Get started

Elliott Wave

Bulls will be disappointed - Weekly Update August 5-11thSolana appears to be in the final leg of a complex corrective structure. According to the current Elliott Wave count, the larger cycle degree is unfolding in a downward wave c, while the primary degree is in an upward wave B, subdividing into intermediate wave C, which itself is in minor wave C—now developing. The corrective decline from the July high has retraced toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (~$157) of the prior move, marking a typical zone for the end of Wave B within a flat or zig-zag formation. From this low, Solana has begun to push higher, indicating the likely beginning of Wave C to the upside. Based on Fibonacci extensions, the potential target zone for this move lies between $236 (1.0 extension) and $254 (1.236 extension). From a market structure perspective, funding rates across major perpetual futures markets for SOL remain slightly negative or neutral, indicating that the majority of traders are not aggressively long at this stage. This often provides a more stable environment for an upward move, as it suggests the absence of overcrowded long positions that could lead to sharp liquidations. For reference, data from Velo (as of August 5) shows funding on Binance SOLUSDT Perpetual at 6.07%, confirming this neutral-to-slightly-bearish bias in funding. Additionally, open interest has been neutral since the local low around $157. This is visible on futures data platforms such as Velo.xyz. However, the liquidity heatmap does not currently support a strong magnet effect toward the $236–$254 zone. There is no significant cluster of stop liquidity or resting orders above $230 that would attract price purely through liquidation mechanics. In contrast, notable liquidity still resides below current levels, making the setup more technically driven than structurally supported by liquidity. Given these conditions, the case for a C-wave rally remains technically intact, but traders should be cautious: the absence of upper-side liquidity and the corrective macro context imply that this move, even if successful, is likely a countertrend rally within a broader bearish cycle structure. In conclusion, as long as price holds above the $157–$166 support zone and maintains impulsive structure on lower timeframes, the outlook remains short- to mid-term bullish toward the $236–$254 area. Yet, any breakdown below $157 would invalidate this wave count and suggest that Cycle Wave c may already be resuming to the downside.
BINANCE:SOLUSDLong
by Phillipklh
7
MPCC - updateMPCC has also seen quite a rise of the share price and currently I´m convinced that this is not the end of the road and price will at least rich the upper channel line over the next years to complete the wave 3 (white count). Currently, a leading diagonal started the rally and we have seen two 1-2 setups which is a very bullish sign. I´m looking for the price to take out the high indicated by the green line before it will need to pull back again. This pullback in the future will give us the chance to stock up on this company shares.
OSL:MPCCLong
by Staggi10
Hoegh Autoliner - updateThe development has been nothing short of being great since my last update on this Norwegian stock. The price fell more than I anticipated but nevertheless it followed my overall plan. I remain extremely bullish on this company but it´s too early to give more precise price targets. As of now we can assume that we will see price reach the 161% Fibonacci extension projected of the red 1-2 setup seen in the chart. This move will have several set-backs which I´m looking to use for additional buys. Looks like the future is bright for the company ... as of now at least!
OSL:HAUTOLong
by Staggi10
Bear trap on its way - Bitcoin Weekly Update August 4-10thThis week brings a series of macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that may influence global risk sentiment and, consequently, Bitcoin’s price trajectory. On Monday, the U.S. releases Factory Orders, a key indicator of industrial demand. Surprises in this data can affect risk assets broadly, as they reflect business investment activity. Weak numbers would likely increase expectations of monetary easing, which tends to support Bitcoin. On Tuesday, the spotlight turns to the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, a leading indicator for the U.S. services sector, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP. A significant deviation from expectations—especially a decline—could reinforce rate-cut expectations and provide tailwinds for speculative assets like Bitcoin. Thursday is a critical day, with the Bank of England's interest rate decision in focus. While direct effects on crypto are limited, a hawkish stance could weigh on global risk appetite if inflation concerns resurface. Also on Thursday, the U.S. releases its weekly Initial Jobless Claims—a timely barometer of labor market strength. A rising trend here would suggest economic cooling, strengthening the case for looser policy and potentially benefiting crypto. However, the most geopolitically sensitive event this week is the reintroduction of country-specific reciprocal tariffs by the United States, taking effect on August 7. Affected countries include Canada (35%), Mexico (30%), and Brazil (50%). These measures could re-escalate trade tensions and trigger short-term market volatility. Retaliatory responses from these countries would likely fuel risk-off sentiment, pressuring assets across the board. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin remains within a multi-degree corrective structure according to the Elliott Wave framework. On the cycle degree, we are in a B-wave; on the primary degree, in an A-wave; on the intermediate degree, in a B-wave; and on the minor degree, in a C-wave. This implies that a short-term move lower is still expected, but once complete, a relief rally of approximately 4% could follow before the onset of a larger correction, likely Primary Wave B. Chart structure suggests that Minor Wave C is in its late stages. Early signs of exhaustion, such as waning downside momentum or bullish reaction at key support zones, could offer clues of an approaching bottom. However, such a rebound should be viewed as temporary and not a trend reversal. Taking a view between the lines on the on-chain data, the liquidity heatmap shows major liquidity around the red rectangle drawn into the chart, suggesting higher prices. Also, the rather low funding rate on futures suggest an exhausted downward trend and a trend reversal in the near future is likely. Conclusion: This week’s calendar offers several macroeconomic catalysts with the potential to move markets. U.S. economic data and tariff policy developments will likely shape near-term sentiment. Technically, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase with limited downside left before a short-term recovery becomes more probable. Traders should stay alert for signs of a local bottom to position for a tactical bounce—but be cautious, as a larger correction likely looms beyond that. This is no financial advice and for educational purposes only.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Phillipklh
GOLD → Consolidation and correction before growthFX:XAUUSD continues to consolidate after a strong rally. The market is returning to a bullish trend, but a correction is possible before growth continues... Gold is rising amid expectations of Fed policy easing. The market is finding support amid: a 90.5% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, weak US employment data, and dovish comments from Fed officials. The market is waiting for news that could determine further movement. ISM Services PMI data: strong figures could temporarily support the dollar, while weak figures could increase pressure on the USD. Questions about the Fed's independence after Trump fired the head of the BLS. Gold is maintaining its upward momentum, but its dynamics will depend on macro statistics and the Fed's response. Technically, the focus is on the local trading range of 3385 - 3363 - 3353. Resistance levels: 3385.4, 3433 Support levels: 3362, 3353, 3345 A retest of support and holding the price above key support could trigger a continuation of the uptrend, but it is important to pay attention to the fundamental background. Best regards, R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
20
XRPUSDT → Hunting for liquidity ahead of a possible declineBINANCE:XRPUSDT.P is forming a downward market structure after a false breakout of global resistance. Bitcoin is in a correction phase and, after a slight rebound, may continue its movement... Bitcoin has entered the sell zone. The price is consolidating below the global consolidation boundary of 115,500 during the retest, and if Bitcoin continues to decline, this could trigger a downward movement across the entire cryptocurrency market. XRP is forming a bearish market structure. After capturing liquidity and a false breakout of resistance, the price is returning to a bearish trading range. There is no potential for continued growth at this time. A consolidation of the price below 3.00 - 2.996 could trigger further sell-offs. Resistance levels: 2.996, 3.050, 3.181 Support levels: 2.996, 2.891, 2.74 The local bearish structure will be broken if the price starts to rise, breaks 3.050, and consolidates above it. In this case, XRP may test 3.181 before falling further. At the moment, after a false breakout of resistance, the price is consolidating in the selling zone, and the downward movement may continue. I consider 2.74 - 2.655 to be the zone of interest in the medium term. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
19
EW - Watching (b) Pullback for Next Bull WaveGame plan: Watching for the (b) wave pullback. Key support is around 3,362–3,340. If price corrects into this zone and shows bullish signs (wick rejection, strong bounce), I’ll look for a long setup. Target: Initial target back to the 3,389–3,393 resistance area. If momentum is strong, will let some ride towards 3,421 +. Stop loss: Just below the support zone (e.g. under 3,340 or the most recent swing low). If price drops much further, I’ll be eyeing 3,298 as the next potential buy zone. Key rule: If price breaks below 3,281 (Wave ii), I’m out. Not holding any longs if this support fails.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by yuzinc
BTC - 1H Elliott Wave Analysis - 05.08.25Greetings, this is an update of our Elliott Wave Count for Bitcoin. Today we are going to look at the bullish and bearish scenarios so everybody is well prepared for the upcoming price action. We have seen a pullback since yesterday's update. The pullback entered and is currently in our Wave 2 support area which is between the 0.5 FIB at 113'640 USD and the 0.786 FIB at 112'616 USD. The bulls would like to see a bounce now in green Wave 3 of which the targets are the 1 to 1 FIB at 116'418 USD, the 1.382 FIB at 117'883 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 118'789 USD which is also the optimal target for a Wave 3. Due not invalidating the red Wave 4 we could form the red Wave 5. Be aware that on the lower timeframes we did touch the 0.886 FIB of a smaller Wave 2 support area which does indicate weakness and usually is followed by another low. If we touch the 0.886 FIB of the Wave 2 support area at 112'287 USD it is also an invalidation of the green bullish count. Red Wave 5 targets are the 1 to 1 FIB at 111'573 USD which is additionally right below the last low and the last all time high which could function as further support. Further targets would be the 1.382 FIB at 109'997 USD and the 1.618 FIB at 109'024 USD as well as another 1.618 FIB at 109'479 USD. Be aware that the bigger Wave 2 support area goes down to 103'000 USD. We think another low is more probable meaning the red count has the higher probability. Yet we think the green count is a good opportunity as we have a clear set up and invalidation point. Thanks for reading. We would appreciate a follow and boost if you like the analysis! :) NO FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Long
by KanashimiBro
Crude Oil Resumes Its WeaknessCrude oil rised and then fell sharply from above 78 dollars back in June, after tensions in the Middle East. The drop unfolded as an impulse into wave A, so even if this is just a counter-trend move down from 78, it still appears incomplete. After we recently spotted a corrective rally in wave B that nicely stopped at projected $70 resistance near 61,8% Fibo. retracement, we can now see it resuming lower within projected wave C towards 60-59 area at least, if not even lower.
NYMEX:CLU2025Short
by ew-forecast
XAU/USD – Bearish Momentum Building: Circle 2 Top In?OANDA:XAUUSD We have now completed a 1-2-3-4-5 structure to the downside (in white). Following that, we got a counter-correction in the form of an A-B-C, which potentially marks the completion of our yellow (Circle) Wave 2 🟡. However, it’s not confirmed just yet — we still have two additional Fibonacci levels at 3400 and 3418, which could act as resistance zones and final topping areas for Circle 2. We are now anticipating a 1-2-3-4-5 impulse into Circle 3, as already illustrated in yellow 🟡. So at the moment, bias remains bearish 🔻. Should we break above the Fibonacci levels mentioned, I do have an alternative scenario in mind — an ABCDE triangle formation that may have developed over the past months. If that becomes relevant, I’ll make a separate upload for it 📌. For now, I'm actively looking for sell positions, and I’ve already entered shorts ✅.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ElliotXSolana
USDCAD Daily AnalysisUSDCAD has recently completed a clean 5-wave Elliott Wave decline, reaching a significant low at 1.3540 on June 16, 2025. This low marks the end of the bearish cycle, followed by an accumulation phase. During this phase, price formed a triple bottom pattern, confirming strong demand around the 1.3540–1.3560 zone. The breakout above the neckline confirms this reversal pattern, and price is now retesting the previous resistance zone (1.3750–1.3770), which has turned into support. The pair is also trading above the 21-period EMA, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Elliott Wave & Structure Outlook Elliott Wave count shows a completed 1–5 bearish wave, followed by a corrective bullish structure in progress. Wave A of the corrective move has likely completed, and Wave B retracement is underway. A continuation toward Wave C is expected, targeting the 1.4180–1.4300 resistance area, aligning with prior major supply zones. Trade Plan Buy Entry Zone: 1.3750 – 1.3700 Stop Loss: 1.3560 (below structure support and trendline) Take Profit Targets: 🎯 TP1: 1.4000 🎯 TP2: 1.4180 🎯 TP3: 1.4300 USDCAD has shifted from a prolonged bearish trend into a bullish corrective phase. A successful retest of the breakout zone offers a high-probability long trade setup. Breakout and continuation toward 1.4180–1.4300 aligns with wave theory and technical resistance zones.
Long
by SaklainManzoor
Nasdaq and S&P500 Short: A multi-factor analysisIn this long video, I go through why I think the equity markets are going to crash in August. Here are the important points: 1. I talk about the stealth liquidity which is the reverse repo balance being drawn down and almost emptied. 2. The risk-off asset classes rising: Gold, Japanese Yen. 3. The risk-on asset classes falling: Nasdaq, Bitcoin, Ethereum. Here's my outlook for the markets from now till September FOMC: 1. The equity markets, USDJPY, Bitcoin, and Ethereum will crash. 2. 3-month treasury yield will fall below 4.25% and even below 4%. 3. Fed will cut target rates to be within the 3-month treasury yield. As usual, good luck in your trading and keep your risks tight!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by yuchaosng
1
FCPO should reverse as it reached 2.618 ### **1. Overall Market Context** * Current price: **4,285 MYR** * Recent high: **4,286 MYR** * Market shows a **sharp rebound** after a 5-wave downward Elliott sequence. * Current trend: **Short-term bullish reversal** after completing a possible Elliott Wave 5 down. --- ### **2. Elliott Wave Count** * You have marked **i – ii – iii – iv – v** indicating a completed **5-wave downtrend**. * After the final **wave v bottom around 4,169 MYR**, price has reversed sharply. * This is consistent with the **Elliott Wave principle** where after a 5-wave impulse in one direction, a **corrective phase or reversal** usually follows. --- ### **3. Fibonacci Analysis** * Fibonacci retracement and extension levels are plotted: * **0% at 4,169 MYR** (bottom of wave v) * **Fib retracement cluster:** * 0.382 ≈ 4,180 * 0.5 ≈ 4,192 * 0.618 ≈ 4,197 * 0.786 ≈ 4,204 * Price **broke above 1.0 extension (4,214 MYR)** and accelerated. * **Current rally approaching Fib 2.618 extension ≈ 4,287 MYR** * Market is **testing a key resistance zone**. --- ### **4. Support & Resistance** * **Immediate resistance**: 4,285 – 4,287 MYR (Fib 2.618 extension + prior swing high) * **Next resistance**: 4,332 MYR (Fib 3.618 extension) * **Immediate support**: 4,221 MYR (previous breakout + 1.0 fib extension) * **Key support**: 4,200 MYR (0.786 retracement level) --- ### **5. Volume & Momentum** * **Volume spike** visible on the rally from 4,170 to 4,285 MYR. * Indicates **strong short-covering or new buying interest**. * Momentum is **overextended**, suggesting potential short-term pullback if resistance holds. --- ### **6. Trading Plan (Short-Term)** * **Bullish bias** above 4,221 MYR. * **Potential pullback** to 4,242–4,221 MYR zone if current rally faces profit-taking. * **Upside target** if breakout sustains: 4,332 MYR (Fib 3.618 extension). * **Invalidation level**: Below 4,200 MYR, momentum likely fades and market may retest 4,169 MYR. --- ### **Summary** * Market has **completed a 5-wave downtrend** and is in a **strong corrective rally**. * Price is testing **key resistance at 4,285–4,287 MYR**. * **Watch for either breakout continuation to 4,332 MYR or short-term retracement** toward 4,221–4,242 MYR.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by pengamalgelombang
2009-2025 Elliott Wave: BitcoinBitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator, that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. Transactions are verified by network nodes through cryptography and recorded in a public distributed ledger called a blockchain. The cryptocurrency was invented in 2008 by an unknown person or group of people using the name Satoshi Nakamoto. The currency began use in 2009 when its implementation was released as open-source software.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stevepuri
GOLD → Consolidation after the rally...FX:XAUUSD is not falling back after a strong rally, but is consolidating against resistance at 3362.8. Continued high demand could allow the market to strengthen... The price of gold halted its two-day rally, trading around $3362.8 on Monday morning after weak US employment data. This heightened concerns about the US economy and increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September to 80%. Additional pressure on the dollar came from the dismissal of BLS chief Erika McAntfer, which raised suspicions of statistics manipulation. Market attention is also focused on US-Canada trade talks, which could affect investor sentiment. Gold is consolidating for now, but its further growth will depend on the dynamics of the dollar and macroeconomic data. Resistance levels: 3362.8, 3383, 3433 Support levels: 3345, 3334 As the market has now entered a consolidation phase, MM may form a retest of support before a possible rise in order to accumulate liquidity. However, a breakout of resistance at 3362.8 could trigger further growth. Best regards, Linda!
FX:XAUUSDLong
by RLinda
14
BITCOIN → From consolidation to distribution. Market weaknessBINANCE:BTCUSDT.P is moving from consolidation to a correction phase. The price broke through the support zone of 114.5–115.5, closing within the Friday trading session in the sell zone... Previous idea from July 22: BITCOIN → Consolidation and compression to 116K. Correction? The fundamental background is shifting to neutral, the hype has temporarily ended, and there are no bullish drivers yet. And for the health of the market, a correction is needed. Bitcoin is breaking the neutral consolidation structure. The previous trading session closed below the support range, which generally indicates market weakness. Despite the global bullish trend, Bitcoin is moving from consolidation to a correction phase, with 112K - 110.5K serving as points of interest in this case. Before the fall, liquidity may be captured in the 114K - 114.800 zone. Resistance levels: 114.05, 114.85, 115.67 Support levels: 112.03, 110.48 After a strong movement, the market may enter a correction or local consolidation, during which it may test the specified resistance zones before continuing its downward movement to the zone of interest and liquidity at 112 - 110.5. Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
20
MTF 2nd bearish macro outlook on Eth, final wave of (Y) coming?This is an idea I've had for a while (unpublished) but looking at local structure, I have to revive this.. It's a very rare expanding triangle idea as the Y wave of the macro WXY wave. The December 2024 high took out the March 2024 high. And, it's not uncommon, especially in crypto, for B/W wave to take out the previous high (i.e. overshoot). But, considering that the pink a-b-c-d-e's April 2024 low (c) hit the exact 1.618 extension, and the high likelihood of (d) about to hit 4k+ and overshoot the December high of 2024, there is a likelihood that you're seeing an expanding triangle play out. If you see a rejection at previous December 2024 high (i.e. a swing failure pattern), you must entertain the idea of expanding triangle at the very least. The unfortunate part is, if this is true, the (e) wave has a huge range, from ~$1400 to $700. The minimum requirement of (e) is to take out the (c) low but can extend to 1.618 at $700. Will have to see the local structure playout once we get close to (c) or below. More evidence for expanding triangle is the volume and the open-interest. From March 2024, volume has been steadily increasing (not visible on Bitstamp chart here, but go look at Binance Ethereum chart, for example) and open-interest has been increasing since March 2024, all the while price has kept peaking at ~$4k. For bulls, this should be very concerning as it means the kettle's been boiling hotter and hotter and the pressure's been building up - and long-to-short ratio is still very much positive. A swing failure pattern at (d) and with late longs entering in the market at the peak, it's possible a cascade of liquidation could result in a quick move down to (e).
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by urbangoose
9