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Emergingmarkets

SHORT on USD/ZAR - Bearish BAT + FundamentalsUSD/ZAR presents a nice short, as recent gains in USD may not be sustainable. Price broke above the parallel channel , I believe the pair is overpriced. A nice Bat-Pattern indicates a good short back in the channel. Target around 12.0000 Fundamentally , rate increase and the US 10 year treasury yield at its highest since 2014 provoked such a hike. Take the trade but watch the US yield closely. As Europe and Canada are increasing their rates as well, the US dollar is expected to lose value. In addition, the IMF increased its forecast for growth in South Africa to 3.4% for 2018; we can hope for unemployment to go down in the next months. I see a good chance for USD/ZAR to go down even further.
Short
by Tutur
1
mother of all charts US 10 yr yieldshigher dxy real rates spread increse => pressure on gold prices? bearish for across the board EM assets terrible news for etf managers china to start thinking about all the 1.3 bn usd worth of almost 0 yield US papers they hold imf and wb funding become more important => sharing policy making decissions with the west again .... for the sector, it means importance of the managed funds will increase. stock picking will be the name of the game again thanx god....
TVC:US10Y
by tncckn
Not all bonds are declining!EMLC has just experienced a bullish breakout of a wedge pattern. That occurred above support (23.6% retracement of all-time high to all-time low), which lends to the bullish slant. It's also recently tested and held a rising channel bottom and had a bullish breakout in the RSI, further strengthening the bullish setup. Volume has been robust and accelerating, as well, suggesting conviction in the move higher. As rates rise, bonds will obviously fall in value. However, that's not the case everywhere. EMLC primarily owns emerging market government debt (>96% of holdings), along with a few corporate bonds. It invests in debts in the local currency, which reduces exchange rate risks. It has vastly outperformed US government debt with a 1-year return of +11.2%. Compare that to SHY, IEI, IEF, and TLT 1-year returns of -0.1%, -0.41%, -0.54%, and +3.0%, respectively. Not only is the fund experiencing price appreciation, but it also offers a 5.3% dividend via monthly distributions. This is a great place to park cash and achieve some return while market turbulence and volatility prevail. I'm a buyer at current levels, with an intermediate term target of $20.81, the 38.2% retracement.
AMEX:EMLCLong
by EchoAlphaBravo
Move on, nothing to see hereSideways movement predicted for USDCNH till the end of 2017. Nothing to see here, move on to another pair. Fundamentals -CNY fixing (Higher swaps -> lesser short interest) (Authority looking to keep yuan stable. Volatile Yuan -> Bad for economy) -Fed Rate Decision (Yuan least affected by fed decision -> see capital flows for direction of currency) -Balance of Payments (Don't expect BOP to deviate in extreme fashion -> See FX reserves) -Devalued Yuan is providing support to economy -> improvement in industrial profits Technicals Strong resistance at 7.0, Support expected to deviate between 6.7 - 6.75 Black Swan Events -Real Estate Bubble pops - 20% (Personally, I do not expect the bubble to pop in 2017. Open for debate) No further explanation needed -Donald Trump - 5% (North Korea deal informally reached? -> See Xi's visit to US) "China is a currency manipulator" -> competitive devaluation
by AnthonyLi7f