Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024
Trading Plan for Wednesday, April 17th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major)
Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5097 (major), 5108 (major), 5115, 5126-29 (major), 5155 (major)
Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5188-90 (major), 5225-30 (major), 5280-83 (major)
Trading Strategy
Monitoring Fed Commentary: Stay updated on further statements from Federal Reserve officials as they will influence market direction.
Range-Bound Trading: The 5082-5115 zone remains a choppy range. Focus on failed breakdowns within this zone, or holding position runners.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5091 (after multiple successful tests), reclaims of 5082, or failed breakdowns at 5076. Knife-catch protocol applies for any deeper longs, particularly at 5046-51.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts if backtesting breakdown zones like 5126-29, 5155, or 5171. Prioritize a failure of 5082 on the short side.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5126-29, then 5171 to signal a potential short-term bottom.
Holding Support: A sustained hold of 5082 could lead to a bounce and backtests of the resistances listed above.
Adding on Strength: Breaks above 5108 after acceptance suggest potential for more upside.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain short-term control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5082 is a warning, with shorts below 5068 targeting 5046-51 (where runners would likely be exited). As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first.
News: Top Stories for April 17th, 2024
Federal Reserve Focus
Jerome Powell's comments emphasize that inflation remains above the Fed's target, hinting at a delay in interest rate cuts.
Investor expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted, with a maximum of three cuts now anticipated, starting in June at the earliest.
Market Performance & Sectors
S&P 500 hits new all-time highs but experiences volatility following Federal Reserve commentary.
Technology stocks, especially those in the AI sector, continue to outperform.
Communication services and energy sectors receive a high percentage of analyst buy ratings.
Earnings & Corporate News
Big banks kick off the earnings season, providing insights into the financial sector's health.
United Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays and adjusts its strategy.
International Economic & Monetary Policies
President Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese steel aim to protect domestic industry.
ECB plans for near-term rate cuts raise questions about the European economic outlook.
Additional Market Updates
Cryptocurrency market dynamics, including Bitcoin halving cycles.
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and their potential economic implications.
Chinese economic growth.
Housing market trends and government tax policies in Canada.
Reminder: The market is reacting to Federal Reserve commentary. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, as investors digest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and assess their implications on the timing of potential rate cuts.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5091, 5082 (major), 5076, 5068 (major)
Major Supports: 5046-51 (major), 5038 (major), 4996-5000 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5097 (major), 5108 (major), 5115, 5126-29 (major), 5155 (major)
Major Resistances: 5171 (major), 5188-90 (major), 5225-30 (major), 5280-83 (major)
Trading Strategy
Monitoring Fed Commentary: Stay updated on further statements from Federal Reserve officials as they will influence market direction.
Range-Bound Trading: The 5082-5115 zone remains a choppy range. Focus on failed breakdowns within this zone, or holding position runners.
Long Opportunities: Look for bids at 5091 (after multiple successful tests), reclaims of 5082, or failed breakdowns at 5076. Knife-catch protocol applies for any deeper longs, particularly at 5046-51.
Short Opportunities: Consider shorts if backtesting breakdown zones like 5126-29, 5155, or 5171. Prioritize a failure of 5082 on the short side.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5126-29, then 5171 to signal a potential short-term bottom.
Holding Support: A sustained hold of 5082 could lead to a bounce and backtests of the resistances listed above.
Adding on Strength: Breaks above 5108 after acceptance suggest potential for more upside.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain short-term control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5082 is a warning, with shorts below 5068 targeting 5046-51 (where runners would likely be exited). As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first.
News: Top Stories for April 17th, 2024
Federal Reserve Focus
Jerome Powell's comments emphasize that inflation remains above the Fed's target, hinting at a delay in interest rate cuts.
Investor expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted, with a maximum of three cuts now anticipated, starting in June at the earliest.
Market Performance & Sectors
S&P 500 hits new all-time highs but experiences volatility following Federal Reserve commentary.
Technology stocks, especially those in the AI sector, continue to outperform.
Communication services and energy sectors receive a high percentage of analyst buy ratings.
Earnings & Corporate News
Big banks kick off the earnings season, providing insights into the financial sector's health.
United Airlines faces aircraft delivery delays and adjusts its strategy.
International Economic & Monetary Policies
President Biden's proposed tariffs on Chinese steel aim to protect domestic industry.
ECB plans for near-term rate cuts raise questions about the European economic outlook.
Additional Market Updates
Cryptocurrency market dynamics, including Bitcoin halving cycles.
Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran and their potential economic implications.
Chinese economic growth.
Housing market trends and government tax policies in Canada.
Reminder: The market is reacting to Federal Reserve commentary. Prioritize risk management and adapt your trading strategy accordingly.
