the case but at least we will be able to borrow more money at a cheaper price, as if the United States doesn't already have a debt problem. The Fed lowering rates would of course open the possibility of getting yet another wave of quantitative easing which will most likely be observed further down the road. Another round of QE, along with rate cuts, will of course send the equity markets to new highs on top of a weaker dollar. Speaking of a weaker dollar, we should lastly talk about the TVC:DXY which measures the comparative strength of the U.S. Dollar to other currencies. As it turns out in this scenario, the dollar is getting weaker and weaker every day, meaning that people are running from U.S. Debt like it's the plague. If we were going to get a weaker dollar, at least could we have a higher market to offset our inevitable losses? I guess not... Here is the TVC:DXY 1D looking back into late 2024. Lastly for what to expect out of the market. If the trade situation will all the tariffs and this neo-cold war cool down, we might see some tariff pauses or lowering which will of course fire the market into new highs. However, if the situation doesn't cool, our debt yields rise, the market is going to go south faster than a Canadian in December. On a positive note, macroeconomic events move slowly, so it should be clear when a turnaround is coming...
SP:SPX
by addatheriver0808
Gold Hits Fibonacci 3.618! What’s Next?GOLD (XAU/USD) Quick Analysis – April 2025 Gold just surged to $3,329/oz, reaching the Fibonacci 3.618 extension around $3,338 🚀 The trend remains strongly bullish, but the price is now extended far above key moving averages – signaling potential exhaustion. Key Levels: Support: $2,856 (Fibo 2.618) Next Resistance: $3,635 (Fibo 4.236) 🧭 Outlook: As long as price holds above $2,856 → the bullish structure remains intact 🎯 Strategy: Wait for a healthy pullback → buy the dip near support Or enter on a breakout-retest above $3,338 for potential continuation
TVC:GOLD
by yrizkiakbar
Bitcoin (BTC): Fake-out Above 200EMA | Sellers DominatingBitcoin had a nice rejection yesterday where we failed to form the BOS and break above the local highs, which resulted in a fakeout above the 200EMA and the price falling below that line. As we see the demand in downward movement, we are keeping our sell target active as long as we are again below the local highs (at $85,750). Markets sell exhausted, economy doomed....Be sure to have a tight stop-loss and small leverage on any position you would want to open. We expect to see a big liquidation hunting to happen soon thanks to the #China and #USA tariff war. Swallow Academy
Short
by SwallowAcademy
1
Gold Holds Haven Status Above 3200Gold maintains its safe-haven appeal, holding firmly above the $3,200 mark. The current trend met resistance near $3,250, and a decisive breakout could drive further gains toward $3,290–$3,300, fueled by rising trade war tensions and ongoing dollar weakness. • Downside Risks: If the dollar reverses or U.S.–China trade talks show progress, a drop below $3,200 may lead to pullbacks toward $3,190 and $3,170. A deeper decline could trigger a broader correction toward $3,100 and $3,090, helping to reset overbought momentum on higher time frames or set the stage for a deeper downturn. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
Crude Oil Holds Rebound Above $55Crude oil's sharp rebound from the $55 support—aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 uptrend—faced immediate resistance at the long-standing support-turned-resistance zone around $63.80, established in 2021. A decisive move above $63.80 may clear the way for further gains toward $66, $68, $69.60, and ultimately $73. On the downside, a drop below $58 would bring $55 back into focus. A clean break below that level could trigger further downside toward $49 per barrel, which aligns with the lower boundary of crude oil's long-term uptrend. With global powers competing for oil, key events this week include: 🔹 OPEC report amid tariffs and efforts to regain market share 🔹 US–China trade talks 🔹 Chinese GDP, IP, Retail Sales (Wed) Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Quantum's KWEB Trading Guide 4/13/25Analysis: Post-Close Options Activity (April 11): Data: System reports 469.32K contracts traded on April 11, with puts at 10.99% (calls ~89%). High call volume at $31/$32 strikes suggests bullish bets. Interpretation: Call-heavy flow indicates retail/institutional optimism, likely targeting a sweep above $31.35 (weekly high). Potential for a liquidity sweep trapping longs, aligning with ICT/SMT reversal. RSI (14) Level and Trend: Estimate: Daily RSI ~55 (neutral-bullish), based on April 11 close ($30.52, +2.97% from $29.62). Uptrend from April 8 low ($27.95) but below March 17 peak ($38.401) avoids overbought. Interpretation: RSI supports bullish setups (above 50), with room for upside before resistance (~70). A sweep to $31.50 could push RSI higher, signaling OTE retracement. Anonymized X Post Insights (April 11–13): Summary: Posts highlight Chinese tech optimism (e.g., DeepSeek AI, consumer spending), tempered by tariff fears (Trump’s 125% threats). Some speculate on KWEB breaking $31, others note volatility risks. Interpretation: Mixed sentiment leans bullish, with chatter about AI and stimulus driving buy-side interest. Tariff uncertainty suggests potential sell-side sweeps if news escalates. Potential Reversals/Catalysts: Liquidity Sweeps: Call-heavy options and X speculation point to a buy-side sweep above $31.35 (W-High), trapping retail longs before an OTE reversal to $30.00 (HVN). Institutional Positioning: High call OI suggests dealers hedging bullish bets, but tariff risks could trigger smart money to fade retail. Catalysts: Retail Sales (April 15) or tariff relief news could spike KWEB, while escalation could drive sell-side volatility. Why: Sentiment aligns with ICT/SMT, where bullish retail chatter sets up sweeps, and smart money reverses at OTE. Neutral-bullish RSI and call volume support a setup. Action: Log sentiment as neutral-bullish, expect sweep above $31 or drop to $29 on tariff news. Highlight for video: “KWEB’s call-heavy buzz could trap retail—watch for a smart money reversal.” Tariff Impact Assessment: Severe Exposure: KWEB’s holdings (e.g., PDD, JD.com, Tencent) rely on China’s internet economy, with significant supply chain and consumer exposure to U.S.-China trade. Tariffs (e.g., 125% proposed) raise costs for e-commerce and tech exports, hurting revenues. Example: PDD (Temu) faces U.S. import duties, squeezing margins; JD.com’s logistics chain is tariff-sensitive. Current Policy (April 13): Context: Trump’s April 10 statement escalates tariffs to 125% on Chinese goods, with no relief confirmed by April 13. Web reports (Reuters, April 4) note market volatility from tariff fears, impacting KWEB’s April 8 low ($27.95). Impact: Severe, as KWEB’s ETF structure amplifies holdings’ tariff pain (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent ADRs). Sentiment sours on escalation, driving sell-side sweeps. Tariff Relief Potential: Scenario: A 90-day pause or negotiation (rumored on X, inconclusive) could lift KWEB +3–5% ($31.50–$32.00), as seen in past relief rallies (e.g., February 2025, +1.6% on pause news). Fundamentals: Relief boosts consumer spending on KWEB’s holdings, supporting bullish MSS. Without relief, bearish pressure persists. AMT Tie-In: Tariff news creates imbalances (LVN breaks), with price seeking HVNs (e.g., $30.00) post-volatility. Why: Severe tariff exposure makes KWEB sensitive to trade news, fueling sweeps (buy-side on relief, sell-side on escalation), per ICT/SMT. Action: Rate tariff impact severe, monitor April 14 for negotiation updates. Video: “Tariffs could sink KWEB, but relief might spark a sweep to $32—stay sharp.” News/Catalysts Current (April 11, 2025) Closing Price: System Data: KWEB closed at $30.52 (currentPrice), +2.97% from prevDayClose ($29.62). Verification: Matches April 11 high ($30.63), low ($29.41), open ($30.12). Drivers: Positive: Call-heavy options (89% calls) and AI buzz (DeepSeek, X posts) drove the rally. Web reports note Chinese tech resilience despite tariffs. Negative: Tariff fears capped gains, with X posts citing Trump’s 125% threat as a drag. Sector Trends: China ETFs rose (e.g., MCHI +2.1%, April 11), supporting KWEB’s move. Why: Options flow and AI speculation fueled bullish momentum, but tariffs restrained breakout above $31. Action: Highlight $30.52 close, +2.97%, driven by calls and AI. Video: “KWEB jumped 3% on AI hype, but tariffs loom large.” Upcoming (Week of April 14–18) Events: April 15, Retail Sales (8:30 AM): Measures U.S. consumer spending, impacting KWEB’s e-commerce holdings (PDD, JD.com). April 16–18, Tariff Talks: Potential U.S.-China negotiations, per X chatter (inconclusive). Ongoing, China Stimulus: Rumored fiscal measures could lift Chinese tech, no date confirmed. Predictions: Bullish (+3%, ~$31.50): Strong Retail Sales (+0.5% MoM) or stimulus news boosts e-commerce, sweeping buy-side liquidity ($31.35). Bearish (-3%, ~$29.50): Weak Retail Sales (-0.2% MoM) or tariff escalation triggers sell-side sweep ($29.41). Neutral (±1%, $30.20–$30.80): Mixed data or no tariff news keeps KWEB near $30.00 (HVN). Why: Catalysts drive displacement (sweeps to OHLC/LVNs), setting up OTE entries, per AMT/ICT. Action: Set alerts for Retail Sales (April 15), monitor X for tariff updates. Video: “Retail Sales could push KWEB to $32 or drop it to $29—big week ahead.” Technical Setup Multi-Timeframe Analysis (Adjusted to April 11 Close, $30.52) Weekly Chart HVN (High Volume Node): Level: $30.00 (POC, near W-Open $29.59, D-Close $30.52). Role: Support, price consolidated March 24–April 11 ($29–$31). Stance: Bullish (price above HVN, defending $30.00). LVN (Low Volume Node): Level: $31.50 (near W-High $31.35, April 4). Role: Fast-move zone, price dropped post-$31.35 (April 4–8). Stance: Neutral (price below LVN, potential sweep target). EMA Trend: Status: 8-week ($31.50) < 13-week ($32.00) < 48-week ($33.50), downtrend but flattening. Stance: Neutral (price below EMAs, but $30.52 tests 8-week). RSI (14): Level: ~55 (neutral-bullish, up from 45 at $27.95, April 8). Stance: Bullish (>50, room to 70). MACD: Status: Above signal, nearing zero (bullish crossover April 10). Stance: Bullish (gaining momentum). Bollinger Bands: Status: Price at midline ($30.50), bands narrowing. Stance: Neutral (breakout pending). Donchian Channels: Status: Above midline ($29.65, W-Low to W-High). Stance: Bullish (breakout potential). Williams %R: Level: ~-40 (neutral, not overbought). Stance: Bullish (>-50, rising). ADR (Average Daily Range): Status: Expanding (~3%, $0.90/day). Stance: Bullish (volatility supports moves). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.20, April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers control). ICT/SMC: MSS: Bearish (lower highs from $38.401, March 17, but higher low $27.95, April 8, signals potential shift). Trend: Neutral (consolidation $29–$31, testing W-High $31.35). Summary: Neutral-bullish, price at HVN ($30.00) with LVN ($31.50) as sweep target. Indicators favor upside, but MSS needs confirmation. 1-Hour Chart Support/Resistance: Support: $29.41 (D-Low, April 11), aligns with W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($30.00). Resistance: $30.63 (D-High, April 11), near LVN ($31.50), W-High ($31.35). Stance: Bullish (price above support, testing resistance). RSI (14): Level: ~60 (bullish, rising from 50 at $29.41). Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought). MACD: Status: Above signal, positive histogram. Stance: Bullish (momentum building). Bollinger Bands: Status: Price near upper band ($30.60). Stance: Bullish (breakout potential). Donchian Channels: Status: Above midline ($30.02). Stance: Bullish (trend strength). Williams %R: Level: ~-30 (bullish, not overbought). Stance: Bullish (>-50). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.30, intraday April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers dominate). ICT/SMC: Buy-Side Liquidity: Above $30.63 (D-High), $31.35 (W-High), LVN ($31.50). Retail stops cluster here. Sell-Side Liquidity: Below $29.41 (D-Low), $27.95 (W-Low/M-Low). OB: Bullish OB at $29.80–$30.00 (April 10 consolidation, demand zone, near HVN $30.00). FVG: Bullish FVG at $30.00–$30.20 (April 11 gap, unfilled, aligns with D-Open $30.12). OTE: Fib 61.8%–78.6% from $29.41 (low) to $30.63 (high) = $30.05–$30.15 (overlaps OB/FVG/HVN). Displacement: Potential impulsive move to $31.50 (LVN) or $29.00 (below D-Low) on Retail Sales or tariff news. Summary: Bullish bias, with OTE ($30.05–$30.15) as entry zone post-sweep, supported by OB/FVG/HVN. 10-Minute Chart Closing Move (April 11): Status: Rallied to $30.52, closed near high ($30.63), strong volume. Stance: Bullish (buyers pushed close). EMA Direction: Status: 8-EMA ($30.45) > 13-EMA ($30.40) > 48-EMA ($30.30), uptrend. Stance: Bullish (EMAs rising). RSI (14): Level: ~65 (bullish, cooling from 70). Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought). MACD: Status: Above zero, bullish crossover. Stance: Bullish (momentum intact). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.40, late April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers control). ICT/SMC: Liquidity Sweep: Wick to $30.63 (8:50 AM, April 11) tested buy-side, no clear rejection yet. Retracement: Potential retrace to $30.05–$30.15 (OTE) if sweep completes (e.g., April 14, 8:00 AM). Entry Signal: Pin bar or engulfing at OTE (e.g., $30.10, 10-minute candle). Summary: Bullish, awaiting sweep above $30.63 or $31.35, retrace to OTE for entry. Options Data Analysis: GEX (Gamma Exposure): Status: Positive GEX at $31 strike (high call OI), neutral at $30. Impact: Dealers buy stock to hedge calls, supporting $31 pin or slight lift to $31.50. Explanation: Positive GEX stabilizes price near high OI strikes, aligning with LVN ($31.50) sweep. Stance: Neutral-bullish (pinning likely, breakout possible). DEX (Delta Exposure): Status: High call delta (+0.3, 89% call volume). Impact: Bullish pressure, as dealers hedge calls by buying KWEB. Explanation: Call-heavy delta fuels upside momentum, supporting buy-side sweep. Stance: Bullish. IV (Implied Volatility): Status: Moderate (~25%, vs. 20–35% norm for KWEB). Impact: Steady swings ($0.50–$1.00/day), good for ATM/OTM calls. Explanation: Moderate IV balances premium cost and volatility, ideal for OTE entries. Stance: Bullish (volatility supports options). OI (Open Interest): Status: Call-heavy (65% calls at $31, 20% at $32, 15% puts at $30). Impact: Momentum toward $31–$32, potential pin at $31 (high OI). Explanation: High call OI marks targets (W-High $31.35, LVN $31.50), puts at $30 guard HVN. Stance: Bullish (calls drive upside). Cem Karsan’s Application and Weekly Trading Breakdown: Gamma: High at $31 (pinning risk), low at $32 (breakout potential). Vanna: Rising IV (25% to 30% on Retail Sales) lifts calls, dealers buy KWEB, pushing to $31.50. Charm: Near OPEX (April 18), $31 calls hold delta if ITM, spiking volatility April 17–18. Volatility Skew: Call skew (higher IV for $32 vs. $30) favors upside breakouts. Weekly OI (Exp. April 18): 65% calls at $31, 20% at $32. Pinning likely at $31 unless Retail Sales sparks breakout to $32. Options Strategy: Trade: Buy $31 calls at OTE ($30.10, April 14, 8:50 AM), premium ~$0.50. Exit: $31.50 (W-High/LVN, premium ~$0.90), profit $0.40. Stop: Below OB ($29.80, premium ~$0.20), risk $0.30. R:R: 1.33:1 (adjust to 2:1 with partial exit). ICT/SMC Tie-In: Enter post-sweep ($31.35), retrace to OTE ($30.10), target $31.50. Vanna: Status: IV rise (25% to 30%) amplifies calls, dealers buy KWEB. Impact: Bullish lift to $31–$31.50, aligns with LVN sweep. Explanation: Vanna boosts delta near high OI, supporting OTE reversal. Charm: Status: OPEX (April 18) nears, $31 calls gain delta if KWEB hits $31. Impact: Volatility spikes April 17–18, favors quick OTE trades. Explanation: Charm accelerates delta, amplifying sweep-to-OTE moves. Timeframe Analysis: Weekly (Exp. April 18): OI: 65% calls ($31), 20% ($32), 15% puts ($30). IV: Moderate (25%), rising on catalysts. Stance: Bullish (calls dominate, breakout risk). Monthly (Exp. May 2): OI: Balanced (50% calls $32, 50% puts $29). IV: Stable (~24%). Stance: Neutral (consolidation likely). 3-Month (Exp. July 7): OI: Call skew ($33–$35, 60% calls). IV: Low (~22%). Stance: Bullish (long-term upside). Directional Bias: Synthesis: Positive GEX ($31 pin), high call DEX (+0.3), moderate IV (25%), call-heavy OI (65% at $31), vanna (IV lift), charm (OPEX volatility), and ICT/SMC (buy-side sweep to $31.35, OTE at $30.10) suggest a bullish trend for April 14, with potential retracement post-sweep. Why: Options data aligns with ICT/SMT (call OI = buy-side liquidity, OTE = dealer hedging zone), per AMT (LVN sweep, HVN reversal). Action: Focus on $31 calls, highlight pinning vs. breakout. Video: “KWEB’s $31 call wall could pin or pop—perfect for an OTE play.” Sympathy Plays Correlated Assets: MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF): Tracks broader Chinese equities, rises ~2–3% if KWEB rallies (e.g., $31.50), due to shared holdings (Alibaba, Tencent). BABA (Alibaba ADR): KWEB’s top holding, moves +3–4% on KWEB’s sweep to $31.35, driven by e-commerce/AI overlap. Opposite Mover: GLD (SPDR Gold ETF): Risk-off asset, fades ~1–2% if KWEB rallies (risk-on), as investors shift from safe havens to tech. Why: Sympathy plays confirm sector momentum (Chinese tech), while GLD hedges tariff fears, per ICT/SMT sentiment. Action: Monitor MCHI/BABA for confirmation, GLD for divergence. Video: “If KWEB pops, MCHI and BABA follow—watch gold for the flip side.” Sector Positioning with RRG Sector: Technology – Emerging Markets (China Internet). RRG Position: Improving (vs. MCHI ETF). Rationale: KWEB’s April 11 rally (+2.97%) outpaces MCHI (+2.1%), with RSI (~55) and call OI signaling strength. Tariff fears weaken absolute gains, but relative momentum grows. Tie-In: Improving quadrant supports bullish MSS, OTE entries at HVN ($30.00). Why: RRG aligns with sentiment (call-heavy) and technicals (above HVN), per AMT value area. Action: Highlight Improving RRG for video: “KWEB’s gaining steam in China tech—prime for a sweep setup.” Targets Bullish: Target: +3.5% to $31.60. Levels: W-High ($31.35), LVN ($31.50), next resistance ($32.00). Rationale: Buy-side sweep to $31.35 (W-High), breakout to LVN on Retail Sales or tariff relief, per ICT/SMC. Bearish: Target: -3.2% to $29.55. Levels: D-Low ($29.41), below W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($29.50). Rationale: Sell-side sweep below $29.41 on weak Retail Sales or tariff escalation, retracing to HVN, per AMT. Why: Targets tie to OHLC (W-High, D-Low), HVNs/LVNs, and catalysts, ensuring ICT/SMC alignment (liquidity to OTE).
AMEX:KWEB
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Reports Strong Q125 ResultsMorgan Stanley (NYSE: NYSE:MS ) Beats Q1 estimates with record Equity Trading Revenue. The bank posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.60, beating analyst expectations of $2.18. Revenue reached a record $17.74 billion, topping forecasts of $16.44 billion. The bank's equity trading revenue soared 45% year-over-year. It reached a new high of $4.13 billion as growth came across business lines and regions. Asia showed particularly strong performance. Prime brokerage and derivatives led gains, fueled by high client activity in volatile markets. Morgan Stanley shares dropped 1% after the earnings release. However, the stock remains up over 20% in the past year. Volatility in global markets helped trading desks outperform. Technical Analysis Morgan Stanley bounced sharply from the $95 support zone. Buyers stepped in near the previous breakout level. Volume increased and confirmed renewed interest. This was seen as Trump paused tariffs for the next 90 days as well. Current price action suggests a recovery trend. The RSI stands at 39, hinting at oversold conditions. A potential path points to $142.03, which acts as the immediate resistance level. If the price breaks $113 cleanly, momentum could carry it to $130 and beyond. If it fails, it is most likely to retest $95 support level. A strong break above recent highs would confirm bullish continuation. For now, Watch out the $113 and $142 levels closely.
NYSE:MSLong
by DEXWireNews
SPY Analysis: Navigating Tariff-Induced VolatilityContinuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management. Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart) Current Price Zone: Around $528.45 Key Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b) - Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b) - Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16 Support Levels: - Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short) - Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a) - Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a) - Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18 Trading Scenarios Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief): - Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level) - Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance) - Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk. Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear): Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support) - Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support) - Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area) - Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals. Thought Process & Final Thoughts The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
1
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (March/2025)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY March/2025 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China's consumer prices fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March 2025, missing market expectations of a 0.1% increase and marking the second consecutive month of drop, as the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. threatens to exert further downward pressure on prices. Still, the latest drop was significantly milder than February’s 0.7% fall, supported by a smaller decline in food prices as pork prices accelerated and fresh fruit costs rebounded. Meanwhile, non-food prices rose by 0.2%, reversing a slight dip of 0.1% in February, driven by increases in housing (0.1% vs 0.1%), healthcare (0.1% vs 0.2%), and education (0.8% vs -0.5%), despite a continued decline in transport costs (-2.6% vs -2.5%). Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose 0.5% in March, rebounding from a 0.1% decrease in February. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.4%, a steeper fall than a 0.2% drop in February, marking the second straight month of contraction.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
US-China Trade War: Impacts on Financial Markets The trade war between the United States and China has reached unprecedented levels, with the imposition of reciprocal tariffs that are upsetting the global economic balance. China has recently increased tariffs on American products up to 50%, while President Trump has temporarily suspended tariffs for three months, trying to negotiate with other nations. This scenario is generating strong volatility in the financial markets and profoundly affecting the Forex market. Analysis of the Impacts on Financial Markets Stock Markets: The main world stock exchanges are recording significant fluctuations. Asian and European indices have suffered drastic drops, reflecting investor uncertainty. Raw Materials: The price of oil and precious metals shows instability, with oscillations that reflect global nervousness. Gold, considered a safe haven, is gaining ground, exceeding the threshold of 3,000 dollars. Economic Sectors: Sectors such as technology and agriculture are particularly hard hit, with export restrictions and rising production costs. Impact on Forex The trade war is directly impacting the currency market: US Dollar (USD): The dollar is coming under pressure due to economic uncertainty and recession fears in the United States. The Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates further. Chinese Yuan (CNY): The yuan is under pressure, with the risk of lower exports to the US and a slowdown in Chinese economic growth. Safe Haven Currencies: The Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) are gaining ground, as investors seek stability amid global volatility. Commodity Currencies: The Australian Dollar (AUD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could be negatively impacted by fluctuations in international trade. Forex Strategies for Traders In a context of high volatility, traders must adopt targeted strategies: Constant Monitoring: Follow the developments of the trade war and the decisions of central banks. Diversification: Invest in safe haven currencies to reduce risk. Technical Analysis: Use analysis tools to identify trading opportunities based on market movements. Risk Management: Set stop-loss and take-profit to protect capital. This situation requires attention and flexibility from traders, who must adapt their strategies to the new market dynamics. If you need further insights or a specific analysis on a currency, I am here to help!
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
US-China Rift: India's Golden Hour?Heightened trade tensions between the United States and China, characterized by substantial US tariffs on Chinese goods, inadvertently create a favorable environment for India. The significant difference in tariff rates—considerably lower for Indian imports than Chinese ones—positions India as an attractive alternative manufacturing base for corporations seeking to mitigate costs and geopolitical risks when supplying the US market. This tariff advantage presents a unique strategic opening for the Indian economy. Evidence of this shift is already apparent, with major players like Apple reportedly exploring increased iPhone imports from India and even accelerating shipments ahead of tariff deadlines. This trend extends beyond Apple, as other global electronics manufacturers, including Samsung and potentially even some Chinese firms, evaluate shifting production or export routes through India. Such moves stand to significantly bolster India's "Make in India" initiative and enhance its role within global electronics value chains. The potential influx of manufacturing activity, investment, and exports translates into substantial tailwinds for India's benchmark Nifty 50 index. Increased economic growth, higher corporate earnings for constituent companies (especially in manufacturing and logistics), greater foreign investment, and positive market sentiment are all likely outcomes. However, realizing this potential requires India to address persistent challenges related to infrastructure, policy stability, and ease of doing business, while also navigating competition from other low-tariff nations and seeking favorable terms in ongoing trade negotiations with the US.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by UDIS_View
We’ve seen a solid correction in NVDA - Bullish?We’ve seen a solid correction in NVDA following its rally since early 2024. The stock has broken through key levels and managed to hold within the resistance zone between $80 and $90. We will most likely enter a sideways movement until the situation regarding tariffs becomes clearer. This could extend into June, after which we might expect an upward move toward the $132.95 zone. By early 2026, we are likely to see a new all-time high, especially if the trade tensions and tariffs between China and the US are resolved and overall uncertainty decreases.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by larsnicog
USDCNH Tests Key Pattern Resistance on PBOC’s Loose Yuan FixThe trade war between China and the U.S. is escalating, and the Chinese yuan is starting to feel the pressure. After the U.S. raised tariffs to a total of 54%, China responded with a 34% increase of its own. Now, Trump has threatened an additional 50% tariff hike if China doesn’t withdraw its retaliation. It appears unlikely that either side will back down at this stage, and the trade war is set to intensify further. In addition to retaliating, China is also preparing to defend its economy. According to several news reports, Beijing is planning to frontload stimulus measures aimed at boosting domestic consumption, subsidizing exporters to cushion the blow from reduced U.S. trade, and supporting stock market stability. The People’s Bank of China will likely play a central role in this effort, using tools such as rate adjustments and daily yuan fixings. The latest yuan fixing came in above 7.20, the highest level since 2023. With this looser fixing and ongoing trade war pressure, USDCNH is pushing higher. The ascending triangle formation which typically breaks to the upside is also supporting bearish bets on the yuan. If China proceeds with a small and controlled devaluation, as many expect, a breakout from this triangle pattern is likely. The potential target for the breakout could align with one of the parallel lines of the lower boundary of the formation, which are currently around 7.61 and 7.75, and gradually rising. With time, a move toward 7.80 is well within reach by the end of the year.
Long
by ftdsystem
Apple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL)Drops $300B+ in Tariff- Fueled Sell-OffApple Inc. (NYSE:$ AAPL) faced a massive sell-off on Thursday, April 4th 2025, with its stock closing at $188.38, down $14.81 (7.29%). This marked Apple’s worst trading day since March 2020. The steep drop came after former President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs targeting 185 countries, including major U.S. trading partners. As a result, Apple’s market capitalization fell by more than $310 billion in a single day. These newly imposed tariffs, effective April 9th, include a 10% blanket duty on all imports, with higher rates applied to specific countries. China, Apple’s primary manufacturing hub, will face a combined 54% tariff—34% newly imposed, added to an existing 20% rate. Other affected regions include the European Union (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and India (26%). Analysts consider Apple especially vulnerable to these policies due to its heavy reliance on overseas production, especially in China, where nearly 85% of iPhones are manufactured. According to Dan Ives of Wedbush, future exemptions to these tariffs may depend on Apple’s efforts to localize its operations within the U.S., a move hinted at by the company earlier this year. However, no details have been confirmed regarding whether Apple’s U.S. expansion plans will qualify for tariff relief. The timing of the policy combined with Apple’s exposure to international supply chains, led to a bear shift in market. Technical Analysis: Apple Breaks Below Key $197 Support Apple’s price action shows an impulsive breakdown below the key $197 strong support level. The price is currently trading around $188, trading towards next support at $167 as the immediate support. A drop below $167 could push the stock lower to a long-term support around $125, which was lastly retested in Dec 2022. On the upside, any recovery would first need to reclaim the broken support at $197, which now acts as resistance. The all-time high around $260 remains far away from reach unless the overall stock market sentiment improves. Looking ahead, the chart outlines two likely scenarios. In the bullish case, Apple may find support around $167, bounce back and attempt to break above $197, possibly re-establishing it as a support zone. In the bearish case, failure to hold $167 could push the stock lower to test $125, and if that level breaks, the price may continue downward. The current market outlook suggests a wait-and-see approach, to what happens at key level, as both macroeconomic news and technical levels continue to drive Apple stock lower.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by DEXWireNews