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Fundamental Analysis

XAU/USD – Price Breaks Consolidation and Retests Downtrend LineXAU/USD – Price Breaks Consolidation and Retests Downtrend Line, Bearish Momentum Strengthens Gold continues to show a clear bearish structure on the H1 timeframe. After many hours moving sideways inside a tight consolidation box, price has broken below the lower boundary and is now retesting the descending trendline from above. This confirms that sellers are still dominating the short-term market structure. The breakout occurs in alignment with the broader downtrend, supported by declining highs and consistent rejections at the trendline. Volume increases during the breakdown suggest real selling pressure rather than a false move. Technical Structure Overview Trendline: Price retests the descending trendline and reacts immediately, showing strong selling interest. Consolidation Box: Previous range acted as temporary support but has now turned into resistance. EMA Behavior: Price continues trading below short-term EMAs, reinforcing bearish bias. RSI Signal: RSI remains below the midpoint, showing no signs of bullish divergence. Key Levels to Watch Resistance Zones 4023 – 4025: Retest zone at the broken consolidation range. 4040 – 4044: Higher resistance aligned with EMA clusters. 4050 – 4054: Major H1 resistance and previous supply zone. Support Zones 4011 – 4008: First short-term support area. 3999 – 3988: Stronger support with historical buying pressure. 3975 – 3967: Deeper support zone and Fibonacci confluence area. Trading Strategy for Today 1. Bearish Continuation Setup (Primary Plan) Entry Zone: 4019 – 4023 (retest of the broken range and trendline) Stop-Loss: Above 4028 – 4032 Target 1: 4008 Target 2: 3995 Target 3: 3978 This setup aligns with the dominant downtrend and offers a favorable risk-reward profile. 2. Alternative Bullish Scenario (Only if conditions change) A bullish recovery only becomes valid if: Price reclaims 4040 on H1 Candle closes firmly above the trendline and EMAs If this happens, price may attempt a move toward 4054 and 4065. Price Outlook As long as gold remains below the descending trendline, the path of least resistance continues to be down. Bears are in control, and any pullback toward resistance should be viewed as an opportunity to follow the trend. Remember to follow your plan and adjust position size carefully. If you find this analysis helpful, save it for later review or follow for more daily trade strategies.
FX:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
Gold prices may continue to decline; short positions are valid!The gold market opened relatively calmly this week, with prices encountering resistance at 4109 and trending downwards, remaining weak and oscillating below 4100. Rebounds were clearly weak, and the bears are currently in control. Regarding trading, the strategy of shorting gold near 4090 has yielded significant profits, providing multiple entry opportunities. This trade was very successful. I currently hold a short position at $4099, which I plan to continue holding, with a target price lower. From the current market perspective, the daily chart shows a wide range of fluctuations, and it is currently in the process of adjustment. There are no signs of a bottom in the short term yet. Short selling strategies are still applicable. You can continue to consider shorting gold in the 4080-4105 range. I will notify you again if the market changes! The above are my personal thoughts! If they are helpful to you or your ideas align with mine, please like and follow to show your support! All strategies have a limited lifespan. While referring to them, it's also important to closely monitor market changes. I will respond flexibly based on actual market fluctuations, and I will provide specific updates in the channel!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Market_Trading_Guide
Full Reset before Full SendWhy March 2025 Could See New Highs What's Happening Right Now? Everyone is freaking out right now, but this is actually creating one of the best buying opportunities we've seen. Bitcoin is trading around $95,600 after dropping about 24% from its peak of $126,000 in October. The Fear & Greed Index is at 10 (Extreme Fear) – and you know what they say? Be greedy when others are fearful. But, also, be patient and set limits. The thing is, most people don't understand the economics behind Bitcoin or how liquidity actually works in crypto markets. We're playing a completely different game than stocks here. The Real Cost to Mine Bitcoin (And Why It Matters) Here's where it gets interesting. The big mining operations are producing Bitcoin for around $26,000-$28,000 per coin, while less efficient miners saw costs spike to $114,842 in October 2025... That's a massive range, and it tells you everything about where the floor is. After the April 2024 halving, it now takes 854,400 kilowatt-hours to mine just one Bitcoin – that's about 81 years of electricity for an average home, just for one coin. That's a fun fact. No smart miner is going to sell at a loss when they're paying that much for electricity and equipment (GPUs, etc). They'll just hold and wait. This creates natural supply constraints. The Liquidity Trap Right now, the market is in what I call a liquidity trap. As Bitcoin crashed from $126K down to where we are now, all the leveraged traders got wiped out. We saw $870 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows in a single day – that's both panic selling and intelligent, planned shorting, not fundamental weakness. Here's what most people are missing: if Bitcoin drops to around $75K, it's going to unlock massive amounts of liquidity – I'm talking hundreds of millions, possibly billions of dollars that's currently locked up in long positions (Futures). When those long get liquidated, the shorts will likely reverse their positions, that money floods back into the market and creates a supply shock. Basic economics: limited supply + sudden demand increase = price explosion. Price Targets & When to Buy I think we'll see $89K very soon – possibly this week between Monday and Wednesday (November 17-19, 2025). But here's my recommended strategy instead of trying to catch the exact bottom: First Buy: $89K Put in about 30% of what you're planning to invest. This is still a good entry even though it's not the absolute bottom. Second Buy: $80K Another 35% here. This is where things get really interesting from a risk/reward perspective. Third Buy: $75K The final 35%. This is the sweet spot where all that trapped liquidity gets released. Remember, demand increases as the price drops, and miners won't sell below cost. That's your supply shock waiting to happen. What About MicroStrategy? MSTR has crashed about 40% and is now trading at only 1.06 times its Bitcoin holdings, down from 2.7 times. The stock is around $200-$237 now, way down from its November 2024 high of $543. My prediction: MSTR will probably hit the $140-$150 range, maybe even drop to $100-$120 (which is where it found strong support from March to September 2024). If we do see those lower prices, I'm going all-in on MSTX shares, not MSTR – the 2x leverage structure is better. The Macro Picture Fed rate cut expectations dropped from 90% to about 40%, which is why everything's selling off. But this is temporary sentiment, not permanent damage. The infrastructure is still being built, institutions are still coming in, and the fundamentals haven't changed. Bottom Line Be patient. Wait for the dips. Bitcoin will likely hit $89K this week, and from there we could see further drops to $80K and $75K. Each level is a buying opportunity. By March 2025, I expect we'll be making new all-time highs. The key is understanding that crypto operates on different rules than stocks. Liquidity and supply dynamics matter more than anything else right now. Good luck, Terrapins
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by Terrapins
EUR/USD 1.1584 | Fibo Confluence Setup in Line with the UptrendAnalysis – EUR/USD 1.1584 | Fibo Confluence Setup in Line with the Uptrend Context: The market is maintaining its primary uptrend, and the current price structure still has room to continue higher. Technical Analysis: 1️⃣ The overall trend remains steadily bullish, with no clear signs of reversal. 2️⃣ When drawing the Fibonacci retracement in the direction of the trend, the 0.5–0.618 zone overlaps with the key level around 1.1584, forming a strong confluence area. 3️⃣ This is a potential reaction zone where price may bounce upward if the market continues to respect its current structure. Expected Scenario: Monitor price action around 1.1584. If price shows weak bearish reaction or continuation signals here, the uptrend is likely to continue.
Long
by hungminskfibotrung
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure OANDA:XAUUSD XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) continues to drift lower, now trading around $4,030–$4,035, following a sharp decline from last week’s highs above $4,150. The 1-hour chart shows price pressing into a major support zone between $3,993–$4,005, which has historically attracted buyers. Immediate resistance lies at $4,079–$4,089, a supply region that capped upside attempts earlier. A recovery toward the resistance zone is possible if the support zone holds, though the broader structure remains corrective. A close below $3,989 would invalidate the rebound setup and expose downside potential toward $3,960. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Buy from support zone for a corrective rebound into resistance. Entry: $3,993 – $4,005 Stop Loss: $3,989 Take Profit 1: $4,079 Take Profit 2: $4,089 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 4.95 Bias is cautiously bullish from support, but sentiment remains fragile due to macro headwinds. 🌐 Macro Background Gold extended losses into Tuesday’s Asian session, trading near $4,030, weighed down by renewed U.S. Dollar strength and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. FXStreet reports: “Gold price declines below $4,050 as USD strength and hawkish Fed comments weigh on sentiment.” 【FXStreet】 USD Strength: The U.S. Dollar has strengthened for a third consecutive day, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers and pressuring the metal’s short-term outlook. Delayed U.S. Data & NFP Ahead: With the record-long U.S. government shutdown delaying official economic data, traders are now focused on Thursday’s NFP release, which may steer Fed expectations. Hawkish Fed Commentary: Officials including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid expressed concern about persistent inflation and signalled a preference for keeping rates steady. Rate Cut Expectations Drop: CME FedWatch shows rate-cut expectations for December falling to 45%, down from over 60% last week. UBS noted that the “totality of data” before the December meeting may still lean toward supporting a third rate cut this year. China Buying Gold: China added 15 tons to its gold reserves in September, providing medium-term support but insufficient to offset immediate USD-driven pressure. Overall, macro drivers remain mixed: strong USD and hawkish Fed weigh on gold, while central bank demand and uncertainty offer a buffer at lower levels. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $4,079 – $4,089 Support: $3,993 – $4,005 Psychological Level: $4,050 📌 Trade Summary Gold remains under pressure but is testing a major support zone around $3,993–$4,005. If this area holds, a corrective rebound toward $4,079–$4,089 is likely. However, continued USD strength or firmer Fed rhetoric could limit upside momentum. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
DATA PATTERNSData Patterns (India) Ltd. (currently trading near ₹3,085.90) – Overview Data Patterns (India) Ltd., headquartered in Chennai, is a leading defense and aerospace electronics solutions provider. Established in 1985, the company designs, develops, and manufactures advanced electronic systems for defense, aerospace, and meteorological applications. Its portfolio includes radar systems, electronic warfare systems, avionics suite testers, navigation systems, and communication subsystems. FY22–FY25 Snapshot • Sales – ₹462 Cr → ₹640 Cr → ₹780 Cr → ₹920 Cr Growth driven by defense modernization, radar systems, and electronic warfare contracts • Net Profit – ₹95 Cr → ₹125 Cr → ₹155 Cr → ₹185 Cr Earnings supported by scale, high-margin defense electronics, and long-term contracts • Operating Performance – Strong → Strong → Very Strong → Very Strong EBITDA margins improving with indigenous design and IP-led solutions • Dividend Yield (%) – 0.50% → 0.55% → 0.60% → 0.65% Consistent payouts alongside reinvestment into R&D and capacity expansion • Equity Capital – ₹11.20 Cr (constant) No dilution; strong promoter governance • Total Debt – ₹150 Cr → ₹140 Cr → ₹130 Cr → ₹120 Cr Gradual deleveraging supported by defense cash flows and export contracts • Fixed Assets – ₹350 Cr → ₹370 Cr → ₹390 Cr → ₹410 Cr Capex focused on manufacturing upgrades, R&D labs, and defense electronics facilities Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends Promoter holding ~45% FIIs/DIIs actively invested due to strong defense theme and government push for indigenization Public float ~55%, with delivery volumes reflecting long-term positioning by defense-focused funds Business Growth Verdict Data Patterns is scaling across radar, electronic warfare, and avionics systems with strong defense client stickiness Margins improving via indigenous IP-led solutions and high-value contracts Debt is declining steadily with strong operating cash flows Capex supports long-term competitiveness in defense electronics and aerospace Management Highlights • FY25: Executed large radar and electronic warfare contracts; expanded avionics and communication portfolio • Sustainability: Focus on indigenous design, reducing import dependency in defense electronics • Digital: AI-enabled defense systems and predictive analytics for mission-critical applications • FY26 Outlook: 12–15% revenue growth, PAT expected to cross ₹210 Cr Final Investment Verdict Data Patterns (India) Ltd. offers a mid-cap defense electronics story built on indigenous design, IP-led solutions, and government-backed demand. Its improving profitability, disciplined capital structure, and expanding client base make it suitable for accumulation by investors seeking exposure to India’s defense modernization and aerospace theme. With strong execution and global reach, Data Patterns remains a durable compounder in the defense electronics space.
NSE:DATAPATTNSLong
by TechnicalAnalystSucrit
XAUUSD Trading plan- 18th Nov 2025Price has broken 4035 support, retested, and continued lower — confirming trend continuation. Momentum + MACD histogram still bearish, volume increasing on down candles. This is a sell-the-rally market. PRIMARY BIAS: SELL Trend: Down Momentum: Bearish Structure: Lower highs + lower lows MACD: Under zero Volume: Bearish-dominant SELL SETUP (HIGH PROBABILITY) Entry • 4035 – 4042 (ideal retest zone) • Alternative smaller pullback: 4028 – 4030 Stop-Loss: • 4056 Take-Profit Targets: • TP1: 3998 • TP2: 3978 • TP3: 3955 (extended) Why: Price failed to reclaim 4050 and is making fresh lows. Market structure favors continuation lower. BUY SETUP (ONLY IF MARKET SHOWS A STRONG BOUNCE) Buy only if price holds 3990–4000 and gives bullish rejection candles. Entry: • 3995 – 4002 Stop-Loss: • 3982 Take-Profit: • TP1: 4020 • TP2: 4035 Why: 4000 is a psychological level — but trend is still bearish, so this is counter-trend.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by nadeem0014
It's not that the market is good.We made the right call.Federal Reserve Governor Robert Waller stated that he supports another rate cut at the December meeting due to growing concerns about a sharp slowdown in the labor market and employment. Waller said, "I'm not worried about accelerating inflation or a significant rise in inflation expectations. My focus is on the labor market. After several months of weakness, the September jobs report later this week or any other data in the coming weeks is unlikely to change my view that another rate cut is necessary." Waller specifically noted that he favors another 25 basis point cut. He stated, "I'm concerned that restrictive monetary policy is putting pressure on the economy, especially its impact on low- and middle-income consumers. A rate cut in December would provide additional protection against a faster weakening of the labor market and move policy in a more neutral direction." At the same time, he indicated that price data suggests tariffs will not have a long-term impact on inflation, and another rate cut would be a risk management approach. The overall tone was neutral, and gold's technical indicators also showed a downward breakout. The next step is to continue the downward trend with consolidation, and the 4000 level will soon be tested. I will focus on the timing of shorting here. The price is severely oversold in the short term, so aggressive shorting is not advisable. The first resistance level to watch is the 4050-4070 area, followed by the 4100 level. Support lies at 4000-3980; a break below this level could see a further 100 USD drop to the 3900-3880 area. The Bollinger Bands on the daily chart are gradually tightening, awaiting the release of the non-farm payroll data to determine the medium- to long-term direction. Currently, the overall strategy remains to follow the technical trend and sell on rallies. For strategy: short gold in batches at 4050-4070 with a target of 4020-4000 (hold if it breaks through). A second short entry point is at 4095-4100. For a short-term long opportunity, watch the 4000 level (short-term counter-trend long positions should target a 15-20 USD profit).
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Daniel_PrimeFX
11/17/25 - $ethusd - Zoom out.11/17/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: BITSTAMP:ETHUSD Zoom out. - does this chart look bearish to you? - the scale chain with the most traction today is eth hands down - L2s are the new "L1" and eth is becoming the settlement layer L0 - wall street loves it - the retail "missed bitcoin buying zcash" crowd just doesn't get it, oddly - native staking - use cases out the wazoo - chart looks, honestly, great (zoom out!) - rarely do you get the benefit of so many years of adoption, domination and now up coming catalysts and the px remains a relic of the past because people are so behind-hurt "muh alt sea-zon" - eth isn't an alt - eth is the S&P of the blockchain world - bitcoin is gold - eth is the nasdaq onchain - and this party is in inning 1 - plan accordingly - if you r using leverage or need returns "tomorrow" hfsp - this is a hold, accumulate, hold, accumulate and patience will be rewarded - stack sats, stack eth... chill see u on the otherside of 2025 homie, i like this winner at $3k. smooth brainer. V
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by VROCKSTAR
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Zones, Setups for Tue (Nov 18th)ES experienced a notable decline, concluding the day with a sharp downturn but managed a late-session rebound off a significant demand zone. At this juncture, it appears to be a robust corrective phase within an overarching uptrend, with a reasonable probability of a bounce or a range-bound trading day ahead, barring any unexpected developments from data releases or commentary from Federal Reserve speakers. Looking ahead to tomorrow, November 18, 2025, the economic calendar is unusually packed for a Tuesday, as various U.S. data are set to be released following delays caused by a government shutdown. Key indicators to watch that could influence ES during the New York session include the import and export price indexes for October at 8:30 AM ET, industrial production and capacity utilization figures also for October at 9:15 AM ET, and the NAHB housing market index for November at 10:00 AM ET. Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials, including Barr, Waller, Williams, and Kashkari, are scheduled to speak throughout the day. The market is particularly attuned to their insights regarding the likelihood of another rate cut, especially in light of the recently released October FOMC minutes and this week’s jobs report. Given the abundance of potential market-moving information, I would consider the period from 9:15 to 10:15 AM ET as a critical window for "headline risk" tomorrow. The recent market decline can largely be attributed to macroeconomic factors: The S&P 500 cash index ended the day down approximately 0.9%, with the Dow falling around 1.2% and the Nasdaq declining by about 0.8%. This pullback has moved the indices further away from their all-time highs established last month. The selling pressure was particularly acute among mega-cap technology stocks and the AI sector. Major players such as Nvidia, Apple, Palantir, and AMD faced heavy trading as investors began to question whether the recent surge in tech stocks, driven by AI enthusiasm, had outpaced underlying fundamentals ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release on Wednesday. Market sentiment was further dampened by a noteworthy prediction from Stifel's chief strategist, who suggested a potential 5% drop in the S&P 500, targeting a level around 6,350 in the coming months. This outlook was based on concerns regarding high valuations and uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s future policy as delayed economic data begins to materialize. Interestingly, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped slightly towards ~4.13% , indicating that today’s selloff was more of a de-risking/profit-taking maneuver specific to equities rather than a reflection of widespread risk aversion typically signaled by bond market movements. From a technical perspective on the ES futures: Intraday trading patterns reflected a continuation of last week’s trend of lower highs and lower lows. Prices faltered near the 6,800–6,805 mark during the overnight session before entering a clear downtrend through the morning. The volume accelerated during the late-morning selloff, ultimately reaching a low around the 6,658–6,660 band, which coincides with established daily demand zones. Following this drop, we observed a pronounced shift in behavior: significant buying volume surged at the lows, leading to a rejected price at that demand zone and a controlled short-covering rally back above 6,690, approaching the 6,700–6,705 range as the day closed. The Nasdaq exhibited a similar trajectory, with a heavy selloff subsequently followed by a recovery. Structurally, today’s activity reflects: A strong continuation of downside movement, stemming from last week’s lower-high structure and macro-driven de-risking, culminating in a liquidity flush into a previously identified demand pocket followed by short-covering toward the close. From a broader perspective, is this the beginning of a genuine downtrend? On the daily chart, ES remains within a larger uptrend originating from the summer lows. A higher peak above 6,900 was established in late October, with the current pullback representing a decline of approximately 3–4% from that peak. Today's trading reached the 6,650–6,670 support region, which previously served as a vital higher low space, before closing back above it. Daily momentum indicators have rolled over but are beginning to flatten, indicating they are not yet deeply oversold. In contrast, the shorter-term 4-hour and 1-hour views present a more bearish outlook: a sequence of lower highs has formed, and the retest of prior higher low levels appears to be underway. Short-term moving averages have shifted downward, and 4-hour momentum remains negative, albeit with initial signs of a slight positive divergence compared to new price lows. In summary: I interpret this phase as a significant corrective downswing within a larger uptrend rather than the onset of a new bear market. The potential for a more substantial correction exists, particularly if Nvidia’s earnings disappoint or if the run of delayed economic data proves weak. However, the day's trading indicates more of a necessary adjustment rather than the onset of a catastrophic decline, aligning with institutional views that this pullback signifies a "healthy reset" following a robust advance, rather than an indication of a market bubble bursting. Should ES close below the 6,650 mark on a daily basis and subsequently begin to print lower highs under that level, I would increase my assessment of the risk of a transition into a more enduring downtrend, with targets around the 6,350–6,400 range over the coming weeks, echoing Stifel's projections. For the time being, however, buyers continue to defend this crucial daily support zone. Key zones to monitor for tomorrow, in the futures market: I identify the following support zones: 6,658–6,650: This region marks today’s New York PM low and aligns with the prior day’s low. It serves as the first critical intraday support level. As long as ES maintains closes above this area on 1-hour and 4-hour charts, I consider the movement to be a corrective phase rather than a broader downtrend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Even The Most Accomplished Make Mistakes $Goog [Berkshire]Berkshire Hathaway made an entrance into the Mag 7 (Excluding Apple) with its purchase of Alphabet / Google I believe that this was a mistake solely based on the fact that the majority of the tech industry is extremely overvalued. While Googles Valuation at least in my opinion is justified considering how strong Its business model is with its High Margin Reoccurring Subscription models (Google Cloud),(YouTube Premium),(Google Workshop),(Google Play) to name a few and how Dominate it is in Ads with YouTube / Chrome. It also Dominates Web Search let alone the majority of people saying they will "Google something" it sounds stupid but its a good mental metric on how people think of search. Google has built Search / web ecosystem to complement each other and force you to use there services in one way or another you are using there web ecosystem everyday from Google maps, to Google Docs or Gmail, they made you dependent on there services, Especially the younger generation (GenZ) is growing very dependent on Google Maps which may be free but shows you the grip they have on peoples web use. The Primary issue I have with Berkshire Hathaway entering at these prices is generally the markets are indiscriminate if the mag 7 or tech industry has a red day no matter how strong Google may be that will bring them down too. ----------------------- My Personal Thesis on Google: I am very bullish on several areas of Alphabet Including but not limited to Google Cloud, YouTube, Its subscription Services, Its high Margin software business model. Most Importantly to me is There Robotics Section Deepmind and Gemini Robotics. Robotics is underappreciated and my personal belief is that it is the Next AI like boom but we are very early to this. Robotics has use cases in every industry from Solving lack of labor issues and an aging workforce / population especially in western countries Robots can easily pick up this slack and they will greatly benefit from Artificial intelligence Google / Alphabet has the money and cashflow to heavily invest in this area maybe not creating the physical humanoid robots but they can definitely excel in the software section of it. Segments like Waymo are also interesting and bullish. Google is also massively profitable has very little debt, and an extremely solid balance sheet. ----------------------- Risks: I Believe the biggest Risk for Alphabet once again is that The American Tech Sector is extremely Overvalued, I Also See moderate amount of risk being that Google is such a monopoly that leaves it open for Antitrust Suits. ----------------------- Business Model: Google Is Vertically Integrated its Business was closely tied to the AI Boom being one of the Big 3 with its AI spending. People Disregard its extremely impressive moat it possesses having one of the strongest moats in tech let alone in the history of business. ----------------------- Fundamentals: Cash: US$98.50b Debt: US$26.60b Equity: US$386.87b Total Liabilities: US$149.60b Total assets: US$536.47b Net Margins: 32.23% ----------------------- Metrics: Return On Equity: 32.1% Return On Assets: 22.5% Return On Capital Employed: 28.8% ----------------------- Valuation: Price to Sales: 8.9x Price To Earnings: 27.7x Price To Book: 8.9x ----------------------- Disclaimer: I am not Initiating buy, Sell or Hold Opinions. I Only make these posts for Conversation. I am not a financial Expert or an Analyst.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by BullishCanadianInvestor
Jobless Market boom!📉 Job Openings Are Nowhere Near Where They Should Be — and QQQ Is Laughing in Their Face If you map the post-GFC job-growth trend from the 2009 bottom, we should be sitting at **11 million job openings** today. Even if you throw out the 2022 spike as a COVID distortion, we’re still at **just 7 million**. That’s a **massive shortfall** — and nowhere close to a healthy labor market. Meanwhile, QQQ has historically **tracked** job openings… but this time it’s **completely detached** and gone **vertical** instead. You can argue feelings, vibes, narratives, bar-stool opinions — but the **data** is screaming one thing: **We are in a bubble.** Like it or not. I can only show you the evidence. What you choose to do with it is your business. But here’s my advice, blunt and simple: GTFO and STFO No Matter where prices go! . Nobody is forcing you to play hero at the top of a cycle, trying to cosplay Warren Buffett for a week. Most of you are under 40. Meaning you were maybe 20–23 years old during the last real recession and bear market. You have *no idea* how fast you can lose money when the trend truly dies. You’ve spent 17 straight years being trained to “Buy The Dip,” as if markets only go one direction — up. That’s not your fault… But you’re about to learn what a real cycle feels like. And it’ll be **sooner, not later.** When the cracks appear, you’ll start doubling down… rotating into new “opportunities”… trying to pick bottoms… revenge trading… chasing cute stories… Repeating the same lines every bull market teaches: “Money on the sidelines,” “This is the bottom.” “It’s oversold,” “Time to load up,” “You have to be in for the bad to enjoy the good.” All of it is designed to **soften your fear** and **trigger your greed** right before the trapdoor opens. Stay sharp. The data doesn’t lie — people do. Sorry, but it has to be said by somebody! THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep climbing. If you enjoy the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Drop a solid comment Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
FRED:JTSJOLShort
by RealMacro
4
Gold: Watch Resistance at 4070–4114 Ahead of NFPGold dropped below 4010 during yesterday’s late session but quickly rebounded afterward, and many traders should have captured that long opportunity. For today’s session, the main focus remains on whether the 4000 psychological level can hold. Key resistance levels to watch: 4070 (first resistance) 4082–4091 / 4097–4104 Major resistance at 4110–4114 The 4020–4000 zone may see repeated fluctuations, but in the short term it will continue to attract buying interest. Therefore, buying on dips still carries a relatively high probability of success. If price breaks below 4000 again, pay close attention to: 3986–3966 zone 3932 support These areas represent the origin of the recent rebound. Previously trapped short positions are likely to cover and reverse into longs once they get out, while trapped longs above 4200 may also add positions to lower their average cost—both forces combined could provide solid support for another rebound. Once gold returns above 4100, caution is necessary: Watch 4070 as the key support during any pullback If this level holds and the upcoming NFP report does not pressure the bulls, the market may attempt another move toward 4200 However, if the data turns out bearish, multiple catalysts could empower the bears, leading to another downward move to retest the critical 3886 support level Overall, the short-term outlook remains dominated by key support/resistance interactions, while the medium-term direction depends on whether 4000 holds and whether upcoming macro data can revive bullish sentiment.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
NAS100 Future: The Model #1 Bounce at CRTL SupportTimeframe: 15M | Model: CRT Model #1 / Turtle Soup Reversal The Nasdaq Index is presenting a high-probability Candle Range Theory (CRT) setup after an aggressive drop. The price action perfectly encapsulates the Manipulation (Candle 2) phase and is setting up for the explosive Distribution (Candle 3) move. The market has completed a textbook Turtle Soup (TS), aggressively pushing below the structural support to liquidate short-term positions. This hunt was contained by the confluence of the CRTL (Candle Range Theory Low) and a strong underlying Fair Value Gap (FVG). Here’s the step-by-step breakdown (The CRT Checklist): Liquidity Sweep: The deep wick confirms the Turtle Soup, clearing the stops below the previous support area around 24,862.53. Confluence: The reversal attempt is happening right off the FVG area, giving high confidence to the long thesis, as outlined in the CRT Secrets Series (Episode 5: Key Levels). The Trigger: We are now waiting for the final confirmation—the bullish Model #1 candle close. This candle must reverse the market structure and close decisively above the manipulation low (back into the range). Targets: Primary Objective (CRTH): The target is the CRTH (Candle Range Theory High) at 25,217.65, aiming to fill the liquidity above the initial range high. Mindset: As the chart suggests, this reversal setup has the potential for a swift expansion move, seeking higher liquidity pools. Discipline: Avoid the temptation to enter early. We must wait for the Model #1 candle to close and confirm the shift in control from sellers back to buyers. Trade what you see, not what you think! Trade Smart. Trust the Candle Close. Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:NAS100FTLong
by MrYounity
1
Oh how the bulls turn in to bears every time! I love the bear traps. We never did reach an actual euphoric stage. Hmmm may be nothing, but if a trap is confirmed then we will see a lot of bulls that turned into bears crying along with the general bear population. Many may sell into fear, and uncertainty, and disbelief of one of the worlds biggest bear traps created by the money men, may actually not be a shock to some if the markets decide to turn back which is still probable. Technical Analysis is just probabilistically at this moment in time we are looking at a bear market and potential continuation of one along with phycological anger and fear, or just a bear trap. One of the two will happen. The sentiment in the internet world has been nothing but depressing. LMAO! None of this crazy talk is financial advice. Just a quick look into the phycology of the masses. I see a lot of fear. Fear is a great indicator.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoVallster
1
XAUUSD (Gold): High-Conviction Model #1 BounceTimeframe: 4H | Model: CRT Model #1 + FVG Confluence We are witnessing a textbook CRT setup on Gold, signaling that the aggressive distribution phase may be near exhaustion. The market has delivered exactly what we look for: a deep liquidity hunt into a high-value support zone. The price has executed a perfect Turtle Soup (TS), pushing below the prior structural low (CRTL) to clear short-term stops. This decisive run for liquidity then met an immovable object: the Fair Value Gap (FVG). This is the Manipulation (Candle 2) phase in action. According to the CRT model, we are now poised for the explosive Distribution (Candle 3) phase, where the real money is made. Here is the trade thesis (The CRT Recipe): Key Level Touch: Price stabbed the CRTL/TS zone and respected the FVG area around $4,032. The Trigger (Model #1): We must wait for the Candle 3 entry confirmation. We need to see a strong Bullish Reversal Candle (Model #1) close decisively above the manipulation low, confirming that the smart money has finished accumulating positions. Entry Strategy: Entry confirmation comes with the close of that key reversal candle, placing our stop loss safely below the Turtle Soup point. Targeting Liquidity: The primary objective is the CRTH (Candle Range Theory High) at 4,211.435, aiming to fill the void and run the liquidity pools above the current range. As the CRT Secrets states: "Master the range, master the markets." Patience is the non-negotiable step here—wait for the Candle Close! Trade Smart. Trust the Process. Greetings, MrYounity
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrYounity
EUR/USD: The Hunt is On - Looking for the Model #1 BounceTimeframe: 4H | Model: CRT Model #1 / Turtle Soup Reversal We are seeing a classic Candle Range Theory (CRT) setup currently unfolding on EUR/USD, indicating that the recent aggressive downside move is nearing a critical reversal point. The market has completed a Turtle Soup (TS), running below the prior consolidation lows to aggressively hunt for liquidity (stops). This move down has stabbed directly into an established Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is serving as a powerful magnet and potential support zone for smart money accumulation. Here’s the breakdown of the trade plan: Liquidity Grab: The price drop broke below the CRTL (Candle Range Theory Low) and tapped the high-probability FVG zone. This is the "Manipulation" phase (Candle 2). The Trigger (Model #1): We are now patiently waiting for the confirmation signal—the Model #1 entry. We need to see price close strongly above the thick, down-closing candle that trapped the sellers at the low. Entry Confirmation: An aggressive move back above the previous swing low (CRTL + TS line) is our final confirmation that the market is ready to reverse into the "Distribution" phase (Candle 3). Targets: Target 1 (CRTH): The main objective is the CRTH (Candle Range Theory High) at 1.16081, aiming to fill the vacuum created by the initial drop. Target 2 (Above): Beyond 1.16081, the path is clear for a move to seek liquidity above the current range. Mindset: This is a high-conviction trade IF we get the Model #1 confirmation. The pairing of Turtle Soup + FVG at a key structural low is exactly where smart money enters. Do not chase the entry; wait for the confirmation candle close before acting. Trade Smart. Trade CRT. Greetings, MrYounity
Long
by MrYounity
BTC: 82 804.29 — The Price the Market Remembers.🏷 BTC 🏷 17.11.2025 🏷 Capital Sector. Price Slice. System of Intelligent Anticipation. 🏷 82,804.29 — As of publication, this price has not been reached. You must understand: the market has prices — and each has its own timeframe of execution. Such is the mechanics of the market. One price may execute on the 1D timeframe; another, on the 1M. The retail sector must trade from levels with risk discipline — or comprehend the market, its mechanics, and move toward the price. You must understand that a price is being fulfilled — and allow the instrument to deviate from your target, creating momentum and distance toward its realization — then capture the move on significant, higher timeframes. ATH, bear market, or bull market — these are emotions. Timeframes, patience, and strategy — these are your allies. Some paint decor and cling to indicators — but you must understand: the institution knows. Large capital paints the data behind your indicators. With one hand, it aids others; with the other, it drives you into losses. The liquidation machine understands technical analysis and the behavioral factors of the masses. Anticipatory markings — dynamic prices — outpace algorithms. By applying observation and statistical rigor, you can avoid being deceived by the theater of market makers — and take your move. The trend for this week, as of publication, is defined by the price of 98,200. Over the coming days, we will advance above this level in the long zone, and decline below it in the short zone. Upper targets: the instrument is directed toward the price sector of 112K–118K. Beyond this range, the probability of executing unfulfilled prices within this period is minimal. Afterward, the instrument will continue its decline to collect liquidity and execute the prices that remain pending. Instrument volatility averages 15–18%, distributed equally in both directions. In the prior publication, 88,194.49 was established as the decisive zone — confirmed by statistical behavior of institutional capital. Our advantage lies not only in analysis — but in the price sector we define in advance. Until these prices are executed, the dynamic marking remains active. We do not predict the market. We record its reality. Please excuse any stylistic imperfections—English is not my native language. I write not to perfect form, but to reveal substance. My authority lies in the structure of the market, not in syntax.
Short
by Bolzen_Market_Institute