NQ Weekly Outlook – Week 32 of 2026 (10-14 AUG)NQ WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
NQ Weekly Recap Outlook
We took a total of three trades last week.
Two were long setups and one was a short setup. All three trades finished as winners, resulting in a 100% win rate and a highly profitable week.
1. Key Level Breakout Long Scenario: Generated a 1,550-point move, representing approximately a 5.5% upside move.
2. Supply Short Scenario: Captured a 650-point downside move, representing approximately a 2.2% decline.
3. Flip Level Bounce Long Scenario: Generated a 500-point move, representing approximately a 1.75% upside move.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 3
Winning Trades: 3
Losing Trades: 0
Win Rate: 100%
Long Trades: 2 Wins
Short Trades: 1 Win
Result: Another deep green week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops.
Given the potential for acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
DEMAND 1 (29831)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every 50 points of advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 29150.
Long Scenario 2
DEMAND 2 (28508)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this area and confirms support, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every 50 points of advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 28200.
Long Scenario 3
Flip Level (30120)
This is the primary Flip Level. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 4-hour bullish candle close, the market structure may shift further toward the upside and long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must break above the level and produce a bullish 4-hour candle close above the zone. A subsequent retest of the level provides the entry trigger.
Targets: Take partial profits after every 50 points of advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 29156.
Short Scenario
Flip Level (29900)
This level represents the lower boundary of the Flip Level. A confirmed rejection from this area could provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 4-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every 50 points of decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 30120.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Long
ES Weekly Outlook – Week 32 of 2026 (10-14 AUG)ES WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
ES Weekly Recap Outlook
Last week, ES did not provide the retest we were waiting for, so no trade was taken. However, the bullish move toward all-time highs developed aggressively in the direction outlined in our previous outlook.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
[bUA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 8
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 2
Win Rate: 75%
Index Options: 7 Trades (5 Wins / 2 Losses)
Futures Desk: 1 Trade (1 Win — ES)
Tactical Equities: 0 Trades
Result: Another deep green week.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops.
Given the potential for acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (7725)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every 5 points of advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 7725.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (7695)
This is the main demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every 5 points of advance.
Invalidation: Daily candle close below 7645.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each setup carefully before entering.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique for each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY & QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES & NQ charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Long
Short 
Weekly Review (Aug 10-14): Gold, Silver & S&PWeekly review for August 10–14. Not signals, just how I read the tape with the Conflux Method: structure (Reaction Levels), order flow and options data. Metals are the focus this week, with gold and silver in a squeeze, and a very big hedge that went in on the S&P.
COMEX:GCZ2026 (Gold, main chart above)
It's simpler here, I'll be watching the open. If it goes through the top, sells off 4532. If they come out even higher, to the 10% zone, then after an impulse forms I'll look at sells there too. With buys it's even simpler, 4223 looks great. And the contract's maximum volatility is at 5250 right now, if silver does go to 100.
COMEX:SIU2026 / COMEX:SIZ2026 (Silver)
For now the plan is to work it like this: if they pull back, in the clusters the 60 zone is the better-confirmed one. A spread also went in at 92–100, and right now on the chart you can see the same accumulation as back in September before the move up, an interesting coincidence. I'll be putting my buy takes onto that spread if they let me in. Above, I'll also try to catch shorts if Monday opens with a rise, since it's still unclear on the agreement between the US and Iran. At the 60 level, besides the confirmation from the clusters, there's also an intersection of two Fibonacci grids and the strongest Reaction Level zone together with Renko and P/F.
NYMEX:PL1! (Platinum)
It's also interesting to take a look at platinum futures. I often watch platinum as an indicator for spotting a nascent trend, and here there's no reversal in sight at all. That's a bit concerning, but we'll see.
CME_MINI:ESZ2026 (S&P 500)
A very big hedge went in here, really very big. If there's a decline, I'll work with futures in the 7600–7650 and 7500–7550 ranges, that is, where there are Reaction Level zones. This is the markup on the December contract. Ideally these portfolios already come with a future, but they can go in without one if they intend to buy back lower. So they've highlighted for us, with the options, what to work with, and also where to sell on a reversal from the upper portfolios.
These are zones and scenarios I'm watching, not a call to trade. Let price come to your levels and let the reads converge first.
Educational only, not investment advice. Trading carries a high risk of capital loss. Past results don't guarantee future performance.
#ConfluxMethod #trading #futures #options #gold #silver #platinum #orderflow NQ Weekly Outlook – Week 31 of 2026 (03-07 AUG)UA CAPITAL Weekly Execution Metrics
Total Trades Taken: 7
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 1
Win Rate: 85.7%
Index Options: 4 Trades (3 Wins / 1 Loss)
Futures Desk: 2 Trades (2 Wins — ES & NQ)
Tactical Equities: 1 Trade (1 Win — NASDAQ:AAPL )
NQ WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both buyers and sellers competing aggressively for control before the market commits to its next larger directional move.
Given the potential for sharp acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our primary focus this week will remain on disciplined execution, aggressive profit-taking, and strict risk management.
Rather than attempting to predict the next move, we will continue reacting to price only after confirmation at our predefined key levels.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
Key Level: 28,526
Trigger: Bullish 1-hour reclaim.
Targets: Take partial profits every 50 points.
Invalidation: 4-hour close below 28,170.
Long Scenario 2
Flip Level: 28,380
Trigger: Bullish 4-hour reclaim followed by a successful retest.
Targets: Take partial profits every 50 points.
Invalidation: 4-hour close below 29,156.
Short Scenario 1
Flip Level: 28,156
This level forms the lower boundary of the Flip Zone.
Trigger: Bearish rejection after retesting the area.
Targets: Take partial profits every 50 points.
Invalidation: 4-hour close above 29,380.
Short Scenario 2
Main Supply: 29,932
Trigger: Bearish rejection after retesting the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits every 50 points.
Invalidation: 4-hour close above 30,134.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Unique for every scenario. Read each trigger carefully before entering a position.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique to each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. SPY and QQQ charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ES and NQ futures charts use ETH (Electronic Trading Hours).
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice. 
Long
Broad Risk-On Move But Volatility and Credit Refuse to ConfirmMarket Regime
Broad Risk-On, with a major volatility and credit divergence.
Tuesday produced a powerful advance across ES, NQ, YM, and RTY. ES trended higher almost uninterrupted, left a large LVN beneath price, and successfully defended the new HVN shelf on its only meaningful pullback. NQ continued toward the psychological 30,000 level.
Unlike Monday, the strength was no longer concentrated. YM and RTY joined with stronger CVD, RSP caught up significantly, ADD and VOLD advanced, the S5 breadth indicators improved, and consumer discretionary outperformed staples.
Treasury yields also declined across the curve while TLT rallied, providing clean macro support.
The Contradiction
Despite the broad equity advance, VIX and VX both rose.
Volatility reclaimed VWAP and EMA-cloud structure, moved toward an overhead LVN, and was supported by strong CVD. VIX1D also finished higher.
Credit did not fully confirm either. HYG/LQD declined for a second consecutive session, although no major longer-term support has broken.
The current message is not outright risk-off. It suggests investors are participating in the equity advance while simultaneously adding protection.
Leadership
Semiconductor participation improved.
SMH broke above its longer-term downtrend, retested it, and bounced. SOX advanced, while AVGO held a new HVN shelf above a large LVN.
Leadership remains uneven. NVDA’s after-hours squeeze lacks equally strong CVD confirmation, AMD erased a substantial two-day advance late in the session, and MU remains beneath its descending trendline.
The hyperscalers remain strong. MSFT, GOOGL, and ORCL continue stair-stepping higher, while META maintains a possible cup-and-handle structure. Momentum divergences are beginning to appear in several extended leaders.
Funding Plumbing
SOFR remains orderly near 3.64%, ON RRP usage remains negligible, and the elevated TGA continues to represent routine reserve tightening rather than funding stress.
The Fed earnings-remittance balance reflects its accumulated deferred operating losses and is not a useful daily funding-stress indicator.
What Changed?
Monday’s concentrated risk-on move broadened significantly Tuesday.
RTY, YM, RSP, breadth, semiconductors, financials, and falling yields all provided stronger confirmation.
The new concern is the simultaneous rise in volatility and continued weakness in HYG/LQD.
Wednesday I’m Watching
VIX/VX accepting higher versus rejecting their overhead LVN.
NQ’s reaction at 30,000.
ES holding the LVN and HVN support beneath Tuesday’s rally.
HYG/LQD stabilizing after two weaker sessions.
NVDA confirming its after-hours strength during cash trading.
SMH holding its breakout and retest.
AMD defending its reclaimed trendline.
Continued RSP/RTY and ADD/VOLD participation.
Yields remaining beneath daily moving averages.
DXY remaining below its major rejected level.
Confidence
Medium.
Price, breadth, and rates strongly favor buyers, but rising volatility, weakening credit confirmation, overbought momentum, and multiple CVD/RSI divergences argue against blindly chasing the breakout.
This is my personal market journal and analysis process - not financial advice. Updated SPY | SPX Strategy/Outlook | FED Special (29 JUL)Updated SPY | SPX Strategy/Outlook
Market Update | Fed Special
Markets are entering one of the highest uncertainty events of the year.
The renewed US-Iran conflict, the disruption of shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that has pushed oil prices sharply higher, and China's rapid progress in domestic semiconductor manufacturing have created a challenging backdrop for global risk assets.
With tonight's FOMC rate decision approaching, uncertainty has reached extreme levels. Although the market still expects rates to remain unchanged, the probability of a surprise hawkish outcome remains elevated, and more importantly, the tone of Chair Powell and Kevin Warsh's comments will likely determine the market's medium-term direction.
Risk Index
The Risk Index continues to price in short-term downside risk.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on.
However, both the short and medium-term models continue to warn that a sharp downside flush remains a realistic possibility.
Until market conditions improve, risk management should remain the primary focus.
SPY | SPX Strategy / Outlook
Before discussing today's trade setups, I want to emphasize one point.
I do not recommend initiating new positions ahead of tonight's FOMC rate decision.
The unnecessary volatility surrounding the announcement creates poor risk-to-reward conditions, even when technical setups appear attractive.
The trading plans below are intended to be executed only after the Fed decision, once volatility begins to normalize and price confirms direction.
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (738.5)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 734.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (723)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 718.
Short Scenario 1
Main Supply (747)
This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 750.
Short Scenario 2
Breakdown Below Key Level 1 (734)
If price breaks impulsively below the lower boundary of Key Level 1 at 734 and confirms the move with a 1-hour candle close, short exposure can be considered.
Trigger: An impulsive breakdown below 734, followed by a retest and a confirmed 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close above 739.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: 1-hour candle close above or below the designated level.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique to each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. Charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ETH can provide incorrect candle confirmation.
Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, tactical SPY/SPX - QQQ outlooks, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 30 of 2026 (27-31 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
UA CAPITAL RECAP | WEEK 20–24 JUL
2026's 29th week ended slightly green after combining the trades taken throughout the week with the profits generated following the loss we experienced midweek.
Although this was not a deep green PnL week, we continued to maintain our no red week since YTD record through disciplined risk and position management.
(For reference I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
Markets spent the first half of the week caught between geopolitical uncertainty and tightening macro liquidity conditions. Price action initially remained choppy and range-bound as markets attempted to digest the evolving geopolitical environment.
As the situation deteriorated further and additional negative headlines emerged, markets transitioned into a more pronounced downside trend from the middle of the week onward.
Monday's Weekly Market Outlook scenario eventually triggered at Tuesday's open.
Our SPY Long Scenario 1 produced a 2.25-point move, approximately 0.3% to the upside. We took two partial profits during the move and subsequently moved the remaining position to breakeven.
The remaining runner was eventually stopped at breakeven following Wednesday's opening. Overall, the trade delivered a profitable outcome as planned.
On the QQQ side, none of our planned scenarios triggered, so no trade was taken.
On Wednesday, an updated Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook was published in response to the changing market structure.
A SPY trade was taken according to the updated scenario. However, the position moved into drawdown without reaching our initial partial profit targets.
Since the invalidation level had not been reached, we remained committed to the plan and continued holding the position into the close.
After further downside movement overnight and during the premarket session, price eventually bounced at the open. We used that reaction to exit the position at a loss.
The trade resulted in an approximately 10-point decline, representing a loss of roughly 1.3%.
Although the trade ended in a loss, the position was managed according to the predefined invalidation framework rather than being closed prematurely based on emotion.
On Thursday, the SPY technical structure produced a highly successful ES futures trade.
The trade generated approximately 18 points of profit and provided an excellent opportunity through the futures market.
No QQQ trade was taken on Thursday.
Friday delivered a significantly more active session.
Based on the Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook, we monitored both SPY and QQQ while executing through ES and NQ futures.
The execution was highly precise and resulted in several profitable trades.
On the QQQ side, the initial long trade taken around the opening session captured an approximately 4.5-point move, representing roughly 0.66% upside.
Later around midday, we transitioned into a short position and captured a full 6-point decline, approximately 0.87% to the downside.
QQQ therefore finished Friday with two trades and two winners.
On the SPY side, both long and short opportunities were executed through ES futures based on the SPY structure.
The initial morning long trade captured approximately 20 points in ES in roughly 10 minutes.
Later, the short setup also delivered a 4.5-point downside move in SPY terms, approximately 0.62%.
Both trades closed profitably.
Overall Recap
In total, seven trades were executed throughout the week across both options and futures.
The final result was:
6 wins
1 loss
Approximately 85% win rate
More importantly, all five futures trades taken during the week finished as winners, resulting in a 100% win rate across our futures execution.
Overall, it was another highly successful week.
The combination of risk management, position sizing, partial profit taking, breakeven management, and disciplined execution allows the overall portfolio to remain profitable even when individual trades do not work.
The no red week since YTD record remains intact.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another significant downside flush.
The long-term algorithm remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility.
Both sides of the market remain under pressure, and the probability of a larger directional move continues to increase. Markets could eventually resolve this compression through either a deeper correction or a powerful upside breakout.
Given the possibility of acceleration in either direction and potentially violent reversals, we will continue to focus on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.
We do not need to predict the direction of the next major move.
We will wait for price to reach our predefined levels, wait for confirmation, and react accordingly.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (742)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 740.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (736)
This is the major Put Wall and an important demand area. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 735.
Long Scenario 3
KEY Level 3 (730)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 727.
Short Scenario
Main Supply (752)
This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 757.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: 1-hour candle close above or below the designated level.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk-free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Invalidation levels are unique to each scenario. Read them carefully.
6. Charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ETH can provide incorrect candle confirmation.
Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, tactical SPY/SPX - QQQ outlooks, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
ES H1: Last Week's Low Already Broke⚡ ES H1: Last Week's Low Already Broke — the 7,397 Retest Decides 7,563 or 7,335
▪️ ES H1 SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪️ The S&P 500 is at 7,397.75, back underneath a weekly low it has already lost. The prior week's low at 7,412 graded just 4.6/10 Weak — and weak levels break. It was accepted through, price extended to the downside, and this is the retest from below.
▪️ Primary outlook is bearish-while-below 7,412. That broken shelf is now overhead supply, not support. This is the cleanest structural read on the desk this week.
▪️ Overhead: 7,412 caps it first, then the golden pocket at 7,500–7,490, with 7,563 at 7.5/10 Strong as the level that actually matters. Above there sit two untouched weekly highs at 7,632 and 7,649.
▪️ Immediate pivot: 7,397 — the stop-run band price is resting on right now. Holding it keeps the retest alive; losing it resumes the move.
▪️ Downside objectives: 7,355 on a confirmed close, then 7,335 as the measured range-extension target.
▪️ Liquidity note: the weekly opening gap has already filled at 7,470, so there is no unfinished business overhead until 7,632.
▪️ Bullish scenario: reclaim 7,412 and close back above it, and the broken low flips back to support — that opens 7,490 and then 7,563.
▪️ KEY LEVELS
RESISTANCEs
▪️ 7,649 / 7,632 — Virgin PWH · never tagged
▪️ 7,620 — Acceptance Level
▪️ 7,579 — Sweep Trap Level
▪️ 7,563 — PWH ★★★ 7.5 Strong · Intact
▪️ 7,500–7,490 — Golden Pocket / Equilibrium 50%
▪️ 7,412 — ★ 4.6 Weak · Accepted → flipped overhead
▪️ Current Price: 7,397.75
SUPPORTs
▪️ 7,397 — Sweep Trap Level
▪️ 7,355 — Acceptance Level
▪️ 7,335 — Range Extension Target
▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk — Overview of key weekly zones for ES, XAUUSD, EURUSD, BTC & XAGUSD traders every week. Subscribe to stay up to date with the latest levels.
▪️ Get the same weekly levels plotted on your own chart with the free TradingView indicator
▪️ Short 
ES H2: Hold 7,522 or Fall to 7,357?▪️ ES H2 SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪️ the S&P 500 is balancing near 7,481, boxed between a well-defined floor and ceiling with no clear control. The market is rotating sideways as it waits for a catalyst.
▪️ Primary outlook is mildly bullish— 7,525 is the strong resistance. The first clean break of the range sets the tone. 7,575 possible after break above 7,525.
▪️ Key resistance zone: 7,522, defended 27 times. Above that sits 7,574, then 7,631.
▪️ Range floor: 7,412 — a very strong level at 30 retests. Lose it and the balance breaks lower.
▪️ Primary downside targets on a break: 7,357, where liquidity pools.
▪️ Major liquidity magnet below: 7,412–7,357 — the zone that would pull price if the floor cracks.
▪️ Bullish scenario: A daily close back above 7,522 flips the tape and targets 7,574, then 7,631.
▪️ KEY LEVELS
▪️ Current Price: 7,481
RESISTANCEs
▪️ 7,631 — ★★★ 7.2 Strong · 8 retests
▪️ 7,574 — ★★ 6.8 Moderate · 30 retests
▪️ 7,522 — ★★★ 7.8 Strong · 27 retests
SUPPORTs
▪️ 7,412 — ★★★★ 8.1 Very Strong · 30 retests
▪️ 7,357 — ★ 4.9 Weak · 10 retests
▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk — Overview of key S/R zones for indices, metals, FX, NVDA, NQ, GC & GBPUSD traders every week. Subscribe to stay up to date with the latest levels. Long 
NQ Range Trap: 39-Retest Ceiling in Play, Stacked Liquidity▪️ NQ H1 SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪️ the Nasdaq trades near 28,735 in the belly of its range, with clear supply overhead and clear demand beneath. Neither side has forced the issue — structure is compressing.
▪️ Primary outlook is neutral/bullish — 28,682 is the hinge. Expect the range to resolve, not to persist forever; trade the edges until it breaks.
▪️ Key resistance zone: 28,934, leaned on 26 times. Above that sits 29,193, then 29,394.
▪️ Major defense line: 28,682 — a moderate level at 16 retests, the shelf that anchors the whole structure.
▪️ Primary downside targets: 28,244, followed by 28,172, where liquidity and demand are stacked.
▪️ Major liquidity magnet below: 28,244–28,172 — this pocket is the downside draw on a break.
▪️ Bullish scenario: Reclaim 28,934 and the balance shifts higher toward 29,193, with 30,010 beyond.
▪️ KEY LEVELSs
▪️ Current Price: 28,735
RESISTANCE
▪️ 30,010 — ★ 4.8 Weak · 27 retests
▪️ 29,766 — ★★ 6.3 Moderate · 40 retests
▪️ 29,394 — ★★★ 7.4 Strong · 39 retests
▪️ 29,193 — ★★ 6.2 Moderate · 7 retests
▪️ 28,934 — ★★★ 7.1 Strong · 26 retests
SUPPORT
▪️ 28,682 — ★★ 6.8 Moderate · 16 retests
▪️ 28,244 — ★ 5.0 Weak · 3 retests
▪️ 28,172 — ★★ 6.7 Moderate · 3 retests
▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk — Overview of key S/R zones for NQ, NVDA, ES, GC & GBPUSD traders every week. Subscribe to stay up to date with the latest levels. Long 
ES @ 7,444: The 8.1/10 Wall at 7,476 vs Very Strong 7,410▪️ ES H2 SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪️ the S&P 500 is rotating near 7,444 inside a well-worn range, respected on both sides. Price is fair-valued between supply and demand.
▪️ Primary outlook is neutral — 7,476 is the level to watch; the range holds until it doesn't.
▪️ Key resistance zone: 7,476, leaned on 17 times. Above that sits 7,556, then 7,631.
▪️ Major defense line: 7,410 — a very strong level at 28 retests, the floor that has repeatedly turned price.
▪️ Primary downside targets on a break: 7,358, where liquidity pools.
▪️ Major liquidity magnet below: 7,410–7,358 — the pull if the floor cracks.
▪️ Bullish scenario: Reclaim 7,476 and the balance shifts higher toward 7,556, with 7,631 beyond.
▪️ KEY LEVELS
▪️ Current Price: 7,444
RESISTANCEs
▪️ 7,631 — ★★★ 7.6 Strong · 8 retests
▪️ 7,556 — ★★★★ 8.2 Very Strong · 7 retests
▪️ 7,476 — ★★★★ 8.1 Very Strong · 17 retests
SUPPORTs
▪️ 7,410 — ★★★★ 8.2 Very Strong · 28 retests
▪️ 7,358 — ★ 5.4 Weak · 10 retests
▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk — Overview of key S/R zones for ES, NVDA, NQ, GC & GBPUSD traders every week. Subscribe to stay up to date with the latest levels. Long 
ES H1 MAP: Very Strong 7,476 Floor vs 7,553 Ceiling▪️ ES H1 SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪️ the S&P 500 is balancing near 7,510, boxed between a well-defined floor and ceiling with no clear control. The market is rotating sideways as it waits for a catalyst.
▪️ Primary outlook is neutral — 7,476 is the line in the sand. The first clean break of the range sets the tone.
▪️ Key resistance zone: 7,553, defended 7 times. Beyond it, 7,631 is the next hurdle.
▪️ Range floor: 7,476 — a very strong level at 15 retests. Lose it and the balance breaks lower.
▪️ Primary downside targets on a break: 7,410 first, with 7,358 below it, where liquidity pools.
▪️ Major liquidity magnet below: 7,410–7,358 — the zone that would pull price if the floor cracks.
▪️ Bullish scenario: If buyers reclaim and hold above 7,553, the path opens toward 7,631 as the primary upside objective.
▪️ KEY LEVELS
▪️ Current Price: 7,510
RESISTANCEs
▪️ 7,631 — ★★★★ 8.0 Very Strong · 8 retests
▪️ 7,553 — ★★★★ 8.1 Very Strong · 7 retests
SUPPORTs
▪️ 7,476 — ★★★★ 8.7 Very Strong · 15 retests
▪️ 7,410 — ★ 5.0 Weak · 27 retests
▪️ 7,358 — ★ 5.8 Weak · 10 retests
▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk — Overview of key S/R zones for ES, NVDA, NQ, GC & GBPUSD traders every week. Subscribe to stay up to date with the latest levels. Long 
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 29 of 2026 (20-24 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
UA CAPITAL RECAP 19.07 | WEEK 13–17 JUL
The execution throughout the week closely followed our published trading plans.
Monday and Tuesday, both SPY and QQQ Long Scenario 1 trades from the Weekly Market Outlook reached profitable outcomes.
Wednesday's updated Tactical Playbook generated new long opportunities in both SPY and QQQ, with both trades closing profitably.
No new trades were taken on Thursday.
Friday's Tactical Playbook successfully identified short opportunities in both SPY and QQQ. Both positions generated multiple partial profit targets and continue to hold small runner positions into next week.
Ahead of Tuesday's CPI release, we also opened VIX hedge positions on Monday afternoon and closed them Tuesday morning for approximately a 36% gain.
In total, seven options trades were executed throughout the week, and all seven finished as winners.
It was an exceptional week from both an execution and risk management perspective, resulting in a 100% winning record across every completed options trade.
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
Equities Play
Throughout the week we also continued building medium-term spot positions in selected companies through the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk.
To maintain disciplined risk management, new purchases were limited to only one-quarter of our available buying power, bringing our total deployed capital to approximately 50% of our intended allocation.
Our plan remains unchanged. We intend to continue gradually building these medium-term positions from attractive technical levels with an investment horizon extending into November and December 2026.
The specific names remain exclusive to the private Trading Desk, although our primary focus continues to be concentrated in the technology and semiconductor sectors.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short-term and long-term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index is currently signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the broader short to medium-term environment continues to price in the possibility of another meaningful downside flush.
The long-term model remains firmly risk on, while the medium-term outlook continues to lean slightly bearish.
This combination typically creates elevated volatility, with both bulls and bears competing aggressively for control before a larger directional move eventually develops.
Given the potential for rapid acceleration in either direction and increasingly violent reversals, our focus this week will remain on aggressive profit-taking and disciplined risk management.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (742) This is the first major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 739.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (732)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 729.
Long Scenario 3
KEY Level 3 (724) This is the third major demand zone. If price reclaims this level with a confirmed 1-hour bullish candle close, long exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a bullish 1-hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 advance.
Invalidation: Daily candle close below 721.
Short Scenario
Main Supply (752) This area represents the primary supply zone and the upper boundary of the current trading range. A confirmed rejection from this level could provide a tactical short opportunity.
Trigger: Retest of the zone followed by a 1-hour bearish rejection candle.
Targets: Take partial profits after every $1 decline.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close above 757.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: 1-hour candle close above/below the designated level.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the trade into a risk-free position.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Every scenario has its own invalidation level. Read them carefully before entering a trade.
6. All charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). ETH candles may produce inaccurate confirmation signals.
Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, Tactical SPY/SPX - QQQ outlooks, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid-week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
ES H1: Hold 7,478 or Fall to 7,410?▪️ ES H1 SNAPSHOT — EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
▪️ the S&P 500 is basing near 7,492, leaning on a shelf that buyers have repeatedly defended. Structure is coiling, with a firm floor beneath price and a stack of supply overhead.
▪️ Primary outlook remains sideways trading — 7,478 is the line in the sand. Defended, it keeps the recovery intact; if broken, it hands the initiative back to sellers.
▪️ Key resistance zone: 7,537, tagged 35 times and likely to cap the first attempt. Clear it and 7,574 comes into play, with 7,631 beyond.
▪️ Major defense line: 7,478 — a strong level at 14 retests. As long as it caps the downside, dips are for buying, not chasing.
▪️ Primary downside targets if it cracks: 7,410, followed by 7,358, where resting liquidity sits.
▪️ Major liquidity magnet below: 7,410–7,358 — a test here tends to draw a sharp reaction.
▪️ Bullish scenario: Reclaim 7,537 and the balance shifts higher toward 7,574, with 7,631 beyond.
▪️ KEY LEVELS
▪️ Current Price: 7,492
RESISTANCEs
▪️ 7,631 — ★★★★ 8.5 Very Strong · 8 retests
▪️ 7,574 — ★★★★ 8.0 Very Strong · 30 retests
▪️ 7,537 — ★★ 6.9 Moderate · 35 retests
SUPPORTs
▪️ 7,478 — ★★★ 7.7 Strong · 14 retests
▪️ 7,410 — ★ 5.4 Weak · 27 retests
▪️ 7,358 — ★★ 6.2 Moderate · 10 retests
▪️ ProjectSyndicate Levels Desk — Overview of key S/R zones for ES, NVDA, NQ, GC & GBPUSD traders every week. Subscribe to stay up to date with the latest levels. Short 
SPY / SPX Weekly Outlook – Week 28 of 2026 (13-17 JUL)SPY / SPX WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
Last Week's Recap
We took two SPY trades last week.
The first trade came from Tuesday's Tactical Playbook after price broke out of the Chop Zone and delivered a clean long setup.
Later in the week, we attempted a tactical short from the 750–752 supply zone. The setup failed to follow through and was stopped out as planned.
2 trades | 1 win | 1 loss
(For reference, I have included last week's outlook on the right.)
UA CAPITAL RECAP 12.07 | WEEK 06–10 JUL
Week 27 of 2026 marked our first breakeven week after an incredible run of 13 consecutive deep green weeks. That winning streak, which had lasted since early April, officially came to an end. I want to mention this with complete transparency. While the deep green streak is over, we still have not recorded a single red week year to date. Hopefully a new winning streak begins soon and continues to compound over the coming months.
Markets experienced a healthy pullback during the first half of the week before finding support at lower levels. Part of that weakness was driven by renewed geopolitical uncertainty after President Trump announced that peace negotiations with Iran had been suspended and military operations would continue. Those headlines created enough uncertainty to trigger profit taking across the indices.
On Tuesday, the levels published in the Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook once again worked with remarkable precision. SPY bounced almost exactly from our predefined area before rallying toward 750. During that move, we established long exposure through ES futures and captured a solid profit.
On Wednesday, SPY tested the 740.5 level almost perfectly before closing back above it. That confirmation allowed us to re enter on the long side around 741.5. We scaled out at both 745 and 747 during Wednesday and Thursday, following the plan exactly as published.
Thursday brought a different opportunity. In the Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook published that morning, I outlined a new tactical strategy for Thursday and Friday. Based on that framework, we initiated short exposure in SPY around the 750–752 supply zone while simultaneously shorting several individual equities.
This trade did not develop as expected and was stopped out according to plan. Although the SPY short failed, the bullish continuation scenario published for QQQ unfolded almost perfectly. In hindsight, the analysis itself was accurate, but our execution favored the weaker setup. Had we followed the QQQ long instead of the SPY short, the trade would have produced another profitable outcome. Sometimes the analysis is correct while execution becomes the deciding factor.
The Thursday report also highlighted the possibility of a breakout above 752. That breakout materialized on Friday exactly as anticipated.
Friday's rally was supported by renewed optimism surrounding geopolitical developments as headlines suggested that peace negotiations could resume. Despite the breakout, the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk decided not to participate because the move developed late on Friday afternoon, when option pinning and positioning distortions become much more likely. We preferred to finish the week flat rather than force a late entry.
Overall, the week reflected disciplined execution. Tuesday's Tactical Playbook generated profitable futures trades, while Wednesday and Thursday's long positions produced additional gains. Those profits were offset by Thursday's unsuccessful short positions across both the indices and several equities. By staying disciplined with our risk management, the week finished essentially flat.
Although our 13 week deep green streak came to an end, our year to date record remains free of any losing weeks. That consistency is not simply the result of good market analysis. It is the product of disciplined risk management and strict position sizing.
Equities Play
This week we also began building several medium term spot positions together with the UA CAPITAL Trading Desk.
To maintain flexibility, total exposure was intentionally limited to approximately one quarter of our available buying power.
Over the coming weeks, we plan to continue accumulating positions at predefined technical levels with the intention of holding them into the November–December 2026 timeframe.
The individual names are shared exclusively inside the private Trading Desk, so I will not disclose them publicly. However, the portfolio remains concentrated primarily in technology and semiconductor companies.
This Week's Scenarios / Prediction
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index algorithm is currently signaling a short term neutral to slightly bullish environment. Additional upside remains possible over the near term, although the market continues to trade within a broader choppy structure.
The long term algorithm continues to signal a risk on environment, while the medium term outlook still leans slightly bearish.
When these conditions occur simultaneously, volatility typically increases as both buyers and sellers compete for control. Eventually, this type of environment often resolves through either a meaningful correction or a decisive breakout that establishes the next directional trend.
Our approach this week remains straightforward. We will continue looking for confirmed long opportunities from predefined Key Levels. At this stage, I believe short positions carry a less attractive risk to reward profile. Should that view change, I will communicate it through the daily Tactical Playbooks.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (751.5)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the zone.
Targets:754.5 → 758 → 760
Invalidation: Daily close below 748.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (747)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone.
Targets: 750 → 751.5 → 754.5
Invalidation: Daily close below 745.
Long Scenario 3
KEY Level 3 (740.5) This is the third major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone.
Targets: 742.5 → 745 → 747
Invalidation: Daily close below 739
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: Aggressive: 1 hour candle close above/below the designated level. Conservative: Daily candle close above/below the designated level.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the position into a risk free trade.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Daily candle close below the designated bounce zone equals stop loss.
Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
Daily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook - 17 JULDaily SPY/SPX Tactical Playbook
Market Technical Look
Markets are once again under pressure, led by weakness across high beta technology names following the sharp selloff in the KOSPI, which dropped more than 6%.
At the same time, Japan's 10-Year Government Bond yield has reached record highs while U.S. 10-Year Treasury yields continue to trend higher, creating a challenging macro backdrop for risk assets.
The combination of tightening global liquidity and a strengthening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to pressure equities and supports the current corrective phase.
From a structural perspective, the long and medium term trend remains risk on. However, the short term macro environment has clearly shifted toward risk off.
As a result, sharp downside moves and elevated volatility should be considered part of the expected market environment.
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index continues to signal a risk on environment over the long and medium term.
However, the short term model remains firmly risk off.
This combination often produces highly volatile price action, including sharp selloffs followed by aggressive V shaped recoveries.
SPY Daily Strategy / Outlook
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (748) This is the primary swing support area. If price reclaims the level with a confirmed one-hour bullish candle close, long positions can be considered.
Trigger: Price must test the level and produce a 1-hour bullish candle close back above 748.
Targets: Take partial profits for every $1 move higher.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close below 746.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (740) This is the next major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, call options can be used to establish long exposure.
Trigger: Price must reach the level and produce a bullish daily close back above the zone.
Targets: Take partial profits for every $1 move higher.
Invalidation: 4-hour candle close below 738.
Short Scenario
KEY Level 1 (746) If price retests this level from below and confirms rejection with a strong one-hour bearish candle close, short exposure can be considered.
Trigger: Price must reject 746 and produce a strong 1-hour bearish candle close below the level.
Targets: Take partial profits for every $1 move lower.
Invalidation: 1-hour candle close above 754.
Position Management Rules
1. Entry model: One-hour candle close above/below the designated level.
2. Take profits in stages because market reversals can happen quickly.
3. After the first profit target is reached, move all remaining stop losses to breakeven and convert the trade into a risk free position.
4. A reaction from the level must be confirmed. We do not predict price. We react to price.
5. Each scenario has its own invalidation level. Read them carefully before entering a position.
6. All charts use RTH (Regular Trading Hours). Using ETH may produce inaccurate candle confirmations.
Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice. Daily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook - 15 JULDaily SPY/SPX | QQQ/NDX Tactical Playbook
Market Sentiment
Following yesterday’s softer than expected CPI and PPI reports, the probability of a rate hike at the July FOMC meeting has fallen to roughly 10%, providing a meaningful tailwind for equities.
In addition to the encouraging inflation data, the KOSPI Index rallied nearly 6%, suggesting that immediate concerns surrounding a potential global liquidity crisis have eased for now.
That said, several structural macro risks remain unresolved. Treasury yields, particularly the US 10-Year and Japanese 10-Year government bond yields, continue to trade near historically elevated levels. These remain important risk factors that could quickly shift market sentiment if conditions deteriorate.
While the short term backdrop has improved, downside risks should not be ignored.
Risk Index
This oscillator reads macro conditions and converts them into a technical risk framework. It was developed internally at UA CAPITAL and remains the primary indicator I use for both short term and long term positioning decisions.
The Risk Index shifted back to slightly bullish following the CPI and PPI releases.
The long term outlook remains firmly Risk On, while the short term outlook has improved enough to support a potential move toward new all time highs.
However, the signal remains relatively weak. Although bullish momentum has strengthened, downside volatility remains a realistic possibility should market conditions deteriorate or new macro catalysts emerge.
Scenarios / Strategies
Long Scenario 1
KEY Level 1 (752.5)
This is the first major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, it may provide an opportunity to establish long exposure using call options.
Trigger: Price must test 752.5 and produce a bullish 1 hour candle close back above the level.
Targets:754.5 → 758 → 760
Invalidation:4 hour candle close below 751.5.
Long Scenario 2
KEY Level 2 (748.25)
This is the second major demand zone. If price reaches this level and confirms support, it may provide another opportunity to establish long exposure using call options.
Trigger: Price must test 748.25 and produce a bullish daily candle close back above the level.
Targets: 750 → 751.5 → 754.5
Invalidation: Daily close below 747.
Breakout Scenario
Swing Area (755)
If price breaks decisively above 755 and produces a strong 1 hour bullish candle close, a breakout continuation trade can be considered after a successful retest of the breakout level.
Trigger: A strong 1 hour bullish candle close above 755, followed by a successful retest.
Targets: 756 → 758 → 760
Invalidation: 1 hour candle close below 754.
Position Management Rules
1-Entry Model: Use an aggressive entry only after a confirmed 1 hour candle close above or below the designated trigger level.
2-Scale Out Gradually: Take profits in stages, as market reversals can happen quickly, especially in volatile conditions.
3-Protect Capital: Once the first target is reached, move the remaining position’s stop loss to break even, converting the trade into a risk free position.
4-React, Don’t Predict: Every setup requires confirmation. We do not anticipate price movements we react to confirmed price action.
5-Read Every Scenario Carefully: Each scenario has its own unique trigger and invalidation level. Make sure you follow the rules specific to the setup you’re trading.
Notice: Starting a fresh, fully transparent track record for SPY, QQQ, and core equities here on TradingView. Going forward, all daily market updates, institutional research, weekly outlooks, and mid week market updates will be documented and tracked consistently.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects my personal opinion. It is not financial advice.
