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Fundamental Analysis

Robinhood - The third bearish crackdown!🏹Robinhood ( NASDAQ:HOOD ) will crash quite soon: 🔎Analysis summary: Since we witnessed a major botton on Robinhood in 2023, this stock has been rallying about +1,600%. But always after a major +250% rally, Robinhood corrected at least -40%. Therefore it is quite likely that we will see another similar pattern playing out soon. 📝Levels to watch: $150 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
NASDAQ:HOODShort
by SwingTraderPhilTV
28
Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (20 NOV)Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction 📊 Market Sentiment Market sentiment appears neutral to bullish right now, in my opinion. The FED may pause rate cuts in December, which previously contributed to selling pressure and hedging flows. However, with the U.S. government reopening last week, updated economic data will begin to flow again. If employment data weakens and CPI comes in low or stable, it could support renewed bullish momentum. NVDA beat earnings expectations and addressed AI bubble concerns clearly. AI demand remains strong, and their revenue growth continues to accelerate. U.S. tech firms turned notably green after the release, further boosting bullish sentiment. 📈 Technical Analysis Price is currently rising toward 613.5 following NVDA’s earnings results. A strong bullish candle close has appeared on NQ, indicating solid upward momentum heading into today’s session. 📌 Game Plan – Prediction I will be buying calls at the opening, targeting 613.5 first. After that, I will be targeting 625. If I see a 1H bearish close below the opening price, I will exit my positions, as I expect strong bullish momentum after the market opens. 💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile. ⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by UA_CAPITAL
1
Ray Dalio’s bubble warning aged fast today Ray Dalio’s warning not to “sell just because there’s a bubble” didn’t land today as a delayed September jobs report showing 119,000 new jobs cut into hopes of a December Fed rate cut. The S&P 500 swung from a 1.9% gain to a 1.1% loss, and the Nasdaq flipped from up 2.6% to down 1.5%. The S&P 500 chart now shows declining momentum with lower highs forming. That kind of engulfing behaviour can mark exhaustion phases in extended rallies. Bitcoin also unraveled, dropping nearly 5% and sinking back under 87,000 as liquidations accelerated. The current monthly candle could be confirming a potential shift in trend momentum after a multi-year climb.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull Markets
2
CRYPTO MARKET IN BIG TROUBLE! CRACK!!🔥 Crypto Bros… this is the LAST thing you ever want to see on your chart. The last time I warned about a MEGAPHONE CRACK back in July 2024, the entire crypto market dropped 31% — and that was while it was still in an uptrend. This time? This crack is far, far worse because it’s breaking the entire structure, not just a line. Breaking a trendline alone is whatever… But breaking a major structural boundary at this point in the cycle? You do NOT want to find out whether this is “the real one” or not. I’m issuing a major WARNING to crypto bulls. Your whole generation has been trained for 17 straight years to “Buy The Dip.” That conditioning is a massive disadvantage — and most of you don’t even know it. And those cute, colorful, meme-filled crypto charts made by 12-year-olds posing as traders? They aren’t going to save you. They’re going to massacre your account when the cycle actually breaks. You had your fun. Now it’s time to get off the Ferris wheel, step to the sidelines, and actually observe and learn — no matter where price goes from here. Over $1 trillion has already been wiped out. Don’t stick around waiting for the other $2 trillion to evaporate with it. Stay sharp. Stay humble. Stay alive. Sorry, but it has to be said by somebody! THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by RealMacro
JGB Selloff Flags Rising Fiscal RiskJapan 10Y Yields Hit 17-Year High: JGB Selloff Flags Rising Fiscal Risk Idea Summary Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has climbed to around 1.8% for the first time in more than 17 years, driven by concerns over an aggressive fiscal stimulus package and a deteriorating debt outlook. At the same time, ultra-long JGB yields are surging, signaling that investors are demanding a higher risk premium to hold Japanese debt. In this note, I focus on what this means for JGBs and JPY going forward. Macro Background The new government under PM Sanae Takaichi is pushing a large fiscal stimulus package, with total size reportedly above ¥20 trillion and additional budget issuance likely around ¥17 trillion. Investors worry that this will further weaken Japan’s already stretched public finances, with the debt-to-GDP ratio sitting near 240%. As a result, long-dated JGBs have been under heavy selling pressure, with the 40-year yield jumping to around 3.7% – its highest level since the bond was first issued. The market is now waiting for more details on the stimulus package and watching closely for any signals from the BoJ about the pace of future rate hikes or balance-sheet adjustments. Bond Market Technical View The 10Y JGB yield has clearly broken above previous resistance and is now trading in a strong uptrend, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. Ultra-long yields (20Y, 30Y, 40Y) are also pushing toward or testing multi-year highs, suggesting a continued steepening bias at the long end of the curve. As long as the yield holds above its recent breakout zone, dips are likely to be bought by investors who expect further fiscal slippage and limited BoJ support. Implications for JPY and Risk Assets Rising long-term yields and fiscal worries can be a double-edged sword for JPY: On one hand, higher yields can support the yen in theory. On the other hand, if investors see Japan’s debt dynamics as increasingly risky, they may demand a higher risk premium and sell both JGBs and JPY. For now, FX price action suggests that the yen is still under pressure, with markets more focused on fiscal concerns and the global rate backdrop than on BoJ normalization. Trading Idea (Conceptual Only, Not Investment Advice) Bias: Cautiously bearish on JGBs at the long end and still not convinced of a sustained JPY recovery. For JGBs, any short-term pullback in yields toward previous breakout zones may be an opportunity for traders who expect further steepening. For JPY pairs (e.g., USDJPY, GBPJPY), any rebound in the yen may be limited unless we see: Clear signals of more aggressive BoJ tightening, or A meaningful downside shock to global yields and risk appetite. Key Risks to This View A smaller-than-expected fiscal package or credible medium-term consolidation plan that restores confidence in Japan’s public finances. A surprise hawkish pivot from the BoJ that tightens policy faster than the market currently expects. A sharp global risk-off move that pushes investors back into JPY as a safe-haven currency and drags global yields lower. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:JP10YLong
by KrisadaYoonaisil
Crude Market Stalls as Prices StruggleCrude Market Stalls as Prices Struggle Fundamental Analysis 1. USOIL remains under pressure on persistent oversupply concerns, with weak economic activity weighing on demand. 2. This is further compounded by a stronger U.S. dollar, which continues to pressure oil prices. Technical Analysis 3. Technically, USOIL is trading within a descending channel, making lower swings while a bearish EMA stack confirms the prevailing downtrend. 4. The recent rebound lacked momentum and quickly slipped back below the EMA stack, suggesting it was only a short-term rally within a broader bearish trend, with no signs of a bullish reversal so far. Any rebound would be an opportunity to make a lower high. 5. The rejection of resistance around 61.50 signals renewed downside risk, opening the way for a potential move back toward the previous low near 55.00. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:USOILShort
by KrisadaYoonaisil
Amazon(NASDAQ: $AMZN) Invests $3B in New Mississippi AI Data HubAmazon.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMZN ) announced plans to invest at least $3 billion in a new data-center campus located in Warren County, Mississippi. The project will support Amazon Web Services’ expanding AI and cloud-infrastructure needs, reinforcing AWS’s position as the company’s fastest-growing and most profitable segment. The data-center development is expected to create more than 200 direct jobs at the site and support over 300 additional roles in the surrounding region. Amazon highlighted that the expansion will power next-generation AI workloads, machine-learning services, and global cloud capacity. The investment also deepens Amazon’s long-term footprint in the southeastern U.S., aligning with rising demand for high-compute environments across industries. This move follows a broader trend of hyperscale cloud providers accelerating infrastructure spending to compete for AI-focused enterprise customers. With AWS already serving as the global leader in cloud services, the investment signals Amazon’s intention to maintain a technological and commercial edge amid intensifying competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. Technical analysis: Price is pulling back from heavy resistance at $258 and correcting toward the ascending trendline support. This level acts as a significant weekly demand area and aligns with the broader structure guiding the uptrend. A strong bullish reaction from the trendline would likely set up another retest of the $258 highs. A clean break above that zone opens the door toward $280–$300, supported by long-term Fibonacci projections and sustained strength in AWS earnings. If the trendline level breaks, the next key support sits at the horizontal support that has carried Amazon’s stock since early 2021. Overall, the setup remains bullish as long as price holds above the trendline.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by DEXWireNews
11/20/25 - $sbet - Let's do some math, okay?11/20/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SBET Let's do some math, okay? - over here at Vrock Enterprises we like to use a tool called math - it helps make the decisions a little easier (go figure!) - so on a day like today - when people can't make heads and tails, you can make both SBET is overwhelmingly my largest position as of now even acknowledging another -25 to -30% potential drawdown - so here's the deal, you're buying ETH at a ~18% discount as of this writing, which is already $2.3k eth (the zone where we're like to see first support) - if we lose that support and let's imagine if that happens, this thing trades still at 20% discount (i've been doing this for 6 years, so expecting the gap to narrow is great, if happens, but let's not assume it), then you'd be down about 25-30% to $1.8k/eth which (while this could happen) is probably a place where it's a multi-generational (not just generational buy). - eth the asset is about $350B today. - it has so much adoption as i'll continue to write about, that it's almost funny it's *only* worth this amount as a hardened network that wall street will bring *most if not all* of it's products to in the coming 12-18 months (this isn't some 3 to 5Y story... this is a "now" story) - so when I think about fair value of ETH a few things (again i'll spell these out in more detail at another point) come to mind: 1/ it's very possible ETH becomes the network that settles most global finance in 5-10Y (not BTC). if that's the case ETH > BTC as money 2/ ETH has native yield embedded, unlike BTC which is 3-5% (in time), which is v attractive bc there's no counterparty risk 3/ you're getting the most development, developers, coordination on ETH over BTC today that means the quantum conundrum that will limit BTC's ultimate upside in a 3-5Y context (from today's perspective) is way less likely a hiccup for ETH and in fact, BTC can seed ETH into this event, realization so what's ETH worth today in my estimation? 5-7k. and next year? 10k. so i'm buying something that (with sbet) my implied upside is 100% in a bear case and can run 200-400% in a base/ bull and keep running and my downside here is probably 30% (considering bear case -50% (eth $1.25k on sbet at $5/shr) and more likely -20%) so let's call it -30%. so risk is -30% upside is 100-300%. honestly can't find anything even remotely close to this is stonklandia and i'm higher conviction ETH than i've been BTC in the past and NXT last year worth a look :) V
NASDAQ:SBETLong
by VROCKSTAR
2
Gold market remains Afloat Amid Deeper CorrectionThe gold market fulfilled its expected corrective phase, pulling back to mitigate the 4100 zone (4132) while maintaining its broader bullish structure. Current price action suggests a deeper retracement is underway, targeting 4008 to clear remaining imbalance zones. This move aligns with market anticipation ahead of the upcoming Unemployment Claims release, which may serve as the catalyst for renewed momentum. follow for more insights , comment and boost idea .
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Ak_capitalist
THE CYCLE ITS OVER! PACK-UP AND RUN! I have a lot of information on this chat measuring the length of each cycle from the first to this one. If anyone wants more about the last cycles I can publish about those too. Recently I notice a trend between this cycle top and the one in 2021. 1 the first one lasted around 265 bars but it was mostly just bitcoin, second cycle lasted 214 weekly bars, third cycle 201 bars.. that i believe is the market top that happened in October 2025 made this cycle 205 bars. its around the general trend. 2 2021 bullrun lasted around 45 bars from breakthrough to top (on blue), this cycle lasted around 48 bars from breakthrough to top (on blue) FUN FACT: BOTH CYLCES LASTED 45 WEEKLY BARS SINCE THEY BROKE THE LAST ATH TO MAKING A NEW TIME HIGH... 3 After ATH they went down to a diagonal support (in this cycle the market is breaking the support) then 2021 went up to a "dead cat bounce" an i think this time would be the same until we continue down. PEOPLE WAKE UP!!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by QuantumRod
Zoom Is Down 85% Since 2020. Here's Its Chart Ahead of EarningsZoom Communications NASDAQ:ZM sort of saved our jobs during COVID-19 (and saw its share price rise some 660% in the process), but the stock has fallen some 85% from its 2020 peak and is down year to date. Let's see what Zoom's chart and fundamental analysis say as the video-conferencing firm heads into earnings next week. Zoom Communications' Fundamental Analysis Zoom became a godsend for office workers during the pandemic, allowing them to meet via video while working from home. The app's popularity drove Zoom's stock up nearly 660% from its February 2020 low just before COVID began in earnest to a $588.84 high by October 2020. But shares have come back to Earth since then, closing Wednesday at $80.71 -- down 86.3% from their 2020 top and off 1.1% year to date. Now, Zoom is set to release fiscal Q3 results on Monday after the bell, with Wall Street looking for $1.44 in adjusted earnings per share on $1.21 billion of revenue. That would represent a 4.3% gain from ZM's $1.38 in adjusted EPS for the same quarter a year ago, with sales up roughly 3% from the $1.18 billion the company saw in the same period a year earlier. Interestingly, 24 of the 27 sell-side analysts that cover Zoom have revised their earnings estimates higher since the quarter began, while zero have cut their numbers. (Three analysts left estimates unrevised.) Even more interestingly, Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin included Zoom in a basket of 48 stocks he created in September that he saw as 2026 M&A candidates. Kostin put the odds of Zoom being involved in a deal at 15% to 30%. Zoom Communications' Technical Analysis Now let's take a look at ZM's chart going back some four months and running through Tuesday afternoon: Readers will see that Zoom has developed a double-top pattern of bearish reversal stretching back to August, as marked with red boxes above. This pattern's downside pivot stands just below $78, while the stock's 200-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a red line in the chart above) currently runs about a dollar higher at $78.70. Hence, this is the level where either strong support for the shares will likely show up or the stock will break lower. (As noted above, Zoom closed Wednesday at $80.71.) Additionally, Zoom has developed a triangle pattern, shaded in pink at the chart's right. But in this case, the triangle is really just a broad pennant pattern that's marked with diagonal black lines at the chart's right. The pennant appears to have come close to closing ahead of earnings -- a pattern that can signal an imminent volatility increase, but doesn't tell you which direction (up or down). So, Zoom has two patterns here: one signaling lower stock prices and the other pointing to increased volatility. Meanwhile, Zoom has already surrendered its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line) and its 50-day SMA (the blue line). This has probably cost the support of some swing traders and portfolio managers. However, losing the 200-day SMA -- $78.70 in the chart above, a level that ZM has yet to break -- would be the most significant technical loss of the three. Looking at Zoom's other key technical indicators, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart's top) is running just shy of neutral. That said, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart's bottom) isn't looking all that bullish. The histogram of the 9-day EMA has moved into negative territory, which is a short-term bearish signal. Additionally, the 12-day EMA (the black line) has crossed below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). While both lines remain in positive territory, the black line appears to be headed for the zero-bound. All of that is more or less bearish. An Options Option Many options traders who are bearish on Zoom heading into earnings but looking to manage risk might employ a bear-put spread in this scenario rather than shorting the stock. This strategy is composed of a long put along with a short put at a lower strike price, but with the same expiration date. Here's an example: -- Buying one ZM $79 put with a Nov. 28 expiration (i.e. after the earnings date). This cost about $2.50 at recent prices. -- Selling one Nov. 28 ZM $74 put for roughly $1. Net Debit: $1.50. This options trader would be laying out a net $1.50 to try to earn $5, for a $3.50 maximum gain should the trade work as expected. If it didn't, the trader's theoretical maximum loss would be the $1.50 net debit. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in ZM at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Options trading is risky and not appropriate for everyone. Read the Options Disclosure Document ( j.moomoo.com ) before trading. Options are complex and you may quickly lose the entire investment. Supporting docs for any claims will be furnished upon request. Options trading subject to eligibility requirements. Strategies available will depend on options level approved. Maximum potential loss and profit for options are calculated based on the single leg or an entire multi-leg trade remaining intact until expiration with no option contracts being exercised or assigned. These figures do not account for a portion of a multi-leg strategy being changed or removed or the trader assuming a short or long position in the underlying stock at or before expiration. Therefore, it is possible to lose more than the theoretical max loss of a strategy. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
NASDAQ:ZM
by moomoo
Google Stock (NASDAQ: $GOOGL) Rises on Nano Banana Pro UpdateGoogle parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:GOOGL ) introduced Nano Banana Pro, an upgraded version of its AI image-editing and generation platform powered by Gemini 3 Pro. The update improves text legibility inside AI-created images—one of the most persistent challenges for image models—and integrates deeper reasoning features from Gemini 3, enabling more consistent output and broader creative control. The tool will also be available across Google Search’s AI Mode, the Gemini API, Google Ads, and Flow, the company’s filmmaking platform. Free-tier Gemini users will receive limited access quotas, a move designed to increase usage while showcasing the improved capabilities. The launch comes just days after Google unveiled Gemini 3, a major release aimed at closing competitive gaps with OpenAI. According to The Wall Street Journal, the earlier launch of Nano Banana in August significantly accelerated user growth and retention, making this enhanced version a strategic release. While ChatGPT still leads in usage, Google’s rapid iteration suggests a strong push toward regaining market share across creative and enterprise AI applications. Technical Analysis: Alphabet shares have been bullish overall, recently breaking above a long-respected trendline to the upside. This breakout confirms ongoing upward momentum supported by improving AI fundamentals, rising cloud demand, and investor optimism around new product rollouts. The stock did pull back on Friday following the Nano Banana Pro announcement, but the technical structure remains intact. The trendline breakout continues to act as a strong foundational level, and buyers may re-enter if price revisits that zone. A sustained hold above recent highs opens room toward the next major target region, while failure to reclaim momentum could trigger a short-term retest before continuation. Overall, Google’s AI expansion supports the broader bullish bias, with fundamentals and technicals aligning for potential upside continuation.
NASDAQ:GOOGLLong
by DEXWireNews
1
Gold price analysis November 20Gold continues to show a solid reaction at the main trendline, indicating that the bullish structure is still maintained by organized buying. The market's continued respect for this support line is an important signal, keeping the possibility of extending the trend to the 4200 zone high. However, it is important to note: a H4 candle closing below the trendline will be the first sign confirming the weakening of the bullish momentum. At that time, the balance of forces will tilt towards the sellers and the price may correct deeply to the 3936 zone - the confluence of the next strong support. Recommended strategy: Activate BUY when the market shows a price rejection signal at 4041. Profit target: 4200. Risk management: H4 closes below 4041 → switch to SELL strategy, aiming at 3936.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Bellring Brands | BRBR | Long at $22.77Bellring Brands NYSE:BRBR , a consumer staples company focused on ready-to-drink protein shakes, powders, and bars. Its key brands are Premier Protein, Dymatize, and PowerBar. Technical Analysis Post-earnings, NYSE:BRBR fell through my "crash" simple moving average zone (green lines). This price area is often a location of algorithmic share accumulation. The final major stop is sometimes the my "major crash" zone (now between $15 and $20). However, the earnings results weren't terrible for $NYSE:BRBR. I think an overall market turn, recession announcement, or company debacle would be the only driving factors causing the price to hit near $15. Thus, in the near-term, there may be some temporary weakness, but the bounce today shows strength. Growth While slower than anticipated into 2026 (which many companies are reporting...), continued earnings and revenue growth into 2028 is anticipated: www.tradingview.com Health Cash king No long-term debt Very low bankruptcy risk (Altman's Z Score = 7+) Trading at a good 15x P/E Action NYSE:BRBR is still a high-growth company. I think the price movement recently has simply been a reset due to previous overvaluation. While the economy shows signs of weakness, the niche this Bellring Brands operates in is growing and shows strength. However, caution if there is a market downturn or recession announcement - $15 or lower isn't out of the question. Outside of that, though, continued growth may prop this company further beyond late 2025 / early 2026. Thus, at $22.77, NYSE:BRBR is in a personal buy zone. Targets into 2028 $30.00 (+31.8%) $39.00 (+71.3%)
NYSE:BRBRLong
by WorthlessViews
1
Jacobs Solutions (NYSE: $J) Extends Gains After Strong Q4 BeatJacobs Solutions (NYSE: $J) delivered a stronger-than-expected fiscal fourth quarter, reinforcing its momentum heading into 2026. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.75, beating the $1.67 consensus, while shares reacted with a 1.6% move higher. Revenue reached $3.2 billion, up 6.6% year-over-year and ahead of expectations. Adjusted net revenue landed at $2.2 billion, growing 5.8% YoY. The company’s backlog hit a record $23.1 billion, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.1x for both the quarter and the trailing 12 months—an encouraging sign of sustained demand across infrastructure, government services, and advanced technology projects. Adjusted EPS climbed 27.7% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA increased 12% to $324 million. GAAP results were influenced by mark-to-market adjustments tied to Jacobs’ past Amentum stake. CEO Bob Pragada emphasized strong execution, highlighting organic mid-single-digit revenue growth and notable operating margin expansion. The company’s FY25 performance allowed it to return a record $1.1 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Looking ahead, Jacobs forecasts adjusted EPS of $6.90–$7.30 for fiscal 2026, implying 16% growth at the midpoint and slightly above consensus expectations. Management also anticipates adjusted net revenue growth between 6% and 10%. Technical Analysis: Price action shows a sharp pullback toward a major support zone around the $124 region - a horizontal support, and beneath it lies an ascending multi-year trendline. This zone represents a potential accumulation area for long-term bulls. A successful retest to any of these levels could spark a rebound toward the $160s, with the $168 area acting as a major target. A failure to hold support, however, risks extending the correction toward trendline levels near $120. Overall, strong fundamentals, record backlog, and improving margins support the broader bullish structure, assuming technical support holds.
NYSE:JLong
by DEXWireNews
Can Michael Saylor be Margin Called? The answer is NO!This is the "Doomsday Scenario" that bears love to talk about. The short answer is: No. Under the current structure, Michael Saylor cannot be "margin called" in the traditional sense. However, while the mechanical risk of forced selling is near zero, the psychological risk to the market is massive. Here is the technical breakdown of why MicroStrategy (MSTR) is likely safe from a forced liquidation, even if Bitcoin crashes to $20k. 1. The "Margin Call" Myth (Why he is safe) People assume MicroStrategy has taken out massive loans using Bitcoin as collateral (like a home equity loan). If that were true, a price drop would force the bank to seize his Bitcoin. This is no longer the case. The Silvergate Loan is Gone: In the past, MSTR did have a Bitcoin-backed loan (with Silvergate Bank) that had a liquidation trigger around $21k. That loan was fully paid off years ago (March 2023). Current Debt = Unsecured: As of late 2025, MicroStrategy's debt consists almost entirely of Convertible Senior Notes. These are "unsecured" debts. What this means: The bondholders have no claim on the specific Bitcoin in the wallet. They cannot force Saylor to sell Bitcoin if the price drops. They only care about getting their money back when the bond matures (which is years away). No LTV Triggers: There are no "Loan-to-Value" maintenance requirements. Bitcoin could go to $1,000 tomorrow, and technically, no automatic sell order would trigger. 2. The Real Risk: The "Maturity Wall" (2027–2028) Saylor doesn't have to worry about price today; he has to worry about price on the maturity dates. His debt is structured like a ticking clock. He doesn't make monthly principal payments; he pays a lump sum at the end. The Danger Dates: He has billions in notes maturing in 2027, 2028, and 2030. The Scenario: If Bitcoin is trading at $30k in 2027, he won't have the cash to pay back the bondholders. The "Forced Sell": In that specific future scenario, he would either have to: Refinance (take a new loan to pay the old one—hard to do if Bitcoin is crashing). Issue more MSTR stock (diluting shareholders to pay debt). Sell Bitcoin (The last resort). Verdict: The "Forced Sell" risk is a 2027 problem, not a 2025 problem. 3. The "Infinite Money Glitch" (The 21/21 Plan) You might have heard of his new "21/21 Plan" (raising $42 Billion). This is actually his defense mechanism against a crash. How it works: He sells MSTR stock (Equity) to buy Bitcoin. Why it saves him: Equity has no "margin call" and no "payback date." If he raises $21B selling stock and Bitcoin goes to zero, the shareholders lose money, but the company doesn't go bankrupt. He is effectively shifting his risk from "Debt" (dangerous) to "Equity" (permanent capital). 4. Can he push the market down without selling? Yes. This is the subtle danger. Even if Saylor never sells a single Satoshi, MSTR can still crash the crypto market via "The discount loop." The Premium Implosion: Right now, MSTR trades at a massive premium (people pay ~$2.50 for every $1.00 of Bitcoin MSTR holds). The Crash: In a Crypto Winter, that premium can flip to a discount (trading below the value of the Bitcoin it holds). The Result: If MSTR shares crash harder than Bitcoin, hedge funds who are "Long Bitcoin / Short MSTR" (an arbitrage trade) might panic-sell real Bitcoin to cover their MSTR shorts. The volatility of his stock can destabilize the spot price of Bitcoin itself. Summary Forced Liquidation Risk: Near Zero. (No margin loans exist). Insolvency Risk: Low until 2027. Market Fear Risk: High. Saylor is not a "forced seller." He is a "stubborn holder." In a crash, he is more likely to dilute his shareholders to death (issuing more stock) than he is to sell his Bitcoin stack.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by undersun
GOLD rises amid uncertain signals from US economyOANDA:XAUUSD continued to rise in Wednesday's session, as investors increased their holdings of safe-haven assets amid the delay of US employment data due to the government shutdown and the market prepared for the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting. As of the morning of November 20, spot gold was trading around $4,078/ounce, up about $11, or 0.27%, from the previous day. Gold's rise coincided with the stabilization of global stocks after a sell-off related to concerns about artificial intelligence valuations. However, investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of Nvidia's business results and a series of US economic data due this week. Weakening labor market signals support OANDA:XAUUSD Data released on Tuesday showed the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits rose to a two-month high in mid-October, a sign that the labor market may be losing momentum. Against this backdrop, any signs of labor market weakness would reinforce expectations that the Fed may have to ease policy more quickly, providing support for gold, a non-yielding asset that benefits from lower interest rates. Market focus: Fed minutes and delayed jobs data Investors are turning their attention to the minutes from the Fed’s October meeting, due at 2 p.m. ET. Despite the 25 basis point cut at its most recent meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell continued to maintain a cautious stance, leaving open the possibility of a pause in easing if inflation risks return. Separately, the September jobs report, delayed by the government shutdown, is due out on Thursday. This is seen as an early indicator of economic growth strength, with Reuters forecasting non-farm payrolls to rise by around 50,000 jobs. Any weaker-than-expected figure could boost haven demand and continue to support gold prices. Rising interest rate cut expectations, a key driver of OANDA:XAUUSD According to CME FedWatch, the market now rates a 51% chance of the Fed cutting rates again at its next meeting, up from 46% in the previous session. This increase in expectations is the core factor triggering capital flows to gold, in the context of falling real yields and investors looking for value preservation as the growth outlook becomes more uncertain. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND SUGGESTIONS OANDA:XAUUSD After recovering from the bottom around $4,000, gold price hit the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $4,128 and was immediately rejected, showing that profit-taking pressure is still strong. • The main trend is still up, as the price is still in the medium-term uptrend channel and above the important MA line. • The 3,972 area (Fib 0.382) is acting as short-term support, accompanied by the MA line right below around 3,942. • Since it has not been able to break the 0.382 Fib level, gold is currently not in the best condition for a new uptrend. RSI has rebounded but has not yet exceeded 60, showing that the buyers have not fully returned, but there are no signs of strong weakness. SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4108 - 4106⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 4112 →Take Profit 1 4100 ↨ →Take Profit 2 4094 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3982 - 3984⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3978 →Take Profit 1 3990 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3996
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
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