Brent’s rejection at the rising trend line coming from Jan 2016 low and Nov 2016 low despite the surprise drawdown in the US inventories reported by the EIA in the North American session yesterday has opened doors for a sell-off to $49.75 (Mar 20 low). A weekly close below $49.75 would add credence to the falling top formation, the breach of the rising trend...
Failure at the falling trend line hurdle last week followed by Friday’s close below the rising trend line (coming from Feb 2016 low and Nov 2016 low) signals the rally from the Feb 2016 low has ended and prices could test and possibly breach $49.75 (Mar 2017 low), in which case doors would be opened for $46.43 (38.2% of Feb 2016 low – 2017 high). Only a weekly...
The odds of the oil prices breaching the resistance at $56.25 (falling trend line - red) are low, given the daily RSI is near the overbought territory. The RSI was last overbought in June 2016. Since then the prices have either turned lower or we have had bearish divergence with RSI between 60-70. Hence, caution is advised. Fresh bids are seen only after two...
Yesterday’s bearish inverted hammer candle and a failure to hold above the 50-DMA and 100-DMA suggest the bulls need to be cautious. A bearish follow through today would put in place a falling top formation. That would be followed by a bearish 50-DMA and 100-DMA crossover and re-test of support at $49.59 (Mar 16 high).
Brent’s convincing bullish break from the falling channel on Wednesday followed by a rebound from the psychological level of $52.00 and a subsequent rise above $52.62 today suggests the prices are on track to test strong resistance around $53.50 (Jan 10 low). On the lower side, only a daily close back inside the falling channel would signal bullish invalidation....
Once is a fluke twice is a coincidence and thrice is pattern! Brent Oil is once again staging a rebound from the 200-DMA at a time when the RSI is oversold. I am pretty sure here that oil has found a bottom around $50-$49.75 levels… as the multiple daily candles with long tails suggest. However, I would want to see prices break on the upside of the minor falling...
The monthly classic pivot support 3 located at $50.27 has been successfully defended over the last four trading days. Despite the fact that the dips below $50.27 were short lived, the subsequent corrective move has failed around $51.00 handle for three trading days including today… that too despite RSI being oversold. The ADX line is rising as well, pointing to...
ON previous two occasions, dips below weekly 50-MA proved to be short lived/bear traps. We need to see if the pattern is followed for the third time as well…
Oil failed at $48.94 (23.6% fib) on Wednesday, faded spike above the same on Thursday and witnessed a rejection at the key fib level again in the Asian session today. The price action suggests potential for a fall back to $48.00. The short-term averages- 5-DMA and 10-DMA look overstretched, hence, prices may not drop much below $48.00 levels.
On last two occasions, oil price staged a strong rebound from around 200-DMA levels. On both occasions, the RSI was oversold as well. This time, the RSI is oversold as well. But wait, look at the 50-DMA... it has topped out this time around. Will history repeat itself?
As all of you know, Crude has declined quite a bit. Weekly Analysis still shows nice possibility to join the move. The 1. target should be around 43. This opportunity has 1 negative: Large stop - around 54 And you need to be aware of possible quick rejection - then the trade should be quickly cancelled.
Today after Inventories CL falls DOWN. It creates second break out down and starts creating trading structure. For me it is not a trade but interesting opportunity. It is nearby 2 stronger rejections where one should move SL to BE. Initial SL should BE around 54. First target 50 with big opportunity to go much more down if the market will be quick enough.
On the daily chart, we see breach of the rising trend line followed by a sideways channel. The RSI too is in a sideways channel, however, the DMI now shows a bearish crossover, which suggests heightened odds of prices breaking below the recent low of $55.01, in which case the support at $53.60 (Jan 10 low) could be put to test. On the higher side, a break above...
Everything is pretty much shown in the chart. I have heard Natural Gas is hard to technically analyze but in my limited experience patterns seem to work pretty well. ---If price continues to the top trendline, I will look to see if it forms in 3 waves. If so, I will be more confident this is a triangle and will look to long around the E point (perhaps right...
I am looking forward to seeing how this idea/trade pans out. If today's bearish momentum continues but slows I will be looking to buy within the zone designated by the rectangle on the chart. This zone is: Completion of Bullish AB=CD pattern Structure to the left If crude oil makes it to the completion point RSI will likely be oversold On the longer time...
The breach of rising trend line followed by a falling tops formation suggests a potential for a drop to head and shoulder neckline level of $51.00 levels. A break below the same cannot be ruled out, although the losses are likely to be restricted around $50.60 (50-DMA) levels. All three major averages – 50, 100 & 200 – are perfectly aligned and are sloping...
Early this morning Natural Gas broke the trendline and has begun to consolidate. Thus I am short-term bearish on Natural Gas and looking for sell set-ups. I usually stay off of the 15 minute for trade ideas but as this is coherent with my short term analysis for this pair I will look to take this trade. The bearish AB=CD pattern may complete around the .5...
OPEC: Stakes are high The OPEC will try to reach an output deal in order to raise prices. The meeting has been rescheduled to 9 GMT from 10 GMT. It is far from clear whether the Cartel will succeed. It was agreed in principle in September to restrict production, but now Saudi is asking other members… especially Iran and Iraq to accept deep production cuts....