Be careful - ETH weekly analysis Sep 1 - 7ththereum currently presents two possible interpretations. Either we remain in a corrective structure within Intermediate Wave 4, or we are already forming a 1–2 setup at the Minute degree, which would imply the start of an impulsive rally. My primary scenario, however, favors the correction. The reason is simple: despite the current bullish news flow, the internal structure does not provide enough confirmation for me to adopt the 1–2 setup as the main count.
The order book shows notable order clusters around $4.2k and additional orders at $4k, while the liquidation heatmap highlights significant liquidity at the $4k level. Of course, shorter-term liquidity and orders exist above current price, but the fact that the recent pump occurred as a typical “Sunday pump” makes me cautious about taking longs in this environment.
Derivative data supports the cautious stance. Open interest has stabilized, while funding rates have slipped back into negative territory. This suggests bearish sentiment is still dominant. When combined with the liquidity sitting above current price, the bearish argument is further reinforced.
Additionally, it is worth noting that Fetch.ai has recently broken its bullish structure, and from experience, other altcoins often follow such bearish turnarounds. For now, I am short positioned. Key levels to watch include the 0.618 retracement of the supposed Minute Wave 2, which could act as a potential reversal zone. However, once the low of Minute Wave 1 is broken, I expect the path toward $4,000 to open up.
