President Donald J. Trump (the real market maker) There are traders… and then there’s Donald Trump, a man who could move multi-trillion-dollar markets without ever opening a Bloomberg terminal. For years, investors studied technicals, Fibonacci ratios, and order flow to predict direction. But from 2017 onward, one force bent all that — policy surprises and public statements from the U.S. President himself.
Trump’s influence didn’t end when he left office. Even in 2025, markets still respond instantly to his tariffs, trade policies, and economic commentary. He became, in every sense of the word, “The Real Market Mover.”
🧠 When Policy Became Price
Traditionally, markets move on data, GDP releases, CPI, interest rates, central bank minutes. But during Trump’s tenure and resurgence in 2025, words carried the same weight as data. Tweets, press briefings, and tariff announcements created knee-jerk reactions that dwarfed technical setups.
Price action no longer followed pure structure, structure reacted to political noise.
1️⃣ The Trade War Shock — May 2019
Event:
In early May 2019, Trump tweeted that tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports would increase from 10% to 25%. This came unexpectedly after months of optimism about trade negotiations.
Market Reaction:
The S&P 500 fell over 2% in two sessions.
USDJPY dropped as traders sought safety in the yen.
Gold (XAUUSD) spiked from around $1,270 to $1,300 in a matter of days.
Global equity markets — from Shanghai to Frankfurt — mirrored the sell-off.
chart : S&P 500
Lesson:
Fundamentals can erase weeks of technical buildup in hours. Chart structure provided direction, but timing belonged to policy.
2️⃣ Oil’s Verbal Rescue — April 2020
Event:
After the COVID-19 collapse sent oil below $20 a barrel, Trump publicly claimed he had spoken to both Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, saying they agreed to large output cuts.
Market Reaction:
chart ; WTI gain
WTI Crude surged over 30% in a single day, one of the sharpest one-day gains in modern oil history.
Energy stocks rebounded aggressively.
CAD and NOK, both oil-linked currencies, caught strong bids.
Lesson:
Market psychology is as powerful as supply and demand. Traders weren’t just pricing crude — they were pricing hope.
3️⃣ Bitcoin’s “Not a Fan” Tweet — July 2019
Event:
On July 11, 2019, Trump tweeted:
“I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money and whose value is highly volatile...”
Market Reaction:
chart : BTCUSD drop
BTCUSD dropped from $12,000 to below $9,000 within a week.
Altcoins mirrored the sell-off.
Volatility spiked across crypto derivatives exchanges like BitMEX and Deribit.
Lesson:
Even a decentralized market isn’t immune to centralized sentiment. In crypto, narrative drives volatility faster than fundamentals.
4️⃣ The Iran Strike — January 2020
Event:
On January 3, 2020, the U.S. conducted an airstrike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
Geopolitical tension spiked overnight.
Market Reaction:
chart : GOLD gain
Gold (XAUUSD) jumped nearly 3%, touching $1,600, a level not seen since 2013.
Oil (WTI) surged over 4% on supply concerns.
Equities and risk currencies sold off sharply.
Lesson:
Geopolitical shocks move markets not because of numbers, but uncertainty. Traders price fear, not fundamentals.
5️⃣ The 2025 Tariff Shock & Crypto Liquidation
Event:
In October 2025, Trump announced 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports, alongside restrictions on software exports and AI-linked technology. The announcement came suddenly during a campaign rally and caught the market completely off guard.
Market Reaction:
chart : BITCOIN drop
Bitcoin fell by nearly 14% in 24 hours, triggering the largest liquidation in crypto history — over $19 billion in leveraged positions wiped out.
Nasdaq futures dropped over 3% pre-market.
Gold (XAUUSD) broke above $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever, peaking near $4,125, while Silver (XAGUSD) hit record highs above $45.
Yuan (USDCNH) weakened rapidly as investors rushed into the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen.
Lesson:
When macro meets emotion, liquidity vanishes. No technical setup can prepare you for a macro shock of that scale. The market doesn’t just move, it reprices reality.
6️⃣ “Phase One” Relief — December 2019
Event:
After months of trade tension, Trump announced that the U.S. and China had reached a “Phase One” trade deal.
Market Reaction:
The S&P 500 broke to new highs above 3,200.
USDJPY rose as risk appetite returned.
Gold briefly cooled off from safe-haven highs.
Lesson:
Fear creates liquidity gaps, but relief fills them even faster. Markets always overreact in both directions.
🔍 Final Word
Trump didn’t just comment on the economy, he is a market event.
Every tariff, tweet, and offhand remark had measurable price consequences.
In 2025, when Bitcoin collapsed and gold surged to $4,000+, traders witnessed once again that in modern markets, politics and price are inseparable.
For those who rely only on charts, remember:
“technicals shows where; fundamentals decide when.”
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
