This is a fractal comparison on XAUUSD between the current sequence and that of December 2020.
At the moment Gold is trading on top of the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) using it as a Support and around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) using it as a Pivot. It still hasn't broken above neither the Symmetrical Pressure level (former Support, currently Resistance) of 1760...
Pattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price hit the 1D MA50 (green dotted line) and rebounded while the 4H MACD made a Bullish Cross.
Target: 69.00 (the 2.0 Fib extension) and 72.00 (the 2.5 Fib extension).
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Pattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the emergence of this Channel happened while the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) broke for the first time since February 11.
Target: The 1760 Symmetrical Pressure level (former Support, current Resistance) and if you seek more risk, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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Pattern: Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price has found support just above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and within the 8-month Higher Lows Zone (green). The RSI also hit its own Support Zone.
Target: 3.140 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension).
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Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price rebounded at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel and a Bullish Cross is emerging on the 1D MACD.
Target: 29.600 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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Pattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price just hit the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). The region within the 4H MA50 and 4H MA100 (green trend-line) has been the most optimal buy level since November. Also the RSI is very close to its Support Zone.
Target: 69.00 (just below the 2.5 Fibonacci extension) and 72.00 (just below the 3.0 Fibonacci...
The answer to this is not easy but at least on the short-term it appears it has. An early warning signal was the RSI Bullish Divergence as I mentioned on the March 04 idea shown below:
The biggest development is that Gold made its first Higher High today since February 23. It also broke the more recent March 01 Lower Highs trend-line.
However it has just met...
Pattern: Bullish megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy once the price touches the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) again.
Target: $69.00 (right below the 2.5 Fibonacci extension and on the Higher Highs trend-line of the Megaphone).
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Despite Gold's recent and continuous downfall, there is a unique technical occurrence that I spotted and have to bring forward for short-term consideration.
As you see on the chart, since November 24, 2020, every time XAUUSD's price is on Lower Highs (red), while the RSI is on Higher Lows (green), i.e. a Bullish Divergence, the price makes a bottom and...
Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) which is providing Support since December 15, 2020.
Target: 29.900 (August's Resistance) and if you are seeking more risk, then 31.500 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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Today Gold hit the June 19, 2020 low after a very aggressive 2-day selling sequence. The dominant pattern since the August Highs (All Time Highs to be more exact), is a Channel Down and to better illustrate it I have used the Fibonacci Channel.
As you see most of the price action since the All Time High (ATH) is concentrated within the 0.786 and 0.236 Fibonacci...
Pattern: Channel Down on 1D.
Signal: Buy is the current 1D candle makes a green closing as the price is on the Lower Lows trend-line and every bounce on the line within the Channel that closed on a green 1D candle, initiated the bullish leg towards the Lower Highs trend-line. 1,765 also happens to be the Support since November 30th and the 1D RSI is also...
Gold hasn't been acting itself lately as it has stayed too low for too long. The reason fundamentally is obvious. Following Pfizer's vaccine announcement, the medium-term Gold buyers came to a realization that the extreme gains of 2020 have (temporarily) come to an end and the only catalyst that can push the market again is the U.S. stimulus package. That has been...
Pattern: Channel Up and Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Bullish once the price makes contact with the 4H MA50 (strong buy accumulation level since November).
Target: 60.00 (top of the Channel Up), if seeking more risk aim at 62.50 (top of the Megaphone and 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which indicates the Higher High since November).
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Pattern: Rebound on the 4H RSI Support, and MACD Bullish Cross.
Signal: Buy as the price seems to be repeating the early December 2020 fractal, as it made its first stop on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Target: 1,865 (the 4H MA200) and 1,960 (the Monthly Resistance) in extension.
Recent Gold idea on the importance of the 1W MA50 on this Cyclical Bullish...
There could be a possible rising support line break, MACD and histogram is about to turn. I've placed a sell stop below the trendline to possible catch this short.
Gold has seen a rather strong selling pressure in recent weeks mainly due to the USD's strength and the continuous rise of the bond market, especially at the beginning of this year. Today's sharp drop after the Initial Jobless Claims put on a stronger risk-on sentiment on the stock markets, only made the short-term picture worse making Gold buyers panic....
Pattern: Channel Up & Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy once contact is made again with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Target: 60.00 (top of the Channel).
Most recent WTI idea:
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