XAUUSD Price Action Update – Waves in PlayXAUUSD Price Action Update – Waves in Play
Hello traders,
As I shared yesterday in the long-term outlook for gold, the first scenario is playing out almost perfectly. Price reaction levels have been spot on, making trading much easier – and that’s exactly why detailed planning is so important when building a scenario.
Key reaction zones have already delivered profits: the buy at 3375 and the sell at 3409 both worked well. More importantly, my long-side projection is still valid, with targets at least around 3430 and potentially as high as 3450.
Following that scenario, the plan remains to look for buy entries on pullbacks, since no market goes straight up or straight down. Every move needs secondary phases of liquidity grabs and corrections.
With the current structure, buying here feels a bit “mid-range”, but with larger profit potential the risk can be justified. A buy entry around 3405 looks reasonable, while corrective short setups can be considered near 3430.
Holding onto long positions at current levels remains very logical – and remember, cultivating the right trading mindset is just as important as finding good entries.
Drop your thoughts in the comments, let’s discuss this setup together.
Elliotwaveanalysis
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3400 (Wave 3).I am updating my idea because I have a certain vision of the situation, like the diagonal “ABCDE”, in which the movement has already ended. It is quite remarkable that this scenario, like the previous one, envisages a continuation of the upward movement.
Therefore, I am considering a small correction to the 3300 area (wave “2”), followed by a continuation of the upward movement to the 3400 resistance area.
If the price reaches the target immediately, this does not contradict the idea. Therefore, I recommend considering only long positions or limit orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
XAUUSD – Medium-Term Trading OutlookXAUUSD – Medium-Term Trading Outlook
Hello traders,
Gold is now entering the final stage of its flag formation. Medium-term traders are watching closely for a clear breakout confirmation, as this will define the next medium- to long-term move. Once price confirms the break, the plan is to enter immediately in the direction of that breakout.
In the meantime, short-term and intraday traders can continue trading within the flag, taking advantage of scalping opportunities inside the range.
From my perspective, the probability of an upside breakout and continuation of the broader bullish trend is fairly high after such a long consolidation. To optimise entries, it makes sense to buy near the lower boundary of the trendline, with stop-losses placed immediately if the pattern breaks down. The key level to watch is the Fibonacci retracement 0.5 at 3354 – an area that acts as both dynamic and static support, as well as a critical Fibonacci level. This is a strong zone for long-term buy setups.
Additionally, an earlier entry can be considered around 3372, where the previous candle showed strong buying momentum. Traders entering here should keep stops tight, just below the nearest support.
This bullish outlook would only be invalidated if price breaks below the lower trendline and closes firmly underneath it, confirming a reversal.
Wishing you success with this trading plan. If you share a similar outlook, feel free to drop your thoughts in the comments and let’s discuss further.
Nvida Earnings Next, Can Cryptos Stabilize? Cryptocurrencies stabilized a bit in the last 24 hours while stocks also rebounded yesterday during the US session, but the dollar is still moving sideways. Maybe there will be a bit of slow day ahead, till NVIDA earnings are released. Data will be announced today, after the US close, when we’ll get Nvidia earnings, which should also be important for the crypto space. And if results beat expectations—or in other words if the market moves higher after hours—then cryptos could also do well. Looking at Nvidia’s wave count, price could be eyeing new highs after a bounce from 170 support, so maybe a minor fourth wave has finished and we could even see a gap higher after earnings, with potential resistance around the 200 round figure.
If earnings disappoint and price gaps lower, I would still see this as a higher-degree corrective wave four retracement, and maybe some opportunities later on to fill the gap. Key support to watch is around 150, the previous high. So even if there’s some downside, as long as any drop it’s not too deep, I still view this stock as bullish within an unfinished impulse, and whenever Nvidia is ready to print new highs, that’s when cryptos could also stabilize.
Grega
Bitcoin – Long-Term Outlook with Elliott Wave StructureBitcoin – Long-Term Outlook with Elliott Wave Structure
Hello traders,
Taking a step back for a medium- to long-term perspective on BTC. The broader trend remains bullish, yet for any rally to be sustainable, corrective phases are essential. Right now, BTC is in a corrective move, which aligns with wave 4 of the Elliott Wave structure.
To measure the depth of this correction before wave 5 develops, we can look at the Fibonacci retracement levels. Two zones stand out as significant: 0.618 and 0.5.
At 0.618, support is strong but not yet decisive. If price reacts here and wave 5 unfolds, the Elliott count stays intact and relatively clean.
At 0.5, this is often the ideal retracement level on Fibonacci. The chart also shows this as a major structural support. If it breaks, deeper downside could follow, as the ascending trendline also suggests.
Long-Term Trading Plan
Entry 1: Around the 0.618 retracement at 105k
Entry 2: Around the 0.5 retracement at 99k
This setup forms the basis for a medium-term strategy, but if the second zone (99k) holds strongly, it could well serve as the foundation for a longer-term bullish cycle.
Stay patient, keep risk management at the forefront, and let the structure play out.
What’s your take on BTC’s long-term wave structure? Drop your thoughts in the comments and let’s discuss.
Bitcoin Holds Steady After Two SessionsBitcoin Holds Steady After Two Sessions
Hello traders,
BTC has managed to hold its ground within the descending channel after the past two sessions. The bearish trend remains intact following the break below the 115.5k support. For now, the plan is to continue trading in line with the channel structure, focusing on scalping opportunities at the boundaries until wave 3 is expected to complete near 105k.
If price breaks out of the channel earlier, backed by strong volume, then trade with the breakout:
Short-term: follow the downside move if price breaks lower.
Long-term: take buying opportunities if price breaks higher and confirms the reversal.
Since wave 3 could finish earlier than expected, it’s important to stay flexible and monitor price closely.
What’s your outlook on BTC at this stage? Share your thoughts in the comments so we can learn together.
Gold – US Session UpdateGold – US Session Update
Hello traders,
Gold is moving in line with the scenario, currently tracking wave 2 in Elliott, even though overall market volume remains light. What matters now is a clean break above 3386 resistance – that would provide enough momentum for gold to extend higher, with the next target around 3411, before continuing into wave 3.
At present, the setup is already running with around 200 pips profit. Traders can continue to hold positions, but taking partial profit (closing half) may help ease the psychology and allow more comfort in holding for extended targets.
For those who missed the earlier entry, the 3380 zone still offers a possible entry point. Although it’s slightly late, the target remains far enough to justify action.
Stick with this scenario if it aligns with your outlook – and always remember to manage risk carefully.
Wishing you success with your gold trades.
New Highs Ahead ? - BTCUSD Elliott Wave AnalysisHello Friends, Welcome to RK_Chaarts,
Today we are having Elliott wave theory counts on BTCUSD Bitcoin Chart Analysis
The weekly timeframe of the BTCUSD bitcoin chart reveals that we are unfolding Super Cycle Degree Wave (III) in Blue. This wave's sub-divisions, which should total five for a Cycle Degree, are visible. We've completed Waves I & II and begun unfolding Wave III in red.
Within Wave III, we are unfolding the 1st wave ((1)) of one lower degree as Primary (Black). This wave will unfold in five sub-divisions of one more lower degree as Intermediate degree in (Blue).
Daily Outlook:
On the daily outlook, we are currently unfolding wave (4) of Intermediate degree (Blue), a subdivision of wave ((1)) of Primary degree (Black). As wave (4) nears completion, a reversal is expected soon, driving prices toward new highs to complete wave (5) of ((1)).
Additional Support Confirmation:
Further reinforcing the analysis, the Anchored VWAP's Average is also showing support near 104,000. This confluence of support levels increases the likelihood of a reversal, making it an important level to watch for traders.
Key Takeaways:
- We're unfolding Cycle Degree Wave III on the weekly timeframe.
- Wave (4) of Intermediate degree is nearing completion on the daily outlook.
- A reversal is expected soon, driving prices toward new highs.
- Anchored VWAP also showing Support nearby current price.
Important Wave Theory Considerations:
As per wave theory, wave (4) shouldn't overlap wave (1), except in the case of diagonals and triangles. In this scenario, we are unfolding a diagonal, allowing wave (4) to enter into wave (1). However, it's crucial to note that wave (4) should not go beyond the low of wave (2) under any circumstances. If it does, our wave counts would be invalidated.
A Word of Caution:
Elliott Wave Theory and possible wave counts suggest that the price will make new highs on the chart soon. However, the market is inherently unpredictable and always ready to surprise. Therefore, it's essential to consider "what-if" scenarios in your trading journey.
Are we ready for new highs ?
As we navigate the complexities of the market, it's vital to remain adaptable and prepared for any eventuality. By acknowledging the potential for surprises and maintaining a flexible mindset, traders can better navigate the markets and make informed decisions.
Conclusion:
The BTCUSD bitcoin chart is poised for a reversal, driven by the completion of wave (4) and the subsequent unfolding of wave (5). While the analysis suggests new highs are on the horizon, it's essential to remain cautious and consider the unpredictability of the market. Are you prepared for the possibilities that lie ahead ?
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
xauusd and Key level#xauusd
#gold
#m15
Key level for xauusd
1. “Gold shows bearish setup with Ichimoku, Elliott Wave, and dynamic resistance levels. Market sentiment supports further downside.”
2. “XAUUSD is facing resistance and signals potential decline. Watch key support levels for price reaction.”
3. “Bearish momentum confirmed by Ichimoku and dynamic levels. Expect further downside if support breaks.”
Gold Scenario – Following the Medium-Term UptrendGold Scenario – Following the Medium-Term Uptrend
Hello traders,
Gold continues to move in line with expectations. Price reacted at the Fibonacci 1.618 resistance, effectively completing a liquidity test. The 3368 zone now offers a reasonable area to consider long positions.
With the previous ABC Elliott cycle complete, gold appears to be forming a new wave structure. Price is likely in wave 3 of the uptrend, pulling back slightly at the H4 descending trendline, before finishing with wave 5 breakout, which would also confirm the flag pattern forming on H4.
Trading plan: Look to buy around 3368, with a strict stop placed below the previous swing low.
Profit target: 3410 is a reasonable first take-profit. After that, expect a wave 4 correction, where short setups can be considered.
The MACD remains supportive, holding above its average and confirming bullish momentum. At this stage, it’s all about finding the right entry and trading with discipline.
This is my personal outlook for gold in the short to medium term. Use it as reference, and feel free to share your perspective in the comments so we can discuss further.
Bitcoin – Bulls Hold the Edge After 110k BounceBitcoin – Trading Plan Update
Hello traders,
BTC has followed the scenario well, reacting strongly at 110.4k and bouncing higher. This level effectively cleared short-side liquidity, while the H4 candle failed to close below the 111.8k support. As such, long entries around 110k remain valid, with upside targets towards 115.5k.
The bias stays on the long side as long as price does not confirm a decisive bearish break. Long positions remain in play until price moves firmly below 110k.
For those who closed longs or missed the earlier move, watch for a retest of the FVG zone near 111.5k. If price reacts higher, fresh longs can be taken around 113k.
Short opportunities may also arise at resistance levels near 115.5k and 117.2k.
My BTC strategy continues to align with current market action. However, this is my personal view based on my trading approach. Always remain disciplined, manage risk, and follow your own plan.
What’s your outlook on BTC at this stage? Share your perspective in the comments below.
Gold – Weekly Opening UpdateGold – Weekly Opening Update
Hello traders,
Gold is holding steady after last week’s strong rally. As outlined in my earlier analysis, the metal has completed an ABC Elliott Wave structure, with wave C driving higher and achieving the projected target.
As the new week begins, the market has opened quietly, with price consolidating around 3368. This suggests accumulation, with traders waiting for a clear signal before taking action.
Gold has formed a minor resistance at 3359. If price breaks below this level, it could act as a short-term sell confirmation, with entries possible near 3366.
Alternatively, if price holds or breaks last week’s resistance high, the outlook shifts towards longer-term buying opportunities.
Even if a short plays out after 3359, the next significant buy zone sits near 3345, aligned with the ascending trendline.
Price remains within the flag pattern, meaning trading is still revolving around major liquidity zones. On the D1 chart, the broader structure continues to favour the upside bias. Any short trades should be treated as scalping opportunities only, to maintain the highest accuracy.
This is my personal outlook for Monday’s session. Stay disciplined, trade with structure, and manage risk effectively.
What’s your perspective on gold at the start of this week? Share your thoughts in the comments so we can learn together.
Gold - Elliot's Wave AnalysisBasic view of Elliot's wave analysis for Gold view. Currently we can see sell side Liquidity in sight and that WILL be my next range target.
We have been consolidating for a while now suggesting a firm breakout soon. After an abc pattern there is suggested to be an impulse wave to commence. Once sweeping sell side liquidity I will be either waiting for a break and retest of the Liquidity trend before impulsing into a new high range OR getting a firm Bearish breakout towards the downside.
Either at this point are quite likely. I usually only buy into gold but we are at a critical point for gold and the US dollar so keep your eyes locked!
ETHUSD-Just Another Correction Within Uptrend?On Ethereum, we’re seeing a retracement from the 4800 area, but we think this still can be a corrective move within the ongoing uptrend. The updated wave structure suggests this could be wave four of an incomplete bullish impulse that started from the June lows, so be aware of another push higher—ideally toward the 5000 area once the retracement completes. We see price now at strong support at 4160 - 4000 region, near the black trendline and former swing highs from December 2024, where stabilization may occur. So it appears that Ethereum has more upside ahead, especially with the October 2021 highs still intact; and before calling the end of this bull run with a larger fifth wave, we’d first need to see a breakout beyond that level, after which sharp extensions toward higher targets would be possible.
Bitcoin – Medium-Term Outlook for Long/Short TradersBitcoin – Medium-Term Outlook for Long/Short Traders
Hello traders,
BTC continues to respect the descending channel structure. Recently, price bounced strongly from the solid support around 112k, and it is now only about 2k away from the swing long target zone.
If BTC can break above the 114.8k resistance, a short-term reversal could unfold, with potential to extend towards 117.5k before resuming the broader downtrend. This scenario may also act as a trap for those holding longer-term short positions.
The structure is showing early signs of change: price is trading above the descending channel trendline, while MACD indicates rising volume and its moving averages are curving upward. These signals point to a possible corrective rally in the near term.
Strategy: Consider long entries near current levels, with the option to scale in if price breaks 114.8k.
Medium-term short positions from around 115k remain valid, targeting the 110k zone, which could also serve as a new accumulation area.
This is my personal view of the BTC market. Stay disciplined and manage risk accordingly.
What’s your outlook on Bitcoin here? Share your perspective in the comments below.
GBPUSD: Elliott Wave and H&S Pattern Is Pointing Higher Cable made a strong rebound from the 1.3135 support, suggesting the market could be bottoming, possibly completing an ABC, zigzag pattern. So, with the current break above the channel resistance line in an impulsive fashion into wave A/1, we should watch for more upside, at least in three waves, up to 1.37 area or higher.
At the moment we can see some retracement from 1.36 resistance, ideally its wave B/2 that can retrace the price back to 1.34 support area before a continuation higher within wave C or 3.
H&S pattern is also something we have to consider here; the bullish path.
GH
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18098.We are observing the development of a five-wave impulse in the medium-term wave “2”.
The small wave “1” appears to be completing its movement, and I expect a correction in wave ‘2’ to the area of 1.15681, followed by a continuation of the upward movement in wave “3”. The minimum target for the movement is the resistance area of 1.18098.
I do not rule out the fact that wave “1” is not yet complete, so there is a possibility of the upward movement continuing without correction.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 60 (Wave "3").Wave “C” continues to develop in a five-wave movement. Right now, I think wave “1” has just ended and we will see a small correction to the 66,280 area (wave ‘2’), after which I expect wave “3” to develop, which should go further than the 60 support level, but this is a fairly strong psychological level at which it would be good to take profits.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Are Longterm Interest Rates Telling Us Something?I rarely cite financial news in my market updates.
My reasoning is simple: all perspectives, bullish or bearish, are ultimately reflected in price action. That price action forms patterns, and those patterns can be analyzed to produce reasonable forecasts. After years of applying Elliott Wave theory, this approach has consistently stood the test of time.
That said, I’ll break from tradition today, as I believe the following excerpt is particularly relevant to my latest Trading View update. It comes from Barbara Kollmeyer’s article, “There’s a slow-motion crisis in bonds — and this bearish strategist thinks it will hit stocks.”
For context, I regularly track multiple market indices, futures contracts, single stocks, and notably, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond. For the past year, I’ve highlighted the counterintuitive rise in long-term yields that ironically began when the Fed started cutting its benchmark rate in September 2024. While brief divergences between long-term yields and Fed policy aren’t unusual, this persistent uptrend is different. The yield has been carving out a clear pattern of higher highs and higher lows, appearing now on the verge of a breakout—not just toward incremental new highs, but potentially into a runaway scenario for long-term rates.
This is why Albert Edwards’ recent comments caught my attention:
“There is a slow-motion crisis unfolding in the government bond markets that equity investors continue to ignore at their peril. The upward grind for long bond yields has been relentless, yet investors keep ignoring that to focus instead on more bullish metrics such as the latest reporting season driven by the mega-cap IT stocks, that promises a pot of gold at the end of the AI rainbow.”
His perspective resonated with me.
Having lived through the dot-com boom and bust, I recall how new technologies can fuel outsized market optimism. AI undoubtedly carries transformational potential, much like the Internet. But just as it took nearly two decades for the Internet to fully translate from speculative boom to tangible economic value, AI’s payoff will likely follow a similarly extended trajectory. It’s not an immediate catalyst.
What I am certain of is this: the cost of long-term money is rising, with implications far beyond bond charts. Higher yields directly affect mortgage rates and other long-term financing costs. More importantly, sustained upward pressure in long-term rates has the potential to weigh heavily on equities, broader markets, and asset valuations for far longer than many currently expect.
Gold – Elliott Wave “C” Begins (US Session Update)Gold – Elliott Wave “C” Begins (US Session Update)
Gold has reacted perfectly in line with Wave B, clearing the liquidity from yesterday’s H4 bullish candle and then surging strongly. The condition to look further towards Wave C – the final leg in the Elliott structure – is a decisive break above 3352. If confirmed, the long-term bullish outlook strengthens, with the next targets around 337x and potentially 3394.
News of a trade agreement between the EU and the US added strong momentum, helping to complete the corrective Wave B with impressive buying pressure.
For today’s US session, if you are still holding previous buy positions, it is worth keeping them. If not, the 3336–3340 zone provides a reasonable area to consider new long entries, with expectations that Wave C could extend towards 337x.
Always remember to place a tight stop-loss below the 3330 support area to manage risk effectively.
Wishing you success with this scenario – feel free to share your views in the comments below.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ElliottWave #Fibonacci #Forex #Trading
Gold Outlook After FOMC – Building a Bullish StructureGold Outlook After FOMC – Building a Bullish Structure
The latest FOMC meeting offered no new measures to support the economy, as Chair Powell suggested conditions remain stable and interest rates were left unchanged. Markets therefore stayed muted, with expectations now shifting towards September for potential policy moves.
On the technical side, gold has completed wave A after reacting to the daily trendline, and I expect the market is now forming an ABC corrective structure to complete a medium-term Elliott cycle. The recent rally also broke through the descending trendline on H4, confirming that bullish momentum may prove more sustainable.
At present, price is undergoing a mild pullback from the Asian session, with the potential to retrace 40–50% of the recent H4 candle. This move would also retest the broken descending trendline — if confirmed, it would establish a stronger bullish Dow structure and open the path for a longer wave cycle, at least until wave C plays out fully.
The H4 chart supports this scenario, as MACD averages are trending upward and volume is showing steady growth.
Buy zone: Around 3334, in line with the broader trend for medium- to long-term positions.
Sell zone: Around 3365, where wave C could complete and a new cycle may begin.
Gold is gradually showing a clearer technical structure. Patience and discipline with entries should help traders capture this move effectively.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ElliottWave #Fibonacci #MACD #Forex #FOMC #Trading
EUR/USD – Elliott Wave + FVG Orderblock | Key Short Setup Ahead🔎 Analysis Breakdown:
1. Wave Structure: Market is completing the corrective ABCDE pattern, with wave D testing the upper supply area.
2. Supply Zone: The highlighted zone shows active sellers, increasing probability of rejection.
3. Liquidity & FVG Orderblock: Below, we have a fair value gap (FVG) and orderblock acting as a magnet for price.
4. Scenario: If price rejects the D leg zone, bearish momentum could accelerate towards the FVG orderblock area (1.1580 – 1.1560).
⚠️ Invalidation:
Any clean break and sustained close above the D-leg supply zone would invalidate this short setup.
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Conclusion:
EUR/USD is at a critical juncture. Sellers are active, and rejection here could open the door for a deeper drop into the FVG orderblock zone. Keep risk tight and watch for confirmations before entry.
💬 What’s your take — are you bearish from here, or do you expect a breakout? Comment below 👇
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#EURUSD #ElliottWave #Forex #SmartMoney #Liquidity #FVG #Orderblock #Trading
Gold Update Today – Watching FOMC in the US SessionGold Update Today – Watching FOMC in the US Session
After yesterday’s sharp drop below 3312 and a strong bounce from key support, gold is now consolidating sideways, building liquidity for the next move. From the current outlook, a corrective rebound seems likely before the broader downtrend resumes.
Looking at structure, the descending channel remains intact, with price respecting the main trendline and notably breaking out of yesterday’s triangle formation — reinforcing the bearish bias.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market may be forming wave 4. If this rebound carries price back towards 3325–3330, it will retest a strong resistance zone that has rejected price multiple times before. Should that happen, wave 5 could begin — and theory suggests it is often the strongest leg.
Fibonacci levels point to the next support near 3295. If tonight’s FOMC outcome strengthens the US dollar, gold could even extend deeper towards 3280.
In the short term, traders may consider buying near 3316 with a tight stop just below the recent low, targeting the corrective move of wave 4. On the flip side, if price reacts at 3325–3330, this could provide a selling opportunity into wave 5, with scope for a 40–50 dollar extension if momentum holds.
On the daily chart, gold has tested the long-term ascending trendline and bounced strongly, which may indicate that a fresh support base is being established.
A sustainable trend is always built on alternating impulses and corrections. Patience in waiting for confirmation often leads to stronger setups than rushing into trades.
Do you think the FOMC this month will announce a positive interest rate outlook? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#XAUUSD #Gold #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #ElliottWave #Trendline #MACD #Forex #UKTrading #FOMC






















