BITCOIN hit $60k and is -50% from ATH. Did it crash too soon??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit the $60000 mark in early session today, which represents a more than -50% crash from its October 2025 $126000 All Time High (ATH).
** Is it happening too soon? **
Given that we haven't even completed 4 months since the ATH, the question that arises is this: Is this crash happening too soon??
Short answer: YES. And the reason is simple and has to do with the market's macro technicals. Today's $60k Low isn't just a -50% drop from the ATH but it is also taking place extremely close to its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 1W RSI turned oversold (below 30.00). All this just the second week after losing the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which has been holding as the Support in almost the past 3 months of the 1W MA50 - 1W MA100 consolidation Rectangle.
** The 1W MA200 and oversold RSI **
That consolidation Rectangle has always served as the pattern that transitioned BTC from its early to the final stage of its Bear Cycle. However this is the soonest occasion historically that Bitcoin reaches its 1W MA200 from an ATH. On the 2014 Bear Cycle it took 59 weeks to do so, on the 2018 Bear Cycle 51 weeks (both were Cycle bottoms), on the 2022 Cycle almost half the time, 31 weeks not a Cycle bottom) and now we are 'just' 17 weeks (119 days) after. Needless to say, it is also the soonest it hit an oversold 1W RSI state, something that has historically coincided with a 1W MA200 test, so that's consistent.
** So what now? **
So what does this historically earliest crash mean for us today? Well most likely that we still have a long way to go. Given this aggressive drop, the market should continue to test at least the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), which is where the previous Bear Cycle bottomed in November 2022 (took almost as much time as the 1W MA50 - 1W MA100 consolidation Rectangle did from he moment the 1W MA200 broke) and we expect that to be around $48000 by May - June 2026.
However, based on the 4-year Cycle Theory, the Bear Cycle bottom should be around late September- October 2026. So practically the bottom could be even lower (potentially the 1W MA500 even as we presented on an analysis last month).
So what do you think? Is the fact that BTC crashed too soon to its 1W MA200 alarming? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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