STOP THE WASH TRADING, WE HAD ENOUGH!Filecoin enables verifiable data.
Go short google, amazon, microsoft!
Fundamental Analysis
Decoding Trading Charts and Psychology in NIKOLA TESLA'S way! Hey, how are you all! Let's dive deep into a powerful concept inspired by Nikola Tesla’s famous quote: “If you wish to find the secrets of the universe, think in terms of ENERGY, FREQUENCY, and VIBRATION.” This idea, though from the realm of physics, it beautifully translates into the world of trading—both in developing the individual’s right trading mindset and understanding price charts.
Disclaimer:
This post is dedicated solely to educational content and community-driven insights. All information shared here—including strategies, trade setups, and opinions—are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or trading advice.
Viewers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions.
Trading and investing in financial markets involve risk, and the channel will not be held responsible for any losses or damages incurred as a result of actions taken based on the content presented.
Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Let’s break down each component and see how you can apply it practically to your trading journey.
At first, let’s talk about the Energy: The Driving Force in Mindset of an individual and Money in Markets.
Energy —Tesla described it as the fundamental driving force behind everything. In trading mindset, energy is your mental and emotional vitality. It’s the passion that fuels your motivation to study markets daily, the focus that keeps you glued to charts during sessions, and the resilience that helps you bounce back from losses without losing confidence.
Imagine two traders: One wakes up excited, ready to analyse and follow their strategy, maintaining positivity even after a tough day. The other wakes up tired and doubtful, easily frustrated by every small loss. The difference? Their energy levels. High, consistent energy levels mean a trader can handle stress better, maintain discipline, and stick to a well-thought plan rather than acting impulsively.
On the market side, think of it as the driving force in the universe of trading. In trading, energy directly corresponds to Money. Money represents the real driving power or driving force behind price movement. It is the buying or selling pressure that injects momentum into the market.
When big chunks of money flow into a stock, like institutional buying, it fuels powerful upward moves. Conversely, large sell-offs drain energy, pushing prices down. Understanding where money is concentrated and how much “Energy” in the form of “Money” is behind the moves lets you anticipate strong trends or reversals.
Secondly, It’s time to discuss about Frequency: The Discipline of an individual and the Time factor in Trading.
Frequency, which for Tesla referred to the rate at which something vibrates or repeats. In trading mindset, frequency is the rhythm of your actions—your habits, your routine, and your discipline. Are you consistently reviewing charts at time intervals? Do you stick to your risk management and trading plan day after day? That regularity creates a frequency that stabilise your results.
Consider a trader who trades instantly, jumping into random setups at different hours without a plan. Their frequency is erratic, and their results are often inconsistent. Contrast that with a trader who enters the market with a fixed routine, analysing and executing trades in well-defined sessions. This disciplined frequency builds confidence and clarity, reducing emotional reactions like fear and greed.
For market charts, the context is in which price move happen in market hours, trading sessions, days, weeks, or months. Frequency is about the rhythm or cycle of these movements. The time of entry and exit of a trade needs understanding of the time factor to achieve better results. For example, price Accumulation and Distribution within an area represent the range of price movements in the near future.
It relates to the timing of price moves. This includes how often prices spend in a particular area without sweeping their highs and lows. The more time spent on it can potentially be how directional the price can behave.
At last, it is Vibration we must look into: It is the Emotional State of an individual and Price Action in charts.
Vibration: On a psychological level, vibration reflects your emotional states—the subtle feelings influencing how you react to market moves. Positive vibrations like calmness, confidence, and patience help you stay grounded, while negative ones like fear, frustration, and impatience can cause poor decisions.
For example, a trader who can stay calm during a price pullback might hold their position with confidence, trusting their analysis. Another who feels anxious might exit too early or overtrade to compensate, resulting in losses.
On the chart side, vibration is best understood as the actual Price Action on the charts—the patterns, candlesticks, and trends that represent how the market feels and behaves at any moment.
Just as vibration represents waves or oscillations in physics, price action is the ever-changing market vibration, reflecting trader sentiment, supply and demand shifts, and market psychology.
For example, a strong bullish trend or bearish trend are vibrations signalling increasing pressure. Sideways or choppy price action indicates indecision and low vibration energy. Learning to read these vibrations means interpreting the real-time mood and momentum of the market.
vibration is the actual price action—the patterns, trends, and candlestick formations that “vibrate” with market sentiment. Sharp price spikes, steady trends, or choppy sideways movement all represent different vibrations of the market. Learning to “read” these vibrations lets you align your trades with what the market is truly expressing.
Bringing It All Together>>>>>>>>>>>
So, how do we use these three—energy, frequency, and vibration—in practical trading mastery?
- First, cultivate your energy by maintaining a positive mindset, managing stress, and staying passionate about learning how, where and when the money is being exchanged.
- Next, build your frequency by developing and sticking to disciplined routines and timing your trades in harmony with market rhythms.
- Lastly, heighten your awareness of vibration by controlling your emotions and learning to interpret price action signals accurately.
Mastering these interconnected elements doesn’t just help you with strategy—it transforms your entire trading psychology, turning you into a more consistent and confident trader.
If this perspective adds value and if you have any inputs to this understanding about trading, Share your experiences or questions in the comments below—I love hearing the application of this thought into charts. Until next time, focus on your energy, maintain your frequency, and tune into the vibrations. Trade smart, and stay disciplined!
Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (21 NOV)Daily QQQ (US100-NQ) Outlook - Prediction (21 NOV)
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is bearish right now, in my opinion. The FED is expected not to cut rates in December, and the uncertainty around when rate cuts may resume in 2026 is adding pressure. After yesterday’s intraday crash, overall market anxiety has increased significantly.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price tapped the monthly FVG level around 588.5, which holds significant liquidity. In my view, this zone may set up the foundation for a potential Friday bounce.
📌 Game Plan – Prediction
I expect two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Black Line):
Price may consolidate and range between 597–588, creating choppy intraday price action.
Scenario 2 (Red Line):
Price may retrace toward 578.5, then recover and move back above the 588 level.
💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
FinVolution (FINV)- Massive Selloff, Massive Opportunity?⚡ Market Context
FinVolution ( NYSE:FINV ) just went through one of its strongest selloffs in years.
After the recent earnings release, the stock dropped about 12 percent in one session and roughly 60 percent over the last six months.
What is surprising is that the earnings report itself was not bad. Revenue remains stable, the company is still profitable, and cash flows continue to look healthy. Fundamentally the decline looks excessive relative to the numbers. It is possible that the market is pricing in China specific risks that we cannot clearly see, but the size of the move still appears disconnected from the financial results.
📉 Technical Structure
From a structural point of view, FINV has now returned to one of the largest accumulation clusters on the entire chart.
This support zone stretches from 3.5 to 7, and the price is already trading near the upper boundary of this block.
The recent collapse fits well into a corrective pattern inside the larger wave structure. The current price action is likely completing the final part of the decline. The global bullish structure is still intact.
Key levels:
Major accumulation zone: 3.5 to 7
Current price: around 4.7
Wave invalidation level: 2.68
(Only a break below 2.68 cancels the entire long term structure.)
Until the price breaks below 2.68, the wave count remains valid and the bullish scenario stays active.
🔍 My Position and Strategy
My stop loss was hit during the drop, so I am currently out of the market.
Right now I am waiting for a clear confirmation signal before reentering.
My plan:
Price must break out of the current downward channel.
After the breakout, I need to see a clean retest from above.
That retest becomes the entry trigger, with a tight stop.
If the price moves lower before the breakout, that is acceptable inside the current wave structure.
The most important part is the confirmation and the retest.
📊 Bigger Picture
Even though the decline looks brutal, the long term structure remains bullish.
We are inside the largest multi year accumulation zone, and the broader formation still points to a potential long term upside once the correction completes.
The next big move can start only after the structure confirms the reversal. Until then, patience is the strategy.
✅ Summary
Earnings were acceptable, but the market reaction was extremely negative.
Price is now inside a huge accumulation cluster between 3.5 and 7.
Wave structure remains valid unless 2.68 breaks.
I am currently out and waiting for a breakout and retest signal.
Long term bias remains bullish.
💬 What do you think?
Is this a deep accumulation opportunity, or is the market pricing in hidden risks?
Share your thoughts below and drop your tickers for the next analysis.
TSLA: Fundamentals Are Collapsing While Valuation Stays in OrbitTesla is trading near multi-month highs… but the fundamentals tell a very different story.
EPS has dropped by 50%, revenue growth has almost stalled, and yet the stock still carries a Forward P/E of 164.
This combination — slowing growth and extreme valuation — looks like the definition of an institutional bubble setup.
🧮 Fundamental Context
Over the past few years, Tesla’s growth has slowed dramatically:
Revenue rose from 31B → 53B → 81B → 96B → 97B — barely any increase.
EPS climbed from 0.2 → 1.6 → 3.6 → 4.3 — and then fell by half.
Quarter-over-quarter metrics remain negative, with no visible recovery trend.
Meanwhile, the Forward P/E of 164 implies double-digit expansion ahead — which clearly isn’t happening.
The fundamentals simply do not justify this kind of valuation.
Right now, Tesla’s numbers resemble the early phase of a valuation compression cycle — where prices eventually catch up with reality.
📉 Technical Structure
Technically, Tesla has been moving in a broad sideways range, forming what looks like a long-term Wave 4 structure.
We’re currently inside the “B” leg, which could already be complete or near completion.
Once that wave ends, the next expected move is a Wave C decline.
Key levels to watch:
📍 Upper resistance zone: $400 – $550
📍 Primary cluster: around $250
📍 Support zone: $150 – $200
The chart shows clear volume concentration around $250 — once that level breaks, the next liquidity pocket sits between $150 and $200.
That’s where a potential bottoming cluster could form before the final upward leg.
⚠️ Market Outlook
While other FANG names maintain solid balance sheets and stable earnings, Tesla’s fundamentals are deteriorating sharply.
Yes, the stock may still see short-term pumps driven by sentiment or Musk’s fan base — but markets always return to fundamentals.
And those fundamentals are pointing downward.
📊 Summary
EPS and revenue both trending lower 📉
Forward P/E at 164 — completely disconnected from growth metrics
Technical range suggests potential decline toward $200–$150
Current price action likely part of a larger corrective structure
Long-term investors should exercise extreme caution ⚠️
Tesla isn’t a short-term “growth story” anymore — it’s a valuation risk story.
Until earnings stabilize and margins recover, this stock looks massively overpriced.
LiamTrading – XAUUSD H4 | Gold accumulates on the trendlineLiamTrading – XAUUSD H4 | Gold accumulates on the trendline, waiting to break the structure for a breakout
After testing the upward trendline twice, gold bounced up and then moved sideways around the 4065 area. On H4, this price zone has accumulated for almost a week – indicating that the selling force is not liquid enough to push the price down deeply, while there is still plenty of price gap above according to Fibonacci. My preferred scenario: gold continues to "compress" within the triangle, then breaks out to create a new wave.
Macro – Fed context
Fed member Collins emphasized that there is still reason to be cautious about cutting rates in the December meeting. She stated:
This is a complex phase, and it's not unusual for internal disagreements within the Fed.
The Fed must balance between the two goals of employment and inflation, which are moving in opposite directions.
This makes it difficult for the market to clearly price the interest rate scenario, so gold continues to choose to accumulate around important technical zones instead of breaking out in one direction.
Technical Analysis – Trendline, Fibonacci, Volume Profile
The current H4 structure is a triangle model with:
A downward sloping trendline from the old peak 42xx.
An upward sloping trendline from the late October low, acting as dynamic support.
Zone 4060–4070: the "balance" price zone last week – where the price moved sideways the longest, serving as a reference point for the short-term trend.
Key levels: 4132: near resistance, coinciding with the VAH area of the current Volume Profile.
4171: higher resistance, near the Fibonacci 1.0 area of the recovery wave.
4242: Fibonacci extension confluence zone (1.618) + historical resistance – where strong profit-taking is likely.
4347: 2.618 expansion zone – reference target if the peak is successfully broken.
4022 and 3997: important support close to the lower trendline – main buy zone if there is a liquidity sweep.
When the price decisively breaks out of one of the trendlines, the new trend on H4 will be clearer; the trading plan will follow this breakout direction.
Risk management and invalidation
H4 closes below 3997: the triangle structure is broken downward, fully prioritizing sell orders to lower zones – at that point, medium-term buy orders should not be held.
H4 closes above 4245 with good volume: considered a successful triangle peak breakout, discard all sell orders in this area and focus on buying according to the new trend.
Which scenario are you leaning towards for next week: breaking up to test 4242–4347 or sweeping down to 4022–3997 before bouncing back? Leave a comment and follow the LiamTrading channel on TradingView for daily XAUUSD updates.
XAGUSD : Harmonic structureIn terms of harmonic structure, I can see that XAG shares EXACTLY the same structure as XAU. Yes, exactly the same when the price goes up to the ATH.
In the coming days or weeks, the price will come crashing down, as it has on previous occasions, just that XAG will go down more compared to XAU.
I think most likely deflation is coming.
Good luck.
XAUUSD – ACCUMULATION TRIANGLE ON D1💛 XAUUSD – ACCUMULATION TRIANGLE ON D1, AWAITING A NEW BREAKOUT THIS WEEK 🎯
🌤 Overview of the New Week
Hello everyone, Lana here 💬
Gold, after a very strong rise from the 3,500 region to above 4,400, is entering a "resting" phase on the D1 frame: the price continuously tests the upward trendline but has not yet broken it to confirm a downtrend.
The market is clearly waiting for a real breakout before forming a new medium-term wave.
Next week, we have CPI and PPI – important inflation data that could act as a catalyst to push gold out of the current accumulation zone.
💹 Technical Analysis (Daily Triangle)
On the D1 frame, when connecting the descending peaks and ascending bottoms, gold is in a narrowing triangle pattern.
The upward trendline below is still maintained, indicating that the medium-term trend has not reversed.
Below are important zones:
≈ 3,890: if the price closes below this area, it could confirm medium-term weakening.
Fibonacci & psychological resistance zone 3,800–3,900: strong support, confluence with old price structure.
POC Volume Profile around 3,650: if a deep decline scenario occurs, this will be the next price attraction zone.
Above, the old peak zone around 4,300–4,400 remains a large liquidity zone, a natural target if gold breaks the upper edge of the triangle.
In summary: the more compressed the triangle, the stronger the breakout – the direction will depend heavily on CPI/PPI data & Fed expectations.
🎯 Reference Trading Plan (Medium-Term)
💖 Scenario 1 – Maintain Uptrend (priority when the trendline is not broken)
Observe the reaction at the D1 upward trendline (area around 4,000).
If the price continuously bounces from the trendline and stays above the 3,890 area, you can:
Prioritize buying according to the trend at support retests on H4–H1.
Medium-term targets: 4,150 → 4,250 → 4,300–4,400 if the triangle breaks upwards.
💢 Scenario 2 – Triangle Breaks, Shifts to Medium-Term Decline
If D1 closes below 3,890:
Consider this a signal confirming medium-term weakening.
Prioritize selling at newly formed resistance zones.
Step-by-step targets: 3,800 → 3,700 (POC) → 3,500 (strong previous support).
In both scenarios, specific entry points should be refined on smaller frames (H4, H1) based on price action/OB/FVG.
⚠️ Note News & Risk Management
Next week's CPI & PPI could be the "final blow," pushing gold out of the triangle – volatility can be wide and fast, spreads may widen.
Last week's NFP news hardly created big waves for gold after the US government shutdown, indicating the market is holding strength waiting for more important data.
🌷 Conclusion & Interaction with LanaM2
Gold on D1 is in the final stage of the accumulation triangle – this is a time where patient observation is as important as a beautiful entry point 💛
Next week, I will continue to update daily details on smaller frames so everyone can have more specific entry points.
Cup Complete, Breakout Brewing — Handle Still Lost in Tokyo!Greetings, traders! Market Prophecy is telling a story again… Don’t run — it’s not a horror movie, just a Cup & Handle trying to find its happy ending. Grab your popcorn, because this chart has more drama than a Netflix series!
The difference between EUR/JPY and USD/JPY? Simple: USD/JPY has already finished sipping its cup on the monthly chart, while EUR/JPY is still brewing like a slow barista. (Don’t worry, I’ll spill the details on the daily or weekly EUR/JPY chart later.)
For USD/JPY, the handle is still in progress — think of it as the market adding the latte art before serving the breakout. Best dip-buy zone? Around 120, but even at 140, this pair might bounce like a trader after a margin call.
Once the handle completes and resistance breaks, say goodbye to boring consolidation and hello to trending mode. That’s exactly what happened with XAU/USD — it rocketed sky-high! 🚀 So don’t miss out, unless you enjoy watching profits fly past like shooting stars.
Enjoyed this? Show some love with a LIKE and share your thoughts in the COMMENTS! 💬
Disclaimer
My trading strategy isn’t a signal — it’s more like therapy for my brain. I’m just here crying over candlesticks while pretending it’s ‘learning market structure.’ Sharpening my skills? Sure. Building my trade journal? Absolutely. But deep down, it’s just me whispering to the charts: ‘Please love me back
REAL BTC Dominance compared to FAKE BTC DomincanceThis is real BTC Dominance Chart By subtracting Mcap of major stablecoins like USDT, USDC and DAI Compared to gross btc dominance (BTC.d)
The major misconception that has gripped the crypto market is the gross BTC Dominance.
From 2022, there has been an enormous amount of stablecoin creation by multiple US firms. The Stablecoins are not just used in purchase of crypto assets, but also used in holding real dollar currency in several countries whose national currency is in trouble. Even the Black economy is slowly transitioning from Cash business to USD stables.
The Real BTC Dominance should be a parameter of BTC market cap divided by the total Actual mcap of ETh and all other coins and tokens. That is how we used to judge the BTC dominance prior to 2020 (in 2020 the stablecoin economy was very small and almost entirely used for buying crypto assets only). Since today the USD stablecoin economy is increased enormously, we need to subtract the market cap of the stablecoins to get the real BTC dominance.
BTC Short Setup: Following the Whales to 74,350Bitcoin has tapped into a major premium zone, showing clear signs of distribution and potential weakness. With liquidity building up below the 74,350 level, this area becomes a highly reactive zone where smart money often seeks to rebalance price.
Price has engineered liquidity above recent highs, suggesting a possible manipulation before a deeper move. If momentum continues shifting bearish, I’m watching for a sweep into the 74,350 liquidity pool and potentially lower, where imbalances and resting sell-side liquidity align.
This breakdown focuses on market structure, liquidity dynamics, and institutional behavior — not financial advice, just the logic behind my analysis. Let’s see how price reacts as we approach these key areas.
EUR/JPY’s Coffee Break Before the Big Bull Run!Greetings, traders! Market Prophecy: Forecasting Breakouts, Not Birthdays!
Disclaimer: My trading strategy isn’t a signal—it’s more like a workout for my brain. I’m just here flexing my market structure knowledge and sharpening my trading skills while building my trade journal. Think of it as financial gym time—no personal trainers, just candlesticks!
Attention XXXJPY lovers
In the coming months, we’re about to witness some seriously interesting moves on the XXX/JPY pair. Don’t snooze on this — it could be your chance to turn charts into cash! As we all know, the Cup & Handle is a continuation pattern, and right now, it’s brewing like a perfect latte. After years of depositing, losing, winning, and hitting repeat like a broken playlist, I thought… why not share this trade idea so we can all sip profits together? Let’s make forex fun — and profitable!”
And to answer that PM asking why I do this on weekends when the market is sleeping?
Simple — because weekdays are like speed dating with pips. I’m too busy focusing on my trade plan and fixing those little flaws that sneak in like uninvited guests. Weekends? That’s my chill time with the charts — no drama, no price action,no breakout, no trendline just me and my candlesticks having a quiet coffee date.
“If you found this helpful, hit LIKE & COMMENT ❤️ Because every click saves a trader from staring at charts alone on a Saturday night.”
fé
Having faith in God means believing that, even in the face of difficulties, there is a higher power that understands human suffering and can help overcome it.
Long Useless Short liquidationUseless just did a great down.
My analysis show semi strong buy back/ short liquidation coming in a couple hours.
In. 0.0868
Optimal leverage 9-10
Gold is compressed; next week’s US data will pick a side.Gold is being compressed, the upcoming US data week will decide which side gets squeezed.
Good evening everyone, Brian here with a view on XAUUSD on the H2 and H4 frames for the upcoming week.
Fundamental Analysis – a "tailor-made" week for the USD
Next week is packed with US data, meaning gold will react more to numbers than narratives:
Core PPI, PPI, and Retail Sales
Initial Unemployment Claims
Prelim GDP q/q
Core PCE Price Index m/m – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge
If inflation and growth come out weak, the market will lean more towards the slow growth / easing policy narrative. This usually pressures the USD and supports gold, especially as real yields gradually decline.
Conversely, stronger-than-expected data will strengthen the USD, raise yields, and create short-term downward pressure on gold. In such a context, price and liquidity areas around news releases will be more important than usual – typically, fading emotional spikes back to structural areas is safer than chasing the initial move.
Technical Analysis – triangle, FVG, and key support areas
On the H4 frame, gold is still trading within a broad triangle structure. The previous decline has stalled, with prices continuously reacting at the upward support line and around 4,000, but there has yet to be a clear breakout from the pattern.
When zooming into H1–H2:
The price has broken a short-term downtrend line and closed strongly above – this is an early signal that selling pressure in this move is weakening.
The nearest support is around 4050–4040, deeper is the support band 4000–3998 (marked on the chart as important support). As long as it holds above 4,000, the structure remains positive.
Above, we have a very important confluence area around 4135–4160 including:
Fibo 0.382 of the most recent main decline
An old fair value gap (FVG) and resistance block
Chart note: "Gold will go strong if it passes this price range" – aligns with my view: if the price accepts above this area, the potential for a stronger upward move will open up.
Around 4100 is an area prone to a "large liquidity response" – expect strong profit-taking and position restructuring if the price returns to this area.
Currently, I see the market as accumulating above 4,000 in a corrective pattern, with a slight upward bias as long as 4,000 is maintained.
Key Price Areas
Resistance:
4100 – first liquidity area
4135–4160 – Fibo 0.382 + FVG + strong resistance
Support:
4050–4040 – nearest intraday support
4000–3998 – large frame support; if broken, it will change the picture
3940 area – stronger support if 4k is breached
Trading Scenarios for Next Week
(All are for reference only, not investment advice.)
Scenario 1 – Buy when the price adjusts above 4,000 (foundation for the next upward wave)
Idea: follow the forming upward bias as the price still respects the triangle support and the 4,000 mark.
Entry area: 4050–4040 or any clean retest of the broken downtrend line on smaller frames
Area for cautious position addition: 4025–4005 if there is a deep sweep to 4,000 with a strong rebound reaction
Stop Loss: below 3990–3988 depending on risk appetite
Targets:
First: 4100 (liquidity area)
Second: 4135–4140 (lower edge of FVG/resistance)
Extended: 4155–4160 if a strong continuation move appears
Signals to wait for: wick rejection from support, bullish engulfing candle, or clear intraday structural phase shift to a series of higher highs and lows.
Scenario 2 – Break & Retest Long above 4135–4140
If the price does not give a deep adjustment but runs straight up:
Condition: H2/H4 candle closes clearly above 4135–4140 and holds when retesting
Entry: when the price pulls back in a controlled manner to the 4135–4140 area, turning this area from resistance to support
SL: below 4120
TP: 4180 → 4200+ depending on momentum strength
This is the "gold goes strong" scenario as noted on the chart – viewing the FVG/0.382 area as a launchpad for a larger impulse wave.
Scenario 3 – Bearish scenario if 4,000 is broken
If fundamentals and cash flow turn against gold, decisively pushing the price below 4,000, the bullish view needs to be set aside.
Condition: daily candle closes clearly below 4000–3998
Plan: wait for the price to retrace up to retest 4000–4020 from below
Entry: short when rejection signals appear at that retest area
TP: 3960 → 3940, then reassess the structure
When below 4,000, the triangle will break down, and the market is likely to hunt deeper liquidity areas before potentially forming a new medium-term upward wave.
In summary: as long as 4,000 holds, I prioritize the buy scenario on adjustments, respecting the upward potential to 4135–4160 and beyond. If there is a decisive break below 4,000, the picture will reverse – then retracements up will be opportunities to look for shorts.
Trade according to what the structure shows, not what I hope for. Manage risk tightly around next week's data points and let the major price areas "do the heavy lifting."
If this perspective helps you plan better, don't forget to follow Brian for weekly gold analysis and share your scenarios in the comments to compare.
PYPL USPayPal is a rare combination of value and growth.
The company demonstrates strong fundamentals, is strategically focused on the future, and trades at record-low multiples. The combination of financial discipline, capital return, and AI innovation makes it an attractive asset for long-term investors.
The most recent quarter confirmed the resilience of PayPal's business model.
Revenue: $8.42 billion (+7% y-o-y).
Adjusted earnings per share: $1.34, exceeding analyst expectations by $0.14.
Total payment volume (TPV): $458 billion (+8% y-o-y), demonstrating the platform's scale and activity.
Free cash flow (FCF): $2.3 billion for the quarter, and the FCF margin increased 7 percentage points to 27%. This demonstrates high efficiency and the ability to generate cash.
Key Growth Drivers
Paypal isn't dependent on a single product, but is developing several promising areas.
Venmo: The main growth driver. Revenue accelerated to +14% year-on-year. The service is not only growing, but also becoming more profitable.
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL): Growing by more than 20% annually, in line with changing consumer behavior.
Upward Guidance: Management raised its adjusted EPS guidance for 2025 to $5.35-$5.39, implying growth of 15-16% year-on-year.
Partnership with OpenAI
This isn't just marketing, but a strategic bet on the future of commerce.
Bottom Line: PayPal is becoming the default payment infrastructure within ChatGPT. Users can instantly transition from searching for a product through an AI-powered conversation to paying with PayPal without leaving the chat.
Meaning:
For PayPal: A new, massive sales channel—"AI commerce" (agentic commerce)—is opening. The company is becoming a "commerce bus" between millions of its merchants and AI users.
For merchants: They automatically gain access to the ChatGPT storefront without the need for complex integration.
For OpenAI: ChatGPT is evolving from an assistant into a full-fledged commerce platform.
The company declared its first-ever dividend of $0.14 per share.
There is also a $6 billion annual buyback program. Shares have declined by 6.25% over the past year.
The "Dividend + Buyback" combination is a powerful signal that the company believes its shares are undervalued.
Historically low valuation
This is a key element of the investment thesis. The market completely ignores positive developments.
Multiples: PayPal trades at only ~12x expected 2026 earnings. This is lower than many less profitable fintech competitors (SoFi, Block).
The investor is paying a price that assumes a complete lack of future growth, while the company is showing double-digit profit growth, generating record cash flow, and building the business of the future.
From a technical analysis perspective , we are in the accumulation zone.
The price is near an uptrend line.
The RSI also signals divergence🌎
You Not Mess This [weekly analysis Nov. 24-28th 2025]Get ready for a deep dive into the key market moves, upcoming catalysts, and trade ideas you can’t afford to miss. In this week’s edition we’ll cover:
EURUSD BTc S&P500 AUDNZD AUDNZD GBPCAD
AMZN MSFT FTSE
🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe and hit the bell so you never miss a weekly breakdown.
📣 Share your thoughts in the comments: What are you bullish/concerned about this week? What setups are you watching?
Report 22/11/25Report Summary
Christine Lagarde’s Frankfurt speech formalizes what the data have been hinting at: Europe’s export-led growth model has decoupled from global demand and is now a vulnerability. She urged governments to remove internal barriers in the single market and to lean into domestic demand as the new shock absorber. The ECB has paused after an eight-cut cycle, but the thrust of her remarks puts the onus on fiscal integration and micro reforms, not more rate relief. This lands alongside three market-moving developments: Brussels pressing ahead with a plan to mobilize frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine, Washington’s partial rollback of the 40% tariff on selected Brazilian food imports, and Tokyo’s large fiscal push as JGB yields hit multi-decade highs. Together they imply stickier cross-currents: Europe wrestling with low trend growth and a tougher industrial mix, the U.S. mixing selective de-tariffing with broader protectionism, and Japan attempting stimulus while its term premium normalizes. Expect risk to trade on policy credibility and relative growth rather than a one-way “soft landing” narrative. The equity tape’s chop around AI bellwethers and a stronger dollar late in the week are consistent with that rotation.
Europe: growth model reset, policy friction, and banks
Lagarde described years of inaction and underscored that countries with large manufacturing bases have endured a “prolonged slump in industrial production,” urging policymakers to strengthen domestic demand and finally dismantle internal-market barriers, an ECB analysis equates those frictions to triple-digit tariff equivalents on services and mid-double-digits on goods. That is a blunt acknowledgment that Europe’s external-surplus model is out of date. For markets, it argues for a lower equilibrium EUR growth premium, a flatter inflation impulse than the U.S., and a wider distribution of outcomes driven by fiscal execution rather than monetary easing. Near-term, this mix supports high-quality, cash-rich defensives over cyclicals in European indices and keeps peripheral spreads sensitive to any backsliding on reform. Banks are the swing factor: an ECB supervisory push to relax national “traps” on capital/liquidity movements and to look more favorably on waivers would improve cross-border ROE and M&A math, but needs EU-level follow-through to be durable.
Brussels, meanwhile, intends to proceed with its “reparations loan” architecture using income from immobilized Russian assets to back a ~€140 bn package for Kyiv. The alternative floated in a new U.S. peace proposal, channeling assets into U.S.-led investment vehicles, raises transatlantic coordination risk. Markets will read any legal or political challenges (especially from euro-area custodians) as headline risk for euro-denominated collateral and for EU cohesion; domestically it complicates budget arithmetic. Watch for periodic volatility in European financials around legal milestones.
U.S.: tariffs, growth mix, and the “don’t over-price cuts” message
The White House carved out exemptions from the 40% tariff on some Brazilian agricultural goods (coffee, beef, fruits/spices), citing initial progress in talks. Practically, this trims an upside tail for certain U.S. food CPI components in early 2026 and marginally eases inventory and hedging stress for grocers and CPGs. It does not negate the broader protectionist stance, so supply-chain rerouting and tariff-arbitrage behaviors continue. Equities responded with another choppy session as AI-linked megacaps whipsawed and the cash dollar found support. The broader investment takeaway aligns with the buy-side’s recent warnings: market-implied Fed cuts are still vulnerable to upside growth/AI-capex surprises; don’t over-rely on policy easing to carry multiples.
Japan: big fiscal, bigger yields, and an FX dilemma
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi unveiled a roughly ¥21.3 trn (~$135 bn) stimulus centered on energy subsidies and household support, set against talk of a supplemental budget materially larger than investors first expected. JGB yields have surged to levels last seen in the GFC era as markets price a thicker fiscal risk premium and a BoJ that is stepping back from heavy-handed duration absorption; 10-years have probed ~1.78–1.80%, and 30-years hit fresh cycle highs. Foreign participation has jumped as rule changes and relative value versus global curves improved the appeal of long-dated paper. Net-net, Japan’s rates are now sufficiently “real” to anchor some domestic bid for the yen, yet the fiscal impulse and sticky U.S. growth keep USDJPY biased higher unless the MoF leans in. This “tug-of-war” puts a volatility floor under the pair for now.
Commodities and strategic raw materials: policy puts
Two policy arcs matter for raw materials. First, the EU’s intent to coordinate purchases and stockpile critical minerals (with funding and even price-floor concepts) to reduce vulnerability to U.S.–China frictions signals a multi-year European demand backstop for lithium, copper and rare earths. If delivered, it supports higher floor prices and may re-rate selected EU-listed miners/refiners as “policy beneficiaries.” Second, western coordination against subsidized Asian steel overcapacity is gathering momentum through the OECD forum, implying firmer anti-dumping actions and a bid for regional steel spreads. Together with China’s active reserve-build in oil, Beijing is adding new storage capacity through 2026, these dynamics argue for firmer term structures in industrials and a damped downside in crude on inventory diplomacy.
U.S. tech & regulation: antitrust and audit plumbing
In the background, the court’s rejection of the FTC’s monopoly case against Meta reduces breakup risk for one of Big Tech’s key ad platforms and softens the perceived regulatory overhang for the complex, at least near-term. For multiples, that’s modestly supportive on dips, though the medium-term capex/depreciation cycle still drives earnings quality.
Asset-by-asset implications
XAUUSD (gold): Europe’s structural growth reset plus EU legal frictions over Russian assets keep a bid under geopolitical/rule-of-law hedges even as U.S. real yields remain elevated. The Japanese stimulus-plus-yield surge adds a second-order tail (policy error hedging). Expect dip-buyers near prior breakout areas if DXY consolidates; rallies fade if U.S. growth upside reins in 2026 cut pricing.
S&P 500 / Dow Jones: Index internals matter more than headline levels. AI capex continues to cushion top-line growth and cash flows for cloud-exposed names, but elevated depreciation and inventory-of-compute will pressure operating leverage into 2026. The tariff tweak on Brazilian food is small beer for margins but incrementally helpful for staples. Expect continued factor rotation: quality balance sheets and cash generative megacaps over cyclicals tied to EU industrial demand; domestics over exporters while the dollar stays firm.
USDJPY: The fiscal package’s duration supply and higher JGB term premium pull the yen two ways: structurally supportive over multi-quarters, tactically bearish as U.S.–Japan rate differentials remain wide. Intervention risk rises if one-way momentum resumes; look for MoF verbal cues around round numbers and volatility spikes. Base case: broader 152–160 ranges until either BoJ hikes again or U.S. disinflation accelerates.
DXY (Dollar Index): With Europe signaling a growth-model rethink and Japan absorbing higher yields without a decisive BoJ tightening, the dollar retains carry and growth advantages into year-end. The risk to that stance is a clearer softening in U.S. labor data or an AI-capex slowdown. Near-term, event risk around data delays and policy headlines will continue to whipsaw positioning.
Crude oil: China’s active reserve-build and capacity additions to its stockpiles set a floor under demand dips, while U.S.–Saudi commercial ties continue to channel capital into AI/datacenter and potentially defense-energy linkages. Absent fresh supply shocks, policy-driven inventory accumulation argues against a sustained break lower in Brent through winter shoulder months.
Strategic forecasts, fiscal/political implications, risks & opportunities
Over the next one to three quarters, Europe’s growth premium probably compresses further unless there is credible movement on single-market liberalization; watch for concrete proposals to cut services-market barriers and to green-light cross-border banking waivers—these would be the first “proof points” the equity market will pay for. U.S. policy will remain selectively protectionist, so supply chains keep optimizing for tariff maps; today’s Brazil carve-outs are tactical and inflation-messaging friendly, not a regime change. Japan’s pivot is real: larger fiscal outlays financed down the curve and a BoJ that is less of a marginal buyer re-anchor the JGB market and raise the bar for USDJPY upside persistence, an FX vol-selling regime is less attractive.
Principal macro risks: legal blowback and tit-for-tat around Russian asset income (euro-market plumbing risk); a “growth scare” in Europe that forces fiscal loosening without reform; U.S. AI-capex disappointment that compresses equity risk premia; and a disorderly yen rally if MoF intervenes into a thin tape. Principal opportunities: European bank re-rating if capital-mobility waivers gain real traction; U.S. staples and grocers benefiting from lower imported food-cost pressure at the margin; long-duration JGBs in tactical windows as foreign demand stabilizes auctions; and selected miners/refiners tied to EU critical-mineral stockpiling plans.
Cross-asset satellites tied to this tape
European banks are a convex opportunity if, and only if, there is real progress on waiving national capital/liquidity traps and enabling cross-border balance-sheet mobility. I would accumulate a starter position in the Euro Stoxx Banks basket on dips with a tight catalyst leash: if we do not get concrete supervisory steps or Brussels-level support in the next policy window, step aside. A credible waiver regime raises steady-state ROE and re-opens M&A optionality; no progress leaves them as duration-and-cycle plays with headline risk from the Ukraine-assets scheme.
EU miners and refiners linked to critical raw materials benefit from Brussels’ plan to coordinate purchases and stockpile. Express this with a barbelled approach: hold a core in diversified EU-listed producers and rent higher-beta lithium names around EU announcements and off-take news, hedging the China-demand tail with short Asian steel or chemical proxies when the OECD “excess capacity” process heats up. If the EU couples purchasing with price-floor mechanisms, the skew turns more structural.
Japanese duration is a tactical rather than strategic long. Foreign demand has returned at the long end, but issuance will rise with the supplemental budget and the BoJ is stepping back from heavy purchases. The cleaner trade is a curve expression: look to re-enter 10s30s steepeners on pullbacks, and pair them with a small long-yen options overlay to capture the “policy surprise” tail.
Immediate catalysts and what to watch
The next two to six weeks revolve around four decision nodes. First, the ECB’s December meeting and any staff work released on internal-market frictions; evidence of a concrete plan to lower services barriers would be the first durable bullish impulse for European cyclicals, while more rhetoric with no road map sustains the defensive bias. Second, EU Council discussions on using income from immobilized Russian assets to back Ukraine’s financing package; legal or political cracks, especially from euro-area custodians, would pressure EU financials on headlines even if the architecture survives. Third, Tokyo’s final supplemental-budget size and JGB issuance plan; anything that pushes duration supply materially higher without a BoJ counter-signal should keep USDJPY volatile and JGBs heavy, while a measured package with credible funding calms both. Fourth, U.S. macro prints and AI-capex updates from the cloud majors; upside growth surprises argue for trimming rate-cut pricing and favor the dollar and quality stocks, while misses finally give breath to duration and to gold.
Risk controls
If the U.S. labor market weakens decisively and the Fed’s reaction function turns more dovish than the buy-side now expects, the dollar leg higher will stall; in that case, cut the core DXY long, flip crude from range-trade to accumulation, and let gold run with trailing stops. If the EU produces a real, time-bound plan to dismantle internal barriers and if supervisors fast-track capital-waiver pilots, rotate from defensives to EU cyclicals and add banks tactically. If MoF intervenes repeatedly and the BoJ tightens ahead of schedule, stand down on USDJPY longs and look for a sequence of lower highs to sell rallies instead. If AI-capex guidance falters, expect a factor-wide de-rating; lean on the S&P hedges, reduce cloud beta and keep staples and healthcare as ballast.
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Monthly Crypto Analysis: Ripple (XRPUSD) – Issue 105 The analyst expects Ripple’s price to decline by the specified end time, based on quantitative analysis.
The take-profit level only highlights the potential price range during this period — it’s optional and not a prediction that the market will necessarily reach it.
You don’t need to go all-in or use leverage to trade wisely.
Allocating just a portion of your funds helps keep overall risk low and ensures a more sustainable approach.
Our strategy is built on institutional portfolio management principles, not the high-risk, all-in trading styles often promoted on social media.
Results are evaluated over the entire analysis period, regardless of whether the take-profit level is reached.
-The validity of this analysis is based on a specific time range (until 19 Dec 2025), and after this period, the analysis will be reviewed and updated (once every 28 days).
EUR/USD – Potential Trade SetupI was expecting a price rebound from the 1.14938 level, and the pair did touch this area. However, the current trend is downward, so the only potential entry would be after breaking the previous highs to take liquidity before resuming the decline.
Currently, the available opportunity is around 1.15633, following the high taken at 1.15525. Traders should watch for confirmations before entering and manage risk carefully, as the overall momentum remains bearish.
Choppy market, but still present opportunities…Hello traders!
Weekly outlooks will most likely be published over the weekend while the market is closed. This gives us the opportunity to analyze the market while it is dormant to eliminate the noise. We will begin the AUDCAD.
Short-term technicals are suggesting a slightly bullish market. Within the next month, we could see a choppy market where price range between 0.90500 and 0.91500. This could be likely since there are no major central bank surprises expected in the next 2–4 weeks and the commodities such as oil for Canada and iron for Australia are currently stable and RBA & BoC holding rates steady as we head into December, hopefully no surprises from China.
Looking at the chart provided, we had a weekly low around 0.90671 on Tuesday right before midnight and the market rallied quickly 0.91320. This low that was created act as a strong support this week and the market attempted to break below this support and failed as buyers took advantage of a premium price near 0.90500. We end the trading week closing above 0.91000 which may indicate bullish intentions, at least for now. If price remains above 0.90500, we could see this pair trading around 0.91500 before the end of the quarter.
This is an idea, not a signal…. and we should continue looking for confirmations. Remember, we can always try to predict the market, but it’s best to know when to react.
