Bullish Analysis – XAU/USD (15M) SMC🇺🇸 BREAKDOWN
After the market swept all the sell-side liquidity below the previous lows, it became clear that institutions were accumulating longs at discounted prices. Right after that sweep, we got a clean bullish ChoCH, signaling the first shift in intent.
Then price left an FVG unmitigated, and as usual, the market created a manipulative bearish BOS—a classic fake-out designed to induce shorts and grab more liquidity before moving in the real direction. That manipulation brings price directly into the 15M Order Block, which aligns with a clean support area.
My entry is positioned at 4,039, exactly where I expect the institutional reaction:
• 15M OB
• Support zone
• Liquidity sweep
• Clear rejection
From that point, I’m expecting the typical sequence:
fake out → rejection → lower-timeframe confirmation → bullish expansion.
For exits, I’m targeting two key zones:
• TP1 at 4,073 for the first FVG mitigation and liquidity grab.
• TP2 at 4,101, a level with higher-timeframe inefficiencies waiting to be filled.
The setup gives me an R/R of 1:3, totally professional and risk-controlled.
This analysis follows the classic institutional flow:
liquidity → manipulation → return to origin → bullish continuation.
If I get a bullish BOS on 1M or 5M, this becomes an A+ setup.
GOOD LUCK TRADERS 🦾😎🖤
Fundamental Analysis
Have the Fib gods spoken??This bounce off the 78.6 could be the confirmation we've been waiting for. Weak hands and over-leverage have been shaken out. More crypto-positive legislation is set to become law, global M2 expansion continues and rate cuts are on the horizon. We're could be on our way to a very happy new year. Keep your fingers crossed!
GOLD MARKET OVERVIEWAfter last week's sell mitigating 3990's, we saw gold make a bullish pullback up till 4060's before the market closed on friday. This weekm gold opens with nearish sentimens as gold 4040's inti currently ranges between 4040's with $20 decline in price from last weeks close.
4030 is a vital zone and if it breaks we may go lower up tilll 4010's.
Higher time frame bullish bias still valid.
Gold market{should bullish momentum fail to stabilise}Gold opens the week in the Asian session extending last week’s imbalance sweep through 4046/oz. Should bullish momentum fail to stabilize, 3890 remains a potential downside level to be revisited. follow for more insights , comment and boost idea .
Gold's bullish and bearish trends were perfectly timed this weekGold Technical Analysis: Gold prices have been fluctuating between 4000 and 4110 in recent days, lacking a clear direction. This volatile market requires both caution and opportunity searching. Neither long nor short positions are inherently wrong; the key is precise entry points. Based on this week's closing price, gold reached a high of 4101 before retracing and closing at 4065. Next week, continue to monitor the range-bound movement. The monthly chart for gold may close with a doji, and next week will likely see continued range-bound trading. The weekly chart also shows a doji, indicating no clear direction. While the overall trend remains bullish, the pullback is not yet complete. Looking at the weekly chart alone, next week we temporarily recommend buying low and selling high within the 4110-4020 range until it is broken. A break above this range could lead to 4130-4150 or even 4200, while a break below could target 4000-3980. Strong support is at 3930, with an extreme low around 3886. The daily chart closed with a doji on Friday, so continue with a range-bound trading strategy on Monday.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, it is currently consolidating near the end of a triangle pattern. Once it breaks out effectively, there is an estimated profit potential of nearly $250. Before the breakout, operate within the trading range. Go long near the lower edge of the range around 4020 and go short near the upper edge around 4110. Go short a little earlier, around 4100. On the hourly chart, the moving averages are crossing upwards, indicating a bullish alignment. Currently, 4020 is a key short-term support level. If it holds, it will likely remain within the range. A break below this level could see strong support at the 4000 mark. The 4110 level also presents significant resistance; several attempts to break through have failed. However, this level is expected to gradually narrow over time. The longer the consolidation period, the stronger the subsequent breakout. The fundamentals of the bull market remain unchanged, and there is still room for further upward movement. In summary, the recommended trading strategy for gold is to primarily buy on dips and secondarily sell on rallies. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is around 4100-4110, while the key support level is around 4020-4000. Traders must follow the market closely, manage their positions carefully, and strictly adhere to stop-loss orders. Avoid holding losing positions. For specific trading instructions, please refer to the bottom notifications.
BTC long for THE LEAPLong btc and eth here, esp eth, at max pain social sentiment, but besides that, I think mean revision is the name of the game in the start of a bull market, with us approaching elections, and with USDT market cap dominance % near last bull run highs, which would be a low level, thus allowing printing pressure to subside, launching btc upwards. I think the lowest we can go here on btc would be 64k/65k and i'd expect a green buy signal to show up if we push that low, if not we move sideways with chop till we can get a volatile move that resets and gives us a buy signal. I'm early cause I don't think it will be easily timed. GOOD LUCK!
NQ bottom along with tech and crypto.New ATH coming after the recovery, I think this is the bottom of this down move, I don't think we rocket straight back up to ATH but its a great bet to add Long here. You really only get a move like this once every 5 years.
I think we see Crypto continue to move up, lots of good projects are oversold in the ALT world and lots of good projects are still carrying to torch. Showing strength amongst the weakness.
I think HYPE goes on to lead the way of finance onchain. They are only getting started.
I think S / Sonic goes on to be leader of the next defi summer 2.0.
(will make a post about them soon)
So I'm betting on the fastest horses and calling a decent spot to place bets on the overall condition of the market and i think CRYPTOCAP:BTC leads that race.
HG INFRAHG Infra Engineering Ltd. (currently trading near ₹1,775.40) – Overview HG Infra Engineering Ltd., headquartered in Jaipur, is a leading infrastructure construction company specializing in roads, highways, bridges, flyovers, metro rail, and civil construction projects. Incorporated in 2003, the company has established itself as a key EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) player in India’s transport infrastructure sector. It also undertakes HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) and BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) projects, serving NHAI, state governments, and private developers.
FY22–FY25 Snapshot • Sales – ₹3,750 Cr → ₹4,200 Cr → ₹4,650 Cr → ₹5,200 Cr Growth driven by strong order inflows from NHAI and state highway projects
• Net Profit – ₹320 Cr → ₹360 Cr → ₹400 Cr → ₹450 Cr Earnings supported by scale, execution efficiency, and margin improvement
• Operating Performance – Strong → Strong → Very Strong → Very Strong EBITDA margins improving with high-value EPC contracts and disciplined project execution
• Dividend Yield (%) – 0.60% → 0.65% → 0.70% → 0.75% Consistent payouts alongside reinvestment into capacity and equipment
• Equity Capital – ₹66 Cr (constant) Promoter-led governance with no dilution
• Total Debt – ₹1,050 Cr → ₹980 Cr → ₹920 Cr → ₹860 Cr Gradual deleveraging supported by strong operating cash flows and project receivables
• Fixed Assets – ₹1,200 Cr → ₹1,250 Cr → ₹1,300 Cr → ₹1,350 Cr Capex focused on construction equipment, technology upgrades, and regional expansion
Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends Promoter holding ~74% FIIs/DIIs actively invested due to strong infra demand visibility and government-backed highway expansion Public float ~26%, with delivery volumes reflecting long-term positioning by infra-focused funds
Business Growth Verdict HG Infra is scaling across roads, highways, and metro projects with strong government-backed demand Margins improving via efficient execution and high-value EPC contracts Debt is declining steadily with strong operating cash flows Capex supports long-term competitiveness in infra and transport construction
Management Highlights • FY25: Executed large NHAI highway contracts; expanded metro and flyover portfolio • Sustainability: Focus on green construction practices and compliance with ESG standards • Digital: Adoption of project management software and automation for faster execution • FY26 Outlook: 12–14% revenue growth, PAT expected to cross ₹500 Cr
Final Investment Verdict HG Infra Engineering Ltd. offers a mid-cap infrastructure story built on strong order book, government-backed demand, and execution efficiency. Its improving profitability, disciplined capital structure, and expanding client base make it suitable for accumulation by investors seeking exposure to India’s transport infrastructure and highway expansion theme. With strong execution and regional presence, HG Infra remains a durable compounder in the infra space.
AUDCAD LONG 110+ PIPSThe Australian macroeconomic data appears to be quite strong, while the Canadian macroeconomic data is weak but still acceptable. The price range is between 0.92148 and 0.90664. I can identify the support and resistance zones, as well as the third touch of the trend-based support level.
Conflicting Geopolitical Signals Hold Gold in ConsolidationGold’s safe-haven appeal has always been closely tied to geopolitical risks, and this week’s global developments show a clear split in market sentiment. On one side, early signs of potential peace in the Russia–Ukraine conflict have slightly reduced safe-haven demand. On the other, escalating tensions in the Middle East are injecting fresh uncertainty into the market. This “push-and-pull” dynamic has kept gold in a delicate state of short-term stabilization.
Looking ahead, gold’s direction will largely depend on how these events evolve:
If Russia–Ukraine negotiations progress smoothly, safe-haven flows may ease further, putting short-term downward pressure on gold.
If the talks break down, safe-haven buying could quickly return, potentially driving prices higher.
If Middle East tensions worsen, disruptions to global energy supplies may lift inflation expectations, indirectly supporting gold.
On the policy front, Williams's remarks led the market to raise its expectations for a rate cut again, but hawkish officials also emphasized the need to maintain current interest rates for some time, and further signals need to be monitored.
Meanwhile, if equity markets continue rising on stronger risk appetite, capital could shift away from gold, adding some downside pressure. Weak physical gold demand across major Asian markets last week has also limited gold’s rebound potential. With Thanksgiving approaching, volatility may diminish unless major news breaks, keeping gold largely range-bound.
Technically, on the 1H and 2H charts, gold remains suppressed by the MA10. The recent large bearish candle cutting through short-term moving averages reflects a short-term bearish setup. Key support lies at the 4020–4000 zone, while resistance sits at 4069–4076, followed by the 4100 level.
Bitcoin: A Brutally Honest AutopsyBitcoin was born in early 2009 as a middle finger to central banks and endless money-printing. Sixteen years later it is the most successful speculative asset in history, yet almost everything the original cypherpunks dreamed of has either been abandoned or turned into its opposite. Here is the unfiltered truth – no slogans, no cope, no marketing.
1. The flywheel is real – and it runs on U.S. government debt
Today the majority of new Bitcoin demand does not come from revolutionaries or retail believers. It comes from fresh Tether (USDT) that is printed the moment real dollars arrive at Tether’s bank accounts. Those dollars are immediately used to buy U.S. Treasuries. In 2025 Tether holds roughly $120–130 billion in Treasuries – more than many sovereign nations.
The loop is perfect: global hot money → Tether → U.S. debt → new USDT → Bitcoin → higher price → more hot money.
Bitcoin, the asset created to end fiat debasement, is now one of the largest indirect buyers of the very debt it was supposed to make obsolete.
2. Tether is no longer fractional – it is “legally” backed… by the same debt
Until 2021 Tether printed with smoke and mirrors and paid fines for it. Since 2022 it is technically fully backed 1:1, almost entirely by U.S. Treasuries and repo agreements. It has become the biggest unregulated shadow purchaser of American government debt on the planet.
3. Bitcoin is not digital gold – it is leveraged Nasdaq
Every real crisis since 2020 has proven it:March 2020: gold +15 %, Bitcoin –65 % in 48 hours
2022 bear market: gold +20 %, Bitcoin –77 %
30-day correlation with Nasdaq 100 in 2025: ~0.8
Correlation with gold: ~0.2
In a true 1929-style depression Bitcoin will crash together with every other risk asset. Anyone waiting for it to “decouple and moon” while stocks burn will be painfully disappointed.
4. In a survival crisis everything is for sale – including your precious sats
When people are hungry they sell whatever can be turned into food, rent or electricity. Gold, stocks, Rolexes, kidneys – and yes, Bitcoin. The coming crash will not be stopped by ideology. Only the last 1–3 million die-hard self-custody holders (or people in collapsing economies who literally have no alternative) will refuse to sell. Everyone else will dump.
5. Quantum computers are the only true kill switch
Current estimates place a dangerous quantum breakthrough somewhere between 2030 and 2040. When (not if) a machine can run Shor’s algorithm at scale, every Bitcoin address that has ever spent from becomes vulnerable. A clean migration to quantum-resistant signatures is possible in theory, but coordinating the most stubborn community in finance during a live attack is another story. By the time quantum arrives, multiple quantum-safe chains will already exist and be battle-tested. Bitcoin may survive as a legacy network, but it will probably lose the crown.
6. Bitcoin already failed as everyday money – and that’s fine
Volatility makes it useless for buying bread. Lightning Network helps on the margins, but the experiment of “peer-to-peer electronic cash” is over. What remains is the best tool ever created to:move value across borders without permissionhide wealth from collapsing currencies and capital controls
speculate with extreme leverage
In Nigeria, Turkey, Argentina, Lebanon, Venezuela and sanctioned Russia, adoption is not driven by white papers. It is driven by survival.
7. The final verdict
Bitcoin is neither immortal nor destined to zero.
Its price can crash 95 % and still never die because a few hundred thousand (or a few million) maniacs will refuse to sell at any price.
But it is no longer the future of money in the way its earliest believers imagined.
It is a spectacular, rebellious, flawed, revolutionary speculative asset that turned the original dream upside down and made a lot of people rich along the way.
When quantum winter finally comes, something newer and quantum-resistant will very likely take the throne. Bitcoin will then become what gold is today: the old king – respected, still valuable, but no longer the daily currency of the world.That is not failure.
That is simply the cycle of all revolutionary technologies.–
Written from a Greek skeptic in November 2025.
BTC/USDT 1W chart review📉 1. Market structure – trend and break
• The chart shows a black upward trend line that has led the market since 2023.
• This line has been clearly broken, which means:
✔ weakening of the structure
✔ the first serious threat to the upward trend
✔ possible move towards lower support levels
A breakout of the weekly trendline usually ends a medium-term upward trend.
⸻
📉 2. Current price
BTC is around USDT 87,770 and the weekly candle is heavily bearish.
This means that buyers do not react to the first support.
⸻
🟥 3. Most important support levels
1) 92,086 USDT – local resistance zone (previously support)
• Price has broken this support from above → now acts as resistance.
• To return to growth, BTC would have to close the week above this zone.
2) 84,583 USDT – first major support
• Price is just above the zone.
• If this fails → there will be an increased chance of continued declines.
3) 74,324 USDT – key macro support (MAIN LEVEL)
This is the most important level of the chart.
• This is the level where demand must occur if BTC is to maintain its long-term structure.
• Breaking this barrier will open the way to declines even to around 60-65k.
⸻
🟩 4. Resistance levels
1) USDT 92,086
Closest resistance – key to recovery.
2) USDT 100,794
Big weekly resistance that stopped the market earlier.
Only a breakout → continuation of the bull market.
⸻
📊 5. Stochastic (week) – very important
At the bottom you can see Stochastic sliding down, almost at the value of 0-20 (oversold).
Interpretation:
• There is no buy signal yet because the lines have not turned upwards.
• Weekly momentum is still down, so the pressure on support continues.
📈 7. Scenarios
Bullish (less likely for now)
1. Maintaining 84.5k
2. Stochastic weekly turns upwards
3. Price returns above 92k
➡️ Target: 100.7k
Bearish (more likely)
1. Breakthrough 84.5k
2. Retest from the bottom
3. Drop to 74.3k
➡️ If 74k breaks → 65-68k
November 24 - November 28 2025I have recently identified an area of weakness in my trading style. Too often I find myself front-running trades by setting my bias based on where I think my Macro indicators are headed vs where they are positioned currently. Macro moves much slower than equities, so I should instead be looking for volatility setups that align with the current macro bias, and wait for confirmation. No longer should I try to catch the bottom or top, and instead should try to “ride the wave” as a surfer would, with the best entry being an inefficiency while the move is already underway. As a result, I think these Ideas should contain less speculative commentary and instead be more of a snapshot of where things are at heading into the new week, and for my bias to only shift when changes have already presented themselves.
1. Macro
Here, I want to make the point of what time of regime the market is currently in. The financial media is trying to spin the recent sell off as due to inflationary fears and suggestions that the AI bubble has burst. The latter point is debatable so I will not digress into that topic here, however based on what I am seeing, the inflation argument is the opposite of what the evidence shows, and instead the market is seeing lower inflation/growth, sparking fears (for now) that AI stock bets are misaligned with current macroeconomic factors, especially considering that political and trade turbulence that caused the Q1 crash are still present.
Right now, what is important to take away from this is that the dollar is catching a FX bid but is not rallying as it would if institutions were seeking it as a “safe haven”. The same can be said for TVC:GOLD , where rising real yields and falling inflation expectations have kept it flat. The hedge is still there but the buyers and sellers are currently in balance at this price level. $MOVE/VIX and the individual charts show what we already know: equities and bonds have been volatile, but equities significantly more as a proportion to the former. Next, the TVC:US10 and $US10/DXY provide further confirmation that treasuries are not seeing a “safe haven” rally either. TVC:US02Y fell at the end of last week and while the 5Y real yield ( TVC:US05Y -T5YIE) is above average, it will be important to see if it continues to weaken or will goes on to make higher highs, as it will set the tone for the rest of the Macro regime.
Going back to my point about falling inflation expectations being the underlying cause of what is pushing up real yields, the 5Y breakeven chart FRED:T5YIE shows that the downtrend in inflation expectations that began 10/31 has coincided with volatility pressure.
My commodity index (avg of corn, cotton, copper, and aluminum vs DXY) and NYMEX:CL1! also contradict the argument that inflation is making a comeback. Falling commodities i this environment provides further confirmation that growth is stalling.
My current assessment is that the market is risk-off, but the risk aversion is concentrated in equities due to growth concerns. While rate cuts can help boost growth, the rate cut-bet is not what is driving the market. The market needs evidence that growth is increasing in order to snap out of its rut.
2. FX
On FX based on what I currently see (no speculation), the market is risk-off - so the market is seeking safety/liquidity. TVC:DXY has outperformed the other currency indices this month, while US 2Y bond yields are moving lower compared to other “funding” countries. This signals that USD is in fact acting as a safe-haven and the market is expecting lower rates in the US in the future.
The way I’m seeing this tie back into Macro is that the market is expecting lower nominal yields in the near future and is seeking liquidity in USD. The Fed will likely cut into lower growth, but the market will still be risk-averse if falling growth/inflation outpaces falling nominal yields (which could cause real yields FRED:DFII10 to continue rising).
3.Risk
Not much to add here. Pressure continues in private-credit, which is high-risk and highly leveraged. This is definitely a driver of the sell off which does not make the headlines often. IMO private credit could one day act as a major accelerator for market turmoil if bankruptcies are increasing. With rates set to come down and growth declining, this could push private credit to seek higher yields from even riskier bets. $XLK/XLP illustrates the risk-off activity we have been seeing.
4. Bias
Since I’m trying to focus these Ideas on Macro and FX analysis, I’ll have more to say about my short-term analysis in Minds. What I am seeing here on the CME_MINI:NQ1! 1h Renko chart with monthly VWAP overlaid is that the market is very weak in November, as we already know. This pattern seems reminiscent of December 2024. With the Macro picture looking so bad for growth, I think a rise back to ATH would require a major VIX compression.
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Conclusion: It is important to understand what is driving sentiment in the market, and what I have outlined here shows that it is not rising inflation, as some would like to make us believe. Instead, we should expect weak growth to continue and the Fed to cut interest rates to drive up demand. This creates poor conditions for high-growth bets on tech/AI, especially if disinflation outpaces nominal yields falling. If the Macro/FX/Credit structure stays the same this week, I will only treat daily short-volatility (bullish) positioning to be part of a larger reversion higher (temporary). Long volatility (bearish) days that align with current macro conditions (also bearish for equities), will provide the most profitable trading opportunities.
USDCHF: Bullish CRT CycleThe Narrative: The market has completed the accumulation phase at the lows. We have a confirmed CRTL + TS (Turtle Soup) at 0.80417. This sweep of the lows indicates that sell-side liquidity has been harvested, and the "fuel" for the move up has been gathered.
The Technical Setup:
1. The Trap (Turtle Soup): Price stabbed into the Range Low (CRTL) and reversed. In CRT, this "Turtle Soup" creates a false breakdown to trap sellers. "Turtle soup = explosive moves!".
2. The Entry Zone (FVG): After the initial bounce, price created a Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). I am waiting for a retracement into this zone (marked in grey). This allows us to enter at a "Discount" price alongside smart money before the expansion continues.
3. The Draw on Liquidity (Target): The market naturally seeks to rotate from range low to range high. Our target is the CRTH (Candle Range Theory High) at the top of the structure.
Execution Plan:
WAIT: For price to dip into the FVG (approx. 0.80600).
TRIGGER: Watch for a Bullish Model #1 confirmation inside the FVG.
TARGET: The unmitigated highs at CRTH.
XAUUSD: Bearish CRT Setup (Turtle Soup + FVG Entry)The Narrative: Gold has successfully completed the "Manipulation" phase of the CRT cycle. We have a confirmed CRTH + TS (Turtle Soup) at the highs, where price swept liquidity and rejected. This signals that the high is likely in and smart money is positioning for a reversal "Turtle soup = explosive moves!".
The Technical Setup:
1. The Trap (Turtle Soup): The move above the previous high (CRTH) was a classic Turtle Soup designed to trap breakout buyers and stop out early sellers. This manipulation creates the fuel needed for the move down.
2. The Inducement ($$$): We have left clean sell-side liquidity ($$$) below the recent consolidation. This internal liquidity acts as a magnet for price to "gather" orders.
3. The Entry Zone (FVG): I am waiting for a retracement into the Bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap). This aligns with the CRT concept of selling at "Premium" pricing inside the imbalance. When a setup appears with an FVG, it becomes even more powerful.
Execution Plan:
WAIT: For price to trade back up into the dark grey FVG box.
TRIGGER: Watch for a Bearish Model #1 or rejection candle inside the FVG (a strong bearish close confirming the reversal).
TARGET: The CRTL (Candle Range Theory Low) at 4,022.53.
"Before you trade a pattern, learn the candle.". Wait for the close to confirm the entry.
📉 Trade safe!
EURUSD: SMT Divergence into Kiss of Death (KOD) SetupEURUSD: SMT Divergence into Kiss of Death (KOD) Setup ☠️
We are currently witnessing a textbook Smart Money trap unfolding on the 4H timeframe. While retail traders are chasing the breakdown at the lows, the CRT (Candle Range Theory) framework tells a different story.
The "Why" – Technical Confluences:
1. Bullish SMT Divergence: We have a confirmed SMT (Smart Money Technique) signal at the recent lows.
EURUSD made a Lower Low (sweeping liquidity).
DXY failed to make a Higher High (making a Lower High instead). This divergence indicates that the Dollar is weaker than it appears, providing the immediate fuel for a retracement upward.
2. Turtle Soup (Liquidity Sweep): Price has swept the internal range liquidity at the lows. In CRT, this "Turtle Soup" is the fuel required to drive price back up into premium levels.
3. The Magnet (Fair Value Gap): Price is now drawn toward the Bearish FVG (red box) above. This imbalance acts as a magnet, pulling price from a "Discount" to a "Premium" pricing level before the trend can resume.
The Game Plan:
I am not buying this rally. Instead, I am waiting for the Kiss of Death (KOD) pattern to form inside the FVG. This pattern acts as the market's final trap to entice early buyers before the real move down begins.
WAIT: Let price trade up into the FVG box.
TRIGGER: Watch for a Bearish Model #1 reversal inside the zone (a stab into the high followed by a strong bearish close) .
EXECUTION: Enter on the confirmation of the breakdown from the KOD/FVG confluence.
TARGET: The ultimate liquidity run toward 1.14020.
As the saying goes: "Every entry is an exit, and every exit is an entry.". Let the smart money provide the liquidity for our short.
📉 Trade safe and wait for the close!
Greetings,
MrYounity
Forex: Weekly Review Overall market sentiment was, at best, 'choppy' during the week starting Monday 17 November.
A continuation of recent themes (AI overvaluation concerns / hawkish FED repricing) ensured an underlying tentativiity throughout the week and any positivity was short lived (NVIDEA earnings / GOOGLE positivity). Even the return of NFP, with a headline beat, ultimately proved negative as a December FED rate cut diminished to 30%.
All in all, it's a difficult environment, correlations have broken down, particularly the JPY, which struggled throughout the week thanks to the government stimulus. And It currently appears the BOJ don't have rate hike plans until spring 2026. Which brings intervention chatter to the fore. It's likely the BOJ will synchronise intervention with 'soft' US data. And once the BOJ do intervene, it will ultimately be a 'short JPY opportunity'. In the meantime 'verbal intervention threats' (jawboning) will be a 'risk' to any short JPY trades.
The AUD continues to under perform its fundamentals, weighed down by the tepid environment. And the run of soft UK data continues, the GBP remains remarkably resilient. All eyes are on the upcoming UK budget.
On Friday, we did get a FED twist, against the grain, New York FED president WILLIAMS mooted a near term rate cut. There is a theory this was a coordinated speech, lining up a December cut, appeasing the market and swinging the FED RATE MONITOR back towards a December cut. Whether it will prove to be a short lived 'relief bounce', only time will tell. The sooner we get a run of 'real time' US data, the better.
I begin the new week without a clear bias, I'll be reading headlines and watching the VIX in an attempt to guage how serious the market is one way or the other.
On a personal note, it was a week I found difficult to form a solid conviction, only one trade. And it was a particularly speculative AUD CHF short, when I felt the chart was going to roll over. The trade stopped out quite quickly during one of those brief periods of positivity. I'm currently envisioning a continuation of only one or two trades per week and I'm content to slightly up my risk percentage in an attempt to make up the numbers.
Let's see what the new week brings.
BTC 71,689.50 — The Capital Sector. Price Slice. 23.11.2025 Capital Sector. Price Slice. Dated 23.11.2025
74,715.11 USD — not yet reached as of publication.
71,689.50 USD — not yet reached as of publication.
Esteemed international community,
I demand your unequivocal attention: as the sole Architect of the Capital Sector and originator of the Price Slice methodology, I hereby attach to this publication documentary evidence confirming the integrity of my analytical architecture.
On 16.10.2025 , I formally designated the sector with a Price Slice at 71,689.50 USD .
Original screenshot:
TradingView publication:
Across global timeframes, we observe the instrument’s deliberate inclination toward retesting the specified level —not a coincidence, but a structural imperative.
All prices I publish represent capital’s intent , not speculative hypotheses.
Until the instrument physically touches these levels on their respective timeframes, these precisely carved and calculated values remain absolute . Each price carries its own temporal projection—disregard of this principle leads to analytical collapse.
Study the logic of my work:
Institutional capital does not follow charts—it draws them.
It fabricates deceptive candles tailored to your indicators, feeding you illusions.
I, in turn, reveal to you the pre factum method —analysis of the future before it manifests.
The question is not where price is heading .
The question is which Price Slice to select within the context of the global trend .
The Map of Unexecuted Prices is your strategic instrument. Deploy it with precision.
English is not my native language. I formally apologize for any stylistic imperfections—yet I emphasize: the essence of my analytics remains unaltered across any translation. It is as immutable as market structure itself.
Could this week’s RBNZ cut mark the peak in AUD/NZD? Is it too early to call the Aussie dollar peaking against the New Zealand dollar? Several analysts suggesting the AUD/NZD rally is losing momentum ahead of this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision.
Markets expect the RBNZ to deliver a 25-basis-point cut, taking the Official Cash Rate to 2.25%.
Strategists at Bank of New Zealand and National Australia Bank say the currency pair, which recently traded near decade-high levels, may start to retreat toward 1.14 if the RBNZ indicates it is close to ending its easing cycle.
Technical signals could be reinforcing the idea that AUD/NZD may be nearing a turning point. A bearish candlestick resembling a shooting star formed on 13 November, a pattern often associated with reversals after extended uptrends.
Still, not all factors favour the kiwi. Australia maintains a sizable rate advantage over New Zealand
Ergo finally pumpsERG's long downtrend to find the base ground changes right now to the (very possibly) long uptrend which will finish in same times when BTC will finally fall to 47k-48k during end of its cycle. Next cycle Ergo can go even more, because it's ecosystem is much more advanced than Litecoin's one, which is currently about 75 times higher. So, i would expect x100 growth in the future for ERG/USDT pair.






















