*Yellow = 200 EMA | Blue = 100 EMA
This video goes over the divergence between the DJ:DJI and DJ:DJT. Currently, the DJIA is trending upwards, setting new highs, and lows. However, contrary to this movement, the DJTA is moving downwards heading towards a trendline shown in the video, but could very easily break through that trendline.
Why do I care?
Currently we are in a ABCDE formation down. Next target is 141 USD, where it will make a corection up to 151 USD for the (e).
In my last post i noted that transportations are also expecting a correction down, which should take IWM with it. Therefore the larger target of IWM is 112 USD. Best case Scenario we are looking at a target of 99 USD.
Dow Jones Transportation have just finished their wave 5 cycles up. Which means we are in store for a larger correction down. There we are looking at retracements to the 0.382 fib at 7800 or a 0.5 fib retracement at 6700.
If transportation were to drop, the SPX and S&P is going to drop too. Transportations has always been a early warning regardless to do that.
Welcome to Earnings Season!
Google and Amazon report earnings on the 25th after the market. Both will highly influence Friday's trading session.
Expected Move for the week is $41.25 +/- which is a 25% increase w/w of the expected move so put on your seatbelt.
Netflix missed horribly.
Fed cutting interest rates will be negative for the financials XLF.
Think we're going into a melt up. Powell all but confirmed a rate cut. Last week I mentioned watching Bonds closely, and that played out well.
I've had a long term target from 2017 coming into play here, we'll see what happens and if technicals remain relevant over longer time frames.
Earnings next week can shift the narrative either direction. I think much has...
On a long time frame, we have a “three little Indian” pattern consisting of 3 peaks and 3 rivers. Expect accelerated selling once we return to the 2nd peak high buy institutions
From $3000 - $3047.38 (The 2008 Financial Crisis 2.618 Fib Retracement Level) I expect selling pressure to be heavy.
We have already fallen out of the most recent ascending wedge 2 days...
I'd expect more volatility next week than the $33.75 move the options market is pricing in.
I'm leaning bearish going into next week. Not willing to commit to it unless I see a higher time-frame divergence though.
Leaning bearish because the underlying reason the market was rising was Fed rate cuts, which was a damaged with Friday's uber strong jobs report, it...
$53 expected move. Larger than prior week despite going pretty much nowhere. More interestingly, there's a $35 expected move for Monday (marked in gray)
The $35 Monday move is the result of the G20. We might hit $3,000 next week.
Goodluck next week gentlemen
Leaning slightly bullish due to the weight of the evidence but there are too many binary events coming up in the coming week that could throw off my thesis. Plus we rallied so strongly the last 3 weeks that I wouldn't discount the fact that the market might just consolidate while it waits for the G20 meeting.
Blew through last week's expected move ($41) and had a...
Neutral Call. I think the ' h-Pattern ' we have here will provide a nice bump in price but I think selling pressure will keep the market relatively rangebound especially during next week's shortened 4-day week.
Our Standard Deviation trend lines have been working quite well. I believe we have enough data to call them reliable.
I highlighted in a green circle...
DJT move since 24 December looks like an impulsive 5-wave pattern (With RSI divergence). Retracing to 10k is possible with coming earnings reports and profit taking. 10k - 9.5k will offer good risk/reward ratio. It would be wise to keep an eye on this.
Last week's call had me nervous for a second there. A very chaotic week, but I had several opportunities to put on a couple positions. Hats off to anyone who waited for that upper expected move. (two opportunities)
Large expansion for the expected move from last week to this week = expect volatility to pick up.
Couple quick notes:
- 10 yr / 3 mo yield inverted....
Not a whole lot else to say other than that.
Transports are the brother of Small Caps in my opinion as far as leading the rest of the market.
Just want to point this out because it's a canary in the coal mine and easily missed.
1 Wk % Change:
IWM: -5.52% (Leading)