Gold market overviewGold opened the Asian session by mitigating the 3660 mild imbalance, with price action extending to clear 3644. Within the ongoing bullish trajectory, momentum is now building with eyes set on 3669 as the next upside target.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 3644
Intraday Demand: 3660
Upside Target: 3669
Bias: Bullish continuation within the prevailing trend
Fundamental Analysis
BTC.D4-Hour Chart
BTC dominance has executed a clear 5-wave decline on the 4-hour timeframe with strong bearish momentum.
watching the 50–65% Fibonacci retracement zone for potential relief rallies. Long entries are best around major support at the lower Fibonacci bands (51-53%), targeting a bounce back toward 57–59% whih price is currently targeting.
For shorts, entries near resistance at the 58–59% zone align with a likely rejection in a continuing downtrend; a breakdown below 54% may accelerate altcoin season rotation.
Daily Chart
On the daily, technical indicators like RSI and MACD have confirmed the bearish trend in dominance, underscoring persistent selling and capital rotation to altcoins.
Effective long DCA entries are typically at significant structural supports, currently found between 50–52% dominance for a technical reversal play.
Short entries on dominance are best placed near resistance after relief rallies, particularly between 59–61% if price retests these zones and fails to break out.
So watch out for the minor pullback back today upward move to 58-59 levels, then expect alts to start moving back up
General Mills Holds Firm in a Challenging EnvironmentBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
General Mills (Ticker AT: GIS.US), one of the U.S. food industry giants, has reported results that show resilience despite difficulties in its main market. In North America, where much of its business is concentrated, volumes declined by 16 percentage points, reflecting weaker consumer demand and competitive pressure. Even so, the company has chosen to maintain its annual guidance, which has been interpreted as a sign of confidence in its ability to deliver.
In the quarter, net sales fell 6.8% to $4.52 billion, a negative figure but one that still came in better than analyst consensus expectations. This detail helped soften the market reaction, which could have been more severe.
On the positive side, the performance of the U.S. pet food division stood out, rising 6% and confirming this segment as a key growth driver for the company. The international business also showed strength, advancing 6%, which helps diversify risk against the slowdown in its domestic market.
From an investment perspective, General Mills remains a defensive stock within the consumer staples sector, supported by a solid brand portfolio and a geographic diversification strategy that provides stability. However, the decline in North American volumes remains a warning sign, as it sets the tone for what could be a year of margin pressure.
Technical Analysis of General Mills (Ticker AT: GIS.US)
Since May 2023, General Mills has been in a clear downtrend, with a brief pause in September 2024 and subsequent failed recovery attempts in March and April 2025. Since July, the stock has been in a consolidation phase, trading in a narrow range with support at $49.72 and immediate resistance at $51.04, reflecting short-term indecision.
Key technical levels to watch are:
Critical supports: $48.29 (yearly low) and $46.36 (previous low), which represent key areas to hold in order to avoid further deterioration in price action.
Relevant resistances: a breakout above $56.38 could pave the way toward $65.94, marking a shift into a more constructive bullish scenario.
As for indicators, the RSI remains in neutral territory, reflecting the absence of overbought or oversold conditions, while the MACD is beginning to show signs of recovery from negative territory, suggesting a potential short-term turnaround.
Meanwhile, the ActivTrades US Market Pulse currently points to an extreme Risk-On environment in the U.S., characterized by strong appetite for risk assets, broad-based equity gains, and declines in safe-haven assets. However, this wave of optimism contrasts with the defensive nature of General Mills, which historically performs better in periods of greater uncertainty.
General Mills Holds Its Ground as a Defensive Play
General Mills maintains its profile as a defensive stock, backed by a diversified portfolio and growth drivers such as its pet food and international businesses. Nevertheless, the drag from North American volumes and margin pressure calls for caution.
Technically, the stock appears to have found a floor and is currently in neutral territory, awaiting a decisive breakout. As long as it holds above its critical supports, the likelihood of a rebound toward resistance levels remains plausible, though only a breakout above $56.38 would confirm a more solid trend reversal.
In a market environment dominated by extreme risk appetite, General Mills may take a backseat compared to more cyclical or growth-oriented assets. Even so, it remains an attractive option for investors seeking stability and exposure to the consumer staples sector.
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BTC Shorts DXY tapped into Monthly Low, cleaned out sell-side, and is now pushing toward the 100.2 Buy Side Liquidity.
BTC at the same time is running into daily a supply area.
The setup is simple: if DXY continues higher into buy-side liquidity, BTC is likely to reject from this zone and retrace lower, with 107k being the next obvious draw on liquidity.
XAUUSD – Primary Trend: SELL TodayTechnical Analysis
Gold yesterday reacted repeatedly around the 363x zone (three times) but was unable to break decisively lower. This indicates that the support in this area remains significant. However, selling pressure has been persistent and fairly strong.
This morning, the upward move almost absorbed the liquidity of the previous H1 bearish candle, and price is now undergoing a short-term correction. Notably, the POC from the Volume Profile of the accumulation zone has not yet been fully retested, suggesting a strong possibility of price revisiting that area before resuming the broader trend.
Taking all technical factors into account, today’s bias remains on the SELL side, particularly when price retests key supply zones.
Trading Scenarios
SELL (preferred):
Entry: 3667–3670
Stop Loss: 3675
Take Profit 1: 3655
Take Profit 2: 3640
Take Profit 3: 3626
Take Profit 4: 3610
BUY (short-term countertrend):
Entry: 3613–3615
Stop Loss: 3608
Take Profit 1: 3625
Take Profit 2: 3633
Take Profit 3: 3645
Take Profit 4: 3660
Key Levels to Watch
3670: Major resistance, confluence with POC – SELL bias remains dominant.
363x: Strong support repeatedly tested; a clean break would confirm stronger downside pressure.
3610–3615: Potential demand zone, may trigger a short-term rebound.
Telecom to Defence – Is HFCL Ready for the Next Big Move?Fundamental Overview
Business: HFCL manufactures optical fibre cables, telecom infra solutions, and 5G equipment. It is also expanding into defence manufacturing with 1,000 acres allotted in Andhra Pradesh.
FY25 Results: Revenue slipped to ~₹4,064 Cr (down from ₹4,465 Cr in FY24), while net profit nearly halved to ~₹177 Cr. Q4FY25 posted a net loss (~₹81 Cr) due to weak OFC demand.
Valuation: Currently trades at a P/E > 300x, indicating very high growth expectations are priced in.
Balance Sheet:Debt-to-equity is comfortable at 0.28, liquidity healthy (current ratio ~1.87x).
Guidance: Management expects 25–30% revenue growth in FY26, driven by strong order book and 5G product demand.
Strengths: Exposure to 5G & defence, strong order book, low leverage.
Risks: High valuation, weak recent earnings, promoter pledge (~54%), long receivable cycles.
Technical Setup
Pattern: Weekly chart shows a falling wedge, typically a bullish reversal pattern.
Reversal Zone: Price bounced from the ₹72–75 support band.
Key Level: A weekly close above ₹78 signals breakout strength.
Targets:
R1: ₹87
R2: ₹100
R3: ₹116
R4: ₹130
Stop-Loss Zone: Below ₹72 (reversal zone invalidation).
Trading Idea
Swing Trade Setup:
Entry: Close above ₹78 with volume confirmation.
Targets: ₹87 / ₹100 / ₹116 / ₹130.
Stop-Loss: Below ₹72.
Investor View: Fundamentals are a mix of long-term growth drivers (5G, defence) and short-term earnings pressure. Best suited for accumulation near support zones, rather than chasing overvalued levels.
Conclusion
HFCL is at an inflection point. The fundamentals show sector tailwinds (5G + defence), but valuations and profitability remain a concern. Technically, a breakout above ₹78 from the falling wedge could align with management’s bullish FY26 guidance, opening the path toward ₹100+ in coming months.
Disclaimer: lnkd.in
Oil drops as US inventory stockpiles build in the USWest Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude oil benchmark, is trading around $63.02 during Friday's afternoon Asian session, extending its decline for a third straight session. The pressure comes amid mounting concerns over the U.S. economic outlook, excess oil supplies, and ongoing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts.
US crude inventories posted a sharp decline last week as net imports fell to a record low and exports climbed to their highest level in nearly two years. Data released by the US EIA on Wednesday showed that crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending September 12 fell by 9.285 million barrels, compared to a rise of 3.939 million barrels in the previous week.
Nonetheless, a larger-than-expected rise in distillate stockpiles, which increased by 4 million barrels versus predictions of a 1 million barrel increase, raised worries about demand in the world's top oil consumer and undermined the WTI price for three days in a row.
From e technical perspective, the broader structure remains defined by a horizontal range, with WTI contained between $65.00 on the upside and $61.50 on the downside since early August. A sustained break above the upper boundary could unlock room toward $67.00-68.00, whereas a drop below $61.50 would expose the $60.00 psychological level and potentially shift momentum back in favor of sellers.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
Can the Russell 2000 break its all-time high?The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) pivoted this week and confirmed a more accommodative monetary trajectory for the last quarter of 2025. The federal funds rate is expected to be cut two more times, for a total of three cuts across the September, October, and December meetings.
Small businesses are highly sensitive to financing conditions, and lower funding costs are a driver of investment and growth for this category of companies. Under these conditions, can the Russell 2000 — the U.S. small-cap equity index — reach a new all-time high by the end of 2025?
1. The Russell 2000 represents the dynamics of small business activity in the U.S. stock market
The Russell 2000 holds a special place in the American equity universe as it brings together around 2,000 small-cap companies. Unlike the S&P 500, which includes the 500 largest publicly traded U.S. firms, the Russell 2000 reflects more the dynamics of domestic companies, less exposed internationally and often more sensitive to domestic economic conditions, particularly interest rates and U.S. consumption. Given their smaller size, these firms generally have fewer financial resources, making them more vulnerable to economic cycles, but also more agile and able to post rapid growth when the environment is favorable, especially in periods of falling interest rates.
2. There will be a total of three federal funds rate cuts by the end of 2025
Jerome Powell’s Fed has thus confirmed a true monetary pivot to take into account the slowdown in the labor market, while remaining cautious about the upcoming normalization of inflation. The more accommodative monetary trajectory announced should be supportive for risk assets in the stock market, but upcoming U.S. employment and inflation updates will still have a strong impact.
Federal funds rate cycle through the end of 2025: there should therefore be a total of 3 rate cuts by year-end according to the CME Fed Watch Tool shown below.
3. From a technical analysis perspective, the Russell 2000 is testing its all-time high set in November 2021
The upward trend in the Russell 2000 over the past several months signals that investors are anticipating better conditions for U.S. small businesses, directly linked to the decline in the federal funds rate. In the short term, the Russell 2000 may pause as it tests its all-time high, but this resistance could be broken this fall thanks to the Fed’s monetary easing.
The chart below shows weekly candlesticks of the Russell 2000 equity index:
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Dollar Weekly WrapThe dollar ripped to fresh lows early in the week on the FOMC spark and is now set to close with a heavy bearish rejection candle.
Next week’s macro stack:
Tue – U.S. PMI flash
Thu – Q2 GDP final and Durable Goods
Fri – Personal Income/Spending and PCE
Price sits just below a five-week liquidity shelf around the 98.00 area.
Technically the market is oversold near the lower range, so high probability to target next week 98ich highs and lower on cross pairs. lets see how it will play out!
Gold price analysis September 19Gold has recovered in the Tokyo session and is moving towards yesterday's US session resistance around 3672. The buying pressure is not strong enough to break the resistance in the European session, so be cautious with the possibility of a deep decline in today's weekend session, towards lower support zones around 3600.
The 3645 area - corresponding to the 50% level of the H4 candle - is playing an important support role. This is also the area where buying pressure is starting to accumulate and needs to be closely observed today.
📉 Trading plan:
SELL when the price is rejected around 3671
🎯 Target: 3600
📌 Note: Watch the price reaction at the 3645 area, if there is a confirmation signal from the buyers, this could be a reversal point to look for a BUY opportunity.
ES (SPX) Analyses - Key Levels - Setups - Fri, Sep 19Bias:
After the recent FOMC meeting, where they cut rates by 25 basis points on September 18, the E-mini S&P 500 futures are looking a bit bullish. There’s decent support holding up, but expect some bumpy trading around those all-time highs. We might see the market bouncing between the usual value areas, with traders likely to fade the extremes unless there’s a strong breakout.
Momentum could slow down as we get close to overbought levels, which might lead to some profit-taking on any rallies. On the flip side, expect strong buying when prices dip. For now, the trading range looks to be between 6660 and 6710, with swings of about 20 to 30 points likely in quieter trading conditions.
Friday has no major U.S. data on the weekly calendar wrap; Thursday’s LEI fell −0.5% m/m in Aug (already out), so macro tape-bombs are limited.
Quadruple-witching: 09/19/2025 is the quarterly expiration (third Friday of Sep). Also note ESU25 last trade = Sep 19, even though most trading has rolled to ESZ25. Expect flowy opens/closes and possible “pin” behavior. 
Options positioning (ES):
• Report totals: 5.83M total OI; put/call = 3.51. 
• Friday weeklies: 2.676M OI; P/C = 5.09 (put-heavy into expiry). 
• Sep contract (ESU5, 2 DTE): ~1.07M total OI; P/C = 3.01; ~185k volume in the latest report. 
• Vol: 30-day ATM IV ≈ 12.33% (down slightly d/d). 
• 0DTE share in SPX options has been >60% of volume recently — expect same-day gamma flows to matter on a quad-witch Friday. 
Bottom line: This is a put-heavy, expiry-dense tape with subdued vol. Expect pinning/reversion around big strikes and flowy opens/closes rather than a trend day—unless price cleanly accepts outside the range.
Next known catalysts (not tomorrow but near-term): Flash PMIs Mon 9/22; U. Michigan final sentiment Fri 9/26.
Setup 1 — Tier-2 (A+ Bounce) LONG @ 6680–6695
Trigger: sweep 6680–6690 → 15m close back above 6693.5 (AS.L) → 5m re-close + HL → 1m pullback hold.
Entry: 6694–6697.
SL: below the 15m sweep low −0.5 pt (hard).
TP1: 6705–6707 (AS.H). TP2: 6718–6725 (W3).
Management: at TP1 close 70%, move runner to BE; aim TP2; time-stop 45–60m if neither TP1/SL hits; max 2 attempts/level.
Setup 2 — Tier-1 (A++ Rejection-Fade) SHORT @ 6718–6725
Trigger: quick sweep above 6718–25 → 15m body back inside 6710 → 5m LH + re-close → 1m failure retest.
Entry: 6714–6718 on the re-close.
SL: above sweep high +0.5 pt.
TP1: 6705–6707; TP2: 6693–6695; stretch 6685–6680 only if momentum continues.
Management: same as above.
SPY options overlay (execution notes)
Given quarterly expiration and heavy 0DTE participation, prefer same-day SPY (AM window) with Δ≈0.60–0.70 on entries; consider 1-DTE for PM window to temper decay. (0DTE share data from Cboe.)
XAUUSD⚠️ This is not investment advice.
Currently, XAU on the lower timeframes (1H & 30M) has shown a change in direction. I expect new higher levels, though there remains a slight doubt whether it will be able to surpass the all-time high.
If it fails to do so, the market could be entering a consolidation phase, potentially starting a distribution process aimed at recovering the imbalance on the daily chart (1D).
Stay tuned.
XAU/USD: Dip-Buyers Step In, Targeting a Fresh Push Higher📊 Technical Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,652 after slipping below the $3,660 handle. The chart shows that price is holding near the support zone at $3,640–$3,635, while sellers capped upside momentum at the resistance zone $3,678–$3,684. Current structure suggests range-bound consolidation, with potential for a bullish rebound if buyers defend the support area.
🎯 Trade Setup
Entry: $3,635 – $3,640 (near support)
Stop Loss: $3,631 (below support zone)
Take Profit: $3,678 / $3,684 (resistance zone)
Risk/Reward: ~1 : 4.87
🗝️ Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $3,678 – $3,684
Support Zone: $3,635 – $3,640
Major Resistance Above: $3,700 round figure
🌐 Macro Background
Gold remains pressured after the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut, which was less dovish than markets hoped. Powell’s cautious rhetoric supported a USD rebound, weighing on bullion. Still, the Fed’s projection of two more cuts in 2025 underpins medium-term bullish momentum for gold as real yields could decline further. At the same time, geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide safe-haven support, limiting deeper downside.
📌 Trade Summary
The bias favours a long entry near $3,640, aiming for the $3,678–$3,684 resistance zone. Price action remains constructive as long as $3,635 support holds. A decisive break below could open downside risks toward $3,620.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Potential neutral zone tradeThe daily structure in the S&P 500 implied the potential of a neutral zone trade. This indicates that both buyers and sellers are present and a sideways movement in this market. To determine if this neutral zone environment will hold Friday's close will be very important.
Tesla on Track – Golden Zone Respect Leading to $867 TargetAs we discussed in the earlier setup, Tesla retraced beautifully into the golden zone (62–79% retracement area) after sweeping sell-side liquidity. This zone aligned with a higher-timeframe order block, providing strong confluence for a bullish reaction.
The price has since respected that golden zone, confirming buyers stepped in aggressively and validating the bullish bias. From here, the market structure points toward continuation to the upside, with immediate targets at prior buy-side liquidity pools, eventually extending toward the $867 region, a level that aligns with the 100% Fibonacci projection and liquidity resting above previous highs.
This setup illustrates a textbook ICT/SMC play:
Liquidity Sweep ✅
Golden Zone Respect ✅
Strong Bullish Reaction ✅
Clear Buy-side Targets Ahead ✅
If momentum holds, Tesla remains positioned for a multi-month expansion leg toward the $867 target zone.
⚠️ DYOR: Not financial advice. Always confirm setups with your own framework and risk management.
ASIAN GRANITOAsian Granito India Ltd. (currently trading at ₹58.80) is one of India’s leading tile and surface solution providers, offering a wide range of ceramic, vitrified, marble, quartz, and bathware products. Headquartered in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, the company operates 14 manufacturing plants and over 277 showrooms, with a presence across 18,000+ retail touchpoints. Founded in 2000, AGL has pioneered innovations like 450×450 outdoor tiles, water jet technology, and large-format slabs. It owns India’s largest single-roof wall tile plant in Morbi and exports to over 100 countries. The brand is known for its design diversity, affordability, and aggressive retail expansion.
Asian Granito – FY22–FY25 Snapshot
• Sales – ₹1,250 Cr → ₹1,380 Cr → ₹1,520 Cr → ₹1,650 Cr Growth driven by slab exports, bathware, and retail expansion • Net Profit – ₹18 Cr → ₹22 Cr → ₹28 Cr → ₹35 Cr Earnings supported by cost control and product mix • Operating Performance – Moderate → Moderate → Strong → Strong EBITDA margins improving with scale and automation • Dividend Yield (%) – 0.00% → 0.00% → 0.00% → 0.00% No payouts; reinvestment-focused strategy • Equity Capital – ₹58.00 Cr (constant) No dilution; lean capital structure • Total Debt – ₹320 Cr → ₹300 Cr → ₹280 Cr → ₹260 Cr Gradual deleveraging supported by internal accruals • Fixed Assets – ₹620 Cr → ₹650 Cr → ₹680 Cr → ₹710 Cr Capex focused on quartz, slab lines, and bathware expansion
Institutional Interest & Ownership Trends
Promoter holding stands at 33.5%, with no pledging. FIIs and DIIs maintain limited exposure due to small-cap nature and margin volatility. Delivery volumes reflect accumulation by ceramic, infra, and retail-focused micro-cap funds.
Business Growth Verdict
Asian Granito is scaling across slabs, bathware, and export markets Margins improving due to automation and premium product mix Debt is declining steadily with strong operating cash flows Capex supports long-term competitiveness and retail footprint
Management Con Call
• Q1 FY26 revenue rose 18.5% YoY to ₹492.6 Cr; PAT at ₹7.49 Cr • EBITDA margin improved to 6.41%, highest in last 8 quarters • NCLT-convened meetings held for demerger with Adicon Ceramica & Adicon Ceramics • FY26 outlook includes 12–15% revenue growth, margin retention, and slab export scale-up
Final Investment Verdict
Asian Granito India Ltd. offers a niche building-materials story built on design innovation, export strength, and retail scale. Its improving profitability, disciplined capital structure, and expanding product depth make it suitable for accumulation by investors seeking exposure to India’s housing, infra, and lifestyle consumption themes. With strong execution, brand visibility, and slab-led margin expansion, AGL remains a durable value creator in the ceramic and surface solutions space.
Micron(MU) Ceiling: A Technical Thesis for a Short PositionThis trade is a strategic short on Micron Technology (MU), grounded in a technical analysis thesis of price rejection at a significant trendline resistance. The core premise is that the strong upward momentum has exhausted itself as the price has encountered a formidable ceiling, signaling an imminent corrective move. The trade is designed to capitalize on the anticipated retracement to a key underlying support level.
The price of MU has been on a strong ascent, but this rally has recently culminated in a critical inflection point. As shown by the red arrow on the chart, the price has failed to convincingly break above a major resistance trendline, which has been respected over a long-term horizon. This rejection is a high-probability bearish signal, indicating a shift in market control from buyers to sellers.
Trade Idea:
Entry Signal: The short position is initiated at the point of rejection, precisely where the red arrow is located.
Exit Strategy: The primary profit target is set at the strong support level, marked by the green support line.
MU hitting $200?Micron technology could be hitting $200 due to an uptrend and a upcomign earnings date. Higher highs, higher lows, which indicates a strong bullish uptrend, and the breakout from 130 followed by a massive volume is also indicating a bullish uptrend. The price is ridign the upper bollinger band, indicating strong momentum.
To BE or Not to BE... Short!Rationale & Thesis
This is a technical short trade on Bloom Energy (BE), based on a clear rejection of a key resistance level. The thesis is that the upward momentum has exhausted itself, and the price is now positioned to move toward a significant support zone. This trade aims to capture the downward movement from this confirmed high, following the path of a new downward trend.
he recent price action of BE shows that the stock's rally has met a critical barrier. The price has surged to a major resistance trendline and has been firmly rejected. This rejection is clearly marked by the red arrow on the chart, indicating a high-probability reversal as sellers regain control.
Trade Idea:
Entry Signal: The short position is initiated at the price level of the red arrow, following the validation of resistance.
Exit Strategy: The primary profit target is set at the green support line, located at approximately $56.37.