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Fundamental Analysis

LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold breaks upward trend, short...LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold breaks upward trend, short-term decline prevails Gold has dropped more than $20 in a short time, down over 1% on the day and is approaching the area below 4,030. The previous upward structure has officially been broken, 4040 can no longer hold, today's focus continues to be on selling according to the trend until the support area 4000–398x shows a clear reaction. Macro Analysis Gold prices fall simultaneously with weakening expectations of a December rate cut: JPMorgan no longer forecasts the Fed will cut rates in December, unlike the previous scenario of a 25 bps cut. Some other organizations still believe that rising unemployment and weak economic data may force the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps in the next meeting. The market is pricing the possibility of a December rate cut at nearly "50–50", creating significant uncertainty and putting short-term pressure on gold, although in the long term it still benefits if the rate cut cycle occurs. Technical Analysis H1 – Declining structure, price channel, and support area After breaking 4040, the price creates a series of Lower High – Lower Low, confirming the Dow declining structure on H1. A falling channel is forming; the upper boundary of the channel coincides with the short-term resistance area 4050–4060. Area 4000: important psychological bottom. If decisively broken, the medium-term structure may shift to a deeper correction phase. Buy zone 3987–3989: Strong support confluence + Fibonacci extension area (1.618/2.272) of the current decline. Optimal area to watch for a rebound if there is a clear reversal signal. Main resistance of the day: 4052–4054: retest area of old support + upper boundary of the falling channel → suitable for a sell rebound scenario. Today's Trading Scenario (LiamTrading) Scenario 1 – SELL according to the downtrend (priority) Entry: 4052–4054 SL: 4060 TP: 4030 → 4015 → 3990 Logic: Price rebounds to resistance area + upper boundary of the falling channel, suitable to continue selling according to the trend. Priority when M15 shows rejection candles (pin bar/bearish engulfing) around 405x. Scenario 2 – BUY at strong support area 398x (catching the rebound) Entry: 3987–3989 SL: 3980 TP: 3999 → 4014 → 4040 → 4080 Logic: Area 398x is a strong support confluence; only activate when there is a clear price reaction (long lower wick, reversal pattern on M15–H1). This is a counter-trend order, so reduce volume and take partial profits. Note risks and invalidation H1 closes above 4060: short-term declining structure weakens, need to pause all sell orders and reassess. H1 closes below 3980: buy zone fails, risk of further decline to lower areas; at this point, only prioritize selling. Always keep risk per order at 0.5–1% of the account, reaching about +1R should move SL to breakeven. Are you leaning towards continuing to sell according to the trend or waiting to catch the bottom at 398x? Leave a comment and follow LiamTrading channel on TradingView for daily XAUUSD updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LiamTradingFX
HSI Index Falls to November LowHSI Index Falls to November Low Today, the Hong Kong stock index HSI is showing downward momentum, dropping below 25,200 for the first time since mid-October. Factors adding to selling pressure include (according to media reports): → Tech sector slump: Hong Kong is following the US, where investors have started offloading tech giants’ shares amid fears of an AI “bubble.” Market participants worry that current company valuations are overinflated. Even Nvidia’s strong report released this week only provided a short-term boost. → Geopolitics: In addition to strained trade relations between China and the US, tensions with Japan have added to uncertainty. → China’s economic data: Indicators continue to raise concerns despite government stimulus measures. Technical analysis of the HSI shows that price action since late summer 2025 formed an upward channel (marked in blue). At the same time: → on 5 November, the price rebounded sharply from the lower boundary, confirming strong buying interest; → this week (as indicated by the arrow), it failed to reverse upwards. As a result, bears have pushed through an important support level and are attempting to consolidate their gains. It is possible that: → the 25,700 level (where the channel was broken) may act as resistance; → bears may grow more ambitious, potentially driving the HSI down to test key support around 24,800 in the near term. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:HSI
by FXOpen
1
Spot + Hedge — The Fundamental Framework for Investors Who TradeYou don’t have to treat holding and trading as two separate worlds. The most effective market participants combine both. They anchor their strategy in long-term conviction while using short-term tools to manage volatility and protect capital. This balance allows them to participate in structural growth without exposing their portfolio to unnecessary drawdowns. Spot holdings are the foundation. A well-built spot position compounds through cycles, absorbs volatility, and benefits from every wave of adoption that pushes the market forward. Staking adds an additional layer by generating yield during periods of consolidation. For traders who think in cycles rather than days, spot is the engine that keeps building value in the background. A hedge position serves a different purpose. It is not designed for aggressive speculation. It is a tactical layer that reduces exposure when conditions become unstable. Futures shorts, when sized properly, act as a defensive tool that preserves the value of your long-term assets without forcing you to sell them. This approach keeps you invested while giving you room to breathe during sharp corrections. When hedging makes sense: – After a strong rally pushing into major resistance levels. – When funding rates are extremely positive and the market is crowded with leveraged longs. – When macro data shifts, liquidity tightens, or a regulatory event increases uncertainty. – When your portfolio has grown significantly and you want to lock in part of that increase without taking profits. The purpose of the hedge is stability. You are not aiming to turn the short into a profit engine. You are using it as portfolio insurance. A well-timed hedge limits the damage during pullbacks and keeps you positioned for the next leg of the cycle. Simple implementation example: assume you hold $20,000 of ETH spot as your long-term allocation. To hedge, you short 25–30 percent of the position using ETH perpetual contracts. If ETH drops 10 percent, the hedge cushions the downside by generating gains on the short. If ETH continues rising, your spot position captures the upside and the hedge becomes the cost of protection, similar to an insurance premium. This framework helps traders stay in the market, avoid emotional exits, and preserve capital during volatile periods. It combines conviction with discipline and gives long-term holders a practical way to navigate uncertainty without breaking their overall strategy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by SamDrnda
13
Gold is stuck in a wide range, ready for a decisive break.Good evening traders, Brian here with a fresh look at gold on the 2-hour chart. Price is compressing in a broad sideways range, building energy for the next leg – the break from this structure will set the tone for the coming sessions. Fundamental analysis The core driver remains the Fed’s December decision. The market is effectively split on whether we see a cut or a delay: A camp of institutions argues that rising unemployment and softer data could still justify a 25-basis-point cut in December, keeping pressure on the dollar and supporting gold on dips. Others point out that the Fed is short of clean, up-to-date data and may prefer to wait until next year before committing to an easing cycle. As a result, pricing for a December cut is roughly “fifty–fifty” and highly sensitive to the next run of labour-market and activity data. In short: the macro backdrop is undecided, so intraday direction will be driven mainly by levels and liquidity until the next data catalyst hits. Technical analysis On the H2 chart, gold is in a broad consolidation after the recent sell-off: Price is trading inside a descending structure, repeatedly respecting the short-term trendline from the recent high. The Fibonacci retracement of the latest impulse shows the 0.382 level lining up with a prior fair-value gap and horizontal resistance – this forms a key rejection zone overhead. Below price, there is a confluence of support where the rising trendline meets a small bullish FVG around 4027–4029, followed by a more important horizontal support band near 3998. The volume profile highlights a Value Area High (VAH) around 4075–4080, which is likely to act as a reaction zone if price rotates back into it. Until we break convincingly out of this structure, I treat it as a large accumulation range with a slight downside bias: sellers are still defending lower highs, but buyers are stepping in aggressively at trendline support. Key levels Resistance zones: 4080–4085 (VAH / short-term supply) 4135–4145 (Fibonacci 0.382 + FVG + structural resistance) Support zones: 4027–4029 (trendline + FVG confluence buy area) 3995–4000 (important horizontal support) 3940 region (deeper support if the range finally breaks down) Trade scenarios 1. Primary long – buy the trendline/FVG confluence Entry: 4027–4029 Stop: 4023 Targets: 4035 – 4050 – 4068 – 4080 Idea: look for price to react at the rising trendline where it overlaps with the small FVG. A clean rejection candle or shift in intraday order flow from that zone sets up a rotation back towards the VAH and potentially the upper boundary of the range. 2. Break-and-retest short – if the trendline fails Trigger: clear H1/H2 close below the rising trendline and the 4027 area Plan: wait for price to retest the underside of the broken trendline / prior support Entry: on rejection of that retest Initial targets: 4000, then 3940 if momentum accelerates This scenario treats any breakdown as a structural shift, using the retest as a lower-risk point to join the move rather than chasing the first leg. 3. Intraday scalp zones These are discretionary, short-term opportunities for active traders: Reaction sells: around 4085, and higher up if we spike into the 4135–4145 resistance band. Look for exhaustion or rejection patterns back into the range (potential targets 4060 then 4033). Reaction buys: into 3998–4000 if we see a liquidity sweep below the current range, with tight stops and quick profit-taking back towards the mid-range.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
1
Gold Weakening Inside Triangle – Bears Eye $3,950 SupportGold is currently consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle formation between 3972 support and 4025 resistance showing reduced volatility and awaiting breakout confirmation. The structure suggests indecision but with a slight bearish bias due to repeated lower highs. Sell Zone: 3995-4020 (near upper triangle resistance and 0.382-0.5 fib region) Stop Loss: Above 4046 TP1: 3950 TP2: 3915 TP 3: 3885 ⚠️ Current bias: Neutral to bearish unless gold breaks and holds above 4025-4046 zone. Weak low near 3886 may attract liquidity if bearish pressure continues. Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold Under Pressure: Key Resistance Holds, More Downside LikelyGold is moving inside a descending channel showing clear bearish pressure. Price is struggling to hold above 4050-70 and repeated rejections from the upper trendline confirm sellers are still in control. A clean break below 4025 can open the way toward the deeper liquidity zones around 4010 and 3975. As long as price stays below the falling trendline the bias remains bearish and any small pullback toward 4075-90 will likely act as a selling opportunity. Only a strong breakout above 4100-20 would shift momentum back to buyers. ✅ Bias: Sell below 4060-85 resistance Sell Zone : 4075–4090 Stop Loss : Above 4120 Take Profit : 4025 - 4010 - 3975 Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
Gold at Make-or-Break Level – High-Probability Short Setup LoadiGold is still trading inside a corrective structure after forming a clear lower low and then consolidating. Price has tapped the mid range zone and is now reacting from a short term supply area. As long as gold stays below 4130–4145 the bearish structure remains intact and the downside continuation toward 4025 → 4000 → 3950 remains the primary expectation. A short setup becomes active once price gives rejection or a small BOS from the current supply zone. The trade becomes invalid if gold breaks and closes above 4150 which would shift structure and open the way for a deeper pullback toward 4175–4200. Sell Zone : 4130 - 4145 Invalidation : Break & close above 4150 Targets: 4075 → 4025 → 4000 → 3950 Note Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SibiSh
SOLANA → Manipulation - false breakout of resistance BINANCE:SOLUSDT.P flew up to resistance at 143.35 at the opening of the session and attempted to break through it, but bears may not let the price rise ahead of the news... Bitcoin is forming a local correction after a sharp decline. However, news is ahead and the market may remain within a narrow range. From the opening of the session, SOL rallies and breaks through the channel resistance, wasting 75% of its intraday growth potential. However, there is no momentum to continue the growth. It can be assumed that the coin is facing pressure. A false breakout and closing below 143.3 could trigger a pullback. Resistance levels: 143.35, 150.87 Support levels: 135.67, 130.0 Two key levels for countertrend movement: 143.35 - 150.87. If the liquidity pool does not stop the price at the nearest level, then 150.87 can be considered as an additional level for trading a false breakout. However, news on unemployment is coming soon, and the market may react quite aggressively. Therefore, if there are no trading opportunities before the news, I recommend refraining from action for an hour and waiting out the storm... Best regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
5
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 21, 2025 GBPUSDThe pound remains under pressure after weak inflation data in the UK: headline CPI fell to 3.6% y/y and core to 3.4%, which has strengthened expectations of a Bank of England rate cut as early as December. Against this backdrop, the dollar retains the upper hand and the US dollar index is holding around 100. The combination of soft price dynamics and a cautious central bank shifts the balance of risks against GBP, limiting investors’ interest in the pound. There are signs of a cooling labour market: unemployment at 5% and wage growth at 4.2% y/y. Fiscal policy remains a key driver: markets are awaiting the Autumn Budget Statement on 26 November, assessing the room for stimulus and potential borrowing plans. Earlier Treasury data pointed to moderate borrowing volumes, but weak growth dynamics constrain room for manoeuvre. At the same time, demand and labour market conditions in the US remain resilient, supporting the dollar and keeping GBP/USD near the lower end of its recent range. The market is looking for clearer guidance from the Treasury and the Bank of England on the policy path and timing. Base case: with inflation easing and employment cooling, it is easier for the Bank of England to start a rate-cutting cycle than to tighten conditions further. This narrows the attractiveness of the pound relative to the dollar, which is supported by higher yields and robust US data. The scenario is to sell from 1.31000 with risk control. A turning point is possible if UK data surprise to the upside or the budget contains strong measures to support demand and productivity. Additional focus should be on Bank of England commentary. Trade recommendation: SELL 1.31000, SL 1.31500, TP 1.30000
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Moving sideways and waiting for a breakout🔍 1. Descending Trendline (red line) This is an important dynamic resistance. Price has touched the descending trendline many times and been rejected → the overall trend still leans bearish. Each retest of the trendline that fails to break gives a sell signal. 👉 Only when price closes above the descending trendline will the short-term trend have a chance to reverse. 🟦 2. Upper Resistance (light blue zone) This is the area where the market previously made a strong reversal → strong supply zone. If price breaks the trendline and moves toward this zone, it is a high-probability area where selling pressure may appear again. 🟩 3. Key Support (green zone) Price has reacted many times at this support zone → strong support. This is also where price can form a reversal pattern if buyers return. 👉 If price breaks below this support, the bearish trend will continue strongly toward the lower support zone. 🔄 4. Trading Scenarios Scenario 1: Breakout of the descending trendline → Price moves up to resistance Price may bounce from the current support area → move up to retest the descending trendline. If the trendline is broken and retested successfully → target is the major resistance zone above. For BUY: Wait for a break & retest of the descending trendline. BUY GOLD : 4000 - 3998 Stoploss : 3988 Take Profit : 100-300-500pips SELL GOLD : 4130 - 4132 Stoploss : 4142 Take Profit : 100-300-500pips
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AstronautPioneer
I will be going long on gold after the market opens.Are youreadyGold prices remained relatively stable this week, offering traders some room for maneuver. This week, after reaching a high of 4132, gold prices fluctuated between 4000 and 4110, showing greater stability compared to the previous volatile market. This provided favorable conditions for implementing trading strategies, and several short-selling operations during this period also achieved the expected results. From a weekly chart perspective, the chart shows a doji pattern, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears are relatively balanced in the short term, lacking a clear one-sided trend, suggesting that investors are generally cautious. Historical data shows that Fridays are often prone to price fluctuations, so it is necessary to remain vigilant about risk management. Looking at the hourly chart, prices have entered a key support/resistance zone, currently trading near the Bollinger Band's middle line. If it can effectively hold this position, it is expected to retest the resistance levels of $4090 and $4100. In terms of trading strategy, it is recommended to place long orders in batches within the 4050 to 4070 range after the market opens, and closely monitor market dynamics. If there are any further changes, we will promptly notify you of any adjustments to the plan. The above are my personal thoughts! If they are helpful to you or you agree with my ideas, please like and follow to support me! All strategies have a limited lifespan, so while referring to them, you should also closely monitor market changes. I will also respond flexibly according to actual market fluctuations, and I will announce the specifics in the channel!
TVC:GOLDLong
by Market_Trading_Guide
BTCUSD : Price cross the bluelineNow is when things get interesting. As anticipated long ago, price is now approaching the 2025 low. This is just the first stop. What many thought was IMPOSSIBLE is now happening. First, the MM has taken out the LEVERAGED players. Now, as anticipated, it will come to those who are playing using BORROWED money. Time is on their side. Price will test the 2024 low. It will go to the 2023 low if need be. Good luck. P/S: I would be accumulating - the more, the lower it goes.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by i_am_siew
1
XAUUSD–FRIDAY BEFORE PMI: MAINTAINING HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN💛 XAUUSD – FRIDAY BEFORE PMI: MAINTAINING HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN, WAITING TO BREAK RANGE 4132–3998 🎯 🌤 1. Overview Hello everyone, it's Lana here again 💬 Today is the last Friday of the week, the market is waiting for PMI and preparing to enter a phase with a lot of important data in December. Meanwhile, BTC has been rising faster than XAU in recent weeks, indicating that speculative money is leaning towards crypto, while gold is temporarily moving sideways accumulating. The US Department of Labor will release the November employment report on December 16, which is 6 days after the December Fed meeting. In other words, the Fed is in a "blackout" state regarding labor data for nearly another month – this forces the market to price in advance, making gold's volatility range wide but lacking a clear trend. 💹 2. Technical Analysis – Range & Head and Shoulders Pattern On the H3/H4 frame, gold is fluctuating within the large range of 4132 – 3998. The price wave is gradually narrowing towards the end of the triangle, represented by: Lower highs, Higher lows, → When one of the two boundaries is broken, a new trend is likely to explode in the direction of the breakout. The inverse Head – Shoulders – Head pattern has not been broken: Left shoulder – Head – Right shoulder are all above the rising trendline. For the final wave of the pattern to follow the rhythm, the price needs to confirm surpassing 4109: When closing a candle above 4109, the short-term uptrend is confirmed, At that point, gold can aim for higher liquidity areas such as 4132 → 4145 → 4200. Conversely, if gold breaks 3998, this will be both: breaking the range bottom, and negating the Head and Shoulders pattern, → opening the possibility of a deeper decline to the 3960–3920 area. 🎯 3. Reference Trading Scenarios 💖 BUY Scenario – following the pattern & range bottom support 1️⃣ Buy at support 3998–4000 Entry: 3998–4000 SL: below 3990 (depending on risk management) TP: 4025 → 4040 → 4078 2️⃣ Buy when confirmed above 4109 Condition: Price closes a candle above 4109, confirming the Head and Shoulders pattern is maintained. Entry: around 4100–4105 SL: 4090 TP: 4132 → 4145 → 4200 💢 SELL Scenario – trading the upper boundary of the range Sell: 4130–4132 SL: 4138 TP: 4110 → 4095 → 4070 → 4045 Selling should only be considered as scalping against resistance within the range, not the main trend if the Head and Shoulders pattern is still valid. ⚠️ 4. Notes & Risk Management Range 4132–3998 is still controlling the market: Above 4109 → prioritize Buy according to the short-term uptrend. Below 3998 → consider shifting bias to Sell following the breakout. PMI, Fed expectations, and upcoming employment data may trigger unexpected volatility, therefore: 🌷Gold is at the intersection of technical patterns and macro stories 💛 Be patient and wait for reactions at 3998 and 4109, as these are the two key points that determine whether we enter a new upward wave or a deeper decline. 💛 Like – 💬 Comment – 🔔 Follow LanaM2 to follow gold with me every day ✨
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
Market Outlook: Bitcoin Path to $150KThe broader structure on Bitcoin still points toward a long-term expansion into and possibly above the $150K region, but the chart is showing as always that we won’t get there in a straight line. Just like when I previously predicted Bitcoin’s move to $108K (See my 2021 Bold but slightly off in timing call here: ), the current setup is following the same pattern of exhaustion → correction → expansion. The signs are repeating and becoming clear again: momentum is slowing, resistance is rejecting harder and faster than ever, and volume is now tapering off. When this happens, the market usually needs a deeper reset before the next major leg to the upside. A pullback into the $70K–$75K zone looks not only possible but healthy, not just for Bitoin but the entrie crypto market. If i was a first time investor and this played out this level would be where I steadily start to invest slowly week by week across the major favorites like Ethereem, XRP, Litecoin, Solana, Cardano, Chainlink, etc This pullback area below 75k aligns with: • A major liquidity pocket that has not been tapped • The previous breakout zone needing a retest • An ideal discount region for larger institutions to reload • A level that would wipe out overleveraged longs and rebalance the crypto market The drop have been and will feel even more painful to longer term investors, especially for new buyers or late comers wo came in above these numbers, but this kind of correction is exactly what fuels the next macro wave or what we like to call the next BULL RUN. Once BTC finds support in the $70K–$75K range and reclaims that zone, the next bullish impulse opens up and that’s where we get the continuation toward the $150K macro target. The structure, liquidity map, and long-term momentum all support this trajectory. In short: Short-term: a deep corrective pullback. Mid-term: stabilization and accumulation. Long-term: the trajectory remains intact for a push toward $150K in the coming few months to couple years, just like that 2021 $100K call. Stay Ready!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by drobinsk
BTC 1W: preparing a reversal or just stretching the correction?Bitcoin trades in the 85,500–86,000 area, moving steadily toward the key weekly MA100 around 83,200 - the primary dynamic support of this cycle and the level where prior corrections have consistently formed bullish reactions. As long as price respects the lower boundary of the rising channel, BTC maintains a controlled corrective structure: liquidity is being taken below local lows, setting up the conditions for a rebound into the major 104–109K supply zone. This area remains the central mid-term target for recovery, aligning with the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci cluster, the upper boundary of the previous distribution range and the zone of prior large-scale selling. Fundamentally as of November 21, the market is shifting from euphoria into redistribution: ETF and institutional flows have slowed, large holders are taking profits, and a strong dollar alongside elevated real rates is pressuring risk assets. Network strength remains intact - hashrate near all-time highs and miners still expanding capacity - even though their margins are tightening. This is a typical late-stage cycle environment: short-term downside pressure with long-term trend strength preserved. As long as BTC has not yet touched the MA100, the base scenario remains a dip into 83K followed by a rebound toward 104–109K. A breakout above 110K restores bullish continuation, while a loss of 80K accelerates the move toward 70–75K and the weekly MA200. This correction is not the end of the cycle - it’s a cooling phase after an overheated expansion. Bitcoin does what it always does: terrifies everyone near MA100, then moves exactly when most have given up waiting.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by TotoshkaTrades
ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, PA Forecast, Setups Fri (Nov 21)Analyzing Today’s Sharp Market Decline The significant selloff observed today was not an arbitrary event. The day began with a robust rally following another impressive earnings report in the AI-chip sector, which propelled futures sharply upward and triggered a short squeeze in the Nasdaq. However, the release of a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report shifted the market's sentiment. While hiring showed signs of rebounding, the unemployment rate also ticked higher, undermining the prevailing narrative that the Federal Reserve would soon lower interest rates. This development served as a stark reminder of the ongoing restrictive monetary policy, coupled with slowing economic growth and exorbitant valuations in the tech sector. Major investment funds capitalized on the morning’s strength in AI and large-cap stocks as an opportunity to reduce their risk exposure. Additionally, systematic trend-followers faced compulsion to sell once the S&P 500 fell below critical support levels. The environment for high-beta assets, including cryptocurrencies, is already in a “reset” phase, which left little incentive for dip-buying at lower price points. As the E-mini S&P 500 futures broke through the previous day’s support levels, the situation escalated into a full liquidation. This perfect storm involved trapped long positions from the morning breakout, stop-loss orders falling into execution beneath yesterday’s lows, and mechanical selling, culminating in the largest intraday reversal since the spring. Market Outlook The current market sentiment is skewed bearish as the ES remains entrenched below the critical 6,660 to 6,700 range. The price is hovering near a significant demand zone established around the lows of the previous trading day and today’s New York session. While we can expect some upward bounces, these movements appear to be temporary rallies within an ongoing downtrend, rather than indicators of a potential new upward leg. Market Analysis: Is This the Beginning of a Downtrend or a Temporary Shakeout? In the recent developments within the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) on the daily timeframe, we’ve observed the formation of a distinct lower high following the recent all-time peak. This shift has seen prices breach the last identified higher-low area, establishing a new narrative. The sequence has transitioned from a higher high to a lower high, culminating in a movement into prior demand zones marked by increased volume, all while momentum appears to be rolling over. On the four-hour chart, the prevailing trend reflects a series of lower highs and lower lows. The recent selloff has further entrenched this trajectory into the discount zone, now signaling proximity to the next Fibonacci retracement target below. While momentum indicators have already dipped from overbought conditions, they have not yet reached deeply oversold thresholds, indicating potential for another leg downward following any short-term corrective bounce. From a broader perspective, the long-term trend remains positive; however, a short- to medium-term corrective phase appears to be in play. Today’s market dynamics suggest we may be in the midst of this corrective leg rather than witnessing the final downturn. As prices have recently entered a significant demand zone, a bounce lasting one to three sessions—or a period of sideways consolidation—seems likely before any potential further decline. In summary, while current conditions favor a move towards lower prices in the days ahead, the market likely anticipates a "lower after a bounce" scenario rather than an immediate and steep decline. Key resistance zones Resistance is written as bands, not single ticks. R1: 6,589–6,600 This band sits around the current Asia-session high and the underside of today’s New York low. It is the first lid above price. If rallies stall here, the tape stays heavy and favors another test of the lows. R2: 6,634–6,658 This is the main breakdown zone from today, centered around the New York afternoon high and the upper edge of the late-session range. As long as ES trades below this shelf, the short-term downtrend remains intact and every bounce is suspect. R3: 6,760.5–6,791.25 This band covers the New York morning low-to-high range and the origin of the big sell leg. If price ever retests this area and fails, it is a prime region for larger swing shorts. Only sustained trade and closes above this pocket would suggest the current corrective leg is ending. --- Key support zones S1: 6,575–6,552 This is the immediate floor combining the Asia-session low, New York afternoon low, and prior-day value low. It is where we are effectively trading now. Expect reactive bounces and stop-runs here, as both sides are active. S2: 6,525–6,509 This is the next downside magnet if S1 breaks cleanly. It aligns with a fib extension and 4-hour demand. A decisive move into this region would represent the next step down in the correction. S3: 6,430–6,418 Deeper extension and prior higher-timeframe demand. If the correction matures into a more serious pullback over several sessions, this pocket becomes a reasonable medium-term downside destination. A++ Setup 1 – Short from R2 supply (continuation short) Direction: Short Entry zone: 6,638–6,648 SL (hard stop): 6,678 TP1: 6,588 TP2: 6,552 TP3: 6,515 Invalidation (structure): If we get a 15m full-body close above 6,675, treat the short idea as invalid and stand aside; market is likely shifting into a squeeze toward 6,700+ instead of extending the down leg. --- A++ Setup 2 – Quick-reclaim long from S1 demand (counter-trend bounce) Direction: Long Entry logic: need a flush then reclaim Entry zone (after reclaim): 6,562–6,568 SL (hard stop): 6,538 TP1: 6,610 TP2: 6,638 TP3: 6,660 Invalidation (structure): If price breaks below 6,552 and 15m closes stay below 6,545 without a fast reclaim, the bounce idea is invalid; then you wait for the deeper S2 zone instead of forcing longs here. Good Luck !!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MyAlgoIndex
1