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Fundamental Analysis

The Arena of XAUUSD-GOLD: New Round BeginsMy friends, Good Morning, I have prepared a gold analysis for you in a swing trading structure. The timeframe of this analysis is 4 hours. In my XAUUSD-GOLD analysis, I will open sell positions between 4124.0 and 4176.0. My targets are: TP1 - 3995.0 and TP2 - 3969.0.📊 This analysis is purely for your information. To my friends who support each of my analyses with their likes, I share these analyses thanks to your likes, because every single like from you is my greatest source of motivation to keep posting. I sincerely thank all my friends who leave a like. 🙏 With respect and love.❤️
TVC:GOLD
by TraderTilki
32
Gold Analysis - Channel Decline Toward Key Support LevelsGold is currently trading inside a descending channel, showing sustained short-term bearish momentum. Price continues to respect both the upper and lower channel boundaries, forming lower highs and lower lows. We have three key support zones highlighted below current price: • Support Level 1: Minor liquidity zone where a short-term reaction is possible • Support Level 2: Stronger demand area, likely to generate a corrective bounce • Support Level 3: Major support and potential reversal zone at the channel bottom The projected path shows price potentially continuing lower within the channel toward the deeper support levels before forming a bullish reversal. If price reacts at the lower boundary of the channel + major support, a breakout to the upside could target the 4,100+ area, aligning with the marked TARGET zone. Key Points: • Trend on 15m remains bearish until a channel breakout • EMA 9 and EMA 50 show downward pressure • Watching for bullish structure shift near lower support zone • Break and retest above the channel could confirm trend reversal Bias: Bearish short-term → Bullish reversal potential at deeper support.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Hamza_Gold
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | A bearish structure has formed, waiting for confirmation signals in the European session Overall, gold is in a corrective phase after the previous upward move. On H1, a clear Dow bearish structure (lower highs, lower lows) has formed, but the support area around 4,030 and the Fibonacci cluster below are still potential zones for a reversal buying force. Today's European session will be crucial to confirm: whether to continue a deep decline or bounce back according to the head and shoulders pattern forming on H4. Macro – Fundamental Brief The October Fed meeting minutes show a strong internal division: One group opposes rate cuts, wanting to maintain the current level. The other group supports cuts, even proposing further reductions in the December meeting. This lack of consensus reflects a high degree of monetary policy uncertainty, keeping defensive capital flows interested in gold. In the long term, gold only surges when confidence in the financial system weakens – the peak gold price is not a sign of prosperity, but a warning signal. Technical Analysis – H1 (trendline, Fibonacci, liquidity) The price is fluctuating below the short-term descending trendline, confirming the bearish phase is still in effect. The 4,082–4,090 zone is an “important liquidity zone” – where the price has reacted multiple times, currently acting as near resistance. The 4,029–4,031 cluster is crucial support: Coincides with technical support area + Fibonacci retracement level. Start of a large FVG running down to the 3,985 zone (Fibo 1.618 + psychological support). Above, the 4,129–4,130 zone is strong resistance (strong resistance on the chart); if the price surpasses and holds above this area, the Dow bearish structure will weaken significantly. Trading Scenario Reference BUY Scenario – buy at support / Fibonacci zone Logic: Price holds above support – Fibonacci, bottom-fishing capital appears. Entry BUY: 4,029–4,031 SL: 4,022 TP: 4,040 → 4,065 → 4,090 → 4,120 Only prioritize when the price reacts well at 4,029–4,031 (wick or clear reversal candle appears on M15–H1). If H1 closes below 4,022, this BUY scenario should be canceled. SELL Scenario – follow the current bearish structure (prioritize when trendline is not broken) Logic: Price retraces to retest resistance + descending trendline and is rejected. Entry SELL: 4,098–4,100 SL: 4,105 TP: 4,088 → 4,070 → 4,035 → 4,000–3,985 Only enter when the price hits the 4,098–4,100 zone and a clear rejection signal appears (pin bar/bearish engulfing). If H1 closes above 4,105 and breaks the trendline, stop all sell orders and reassess the structure. Notable Price Zones for Scalping 4,082 – 4,060 – 3,985 – 4,129 These zones can be used for short-term scalping based on price reactions, but reduce volume and close quickly. Important Note If the price is confirmed to close stably above the descending trendline and holds above the 4,090–4,100 zone, the priority will gradually shift to BUY setups, as a head and shoulders pattern (bullish reversal) is forming on H4. Conversely, if the 4,029–4,022 support is decisively broken, gold is likely to continue falling towards the FVG and Fibonacci 1.618 zone around 3,985. Which scenario are you leaning towards for gold today – retrace up to sell further or hold the bottom to bounce back? Leave a comment below the post and follow the LiamTrading channel for daily XAUUSD updates on TradingView.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th Good morning everyone, Brian here with the gold outlook for November 20th. The ABC correction phase of gold is nearly complete, and the market is preparing to enter a new wave phase amidst a flurry of USD data today. Fundamental Analysis Today's focus remains on the US labor data: NFP (or revisions), Unemployment Rate, and Initial Jobless Claims. If the data shows a cooling labor market, expectations for the Fed to soon pivot to a rate-cutting cycle will rise, weakening real yields, putting pressure on the USD, and supporting gold prices. Conversely, "too good" data will strengthen the dollar, allowing for a short-term repricing move, potentially dragging gold down to lower liquidity zones before recovering. US session liquidity may be thin before the news release, making it prone to spikes due to algorithms and large flows simultaneously adjusting positions. Overall, the macro backdrop still favors "buying the dip" for gold, but you must accept strong volatility around news time. Technical Analysis On the chart, gold has completed an ABC corrective wave within a descending channel, part of a larger uptrend. The current descending channel only serves as a corrective leg after the previous upward wave; prices are trading above the "mean" area of the bullish structure, indicating the larger market structure remains bullish. Below is the liquidity zone / demand zone 4013–4015, coinciding with the previous low and the lower channel boundary – if there's another stop-hunt to this area, it is still considered an opportunity to join the upward move, as long as 4008 is not breached. Above, the 4086–4100 cluster is the decision zone: breaking and holding above here will confirm exiting the corrective channel, triggering an impulsive leg towards resistances 4132–4146 and further to 4187. In summary, the main bias remains bullish, prioritizing buy strategies at support zones or after breakout confirmation. Key Price Levels Resistance: 4086 – 4100 – 4110 – 4132 – 4146 Support: 4040 – 4030 – 4015 Trading Scenarios Buy Scenario 1 – Continuation Breakout Entry: 4086 SL: 4078 TP: 4100 – 4120 – 4140 Prioritize when price breaks up and retests 4086–4100 as a new support zone, confirming exit from the descending channel. Buy Scenario 2 – Deep Liquidity Sweep Entry: 4015–4013 SL: 4008 TP: 4030 – 4045 – 4070 Watch for strong price reactions at the demand zone, with pin bars or engulfing candles signaling order flow returning to buyers. Sell Scenario – Sell Reaction at Strong Resistance Entry: 4144–4146 SL: 4151 TP: 4132 – 4120 – 4100 Short-term sell strategy, leveraging the high supply zone if price rises straight up without sufficient accumulation. The medium-term upside target if the bullish wave develops as expected remains the 4187 area. What do you think of this scenario? Remember to follow Brian for daily gold insights and comment your views below to join the discussion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Exact Sciences Surge: Abbott Talks Signal Diagnostic ShiftNews of a potential acquisition by Abbott Laboratories propelled Exact Sciences (EXAS) stock nearly 24% higher on Wednesday. Market activity shifted dramatically following reports of advanced negotiations between the two healthcare giants. Abbott Laboratories, a diversified medical titan, reportedly seeks to acquire the cancer diagnostics leader. This potential union highlights a broader trend of strategic consolidation within the healthcare sector. Investors reacted swiftly, driving EXAS shares toward a 52-week high. The Catalyst: Strategic Acquisition Talks Recent reports indicate Abbott Laboratories and Exact Sciences are finalizing terms. While no deal is guaranteed, the market priced in a significant premium immediately. Exact Sciences’ valuation jumped, reflecting the strategic value of its assets. Abbott’s stock dipped slightly, a common acquirer reaction during buyout rumors. Industry Trends: Diagnostics Consolidation The diagnostics sector is undergoing a massive recalibration. Major players like Abbott are moving away from pandemic-era testing windfalls toward sustainable oncology solutions. Acquiring Exact Sciences offers immediate dominance in colorectal cancer screening. This aligns with industry shifts toward early detection and preventative care. Consolidation allows companies to scale R&D and distribution simultaneously. Geostrategy & Geopolitics: Healthcare Autonomy National health security is increasingly vital in a fragmented geopolitical landscape. Countries now prioritize domestic diagnostic capabilities to ensure supply chain resilience. A US-centric merger between Abbott and Exact Sciences strengthens the American healthcare infrastructure. It reduces reliance on foreign diagnostic supply chains. This moves critical cancer screening technology firmly under the umbrella of a robust US multinational. Business Models: Recurring Revenue Power Exact Sciences operates on a highly attractive recurring revenue model. Its flagship product, Cologuard, serves a vast, aging demographic requiring regular screening. Unlike one-off device sales, screening protocols generate consistent cash flow. Abbott likely values this predictability. The model creates a "sticky" ecosystem where patients and providers remain engaged over decades. Company Culture & Innovation Exact Sciences maintains a culture deeply rooted in relentless innovation. The company recently validated its Cologuard Plus test, demonstrating superior sensitivity. This commitment to product evolution keeps them ahead of competitors. Their R&D teams focus on multi-cancer early detection (MCED), a "holy grail" in diagnostics. Abbott would inherit this forward-thinking workforce. Patent Analysis: The IP Moat Intellectual property rights form the bedrock of Exact Sciences' valuation. The company successfully defends its technology, recently winning patent litigation against Geneoscopy. This legal victory solidifies their market monopoly on stool-DNA testing methods. An acquirer like Abbott gains a protected fortress, not just a product line. Macroeconomics & Economics The deal signals a return of "strategic buyers" despite high interest rates. While private equity has slowed, corporate balance sheets remain healthy. Abbott holds significant capital reserves ready for deployment. This transaction suggests that corporate leaders see current valuations as attractive entry points. It indicates broader confidence in the long-term economic resilience of the healthcare sector. Technology & Cyber: Data Integrity Modern diagnostics require robust digital infrastructure. Exact Sciences manages sensitive genetic data, necessitating advanced cybersecurity protocols. Their proactive Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure program exemplifies a mature tech stance. Abbott would acquire a secure, HIPAA-compliant data architecture essential for modern digital health integration. Management & Leadership CEO Kevin Conroy has effectively guided Exact Sciences from a penny stock to a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. His leadership emphasized clinical evidence and commercial execution. The management team built strong relationships with insurers and health systems. Abbott is likely buying this human capital and commercial prowess as much as the technology itself. Science & High-Tech: The DNA Edge At its core, Exact Sciences is a high-tech molecular biology firm. Their technology amplifies specific DNA biomarkers from non-invasive samples. This requires sophisticated chemistry and automated laboratory processes. The science behind Cologuard represents a high barrier to entry for competitors. Abbott secures immediate access to this cutting-edge genomic platform. Investor Caution Traders must exercise discipline. Deal talks can collapse over valuation or regulatory concerns. The 24% surge in prices is a high probability of success, leaving little room for error. If talks fail, the stock could retrace sharply. Investors should weigh the arbitrage opportunity against the risk of deal failure.
NASDAQ:EXASLong
by TradeThePool
GBPJPY - BULLISH BIASSymbol - GBPJPY GBPJPY has broken the structure of its recent local downtrend amid continued weakness in the Japanese yen. This shift opens the door for a potential continuation of the broader bullish trend. The yen continues to lose value, while the British pound remains on an upward path. A breakout above local trend resistance is taking shape, strengthening the overall bullish market structure. The key support zone is 203.50 – 203.26 Holding steady above this zone would confirm sustained buyer momentum and could set the stage for further upside. If bulls manage to defend 203.50, the likelihood of an extended rally increases. Resistance levels: 204.06, 205.32 Support levels: 203.52, 203.26 A strong battle between buyers and sellers is developing around the 203.50 level. Continued consolidation above 203.00 underscores the importance of this zone. The current bias favors the bulls - maintaining price action above 203.50 would support additional gains, while a break below this area could trigger a pullback toward support.
Long
by akshit_official
GBPUSD — Market Structure Outlook (Institutional Narrative)GBPUSD — Market Structure Outlook (Institutional Narrative) Current PA continues to operate inside a mid-range accumulation zone, with liquidity being harvested on both sides while maintaining the broader bullish narrative. Price has repeatedly defended the 1.3010–1.3080 demand band, aligning with: • Displacement → Accumulation → Expansion framework • Clean FVG structure supporting directional continuation • A protected structural low that hasn’t been challenged My base case: I expect one more liquidity sweep into the 1.3090 region to rebalance inefficiencies before the next expansion leg toward 1.3250–1.3350, where higher-timeframe liquidity rests. Confirmation will come from: Reclaiming the internal range high Bullish displacement through the micro-FVG cluster Holding above the model’s discounted zone This remains a macro-continuation opportunity rather than a scalping environment. I’ll update the model if structural invalidation appears.
Long
by Rithy
XAUUSD – HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN CLEARLY FORMED, CONTINUE ...💛 XAUUSD – HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN CLEARLY FORMED, CONTINUE TO PRIORITIZE BUYING 🎯 🌤 1. Overview – Today's Picture Hello everyone, it's Lana again 💬 In the Asian session this morning, gold has completed the right shoulder of the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern very clearly on the H3/H4 frame. Those who bought according to the previous scenario are currently in a favorable position, and in my opinion, this is still the time to hold the Buy order and prepare for additional opportunities if the market confirms the trend. On the macro side, according to the FedWatch CME tool, the probability of the Fed cutting 25bp in December is only about 30–33%, while the likelihood of maintaining the interest rate still prevails. This prevents the USD from falling deeply, but at the same time, it is not strong enough to "suppress" gold – creating a strong fluctuation environment within the range, very suitable for trading according to technical patterns. 💹 2. Technical Analysis – Head and Shoulders Pattern & Price Structure The inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has formed quite accurately: Left shoulder → Head → Right shoulder all rest on the long-term upward trendline. The bottom area around 4040–4050 is a liquidity box supporting the entire structure. The neckline currently lies around the 4089–4090 area: When the price breaks up and closes above 4089, we consider it a confirmation of a new upward trend. After the breakout, gold can expand to the areas 4145 → 4200, where strong liquidity + FVG is concentrated above. Area 4130–4132: Is a large liquidity cluster – where short-term profit-taking & Sell orders are likely to appear. Once this area is decisively broken, the likelihood of the price quickly bouncing to 4200 is quite high. Area 4040: Is both the bottom of the pattern and a key support. The scenario will fail if gold closes the H4 candle below 4040, as the Head and Shoulders structure would be broken. Overall, the price is compressing right below the neckline, and just a nice break can trigger the next upward wave. 🎯 3. Reference Trading Plan 💖 Main BUY Scenario – according to the pattern 1️⃣ Buy retracement to support Entry: 4060–4063 SL: 4055 TP: 4088 → 4108 → 4130 → 4143 → 4200 2️⃣ Buy breakout neckline Condition: Price breaks the downward trendline & neckline, closes above 4089. Entry: around 4089–4092 SL: 4080 Reference TP: 4132 → 4145 → 4200 💢 Note on SELL Currently, SELL is only against the pattern trend, not a priority scenario. Only consider short Sell when: Price reacts very strongly at 4132–4145, And there is a clear reversal signal on M15–M30 (pin bar, bearish engulfing, increased selling volume). ⚠️ 4. Key Fundamental Factors to Watch The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate is still high → the market is likely to "freeze" before the news, then explode with volatility. During this period, gold is often sensitive to data: employment, inflation, Fed officials' speeches. 🌷 In summary, the inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on XAUUSD is supporting the upward scenario, as long as the price remains above 4040 💛 My strategy: Prioritize Buy, first in the 4060–4063 area, then break 4089, Closely monitor the 4132–4145 area – if broken, the opportunity to reach 4200 is very clear. If you find the analysis useful, please 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to update the gold perspective with me every day ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Don't miss this excellent opportunity to buy gold at low prices.In the current gold market, the price action is becoming clearer, with key support and resistance levels emerging. The 4050-4030 support zone deserves particular attention, as it offers strong support. If the price retraces to this level and successfully stabilizes, it would be an excellent entry point for long positions, potentially allowing bulls to launch an upward attack. Resistance is seen around 4110-4120. When the price first touches this area, it may face pullback pressure due to technical factors. However, if the price can consolidate and effectively hold above 4120, the possibility of further upward movement towards the 4150 target this week will significantly increase. Based on the current overall performance of gold, the market can be considered to be trading within the 4030-4120 range. The trading strategy should focus on buying on dips, taking advantage of rebounds from support levels to generate profits. At the same time, strict position control is crucial, as market conditions are constantly changing. Furthermore, it is essential to closely monitor real-time data and market dynamics to flexibly adjust trading strategies. Gold trading recommendation: Buy gold in batches around the 4050-4030 range, with a target of 4080-4100.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Daniel_PrimeFX
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 20, 2025 EURUSDThe euro/U.S. dollar trades just above 1.15000, remaining under pressure after the publication of the Federal Reserve minutes: the probability of a rate cut in December has decreased, supporting the dollar and widening the yield differential. Caution persists amid slowing global demand and weak risk appetite, which further fuels demand for dollar assets. On the European side, price indicators are stabilizing below this year’s peaks while growth remains subdued. This keeps the ECB from accelerating the pace of easing and does not provide support for the euro: weak domestic dynamics reduce capital inflows into the euro area and leave the pair sensitive to changes in the interest-rate differential in favor of the U.S. In the coming days, the focus is on U.S. data and regulators’ comments on inflation and the labor market. If expectations of a longer period of high rates in the U.S. persist, the dollar will receive additional support and EURUSD faces the risk of renewing recent lows. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.15250, SL 1.15450, TP 1.14550
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
#Bitcoin Mini Update $BTC Hit 88.4K support I mentioned earlier#Bitcoin Mini Update CRYPTOCAP:BTC Hit 88.4K support I mentioned earlier. A move toward 95–96K is still possible, and if price holds that zone with strength, 100K could follow. But that would still be a relief bounce, not a trend reversal. I’m still short and holding my position. Structure stays bearish until the market proves otherwise. 📌 Key Level 88K is the line to watch right now. If BTC closes below 88K, momentum can continue to the downside with the next targets at 85-82K or even 77K. Until then, I’m managing position size and staying patient. Price will decide the move, not opinions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by CryptoSkullSignal
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure TVC:GOLD Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,075, struggling to gain traction after a sharp intraday recovery. Price remains capped by the resistance zone at $4,081–$4,086, while intraday support is seen between $4,041–$4,045. The structure currently favours a short-term bearish reaction, with price showing repeated rejection at the resistance zone. A break below $4,060 could accelerate downside momentum toward the support zone, while any sustained push above $4,093 would invalidate the bearish bias. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Sell from resistance zone targeting retest of support. Entry: $4,081 – $4,086 Stop Loss: $4,094 Take Profit 1: $4,045 Take Profit 2: $4,041 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 3.4 Bias turns bullish only if price closes above $4,093. 🌐 Macro Background Gold trades above $4,100 ahead of the delayed US September NFP report, which was pushed back due to the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history. FXStreet notes that: “Gold edges higher to near $4,110 as uncertainty over US jobs data and cautious sentiment support safe-haven demand.” 【FXStreet】 NFP Impact: A weaker-than-expected jobs report would likely revive expectations for a December rate cut, boosting gold through lower yields and a softer USD. Fed Divisions: The FOMC Minutes showed policymakers divided—some supporting further cuts, others opposing another move in December. Market Pricing: The CME FedWatch Tool shows only a 30% probability of a December rate cut, sharply lower than nearly 60% last week, limiting gold’s upside. Overall, gold’s upside remains constrained by shifting rate expectations, but uncertainty around delayed data continues to provide safe-haven support. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $4,081 – $4,086 Support: $4,041 – $4,045 Psychological Level: $4,100 📌 Trade Summary Gold remains trapped between resistance at $4,081–$4,086 and support at $4,041–$4,045. Price is showing rejection at resistance, favouring a short-term bearish pullback. Downside targets lie at $4,045 and $4,041, unless incoming NFP data triggers renewed bullish momentum. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ATFX_Global
SUI/USDT Could switch sides soon. Be readySUI/USDT on the 1H chart appears to have completed a downward correction. The price action has followed a large descending channel and what looks like a corrective structure, ending with a final five-wave move. Key Levels Potential Entry: Upon confirmation of the breakout above $1.62. Target 1: $1.9 (50% of the previous down trend) Target 2: $1.973 (61% of the previous down trend) Target 3: $2.070 (Testing previous resistance zone) Invalidation/Stop-Loss: A move and close below the wave (5) low around $1.50 What do you do? Look for a bullish break with high volume from the immediate small consolidation pattern, then take your longs. Good Luck!
by VIPCryptoVault
SPOT - A Ticking Time Bomb!SPOT Earnings Yield of 1.3% according to current data — meaning you’re getting about 1.3 cents of profit per dollar invested. LOL! Better you give me your hard-earned money and I'll give you 2% instead of 1.3%. I like to splurge! :) The Structural Constraint Spotify cannot scale margins the way Netflix did because: They don’t own the content They don’t control input costs They have to pay out ~70% of every dollar to rights holders Their pricing power is weak and regulated by deals with labels The labels decide what happens to Spotify’s margins, not Spotify This is the definition of a business with a hard economic ceiling. No amount of subscribers fixes the cost structure. Spotify’s long-run net margin: 1–2% (When they “beat,” the gains evaporate the next quarter.) If Spotify hit 5% margins — a level they’ve never sustained. And on a positive note — THANK YOU for helping me hit 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥 Let’s keep going. If you find value in the work: 👉 Boost 👉 Follow 👉 Leave a comment Let’s push to 6,000 and keep building a community rooted in facts, not fairy tales.
NYSE:SPOTShort
by RealMacro
1
Dollar Index: Bullish Structure + Fed Expectations AligningDXY remains inside a well-defined ascending channel and is currently building structure above mid-channel support. With the Dec 10 Fed meeting approaching, the macro narrative may soon favor additional USD strength. According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing: 55.6% probability the Fed holds rates 44.4% probability of a cut A hold keeps U.S. yields supported and has historically provided short-term upside pressure on the Dollar Index. Technical Outlook Price is respecting the ascending channel Current pullback sits on a key demand zone + channel support Higher-timeframe supply is above, but continuation structure is intact The October rate cut reaction formed a clean bullish trend leg — this could be the next impulsive wave My Bias I’m anticipating USD strength into — and potentially after — the December Fed meeting, especially if the Fed reiterates cautious, data-dependent language rather than confirming more cuts. Bullish Thesis: A Fed hold + risk-off repricing → upside continuation on DXY Key Levels to Watch: 🔼 100.80 🔼 101.50 (major supply break target) 🔼 102.20+ if momentum accelerates Invalidation: A clean break below channel support + demand zone.
TVC:DXYLong
by priceactionkid
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setups for Thu (Nov 20th)Market Bias Analysis The current short-term bias is constructively bullish, yet it remains contingent on upcoming events. Recent momentum has been bolstered by Nvidia's exceptional earnings report and a significant intraday reversal in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES). As long as the 6,670–6,680 range holds during any pullbacks, the path of least resistance appears to be upward. It is important to note that the broader daily trend is still bullish, unless we see a decisive breach below the key demand zone of 6,520–6,510 in the ES. Market Overview In a notable shift following a four-day decline, today's trading session exhibited a renewed bullish sentiment. The E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) printed a robust green daily candle, bouncing off a low of approximately 6,622.00 yesterday to close near 6,740. From a technical perspective, the daily chart reveals that the recent selloff has established a lower high without breaking the prior significant higher low. The reaction low remains comfortably above the daily 1.272 extension cluster situated around 6,521.25. On the 4-hour chart, the price action has transitioned from a pattern of lower lows to a new higher low, currently pushing into the Price Quotient Median (PQM) and Price Quotient High (PQH) band, just below previous 4-hour supply levels. Observing the 1-hour chart, today's trading reflected a definitive trend day upward, characterized by a consistent series of higher lows and higher highs, culminating the session near the 1-hour 1.272 Fibonacci extension at 6,743.75. Macroeconomic factors played a crucial role in this market turnaround, particularly after Nvidia reported stunning Q3 earnings that exceeded expectations, generating approximately $57 billion in revenue. The company’s strong AI-driven outlook and positive after-hours performance alleviated concerns that the recent downturn in technology stocks signified the onset of a broader unwinding of the AI bubble. This development contributed to a rally in index futures as the session drew to a close. Nonetheless, the overarching theme remains one of valuation pressures and interest rate concerns. Despite breaking a four-session losing streak, market participants are poised for tomorrow’s data, which will be pivotal in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory moving forward. Scheduled Events (Tomorrow – Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025) Tomorrow’s docket is heavy and directly relevant for ES: • 8:30 a.m. ET – September Employment Situation (delayed jobs report) The September nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate, postponed by the government shutdown, are finally released. This is the only full jobs report the Fed will have before its December meeting, and markets are treating it as a major verdict on the labour market. • Other U.S. data (during the morning/early afternoon) Various calendars flag building permits / housing data, regional manufacturing (e.g., Philadelphia Fed), and existing home sales clustered through the U.S. session – all secondary to the jobs report but able to add fuel if they confirm or contradict the labour story. • Fed speakers / meetings • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has a scheduled fireside chat around midday (12:40 p.m. ET). • The Fed also has a closed Board meeting at 1:15 p.m. ET and a two-day Cleveland Fed financial-stability conference that can generate headlines. Net: the jobs report is the main event; Fed comments will colour the move rather than drive it on their own. Setups (A++ Concepts) These are two high-conviction, rule-style ideas you can plug into your own framework. Price levels are exact from your charts. A++ Setup 1 – Continuation Long from Value Pocket Entry trigger concept: Look for a sweep into the chosen band (e.g., wick into 6,690–6,695 or down into 6,663–6,668) followed by a strong 15m/5m bullish close back above 6,700. That shows buyers defending value and rejecting a deeper rotation into S3. Risk / invalidation: Structural invalidation if ES closes the hour below 6,652.50 (Y-POC) and cannot reclaim 6,668. In practice, a tight stop can sit just under 6,652.00 if entering from 6,690–6,705, or under 6,645.00 if using the deeper S2 pocket. Targets: • TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272) • TP2: 6,777.00 (1H 1.618) • TP3: 6,813.50 (1H 2.0) --- A++ Setup 2 – Short Fade from 1H Extension Cluster Entry zone: Primary sell pocket: 6,777.00–6,813.50 (1H 1.618 to 2.0 extension cluster.) Risk / invalidation: Structural invalidation above 6,825–6,830 (clear 1H/4H acceptance beyond the 2.0 extension). A practical stop can sit around 6,828.00 if entering inside the band. Targets: • TP1: 6,743.75 (1H 1.272 / prior extension) • TP2: 6,683.50–6,690.00 (NYPM high / S1 top) • TP3: 6,659.00–6,664.75 (VWAP/value pocket S2) Narrative: If Nvidia’s beat triggers a euphoric push straight into the upper fib level but the tape immediately rejects that strength, the market is saying “good news already in the price.” This setup expresses the view that the real gravity is lower, back toward value and potentially into S3 if macro data disappoint.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
Advanced Supply and Demand (HORC Trend + SnD StructureAfter studying the charts for some time, I’ve realized that candlesticks are all we need to make money in the market. The question is: can you read the story of market participants — where they showed their hand and revealed their intentions before a break of structure or a change of character, creating imbalances as they seek balance? A concept called HORC is what I follow. It’s an advanced supply-and-demand framework that incorporates knowledge of participant behavior. In this series I will share what I’m looking at and my intentions. Warning Nothing shared here is financial advice; I am not an expert. I am still learning and figuring this out.
Education
by Grandoc
Gold bulls launch a strong counterattack!After a prolonged period of narrow-range fluctuations, gold reached a high of around 4120 before pulling back. Currently, the overall structure remains bullish. Market conditions are constantly changing, and stubbornness is the worst thing in trading. Neither die-hard bulls nor die-hard bears can last in the face of the market. We should follow the trend; this is the fundamental logic of professional trading. Don't fight the market; just follow the trend. Currently, the bulls still hold the initiative in gold. Short-term pullbacks are more about consolidation than a trend reversal. As long as the upward momentum continues, pullbacks are opportunities, not risks. The key focus going forward is the pullback performance in the 4090-4070 area. As long as it holds, this area remains a good place to buy on dips. The market always punishes those who defy it. Hitting a wall is a lesson; understanding the direction is growth. Following the trend is the easiest and most stable way to trade. Continue to follow the rhythm; opportunities are for those who choose the right direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Daniel_PrimeFX