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Fundamental Analysis

Verge · XVG Market LookVerge BINANCE:XVGUSDT is now pressing into a big resistance zone that has stopped price for more than two years. The trendline under the price keeps rising, and that means buyers are getting stronger. Sellers in that zone look weaker. Volume is also picking up, which usually shows interest before a big rally. This setup is ascending triangle. If XVG closes a weekly candle above the full resistance block with strong volume, the next move can be fast because there is not much supply sitting above that level. For now, the chart is squeezing tighter and the demand zone keeps holding. These signs often show that a breakout is getting closer. If you follow a basic plan, it is easy. Wait for a clean close above resistance. No guesswork. No rushing in early. Get in when you have confirmation. TheCryptoFire
Long
by TheCryptoFire
Airbus SE Accelerates Production as Tension Grows with Suppliers By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Airbus SE is once again at the center of industrial attention. The European manufacturer is standing firm on its ambitious plan to ramp up A320neo production to 75 aircraft per month by 2027, but pressure on the supply chain — particularly engine suppliers — threatens to disrupt the timeline. According to industry sources, Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary of RTX Corp (NYSE:RTX), is engaged in intensive negotiations with Airbus to secure engine deliveries beyond 2027. Although the supplier has already fulfilled the commitments agreed for 2025, tensions continue to rise. The reason: accumulated delays in repairs of its GTF engines, which have left hundreds of aircraft grounded worldwide over the past months. The situation is delicate enough that Airbus is forced to manage fuselage production while also handling a growing inventory of “gliders” — aircraft that are technically completed but lack engines. In this context, the battle between Pratt & Whitney and CFM International — the alliance between GE Aerospace and Safran SA (EPA:SAF) — is intensifying. Both groups compete to power the backbone of the global narrow-body fleet, yet neither is immune to capacity constraints and maintenance-shop bottlenecks. Industrial and Financial Impact The challenge for Airbus is significant. Airlines are pushing to receive their orders at a time when demand for single-aisle aircraft is at historic highs. For the company, meeting production targets is essential to sustain revenues, margins, and cash flow in the coming years. Engine delays have forced Pratt & Whitney to prioritize critical repairs, slowing the delivery of new units. Although Airbus has not officially revised its guidance, several European and Middle Eastern airlines warn that bottlenecks could extend into 2027, coinciding with the most demanding phase of the production ramp-up. Technical Analysis: Airbus SE (AIR.GE) Since April, Airbus SE (EPA:AIR) has maintained an upward trend and, in recent sessions, has been trading near the upper end of its current range, between €216.85 and €198.15, reflecting market confidence in the structural growth of the aerospace sector. However, the stock is showing resistance near the indicated all-time highs, where the price appears to be consolidating as investors await updates on the supply chain. Any signs of stabilization in the engine-related issues could act as a bullish catalyst. Conversely, new inspections, extended delays, or any news suggesting further disruptions could trigger technical corrections toward key support levels. From a technical standpoint, the current price fluctuates around the 50-day moving average, after having lost it in the previous session. The RSI sits at a neutral 49.82%, while the MACD appears to have entered corrective territory. ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicates that speculation and risk sentiment in the European market are neutral, suggesting that the current price action reflects a consolidation phase following the recent highs. Market Outlook For Airbus, the equation is clear: demand is strong, the backlog is solid, and financing is not an issue. However, the supply chain — particularly engine providers — remains the Achilles’ heel of global aviation. For the European manufacturer, Pratt & Whitney’s ability to meet deadlines will determine whether 2027 becomes a year of full expansion or one marked by delays in one of the most ambitious industrial plans of the decade. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
XETR:AIRLong
by ActivTrades
Levi Strauss Partners With Microsoft to Build AI “Superagent"Levi Strauss & Co. Partners With Microsoft to Build AI “Superagent” — Stock Faces Key Levels Fundamentals Levi Strauss & Co. has partnered with Microsoft to accelerate its transformation into a modern, AI-driven, direct-to-consumer powerhouse. The collaboration centers around Microsoft’s full AI stack, including Microsoft 365 Copilot, Azure AI Foundry, GitHub Copilot, Copilot Studio, and advanced agentic AI orchestration. At the core of this partnership is Levi’s new Azure-native superagent, a central conversational system embedded directly into Microsoft Teams. This intelligent orchestrator allows employees across retail, warehouse, and corporate environments to ask questions and receive instant responses from multiple underlying AI agents. This shift is part of Levi’s strategy to become “fan-obsessed,” improving speed, personalization, and operational efficiency. Employees are also adopting Microsoft Surface Copilot+ PCs, reporting faster performance and better data handling for AI workloads. Levi’s broader move to Microsoft Azure supports cloud migration, security automation, and scalability, reinforcing its goal to build a more agile technology foundation. The partnership highlights how legacy brands are using AI to reinvent retail and elevate customer experience. Technicals Levi Strauss (LEVI) is showing signs of weakness after price rejected the $24 resistance zone. This level has acted as a major resistance, and the recent rejection suggests sellers are still in control. Unless buyers step in strongly, the bearish momentum could continue, potentially driving price back toward the long-term $12 support. The structure remains bearish as long as LEVI trades below $24. The market is forming internal lower highs and lower lows since the resistance was tapped, indicating exhaustion among buyers, and momentum indicators suggest declining strength. If the downtrend continues, $12 becomes the next major demand zone where long-term buyers may look for value. However, if price manages to break cleanly above $24, the technical picture shifts. A confirmed breakout could open the door to $30, the next major resistance level. For now, watch $24 closely — it remains the line that separates continued downside from a bullish recovery.
NYSE:LEVILong
by DEXWireNews
Hungary's Interest Rate Decision: The Fight Against InflationThe National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is expected to maintain the European Union's highest key interest rate, currently at 6.5% , for the 14th consecutive month. This decision underscores the NBH's commitment to prioritizing financial stability and currency support over stimulating immediate economic growth. Keeping the rate high is the primary tool policymakers use to manage above-target inflation and anchor the Forint (HUF) . Monetary Policy and Inflation Focus The decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.5% aligns with the consensus of financial experts, reflecting a cautious, tight monetary policy. This high rate makes borrowing expensive, curbing demand and consequently helping to cool inflation , which stood at 4.3% annually in October. This figure remains outside the central bank's targeted 3% range (with a 1% tolerance band). The NBH maintains this stance despite political pressure from Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who advocates for rate cuts to boost faltering economic performance. Governor Mihaly Varga's focus on price stability confirms the central bank's independence in prioritizing its core mandate. Currency Strength and Market Implications The sustained high rate is a significant factor in the strength of the forint. The substantial rate premium attracts foreign investors engaging in carry trades , where they borrow in a low-interest-rate currency (like the Euro) and invest in the high-yielding forint. This demand has led to the forint gaining over 7% against the Euro year-to-date. For bond markets, the high rate environment is challenging; the yield on the 10-year government forint bond recently climbed past 7%, reflecting increased risk related to pre-election spending and loosened fiscal targets. Money market forward rate agreements indicate that investors don't anticipate a rate reduction before the next elections in April. Political and Geopolitical Backdrop Political dynamics also influence market sentiment. The government's recent pre-election fiscal loosening has constrained the central bank's room for maneuver, adding risks to the country's economic stability. In a move to shield Hungarian assets, Prime Minister Orban claimed to have secured an undisclosed US financial backstop to protect the currency and bond markets following a meeting with President Donald Trump. While the US government has not confirmed this arrangement, the statement reflects the government's concern about maintaining market confidence. This geopolitical angle adds a layer of complexity for investors monitoring the Hungarian market.
Long
by the5erstrading
Risk Off Sentiment - EUR Up / AUD Down. Please Read: I enter on flip of the PSAR as per my strategy and plan. This gives me the best price over my long term trading as I trade on a 15M Chart with HTF Analysis. Only on break of the PSAR I enter, with Stop always at recent swing low. This strategy works for me when the price comes to the 20SMA and the 50SMA is creeping up, to where my stop is now protected additionally by the 50SMA - if my technical analysis is correct then the price will only ever wick into the 50 and not break. On a break of the 50 I review the trade as back into a possible short term consolidation. EURAUD Long A Pair to watch today. EUR is strong & AUD is selling off with the risk off markets in both Crypto & Equities. Money is flowing back into european currencies, and the momentum is up on the EUR. Watch how today plays out during the London Open.
Long
by StevenForbesFX
PRE-LONDON CONDITIONS — DXY Range-Bound, Yields Slide, ES HeavyU.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds a tight 98.99–99.59 range in a third consecutive inside bar. U.S. 10-year yield drops ~1.01% in Asia. U.S. 2-year yield falls ~1.27%. S&P 500 futures (ES) extend lower toward the 6.571 fractal. Gold tests support after filling imbalance. Volatility remains elevated. DXY — Dollar Index Dollar stays inside 98.991–99.591. Inside-bar stack remains unbroken. Price sits near the 0.6 premium zone. Neutral until London breaks the range. Yields — 10Y & 2Y 10Y yield: -1.01% in Asia → long-end compression. 2Y yield: -1.27% → dovish policy tone. Curve: both ends lower → risk-off positioning. ES — S&P 500 Futures ES moves lower toward 6.571. Yesterday’s high-volatility expansion continues. Tone remains defensive. Gold — Safety Premium Gold fills imbalance and presses into support. Break = active safety flows. Hold = passive bid. Volatility VIX closed pre-London. Futures hold elevated regime. Conditions favor fast intraday expansions. Calendar Risk Medium-tier data ahead. Yesterday’s partial data production repeats → limited visibility. Expect flow-driven moves until major prints arrive. Execution View DXY bias neutral inside range. Yields down + ES down = risk-off. Gold support = key inflection. London expansion outside 98.99–99.59 sets direction. Trade second move, not first spike. Summary: Dollar trapped. Yields lower. ES heavy. Gold at support. Fragile pre-London environment; London’s first expansion defines the session. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
TVC:US02Y
by CORE5DAN
Crypto Cycle: The Arrogance and The Irony — A Must ReadThe Cycle That Changed Everything This cycle — which really started in October 2023 — broke every pattern from previous crypto bull runs. Crypto was created as a rebellion: Freedom from banks. An anti-system technology. Privacy. Self-sovereignty. A way for normal people to create wealth without permission. And yet… somehow the exact people crypto was trying to escape have taken control of it. Retail investors used to love the idea of owning their finances. No more banks telling them what to do. No more gatekeepers. Until they arrived. 1 — The Arrogance The rich run the world — that’s nothing new. But crypto annoyed them. A lot. Because crypto allowed ordinary people to do what Wall Street hates most: Make money without giving the rich a cut. So what did institutions do? Simple: “If you can’t kill it… own it.” They stopped fighting crypto, took over the market, bought the exchanges, injected billions, partnered with the stablecoin printers, and unleashed industrial-scale manipulation. The old days of making x10 or x100 on leverage? Gone. Retail got liquidated again… and again… and again. Bitcoin pumped 3 times by billionaires (just look at the three green boxes on the chart). Retail got excited — then destroyed. Rinse and repeat. Eventually, retail gave up. They moved into gold, silver, or even plain USD — just to stop losing money. Meanwhile institutions kept pumping Bitcoin and Ethereum artificially, hoping to lure back fresh meat… but nobody came. 2 — The Irony Then came October 11, 2025 — the day the curtain fell. In a dry, illiquid market, Binance did their usual liquidation-hunting game, backed by newly-printed billions from Tether: 2 billion minted one day, 2 billion the next. They pushed Bitcoin to $126,000. Then the crash hit. They chased longs so hard that, in a market with no liquidity, the entire altcoin market collapsed. Some coins literally went to zero. Binance had to halt trading. The liquidation chain couldn’t be stopped. Some market makers lost everything. And now they’re furious. Binance got exposed. The pump-and-dump machine is broken. And if they continue, they risk criminal investigations and lawsuits from every direction. Suddenly BlackRock, Saylor, and friends had a problem: Their favorite manipulation partner was knocked out. And that’s when reality hit: Institutions had pushed Bitcoin so high — without retail — that they found themselves holding billions in assets… …with nobody left to buy their bags. Old-time Bitcoin holders realized BTC was compromised and began to sell. Bitcoin maxis rekt the institutions. The billionaires who bought at $120k got destroyed by the exact people they planned to destroy. Karma doesn’t miss. Even Eric Trump started selling — too late. Bitcoin fell under $89k, and there were no buyers left. 3 — The Lesson Institutions need to understand one thing: Crypto is not for institutions. The tech? Sure. The coins? No. Crypto without retail is like a vampire trying to drink its own blood. Pointless and self-destructive. And retail won’t return for “fractional Trump coin” or corporate-approved BTC. Retail wants: x10, x100, x1000. That means one thing: ALTSEASON. If institutions want liquidity to exit, they must engineer an altseason and share some profits. Because without retail, they’re stuck in their expensive echo chamber holding overpriced bags that nobody wants. And if they do create an altseason? Retail will dump on them harder than ever — watching TradingView and influencers, selling every rally right back into the institutions’ faces. Wall Street, stick to Wall Street. Leave crypto to the crypto degenerates. It’s a wild jungle, and you were never prepared. #CryptoCycle #BitcoinCrash #AltseasonWhen #CryptoHumor #MarketManipulation #InstitutionsRekt #BinanceDrama #RetailVsWhales #CryptoReality #KarmaInCrypto #CryptoStory #PattayaCryptoDegens
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by CryptoNikkoid
9
Gold Bears Take ChargeGold continues to trade under calculated downward pressure as the market maintains a decisive bearish structure. The repeated inability of buyers to hold price above the 4020–4035 supply region confirms that sellers remain firmly in control. This zone has now become a strong rejection point, shaping a clear bearish trajectory for the sessions ahead. On the technical front, price is forming tight corrective pullbacks—an indication of seller strength and buyer exhaustion. The break below the 4000 psychological level has further shifted momentum, exposing the downside liquidity pocket toward 3940. Fundamental Drivers Boosting Bearish Pressure 1. Strengthening U.S. Dollar Dollar demand has picked up amid safe-haven flows and expectations of tighter U.S. financial conditions. A stronger USD traditionally weighs on gold, reducing its appeal as a non-yielding asset. 2. Hawkish Tone From the U.S. Federal Reserve Recent comments from Fed officials hint at reluctance to cut rates aggressively. Even a mildly hawkish stance keeps treasury yields elevated—another bearish force for gold. 3. Reduced Demand for Safe-Haven Assets Geopolitical tensions have eased compared to previous weeks, lowering emergency demand for gold. When risk appetite stabilizes, investors rotate out of metals and into higher-yielding assets. 4. Rising Bond Yields Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, pushing metal prices downward as investors prefer income-generating instruments. key points RESISTANCE LEVEL 4056 SUPPORT LEVEL 4005 TARGET LEVEL1 3980 TARGET LEVEL 2 3940
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by IGT_Traders
XAU/USD – Bearish Momentum Approaches Key Support ZoneGold continues to trade within a clear downtrend on the H1 timeframe, respecting the descending trendline and forming consistent lower highs. Price is now moving toward a major support zone — an area that has previously triggered strong bullish reactions — making it a critical level to watch for today’s session. Technical Outlook Trendline: Price continues to respect the descending trendline, confirming strong bearish control. Support Zone: 3,985 – 3,995 remains the most important demand area. This zone has acted as a reversal base multiple times. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance: 4,025 – 4,035 (trendline confluence) Upper resistance: 4,065 – 4,075 Indicators: EMA Structure: Price remains below short-term EMAs → indicates sellers remain dominant. RSI: Approaching oversold territory, suggesting a possible technical rebound. Fibonacci: The 0.618 retracement aligns closely with the support area, increasing its reliability. Price Behavior The chart shows two previous consolidation boxes (accumulation phases), followed by expansions. The current structure is a deep pullback into major support. If selling pressure weakens at this zone, a short-term rebound toward the trendline is likely before the market decides its next major direction. Trading Strategy Scenario 1 – Bullish Rebound at 3,985 – 3,995 Wait for bullish confirmation candles + increasing volume. Entry: 3,995 – 4,005 Target 1: 4,025 Target 2: 4,065 Stop-loss: below 3,975 Scenario 2 – Breakdown Below Support Only trade if price closes clearly below 3,985. Entry: around 3,980 Target 1: 3,960 Target 2: 3,930 Stop-loss: above 4,010 Final Note The overall structure still favors the bearish side, but the support zone below is a decision point for the market. Observe price action carefully before entering. Follow for more daily strategies and insights, and save this analysis if you find it helpful.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Eli Lilly and Company: Path to Sustained Market LeadershipEli Lilly and Company has achieved a market valuation approaching one trillion U.S. dollars by the close of 2025, underpinned by a comprehensive corporate strategy that integrates advanced scientific research, targeted technology acquisitions, and adaptive global partnerships. This performance, marked by a substantial year-over-year share appreciation, positions the firm as a preeminent participant in the international pharmaceutical sector and underscores structural advantages in innovation-driven capital markets. Core Therapeutic Franchises and Pipeline Expansion The company's cardiometabolic portfolio, centered on dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonists, continues to serve as the principal engine of revenue growth. Products indicated for type 2 diabetes and chronic weight management recorded quarterly sales exceeding ten billion dollars in 2025, reflecting robust demand in large-scale metabolic disease populations. Ongoing clinical investigation into the neurobiological effects of these molecules has yielded preliminary evidence of modulation within central reward pathways, suggesting potential future applications in neuropsychiatric conditions characterized by dysregulated appetite control. Such findings reinforce the intellectual property protections surrounding the franchise and broaden its therapeutic scope. In parallel, Eli Lilly is advancing capabilities in central nervous system disorders through specialized drug-delivery technologies. A recent multibillion-dollar licensing agreement with a South Korean biotechnology enterprise grants exclusive access to an engineered bispecific antibody platform designed to enhance macromolecular transport across the blood-brain barrier. This acquisition complements prior collaborations in the same domain and materially strengthens the company's competitive positioning in Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, and related neurodegenerative indications. Global Research Collaborations and Supply-Chain Resilience Strategic alliances with leading Asian biotechnology organizations form a key component of Eli Lilly’s innovation sourcing model. These partnerships provide access to proprietary platform technologies, expand the firm's intellectual property base beyond North American origination, and foster diversified scientific talent networks. By establishing collaborative development nodes within geopolitically aligned jurisdictions, the company enhances resilience in high-value biopharmaceutical supply chains while accelerating the maturation of next-generation therapeutic modalities. Capital Market Dynamics and Transatlantic Divergence Eli Lilly operates within a U.S. financial ecosystem that currently represents approximately three-quarters of global developed-market equity indices, an environment particularly conducive to large-capitalization growth enterprises. This structural weighting, combined with concentrated domestic healthcare spending and investor preference for scalable innovation platforms, has facilitated accelerated valuation expansion. In contrast, European peers contend with more fragmented national markets and differing risk appetite conventions among institutional investors, resulting in divergent capital allocation outcomes across the Atlantic. Executive Leadership and Technology Adoption Under the direction of Chief Executive Officer David Ricks, Eli Lilly has institutionalized the integration of advanced computational tools throughout the research and decision-making processes. Specialized large-language models and frontier artificial intelligence systems are routinely employed to augment hypothesis generation and data interpretation, supported by investments in high-throughput robotic experimentation infrastructure. This disciplined yet exploratory approach to emerging technologies reflects a broader organizational commitment to maintaining leadership in computationally assisted drug discovery. Evolution Toward Platform-Centric Development The company has transitioned from asset-specific transactions to the systematic acquisition of foundational technology platforms capable of yielding multiple product candidates. Recent investments in blood-brain barrier transport modalities and downstream applications in oncology illustrate this paradigm. By prioritizing versatile, proprietary enabling technologies, Eli Lilly establishes durable competitive barriers and aligns its research and development expenditure with long-term industry trends favoring multi-indication pipelines. Intellectual Property Strategy and Risk Mitigation Comprehensive patent estates surrounding the incretin mimetic class, coupled with proactive manufacturing capacity expansion, preserve pricing autonomy and market exclusivity in high-volume cardiometabolic indications. Concurrent investment in novel mechanisms—of which blood-brain barrier penetration is a prime example—serves to replenish the development pipeline and offset eventual patent expirations on current revenue-generating products. This forward-looking intellectual property management underpins investor confidence in the sustainability of the company’s growth trajectory. In summary, Eli Lilly’s ascent to near-trillion-dollar valuation reflects the successful execution of an integrated strategy encompassing scientific excellence, strategic technology acquisition, international collaboration, and rigorous capital allocation—positioning the enterprise for continued leadership in global biopharmaceutical innovation.
NYSE:LLYLong
by TradeThePool
GOLD Bullish Analysis (SMC)🟦 PROFESSIONAL BREAKDOWN 🔎 1. Market Context Price creates a strong bearish displacement, leaving a clean FVG unmitigated. Then a significant ChoCH forms at a demand zone, signaling the first shift in market intention. 🧱 2. Institutional Accumulation Zone Between the OB-5M and the support zone, we see: • Consecutive rejections • Order absorption • Indecision candles All of this reveals institutional buyers defending the level. 📉 3. Liquidity Sweep & Manipulation (Fake Out) Price temporarily breaks below support, generating: • Sell-side liquidity • Immediate buy-side absorption • Clean return into the range This follows the classic SMC blueprint: Liquidity → Mitigation → Expansion. 📈 4. Bullish Confirmation A clean BOS confirms internal bullish structure. The sequence becomes: 1. ChoCH 2. Liquidity sweep 3. OB mitigation 4. Bullish BOS 5. Expansion towards targets Perfect institutional flow. 🎯 5. Entry Zone 📍 BUY 4,015 Confluences: • 5M Order Block • Strong support zone • Fake out with absorption • FVG mitigation • Structural confirmation (BOS) 🛡️ 6. Stop Loss 📍 SL 3,990 Placed below the liquidity sweep — beyond this level, the idea is invalid. 🎯 7. Take Profits • TP1: 4,045 → first distribution target. • TP2: 4,067 → major buy-side liquidity target where institutions offload positions. 🧠 Professional Conclusion This setup is built on: ✔ Liquidity engineering ✔ Clear structure ✔ Mitigation principles ✔ Institutional rejection ✔ Organic expansion A high-probability bullish setup, fully aligned with institutional price behavior. 💬 Motivational Message… “Great traders don’t chase the market — they anticipate it. Trust your process, respect your levels, and execute with confidence. Consistency is built candle by candle.”
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 18, 2025 GBPUSDThe GBPUSD pair is holding near 1.31500–1.31600, as the dollar is supported by cautious market sentiment ahead of upcoming US data and by revised expectations for a Fed rate cut. Any strong figures on employment or inflation in the US strengthen the case for keeping rates high for longer and limit the upside potential for the pound. On the UK side, pressure comes from weak growth and signs of a cooling labor market. Recent GDP figures confirmed only modest expansion, while labor market reports indicate slower job creation, which increases the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut next year. Additional pressure on the pound comes from the high sensitivity of households and businesses to borrowing costs and from uncertainty around fiscal policy. Against the backdrop of a strong dollar and growing expectations of a softer stance from the Bank of England, fundamental factors tilt the balance in favor of further GBPUSD downside, which supports short positions from around 1.31550 with a target near 1.30550. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.31550, SL 1.32050, TP 1.30550
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold on a downward trend, hitting...💛 LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold on a downward trend, hitting strong support around 4005 🎯 Gold has plunged from its peak, currently “visiting” the 4005–3990 zone, where trendline + POC/OB + large liquidity converge. This is a zone with potential for a technical rebound, but the short-term trend remains bearish, so all BUY orders need clear confirmation. 🔍 Fundamental Analysis Goldman Sachs forecasts that during 2025–2026, central banks will purchase an average of ~80 tons of gold per month, a significant driver that could propel gold towards $4,900/oz by the end of 2026. This keeps the long-term trend for gold bullish, but in the short term, deep corrections like the current one are normal to “shake out” positions before big money returns. 📊 Technical Analysis Current trend: H1 is still in a short-term downtrend phase (lower high – lower low), with prices below the 4080–4100 resistance zone and the nearest descending trendline. Main support zones: 4005–3990: intersection of long-term ascending trendline, POC – OB, old VAH/VAL zone → critical support, potential for bottom-fishing buying force. 3975–3977: deeper support, coinciding with liquidity zone & recent bottom. Key resistance zones: 4098–4100: confluence of resistance + trendline test → prime zone to watch for SELL retracement. Above is the cluster 4011 – 4053 – 4077 – 4098–4100 acting as “steps” for scalping orders. Volume Profile: Heavy trading volume around the 4000–4020 zone → prices tend to revisit this area multiple times before leaving. 🎯 Suggested Trading Scenarios SELL – following the downtrend (priority) Entry: 4098–4100 SL: 4105 TP: 4082 → 4060 → 4035 → 4012 Price retraces to resistance + descending trendline. Only activate when M15–H1 shows clear rejection candles (pin bar/bearish engulfing) around 4098–4100. BUY – catching the rebound at strong support Entry: 3975–3977 SL: 3970 TP: 3995 → 4025 → 4050 → 4080 Confluence support zone at channel bottom + POC/OB + liquidity. Only BUY with strong rejection or clear reversal pattern (M15–H1). ⚠️ Price zones to watch for scalping 4011 – 4053 – 4077 – 3939 These zones are suitable for short scalps, prioritizing the main trend (currently bearish), quick exits – do not hold positions too long. 🧠 Risks & Invalidation H1 closes above 4105 → reduces SELL priority, wait for new structure. H1 closes below 3970 → unfavorable structure for BUY side, potential for further decline to lower zones. Are you watching to BUY or SELL gold in this zone? 👉 Comment your perspective & Follow LiamTrading channel for daily XAUUSD plans.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
GOLD TESTING CRITICAL $4,000 SUPPORT!🚨 ALERT - CRITICAL SITUATION! Gold is in DANGEROUS TERRITORY! The market is testing the psychologically critical $4,000 level after a sharp decline. This is a make-or-break moment! What's Happening: ❗ Price Expected to DECLINE Today - Analysts forecast further downside ❗ $4,000 Psychological Support - Being tested RIGHT NOW ❗ DXY Strengthening - Dollar at key support (99.50), pressuring gold ❗ Bearish Momentum Active - Third consecutive day of decline ❗ Triangle Breakdown Risk - Pattern suggests more downside 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Market Structure: BEARISH 🔴🔴🔴 Gold has broken down from consolidation triangle and is now testing the crucial $4,000-$4,040 support zone. This is buyers' LAST STAND! Current Battle: Bulls defending $4,000-$4,040 vs Bears pushing for breakdown CRITICAL Support Levels (Must Hold!) 🔵 Support 1: $4,020 - $4,040 (Current fight zone - CRITICAL!) Support 2: $4,000 - $4,008 (Psychological - LINE IN SAND!) Support 3: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open - Major) Support 4: $3,930 (Bullish invalidation - DANGER!) Support 5: $3,886 - $3,900 (Previous lows) Key Resistance Levels (Recovery barriers) 🔴 Resistance 1: $4,090 - $4,100 (KEY - Daily pivot) Resistance 2: $4,110 - $4,120 (Strong ceiling) Resistance 3: $4,150 - $4,155 (Major barrier) Resistance 4: $4,187 - $4,200 (Last week's high) 📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS RSI (14): 45-48 (Bearish momentum) 📉 RSI (1H): 52 (Neutral equilibrium - Dormant) MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed ❌ Stochastic: Near oversold - Bounce potential soon ✅ Moving Averages: Price BELOW 20-day EMA 🔴 Testing 50-day SMA support ⚠️ 100-day MA holding (Long-term) ✅ Bollinger Bands: Contraction mode - Big move coming Volume: Above average - Institutional activity present 🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES SCENARIO 1: FURTHER DECLINE 🔴 (55% Probability) On November 18, 2025, price of XAU/USD expected to decline IF Gold Breaks Below $4,000: This opens door for significant correction! SHORT Setup (Aggressive): Entry: Break below $3,995-$4,000 with volume Targets: TP1: $3,987 📍 (-15 pips from $4,000) TP2: $3,930 📍 (-70 pips) TP3: $3,886 📍 (-114 pips - October low) Stop Loss: $4,032 (Above consolidation) ⚠️ WARNING: This is WITH the trend now - but use caution! SCENARIO 2: SUPPORT BOUNCE 🟢 (35% Probability) IF Gold Holds Above $4,006-$4,020: Buyers defending $4,000-$4,040 support zone - Wyckoff spring confirmation possible LONG Setup (Counter-trend): Entry: $4,006-$4,012 (if bounce confirmed) Targets: TP1: $4,065 📍 (+55 pips) TP2: $4,090 - $4,100 📍 (+90 pips) TP3: $4,120 📍 (+110 pips) Stop Loss: $3,998 (Below $4,000) Risk/Reward: Good 1:2.5+ ratio ✅ SCENARIO 3: RANGE TRADING ⚪ (10% Probability) IF Gold Consolidates Between $4,020-$4,090: Scalping Strategy: Buy: $4,020-$4,030 Sell: $4,080-$4,090 Targets: 30-40 pips SL: Very tight (20 pips) 💎 BEST TRADE SETUPS FOR TODAY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Highly Recommended!) 🎯 WAIT FOR CLEAR SIGNAL! This is a dangerous zone. Setup A - Buy the $4,000 Bounce (Preferred): Wait for price to TOUCH $4,000-$4,008 Look for strong bullish candle (rejection) Entry: $4,010-$4,015 (after confirmation) Target: $4,065 → $4,100 SL: $3,990 Why: Psychological level + High R:R Setup B - Breakdown Short: Wait for CLEAR break below $3,995 Entry: $3,990-$3,995 (after retest) Target: $3,950 → $3,930 SL: $4,020 ⚠️ DO NOT TRADE between $4,030-$4,070! No man's land! 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS WHY GOLD IS FALLING 📉 DXY Recovering - Dollar found support at 99.50 (61.8% Fib), bouncing back Fed Hawkish Tone - Officials signaling cautious approach to rate cuts Risk-On Sentiment - Equities rising, reducing safe-haven demand Government Reopened - Uncertainty removed Profit Taking - After 7% rally two weeks ago BULLISH FACTORS (Long-term) ⬆️ ✅ Analysts still predict gold may reach $4,456-$4,509 by end November ✅ Central banks purchased 634 tonnes YTD (Targeting 750-900) ✅ ETF holdings grew 619 tonnes ($64B) in 2025 ✅ Geopolitical tensions persist ✅ Fed rate cut still possible December (though less certain) BEARISH RISKS (Short-term) ⬇️ ⚠️ DXY Strength - Dollar bouncing from support ⚠️ Technical Breakdown - Triangle pattern failed ⚠️ Momentum Bearish - MACD crossed down ⚠️ $4,000 Break - Would trigger stop losses ⚠️ FOMC Minutes This Week - Could show hawkish Fed 🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: BEARISH SHORT-TERM Analyst Views: Today (Nov 18): Expected to trade $4,000-$4,100 with DOWNSIDE bias This Week: Critical week - FOMC minutes could determine direction Watch $4,000 level - break = $3,930 target Month End: IF $4,000 holds → Recovery to $4,200-$4,300 possible IF $4,000 breaks → Drop to $3,886-$3,930 likely 💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN For DAY TRADERS: ⚡ HIGH RISK Day! $4,000 is THE level - trade the bounce or breakdown Use VERY tight stops (15-20 pips) Take quick profits (don't be greedy) Best time: Wait for NY session clarity For SWING TRADERS: 📊 Critical Decision Point IF $4,000 holds with strong bounce → GO LONG (3-5 day hold) IF $4,000 breaks cleanly → GO SHORT to $3,930 Don't trade in the middle! For LONG-TERM INVESTORS: 💎 Patience Required This could be THE dip to buy Target: $3,950-$4,000 for accumulation Vision: $4,500+ by 2026 Strategy: Dollar-cost average (don't go all-in yet!) 📅 KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK Today (Tuesday): Watch $4,000 level reaction DXY movement crucial Nvidia earnings (affects risk sentiment) Wednesday: FOMC Minutes Release (CRITICAL!) Fed speakers Thursday-Friday: Economic data Weekly close direction important 🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR) Price: $4,024-$4,080 (Bearish) Bias: 🔴 BEARISH (Short-term danger zone) Key Level: $4,000 (Break = Big drop | Hold = Bounce) Best Action: WAIT for $4,000 test, then act Risk Level: EXTREME (Highest of the week!) 🔔 THE $4,000 LEVEL - MAKE OR BREAK! IF GOLD HOLDS ABOVE $4,000: ✅ Bulls still alive ✅ Target recovery to $4,090-$4,120 ✅ Buy the dip opportunity IF GOLD BREAKS BELOW $4,000: ❌ Bears take full control ❌ Target $3,987 → $3,930 → $3,886 ❌ Sell rallies strategy BETWEEN $4,000-$4,090: ⚪ Indecision zone ⚪ Choppy price action ⚪ Wait for breakout! 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Trend: ⚠️ BULLISH (Long-term) but BEARISH (Short-term) Momentum: WEAK - Sellers in control 🔴 Support: TESTING at $4,000-$4,040 🚧 Resistance: STRONG at $4,090-$4,100 🔒 Pattern: Descending triangle breakdown / Bear flag Next Move: Break $4,000 = DROP | Hold $4,000 = BOUNCE ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT - CRITICAL! ✅ Tiny Positions - Risk MAX 0.5-1% (Market dangerous!) ✅ Wide Stops - Give trades room (30-40 pips minimum) ✅ Quick Exits - Lock profits FAST if you get them ✅ Respect $4,000 - This is THE most important level ✅ No Revenge Trading - If stopped out, STEP AWAY 🎯 SWING TRADE SETUPS Setup A - Support Bounce (High Risk/Reward): Entry: $4,000-$4,015 (AFTER bounce confirmation) Target 1: $4,090 (Hold 2-3 days) Target 2: $4,150 (Hold 5-7 days if breaks $4,090) Stop Loss: $3,985 (TIGHT!) Setup B - Breakdown Trade: Entry: $3,985-$3,995 (after confirmed break) Target 1: $3,950 (Hold 1-2 days) Target 2: $3,930 (Hold 3-5 days) Target 3: $3,886 (Hold 1 week) Stop Loss: $4,025 🏆 PROFESSIONAL ANALYSIS SUMMARY Gold is at the MOST CRITICAL JUNCTURE this month. The $4,000 psychological level is being tested after: 3 consecutive days of decline Triangle pattern breakdown DXY finding support and bouncing The Setup: Price trading at $4,023.83 as of 18.11.2025 Expected trading range: $4,000-$4,100 Analysts expecting DECLINE today Most Likely Scenarios: Scenario 1 (55%): Test $4,000 → Break below → Drop to $3,930-$3,950 Scenario 2 (35%): Test $4,000 → Strong bounce → Rally to $4,090-$4,120 Scenario 3 (10%): Chop between $4,020-$4,090 for 1-2 days The Big Picture: This is a CORRECTION within a long-term BULL MARKET. If $4,000 holds, this becomes a great buying opportunity for the move to $4,456-$4,509 by month-end. 💪 TRADING PSYCHOLOGY WARNING THIS IS THE SCARIEST MOMENT! When price tests psychological levels like $4,000, emotions run HIGH Fear makes traders sell at the bottom Greed makes traders buy too early WAIT for confirmation! Don't predict, REACT! 🎓 LESSON: PSYCHOLOGICAL LEVELS Why $4,000 is SO important: Round Number - Easy to remember = many orders cluster here Stop Loss Magnet - Bulls have stops just below it Buy Order Pile - Bulls waiting to buy the dip here Media Attention - "Gold below $4,000!" headlines create action Trading Strategy: Don't trade BEFORE it hits $4,000 Watch HOW it reacts AT $4,000 Trade the REACTION, not the prediction! 🔮 FORECAST Today: Test $4,000 - Reaction determines next move Tomorrow: If $4,000 holds → bounce | If breaks → $3,950 Wednesday: FOMC minutes = BIG volatility End of Week: $4,100+ OR $3,930 (no middle ground likely) Month End: Recovery to $4,200-$4,300 if $4,000 holds 🚨 CRITICAL WARNINGS ⚠️ $4,000 = NUCLEAR LEVEL - Massive volatility expected ⚠️ False Breaks Common - Wait for confirmation ⚠️ Stop Hunt Risk - Price may spike below then recover ⚠️ FOMC Wednesday - Save powder for that volatility ⚠️ Don't Catch Knife - Wait for clear signals 📊 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SUMMARY Critical Support: $4,000 (EVERYTHING depends on this!) Strong Support: $3,987, $3,930, $3,886 Weak Resistance: $4,065, $4,080 Strong Resistance: $4,090-$4,100, $4,120, $4,150 Breakdown Level: $3,995 (Game over for bulls short-term) Breakout Level: $4,100 (Bulls regain control) 📈 DXY CORRELATION Important: DXY found support at 99.50 and is bouncing! DXY up = Gold pressure ✅ (Happening now!) If DXY breaks above 100.30 = More gold downside If DXY fails at 100 = Gold relief rally Watch DXY closely today! ⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER This is the most dangerous trading day this week. Gold at $4,000 support is extremely volatile and unpredictable. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Never risk more than 0.5-1% on any trade today. Use stop losses religiously. False breakouts are common at psychological levels. Wait for clear confirmation before entering trades. The market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading. 📱 Today is CRITICAL! 💬 Watch $4,000 like a hawk! 🔔 Extreme volatility incoming ⚡ Follow updates throughout the day 🙏 Trade safe, not big! #Gold #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #4000Support #CriticalLevel #RiskManagement #FOMC #DayTrading #SwingTrading #MarketAnalysis #PsychologicalLevel #Volatility
TVC:GOLD
by AthensBySahan
Dwon Trend On the 15-minute chart, there is a technically valid short opportunity: the trend is downward, and there’s a logical entry zone around the descending trendline / resistance. Higher timeframe confirmation (1h resistance + 4h neutral-to-bearish RSI) supports the short thesis. Fundamentally, monetary policy divergence (ECB likely to cut more, BOE less so) strengthens the bearish case for EUR/GBP. Conclusion: I lean toward a sell (short) on EUR/GBP using 15-min entries, targeting the support around ~0.8795–0.8805,
Short
by ForexArchitect
EUR/USD Price Outlook – Trade Setup (EUR/USD)📊 Technical Structure TICKMILL:EURUSD EUR/USD is consolidating near 1.1600, retracing from last week’s two-week high at 1.1656. The short-term structure shows the pair trading inside a support zone at 1.1579–1.1586 and beneath a resistance zone at 1.1621–1.1628. The recent break of the rising trendline suggests fading bullish momentum, yet buyers remain active above 1.1580, keeping the pair in a corrective phase rather than a full reversal. A rebound toward the 1.1621–1.1628 resistance zone is likely if 1.1580 continues to hold. However, failure to defend this support would expose downside risk toward 1.1570 and potentially 1.1545. 🎯 Trade Setup 📌 Reversal Scenario (Aggressive)** If price rejects the resistance zone (1.1621–1.1628): Entry (Sell): 1.1621 – 1.1628 Stop Loss: 1.1631 Take Profit: 1.1580 Bias remains mixed but leaning bearish unless the pair sustains above 1.1630. 🌐 Macro Background EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1600, with the U.S. Dollar struggling to extend its recovery. FXStreet notes: “EUR/USD holds retracement near 1.1600 as markets turn cautious ahead of the U.S. NFP release.” 【FXStreet】 Key macro drivers: 🇺🇸 USD Side The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades slightly lower near 99.45, reflecting lack of follow-through buying. Investors are positioning cautiously ahead of Thursday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could reset expectations for Fed policy. Rate-cut expectations continue to fall: → December cut probability drops to 43% (from 62.4% a week ago), according to CME FedWatch. This reduction in dovish pricing limits upside for EUR/USD. 🇪🇺 Eurozone Side A majority of ECB officials maintain that interest rates should remain unchanged, citing balanced risks to inflation and growth. This steady ECB stance offers mild support to the euro, but lacks strong bullish momentum. Overall, EUR/USD remains supported on dips, but upside is capped by soft Eurozone fundamentals and diminishing Fed rate-cut expectations. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: 1.1621 – 1.1628 Support: 1.1586 – 1.1579 Trendline Break Level: 1.1605 Psychological Level: 1.1600 📌 Trade Summary EUR/USD is consolidating above the 1.1580 support zone, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound toward 1.1621–1.1628. However, unless price breaks and holds above the resistance area, the broader bias favours a downside continuation back toward 1.1586 or even 1.1579. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Short
by ATFX_Global
1
Imminent End of the U.S. Statistical Blackout!The prolonged shutdown of the U.S. federal government has had an exceptional impact on the release of some of the country’s most important economic statistics. Indicators such as the employment report (NFP), PCE inflation, or the CPI are the backbone of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and heavily influence financial market volatility. Their delay therefore creates a true statistical “black hole.” Why are these indicators delayed? Two federal agencies have been affected: • the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), responsible for NFP and CPI; • the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which publishes PCE inflation as well as household income and spending data. During the shutdown, these agencies had to suspend the collection, processing, and validation of data. Unlike a simple administrative pause, this disrupts complex statistical pipelines built on surveys of businesses and households. Some data cannot be “caught up” immediately because they depend on strict deadlines, which explains why certain series may be incomplete, revised late, or even canceled. The case of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) The October NFP report — normally released in early November — was entirely blocked. Signals from the BLS suggest that this report may be partially or totally compromised, especially the household survey, which is more difficult to reconstruct. By contrast, the September report, which was also delayed, now has a confirmed publication date: Thursday, November 20, 2025. For the October report, there is still no official date. The most likely estimates point to a possible release in late November or early December, provided the data quality is deemed acceptable. The case of PCE inflation The October PCE inflation figure — scheduled for October 31 — was also halted. The BEA announced it would revise its entire calendar but has not yet provided firm replacement dates. Economists currently expect a publication around November 26, 2025, potentially in a partially “imputed” form (with statistical estimates filling missing data). Market consequences The absence of these key data forces investors and the Fed to navigate blindly. Volatility could remain elevated until the full or partial release of these indicators, which should gradually return to a normal schedule starting in December. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
What will be the next gold trend on November 18th?1. Trend and Trend Lines Prices are trading below a major descending trend line. → The overall trend remains down. The long-term ascending trend line (red) has already broken out, signaling weakening buying pressure and increased downward pressure. 2. Key Resistance 4.103 – 4.105: Strong resistance zone where the Fibonacci (0.618–0.5), horizontal resistance, and EMA overlap. → Selling is likely to reassert itself in this price range. 3. Key Support 3.932 – 3.940: This is the strongest support zone, overlapping the Fibonacci extension at 2.618. This is an important low point in the bearish structure. 4. Price Scenario If prices fail to retest the resistance at 4.103, → A continued decline along the downward trend is likely. The next target is around 3.932 – 3.950. Summary Major Trend: Downward Strong Resistance: 4.103 – 4.105 Target Support: 3.932 – 3.950 Structure: Trendline Break + Fibo Extension → Prefer Downward Scenario BUY GOLD: 3932 – 3930 Stop Loss: 3922 Take Profit: 100–300–500 pips SELL SCALP GOLD: 4064 – 4066 Stop Loss: 4073 Take Profit: 100–300–500 pips SELL GOLD: 4103 – 4105 Stop Loss: 4115 Take Profit: 100–300–500 pips
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by AstronautPioneer
Gold vs Silver vs Bitcoin vs S&P 500 vs Gold Miners (EPGFX) This chart provides a detailed comparison of the price performance of Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), the S&P 500 (SPY), and Gold Mining Companies (represented by Peter Schiff’s gold miner fund EPGFX) over the past year. Track the performance of these key assets to understand how precious metals, cryptocurrencies, stock market indices, and gold mining funds have fared over recent months. Over the last 12 months, gold miners (EPGFX) have outperformed all other assets, closely followed by silver (XAG/USD) gold itself (XAU/USD). Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has seen a modest decline, while the S&P 500 (SPY) has experienced moderate growth.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by jungletreefrog