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Fundamental Analysis

ES (SPX, SPY) Week Ahead Analysis - (Nov 24th - 28th)Executive Overview Equity markets, particularly the E-mini S&P 500 (ES), are currently navigating a broader weekly uptrend, yet have entered a phase of short-term correction after encountering resistance around the 6,900 to 7,000 level. Presently, prices hover near 6,660, finding support from a robust pocket in the mid-6,500s. Recent volatility indices have surged, with the VIX now in the low 20s and the term structure exhibiting a near flat or slight backwardation. Meanwhile, key credit metrics, funding conditions, and spread behaviors remain stable, suggesting that the current market dynamics are more indicative of equity valuation adjustments and positioning realignments rather than a sign of systemic distress. Looking ahead to the coming week, we anticipate a choppy trading environment characterized by two-sided price movements within a range of 6,520 to 6,780. Intraday strategies are likely to involve selling into strength around resistance levels R1 and R2, while seeking to capitalize on buying opportunities when prices approach support levels S1. Notably, the VIX is expected to remain elevated above its recent teens regime during this period. A critical point of focus will be the 6,520 to 6,540 support zone. Should this area fail to hold on a daily closing basis, we could see the correction extend toward the 6,420 to 6,450 range, with further downside potential targeting the low-6,300s. Multi-Timeframe Analysis of Market Structure Weekly Trend: Premium/Discount The current market structure remains characterized by higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The last significant upward movement peaked just shy of 7,000, while the ongoing pullback has managed to hold above the previous weekly higher low band, located in the high-5,000s to low-6,000s range. A notable supply zone exists from approximately 6,850 to just above 7,000, identified as a weak high. Below this, a robust demand/value area spans from around 5,850 (at the 1.272 Fibonacci retracement) down to approximately 5,575 (the 2.0 Fibonacci level) from the previous major leg. On this timeframe, the E-mini S&P (ES) is trading at a premium in relation to the substantial 5,800–5,900 weekly value area. However, we have transitioned from momentum-driven expansion to a mean-reverting correction phase. Daily Trend and Range Shifting to a daily perspective, the structure has inverted to a short-term downtrend, marked by a lower high established near 6,900, followed by a lower swing low around the 6,520s. Fibonacci retracement levels from the last sell-off align as follows: 1.272 at approximately 6,521, 1.618 at around 6,418, and 2.0 at approximately 6,304. The 6,520s zone is precisely where price action found support. For the upcoming week, the operative daily range can be defined between 6,520–6,540 as the lower band and 6,760–6,780 as the upper band, coinciding with the previous breakdown area and recent four-hour lower high. Four-Hour Structure Analyzing the four-hour chart reveals a clear downward impulse from the mid-6,700s lower high to lows in the mid-6,500s, followed by a sharp rebound. A Fibonacci sequence applied to this movement suggests retracement levels of 1.272 at approximately 6,527, 1.618 at around 6,455, and 2.0 at roughly 6,376. These levels coincide with a notable demand block around the 6,520–6,540 range, identified as a "strong low," with additional liquidity found in the 6,450s and 6,370s. The recent upward movement from these lows appears corrective within the broader impulse, indicating a potential lower high is forming under the 6,680–6,700 area. Until price reclaims and maintains this band, the four-hour swing remains in a down-to-sideways trend. Hourly Context From an hourly viewpoint, the ES experienced a decline from approximately 6,770 to the mid-6,500s, subsequently establishing a series of higher lows as it grinds upward. Recent hourly activity shows price pressing against an overhead resistance zone located around 6,660–6,670, just beneath the Asia Session high of 6,662.5 and the New York PM high / previous day high at 6,677.5. The volume-weighted average price (VWAP) is situated near 6,609.75, with prior intraday lows clustering between 6,594 and 6,611.75. Intraday, the ES is currently mid-range, confined between support levels at 6,640–6,642 (Asia Session Low) and resistance at 6,662.5–6,677.5 (Asia Session High / New York PM High / Previous Day High / Yearly Value Area High). Weekly and Daily Oscillators / Momentum The weekly oscillator has retracted from overbought conditions but remains elevated, signifying a cool-off within a strong uptrend. Conversely, the daily oscillator is currently oversold and beginning to reverse, showing readings in the mid-20s with the first uptick following a significant downturn. This pattern is classic for potential bounces; however, confirmation of a full trend reversal is yet to materialize. Key levels and zones Resistance (R-side) R1: 6,662–6,678 • Components: Asia Session High 6,662.5, NYPM High / PDH 6,677.5, Y-VAH also anchored at 6,677.5, plus a clear 1H/30m shelf. • Significance: This is the nearest control ceiling; it capped Friday’s rebound and marks the boundary between neutral intraday and more aggressive squeeze potential. • Role: First place to fade “pop-and-fail” wicks for short A++ plays, and the first area that must be decisively reclaimed for bulls to press a larger squeeze. R2: 6,760–6,780 • Components: Prior 4H lower high and breakdown zone; 1H HH before the large red impulse bar; sits just below a dense daily supply band. • Significance: A retest of broken support turned resistance. Acceptance back above here would suggest the entire recent flush was a failed breakdown, opening the path to retest the highs. R3: 6,895–6,945 • Components: 1H fib extensions 1.272 ≈ 6,895.75 and 1.618 ≈ 6,942.50, plus prior weekly weak high / supply band just under 7,000. • Significance: This is the larger-timeframe cap. Reaching this zone in one week would likely require either a decisively dovish Fed tone or very strong data. --- Support (S-side) S1: 6,520–6,540 • Components: Daily fib 1.272 ≈ 6,521.25, 4H fib 1.272 ≈ 6,527.25, recent swing low cluster and strong demand band. • Significance: This is the primary weekly pivot for the current correction. First major A++ long location if it’s flushed and reclaimed during liquid hours. S2: 6,418–6,455 • Components: Daily 1.618 ≈ 6,418, 4H 1.618 ≈ 6,455.50, plus a “strong low” label in that region. • Significance: This is deeper discount inside the current swing, where larger timeframe players would be expected to defend aggressively if the broader uptrend is to remain intact. S3: 6,304–6,376 • Components: Daily 2.0 ≈ 6,304.00, 4H 2.0 ≈ 6,376.25, lower edge of the current visible demand block. • Significance: If price reaches here this week, the market is in a full-fledged risk-off extension, but still within the context of the broader weekly uptrend. S4: 5,850–5,575 (weekly) • Components: Weekly fibs 1.272 ≈ 5,850.75, 1.618 ≈ 5,721.00, 2.0 ≈ 5,577.50. • Significance: True structural weekly demand; a tail-risk destination if macro or credit conditions were to deteriorate sharply. --- Volatility Backdrop The VIX spot closed at approximately 23.4 on Friday, having surged beyond 26 earlier in the week, marking the highest levels observed since spring. The VIX futures curve has shifted to a flat or mildly backwardated structure, with near-term contracts hovering around 22.9 for late November and extending into subsequent months. Meanwhile, rates volatility (MOVE) is situated near 78–79, close to its historical average, indicating it is not in crisis territory. The volatility complex is signaling a notable expectation of an equity shock, although it does not reflect panic in the funding or rates sectors. The flat to slightly backwardated volatility curve suggests potential for larger intraday swings and gap risks, while also presenting significant reward opportunities when market entries align with critical price levels. Options and Positioning The total put/call ratio currently stands at approximately 0.87, with the index put/call ratio around 1.03, and exchange-traded products (ETP) at about 1.28. In contrast, the equity-only put/call ratio is at a lower 0.56. The 10-day moving average of the total put/call ratio is approximately 0.90, which is not indicative of panic extremes. The SKEW index is around 148—elevated, yet falling short of the extreme levels (150–160+) that typically signal substantial tail-risk hedging. Institutional hedging remains present but lacks urgency; there is a distinct preference for put options in indices and ETFs, while single-stock options continue to skew toward calls. Coupled with a VIX in the low-20s and a near-flat curve, this indicates that dealers are likely moderately short gamma at current strike prices. Consequently, price movements beyond key levels may extend further than usual before reversion occurs. This inference, drawn from the volatility and put/call configurations, does not represent a direct measurement. Market Breadth and Internals Earlier in the week, the NYSE experienced a significant imbalance, with decliners outnumbering advancers by more than 3:1, alongside a higher count of new lows than new highs, a classic indicator of distribution. However, by Friday, the breadth reversed sharply, with approximately 2,237 advancers against 548 decliners on the NYSE. Nevertheless, the McClellan Oscillator remains negative (~-72), and the Summation Index is in a downward trajectory, suggesting ongoing repair rather than the emergence of a new bull trend. Defensive sectors, including health care and consumer staples, have outperformed, while tech and speculative AI stocks led the recent selloff. The market has transitioned from a clear uptrend to a choppy corrective phase characterized by distribution. The activity on Friday, while indicative of an oversold breadth thrust, has not confirmed a market bottom. Credit and Funding The high-yield ETF (HYG) is trading around 80.3, only slightly below recent highs, indicating no signs of disorderly selling. The US high-yield option-adjusted spread (OAS) is near 3.17%, and B-rated high-yield OAS is about 3.3%, both well below long-term averages (>5%) and only marginally above recent tight levels. Conclusion: Credit markets display relative calm, reinforcing the notion that the recent weakness in equities is driven by valuation and sentiment rather than a funding crunch. Sentiment and Crowd Positioning Recent AAII survey results indicate roughly 32.6% of respondents identify as bulls, while 23.9% classify as bears. This results in a negative bull-bear spread of about -11%, contrasted with a long-run average of +6%. The combination of an elevated VIX, a negative bull-bear spread, and moderate put/call ratios reflects a climate of pessimism without full-fledged capitulation. Practical Takeaway: There exists potential for an upward squeeze if macroeconomic headlines shift towards dovish sentiment. However, a prolonged risk-off environment remains possible if critical support levels like S1 and S2 break. Cross-Asset and Global Risk Tone Global equities experienced their most significant weekly pullback since early this year, with the MSCI World Index declining by roughly 3%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 recorded its largest weekly drop since summer, primarily driven by weakness in the tech sector and increased volatility. The cryptocurrency market is in a full risk-off stance, with Bitcoin dipping to a seven-month low before rebounding around $84k, accompanied by sentiment indicators reflecting extreme pessimism and heavy liquidations, now followed by a weekend bounce from oversold RSI levels. Relative Risk Tone: The Nasdaq-100 (NQ) remains weaker compared to the S&P 500 (ES), aligning with the decline in tech and AI sectors, while defensive and value-oriented sectors maintain resilience. Overall, the cross-asset narrative suggests a risk-off tone, yet not systemic in nature—exactly the backdrop where well-defined level trading is most effective. Macro and Data Calendar The upcoming holiday-shortened week is set to unveil a series of delayed U.S. economic data, including September retail sales, PPI, Core PPI, home prices, pending home sales, inventories, and consumer confidence on Tuesday, followed by jobless claims, durable goods, Chicago PMI, and the Beige Book on Wednesday. The prior government shutdown has postponed key GDP and inflation reports, heightening uncertainty around the Fed's December decisions. Federal Reserve officials exhibit divided opinions about another rate cut in December; some advocate for a pause with inflation near 3%, while others, including at least one governor and the NY Fed president, lean toward support for an additional 25 basis point reduction. Market odds for a December cut have shifted within a ~50–70% range, depending on daily fluctuations. Classification of the Recent Move: This market dynamic appears primarily as a reset in valuations and positioning following the exuberance surrounding AI and tech, exacerbated by data-related uncertainty rather than stemming from a definitive “data shock” event. 13. Two A++ setups (for the coming sessions) These are plan-level plays, to be executed only if price action and vol conditions line up as described. A++ Setup 1: R1 Rejection Short Trigger Inside NY AM or the first hour of NY PM: 1. 15m candle wicks above 6,670–6,675 and closes back under 6,665. 2. 5m prints a lower high beneath that wick, closing back below ~6,660. 3. 1m breaks down through the intraday shelf near 6,655 with increased selling volume / negative delta. Execution • Entry: around 6,660–6,665 on the first 1m pullback that fails under the broken shelf. • Initial stop: above the wick high, e.g. 6,690 (adjust to the actual 15m high but keep risk in the 20–25 point range). • Risk (example): entry 6,665, stop 6,690 → 25 pts. Targets • TP1: 6,615–6,620 (VWAP / prior intraday shelf) → about 2R (50 pts) from a 25-pt stop. • TP2: 6,540–6,550 (upper edge of S1 / prior congestion) – roughly 4R. • TP3 (runner): 6,520–6,530 (core of S1 cluster) – 5R+ if reached. A++ Setup 2: S1 Flush-and-Reclaim Long Trigger 15m candle flushes below 6,530, ideally tagging 6,520–6,525, with a long tail and closes back above ~6,535–6,540. 5m shows a higher low above the 15m wick low, with real bids stepping in and volume picking up. 1m pushes back through 6,545–6,550 and holds, turning that band into a floor. Execution • Entry: 6,545–6,550 on the first 1m pullback that holds above 6,540 after the reclaim. • Initial stop: below the 15m flush low, e.g. 6,515–6,520. • Example parameters: entry 6,550, stop 6,520 → 30-pt risk. Targets • TP1: 6,595–6,600 (local shelf / prior L at 6,594 and ONH/VWAP neighborhood) → about 2R (60 pts) from a 30-pt stop. • TP2: 6,662–6,678 (R1 band) – the same ceiling from Setup 1; that’s roughly 4R+ from the entry. • TP3 (runner): 6,760–6,780 (R2) if data and vol cooperate, giving 7R+ potential. If that microstructure doesn’t show up, downgrade each play from A++ to stand-aside – let someone else fight in the middle of the range and keep your capital for when the levels truly light up. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1
Does gold need more news to determine the main trend?Over the weekend, gold continued to move in an accumulation pattern – sideways, without forming a strong trend. It is expected that today the price will still fluctuate within the range of 4030 – 4109 (may deviate by 1–2 points). Therefore, the best strategy is to watch and trade within the range. 🔻 PRIORITY SELL ZONE Watch for short sells when the price hits the following resistance areas: 4148-4150 4130-4133 4100-4103 4109-4112 4067 – 4065 (nearest area) → SL: 10 points | TP: 10 points 🔺 PRIORITY BUY ZONE Watch for short buys at strong support areas: 4040 – 4042 4025 – 4020 3965 – 3960 → SL: 10 points | TP: 10 points 📌 Important Note Today, prioritize trading within the Sideway range, as the price may continue to accumulate. When the market breaks 4030 or 4109 with a strong candle, consider chasing buys or sells in the breakout direction. Within the range, the most effective strategy remains short reversal scalping according to the zone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Chum_trades
XAUUSD | Gold Signal |Now 24,2025TREND TARGET FOR TODAY 📊 Gold prices fell on Monday, extending Friday’s decline, as investors awaited more U.S. economic data for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Attention will mainly focus on September retail sales and PPI data on Tuesday, along with weekly jobless claims on Wednesday. Expectations for a December rate cut have shifted after Fed Chair John Williams signaled support for another cut in the near term. The market is now pricing in about a 70% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, compared to around 40% last Thursday following the strong jobs report. XAUUSD trading strategy around key price areas: ♾️SELL XAUUSD 4102–4104 🚨SL: 4109 💰TP 1: 4097 💰TP 2: 4092 💰TP 3: 4087 💰TP 4: 4082 ♾️BUY XAUUSD 4030–4032 🚨SL: 4025 💰TP 1: 4036 💰TP 2: 4041 💰TP 3: 4045 💰TP 4: 4050
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by Richard1000pipsandmore
Altcoins Market ETA- So this graphic show only Cryptos and when i speak only Cryptos, it means " No BTC, No ETH, Not Stablecoins ", Only Altcoins ! - This post is not a price prediction, not a FUD, and not a FOMO, it's just my own opinion based on facts. - Without BTC/ETH and Stables, the crypto market barely reaches $580B MC, a nutshell in the ocean of global finance. Cryptos have already been rejected four times around the $900B MC. ---------------------------------------------------------- - In 2021 we had DeFi. - In 2022 we had L1/L2 wars. - In 2023 we had AI. - In 2024 we had memecoins. But 2025 has no new narrative. ---------------------------------------------------------- Cycles always go like : BTC → ETH → Large caps → Mid caps → Micro caps but this time : - There's too many new tokens, too many VCs and early insiders droping on retails. - Altcoins are falling due to a lack of liquidity, no compelling narrative, and absent buyers, while market makers focus on protecting themselves with BTC and stablecoins. ( Dyor on what happened on 10th October 2025 ). - Right now, most people are holding their breath, waiting for the Fed to launch the next round of QE and another rate cut. - Money makes Money, the world is working like that. - My advice for now: be patient. If you already hold crypto and believe in your projects, just HODL. If you’re new to crypto, stay on the sidelines and wait until the market surpasses $1 trillion. - Comments are welcome but stay sharp and thoughtful. Be Safe! Happy Tr4Ding !
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3ES
by thecryer
Bullish Analysis – XAU/USD (15M) SMC🇺🇸 BREAKDOWN After the market swept all the sell-side liquidity below the previous lows, it became clear that institutions were accumulating longs at discounted prices. Right after that sweep, we got a clean bullish ChoCH, signaling the first shift in intent. Then price left an FVG unmitigated, and as usual, the market created a manipulative bearish BOS—a classic fake-out designed to induce shorts and grab more liquidity before moving in the real direction. That manipulation brings price directly into the 15M Order Block, which aligns with a clean support area. My entry is positioned at 4,039, exactly where I expect the institutional reaction: • 15M OB • Support zone • Liquidity sweep • Clear rejection From that point, I’m expecting the typical sequence: fake out → rejection → lower-timeframe confirmation → bullish expansion. For exits, I’m targeting two key zones: • TP1 at 4,073 for the first FVG mitigation and liquidity grab. • TP2 at 4,101, a level with higher-timeframe inefficiencies waiting to be filled. The setup gives me an R/R of 1:3, totally professional and risk-controlled. This analysis follows the classic institutional flow: liquidity → manipulation → return to origin → bullish continuation. If I get a bullish BOS on 1M or 5M, this becomes an A+ setup. GOOD LUCK TRADERS 🦾😎🖤
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
5
Gold's bullish and bearish trends were perfectly timed this weekGold Technical Analysis: Gold prices have been fluctuating between 4000 and 4110 in recent days, lacking a clear direction. This volatile market requires both caution and opportunity searching. Neither long nor short positions are inherently wrong; the key is precise entry points. Based on this week's closing price, gold reached a high of 4101 before retracing and closing at 4065. Next week, continue to monitor the range-bound movement. The monthly chart for gold may close with a doji, and next week will likely see continued range-bound trading. The weekly chart also shows a doji, indicating no clear direction. While the overall trend remains bullish, the pullback is not yet complete. Looking at the weekly chart alone, next week we temporarily recommend buying low and selling high within the 4110-4020 range until it is broken. A break above this range could lead to 4130-4150 or even 4200, while a break below could target 4000-3980. Strong support is at 3930, with an extreme low around 3886. The daily chart closed with a doji on Friday, so continue with a range-bound trading strategy on Monday. Looking at the 4-hour chart, it is currently consolidating near the end of a triangle pattern. Once it breaks out effectively, there is an estimated profit potential of nearly $250. Before the breakout, operate within the trading range. Go long near the lower edge of the range around 4020 and go short near the upper edge around 4110. Go short a little earlier, around 4100. On the hourly chart, the moving averages are crossing upwards, indicating a bullish alignment. Currently, 4020 is a key short-term support level. If it holds, it will likely remain within the range. A break below this level could see strong support at the 4000 mark. The 4110 level also presents significant resistance; several attempts to break through have failed. However, this level is expected to gradually narrow over time. The longer the consolidation period, the stronger the subsequent breakout. The fundamentals of the bull market remain unchanged, and there is still room for further upward movement. In summary, the recommended trading strategy for gold is to primarily buy on dips and secondarily sell on rallies. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is around 4100-4110, while the key support level is around 4020-4000. Traders must follow the market closely, manage their positions carefully, and strictly adhere to stop-loss orders. Avoid holding losing positions. For specific trading instructions, please refer to the bottom notifications.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Daniel_PrimeFX
BTC long for THE LEAPLong btc and eth here, esp eth, at max pain social sentiment, but besides that, I think mean revision is the name of the game in the start of a bull market, with us approaching elections, and with USDT market cap dominance % near last bull run highs, which would be a low level, thus allowing printing pressure to subside, launching btc upwards. I think the lowest we can go here on btc would be 64k/65k and i'd expect a green buy signal to show up if we push that low, if not we move sideways with chop till we can get a volatile move that resets and gives us a buy signal. I'm early cause I don't think it will be easily timed. GOOD LUCK!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by whitekidspaz
NQ bottom along with tech and crypto.New ATH coming after the recovery, I think this is the bottom of this down move, I don't think we rocket straight back up to ATH but its a great bet to add Long here. You really only get a move like this once every 5 years. I think we see Crypto continue to move up, lots of good projects are oversold in the ALT world and lots of good projects are still carrying to torch. Showing strength amongst the weakness. I think HYPE goes on to lead the way of finance onchain. They are only getting started. I think S / Sonic goes on to be leader of the next defi summer 2.0. (will make a post about them soon) So I'm betting on the fastest horses and calling a decent spot to place bets on the overall condition of the market and i think CRYPTOCAP:BTC leads that race.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by whitekidspaz
HG INFRAHG Infra Engineering Ltd. (currently trading near ₹1,775.40) – Overview HG Infra Engineering Ltd., headquartered in Jaipur, is a leading infrastructure construction company specializing in roads, highways, bridges, flyovers, metro rail, and civil construction projects. Incorporated in 2003, the company has established itself as a key EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) player in India’s transport infrastructure sector. It also undertakes HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) and BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) projects, serving NHAI, state governments, and private developers. FY22–FY25 Snapshot • Sales – ₹3,750 Cr → ₹4,200 Cr → ₹4,650 Cr → ₹5,200 Cr Growth driven by strong order inflows from NHAI and state highway projects • Net Profit – ₹320 Cr → ₹360 Cr → ₹400 Cr → ₹450 Cr Earnings supported by scale, execution efficiency, and margin improvement • Operating Performance – Strong → Strong → Very Strong → Very Strong EBITDA margins improving with high-value EPC contracts and disciplined project execution • Dividend Yield (%) – 0.60% → 0.65% → 0.70% → 0.75% Consistent payouts alongside reinvestment into capacity and equipment • Equity Capital – ₹66 Cr (constant) Promoter-led governance with no dilution • Total Debt – ₹1,050 Cr → ₹980 Cr → ₹920 Cr → ₹860 Cr Gradual deleveraging supported by strong operating cash flows and project receivables • Fixed Assets – ₹1,200 Cr → ₹1,250 Cr → ₹1,300 Cr → ₹1,350 Cr Capex focused on construction equipment, technology upgrades, and regional expansion Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends Promoter holding ~74% FIIs/DIIs actively invested due to strong infra demand visibility and government-backed highway expansion Public float ~26%, with delivery volumes reflecting long-term positioning by infra-focused funds Business Growth Verdict HG Infra is scaling across roads, highways, and metro projects with strong government-backed demand Margins improving via efficient execution and high-value EPC contracts Debt is declining steadily with strong operating cash flows Capex supports long-term competitiveness in infra and transport construction Management Highlights • FY25: Executed large NHAI highway contracts; expanded metro and flyover portfolio • Sustainability: Focus on green construction practices and compliance with ESG standards • Digital: Adoption of project management software and automation for faster execution • FY26 Outlook: 12–14% revenue growth, PAT expected to cross ₹500 Cr Final Investment Verdict HG Infra Engineering Ltd. offers a mid-cap infrastructure story built on strong order book, government-backed demand, and execution efficiency. Its improving profitability, disciplined capital structure, and expanding client base make it suitable for accumulation by investors seeking exposure to India’s transport infrastructure and highway expansion theme. With strong execution and regional presence, HG Infra remains a durable compounder in the infra space.
NSE:HGINFRALong
by TechnicalAnalystSucrit
Conflicting Geopolitical Signals Hold Gold in ConsolidationGold’s safe-haven appeal has always been closely tied to geopolitical risks, and this week’s global developments show a clear split in market sentiment. On one side, early signs of potential peace in the Russia–Ukraine conflict have slightly reduced safe-haven demand. On the other, escalating tensions in the Middle East are injecting fresh uncertainty into the market. This “push-and-pull” dynamic has kept gold in a delicate state of short-term stabilization. Looking ahead, gold’s direction will largely depend on how these events evolve: If Russia–Ukraine negotiations progress smoothly, safe-haven flows may ease further, putting short-term downward pressure on gold. If the talks break down, safe-haven buying could quickly return, potentially driving prices higher. If Middle East tensions worsen, disruptions to global energy supplies may lift inflation expectations, indirectly supporting gold. On the policy front, Williams's remarks led the market to raise its expectations for a rate cut again, but hawkish officials also emphasized the need to maintain current interest rates for some time, and further signals need to be monitored. Meanwhile, if equity markets continue rising on stronger risk appetite, capital could shift away from gold, adding some downside pressure. Weak physical gold demand across major Asian markets last week has also limited gold’s rebound potential. With Thanksgiving approaching, volatility may diminish unless major news breaks, keeping gold largely range-bound. Technically, on the 1H and 2H charts, gold remains suppressed by the MA10. The recent large bearish candle cutting through short-term moving averages reflects a short-term bearish setup. Key support lies at the 4020–4000 zone, while resistance sits at 4069–4076, followed by the 4100 level.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by China_MsWang
Bitcoin: A Brutally Honest AutopsyBitcoin was born in early 2009 as a middle finger to central banks and endless money-printing. Sixteen years later it is the most successful speculative asset in history, yet almost everything the original cypherpunks dreamed of has either been abandoned or turned into its opposite. Here is the unfiltered truth – no slogans, no cope, no marketing. 1. The flywheel is real – and it runs on U.S. government debt Today the majority of new Bitcoin demand does not come from revolutionaries or retail believers. It comes from fresh Tether (USDT) that is printed the moment real dollars arrive at Tether’s bank accounts. Those dollars are immediately used to buy U.S. Treasuries. In 2025 Tether holds roughly $120–130 billion in Treasuries – more than many sovereign nations. The loop is perfect: global hot money → Tether → U.S. debt → new USDT → Bitcoin → higher price → more hot money. Bitcoin, the asset created to end fiat debasement, is now one of the largest indirect buyers of the very debt it was supposed to make obsolete. 2. Tether is no longer fractional – it is “legally” backed… by the same debt Until 2021 Tether printed with smoke and mirrors and paid fines for it. Since 2022 it is technically fully backed 1:1, almost entirely by U.S. Treasuries and repo agreements. It has become the biggest unregulated shadow purchaser of American government debt on the planet. 3. Bitcoin is not digital gold – it is leveraged Nasdaq Every real crisis since 2020 has proven it:March 2020: gold +15 %, Bitcoin –65 % in 48 hours 2022 bear market: gold +20 %, Bitcoin –77 % 30-day correlation with Nasdaq 100 in 2025: ~0.8 Correlation with gold: ~0.2 In a true 1929-style depression Bitcoin will crash together with every other risk asset. Anyone waiting for it to “decouple and moon” while stocks burn will be painfully disappointed. 4. In a survival crisis everything is for sale – including your precious sats When people are hungry they sell whatever can be turned into food, rent or electricity. Gold, stocks, Rolexes, kidneys – and yes, Bitcoin. The coming crash will not be stopped by ideology. Only the last 1–3 million die-hard self-custody holders (or people in collapsing economies who literally have no alternative) will refuse to sell. Everyone else will dump. 5. Quantum computers are the only true kill switch Current estimates place a dangerous quantum breakthrough somewhere between 2030 and 2040. When (not if) a machine can run Shor’s algorithm at scale, every Bitcoin address that has ever spent from becomes vulnerable. A clean migration to quantum-resistant signatures is possible in theory, but coordinating the most stubborn community in finance during a live attack is another story. By the time quantum arrives, multiple quantum-safe chains will already exist and be battle-tested. Bitcoin may survive as a legacy network, but it will probably lose the crown. 6. Bitcoin already failed as everyday money – and that’s fine Volatility makes it useless for buying bread. Lightning Network helps on the margins, but the experiment of “peer-to-peer electronic cash” is over. What remains is the best tool ever created to:move value across borders without permissionhide wealth from collapsing currencies and capital controls speculate with extreme leverage In Nigeria, Turkey, Argentina, Lebanon, Venezuela and sanctioned Russia, adoption is not driven by white papers. It is driven by survival. 7. The final verdict Bitcoin is neither immortal nor destined to zero. Its price can crash 95 % and still never die because a few hundred thousand (or a few million) maniacs will refuse to sell at any price. But it is no longer the future of money in the way its earliest believers imagined. It is a spectacular, rebellious, flawed, revolutionary speculative asset that turned the original dream upside down and made a lot of people rich along the way. When quantum winter finally comes, something newer and quantum-resistant will very likely take the throne. Bitcoin will then become what gold is today: the old king – respected, still valuable, but no longer the daily currency of the world.That is not failure. That is simply the cycle of all revolutionary technologies.– Written from a Greek skeptic in November 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by giorgalexis
BTC/USDT 1W chart review📉 1. Market structure – trend and break • The chart shows a black upward trend line that has led the market since 2023. • This line has been clearly broken, which means: ✔ weakening of the structure ✔ the first serious threat to the upward trend ✔ possible move towards lower support levels A breakout of the weekly trendline usually ends a medium-term upward trend. ⸻ 📉 2. Current price BTC is around USDT 87,770 and the weekly candle is heavily bearish. This means that buyers do not react to the first support. ⸻ 🟥 3. Most important support levels 1) 92,086 USDT – local resistance zone (previously support) • Price has broken this support from above → now acts as resistance. • To return to growth, BTC would have to close the week above this zone. 2) 84,583 USDT – first major support • Price is just above the zone. • If this fails → there will be an increased chance of continued declines. 3) 74,324 USDT – key macro support (MAIN LEVEL) This is the most important level of the chart. • This is the level where demand must occur if BTC is to maintain its long-term structure. • Breaking this barrier will open the way to declines even to around 60-65k. ⸻ 🟩 4. Resistance levels 1) USDT 92,086 Closest resistance – key to recovery. 2) USDT 100,794 Big weekly resistance that stopped the market earlier. Only a breakout → continuation of the bull market. ⸻ 📊 5. Stochastic (week) – very important At the bottom you can see Stochastic sliding down, almost at the value of 0-20 (oversold). Interpretation: • There is no buy signal yet because the lines have not turned upwards. • Weekly momentum is still down, so the pressure on support continues. 📈 7. Scenarios Bullish (less likely for now) 1. Maintaining 84.5k 2. Stochastic weekly turns upwards 3. Price returns above 92k ➡️ Target: 100.7k Bearish (more likely) 1. Breakthrough 84.5k 2. Retest from the bottom 3. Drop to 74.3k ➡️ If 74k breaks → 65-68k
by cryptodailyuk
November 24 - November 28 2025I have recently identified an area of weakness in my trading style. Too often I find myself front-running trades by setting my bias based on where I think my Macro indicators are headed vs where they are positioned currently. Macro moves much slower than equities, so I should instead be looking for volatility setups that align with the current macro bias, and wait for confirmation. No longer should I try to catch the bottom or top, and instead should try to “ride the wave” as a surfer would, with the best entry being an inefficiency while the move is already underway. As a result, I think these Ideas should contain less speculative commentary and instead be more of a snapshot of where things are at heading into the new week, and for my bias to only shift when changes have already presented themselves. 1. Macro Here, I want to make the point of what time of regime the market is currently in. The financial media is trying to spin the recent sell off as due to inflationary fears and suggestions that the AI bubble has burst. The latter point is debatable so I will not digress into that topic here, however based on what I am seeing, the inflation argument is the opposite of what the evidence shows, and instead the market is seeing lower inflation/growth, sparking fears (for now) that AI stock bets are misaligned with current macroeconomic factors, especially considering that political and trade turbulence that caused the Q1 crash are still present. Right now, what is important to take away from this is that the dollar is catching a FX bid but is not rallying as it would if institutions were seeking it as a “safe haven”. The same can be said for TVC:GOLD , where rising real yields and falling inflation expectations have kept it flat. The hedge is still there but the buyers and sellers are currently in balance at this price level. $MOVE/VIX and the individual charts show what we already know: equities and bonds have been volatile, but equities significantly more as a proportion to the former. Next, the TVC:US10 and $US10/DXY provide further confirmation that treasuries are not seeing a “safe haven” rally either. TVC:US02Y fell at the end of last week and while the 5Y real yield ( TVC:US05Y -T5YIE) is above average, it will be important to see if it continues to weaken or will goes on to make higher highs, as it will set the tone for the rest of the Macro regime. Going back to my point about falling inflation expectations being the underlying cause of what is pushing up real yields, the 5Y breakeven chart FRED:T5YIE shows that the downtrend in inflation expectations that began 10/31 has coincided with volatility pressure. My commodity index (avg of corn, cotton, copper, and aluminum vs DXY) and NYMEX:CL1! also contradict the argument that inflation is making a comeback. Falling commodities i this environment provides further confirmation that growth is stalling. My current assessment is that the market is risk-off, but the risk aversion is concentrated in equities due to growth concerns. While rate cuts can help boost growth, the rate cut-bet is not what is driving the market. The market needs evidence that growth is increasing in order to snap out of its rut. 2. FX On FX based on what I currently see (no speculation), the market is risk-off - so the market is seeking safety/liquidity. TVC:DXY has outperformed the other currency indices this month, while US 2Y bond yields are moving lower compared to other “funding” countries. This signals that USD is in fact acting as a safe-haven and the market is expecting lower rates in the US in the future. The way I’m seeing this tie back into Macro is that the market is expecting lower nominal yields in the near future and is seeking liquidity in USD. The Fed will likely cut into lower growth, but the market will still be risk-averse if falling growth/inflation outpaces falling nominal yields (which could cause real yields FRED:DFII10 to continue rising). 3.Risk Not much to add here. Pressure continues in private-credit, which is high-risk and highly leveraged. This is definitely a driver of the sell off which does not make the headlines often. IMO private credit could one day act as a major accelerator for market turmoil if bankruptcies are increasing. With rates set to come down and growth declining, this could push private credit to seek higher yields from even riskier bets. $XLK/XLP illustrates the risk-off activity we have been seeing. 4. Bias Since I’m trying to focus these Ideas on Macro and FX analysis, I’ll have more to say about my short-term analysis in Minds. What I am seeing here on the CME_MINI:NQ1! 1h Renko chart with monthly VWAP overlaid is that the market is very weak in November, as we already know. This pattern seems reminiscent of December 2024. With the Macro picture looking so bad for growth, I think a rise back to ATH would require a major VIX compression. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ Conclusion: It is important to understand what is driving sentiment in the market, and what I have outlined here shows that it is not rising inflation, as some would like to make us believe. Instead, we should expect weak growth to continue and the Fed to cut interest rates to drive up demand. This creates poor conditions for high-growth bets on tech/AI, especially if disinflation outpaces nominal yields falling. If the Macro/FX/Credit structure stays the same this week, I will only treat daily short-volatility (bullish) positioning to be part of a larger reversion higher (temporary). Long volatility (bearish) days that align with current macro conditions (also bearish for equities), will provide the most profitable trading opportunities.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by ap769
3
USDCHF: Bullish CRT CycleThe Narrative: The market has completed the accumulation phase at the lows. We have a confirmed CRTL + TS (Turtle Soup) at 0.80417. This sweep of the lows indicates that sell-side liquidity has been harvested, and the "fuel" for the move up has been gathered. The Technical Setup: 1. The Trap (Turtle Soup): Price stabbed into the Range Low (CRTL) and reversed. In CRT, this "Turtle Soup" creates a false breakdown to trap sellers. "Turtle soup = explosive moves!". 2. The Entry Zone (FVG): After the initial bounce, price created a Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). I am waiting for a retracement into this zone (marked in grey). This allows us to enter at a "Discount" price alongside smart money before the expansion continues. 3. The Draw on Liquidity (Target): The market naturally seeks to rotate from range low to range high. Our target is the CRTH (Candle Range Theory High) at the top of the structure. Execution Plan: WAIT: For price to dip into the FVG (approx. 0.80600). TRIGGER: Watch for a Bullish Model #1 confirmation inside the FVG. TARGET: The unmitigated highs at CRTH.
Long
by MrYounity
2
XAUUSD: Bearish CRT Setup (Turtle Soup + FVG Entry)The Narrative: Gold has successfully completed the "Manipulation" phase of the CRT cycle. We have a confirmed CRTH + TS (Turtle Soup) at the highs, where price swept liquidity and rejected. This signals that the high is likely in and smart money is positioning for a reversal "Turtle soup = explosive moves!". The Technical Setup: 1. The Trap (Turtle Soup): The move above the previous high (CRTH) was a classic Turtle Soup designed to trap breakout buyers and stop out early sellers. This manipulation creates the fuel needed for the move down. 2. The Inducement ($$$): We have left clean sell-side liquidity ($$$) below the recent consolidation. This internal liquidity acts as a magnet for price to "gather" orders. 3. The Entry Zone (FVG): I am waiting for a retracement into the Bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap). This aligns with the CRT concept of selling at "Premium" pricing inside the imbalance. When a setup appears with an FVG, it becomes even more powerful. Execution Plan: WAIT: For price to trade back up into the dark grey FVG box. TRIGGER: Watch for a Bearish Model #1 or rejection candle inside the FVG (a strong bearish close confirming the reversal). TARGET: The CRTL (Candle Range Theory Low) at 4,022.53. "Before you trade a pattern, learn the candle.". Wait for the close to confirm the entry. 📉 Trade safe!
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by MrYounity
EURUSD: SMT Divergence into Kiss of Death (KOD) SetupEURUSD: SMT Divergence into Kiss of Death (KOD) Setup ☠️ We are currently witnessing a textbook Smart Money trap unfolding on the 4H timeframe. While retail traders are chasing the breakdown at the lows, the CRT (Candle Range Theory) framework tells a different story. The "Why" – Technical Confluences: 1. Bullish SMT Divergence: We have a confirmed SMT (Smart Money Technique) signal at the recent lows. EURUSD made a Lower Low (sweeping liquidity). DXY failed to make a Higher High (making a Lower High instead). This divergence indicates that the Dollar is weaker than it appears, providing the immediate fuel for a retracement upward. 2. Turtle Soup (Liquidity Sweep): Price has swept the internal range liquidity at the lows. In CRT, this "Turtle Soup" is the fuel required to drive price back up into premium levels. 3. The Magnet (Fair Value Gap): Price is now drawn toward the Bearish FVG (red box) above. This imbalance acts as a magnet, pulling price from a "Discount" to a "Premium" pricing level before the trend can resume. The Game Plan: I am not buying this rally. Instead, I am waiting for the Kiss of Death (KOD) pattern to form inside the FVG. This pattern acts as the market's final trap to entice early buyers before the real move down begins. WAIT: Let price trade up into the FVG box. TRIGGER: Watch for a Bearish Model #1 reversal inside the zone (a stab into the high followed by a strong bearish close) . EXECUTION: Enter on the confirmation of the breakdown from the KOD/FVG confluence. TARGET: The ultimate liquidity run toward 1.14020. As the saying goes: "Every entry is an exit, and every exit is an entry.". Let the smart money provide the liquidity for our short. 📉 Trade safe and wait for the close! Greetings, MrYounity
Short
by MrYounity
1
Forex: Weekly Review Overall market sentiment was, at best, 'choppy' during the week starting Monday 17 November. A continuation of recent themes (AI overvaluation concerns / hawkish FED repricing) ensured an underlying tentativiity throughout the week and any positivity was short lived (NVIDEA earnings / GOOGLE positivity). Even the return of NFP, with a headline beat, ultimately proved negative as a December FED rate cut diminished to 30%. All in all, it's a difficult environment, correlations have broken down, particularly the JPY, which struggled throughout the week thanks to the government stimulus. And It currently appears the BOJ don't have rate hike plans until spring 2026. Which brings intervention chatter to the fore. It's likely the BOJ will synchronise intervention with 'soft' US data. And once the BOJ do intervene, it will ultimately be a 'short JPY opportunity'. In the meantime 'verbal intervention threats' (jawboning) will be a 'risk' to any short JPY trades. The AUD continues to under perform its fundamentals, weighed down by the tepid environment. And the run of soft UK data continues, the GBP remains remarkably resilient. All eyes are on the upcoming UK budget. On Friday, we did get a FED twist, against the grain, New York FED president WILLIAMS mooted a near term rate cut. There is a theory this was a coordinated speech, lining up a December cut, appeasing the market and swinging the FED RATE MONITOR back towards a December cut. Whether it will prove to be a short lived 'relief bounce', only time will tell. The sooner we get a run of 'real time' US data, the better. I begin the new week without a clear bias, I'll be reading headlines and watching the VIX in an attempt to guage how serious the market is one way or the other. On a personal note, it was a week I found difficult to form a solid conviction, only one trade. And it was a particularly speculative AUD CHF short, when I felt the chart was going to roll over. The trade stopped out quite quickly during one of those brief periods of positivity. I'm currently envisioning a continuation of only one or two trades per week and I'm content to slightly up my risk percentage in an attempt to make up the numbers. Let's see what the new week brings.
by johnelfedforexblog
1