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Fundamental Analysis

EURUSD: SMT Divergence into Kiss of Death (KOD) SetupEURUSD: SMT Divergence into Kiss of Death (KOD) Setup ☠️ We are currently witnessing a textbook Smart Money trap unfolding on the 4H timeframe. While retail traders are chasing the breakdown at the lows, the CRT (Candle Range Theory) framework tells a different story. The "Why" – Technical Confluences: 1. Bullish SMT Divergence: We have a confirmed SMT (Smart Money Technique) signal at the recent lows. EURUSD made a Lower Low (sweeping liquidity). DXY failed to make a Higher High (making a Lower High instead). This divergence indicates that the Dollar is weaker than it appears, providing the immediate fuel for a retracement upward. 2. Turtle Soup (Liquidity Sweep): Price has swept the internal range liquidity at the lows. In CRT, this "Turtle Soup" is the fuel required to drive price back up into premium levels. 3. The Magnet (Fair Value Gap): Price is now drawn toward the Bearish FVG (red box) above. This imbalance acts as a magnet, pulling price from a "Discount" to a "Premium" pricing level before the trend can resume. The Game Plan: I am not buying this rally. Instead, I am waiting for the Kiss of Death (KOD) pattern to form inside the FVG. This pattern acts as the market's final trap to entice early buyers before the real move down begins. WAIT: Let price trade up into the FVG box. TRIGGER: Watch for a Bearish Model #1 reversal inside the zone (a stab into the high followed by a strong bearish close) . EXECUTION: Enter on the confirmation of the breakdown from the KOD/FVG confluence. TARGET: The ultimate liquidity run toward 1.14020. As the saying goes: "Every entry is an exit, and every exit is an entry.". Let the smart money provide the liquidity for our short. 📉 Trade safe and wait for the close! Greetings, MrYounity
Short
by MrYounity
1
Forex: Weekly Review Overall market sentiment was, at best, 'choppy' during the week starting Monday 17 November. A continuation of recent themes (AI overvaluation concerns / hawkish FED repricing) ensured an underlying tentativiity throughout the week and any positivity was short lived (NVIDEA earnings / GOOGLE positivity). Even the return of NFP, with a headline beat, ultimately proved negative as a December FED rate cut diminished to 30%. All in all, it's a difficult environment, correlations have broken down, particularly the JPY, which struggled throughout the week thanks to the government stimulus. And It currently appears the BOJ don't have rate hike plans until spring 2026. Which brings intervention chatter to the fore. It's likely the BOJ will synchronise intervention with 'soft' US data. And once the BOJ do intervene, it will ultimately be a 'short JPY opportunity'. In the meantime 'verbal intervention threats' (jawboning) will be a 'risk' to any short JPY trades. The AUD continues to under perform its fundamentals, weighed down by the tepid environment. And the run of soft UK data continues, the GBP remains remarkably resilient. All eyes are on the upcoming UK budget. On Friday, we did get a FED twist, against the grain, New York FED president WILLIAMS mooted a near term rate cut. There is a theory this was a coordinated speech, lining up a December cut, appeasing the market and swinging the FED RATE MONITOR back towards a December cut. Whether it will prove to be a short lived 'relief bounce', only time will tell. The sooner we get a run of 'real time' US data, the better. I begin the new week without a clear bias, I'll be reading headlines and watching the VIX in an attempt to guage how serious the market is one way or the other. On a personal note, it was a week I found difficult to form a solid conviction, only one trade. And it was a particularly speculative AUD CHF short, when I felt the chart was going to roll over. The trade stopped out quite quickly during one of those brief periods of positivity. I'm currently envisioning a continuation of only one or two trades per week and I'm content to slightly up my risk percentage in an attempt to make up the numbers. Let's see what the new week brings.
by johnelfedforexblog
1
BTC 71,689.50 — The Capital Sector. Price Slice. 23.11.2025 Capital Sector. Price Slice. Dated 23.11.2025 74,715.11 USD — not yet reached as of publication. 71,689.50 USD — not yet reached as of publication. Esteemed international community, I demand your unequivocal attention: as the sole Architect of the Capital Sector and originator of the Price Slice methodology, I hereby attach to this publication documentary evidence confirming the integrity of my analytical architecture. On 16.10.2025 , I formally designated the sector with a Price Slice at 71,689.50 USD . Original screenshot: TradingView publication: Across global timeframes, we observe the instrument’s deliberate inclination toward retesting the specified level —not a coincidence, but a structural imperative. All prices I publish represent capital’s intent , not speculative hypotheses. Until the instrument physically touches these levels on their respective timeframes, these precisely carved and calculated values remain absolute . Each price carries its own temporal projection—disregard of this principle leads to analytical collapse. Study the logic of my work: Institutional capital does not follow charts—it draws them. It fabricates deceptive candles tailored to your indicators, feeding you illusions. I, in turn, reveal to you the pre factum method —analysis of the future before it manifests. The question is not where price is heading . The question is which Price Slice to select within the context of the global trend . The Map of Unexecuted Prices is your strategic instrument. Deploy it with precision. English is not my native language. I formally apologize for any stylistic imperfections—yet I emphasize: the essence of my analytics remains unaltered across any translation. It is as immutable as market structure itself.
Short
by Bolzen_Market_Institute
1
Could this week’s RBNZ cut mark the peak in AUD/NZD? Is it too early to call the Aussie dollar peaking against the New Zealand dollar? Several analysts suggesting the AUD/NZD rally is losing momentum ahead of this week’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision. Markets expect the RBNZ to deliver a 25-basis-point cut, taking the Official Cash Rate to 2.25%. Strategists at Bank of New Zealand and National Australia Bank say the currency pair, which recently traded near decade-high levels, may start to retreat toward 1.14 if the RBNZ indicates it is close to ending its easing cycle. Technical signals could be reinforcing the idea that AUD/NZD may be nearing a turning point. A bearish candlestick resembling a shooting star formed on 13 November, a pattern often associated with reversals after extended uptrends. Still, not all factors favour the kiwi. Australia maintains a sizable rate advantage over New Zealand
by BlackBull Markets
1
Where It Started — Retail Never Heard the MSCI Whispers⚡️ Where It Started — The Perpetual Offering Nobody Took Seriously (MSCI Was Only Whispers Back Then) 🌐 Referenced Tweet (Announcement of the Perpetual Preferred Offering): x.com ⸻ ⚡️ The Moment No One Realized Was the Start When this perpetual preferred offering was announced, retail shrugged it off. But this tweet was the first real signal that something bigger was shifting beneath the surface. At that moment: • The MSCI exclusion risk was only industry whispers • Retail had zero clue • Macro liquidity was tightening • Crypto-heavy balance sheets were getting risky • Companies were quietly positioning early This offering wasn’t loud. It wasn’t marketed as defensive. But it was — and now the charts expose exactly what they were preparing for. ⸻ 📉 MSTR Weekly (June ’25 → Now) • Peak near $543 • Now near $374 • Low of $166 • Multi-month distribution • Slow, steady derisking — NOT a panic crash This is exactly what happens when institutional flows dry up slowly after classification risk rises. Retail didn’t see it. The chart did. ⸻ 📉 BTC Weekly (June ’25 → Now) • High: $126K • Current: $104K • Low: $74.5K • Lost upward trendline • Not a blow-off — a slow liquidity fade Again, the signature of structural deweighting. Not fear. Not news. Flows. ⸻ ⚡️ The Link to MSCI When this perpetual offering was issued: • MSCI exclusion wasn’t public • Analysts were only hinting • No press releases • No retail coverage • No major alerts But companies close to the fire knew classification rules were shifting. So they raised capital early. Retail had no idea. They wouldn’t know for months. ⸻ ⚡️ The Takeaway This tweet marks the starting point of a long structural shift that retail didn’t understand until it was already deep in motion. The perpetual offering was the tell. The MSCI rules were the trigger. MSTR and BTC’s breakdown was the confirmation.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BullFlagz
3
BTCUSD 1W – Structure Break & Key Levels to WatchHello Traders Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe has broken below the rising trendline that supported the market for several months. This break has shifted market structure from strong bullish momentum into a phase of potential correction. Price is now trading around an important demand / support zone near 100,000 – 95,000, which previously acted as both resistance and support. This zone will be important to monitor as price tests it again from above. Key Technical Highlights: 🔹 Trendline Break: The rising trendline has been invalidated, signaling a slowdown in bullish strength and opening the door for deeper pullbacks. 🔹 First Reaction Zone (95K–100K): This area may offer temporary support. How price reacts here will guide the next weeks of movement. 🔹 Potential Consolidation: Sideways movement inside this zone is possible before the next leg of market direction forms. 🔹 Lower Support Zone (80K Region): If price fails to hold above the mid-range support, the next major weekly structure sits near 80,000, which aligns with previous accumulation and reaction levels. Market Structure Insight: The chart currently illustrates a corrective move inside a larger trend. Bitcoin remains in a broader bullish cycle, but the weekly pullback is giving clean levels for structure-based observation. The drawn path reflects a possible market reaction scenario — not a trade signal.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Fx_Agency_World3
30% drop because...I try to put it simple. Very simple. BTC’s 30% drop is because liquidity was drained from the system. The U.S. Treasury, under Secretary Scott Bessent, rebuilt its cash balance at the Federal Reserve from about $300 billion in May to over $940 billion by mid-November. This required massive T-Bill issuance, pulling roughly $450–700 billion out of the banking system. Less liquidity means tighter financial conditions, and risk assets like Bitcoin suffer. This chart shows the Treasury General Account climbing sharply, while BTC fell from its all-time high. Once the money returns to the system BTC continue making a new ATH. BTC Fear index is 11. In a couple of months will be turn into "greed". Chart source: www.federalreserve.gov
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez
XAU/USD ANALYSIS 11/24/20251. Fundamental Analysis: a) Economy: • USD: The USD is stabilizing after a recent period of weakness as markets expect the Fed to maintain lower interest rates in 2025, reducing pressure on gold. • US Stock Market: U.S. equities are seeing slight corrections, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of this week’s FOMC minutes. When stocks stall, gold often benefits. • FED: Recent weak economic data has increased expectations that the Fed will cut rates earlier in 2025. Any dovish signals from the Fed will support gold prices. • TRUMP Administration: The Trump administration is considering a new economic stimulus package and adjustments to import taxes. Protectionist-leaning policies may cause volatility in the USD, but generally increase safe-haven demand — supporting gold. • Gold ETF (SPDR): SPDR has recently shown mixed buying and selling, indicating capital flows are not yet surging but also no longer experiencing heavy outflows. This is a neutral signal but slightly supportive of price stability. b) Politics: Tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the upcoming EU elections keep defensive capital flows active. These factors help support gold and limit the risk of deep declines. c) Market Sentiment: The market is in a mild risk-off state, with capital shifting toward safe assets, though not strongly yet. This aligns with gold maintaining its base and having the potential to break out if key technical levels are breached. 2. Technical Analysis: • Price is maintaining a long-term uptrend line from early November. • A compression triangle pattern has been broken to the upside — a clear bullish signal. • The 4,064 level is a key retest zone currently being tested. • If this zone holds, upside targets will expand. • RSI on the M30 timeframe is in a balanced zone, not overbought — favorable for further upside movement. Conclusion: The trend leans bullish as long as price does not break below the trendline and the 4,029 zone. RESISTANCE: 4,096 – 4,125 – 4,193 SUPPORT: 4,029 – 4,000 – 3,964 3. Yesterday’s Market (21/11/25): • Gold fluctuated strongly from the 4,029 support area and bounced back along the trendline. • Buyers dominated late in the session, setting up a foundation for today’s recovery. • Volatility has been narrowing, signaling a potential breakout. 4. Strategy for Today (24/11/25): 🪙 SELL XAUUSD | 4147 – 4145 SL: 4153 TP1: 4137 TP2: 4129 🪙 BUY XAUUSD | 3964 – 3966 SL: 3960 TP1: 3972 TP2: 3978
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Signals_100pips
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Nov 24 - Nov 28]This week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD price continued to hold above the support level of 4,000 USD/oz, but the risk of price decline is increasing due to geopolitical tensions and expectations that the FED will cut interest rates at the December meeting is not enough to create a strong rebound for gold prices. The gold price next week may continue to fluctuate in a narrow range, waiting for US economic data to clarify the FED's interest rate reduction roadmap. Retail sales and producer price index (PPI) reports, along with other data due next week, could help us get a better idea of ​​the US economic situation. If the US economic data is below expectations, it could increase expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, pushing gold back above $4,100/oz next week. However, if these data continue to reduce expectations for a Fed rate cut, gold could break the important support level of $4,000/oz next week, opening the door to $3,845-$3,800/oz. However, in the long term, gold prices are still expected to continue to rise as central banks continue to buy, although the pace of buying may slow down due to the high gold price. Moreover, gold has proven its value, even when compared to other stores of value such as cryptocurrencies, due to the sharp decline of bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the appeal of gold is still very large and has no rivals in the financial investment environment. 📌Technically, on the H4 chart, an important support level is established around the 4,000 USD/oz threshold. If this level is broken, the gold price is at risk of falling deeply to 3,900 or even 3,850 USD/oz. In case the gold price forms a double bottom pattern at 4,000 and breaks through the 4,132 resistance level, there is a chance to recover above the 4,200 USD/oz threshold. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4176 - 4174⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4180 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3964 - 3966⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3960
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Higher timeframe outlook for DXY : 8 November 2025Monthly timeframe Bias : Bullish Analysis: Price has formed a low in September 2025, creating a dealing range with the dealing range high forming in January of 2025. This has set a the dollar index in a relative discount condition warranting a bullish bias. Please do note this bullish bias is mainly enforced by lower timeframes which will be addressed below. The current bullish draw on liquidity on this timeframe is the monthly bearish fair value gaps at 103.197 to 101.977. Weekly timeframe Bias : Bullish Analysis: Price has displaced above 99.563 and has closed above the high leaving a bullish weekly fair value gap. This is a key indication that price wants to tread higher and is driving the monthly narrative. It is expected that price to retrace into this bullish weekly fair value gap within the next 1-2 weeks before heading higher towards the monthly draw on liquidity. 4 hourly timeframe Bias : Initial bearish with an expectation of bullish reversal to the upside. Analysis: This week has seen the dollar index displace below 99.671, leaving a bearish 4H fair value gap. This is an indication that price is still looking to tread lower into further discount before a reversal upside. Note the 4H bearish order block aligning with the monthly opening price for November 2025. This adds confluence that price would reach for this bearish 4H order block and lower taking out the low of 99.398 heading into the bullish weekly fair value gap. As mentioned in the 4hourly bias, there is an expectation of bullish reversal. This is where the 4hour timeframe starts to align with the weekly and monthly timeframe. It is expected that this bullish reversal will occur after price heads into the bullish 4H fair value gap at 99.225. A bullish reversal would be confirmed once there is a bullish market structure shift confirmed with a bullish 4h fair value gap, a bullish 4H balanced price range, or an intermediate term low forming after price reacts off the 4H buyside imbalance sellside inefficiency. Side note s - Should this analysis not pan out the next point of interest would be the bullish rejection block and propulsion block on the 4H chart. Should these not hold, the bias may turn bearish. - This analysis is for educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice. The financial markets carry significant financial risk. - For ease of readability, please turn off all indicators in my chart. This can be done by using the Ctrl+Alt+H function. Should you see multiple charts you can view one chart at a time by clicking on the one chart while holding down the Alt button.
TVC:DXYLong
by Th3L1qu1d1ty
Watch for support and entry point for long positions: 4020.Negative news has been priced in; be wary of consumer data. In the short term, from now until the next three months, gold is an overcrowded trade. Any information next week will be a risk for gold; only renewed hopes for an interest rate cut can boost prices. The meeting is scheduled for December 9-10, during which one or two additional data points may be released. Nevertheless, if expectations for a rate cut do not increase, gold prices are likely to remain stagnant. The market expects investment demand to remain stagnant until the Fed clearly outlines its path. We need to be cautious whether a longer pause could catalyze a larger outflow of funds from the precious metals market. After two rounds of pullbacks and sharp rises on Friday, gold prices consolidated slightly around 4065 at the close. Currently, there's no clear distinction between upward and downward momentum, and the market is likely to remain range-bound. A clear direction is unlikely in the first half of next week, and we'll have to wait for data releases before making new trades. One key level to watch next week is the area around 4030, which is the potential entry point for our entry strategy on the second day of next week. On the hourly chart, gold is currently holding above 4020. If a pullback doesn't break this level next week, we can wait for a pullback to enter long positions. Similarly, if there's an initial rise, we'll still look at the resistance at 4100. Without a clear trend, we can focus on range trading for now. Market conditions are volatile, so please follow our real-time trading strategies. Short-term trading strategy: Buy around 4025-4030, stop loss below 4020, take profit at the 4080-4100 resistance level.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Quaid_3
1
Analysis of $IWM: Flag Pattern or Breakdown?Overview of AMEX:IWM and the Russell 2000 Index IWM is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the Russell 2000 Index. According to Investopedia, the Russell 2000 is the most widely quoted measure of the overall performance of small-cap to mid-cap stocks. This index represents approximately 7% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 and is composed of the bottom two-thirds of companies in terms of size within the Russell 3000 index. The broader Russell 3000 reflects the movements of nearly 96% of all publicly traded U.S. stocks. Significance of IWM in Market Analysis One of the reasons for focusing on this ETF is its role as a market barometer. IWM provides insight into whether small-cap stocks are participating in a broader bull market or lagging. Healthy bullish market continuations typically require participation from small-cap stocks. If small caps underperform, it may serve as an early warning that the overall market could be poised for a downturn, as these stocks are generally considered riskier. Recent Technical Observations A review of the chart shows that from mid-September to mid-November, IWM has struggled to remain above a resistance area established one year ago. The ETF has declined about 8.5% from its recent highs and may be forming a flag pattern. There was a strong bounce on Friday, accompanied by heavy volume, but the price remains within the current downtrend. It appears that IWM may have found support at a previous breakout level, though this is not yet confirmed. The ETF is currently trading well below both the 50-day moving average (red line) and the 21-day exponential moving average (blue line). Potential Trade Considerations A trade setup would be of interest if IWM can break above the downtrend line defining the flag pattern and regain the 21 EMA. Should this occur, waiting for the ETF to establish a higher low would provide an opportunity for a favorable risk-reward entry. Conclusion and Cautions At present, IWM does not offer a setup that fits the criteria for action within this trading strategy. Nevertheless, it may be worthwhile to add the ETF to a watchlist for future opportunities. All readers are encouraged to perform their own analysis and follow their personal trading rules. It is important to remember that all investments carry inherent risks, and making informed decisions is essential when allocating capital.
AMEX:IWM
by Brent_Calver
1
BEARISH DIRECTIONAL BIASETH is showing a clear bearish structure on the daily timeframe, and as we scale down to the 4H and 1H charts, price has formed bearish Fair Value Gaps that may act as short-term reaction zones, potentially driving ETH toward $2,512 on the 4H timeframe and $2,373 on the daily, while on the higher 1-month timeframe, a significant order block exists that could induce a bullish relief rally if price closes below the 4H and daily lows, providing a potential area for buyers to step in and temporarily counter the broader downtrend.
Short
by Abiona
AppLovin’s Turning PointFew listed companies have moved from relative obscurity to the centre of a global industry as quickly as AppLovin. A decade ago it was known mainly in mobile gaming circles. Today, it sits at the core of how thousands of mobile applications acquire users and make money, powered by an increasingly influential advertising platform built on artificial-intelligence techniques. That transformation is now colliding with two powerful forces: exceptional financial momentum on one side and rising regulatory scrutiny on the other. Understanding the current state of AppLovin means looking at both stories at once. What AppLovin Actually Does At its core, AppLovin is an infrastructure company for the mobile application economy. It provides a technology platform that helps: Developers of mobile applications show advertising inside their apps and get paid for those impressions. Advertisers reach the right users at the right moment inside those apps, and measure whether those campaigns are actually profitable. The company positions itself as an “outcome-driven” marketing platform: instead of simply maximising the number of ad impressions, its tools try to maximise the advertiser’s return on each unit of advertising spend. Its products help clients: acquire new users for their apps monetise those users through in-app advertising track and analyse the performance of campaigns across different ad networks and channels. In practical terms, a mobile game studio, a shopping application or a streaming service can plug into AppLovin to outsource much of the heavy lifting of advertising technology. From Game Publisher to Advertising Infrastructure AppLovin began with deep roots in mobile gaming, including publishing and operating its own titles. Over time, however, the strategic emphasis shifted decisively from being a game studio to becoming the “picks and shovels” provider powering many studios at once. That shift is now largely complete. In 2025, AppLovin sold its mobile game studio to Tripledot Studios in a transaction worth around eight hundred million dollars, a clear signal that management wants a cleaner, asset-light profile focused on software and data rather than content ownership. The long-term bet is simple: there are far more economics to be captured in running the rails of mobile advertising than in betting on individual game hits. The Axon Engine: AppLovin’s “Brain” The centre of AppLovin’s current strategy is its proprietary engine known as Axon. Axon is a large-scale decision system that evaluates every potential advertisement impression in real time. It decides: which advertisement should be shown to which user how much to bid for that impression on behalf of an advertiser how to balance short-term revenue with longer-term campaign objectives such as retention or in-app purchases. The latest generation, often referred to as Axon 2, is described by the company and external analysts as a powerful recommendation engine that learns from billions of data points to optimise campaigns. It sits inside a closed ecosystem that combines both “supply” (the apps showing advertising) and “demand” (the advertisers buying it), allowing continuous feedback loops and optimisation. In 2025 AppLovin rebranded the platform as “Axon by AppLovin” and introduced Axon Ads Manager, a self-service interface that lets advertisers manage campaigns directly through a dashboard. Initially, access is by referral only, emphasising a controlled ramp-up with selected partners. The goal is explicit: to position Axon as a high-return alternative to the advertising ecosystems of very large technology platforms such as Meta and Google. Financial Momentum: Growth With Extraordinary Margins The numbers behind this strategy help explain why AppLovin has attracted so much attention in public markets. For the full year 2024, the company generated approximately 4.71 billion dollars in revenue and about 1.58 billion dollars in net income, implying a net profit margin in the mid-thirties. That is already a highly attractive profile for an advertising technology business. The acceleration continued into 2025. In the third quarter of 2025: revenue reached about 1.4 billion dollars, an increase of roughly sixty-eight percent compared with the same period a year earlier net income rose to around 836 million dollars, up more than ninety percent year on year Analysts highlight an adjusted operating profit margin above eighty percent in the latest quarter, an extremely high figure even by software standards and far above the typical advertising technology peer. Management has guided for roughly 1.59 billion dollars in revenue in the fourth quarter (mid-point of guidance), ahead of the average analyst expectation of about 1.55 billion dollars. The stock market has responded accordingly. Over the past year, AppLovin’s share price has more than quadrupled and it has been added to the main large-capitalisation equity index in the United States. In calendar year 2025 alone, the shares have more than doubled. At the time of writing, AppLovin’s shares trade around five hundred and twenty dollars, giving the company a market value in the region of two hundred billion dollars. This combination of rapid top-line growth, very high margins and a strong stock-market performance has led some commentators to describe AppLovin as a rising leader in artificial-intelligence-driven advertising platforms. The Shadow on the Story: Data and Regulation Against this backdrop of financial success, however, the company faces a serious challenge: growing regulatory scrutiny over how it collects and uses data. In October 2025, reports emerged that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission had opened an investigation into AppLovin’s data-collection practices, following a whistle-blower complaint and several reports by short-selling firms. These critics allege that AppLovin may have violated service agreements with large platforms in order to gather data for advertising purposes, and that certain products enabled more intrusive tracking than disclosed. Further reporting has suggested that multiple state attorneys general are also examining whether AppLovin’s practices might have breached privacy rules, including regulations designed to protect children online. One controversial product, known as Array, has already been shut down after accusations that it enabled unauthorised application downloads and tracking behaviour. AppLovin strongly denies wrongdoing. The company says that its systems require user consent and comply with industry standards, and it has hired the law firm Quinn Emanuel to conduct an independent review of the allegations. At this stage, the Securities and Exchange Commission has not formally accused AppLovin of any violation, but the overhang is real: the initial news of the investigation triggered a double-digit percentage fall in the share price in a single session. For investors and industry observers, the key question is whether the company’s growth has relied on practices that may not be acceptable under tightening privacy rules, or whether it can demonstrate that its edge comes primarily from better modelling and integration, not from cutting corners on compliance. Strategic Ambition at Global Scale Regulatory questions aside, AppLovin is clearly playing for very high stakes. The company has already paused and then reopened access to its flagship Axon platform in order to manage growth and product quality. It is investing heavily in new formats such as dynamic product advertisements that automatically generate image-based creatives for commerce clients, and it is expanding well beyond gaming into sectors such as online retail and services. Its ambitions extend into deal-making as well. Reports indicate that AppLovin has made a bid for the non-China assets of TikTok, underlining management’s willingness to contemplate very large acquisitions that could reshape the digital advertising landscape. If Axon Ads Manager gains traction as a self-service tool, AppLovin could increasingly look like a third major “walled garden” in performance advertising, alongside the largest social and search platforms. That would strengthen its bargaining power with advertisers and partners but might also invite closer attention from regulators and competitors. How to Think About the Current Situation For readers who are new to the story, AppLovin today can be summarised in three points: It has become critical mobile infrastructure. Its tools help a large portion of the mobile application ecosystem to acquire users and monetise attention. This gives it scale advantages and a rich data environment that are hard to replicate. Its financial profile is unusually strong. Revenue is growing rapidly, profitability is very high and cash generation is robust. The market has rewarded this with a very high valuation. It is operating under an intensifying regulatory cloud. Allegations around data privacy and user tracking, plus formal investigations by regulators, introduce non-trivial legal and reputational risk. The balance between those three forces will determine the next chapter. If AppLovin can demonstrate that its competitive edge is sustainable within stricter privacy norms, continue to roll out Axon successfully and avoid major legal penalties, it could consolidate its position as a long-term winner in performance advertising. If, however, investigations uncover serious issues or lead to restrictive settlements, the current profitability and valuation could prove difficult to justify. For now, AppLovin is both one of the most impressive growth stories in digital advertising and one of the most closely watched from a regulatory perspective. Anyone following the mobile economy over the next few years will need to keep an eye on this company, its Axon platform and the evolving rulebook that governs how personal data can be used in the pursuit of advertising performance. This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
NASDAQ:APP
by MikeRoss55
Is Google Entering Distribution? (GOOG, GOOGL Analysis)⚡ Overview Recently, the charts of all major tech giants — Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft — have started to look almost identical. Each of them seems to be either topping out or entering what looks like a distribution phase. In this post, I’ll share my technical and fundamental outlook on Google (GOOG, GOOGL), along with the key risks and price zones I’m watching as a trader. 💡 Fundamental View From a fundamental perspective, Google still looks strong: The P/E ratio has been growing steadily. Revenue continues to rise. The company has been aggressively buying back shares for years. So fundamentally, this is not a bubble. By Peter Lynch’s fair value formula, Google remains fairly valued, maybe even with a modest upside left. However, strong fundamentals don’t always mean big growth ahead — especially when the market has already priced in perfection. And that’s typically when the distribution phase begins. 📈 Technical View According to Elliott Wave Theory, Google seems to be completing the fifth sub-wave within a larger third wave — a structure that often marks the final stage before a distribution or correction phase. On the long-term chart, price is now approaching the upper boundary of the rising channel, with limited upside potential — possibly up to $430–$450, which represents the top zone. Beyond that, the probability of continued growth drops sharply, while correction risk increases significantly. ⚙️ Market Structure When analyzing the volume profile, the largest accumulation zone sits around $15 – $16 — that’s where long-term investors entered 15 years ago. Those early buyers are now sitting on massive unrealized profits, and many are gradually distributing (selling) positions into current strength. Meanwhile, retail traders often see the ongoing move as “more upside ahead.” But in reality, this could be the final buying climax before a deeper correction. 🧩 Cycle Context Interestingly, the same pattern is visible across Apple, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. It’s not just about one stock — the entire Big Tech segment appears to be entering a similar maturity stage of the cycle. That’s why I believe Google could soon transition from markup to distribution, followed by a potential multi-quarter sideways or corrective phase. 💬 What’s your take? Do you think Google will reach $400 before correcting — or has the top already formed? 👇 Share your view in the comments.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by sdk-trading
Weekly QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (16 NOV)Weekly QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (16 NOV) 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment appears bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED may pause rate cuts in December, which has contributed to recent selling pressure and possible hedging flows. However, with the U.S. government reopening last week, we will start receiving updated economic data again. If employment data weakens and CPI comes in low or stable, it could trigger a renewed bullish momentum. NVDA will report earnings this Wednesday after market close. I will be watching closely in my view, if NVDA were to miss expectations, QQQ and SPY could see a strong retracement. However, I think this is unlikely. I expect solid earnings growth and believe the AI cycle continues to support upside. Additionally, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump administration aims to finalize its trade agreement with China by Thanksgiving (November 27). This could add further bullish sentiment to the market. 📈 Technical Analysis The market showed a strong bounce on Friday after tapping the 599 level. RSI has also reset, meaning price is no longer overbought. We remain inside the weekly range, and price has reached the 0.75 max discount zone for the second time. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction Bullish Scenario (Black Line): I think this scenario is more likely. I want to see price close a 4H candle above 613. If that happens, I will be targeting 618 next. Price may run 618, pull back slightly, then eventually push toward 625 and potentially all-time highs around 637. Bearish Scenario (Red Line): If we see strong selling on Monday, I will assume price may follow the bearish path. In that case, I expect a move toward 595.5 and then the range low at 589. From there, we could see a bounce and a reclaim of 595.5. 💬For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by UA_CAPITAL