#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 4.28 - 5.03
Last Week :
Last week Globex opened inside the Value of 5086 - 4925 Range and right away found buying that started pushing us towards VAH. RTH gave us a push out of Value and holds above brought in more buyers to give us pushes to the Edge and attempts at Previous Ranges VAL/Value area but that move was sold back down towards the Edge and back under 5086 brought in the weakness needed to make a push back inside lower range towards VAH which looked promising for continuation since we were under Supply and under Settlement ranges but instead we failed to accept in Value pushed back to the Edge and end of day Spike pushed us over VAL where we spent Friday filling out that area of singles over VAL in a tighter distribution Range after failing to get back under 5112.05 - 07.50.
This Week :
Going into this week we have retail month end to finish up the month, we have new month starting and lots of data dropping this week as well. Our question this week is will we find acceptance back in this 5227 - 5066 Ranges Value ? are there actually bigger buyers in that Spike base to keep us up and start balancing here and continue filling out this VAL / Mean / VAH area ? Area over 5144 still has Single Prints above which are Supply and Volume trapped above them. Or maybe more selling will come in to give moves back under VAL to fill out that Spike Base to see if there are still buyers in that Edge or if we will start working our way under it towards the Value where we were able to transact through the whole thing and put in Time and Volume ?
Friday we tried to make a push over 5144 - 40.25 which was 5159 - 5107 Intrarange Resistance but failed the few attempts and stayed withing the ranges Mean of 5144 - 5125.
If we are to accept in this range and 5112.50 - 07.50 will keep acting as support then we can look to keep trading this current Intraday range of 5159 - 5107 and IF we continue holding over 5129 - 25 we could eventually get enough buying to try and fill out those single prints up to the Key Resistance. We would need to get through 5159.25 - 54.25 to see any higher prices with moves towards above VAH.
If the buying here is not strong and we just continue building up Supply around this current mean and can't fill the single prints up to the Key Resistance above or fill but fail to accept over then we can look for a return back towards the VAL and see a test of that 5112.50 - 07.50 area, if buying at that Spike base doesn't hold then we can see a move back towards the Edge to fill that Spike Base out and test the Edge again to see if there is still buying or if we will get back under the Edge and head for Previous Value.
With lots of news and data it could be a tricky week, Friday ended very slow after volatile action, will the slow theme continue this week ? If so need to be very patient letting things properly set up and show Failures or strength at levels before trying to catch the moves. Market is trying to find a range to start balancing in, I feel like 5086 - 4925 is the HTF Range market wants to be in and our destination is still lower but how fast or slow it will get moving there is the question and for now we are over the Edge which is telling us otherwise while we are inside 5182 - 15 Value... but just something to keep in mind if we don't find acceptance needed in here.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5159.25 - 5107.50
Key Levels for Continuation out 5159.25 - 54.25 // 5112.50 - 07.50
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
If Accept Below Targets Spike Base and move back to Edge
Means 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75
Key Area 5065.75 - 60.75
If holds current range and accepts over Key Resistance, above range is 5204.25 - 5154.25
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
IF Find ourself back under 5086 - 66 Edge watch out for continuation towards VAH / Mean and VAL of 5086 - 4925 Range.
Last week Globex opened inside the Value of 5086 - 4925 Range and right away found buying that started pushing us towards VAH. RTH gave us a push out of Value and holds above brought in more buyers to give us pushes to the Edge and attempts at Previous Ranges VAL/Value area but that move was sold back down towards the Edge and back under 5086 brought in the weakness needed to make a push back inside lower range towards VAH which looked promising for continuation since we were under Supply and under Settlement ranges but instead we failed to accept in Value pushed back to the Edge and end of day Spike pushed us over VAL where we spent Friday filling out that area of singles over VAL in a tighter distribution Range after failing to get back under 5112.05 - 07.50.
This Week :
Going into this week we have retail month end to finish up the month, we have new month starting and lots of data dropping this week as well. Our question this week is will we find acceptance back in this 5227 - 5066 Ranges Value ? are there actually bigger buyers in that Spike base to keep us up and start balancing here and continue filling out this VAL / Mean / VAH area ? Area over 5144 still has Single Prints above which are Supply and Volume trapped above them. Or maybe more selling will come in to give moves back under VAL to fill out that Spike Base to see if there are still buyers in that Edge or if we will start working our way under it towards the Value where we were able to transact through the whole thing and put in Time and Volume ?
Friday we tried to make a push over 5144 - 40.25 which was 5159 - 5107 Intrarange Resistance but failed the few attempts and stayed withing the ranges Mean of 5144 - 5125.
If we are to accept in this range and 5112.50 - 07.50 will keep acting as support then we can look to keep trading this current Intraday range of 5159 - 5107 and IF we continue holding over 5129 - 25 we could eventually get enough buying to try and fill out those single prints up to the Key Resistance. We would need to get through 5159.25 - 54.25 to see any higher prices with moves towards above VAH.
If the buying here is not strong and we just continue building up Supply around this current mean and can't fill the single prints up to the Key Resistance above or fill but fail to accept over then we can look for a return back towards the VAL and see a test of that 5112.50 - 07.50 area, if buying at that Spike base doesn't hold then we can see a move back towards the Edge to fill that Spike Base out and test the Edge again to see if there is still buying or if we will get back under the Edge and head for Previous Value.
With lots of news and data it could be a tricky week, Friday ended very slow after volatile action, will the slow theme continue this week ? If so need to be very patient letting things properly set up and show Failures or strength at levels before trying to catch the moves. Market is trying to find a range to start balancing in, I feel like 5086 - 4925 is the HTF Range market wants to be in and our destination is still lower but how fast or slow it will get moving there is the question and for now we are over the Edge which is telling us otherwise while we are inside 5182 - 15 Value... but just something to keep in mind if we don't find acceptance needed in here.
Levels to Watch :
Current Range 5159.25 - 5107.50
Key Levels for Continuation out 5159.25 - 54.25 // 5112.50 - 07.50
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
If Accept Below Targets Spike Base and move back to Edge
Means 5095.50 - 92.50 // 5081 - 77.75
Key Area 5065.75 - 60.75
If holds current range and accepts over Key Resistance, above range is 5204.25 - 5154.25
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
IF Find ourself back under 5086 - 66 Edge watch out for continuation towards VAH / Mean and VAL of 5086 - 4925 Range.
Comment:
Yesterday Globex was able to tag lower VAH but failed to accept under 5041 and started holding over. We had an idea that VAH and Value under is the place where stronger buying could be that could still keep us up without continuation. RTH opened and we started balancing between Key Resistance of 5065.75 - 60.75 and Mean area of 5048.75 - 45.75, we tried multiple pushes for VAH but were not able to get in or tag it. Once 2PM Fed hit things got crazy and over 5066.50 we made a big push for previous VAL/Value but this was the place of Sellers and the Supply we trapped on Tuesday flush so price could not hold there and gave another crazy move back down through the Edge, wild action but when big orders come in the price will move.
So far if we remember last weeks Weekly Prep, 5086 was noted as an area where Price will want to stay under as we are finding acceptance in this 5086 - 4925 HTF Range but still putting up a fight, every push back over 5086 has been sold back down into it so far.
Going into today/tomorrow we are now back inside the Edge and inside this 5112.50 - 5060.75 Intraday Range, question is can we stay inside it and balance which we know price doesn't like to stay inside the Edge too long but of course we never know so few options here. We could stay inside this range and balance around this Edge area with 5065.75 - 60.75 being our Key Support, 5081 - 77.75 being a mean price would want to come back towards and for now 5086 - 92.50 - 95.50 being our Intrarange Resistance for higher prices and of course 5112.50 - 07.50 Key Resistance for anything higher. Or if we run out of buyers here and new buyers wont be getting upside over 5086 - 95.50 we could see them sell out to start a trip back towards Key Support and if that doesn't hold then we can see a move back into 5065.75 - 13.75 Range and try to make a push for VAH/Value of that lower range again for 5048.75 - 45.75 - 41.50 // 34 - 31 and maybe look under ? If we have the juice for that.
So far if we remember last weeks Weekly Prep, 5086 was noted as an area where Price will want to stay under as we are finding acceptance in this 5086 - 4925 HTF Range but still putting up a fight, every push back over 5086 has been sold back down into it so far.
Going into today/tomorrow we are now back inside the Edge and inside this 5112.50 - 5060.75 Intraday Range, question is can we stay inside it and balance which we know price doesn't like to stay inside the Edge too long but of course we never know so few options here. We could stay inside this range and balance around this Edge area with 5065.75 - 60.75 being our Key Support, 5081 - 77.75 being a mean price would want to come back towards and for now 5086 - 92.50 - 95.50 being our Intrarange Resistance for higher prices and of course 5112.50 - 07.50 Key Resistance for anything higher. Or if we run out of buyers here and new buyers wont be getting upside over 5086 - 95.50 we could see them sell out to start a trip back towards Key Support and if that doesn't hold then we can see a move back into 5065.75 - 13.75 Range and try to make a push for VAH/Value of that lower range again for 5048.75 - 45.75 - 41.50 // 34 - 31 and maybe look under ? If we have the juice for that.
Comment:
One thing to note is on Daily and Weekly we are at bottoms of Balance ranges going through market change, we have supply but its not hitting so hard to scare off the buyers when we drop lower so this could take time to resolve, we have Supply above and covering under if we don't get the volume then we would need to continue building up to be ready to move again which would mean not easy trading with smaller rotations and time for moves to set up.
Key Levels 5065.75 - 60.75 // 5019 - 13.75
Means 5048.75 - 45.75 // 5034 - 31
IF We find acceptance in this range under the Edge or pull back into previous range inside the Edge but wont be able to hold then we can still see continuation for lower VAH and a push for that Value where we have found acceptance in before. Are we ready for that yet or not is our next question but we just keep trading it Range to Range and Level to Level.
IF we do get strong volume to push us into Value and we find acceptance under 5019 - 13.75 We would have to get through the Mean for a push towards VAL, we still could have enough short covering and buying at VAH and Mean areas to hold us up without bigger continuation but just in case lower levels are
Means 5001.75 - 4997.75 // 4988.25 - 84.25
Key 4972 - 67 Which also lines up with VAL.