Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024
Trading Plan for Tuesday, April 16th, 2024
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079
Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39 (major), 5163-67 (major).
Major Resistances: 5178-80 (major), 5195, 5205-07 (major), 5222 (major)
Trading Strategy
Geopolitical Risk: Continue to monitor headlines related to the Iran/Israel situation for potential market impacts.
Adaptability: Be prepared for rapid changes in market direction and prioritize risk management.
Long Opportunities: Focus on potential longs above 5102-05 after failed breakdowns at 5092. Consider a test and reclaim of 5115 for an entry if the move is direct. Knife-catch protocol applies for longs at 5048-52 if those are reached.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of breakdown levels. 5136-39 and 5163-67 are key areas for potential shorts.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5136, then 5163-67 to set a potential bottom.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5092 triggers the next downside leg. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting at 5088, targeting 5052 for complete profit-taking, or level-to-level profit-takes on the way.
News: Top Stories for April 16th, 2024
Geopolitical Crisis: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel continue to dominate headlines and drive market uncertainty.
Economic Outlook
IMF World Economic Outlook: Projections for slower global growth with inflation expected to decrease.
US Labor Market: Focus on the impact of an aging workforce and the potential counter to early retirement trends.
Inflation & Fed Rates
CPI report signals persistent inflation, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts.
Treasury yields react to inflation data.
Corporate & Market News
Tesla faces skepticism about self-driving capabilities and a new round of layoffs.
Market performance analysis: Tech stocks lead gains, bond market reacts to rate concerns.
Real estate market sends mixed signals across different geographies.
Investment Outlooks
Financial institutions provide a range of outlook reports with varying predictions.
Cryptocurrency: Ether and Bitcoin ETFs perform well, prominent investors weigh in.
Reminder: The geopolitical situation remains a major wildcard. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to adjust your trading strategy quickly.
Market Sentiment: Uncertain, with geopolitical headlines and market volatility remaining dominant factors.
Key Supports
Immediate Supports: 5102-05 (major), 5092 (major), 5079
Major Supports: 5067 (major), 5050-52 (major), 5039 (major), 5000 (major)
Key Resistances
Near-term Resistance: 5115, 5126 (major), 5136-39 (major), 5163-67 (major).
Major Resistances: 5178-80 (major), 5195, 5205-07 (major), 5222 (major)
Trading Strategy
Geopolitical Risk: Continue to monitor headlines related to the Iran/Israel situation for potential market impacts.
Adaptability: Be prepared for rapid changes in market direction and prioritize risk management.
Long Opportunities: Focus on potential longs above 5102-05 after failed breakdowns at 5092. Consider a test and reclaim of 5115 for an entry if the move is direct. Knife-catch protocol applies for longs at 5048-52 if those are reached.
Short Opportunities: Look for backtests of breakdown levels. 5136-39 and 5163-67 are key areas for potential shorts.
Profit-Taking: On shorts, consider taking profits entirely at major levels, especially given ES's tendency to short squeeze.
Bull Case
Reclaims are Key: Bulls need to reclaim breakdown zones, starting with 5136, then 5163-67 to set a potential bottom.
Bear Case
Breakdown Signals: Bears maintain control until bulls can reclaim key levels discussed above. A failure of 5092 triggers the next downside leg. As always, be wary of traps – look for a bounce/failed breakdown first, then consider shorting at 5088, targeting 5052 for complete profit-taking, or level-to-level profit-takes on the way.
News: Top Stories for April 16th, 2024
Geopolitical Crisis: The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel continue to dominate headlines and drive market uncertainty.
Economic Outlook
IMF World Economic Outlook: Projections for slower global growth with inflation expected to decrease.
US Labor Market: Focus on the impact of an aging workforce and the potential counter to early retirement trends.
Inflation & Fed Rates
CPI report signals persistent inflation, raising concerns about delayed Fed rate cuts.
Treasury yields react to inflation data.
Corporate & Market News
Tesla faces skepticism about self-driving capabilities and a new round of layoffs.
Market performance analysis: Tech stocks lead gains, bond market reacts to rate concerns.
Real estate market sends mixed signals across different geographies.
Investment Outlooks
Financial institutions provide a range of outlook reports with varying predictions.
Cryptocurrency: Ether and Bitcoin ETFs perform well, prominent investors weigh in.
Reminder: The geopolitical situation remains a major wildcard. Be cautious, prioritize risk management, and be prepared to adjust your trading strategy quickly.
