BTC/USDTI think wave 2 of C has completed, I will open a short position for wave 3 of C with this setup.
Elliott Wave
Gold (Rose ) and SPX ( Jack ) relationship. 1/Oct/25XAUUSD ( Rose ) and SPX ( Jack ) since dunno when they are in closed relationship on "Titanic Ship".. But.. That "shxx" is obviously tilting heavily into 1 side.untill early/mid Oct at 7000 and 4000 nautical And when.Jack and Rose probably have to perform "you jump I jump"..But after that they will "ride" different "ships"..Where one still on sinking ship , the other is riding into "Titanic" sky ship"...
GOLD → Liquidation, but there is still a chance for growth...FX:XAUUSD has reached a new all-time high of 3871.6, marking its best month in 14 years (+12% in September). However, against the backdrop of high risks, the market is experiencing profit-taking and a deep correction. What next?
The high probability of a shutdown from October 1 is weighing on the dollar. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October is 90%, despite cautious comments from the Fed.
New tariffs on timber and furniture (from October 14).
Data from China: PMI growth (Manufacturing to 51.2). All this supports the bullish trend in gold. However, the end of the quarter, anticipation of NFP (but in the event of a shutdown, the publication of employment data will be suspended).
Technically, as part of the correction, the price is testing the upward support line, and the price reaction to the 3790-3780 zone will give hints about further movement...
Support levels: 3791, 3783
Resistance levels: 3831, 3847
A false breakdown and the formation of a reversal pattern relative to the specified support zone could trigger a recovery phase within the bullish trend. However, a quick return to support could trigger an attempt to break through and correct to 3759-3738.
Best regards, R. Linda!
BITCOIN → Correction before the breakout of 114.5KBINANCE:BTCUSDT , after the end of the correction, is forming a 3.5% rally and testing the important milestone of 114,600. It was not possible to break through the level without consolidation and at such a high speed. How long will the correction last?
Bitcoin is testing mirror resistance and, after a strong rally, was unable to continue its growth. The reason for the halt is a huge liquidity pool above 114,600. A pullback is forming. Earlier, the price ended a 3-week correction by breaking through the downward resistance. We can assume a change in sentiment towards the buyer...
Technically, the price is changing the nature of the market to bullish after the formation of a reversal structure accompanied by a bullish run. The 2-week high has been updated.
Resistance levels: 113850, 114620, 115900
Support levels: 113100, 112300, 111800
As part of the correction, the price may test the 113K - 112500 zone before returning to growth. If the market holds the price above 112K - 113K, it will confirm the bullish sentiment, and the positive fundamental background will support further growth.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Wave 3 Breakout – Targeting 1.18600 w/Elliott Wave ConfirmationOverview
This idea is based on a completed Elliott Wave impulse sequence (1)-(5) followed by a corrective ABC structure, suggesting the start of a new bullish impulse wave, likely Wave (3) of a higher-degree cycle. The breakout above the H4 high and consolidation near the Daily High supports this bullish continuation.
Technical Breakdown
Wave Structure: The chart shows a full 5-wave impulse up, followed by an ABC correction. Price is now pushing above the corrective high, suggesting Wave (3) is underway.
Support Zones:
H4 Low: 1.1728
Daily Low: 1.17122
Weekly Low: 1.16456
Resistance Zones:
Weekly High: 1.18200
H1 High: 1.18600
The breakout above the H4 High and Daily High confirms bullish momentum. The wave count aligns with a textbook Elliott Wave setup, where Wave (3) is typically the strongest and longest.
Trade Setup
Entry Zone: Between 1.17450–1.17500, after breakout confirmation.
Stop Loss: Below 1.17220 (Daily Low), allowing room for volatility but protecting against invalidation of the wave count.
Take Profit 1: 1.18200 – aligns with minor resistance and a conservative Wave (3) projection.
Take Profit 2: 1.18600 – based on Fibonacci extension and upper range of the Weekly High zone.
This setup offers a risk-reward ratio of approximately 2.5:1, ideal for swing or short-term momentum traders.
Wave Theory Context
Wave (1): Initial breakout from base structure.
Wave (2): ABC correction, now complete.
Wave (3): Currently unfolding, expected to extend beyond TP2 if momentum continues.
Wave (4) and (5): To follow, but not yet visible.
Final Notes
Watch for a retest of the breakout zone (1.17450–1.17500) as a potential secondary entry.
If price fails to hold above 1.17220, consider the wave count invalidated and exit the trade.
Keep an eye on macroeconomic news that could impact EUR/USD volatility.
That's good.Looking at this story I tend to believe that the full cycle of growth and correction has been completed, which should in theory open the way for a new impulse wave one.
August just closed with a bullish indication (3s bull) and we have a second green candle in a row (Heikin Ashi). That said, the OTHERS itself is rather treading water for now.
But I tend to think that growth has already started and now triggers are needed. As I have said many times, Powell's statements (alas) are such a trigger. Although the crypto market should have sent the US monetary authorities to hell a long time ago.
1H Chart Outlook on MP Materials Corp.On this 1H Chart outlook of NYSE:MP MP Materials, im still looking for the wave v in green to play out. but the outlook puts forward a couple of different paths. The orange zone holds and this marks the completion of wave (ii) in orange and price heads higher in wave (iii). Alternatively price could tag the 'Alternate Outlook Structural Level' at $61.41, before a potential reversal to make the wave V. We will soon find out which path it takes.
Recent position taken is shown on the chart.
$IWM – Small Caps at Bounce Zone📊 AMEX:IWM – Small Caps at Bounce Zone
Chart Context:
AMEX:IWM pulled back into Fib 0.382–0.5 zone (~239–240).
Price found support exactly at 239.4 pivot → matching MA bounce on daily.
Intraday structure = higher lows forming → possible reversal leg.
🔑 Key Levels
Support: 239.4 (pivot) → 237.6 (strong demand).
Upside Targets:
242.9 (Fib 1.0)
244.9 (1.382)
247.3 (Fib 2.0 extension)
Invalidation: Break below 237.6 negates bullish setup → back toward 234–232.
📈 Trade Bias
Bias: BTFD / Bounce Play while above 239 support.
Scalp Targets → 242–244.
Swing Target → 247–248 if momentum extends.
Risk Management: Tight stops below 237.6.
🧩 Takeaway
AMEX:IWM showing resilience at Fib support. If small caps confirm this bounce, it could spark a broader risk-on move across equities. Watch 239 → 247 range closely.
#IWM #Russell2000 #SPY #Trading #VolanX
ETH Elliott wave analysis 1/10 /2025In my point of view , The wave (IV) is end and we are going to finish the wave (5).The new wave ①, which has surpassed the top of wave (4) with a strong impulse, indicates that the beginning of wave (V) has likely started. Wave (IV) appears to have formed a b-failure flat, where wave C slightly exceeded 132.8%. Based on the Butterfly harmonic pattern from the higher time frame ETH analysis, the target price is projected to be in the range of $5,900–$6,400.
An alternative count is that the recent abc structure may represent waves 1, 2, and 3, with the current correction being only a minor retracement. This scenario requires further observation. However, the overall Elliott Wave structure still suggests that one more upward wave is needed to complete wave (5).
ETH HTF Butterfly HarmonicAs we can see, the Elliott Wave count for wave (V) is still incomplete. Combined with the Butterfly harmonic pattern, this suggests a target price in the range of $5,900–$6,400. The invalidation level is if wave (4) overlaps with the top of wave (1).
NZDUSD → Rebound from support. Focus on 0.5800FX:NZDUSD is undergoing a correction amid a rebound in the US dollar, testing trend support and forming a reversal pattern. The fall in the dollar may support price growth.
The dollar is correcting, which gives the forex market a chance. After retesting the support of the downtrend, the New Zealand dollar is forming a rebound. A reversal pattern and a breakout of resistance at 0.58 will return the price to the trading range, confirming a false breakdown of support and potentially triggering growth.
The global trend is neutral, and locally we have the boundaries of a downward channel. However, a false breakout of trend support could shift the angle of imbalance towards the buyer, allowing the price to rise.
Resistance levels: 0.580
Support levels: 0.5771, 0.575
A breakout of resistance at 0.58 and a close above this level would be a strong signal of readiness for growth. However, before that, the price may test support at 0.5771 (break-even zone).
Best regards, R. Linda!
GBPUSD → Will the bulls be able to maintain the bullish trend?FX:GBPUSD slows down in the 1.334 zone amid a sharp decline. The market is testing trend support against the backdrop of a bullish run in the DXY due to confusing data from Powell...
The dollar continues its countertrend correction and is approaching resistance as part of the rally. A fall in the DXY will resume the growth of currency pairs.
The pound sterling is currently testing trend support and the trading range. The focus is on the 1.334 - 1.337 zone. If the bulls keep the price above this range, it will confirm the false breakdown and may trigger growth within the bullish trend.
Powell has confused the market with his statements and further policy. We have been observing the market's reaction over the past few days...
Support levels: 1.334, 1.3315
Resistance levels: 1.337, 1.346
I do not rule out the possibility of a retest of 1.3315, but a return of the price to the range and consolidation of the price above the 1.334-1.337 zone will confirm the false breakdown and may give buyers hope that this, in turn, could lead to a recovery.
Best regards, R. Linda!
NZDJPY → Consolidation amid a downtrend. What next?FX:NZDJPY is ending its correction and returning to the downward trend. The price is consolidating for a possible continuation of the downward movement...
The price breaks the support of the upward channel (countertrend correction). The movement occurs in a “step” format, which generally indicates weak demand. Clear consolidation boundaries are forming on the chart. The global trend is downward, and the local trend has also resumed its downward movement. Focus on two zones: 86.5 - 86.96. Within the framework of trading strategies, a false breakout of resistance or a breakout of support can be considered with the aim of continuing the decline.
Resistance levels: 86.96, 87.16
Support levels: 86.5
As part of consolidation, MM may form a liquidity trap on the resistance side, and a false breakout may trigger a further decline. However, if the bears increase pressure, the formation of a pre-breakdown base relative to the 86.5 support may trigger a breakout and a continuation of the downward movement.
Best regards, R. Linda!
NZDJPY Is Forming A Bullish SetupNew Zealand dollar turned up against the Japanese Yen since April, when we saw a strong rebound from 80.40 support, a key level going back to March 2023. The recovery is quite strong, and it looks like a leading diagonal pattern into wave A; so it's a motive wave structure that already pushed above the 87.34 resistance, which is a strong bullish signal, suggesting more upside ahead. So if we are correct, then current retracement is a contra-trend move; possibly wave B that has a nice support at 85-84 area, which is not that far away, so we may get a new bounce in a few weeks; ideally an impulse, out of a current downward channel.
Netflix Short: Breakdown from trendlineOver in this chart, I present the big picture Elliott Wave counts and also the breakdown from a trendline that triggers this short idea.
The stop loss is set at 1245 and the take profit is set at the bottom of wave 4 around $822.
Good luck!
GBP/JPY Outlook and Elliott Wave AnalysisThe GBP/JPY currency pair is currently trading near critical levels. The Bank of England (BoE) keeps its policy rate steady at 4.00%, providing limited near-term support for the Pound. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains rates at 0.50%, but signals of potential future tightening could strengthen the Japanese Yen. This divergence creates downside pressure on GBP/JPY.
From a technical standpoint, according to the Elliott Wave Theory, the GBP/JPY pair has likely completed the final wave C of an ABC corrective structure in a diagonal pattern. This pattern suggests the Japanese Yen could gain short-term strength against the Pound, with the pair potentially pulling back towards 198.00 by 1 October.
In the short term, GBP/JPY may continue to show choppy but downward-biased moves. However, the upcoming 1 October data releases and the BoJ’s policy stance will be crucial. If the Bank of Japan refrains from action, the Pound could regain momentum and drive GBP/JPY higher towards the 201.00 resistance area.
Impulse Wave 5 Near Completion: Short Setup Ahead?The 5th wave of the current impulse structure is close to completion. Price action is showing exhaustion and the drop in volume is confirming that momentum is fading. At this stage, risk for longs is increasing and the probability of a corrective phase (A-B-C) is high.
Traders should keep an eye on bearish confirmation signals such as trendline breaks, bearish engulfing bars, or supply zone failures. A short setup could develop soon if price rejects with conviction.
Patience is key — Wave 5 can stretch, but once it’s done, downside pressure usually accelerates quickly. Manage risk carefully and adjust sizing according to your strategy.
Gold cycle analysis. 30/Sept/2025 Gold parabolic rocket launching was much difficulty to catch then falling knife. Gold medium cycle Number 15 probably Only will be due by last week of Oct 2025. at around 3500 a fibo 0.618 plus multi trendline confluence zone which "matched" tradingview Mod idea as well. A daily pin bar could be formed again on today closed daily bar.
MSTR Wave II bottom?NASDAQ:MSTR is finally catching a bid from the triple support zone of the Fibonacci golden pocket, S1 pivot and High Volume Node.
It must overcome the daily 200EMA to add confidence to a reversal and wave II bottom being in.
Daily RSI has printed bullish divergence from oversold. Vanguard disclosed massive MSTR holdings ad the sentiment is awful online adding confluence to a bottom soon.
Wave III target is the R5 daily pivot $544, losing the support zone has a downside target of $232
Safe trading
COIN wave 5 Underway!NASDAQ:COIN wave 4 appears complete at the expected Fibonacci retracement 38.2 and High Volume Node support.
A local channel has formed which could be a bear pennant so bulls should watch out. A breakout of this would hit resistance at $360 High Volume Node and the first take profit area from my recent trade. Clearing this Nose will confirm wave 5 is underway to new all time highs $500+
RSI is flipping bullish from oversold and the dail 200EMA continues to rise.
Safe trading
BTDR Bounces from previous swing high support!NASDAQ:BTDR found support at the at the wave 1 high and R1 pivot and looks poised to continue to the first take profit target and all time High Volume Node tat $25! Wave (3) of 3 appears to be underway so should continue to be powerful!
Analysis is invalidated if we drop below $13 and lose the High Volume Node support which sits at the Fibonacci golden from the wave (2) bottom.
RSI did not reach overbought so has room to grow.
Safe trading
RIOT doesn't want to retrace this time!After hitting the High Volume Node and first take profit area NASDAQ:RIOT was rejected as expected but instead of a deep retracement continued to push powerfully back into the node looking poised for a breakout above!
Once the resistance is clear and tested as support RIOT should move quickly to the next High Volume Node and take profit area at $40.
Analysis is invalidated below the R2 pivot, $16, and the retracement will instead be underway!
Safe trading
CIFR deep pullback before more upside?CIFR appears to have completed 5 waves for wave (1) of 3 completing at the previous all time High Volume Node where we expect Elliot wave 1s to complete. The orange channel boundary also had a throwover and drop back, an ending pattern!
Wave (2) has an expected shallow pullback of the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement at the daily pivot and High Volume Node support $7 where I will look out for long signals. The ascending 200EMA will also meet this point making it a quadruple support and an excellent opportunity area if price gets there!
If we continue into price discovery the analysis will be invalidated and I'll take a breakout long.
Daily RSI hit overbought but has since fell with no divergence.
Safe trading
