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Fundamental Analysis

ARM Holdings — reversal pattern signals growth potentialOn the ARM chart an inverted head and shoulders pattern is taking shape with price approaching the neckline around 144–145 and a confirmed breakout above this level could trigger an upward move toward 220 with extended targets at 310–330. In case of a pullback the 128 zone remains key support to preserve the bullish structure. Fundamentally ARM continues to strengthen its role in chip architecture while growing demand in artificial intelligence and mobile technologies drives institutional interest. As long as the pattern holds the bullish scenario stays in play.
NASDAQ:ARMLong
by InvestWorld_777
A Silent Giant in the Industrial Aluminum SectorReliance Steel & Aluminum: A Silent Giant in the Industrial Aluminum Sector By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades Aluminum is at the center of all attention. Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (Ticker: RS.US) has established itself as one of the largest metal service centers in North America, with a business model that goes far beyond steel. Despite what its name suggests, aluminum has become a key component of its portfolio, responding to the growing global demand for lightweight and durable materials. The company distributes aluminum in multiple forms—sheets, extrusions, and pipes—serving strategic industries such as aerospace, automotive, transportation, construction, energy, and defense. This positioning has allowed Reliance to benefit from the transition to electric vehicles, innovations in lighter aircraft, and infrastructure modernization, where aluminum is essential. In a context where aluminum prices have surged over 17% on the London Metal Exchange since April, and the U.S. “Midwest premium” has skyrocketed 177%, surpassing $0.70 per pound, companies like Reliance are directly benefiting. Its distribution capacity and adaptability give it an advantage over competitors focused on a single metal or region. In China, the 45-million-ton production cap in place since 2017 is forcing the country to become a net importer, adding pressure to international markets. Meanwhile, inventories in Shanghai have fallen by half since April, and stocks in Europe and North America are also low, creating bottlenecks across the supply chain. The combination of 50% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, rising demand, and historically low inventories has created the perfect storm. Furthermore, the projected deficit for 2026, as highlighted by Bank of America, reinforces the view that diversified metal companies with strong aluminum exposure are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. With over 300 locations in the U.S. and an international presence, Reliance is a key player in ensuring supply to critical sectors during times of shortage. In Europe, giants like Norsk Hydro (Norway) and ArcelorMittal (Luxembourg) play a fundamental role in aluminum and industrial metals production, though with a more integrated focus on extraction and primary processing. The difference is that Reliance functions as a distribution and service link, bringing the metal to end customers flexibly, making it a complementary model to European producers. Technical Analysis – Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (Ticker: RS.US) The company’s share price moved from highs of $346 at the end of July to close yesterday at $288.58. Since mid-2023, the most frequent trading range has been between $304.15 and $263.64. The Point of Control (POC) places the middle of the bell curve at the lower end of this range, around $275.69. The bearish crossover reflected since early August appears to be concentrating the price in an indecision zone, keeping the stock near the range midpoint. RSI and MACD indicators signal neutrality. According to the ActivTrades US Market Pulse, the U.S. market is in a neutral/mixed zone, suggesting a balanced market with the company showing stability in its pricing. If the market supports an upward move and breaks the range ceilings, the next targets could be $321.91 and $334.26, potentially establishing a bullish scenario attempting to test new highs. Conversely, if the stock loses value and breaks supports at $272.55 and $263.60, a retest of the year’s lows around $248.03 could occur. Market Barometer In short, Reliance Steel & Aluminum consolidates itself as a silent barometer in the industry and the global aluminum chain, combining distribution flexibility with a strong presence in strategic sectors. In an environment marked by tariffs, low inventories, and a projected 2026 deficit, the company stands out as a reliable indicator of market trends and a reference point for anticipating future movements in the metal, linking global price increases with the reality of factories, workshops, and airports that depend on this strategic resource. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
NYSE:RSLong
by ActivTrades
Using Amazon as an example to write about intrinsic valueThe beautiful thing about equities, is that we can determine what the stock should be worth based on the future cash flows the company generates. It is called intrinsic value and professional investors often use this calculation to help them make higher quality decisions. The primary method of calculation is called discount cash flow. When building a DCF model is is recommended to use Wall Streets estimates to keep an unbiased opinion. Understanding the concept of discount cash flow, is like understanding the calculations behind any technical indicator, the thing about intrinsic value is that it is a fundamental indication not just technical. Equities go up, because companies are generating cash flows. Unlike commodities, which are only valued based on the general consensus of voters. It was Benjamin Graham the father of value investing who said, in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term the market is a weighing machine. There is a fantastic book I read called The Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham I highly recommend giving it a read if your serious about making money in the market over the long term. Intrinsic value is the fundamental, true worth of an asset or business, as determined by an objective analysis of its financial performance and future cash flow potential. It is a crucial concept for investors, especially value investors, who use it to identify assets that are undervalued or overvalued by the market. Focusing on fundamentals helps investors avoid overpaying for assets and reduces the risk of permanent capital loss. If a stock's market price is significantly lower than its calculated intrinsic value, it may be undervalued and a good buying opportunity. The difference is often called a "margin of safety". Intrinsic value is based on an asset's long-term potential, encouraging a focus on sustainable growth and stability rather than short-term market noise. Now onto Amazon stock, according to my model the intrinsic value of Amazon is as of this writing $260 meaning that fundamentally it is still undervalued. Take this with a grain of salt because if you create a model using the discount cash flows of the company over the next 5 or 10 years you might get wildly different results. This is why it is essential to understand the calculation for yourself instead of just taking my word for it. This is a highly speculative calculation, it can also become relatively complicated. Lets compare two individuals performance over the course of their career, I would like to write about Dr. Al Brooks, often referred to as the king of price action by CME group, and Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors and richest men in the world. Al Brooks, the day traders net worth is about $750 million dollars over the course of his career in the market. Warren Buffett has a net worth of about $150 billion dollars. One is a trader, the other an investor. So where am I going with this? Everyone wants to get rich quick, everyone starts thinking they will be a trader. 90% of traders permanently lose their capital never to make it back and often times quitting participating in the market. The 10% of traders who are actually profitable, aren't making as much money as you would think, as per the comparison above. The average investor over the course of their lifetime will make 150x more money than the best traders. For me, I fell into the 90% category, trading didn't work for me, after reading The Intelligent Investor, the money starting coming into my account almost effortlessly. Dear reader, this article was written by me for my own entertainment. Please do not take anything I have written too literally, always do what works best for you and always remember, whatever your doing, you should be having fun. Cheers
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Capitalist_Zach
LiamTrading – XAUUSD: A New Trend Taking ShapeGold has entered a new phase, beginning a sharp correction following Chairman Powell’s announcement of a Fed rate cut. On the H1 chart, a bearish Dow structure is clearly forming, suggesting the potential for sustained downside in the medium term. Most buy-side liquidity has now been cleared, leaving limited scope for a strong recovery – aside from a brief FVG that appeared immediately after the news. Market sentiment indicates that activity during that phase carried little weight. The appearance of a gap highlights growing confidence among sellers in seizing control after the Fed’s statement. This decline could drive gold towards the 363x area, and potentially extend to the 361x region. A critical level to watch remains 3651, a strong support where price previously rebounded by more than 20 dollars immediately after the announcement. Trading plan for today: Sell 3656 – 3659, SL 3666, TP 3651 – 3646 – 3638 – 3634 – 3626 – 3615 Buy 3634 – 3632, SL 3628, TP 3640 – 3652 – 3660 Buy zone 3607 – 3604, SL 3600, TP 3616 – 3625 – 3638 – 3647 – 3660 This is my personal view on XAUUSD for today. Please use it as a reference for your own trading. If you find it useful, follow me for further updates and gold market scenarios.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LiamTradingFX
HINO📊 HINO (PSX) Analysis (One can also buy on current market price) 🔎 Fundamentals 🚌 Buses & Trucks: Orders surged 80% 🚀 💰 Undervalued Price → Attractive entry point for long-term investors 📈 Earnings Growth: EPS improved to 4.67 ✅ 🤝 MFTBC (Mitsubishi Fuso Truck & Bus Corp.) agreement with HINO → backed by a 100% publicly listed global player 🌍 📉 Technicals 📍 3 Accumulation Areas → Strong buying interest spotted 📊 Trendline Break (Daily) → Closed at 562 → ✅ Buy Signal 🔄 Support Bounce: Price moves in the 562–582 range → Ideal Buy Zone ⚡ If Support Breaks: Next attractive Buy Zone → 360–390 Note: (One can also buy on current market price)
PSX:HINOLong
by SmartMoney-AR
Gold: In a short-term downtrend after Powell's comments?GOLD: In a short-term downtrend after Powell's comments? Powell continues to make hawkish comments about the economy and the reasons for interest rate cuts. He repeatedly emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve (FED) and that its monetary policy is working well. These comments still support the strengthening of the US dollar and unless we face more manipulation, gold could begin the process of dissipating from this new bearish pattern. Gold has formed a rising wedge pattern, which often signals a bearish reversal. The price has already broken below the wedge, showing early signs of weakness. If sellers remain in control, the downside targets to watch are: $3,618 $3,586 $3,530 As long as Gold stays below the wedge, the bearish outlook remains valid. However, if the price climbs back inside the wedge and holds above $3,707, the bearish scenario could fail. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️ PS: Let's see what happens now
FX:XAUUSDShort
by KlejdiCuni
13
USD/HUF: A Contrarian View on a Historical TrendUSD/HUF "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often ryhmes." This is an idea based on personal analysis and is not financial advice. The content reflects my current market perspective on USD/HUF, which has been a challenging trade for me personally. Your own due diligence is essential. My analysis suggests that the Hungarian Forint's recent strength may be nearing a seasonal and technical reversal. A confluence of historical patterns, a contrarian market sentiment, and technical indicators point to a potential bottoming process for USD/HUF in the coming weeks. Analysis & Rationale Seasonality & Historical Context Seasonal Pattern: Historically, the period from the second half of September to the first half of October has often marked a significant low for USD/HUF. This pattern was particularly evident in years with similar price action, such as 2008, 2011, and 2021. Macro Correlation: Interestingly, these years were followed by major financial crises (2009 housing bubble, 2012 EU debt crisis, and the 2022 COVID-19 related market disruptions). While history doesn't repeat, it often "rhymes," and the current global economic backdrop warrants caution. Political Precedent: The price action from 2017 is also highly relevant. During his first term, President Trump's administration had a stated goal of decreasing the dollar's value, which created a similar environment to today's market. Market & Technical Breakdown Market Sentiment: A strong contrarian signal is the overwhelming consensus among local Hungarian financial outlets. They are widely praising the Forint's strength and predicting long-term gains against major currencies, which can often precede a reversal. Technical Indicators: While I primarily use price action, a look at key indicators supports a bullish reversal. The RSI, Stochastic, MACD, and Williams %R are all in a range indicating an oversold condition. Smart Money Concepts (SMC): From an SMC perspective, price has moved into a monthly Fair Value Gap (FVG) positioned beneath a short-term low (the blue gap on the chart). There is also a weekly FVG (the red gap) below it, which could be the ultimate target before a significant reversal. Trading Plan The current price action is that of a "falling knife." Given the upcoming FED interest rate decision, I would advise caution. I am personally waiting for Thurseday to consider adding to my existing position. While historical data suggests the ultimate low could be a few months away, a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy at these price levels is a reasonable approach in my opinion. "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."
Long
by Sneci
1
New all-time high in global financial liquidity1) The Fed has unveiled its new monetary policy trajectory, here are the key takeaways: - Federal funds rate cycle through the end of 2025: there should be a total of 3 rate cuts by year-end. - Update of macroeconomic projections: The Fed acknowledges the slowdown in the labor market and still expects inflation to normalize during 2026, allowing time to absorb the impact of tariffs. - Balance of power among the 12 voting FOMC members: 11 out of 12 voted for a 0.25% rate cut, with only Stephen Miran voting for a jumbo Fed cut. In the end, Jerome Powell’s Fed has thus enacted a genuine monetary pivot to account for the labor market slowdown, while remaining cautious about the upcoming normalization of inflation. The more accommodative monetary trajectory announced should provide support for risk assets in the stock market, but upcoming U.S. employment and inflation updates will still have a strong impact. 2) Global liquidity hits a new all-time high, a supportive factor for risk assets Correlation studies show that risk assets in the stock market are highly correlated with the trend in global liquidity, i.e., the sum of the money supplies of the world’s major economies. Simply put, when the underlying trend of global liquidity is bullish, the S&P 500 and bitcoin prices also follow a bullish trend, and vice versa. There are several ways to represent a country’s money supply, and the M2 monetary aggregate is recognized as the best measure of available liquidity within a state. Global M2 liquidity is calculated by aggregating the money supplies of major economies, notably the United States and China, converted into U.S. dollars (USD). The dollar’s evolution directly influences this measure: a strong dollar reduces global M2 in USD terms, while a weak dollar increases it, affecting capital flows and global financial conditions. While global M2 liquidity is decisive, the net credit capacity within the financial system also plays a major role. When this is added to global M2, you get global liquidity — and this has just reached a new all-time high, as shown in the chart attached to this article. This should therefore be a supportive factor for the stock market through year-end. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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SP:SPX
by Swissquote
My Journey to Building the Adaptive Opening EdgeMy Journey to Building the Adaptive Opening Edge Like many of you aspiring traders, I was once chasing shortcuts. I wanted to get rich quick, to find the easiest way out. Over 10 years ago, I first learned about trading through my mom. I got curious, started exploring, and went on a hunt for the “holy grail.” The history is always the same — I blew up account after account before I finally turned profitable. The Missing Puzzle I realized the key wasn’t some secret indicator or magic formula. It was me. I needed to work on my fundamentals, my psychology, and my discipline. At the same time, I felt there was a gap in the market — no tool truly fit the trading philosophy I was developing. I wasn’t looking for certainty; I wanted a way to stack probabilities and build expectancy. Building the Signal So I invested in myself. 📚 I spent hours in libraries. 💻 I learned coding and logic. 🧩 I started piecing together the type of tool I wished existed. That’s how the Adaptive Opening Edge was born. It wasn’t about predicting the future. It was about building a system that: Risks a fixed % per trade Avoids overnight risk entirely Is robust (not overfit, not curve-fitted) Focuses on expectancy, not win rate From Testing to Trading I backtested, forward tested, and finally went live. I fine-tuned the code, but never broke its logic to “force” more wins. I needed it to be durable — able to handle randomness without collapsing. For the first time in my trading career, I saw an equity curve I could trust. The Real Breakthrough The breakthrough wasn’t just the signal. It was the combination of: A robust tool (Adaptive Opening Edge) The discipline to follow rules without deviation The patience to let the law of large numbers play out Trading stopped being about outcome. It became about process. Losses stopped hurting — they were just part of the data. Wins stopped exciting me — they were simply the advance payments of my expectancy. Where I Am Today I no longer chase predictions. I don’t need the holy grail. I’ve built a signal that reflects the way I believe trading should be: Probability-driven Rules-based Consistent over the long run That’s why I share my trades live on YouTube — every entry, every stop, every exit, no filters. Final Note The Adaptive Opening Edge isn’t about being right 100% of the time. It’s about playing the same game the casinos play — exploiting a small, consistent edge over hundreds of hands. If you want to learn more about the signal, buzz me.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by nexxtrade
GOLD was clearly supported, but Powell stopped shortIn the trading session on September 17 in New York, the US financial market "spinned like a pinwheel" after the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and Chairman Jerome Powell's speech. The Dollar recovered after Mr. Powell's speech, causing gold to be sold off strongly. As of the time the article was completed (Thursday, September 18), the gold price was trading at 3,662 USD/oz. The Fed officially cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate band down to 4.00% - 4.25%, as expected. This is the first time the Fed has cut interest rates since December last year. This decision immediately caused the USD to plummet to a 4-year low against the euro, while spot gold prices jumped to a new record. However, after Powell's speech, the USD quickly recovered strongly, while gold fell from the peak due to profit-taking pressure. The US stock market also fluctuated violently: all three major indexes rose sharply for a moment and then quickly reversed. Powell emphasized that the Fed was in no hurry to ease further and this move was considered a “risk management cut”. In the statement after the meeting, the FOMC acknowledged that the US economy was “slowing”, employment was weakening, inflation was rising and the downside risks to the labor market were growing. However, the Fed still forecast two more 0.25% rate cuts this year, according to the “dotplot chart” tool showing the expectations of each official. New member Milan was the only one who opposed, wanting a sharp 0.5% cut. Powell said future decisions would be considered “on a meeting-by-meeting basis,” suggesting the Fed is moving cautiously rather than aggressively easing. Officials are also increasingly converging on the idea that the Trump administration’s trade and tariff policies will only have a temporary impact on inflation. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has not been able to surpass the 3,700 USD price mark, the profit-taking momentum has caused the gold price to drop sharply and very quickly, but with the current position, it still has all the conditions to increase in price. Specifically, the main trend is still stable with the price channel as the medium-term trend, and the support from EMA21 as the main support, followed by the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level as the current nearest support. On the other hand, in terms of momentum, the RSI has not yet signaled the possibility of a more significant downside correction, as the RSI is still operating in the overbought area and is mostly moving sideways, indicating that profit-taking in the market is limited, leading to limited downside momentum. A downward sloping RSI through the 80 level is the best signal for a more significant downside correction. During the day, if gold breaks above the 0.618% Fibonacci extension level again, it will be in a position to retest the $3,700 level, more so the $3,722 level once the original $3,700 level is broken. Finally, the general trend of gold price on the daily chart is bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows. Support: 3,645USD Resistance: 3,677 – 3,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3696 - 3694⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3700 →Take Profit 1 3688 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3682 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3616 - 3618⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3612 →Take Profit 1 3624 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3630
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Gold Price Outlook – Bearish Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $3,657 after a sharp pullback from its recent highs. The chart shows clear resistance around $3,665–$3,667, where repeated rejections have capped upside attempts. Price is now testing below intraday trendline support, signalling bearish momentum building up. A move back into the support zone at $3,650–$3,648 looks likely if sellers maintain control. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: $3,665 – $3,667 (near resistance rejection) Stop Loss: $3,668 (above resistance zone) Take Profit: $3,650 / $3,648 (support zone) Risk/Reward: ~1 : 5.23 🗝️ Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: $3,665 – $3,667 Support Zone: $3,650 – $3,648 🌐 Macro Background Gold remains volatile after the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut, which was seen as less dovish than markets expected. Chair Powell struck a cautious tone, noting limited support for deeper cuts, prompting a USD rebound and a pullback in gold from record highs near $3,707. While longer-term dovish expectations (further cuts in October and December) support bullion, short-term positioning suggests further profit-taking is likely. Any stronger US data (like jobless claims) could extend downside pressure. 📌 Trade Summary The setup favours a short entry near $3,665–$3,667, targeting the $3,650–$3,648 support zone. Momentum remains bearish below $3,668 resistance, though broader uptrend expectations remain intact as long as gold holds above $3,643. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ATFX_Global
World gold prices continuously reverseThe Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which began on Tuesday morning, will conclude on Wednesday afternoon (US time) with a statement and press conference by US Federal Reserve (FED) Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to cut the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points - the first since November last year. The new FED forecast may also show a slowdown in US economic growth and a rise in unemployment. At the press conference, Chairman Powell will have to answer many questions not only about the economic outlook and interest rates but also about the independence of the FED. Global stock markets generally rose slightly overnight, while US index futures forecast a mixed opening. In other developments, the Cyberspace Administration of China is said to have asked companies like Alibaba and ByteDance to cancel orders for Nvidia's RTX Pro 6000D chips - a line of chips designed to avoid restrictions on exporting AI technology to China. The move comes as the US and China have just announced progress in trade negotiations in Madrid (Spain).
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster