One of the many reasons I don't pay attention to the content of economic news is market reaction rarely lines up the news. It matches the traders sentiment obviously...but many times the news says one thing and prices say another. Yesterday the market spiked up initially on what most would consider a better than expected CPI report and then spent the vast...
Like most Fed days it is not my expectation for price to make any large moves until the afternoon. With yesterday's roller coaster ride in the futures, nothing really changed. Below is the intraday SPX chart. Despite all the fireworks in futures, the cash index remained contained. My assessment of the cash index is unless we can make a new high today...this...
This is the best I can come up with today. i didnt do much research today. Want to see a lower low in am and bounce after the Interest rate decision, then the whole move will be faded after Powell starts talking. Short around 2am, buy am low for the interest rate decision and sell that rip (if we get one) right before Powell starts talking. Thats my plan for...
The reflation trade in the US stock market (Wave-5) is about to explode above the GREEN resistance line. Far too many people continue to believe the US markets will collapse on some Fed/Economic crisis event. What they don't understand is the US is in a different position right now. Yes, deflation trends may continue for REAL ASSETS (homes, cars, commodities,...
I'll spend a total of a couple sentences surmising my trading day which ended at about 845 am EST and then I slept all day. I will not go into the details of what happened...you can read my previous posts for that. But today could best be described as DUMB on my part. Sure in retrospect had it gone the other way I wouldn't describe it as that...but even if it...
This big rotation to the upside, after the CPI number, presents a new $4018 support level on the ES for traders. The Fed rate decision tomorrow may send markets briefly below this level, but watch for a reflation trade to setup after the Fed comments. If my research is correct, a melt-up trend has already been established. I expect the US Dollar to melt back...
Im not an expert in EWT but this is what I see in case its going to make a new low. Im going to buy that area for a bounce
This is a speculative trade. I'll add to it into 4068 and if wrong stop out just over the .768. The manner in which this pattern started off in my opinion can only be corrective. Therefore I'm restriking my short. Suffice to say, If I'm right, the entry opportunities will be few and far between. If price only comes into the area where I'm counting a micro wave...
If Dec 2021 had been the a Major (iii), then a complex corrective Wave 4 is possible which could span months or years. Taking one step at a time. I believe we had hit a strong support and a completed Wave C. The current move off support zone had been rather steady. Price is testing down trend line for the 3rd time. With an impulsive Wave (3) heading into the...
Are you ready for the CPI? Forecast 7.3% - If it comes lower, it's good result you may get SPX climb higher. However think about how low it comes in or does it come in line or do we get opposite and comes out higher or in-line. Don't forget we have CPI today but we have FOMC tomorrow. I am going to be trading the two events separate taking my CPI trades off...
So last night was our company Xmas celebration. I got home at 11pm...for reasons unknown to me...I can't sleep. My insomnia has me into charts and now I must warn you...I'm drinking coffee...lol. But the reason for this special update is this contract roll over, and the various charts. I am getting different signals from the SPX cash chart, the Futures...
With the advance into the 4030 area price has now retraced to just below the .618% of the decline from 4110 to 3914. We also have what appears to be a pretty clear head and shoulders topping pattern. I mentioned the other day about being weary of buying as we decline. The main reason for this warning is that old red count I do not feature on the intraday chart....
Looks like price may get to 4035. I'll try to update late update...I'm out of office. This is setting up to be a large reconciliation lower. I didn't want to leave anyone hanging so I posted this quick update. Best to all, Chris
I have a work related Christmas Event to attend tonight so I'm putting out my evening update early. As you can see we've come into the .618% retracement of our "a" wave for a "b" wave top. It is possible the .768% at 4006 gets tagged...but it is not my expectation for price to more beyond that. Once we have a confirmed top I expect a "c" wave down towards the...
Here are the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week. Expect more sideways melt-up trending as we head into the Fed rate decision and key economic data. Traders will start to shift into early 2023 expectations this week (after the Fed). Check out my other posts. The markets are not expecting anything extraordinary right now - more of the same. The Fed rate decision...
#ES 60 Min Zones for this week. Support: 3912 & 3960 Resistance: 4018, 4058, & 4101 Trigger Zone: 3990~3995 I expect a melt-up to continue as expectations for 2023 settle into the EOY trends - likely attempting to break resistance at 4058 & 4101. Follow my research.
In the overnights the futures bounced between slight losses to gains. As I posted in my weekend update the SPX cash index looks ready to at least make one more lower low. I can't tell if we'll get that today. Lastly "tis the season for tax related selling". As of this morning I'm 50/50 whether this is a minor wave 4 with OML coming, or the "b' wave, in which...
As my followers know , In my quest to close out my 2022 P&L I am looking to manufacture $50,000 in profits in the month of December. Last week allowed me to get to half that goal. If you're new to reading or following me, I do not share this information to brag. I do not claim to be some gifted trader with the best information or processes known to man. I...