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Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY Rises Above 157.00 for the First Time Since JanuaryUSD/JPY Rises Above 157.00 for the First Time Since January According to media reports, the Japanese government is in the final stages of preparing an economic stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen (USD 135.38 billion) to help households cope with persistent inflation. This could become the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. The Cabinet plans to approve the package on Friday, and the supplementary budget to fund it on 28 November, aiming to secure parliamentary approval before the end of the year. This decision has led to a significant weakening of the national currency. Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart Fluctuations in the Japanese yen against the US dollar are forming an upward channel (shown in blue), and the fundamental backdrop this week has caused the price to: → break the QL line from below (and after the breakout, the rise accelerated, indicating imbalance — forming a Fair Value Gap pattern); → reach the median. It is reasonable to assume that around the median, supply and demand may balance each other, stabilising the market. It is also possible that the FVG area will act as support in the event of a correction. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
Is the Fortress of Precision Oncology Crumbling?In late 2025, the global diagnostics industry is poised for a potential paradigm shift as rumors circulate regarding Abbott Laboratories' advanced negotiations to acquire Exact Sciences. A favorable macroeconomic pivot catalyzes this potential consolidation; the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates has thawed the "capital winter," enabling cash-rich conglomerates like Abbott to leverage debt for high-value acquisitions. While Exact Sciences has demonstrated financial fortitude with record Q3 2025 revenue of $851 million and a transition to significant profitability, the proposed deal is interpreted as a strategic necessity rather than a simple exit. Abbott seeks a durable post-pandemic growth engine, while Exact Sciences requires a partner with a "fortress balance sheet" to navigate an era of "exponential risk". Despite its market leadership, Exact Sciences is contending with deepening vulnerabilities that threaten its independence. The company’s intellectual property moat has been breached following a critical defeat in patent litigation against Geneoscopy, which invalidated key claims protecting Cologuard and opened the door to immediate competition. Furthermore, the company faces significant geopolitical exposure due to a heavy reliance on Chinese supply chains for essential chemical precursors, a fragility that could be catastrophic in the event of heightened U.S.-China tensions. In a defensive maneuver, Exact Sciences has already begun diversifying its technological bets by licensing Freenome’s blood-based screening technology, effectively hedging against the potential erosion of its own stool-based testing monopoly. The merger’s long-term value thesis rests on scaling innovation and unlocking international markets. Exact Sciences holds a promising pipeline, including Cologuard Plus, which improves specificity to 94% and the multi-cancer early detection tool, Cancerguard. However, the company has historically struggled to export Cologuard due to high costs and incompatible foreign screening guidelines. An acquisition would allow Exact Sciences to leverage Abbott’s massive global infrastructure to bypass these barriers, "friend-shore" vulnerable supply chains, and navigate complex regulatory frameworks like the EU’s Medical Device Regulation. Ultimately, this transaction represents a flight to safety, merging Exact’s scientific innovation with Abbott’s logistical power to secure the future of cancer diagnostics.
NASDAQ:EXASLong
by UDIS_View
Bitcoin Break-and-Retest: Bearish Reversal SetupPrice has pushed into a stacked resistance zone between ~92,000–93,000, where two previously rejected supply areas overlap. After a strong impulsive move upward, BTC formed a lower high within this resistance block and is now showing early signs of exhaustion. A potential short setup forms at the blue-circled area, where price retests the underside of the trendline break and fails to reclaim resistance. This aligns with a classic break–retest–continuation pattern. If sellers maintain control: Entry Zone: Retest of broken trendline / underside of resistance Bias: Bearish continuation Target: Downward liquidity zone around 89,500–90,000 Invalidation: A clean breakout above the upper resistance band (~93,000) Overall, the chart suggests a short-term pullback scenario unless bulls regain the resistance region.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by Hamza_Gold
1
Tech Stocks Rally After Nvidia’s Earnings ReportTech Stocks Rally After Nvidia’s Earnings Report As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index is displaying positive momentum today. A strong catalyst for growth arrived with the release of Nvidia’s quarterly report, which exceeded Wall Street’s optimistic expectations. Nvidia reported quarterly revenue of $57bn (vs. the expected $54.9bn), and earnings per share of $1.30 (forecast: $1.26). Meanwhile, CEO Jensen Huang stated that demand for the new Blackwell chips is “off the charts”. Nvidia’s strong report revived “risk appetite” in the tech sector and eased concerns about a potential AI bubble. Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart Analysing the hourly chart of the Nasdaq 100 two days earlier, we: → noted that the previously active upward channel had broadened downwards; → suggested a scenario in which the bulls might attempt to return the index to an upward trajectory if Nvidia’s quarterly results were strong. Yesterday’s report from the equity market leader confirmed that demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure remains enormous, paving the way for the tech-sector rally to continue. From the standpoint of supply pressure, resistance may come from: → the upper red line drawn through the lower November highs; → the 25,400 level, which had acted as local support but was decisively broken by a large bearish candle. On the other hand: → the decline towards 24,400 once again activated buying interest; → the November drop may prove to be only an intermediate correction, after which the upward trend could resume. Whether the bulls can maintain positive momentum in the Nasdaq 100 following Nvidia’s strong quarterly figures will depend largely on the outcome of the delayed September US employment report, postponed due to the shutdown. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:NDQM
by FXOpen
1
Amazon, Microsoft&the Digital Markets Act: Brussels Sets a RadarAmazon, Microsoft and the Digital Markets Act: Brussels Sets Its Radar on the Cloud Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The European Commission has opened three formal investigations into Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) under the regulatory framework of the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The goal is to determine whether their cloud services should be classified as “gatekeepers” and whether their business practices are restricting competition in a sector overwhelmingly dominated by U.S. tech giants. The investigation comes at a crucial moment. The cloud computing market is growing at double-digit rates and has become a cornerstone of the European digital ecosystem. The Commission argues that the sector is evolving so quickly that the DMA itself may need to be updated to avoid falling behind technologically. Microsoft has stated it will fully cooperate, while Amazon Web Services warns that excessive regulation could “slow innovation” and raise costs for European businesses. Behind the scenes, the tension also has a political tone: with Trump pushing to protect U.S. Big Tech, Brussels is keen to flex its regulatory muscle. A resolution is expected within 12 months, although deadlines in Brussels often tend to slip. Fundamental Analysis: Amazon and Microsoft Under Regulatory Scrutiny Both companies rely heavily on the cloud segment for their growth. AWS accounts for roughly 60–70% of Amazon’s operating profit, which means any regulatory barriers in Europe—however limited—create market sensitivity. In Microsoft’s case, Azure continues to expand its market share, driven by the integration of generative AI and enterprise services. The key question is whether Brussels considers that Microsoft’s ecosystem —Windows + Office + Azure— creates a structural advantage that restricts competitors. Despite rising regulatory risks, fundamentals remain solid: cloud revenue growth, strong operating margins, and structural expansion driven by artificial intelligence. Technical Analysis of Amazon (AMZN) On the daily chart, AMZN is trading sideways following the correction seen in November. Wednesday’s session closed at $222.69, a level aligned with the volume Point of Control (POC), which serves as a structural reference for the current range. For much of the year, price action has fluctuated between $234 and $216, with a notable annual high reached on 3 November at $258.60, and an annual low at $178.85 recorded in May. At present, the price remains below the 50- and 100-day moving averages, while finding initial support above the 200-day moving average, which acts as an important dynamic support zone. Technical indicators also reflect the corrective phase: The RSI stands at 40.63, close to its support area, leaving room for a potential technical rebound if demand appears. The MACD maintains a downward slope, confirming the short-term bearish momentum. A sustained close above the 50- and 100-day moving averages would be the first technical sign of recovery, opening the door for a move back toward the $234 area and eventually another attempt to retest the annual highs around $258. On the downside, if bearish pressure continues, the price could move again toward $216, a key support within the six-month range. A clear break below this level would expose the $202 zone, which aligns with the last major bullish impulse of the semester. According to the ActivTrades US Market Pulse, overall market risk remains neutral following recent corrections. If Amazon continues to deliver strong results in cloud revenue and growth, it is reasonable to expect that—despite EU regulatory pressure—the stock could continue developing a positive organic trend as long as the key levels of the current range hold. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by ActivTrades
Attock Cement, Buy or wait?In the Weekly time frame, ACPL is showing a bearish divergence and is currently in a sideways pattern that may confirm the distribution phase (as per Dow Theory). With a high fundamental ranking and an OPNP ratio (Net Profit/Operating Profit) of around 2.36 (as of the 3rd quarter, i.e., September 25), ACPL could be a good buy if it breaks the Higher High (HH) of 341. Alternatively, if it complements the Bearish divergence, the 1st buy would be at 179.47, 2nd buy at 147.79, and 3rd buy at 124.8.
PSX:ACPLLong
by narmak
Smart Money Concept (GOLD)📊 PROFESSIONAL BREAKDOWN 1️⃣ Accumulation + Liquidity build-up Price formed a solid range where liquidity was built on both sides, preparing the institutional move. 2️⃣ ChoCH + BOS: Real bullish shift The sequence confirms bullish intent with both a structural break and a change of character. 3️⃣ Fake Out / Liquidity Grab A sweep above the range confirms manipulation and removes buy-side liquidity before the true move. 4️⃣ Clean rejection at support The current rejection aligns perfectly with institutional demand, validating the BUY zone. 5️⃣ Optimal BUY at 4,056 Confluences: • ChoCH retest • Support zone • Previous FVG • Strong rejection 6️⃣ Professional SL at 4,028 Placement is clean, safe, and protected from volatility spikes. 7️⃣ Target areas • TP1: 4,112 → resting liquidity • TP2: 4,150 → FVG mitigation in 1H Both targets align with institutional price delivery. 🌟 Motivational Message “Mastery comes from understanding the story behind each candle. Keep sharpening your institutional eye.” GOOD LUCK TRADERS
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
Gold HTF analysis-currently we are seeing the Fed is leaning less dovish to Hawkish, considering Rate Holds since inflation is still elevated. Now if this is the case and the Fed continues this narrative in to December, then we could expect. >DXY Bulls >Gold Bears >Stock market bears >BTC bears. - now inorder to do so, we could see price retest higher supply zones to generate liquidity before continuing to the downside. now. We musnt forget that overall the Fed is on a Rate cutting Cycle and this is merely just a pause, as a result, we could expect Gold, Stock markets & cypto to restest better demand zones before rising agian overall.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jawad_Khalili1
NASDAQNASDAQ Analysis – Possible Early Pullback Before New York Session The Nasdaq may experience a short-term correction during the London session and pre–New York, especially after yesterday’s explosive 550-point rally driven by Nvidia’s strong earnings. Price is currently sitting on the 0.786 Fibonacci level, which is acting as a strong support and has been respected multiple times. At the same time, the index is positioned just below the descending trendline formed from the recent highs. The fractal structure has now been completed, suggesting we could see a small bearish move before the New York session potentially resumes the bullish trend. If price fails to break below the 0.786 support and instead breaks above the descending trendline, we could see continuation to the upside, targeting 25,300 in the next impulsive leg.
FX:NAS100Long
by Dan-Goldfx
GOLD UNDER PRESSURE - NFP DAY! 💰 GOLD UNDER PRESSURE - NFP DAY! ⚠️ Current Price: $4,066 - $4,078 🔴 Opening Price: $4,078 Today's Range: $4,042 - $4,110 Yesterday: Trimmed gains after hitting $4,132 Monthly Performance: -4.29% ❌ Status: 🔴 BEARISH - CRITICAL NFP DAY 🚨 TODAY - SEPTEMBER NFP REPORT! 📊 THE MOST IMPORTANT DATA RELEASE! First jobs report since government shutdown. This will move gold MASSIVELY! What's Happening: ❗ September NFP Today - First post-shutdown jobs data (8:30 AM ET) ❗ FOMC Minutes Yesterday - No major surprises, cautious tone ❗ Gold Trimming Gains - Fell from $4,132 to $4,066 ❗ Dollar Strengthening - DXY above 99.50, pressuring gold ❗ December Rate Cut Odds - Dropped to 46.6% (from 62.9% last week) ❗ Risk-Off Mood - But not helping gold due to strong USD 📊 NFP EXPECTATIONS & IMPACT Forecast: Nonfarm Payrolls: +50,000 (vs +22,000 in August) Unemployment Rate: 4.3% (unchanged) Average Hourly Earnings: Key inflation indicator How NFP Affects Gold: Strong NFP (>50K) = GOLD DOWN 🔴 Fed less likely to cut rates Dollar strengthens Gold typically drops 30-50+ pips Weak NFP (<50K) = GOLD UP 🟢 Fed more likely to cut rates Dollar weakens Gold typically rallies 40-60+ pips In-Line NFP (~50K) = CHOPPY ⚪ Mixed reaction Depends on other components (wages, unemployment) 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Market Structure: BEARISH 🔴🔴 Gold failed to break above $4,112 resistance yesterday despite FOMC. Now trading below key support. Bears have control short-term. Key Development: Gold trimmed earlier gains, trading around $4,090, easing from intraday high near $4,132. Bulls tested $4,112 resistance but failed. Critical Support Levels (Under Attack!) 🔵 Support 1: $4,065 - $4,075 (Current fight zone) Support 2: $4,042 - $4,050 (Today's low - Critical) Support 3: $4,000 - $4,005 (Psychological - Major) Support 4: $3,987 - $4,002 (November open) Support 5: $3,965 (November 6 low) Key Resistance Levels (Recovery barriers) 🔴 Resistance 1: $4,090 - $4,100 (Immediate ceiling) Resistance 2: $4,112 - $4,120 (20-day SMA - Strong) Resistance 3: $4,140 - $4,150 (Major barrier) Resistance 4: $4,170 - $4,212 (Last week's range) 📈 TECHNICAL INDICATORS RSI (14): 46 (Bearish - Neutral zone but trending down) 📉 RSI (4H): 46 (Neutral-to-bearish tone) MACD: Momentum indicator turned lower below midline ❌ Moving Averages: Price below 20-SMA ($4,080) 🔴 20-SMA acting as resistance ❌ 100-SMA and 200-SMA still below (long-term bullish) ✅ Pattern: Broader SMA configuration points to consolidative bias Volume: Above average - Institutional positioning for NFP 🎯 TODAY'S TRADING STRATEGIES SCENARIO 1: WEAK NFP 🟢 (40% Probability) IF NFP < 50K (Weaker than expected): Fed rate cut odds increase → Dollar falls → Gold RALLIES! LONG Setup: Entry: Immediate spike after NFP (within 5 min) Targets: TP1: $4,100 📍 (+30 pips) TP2: $4,120 📍 (+50 pips) TP3: $4,150 📍 (+80 pips) Stop Loss: $4,040 (Tight - move to breakeven fast!) Risk/Reward: 1:2+ ratio ✅ SCENARIO 2: STRONG NFP 🔴 (45% Probability) IF NFP > 50K (Stronger than expected): Fed stays hawkish → Dollar strengthens → Gold DROPS! SHORT Setup: Entry: Immediate drop after NFP Targets: TP1: $4,042 📍 (-25 pips) TP2: $4,000 📍 (-65 pips) TP3: $3,987 📍 (-80 pips) Stop Loss: $4,095 ⚠️ WARNING: Fast-moving market - use tight stops! SCENARIO 3: IN-LINE NFP ⚪ (15% Probability) IF NFP ~50K (As expected): Strategy: WAIT for Clear Direction First 15-30 min will be CHOPPY Look at other components (wages, unemployment) Trade the SECOND move after dust settles Direction depends on market interpretation 💎 NFP TRADING PLAN (Step-by-Step) BEFORE NFP (Now until 8:30 AM ET): ✅ Close ALL positions or set VERY wide stops ✅ Reduce position size to 50% of normal ✅ Set alerts at $4,100 and $4,040 ✅ Be ready - Have orders prepared but NOT placed ✅ Stay calm - Don't panic trade! DURING NFP (8:30-8:35 AM ET): ⏰ Read the number - Higher or lower than 50K? 👀 Watch initial reaction - Which way is it moving? ⚠️ Wait 2-3 minutes - Let fake moves clear 🎯 Confirm direction - Is it continuing or reversing? AFTER NFP (8:35+ AM ET): ✅ Enter ONLY if direction is clear ✅ Use smaller positions - Volatility extreme! ✅ Move SL to breakeven after +20 pips ✅ Take partial profits at each target ✅ Trail your stop - Protect profits! 🌍 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS YESTERDAY'S FOMC MINUTES: Cautious tone but no major surprises Focused on data-dependent approach Concerns about post-shutdown economic weakness No clear signal on December cut Market Reaction: Muted - Gold initially spiked to $4,132 then fell back TODAY'S NFP - WHAT MATTERS: Most Important: Headline NFP Number (+50K expected) Unemployment Rate (4.3% expected) Average Hourly Earnings (inflation signal) Why This NFP is Special: First data since 43-day shutdown May show shutdown impact on economy Will heavily influence December Fed decision Could reset market expectations entirely BULLISH FACTORS ⬆️ ✅ Weak Jobs Data Expected - Shutdown impact likely ✅ Government Concerns - Economic weakness possible ✅ Analysts still predict gold may reach $4,456-$4,509 end November ✅ Central banks targeting 750-900 tonnes purchases 2025 ✅ If NFP weak → Rate cut odds rise → Gold up BEARISH RISKS ⬇️ ⚠️ Strong Dollar - DXY above 99.50 and strengthening ⚠️ December Cut Odds Low - Only 46.6% now ⚠️ Failed $4,112 Break - Bears defending ⚠️ Technical Weakness - Below 20-SMA ⚠️ If NFP strong → Rate cut odds fall → Gold down 🔥 MARKET SENTIMENT: EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS Pre-NFP Positioning: Traders are: Closing longs ahead of NFP Waiting on sidelines Expecting big volatility USD bulls positioning for strength Analyst Views: Gold may stay pressured near $4,078 unless it reclaims $4,112-$4,140 Post-NFP Targets: Weak NFP: $4,150-$4,200 Strong NFP: $4,000-$3,965 💡 PROFESSIONAL GAME PLAN For DAY TRADERS: ⚡ DO NOT TRADE 30 MIN BEFORE NFP! Close all positions by 8:00 AM ET Wait for NFP release at 8:30 AM ET Let first 2-3 min settle Trade the confirmed direction Use TIGHT stops (20-30 pips max) Take quick profits For SWING TRADERS: 📊 Today Decides the Week! IF weak NFP → Go LONG for $4,150-$4,200 (hold 3-5 days) IF strong NFP → Stay FLAT or SHORT to $4,000 This data will set trend for rest of November For LONG-TERM INVESTORS: 💎 Patience! IF gold drops to $3,950-$4,000 after strong NFP → BUY IF gold rallies on weak NFP → Wait for next dip Long-term target still $4,500+ (2026) 📅 TODAY'S TIMELINE Pre-Market: Consolidation $4,065-$4,080 (nervous calm) 8:30 AM ET: NFP RELEASE 🔥🔥🔥 8:30-8:45 AM: EXTREME volatility (100+ pip moves possible!) 9:00 AM-12:00 PM: Direction confirmed, follow-through Afternoon: Profit-taking, position adjustments 🎬 BOTTOM LINE (TL;DR) Price: $4,066-$4,078 (Weak) Event: NFP TODAY 8:30 AM ET Bias: NEUTRAL until NFP (Then clear!) Strategy: WAIT for NFP, trade the reaction Risk Level: EXTREME (Highest this month!) 🔔 NFP CHEAT SHEET Strong NFP (>60K): Gold → $4,000-$4,042 🔴 Action: SHORT or stay flat Expected NFP (~50K): Gold → Choppy $4,050-$4,100 ⚪ Action: Wait for secondary move Weak NFP (<40K): Gold → $4,120-$4,150+ 🟢 Action: LONG aggressively Remember: First move can be fake! Wait for confirmation! 📊 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK Trend: ⚠️ BULLISH (Long-term) but BEARISH (Short-term) Momentum: WEAK - Bears in control 🔴 Support: TESTING at $4,065-$4,075 ⚠️ Resistance: STRONG at $4,090-$4,112 🚧 Pattern: Failed breakout + Rejection at 20-SMA Today's Outcome: NFP decides EVERYTHING! ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT - NFP DAY! ✅ TINY Positions - Risk MAX 0.5% (Extreme volatility!) ✅ WIDE Stops - 40-50+ pips (Initial spikes huge) ✅ Quick Profits - Lock gains FAST (Market can reverse) ✅ NO Predictions - REACT to data, don't guess ✅ Breakeven Fast - Move SL to BE after +20 pips ✅ Accept Losses - If wrong, exit and wait 🎯 SWING TRADE SETUP (Post-NFP) Setup A - Weak NFP Rally: Entry: $4,080-$4,090 (after weak NFP confirmed) Target 1: $4,150 (Hold 2-3 days) Target 2: $4,200 (Hold 5-7 days) Stop Loss: $4,050 Setup B - Strong NFP Drop: Entry: $4,050-$4,060 (after strong NFP confirmed) Target 1: $4,000 (Hold 1-2 days) Target 2: $3,965 (Hold 3-5 days) Stop Loss: $4,085 🏆 NFP TRADING WISDOM Historical Patterns: Initial spike often REVERSES within 15 min True direction emerges after 30-60 min Average NFP move: 60-100 pips in first hour Gold inversely correlated with NFP surprises What Professional Traders Do: Close positions before NFP Wait for initial volatility to settle Trade the SECOND move (more reliable) Use smaller size than normal Move to breakeven quickly Don't fight the trend after NFP 🔮 FORECAST If Weak NFP: Today: Rally to $4,120-$4,150 Friday: Consolidate gains Next Week: Push to $4,200+ If Strong NFP: Today: Drop to $4,000-$4,042 Friday: Test support Next Week: Range $4,000-$4,100 If In-Line NFP: Today: Chop $4,050-$4,100 Friday: Direction unclear Next Week: Wait for more data 🚨 CRITICAL NFP REMINDERS ⚠️ BIGGEST VOLATILITY DAY - Expect 100+ pip swings! ⚠️ First Move Often FAKE - Don't chase immediately ⚠️ Slippage is HUGE - Market orders dangerous ⚠️ Spreads WIDEN - Costs increase dramatically ⚠️ News Can Leak - Sometimes moves before 8:30 ⚠️ Other Components Matter - Not just headline NFP ⚠️ Revisions Count - Previous months often revised 📊 SUPPORT/RESISTANCE SUMMARY Critical Support: $4,042, $4,000 (Must hold!) Strong Support: $4,065, $4,050 Weak Resistance: $4,090, $4,100 Strong Resistance: $4,112, $4,120, $4,150 NFP Breakout Up: $4,112 (Bulls win) NFP Breakdown Down: $4,042 (Bears win) ⚠️ FINAL DISCLAIMER Today is THE most volatile and dangerous trading day this month. NFP releases cause extreme price swings, false breakouts, stop hunting, and massive slippage. This analysis is for educational purposes only. NEVER trade the first minute after NFP. Use position sizes 50% smaller than normal. Always use stop losses. Be prepared to lose on this trade - even professionals get whipsawed. The market can gap through your stops. Past NFP reactions don't guarantee future results. If you're not experienced with NFP trading, STAY FLAT today. Consult a licensed financial advisor before trading. 📱 MOST DANGEROUS DAY! 💬 NFP at 8:30 AM ET 🔔 100+ pip moves expected ⚡ DON'T GUESS - REACT! 🙏 Trade safe or don't trade! #Gold #XAUUSD #NFP #NonFarmPayrolls #ForexTrading #JobsReport #HighVolatility #RiskManagement #DayTrading #EventTrading #FOMCMinutes #MarketAnalysis #CriticalData #TradingSafety
TVC:GOLD
by AthensBySahan
USD/MXN: Super Peso Defies Dollar StrengthHere is the revised article with all hyperlinks removed, maintaining the professional formatting and analysis. The Mexican peso continues to frustrate dollar bulls, maintaining a defiant stability despite broad greenback strength. Over the last five sessions, the USD/MXN pair moved just 0.4%. This neutrality highlights the peso's formidable resistance. While the U.S. dollar gains ground globally, Mexico’s currency holds the line. Investors call this the "Super Peso" phenomenon. It stems from a unique confluence of high yields and structural economic shifts. Macroeconomics: The Rate Differential Shield Mexico’s high interest rates act as a primary defensive wall. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) set its benchmark rate at 7.25% in November. Conversely, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains a target of 4.00%. This 3.25% spread creates a massive incentive for carry traders. Investors borrow cheap dollars to buy yielding pesos. This constant demand buoys the currency even when market sentiment sours. Economics: Inflation and Policy Inflation in Mexico is cooling, validating Banxico's strategy. October data showed headline inflation dropping to 3.57%. This progress allows policymakers to consider gradual easing. However, aggressive cuts pose a risk. Narrowing the yield spread too quickly could erode the peso's appeal. Banxico must balance growth needs against currency stability. Geostrategy & Geopolitics: The Nearshoring Fortress Global trade tensions have inadvertently strengthened Mexico's hand. The U.S.-China decoupling forces corporations to shorten supply chains. Mexico is the logical beneficiary of this "nearshoring" wave. Its geographic proximity to the U.S. market is a supreme strategic asset. This geopolitical realignment drives Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to record levels. Long-term capital inflows provide a structural floor for the peso, independent of daily speculative flows. Industry Trends: Manufacturing Renaissance Industrial parks across Northern Mexico are operating at near capacity. Global manufacturers are relocating essential production lines from Asia to states like Nuevo León. This shifts Mexico’s economy higher up the value chain. We see a transition from simple assembly to complex manufacturing. This industrial depth creates sustained demand for pesos to pay local operational costs. Technology & Cyber: Digital Finance Evolution Mexico’s financial sector is undergoing a rapid technological maturation. Fintech adoption is surging, facilitating record remittance flows. Digital platforms now process billions of dollars efficiently and securely. Cybersecurity investment is rising in tandem to protect this digital infrastructure. Robust cyber-defenses build institutional trust, encouraging further capital repatriation. Science & High-Tech: The Innovation Hub The narrative of cheap labor is evolving into one of skilled innovation. Hubs like Guadalajara are attracting high-tech R&D centers. This "Silicon Valley of Mexico" fosters a new class of engineering talent. Science-based industries, including medical devices and aerospace, are expanding. This diversification reduces reliance on oil exports and strengthens the currency's fundamental value. Patent Analysis: Intellectual Property Growth Patent filings reflect this high-tech shift. International companies are increasingly filing IP protections within Mexico. Patent data indicates growth in automotive and aerospace engineering sectors. This signals a long-term commitment to the market. Companies do not protect IP in transient manufacturing bases. They do so in strategic, long-term hubs. This entrenchment further stabilizes the economic outlook. Management & Leadership: Central Bank Discipline Banxico’s leadership has demonstrated exceptional discipline. They moved earlier and more aggressively against inflation than many G7 peers. This assertiveness established deep credibility with global markets. Investors trust the central bank to defend the currency’s purchasing power. Prudent management serves as an intangible but vital asset for the peso. Outlook: The Dollar Threat Risks remain despite these strengths. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rebounding toward the 100 level. A sustained breakout could pressure emerging market currencies. If the DXY reclaims early-2025 highs of 110, the peso will face a severe test. Traders should watch the 18.59 resistance level closely. A break above this could signal a shift in momentum.
Long
by the5erstrading
XAUUSD correction?Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – Correction After Multi-Day Rally Gold is currently undergoing a correction after two strong bullish days, driven by fading expectations of U.S. rate cuts. As rate-cut optimism weakens, the dollar strengthens and naturally pressures gold lower. Price has left several long wicks around the mid-channel zone, signaling rejection and suggesting a move toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, around 4000–4015, during today’s session. If this zone holds as support, gold should remain inside its bullish channel structure, and we could see a throwback or bullish continuation tomorrow. However, if price breaks below 4000–4015, the next major support lies near 3960, where liquidity and previous demand converge.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Dan-Goldfx
GBP/USD Price Outlook – Trade Setup📊 Technical Structure FPMARKETS:GBPUSD GBP/USD has bounced from the Support Zone at 1.3061–1.3029, after a sharp four-day decline. Price is now consolidating just above support around 1.3060, with the next Resistance Zone seen near 1.3147–1.3174. As long as 1.3030 holds, the structure favours a corrective rebound back into the previous consolidation band. A decisive break above 1.3120 would open the way toward 1.3170+. Conversely, a clean close below 1.3030 would invalidate the bullish setup and expose the 1.2980–1.3000 region. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Buy near support for a rebound toward the resistance zone. Entry: 1.3039 – 1.3061 Stop Loss: 1.3032 Take Profit 1: 1.3147 Take Profit 2: 1.3174 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 2.6 Bias remains cautiously bullish while price holds above 1.3030. 🌐 Macro Background Cable is trading with mild gains around 1.3060, snapping a four-day losing streak as markets turn cautious ahead of the delayed US September NFP release. FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn notes that markets now see a BoE December rate cut as likely, after UK CPI slowed to 3.6% YoY in October, reinforcing expectations of policy easing and limiting medium-term upside for GBP. At the same time, the coming UK budget on 26 November could further shape BoE expectations. On the US side, the labour-market picture remains blurred by the 43-day government shutdown, which delayed key economic data. Economists expect around 50k new jobs in September and unemployment at 4.3%. A weaker-than-expected NFP print could weigh on the USD and support GBP/USD, while a strong report would reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance and potentially cap the pair’s recovery. FOMC minutes showed “strongly differing views” on the December decision: while most officials still support cuts in principle, many are open to keeping rates steady for the rest of the year, leaving the policy path highly data-dependent. Overall, GBP faces headwinds from BoE cut pricing, but short-term, a softer USD on weak NFP could allow a technical rebound toward 1.3150–1.3170. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: 1.3147 – 1.3174 Support: 1.3039 – 1.3061 Psychological Levels: 1.3000, 1.3100 📌 Trade Summary GBP/USD is attempting to base above 1.3039 support after an extended selloff. The setup favours buying dips toward support, targeting a corrective move into the 1.3147–1.3174 resistance band, especially if the US NFP report disappoints and pressures the USD. A daily close below 1.3030 would negate this view and argue for a deeper slide toward 1.2980. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
by ATFX_Global
The Arena of XAUUSD-GOLD: New Round BeginsMy friends, Good Morning, I have prepared a gold analysis for you in a swing trading structure. The timeframe of this analysis is 4 hours. In my XAUUSD-GOLD analysis, I will open sell positions between 4124.0 and 4176.0. My targets are: TP1 - 3995.0 and TP2 - 3969.0.📊 This analysis is purely for your information. To my friends who support each of my analyses with their likes, I share these analyses thanks to your likes, because every single like from you is my greatest source of motivation to keep posting. I sincerely thank all my friends who leave a like. 🙏 With respect and love.❤️
TVC:GOLD
by TraderTilki
27
Gold Analysis - Channel Decline Toward Key Support LevelsGold is currently trading inside a descending channel, showing sustained short-term bearish momentum. Price continues to respect both the upper and lower channel boundaries, forming lower highs and lower lows. We have three key support zones highlighted below current price: • Support Level 1: Minor liquidity zone where a short-term reaction is possible • Support Level 2: Stronger demand area, likely to generate a corrective bounce • Support Level 3: Major support and potential reversal zone at the channel bottom The projected path shows price potentially continuing lower within the channel toward the deeper support levels before forming a bullish reversal. If price reacts at the lower boundary of the channel + major support, a breakout to the upside could target the 4,100+ area, aligning with the marked TARGET zone. Key Points: • Trend on 15m remains bearish until a channel breakout • EMA 9 and EMA 50 show downward pressure • Watching for bullish structure shift near lower support zone • Break and retest above the channel could confirm trend reversal Bias: Bearish short-term → Bullish reversal potential at deeper support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hamza_Gold
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed, waiting for confirmation signals in the European session Overall, gold is in a corrective phase after the previous upward move. On H1, a clear Dow bearish structure (lower highs, lower lows) has formed, but the support area around 4,030 and the Fibonacci cluster below are still potential zones for a reversal buying force. Today's European session will be crucial to confirm: whether to continue a deep decline or bounce back according to the head and shoulders pattern forming on H4. Macro – Fundamental Brief The October Fed meeting minutes show a strong internal division: One group opposes rate cuts, wanting to maintain the current level. The other group supports cuts, even proposing further reductions in the December meeting. This lack of consensus reflects a high degree of monetary policy uncertainty, keeping defensive capital flows interested in gold. In the long term, gold only surges when confidence in the financial system weakens – the peak gold price is not a sign of prosperity, but a warning signal. Technical Analysis – H1 (trendline, Fibonacci, liquidity) The price is fluctuating below the short-term descending trendline, confirming the bearish phase is still in effect. The 4,082–4,090 zone is an “important liquidity zone” – where the price has reacted multiple times, currently acting as near resistance. The 4,029–4,031 cluster is crucial support: Coincides with technical support area + Fibonacci retracement level. Start of a large FVG running down to the 3,985 zone (Fibo 1.618 + psychological support). Above, the 4,129–4,130 zone is strong resistance (strong resistance on the chart); if the price surpasses and holds above this area, the Dow bearish structure will weaken significantly. Trading Scenario Reference BUY Scenario – buy at support / Fibonacci zone Logic: Price holds above support – Fibonacci, bottom-fishing capital appears. Entry BUY: 4,029–4,031 SL: 4,022 TP: 4,040 → 4,065 → 4,090 → 4,120 Only prioritize when the price reacts well at 4,029–4,031 (wick or clear reversal candle appears on M15–H1). If H1 closes below 4,022, this BUY scenario should be canceled. SELL Scenario – follow the current bearish structure (prioritize when trendline is not broken) Logic: Price retraces to retest resistance + descending trendline and is rejected. Entry SELL: 4,098–4,100 SL: 4,105 TP: 4,088 → 4,070 → 4,035 → 4,000–3,985 Only enter when the price hits the 4,098–4,100 zone and a clear rejection signal appears (pin bar/bearish engulfing). If H1 closes above 4,105 and breaks the trendline, stop all sell orders and reassess the structure. Notable Price Zones for Scalping 4,082 – 4,060 – 3,985 – 4,129 These zones can be used for short-term scalping based on price reactions, but reduce volume and close quickly. Important Note If the price is confirmed to close stably above the descending trendline and holds above the 4,090–4,100 zone, the priority will gradually shift to BUY setups, as a head and shoulders pattern (bullish reversal) is forming on H4. Conversely, if the 4,029–4,022 support is decisively broken, gold is likely to continue falling towards the FVG and Fibonacci 1.618 zone around 3,985. Which scenario are you leaning towards for gold today – retrace up to sell further or hold the bottom to bounce back? Leave a comment below the post and follow the LiamTrading channel for daily XAUUSD updates on TradingView.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th Good morning everyone, Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th. The ABC correction phase of gold is nearly complete, and the market is preparing to enter a new wave phase amidst a flurry of USD data today. Fundamental Analysis Today's focus remains on the US labor data: NFP (or revisions), Unemployment Rate, and Initial Jobless Claims. If the data shows a cooling labor market, expectations for the Fed to soon pivot to a rate-cutting cycle will rise, weakening real yields, putting pressure on the USD, and supporting gold prices. Conversely, "too good" data will strengthen the dollar, allowing for a short-term repricing move, potentially dragging gold down to lower liquidity zones before recovering. US session liquidity may be thin before the news release, making it prone to spikes due to algorithms and large flows simultaneously adjusting positions. Overall, the macro backdrop still favors "buying the dip" for gold, but you must accept strong volatility around news time. Technical Analysis On the chart, gold has completed an ABC corrective wave within a descending channel, part of a larger uptrend. The current descending channel only serves as a corrective leg after the previous upward wave; prices are trading above the "mean" area of the bullish structure, indicating the larger market structure remains bullish. Below is the liquidity zone / demand zone 4013–4015, coinciding with the previous low and the lower channel boundary – if there's another stop-hunt to this area, it is still considered an opportunity to join the upward move, as long as 4008 is not breached. Above, the 4086–4100 cluster is the decision zone: breaking and holding above here will confirm exiting the corrective channel, triggering an impulsive leg towards resistances 4132–4146 and further to 4187. In summary, the main bias remains bullish, prioritizing buy strategies at support zones or after breakout confirmation. Key Price Levels Resistance: 4086 – 4100 – 4110 – 4132 – 4146 Support: 4040 – 4030 – 4015 Trading Scenarios Buy Scenario 1 – Continuation Breakout Entry: 4086 SL: 4078 TP: 4100 – 4120 – 4140 Prioritize when price breaks up and retests 4086–4100 as a new support zone, confirming exit from the descending channel. Buy Scenario 2 – Deep Liquidity Sweep Entry: 4015–4013 SL: 4008 TP: 4030 – 4045 – 4070 Watch for strong price reactions at the demand zone, with pin bars or engulfing candles signaling order flow returning to buyers. Sell Scenario – Sell Reaction at Strong Resistance Entry: 4144–4146 SL: 4151 TP: 4132 – 4120 – 4100 Short-term sell strategy, leveraging the high supply zone if price rises straight up without sufficient accumulation. The medium-term upside target if the bullish wave develops as expected remains the 4187 area. What do you think of this scenario? Remember to follow Brian for daily gold insights and comment your views below to join the discussion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Exact Sciences Surge: Abbott Talks Signal Diagnostic ShiftNews of a potential acquisition by Abbott Laboratories propelled Exact Sciences (EXAS) stock nearly 24% higher on Wednesday. Market activity shifted dramatically following reports of advanced negotiations between the two healthcare giants. Abbott Laboratories, a diversified medical titan, reportedly seeks to acquire the cancer diagnostics leader. This potential union highlights a broader trend of strategic consolidation within the healthcare sector. Investors reacted swiftly, driving EXAS shares toward a 52-week high. The Catalyst: Strategic Acquisition Talks Recent reports indicate Abbott Laboratories and Exact Sciences are finalizing terms. While no deal is guaranteed, the market priced in a significant premium immediately. Exact Sciences’ valuation jumped, reflecting the strategic value of its assets. Abbott’s stock dipped slightly, a common acquirer reaction during buyout rumors. Industry Trends: Diagnostics Consolidation The diagnostics sector is undergoing a massive recalibration. Major players like Abbott are moving away from pandemic-era testing windfalls toward sustainable oncology solutions. Acquiring Exact Sciences offers immediate dominance in colorectal cancer screening. This aligns with industry shifts toward early detection and preventative care. Consolidation allows companies to scale R&D and distribution simultaneously. Geostrategy & Geopolitics: Healthcare Autonomy National health security is increasingly vital in a fragmented geopolitical landscape. Countries now prioritize domestic diagnostic capabilities to ensure supply chain resilience. A US-centric merger between Abbott and Exact Sciences strengthens the American healthcare infrastructure. It reduces reliance on foreign diagnostic supply chains. This moves critical cancer screening technology firmly under the umbrella of a robust US multinational. Business Models: Recurring Revenue Power Exact Sciences operates on a highly attractive recurring revenue model. Its flagship product, Cologuard, serves a vast, aging demographic requiring regular screening. Unlike one-off device sales, screening protocols generate consistent cash flow. Abbott likely values this predictability. The model creates a "sticky" ecosystem where patients and providers remain engaged over decades. Company Culture & Innovation Exact Sciences maintains a culture deeply rooted in relentless innovation. The company recently validated its Cologuard Plus test, demonstrating superior sensitivity. This commitment to product evolution keeps them ahead of competitors. Their R&D teams focus on multi-cancer early detection (MCED), a "holy grail" in diagnostics. Abbott would inherit this forward-thinking workforce. Patent Analysis: The IP Moat Intellectual property rights form the bedrock of Exact Sciences' valuation. The company successfully defends its technology, recently winning patent litigation against Geneoscopy. This legal victory solidifies their market monopoly on stool-DNA testing methods. An acquirer like Abbott gains a protected fortress, not just a product line. Macroeconomics & Economics The deal signals a return of "strategic buyers" despite high interest rates. While private equity has slowed, corporate balance sheets remain healthy. Abbott holds significant capital reserves ready for deployment. This transaction suggests that corporate leaders see current valuations as attractive entry points. It indicates broader confidence in the long-term economic resilience of the healthcare sector. Technology & Cyber: Data Integrity Modern diagnostics require robust digital infrastructure. Exact Sciences manages sensitive genetic data, necessitating advanced cybersecurity protocols. Their proactive Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure program exemplifies a mature tech stance. Abbott would acquire a secure, HIPAA-compliant data architecture essential for modern digital health integration. Management & Leadership CEO Kevin Conroy has effectively guided Exact Sciences from a penny stock to a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. His leadership emphasized clinical evidence and commercial execution. The management team built strong relationships with insurers and health systems. Abbott is likely buying this human capital and commercial prowess as much as the technology itself. Science & High-Tech: The DNA Edge At its core, Exact Sciences is a high-tech molecular biology firm. Their technology amplifies specific DNA biomarkers from non-invasive samples. This requires sophisticated chemistry and automated laboratory processes. The science behind Cologuard represents a high barrier to entry for competitors. Abbott secures immediate access to this cutting-edge genomic platform. Investor Caution Traders must exercise discipline. Deal talks can collapse over valuation or regulatory concerns. The 24% surge in prices is a high probability of success, leaving little room for error. If talks fail, the stock could retrace sharply. Investors should weigh the arbitrage opportunity against the risk of deal failure.
NASDAQ:EXASLong
by TradeThePool