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Ending Diagonal

EWA. EURUSD - An Ending Diagonal (Wedge)And so, after a little break in falling down, in the middle of august '15, EURO continues his journey to the south. Perhaps, now there is forming an ending diagonal in the wave 5 (or c). Why do I think so? As we can see, there are a lot of correction waves (ABC), both up and down. Therefore, there are two possible scenarios: The correction up will continue in the wave C, and the whole model will be a flat (marked with gray color). In this case, wave C can be an ending diagonal as well. There will be formed an endind diagonal, and the current "ABC's" are its wave I and II. After it's finished, the currency will start a major correction, but it'll be not earlier than next year. Why do I think it's the second scenario, even the ending diagonals are not so common? In the wave II, there were formed a beautiful triangle in its wave {B}. As we remember, accordind to the Elliot Wave rules, a triangle could be only a wave 4 or B. Obviously, it cannot be a wave 4, therefore it's a B-wave. The question is, it's a B-wave in the I-st wave of upside diagonal or it is in the II-nd wave of the downside diagonal? My trading plan: March has started with a little correction, and it's a good oportunity to sell. So, I open a short possition, even the correction can go further, with a stop-loss order at the local maximum - 1,137. Once the order is filled, it means I will trade the second scenario. I want to trade wave 3 only (because to trade wave 5 in an ending diagonal is too dangerous), so the target zone is, at least, 1,05, but probably it will be 1,04 or even more. So, the risk/reward ratio is acceptable.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn90040
1
USDCHF - MAJOR BEARISH REVERSAL COULD UNFOLD After SNB's intervention in 2011 and again in 2015 I felt that I would never again trade and CHF pairs. However, It is now giving the most clearest long term wave counts of any USD pairs which also confirms my view of USD bearish cycle I have held since late 2013, see other charts link below. Whilst I have been little early and premature in thinking the top in dollars has formed in my earlier publications, the overall picture has not changed and this is now potentially offering massive profit opportunity. Under this scenario the USD appears to be in a major bearish cycle which is in the final stage, taking the form of Ending Diagonal commencing from 1987 (as Tradingview do not have necessary historical data, for details please see Screencast chart link - www.screencast.com ) which is shown in monthly chart (see below) to give full picture of this potential ending diagonal (falling wedge of 3-3-3-3-3 construction). It seems highly likely that wave 4 has just completed and wave 5 of ending diagonal has commence and if it develops as anticipated could give some 3000 - 4000 pips and risking less than 500 pips. In fact that is based on weekly chart, but if drop down to daily or H4 entry could be taken with lot smaller stop loss. I understand this view would go against the general sentiments in favour of USD and lots talked about raising interest which would be USD positive. There are so many cross currents at work to really consider for anyone to see clear picture based on that fundamental. Therefore my view here is based entirely on Technical Analysis and my interpretation of Elliottewave Principle. So in summary: 1. Final stage of major bearish cycle in the form of ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction 2. Major top (wave 4) appears to have formed, with 2 attempted failures to break above previous highs (resistance) 3. Entry almost immediate (maximum stop under 400 pips), but on lower timeframe upon a pullback to Ideally to 1.0 - 1.01 zone with stop loss at 1.0275, ie approx 230 Pip (see H4 chart below) 4. Potential downside target offering 3000 - 4000 pips with some intermediate targets areas along the way. 5. To add confidence in coming to above conclusion see additional charts of other USD pairs giving the same overall view. 6. Invalidation would be price taking out the recent high at 1.0250. 7. If you trade on smaller time frame and wish to follow the trend then various methods could be used to manage the trade and look of re-entering short positions only and/or adding position on significant retracements. Conclusion: If the above anticipated in USD unfolds then this could offer similar opportunities across several USD pairs in various degree. At the same time I anticipate significant bearish cycle in stock and putting this things together suggest possible outflow of money from USA's soil under repatriation of funds or unwinding carry trade with YEN being the strongest of all major currencies. Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most5 but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV danv-charting.com
Short
by DanV
26
Gold Shines Brighter - Cloud Looms Near 1137-1150Wednesday afternoon, the Fed shares with us their view on monetary policy in the US. In advance of the news events, we like to take a step back and assess the patterns on the chart to identify some key levels to watch out for. This allows us to detach as best as possible when the news is released. Going into the news Wednesday afternoon, we're following this longer term ending diagonal pattern that many have written about from an Elliott Wave perspective. Though the Dec 3 2015 low did get pretty close to the lower boundary of the diagonal, we're leaving the door open that it was only wave A of (5). That means the current rise would be B of (5). Once 'B' is finished, then another sell off would ensue in wave C of (5) which may be the final wave lower. 1137-1150 has been identified as a key level. This is the price zone where the (2)-(4) trend line and 61.8-78.6 retracement (of the Oct - Dec 2015 downtrend) reside. There may be a reaction lower near that zone. My colleague Ilya Spivak notes how the price of Gold has maintained an inverse correlation lately to the Fed Funds futures. I would encourage you to read more about that in his Q1 2016 Gold Forecast available here . Another interesting point to consider is that FXCM's SentimentIndex flipped to negative earlier today. The reading has been positive for more than 2 months. So this flip to negative expresses the potential for additional bullish juice available. This may push the prices higher into the cited zone of 1137-1150. Watch the SentimentIndex in real time to see how it behaves if prices do make it in the potential reversal zone. An alternate that we're considering is that the diagonal is finished which implies a break above wave (4). A move above the (2)-(4) trend line may provide an early warning signal to such a move. Good luck and happy trading!
FX:XAUUSD
by JWagnerFXTrader
1
BCEI: Possible Ending Diagonal to Spark Huge RallyBCEI may have completed an ending diagonal at the end of wave C of a zig-zag correction. This could send the pair on a rally toward its price target at around $9. In addition to the wave count, the current level is confluent between .618A=C, 1.786i=v, and iii=v which are all important levels to watch for support and resistance, especially toward the end of the final wave in the sequence. It should also be noted that the stock has a price target of $9 according to research analysts at KLR Group.
BLong
by glennmercer
Long SUNE: Entry at Thrust Target Through Completion of (iv)On the daily TF, we are in the midst of the fifth and final wave of an expanding ending diagonal, counted as C of an ABC zig-zag correction. The monster buying opportunity will be at the completion of this C wave, however, we may be presented with a short term long opportunity with a R/R of 8.5. The current count is wave-b-of-(c) in a potential flat correction which may complete the fourth wave corrective structure in the last leg of the ending diagonal of C. The triangle thrust is confluent with AB=.618CD and is supported by wave-iii low, so a tight stop is not unreasonable here. There will be two targets, one at (a)=(c), which is conservative, and another at the more aggressive yet probable fourth wave terminus at (a)=1.5(c) in previous fourth wave territory. If the trade triggers and travels to target, I will not be taking a short position but instead will wait for C to complete for a long term buy-and-hold.
SLong
by glennmercer
1
Alternative Count for Diagonal Pattern - 1.4639 Key LevelLast week, we shared an Elliott Wave count which was medium term bullish based on a diagonal pattern that may be ending soon. Today, I would like to add a little twist and another variation of the count. The resolution is similar to the post from last week except prices may dig a little deeper. Under the count above, 1.4639 is the key level that keeps (iii) from being the shortest of waves (i), (iii), (v). So if we get down into the 1.47 handle, a good risk to reward ratio opportunity develops to the long side using 1.4625 as a stop loss. One other interesting point, the blue and red shaded areas represent a 3 standard deviation for the past year. Oddly enough, the 3 SD comes into play near 1.46. Therefore, I am more interested in GBPUSD to the long side over the medium term. Keep an eye on the sentiment reading through the real time Speculative Sentiment Index . If this reading continues to grow, that could become a head wind for the bullish outlook. Remember, this is just another variation of the diagonal count from last week. A break above the red or purple resistance line would indicate the diagonal could be over. A pattern we're watching on the GBPJPY also appears to have some bullish juice in it as well. Happy trading!
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
4
Diagonal Pattern - Bullish or Bearish GBPUSD? 1.5290 KeyTaking a step back, this move from the summer 2015 highs is either a 'B' wave or a diagonal of some sort. This could be a leading diagonal lower in a wave 3, but the higher probability count is an ending diagonal of a 'B' labeled in the chart above. The wave relationships play out to where the Dec low occurs near 1.618 at multiple levels. Based on the wave count above, blue wave 'C' would move higher in 5 waves. The question is, does it take place from current levels or slightly lower levels? I don't have the answer to that but a break above the red ii-iv trend line would give us a long signal. That line crosses near 1.5290. If prices break to new lows before we break the red ii-iv line, I would shift the labels on the ending diagonal to the right meaning the resolution is similar, but starting from lower levels. Notice how the Speculative Sentiment Index (S.S.I.) is getting progressively smaller on each dip lower. It has shrunk from +3.5 to + 2.5 to + 1.5 (approximately) on each dip. This is another bullish undertone to the market and factored into the preference towards this being a 'B' wave. Follow real time sentiment her e to see if it grows more negative if prices push above the red resistance line.
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
3