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Fundamental Analysis

Planning a long swing based on these confluencesHi Traders! In my opinion, GJ continues to be bullish. I posted a mind on Oct. 31st about how I thought GJ was in a retracement phase, and it seems to be trying to reverse out of that retracement. A few confluences that stand out to me are- an attempt to make a Invert. Head and Shoulder, and a bullish 4HR CHOCH. Now, I'm looking to take a long swing, but in order for me to do that I need my confluences to be lined up to make the best logical decision. My desired entry targets would be at 202 or 201.500. 201.500 would bring price to a 4HR OB/consolidation area that price broke out of on Friday, Nov. 7th. However, if price doesn't make it to my desired areas, I may wait for a break above 203.200 with a strong candle close (Higher TF). That could confirm the bullish 4HR CHOCH. I like to give GJ room to move, so if 203.200 is the case, my SL would potentially be just below 202/last higher low. This is all depending on how GJ moves. TP swing target 207-207.500 with taking profits in between. Leave a comment, and let me know your thoughts! *DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor. The ideas and trades I take on my page are for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm just showing you guys how I trade. Remember, trading of any kind involves risk. Your investments are solely your responsibility and not mine.*
Long
by thattradergirl
What are the chances that Bitcoin skyrockets from here?I am betting on Scenario B - see below - that is just my preference - DYOR If we define "Skyrocket" as a V-shaped recovery that blasts back to $110k+ within the next 7–14 days, the probability is statistically low (<15%). However, if we define it as a "violent bounce" starting from the $84k target we discussed, the probability jumps significantly. Based on the current market structure (Liquidity Vacuum + Macro Headwinds), here is the probability breakdown for the three main scenarios over the next 30 days. Scenario A: The "Immaculate V-Shape" (Skyrocket from Here) Probability: ~10-15% The Thesis: The $90k support holds, shorts get exhausted, and a surprise external catalyst (like a Fed pivot rumor or massive corporate buy) triggers a squeeze that ignores the technical damage. Why it's unlikely: The "Brick Wall" Overhead: Even if we bounce, there is a massive concentration of "stale supply" (people waiting to break even) at $96,000 and $106,000. These act as gravity. No Fuel: As we saw in the derivatives data, Open Interest is low. There are no massive short positions to squeeze. You can't have a "short squeeze" without shorts. Scenario B: The "Flush & Launch" (The Air Pocket Play) Probability: ~60% (Most Likely) The Thesis: The market is too heavy to go up, but too bullish long-term to crash. Price capitulates through $90k, triggering the stop-loss cascade. It hits the $83,800 – $84,500 zone (Miner Breakeven + 0.382 Fib). This is the "Skyrocket" moment: The massive stablecoin liquidity on the sidelines (SSR ratio) steps in all at once. The Outcome: A violent wick down, followed by a $10k+ candle upward in days. This is the classic "V-Bottom" that leaves hesitation buyers behind. Scenario C: The "Crypto Winter" (Breakdown) Probability: ~25% The Thesis: The "Miner Wall" at $84k fails due to macro pressure (e.g., inflation spikes, Fed officially delays cuts to 2026). The Outcome: We grind down to the Realized Price (~$62k) over 3-4 months. No skyrocket; just a slow bleed.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by undersun
Is BTC supply still tightening or is the thesis unravelling?This is one of the most complex moments for the "supply squeeze" narrative in recent years. The short answer is that the structural supply tightening is real (the math hasn't changed), but the market thesis is temporarily unraveling because a "supply squeeze" requires steady demand to function—and demand has collapsed. As of late 2025, you are seeing a clash between mechanical scarcity (which is working) and market liquidity (which is broken). Here is the breakdown of why the thesis feels like it is dying, versus what is actually happening under the hood. 1. Why the Thesis Feels Like It's Unraveling (The "Fake" Supply) The "Supply Squeeze" thesis relies on the idea that because there are fewer coins, price must go up. That logic fails when forced sellers enter the room. Currently, supply is flooding the market from three specific sources that don't care about the "long-term squeeze." Miner Capitulation: This is the big one. Post-halving (April 2024), mining profitability has been razor-thin. In late 2025, we are seeing signs of "miner capitulation"—where miners are forced to sell their treasury stacks just to pay electricity bills or upgrade rigs. They are price-insensitive sellers; they sell because they have to. The "Paper" Supply (Derivatives): While spot Bitcoin is scarce, paper Bitcoin (futures, options) is abundant. Traders have been hedging downside risk aggressively (buying puts), which forces market makers to short Bitcoin to hedge themselves. This creates "synthetic supply" that suppresses the price even if no physical coins are moving. ETF Outflows: The ETFs were the primary "demand sponge" earlier in the cycle. In late 2025, seeing consecutive days/weeks of outflows turns that sponge into a firehose. When ETFs sell, they return coins to the market, effectively undoing the "lock-up" effect we cheered for in 2024. 2. Why the Supply Squeeze is Still Structurally Intact If you look at the on-chain data, the "Unraveling" is mostly a price phenomenon, not a supply phenomenon. The core mechanics of the squeeze are actually tighter than ever. The US Strategic Reserve (The Wildcard): A massive shift occurred in March 2025 with the executive order establishing a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." This effectively took the US Government's massive stash (~200,000+ BTC) off the table as a potential seller. In previous years, the fear of a US Gov "dump" was constant. That supply shock is now gone, legally locked up. "Ancient Supply" is Growing: Long-term holders (coins that haven't moved in 1+ years) are largely refusing to sell at these levels. The "panic" is coming almost exclusively from Short-Term Holders (retail who bought in 2024/2025) and Miners. The "Diamond Hands" cohort is still absorbing supply, just not fast enough to counter the panic. Mt. Gox Kicked the Can: The feared Mt. Gox repayment distribution was delayed again to October 2026. While the market hates the uncertainty, the reality is that those billions of dollars in Bitcoin did not hit the market in 2025 as feared (Coming Oct 2026). 3. The Verdict: Demand Shock > Supply Squeeze The supply squeeze thesis isn't wrong; it's just dormant. A supply squeeze is like a dry forest. It is perfectly primed for a massive fire (price explosion), but it still needs a spark (demand). Right now, macroeconomics (rates, liquidity vacuum) have stomped out the spark. If demand returns: The squeeze will be violent and immediate, because the available float on exchanges is at multi-year lows. If demand stays dead: The "tight supply" acts as a floor, preventing a total collapse to zero, but it cannot force the price up on its own. Summary: Bullish "Squeeze" Factors Halving: Daily issuance is roughly 450 BTC (historic low). US Gov: ~200k BTC locked in Strategic Reserve. Exchanges: Balances are still trending down long-term. Bearish "Unraveling" Factors *Miners: Forced selling to cover OpEx/CapEx. *ETFs: Net outflows returning coins to market. Macro: High rates/strong dollar killing risk appetite. The thesis hasn't unraveled, but it has been overpowered. ****************Is the "miner capitulation" phase nearing its End?******************* The Hash Ribbon indicator tracks two moving averages of Bitcoin's hash rate (30-day and 60-day). What just happened: The 30-day moving average has recently crossed back above the 60-day moving average. What this means: The "Capitulation" phase—where miners are turning off machines en masse—has technically finished. We have entered the "Recovery" zone. The "Buy" Signal: In this specific indicator, the formal "Buy" signal (often a blue dot on charts) flashes only when price momentum turns positive after this crossover. We have the crossover, but the market is still waiting for the price momentum confirmation. Why this matters for your "Supply Squeeze" thesis This confirms the mechanical "squeeze" is trying to work. The fact that hashrate is recovering despite the price being down ~25% from the highs (from ~$126k to ~$95k) suggests that the weak miners have already been flushed out. The remaining miners are stronger and less likely to dump coins at these levels. The Catch: While the signal is bullish, the reality is that miner margins are still brutal. Hashprice (Miner Revenue): is stuck near historical lows (~$50–$60 per PH/s). The Risk: If price takes another leg down (below $90k), we could trigger a double capitulation—a rare but disastrous event where the "Recovery" fails and miners start shutting down again. Summary The "unraveling" you feel is the price dropping, but the Hash Ribbons confirm the structural supply shock is intact. The weak hands (miners) have largely sold. The "Sell Pressure" form this group is exhausted. **************What about exchange liquidity (order books) - is there enough buy wall at $90k to catch the falling knife?************** This is a classic "good news, bad news" situation on the order books. I checked the liquidity depth for Binance and Coinbase as of late November 2025. The short answer is: No, the $90k buy wall is likely not strong enough to catch a serious "falling knife" on its own. While there is a wall there, it is surprisingly thin. If we get another wave of panic selling, $90k looks less like a concrete floor and more like a speed bump. 1. The "Thin" Wall at $90k The Data: Market depth (the amount of capital waiting to buy within 1% of the current price) has collapsed by roughly 30% since October. What we see: There are buy orders clustered at $90,000, but they are sporadic. In a high-volatility flush, these orders would likely get filled (eaten up) in minutes. The "Spoofing" Risk: Large limit orders at round numbers like $90k are often "pulled" by market makers right before the price hits them. The fact that the wall isn't backed by deep, laddered support below it makes it fragile. 2. The "Air Pocket" Below $90k This is the most dangerous part of the current setup. If $90k breaks decisively, there is very little structural support immediately below it. The Vacuum: There is a liquidity "air pocket" between $90k and ~$84k. Why this happens: Traders are terrified of catching the knife, so they have moved their bids much lower. The Next Real Floor: The first massive, institutional-grade buy zone doesn't appear until $83,000 – $84,000. This aligns with the "Miner Breakeven" logic—at $84k, valuations become undeniable for long-term value buyers. 3. The Miner Problem (Revisited) Remember the "Miner Capitulation" recovery we discussed? Miner Breakeven: The estimated production cost for one Bitcoin is currently around $94,000. The Squeeze: With price currently hovering near/below $90k, miners are technically losing money on every block. They cannot afford to step in and buy at $90k to support the price; they are too busy trying to survive. This removes a key "natural buyer" from the $90k defense line. Verdict Don't trust the $90k support blindly. The market is currently playing a game of "Chicken." Buyers are on strike until they see if $90k holds, but because they are on strike, $90k is less likely to hold. Next Step: Since the spot market walls are thin, the real price direction often comes from the derivatives market (Futures/Options). *******Is a short squeeze in the cards?*************** You are hoping for a "Short Squeeze" to launch the price back up, but the derivatives data does not support that right now. I checked the Funding Rates and Long/Short ratios as of late November 2025, and the market setup is actually the opposite of what you want for a squeeze. 1. Funding Rates: The "Reset" (Not a Trap) For a massive short squeeze to happen, we need deeply negative funding rates (meaning shorts are paying longs to keep positions open because everyone is betting down). Current Reality: Funding rates are flat to slightly positive (~0.005% to 0.009% on Binance/Bybit). What this means: Traders are not aggressively shorting this level. They are simply not buying. The market isn't crowded with shorts waiting to get wrecked; it is crowded with fearful longs who are slowly bleeding out. The implication: There is no "fuel" for a squeeze. If price goes up, there aren't enough leveraged shorts to panic-buy and drive the price higher. 2. The Long/Short Ratio: Bulls are the Ones Trapped The ratio is currently skewing Long, which is bearish. Retail is Long: On many exchanges, the Long/Short ratio is above 1.5 (meaning more retail traders are betting on a bounce than betting on a dump). Smart Money is Short/Neutral: Large accounts are holding shorts or staying in cash. The Danger: When Retail is long and price is dropping, the "squeeze" that happens is a Long Squeeze (liquidation cascade), where longs are forced to sell, driving the price down further to that $84k level we discussed. 3. Open Interest (OI) has Collapsed Open Interest is the total value of active bets in the casino. The Data: OI has dropped significantly (down billions since the October highs). Interpretation: The gamblers have largely left the table. The "Unravelling" you asked about earlier is partly this—leverage leaving the system. We are moving back to a "Spot Driven" market, where real buying (not leverage) is required to move price. The Verdict There is no "Short Squeeze" savior coming at $90k. The market is currently in a "Long Squeeze" dynamic. Traders trying to catch the bottom are providing the liquidity for bigger players to exit. Strategic Implication: The market is waiting for a Spot Buyer (like a Sovereign Wealth Fund, corporation, or massive ETF inflow) to step in. Derivatives traders are currently too scared to take the lead. Next Step: Since the "Squeeze" is off the table and we are looking for "Spot Demand." ********Why would their be a squeeze down?*************** This is one of the most counter-intuitive mechanics in crypto: Low Open Interest (OI) often makes the market more dangerous, not less. You are assuming that because the "casino is empty" (low OI), there is nobody left to squeeze. The reality is that while the explosion size might be smaller, the fragility of the market is much higher. Here is why a "Squeeze Down" (Long Squeeze) is actually a prime risk right now, even with collapsed OI. 1. The "Empty Room" Problem (Liquidity Vacuum) When Open Interest collapses, it usually means Market Makers and institutional players have pulled back. They remove their massive limit orders (the "Buy Walls") from the order book. High OI Market: To drop the price by $1,000, you might need to sell $500 million worth of Bitcoin because there are so many active orders absorbing the selling. Low OI Market (Now): Because the order book is thin, selling just $50 million might drop the price by that same $1,000. The Risk: In this environment, a relatively small panic sell triggers a disproportionately large price crash. The "cushion" is gone. 2. The "Concentrated Pain" Ratio The total amount of leverage is down, but the ratio of who is holding it matters more. Who left? The smart money (Hedge Funds, Market Makers) has largely exited or gone flat. Who stayed? The "Stubborn Longs." These are typically retail traders or early bulls who refuse to sell. The Setup: The remaining OI is heavily skewed toward Longs. Even if there are fewer of them, (below the $88k region) their forced selling (liquidations) hits that "Air Pocket" we discussed. Because there are no buyers (liquidity vacuum), the price falls rapidly to find the next willing buyer. Here is the completion of why a "Low OI Squeeze" is a legitimate threat: 2. The "Concentrated Pain" Ratio (Continued) The Trap: The remaining OI is currently skewed Long. Even if the total dollars at risk are lower than usual, the people still in the market are those betting on a bounce. The Mechanic: If Bitcoin drops below $90k, these "stubborn longs" are forced to sell (either by margin calls or panic). Because the "smart money" (who usually provide buy walls) has left the room, these forced sells hit a thin order book. Result: A small amount of selling creates a large price drop. It’s like a crowded theater (the longs) trying to exit through a single small door (the thin liquidity). 3. The "Domino Effect" of Stop Losses In a low OI environment, Stop Losses become the dominant force. Clustered Stops: Traders tend to put their "sell if I'm wrong" orders at obvious levels—right now, heavily clustered just below $90,000 and $88,500. The Cascade: In a high-liquidity market, market makers can absorb these stops. In a low-liquidity market (now), triggering the first cluster of stops ($90k) creates a sell-off that pushes the price down to the next cluster ($88.5k), which triggers those stops, pushing price lower. No Brakes: Without high Open Interest on the Short side, there are no Short Sellers taking profit (buying back) to slow the fall. The drop just keeps going until it hits a hard valuation floor (like the $84k miner level). Summary: Why "Boring" is Dangerous You essentially have a market that is fragile, not stable. High OI = A tug-of-war between giants. Hard to move price, but violent when it snaps. Low OI (Current) = A leaf in the wind. It takes very little volume to push the price around significantly because nobody is there to stop it. The bottom line: We aren't at risk of a massive "Short Squeeze" (up) because there are no shorts to squeeze. We are at risk of a "Liquidity Cascade" (down) because there are no buyers to catch the falling rocks. ***$84k is the hard floor for miners and liquidity***** This is the final nail in the coffin for the "immediate bottom" thesis. I pulled the MVRV Z-Score data for November 20, 2025, and the result is dangerously neutral. 1. The Number: 1.28 (Neutral) The current MVRV Z-Score is 1.28. What this means: We are in "No Man's Land." Oversold (Buy Zone): Historically, Bitcoin is "oversold" (a cyclical bottom) only when the Z-Score drops below 0.1 (the Green Zone). Overbought (Sell Zone): Tops happen when it shoots above 7.0 (the Red Zone). 2. Why "Neutral" is Dangerous Right Now Being at 1.28 when the price is falling is actually worse than being at -0.5. If we were at -0.5: You could confidently buy because the math says "Bitcoin is trading below its fair value." At 1.28: Bitcoin is still trading above its fair value (Realized Price). This means there is no "mathematical gravity" forcing the price back up yet. The market has room to fall further without becoming statistically irrational. 3. The "Real" Floor (Realized Price) The MVRV Z-Score tracks the gap between the Price ($91,600) and the Realized Price (the average cost basis of all coins). Implied Downside: For the Z-Score to hit 0 (the true "Generational Bottom"), the price would need to drop to meet the Realized Price. Where is that? Based on current data, the Realized Price is trending around $60,000 – $62,000. The Gap: The difference between current price ($91k) and the hard valuation floor ($62k) is the "Air Pocket" where liquidity cascades happen. Summary Verdict The MVRV Z-Score confirms that we are not yet oversold. The market has flushed out the leverage (OI), but it hasn't flushed out the valuation premium yet. We are currently in a "fair value correction," not a "panic bottom." *********What about the stablecoin supply ratio (SSR)?************* This is the most optimistic signal we have found so far. I analyzed the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) and the liquidity situation for late November 2025. The data suggests that the "Dry Powder" is absolutely there. The buyers haven't run out of money; they are just refusing to spend it yet. Here is the breakdown of the "Sideline Cash" situation. 1. The SSR Signal: Deeply Bullish (Buying Power is at ATH) The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) measures the ratio of the Bitcoin Supply against the supply of Stablecoins. The Signal: The SSR is currently at historical lows. What this means: The purchasing power of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin’s market cap is higher than it has been in years. Why? Bitcoin’s price dropped (lowering the numerator), but the supply of Stablecoins (USDT, USDC) has actually grown to record highs (over $300 Billion total market cap). Translation: There is enough "crypto-native cash" sitting on exchanges right now to buy a massive chunk of the Bitcoin supply. The ammo is loaded in the gun; the trigger just hasn't been pulled. 2. The "GENIUS Act" Effect (Why the Cash is Stuck) You might be wondering: "If there is so much cash, why isn't it buying?" The answer lies in the "GENIUS Act" (passed July 2025). The Shift: This legislation finally regulated stablecoins in the US, making them "safe" for institutional treasuries to hold. The Consequence: In previous cycles, idle stablecoins were "hot money" that burned a hole in traders' pockets—they felt unsafe holding USDT, so they panic-bought BTC. Now: Institutions are comfortable parking billions in regulated USDC/USDT yielding 4-5% (via DeFi or Treasuries). They are no longer forced to buy Bitcoin to escape stablecoin risk. They can afford to be patient. 3. Exchange Flows: The "Dam" is Full I checked the net flow of stablecoins to exchanges for November. The Trend: We are seeing Net Inflows (positive). Interpretation: Investors are not cashing out to fiat (USD banks). They are moving stablecoins onto exchanges (Binance, Coinbase), which is historically the step right before a massive purchase. The Stand-Off: These large wallets are sitting on the bid at $84,000 (the Miner Floor we discussed). They know the miners are desperate, so they are waiting for the miners to dump into their limit orders. Summary Verdict The "Dry Powder" thesis is the strongest bullish factor you have. Liquidity: Abundant. Positioning: On exchanges (ready to deploy). Sentiment: Patient (not panicking). The market is like a dry forest (low float) with a massive pile of gasoline sitting next to it (record stablecoin liquidity). It is just waiting for a match. Final Strategic View: You have a market with tight supply (Hash Ribbons recovery), fragile liquidity (Low Open Interest), but massive purchasing power (Low SSR) waiting at lower levels. This is a recipe for a "V-Shape" reversal: a sharp crash to $84k that gets bought up instantly. ****EXECUTIVE SUMMARY***** The "Supply Squeeze" thesis is not dead, but it is dormant. The market is currently in a "Liquidity Vacuum"—structurally tight supply met with fragile demand. Here is your battle plan for the coming weeks of November/December 2025. Executive Summary: The "Air Pocket" Protocol 1. The Core Thesis Status: Structurally Bullish, Technically Fragile. The Narrative: The "Supply Squeeze" (Halving + US Strategic Reserve lock-up) is real, but it has been overpowered by Miner Capitulation and a Demand Strike. The Danger: We are currently falling through a liquidity "Air Pocket" between $90k and $84k. 2. The "V-Shape" Trigger Event The likely scenario is not a slow grind up, but a sharp flush down followed by an immediate recovery.The Catalyst: Price breaks $90k $\rightarrow$ Triggers clustered Stop Losses $\rightarrow$ Longs get liquidated.The Bottom: Price hits $84,000 (Miner Breakeven + Institutional Buy Wall).The Reversal: The massive Stablecoin "Dry Powder" (SSR) finally deploys at this value level, creating a V-shape bounce. 3. Strategic Action Plan Immediate Action: Do not trust the $90k support level. It is a "fake floor" with no liquidity backing. The "Buy Zone": Set limit bids laddered in the $83,500 – $85,500 range. This is where the "Smart Money" is waiting. The Invalidations: Bull Case: If Price reclaims $96k on high volume, the correction is over (Demand returned early). Bear Case: If Price breaks $82k, the "Miner Wall" has failed, and we risk a drop to the Realized Price ($62k). Final Thought: The market is playing a game of Chicken. The institutions (Stablecoins) are staring down the Miners. The institutions will win, but they will likely force the price down to their preferred entry ($84k) before they step in. Patience is your edge
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by undersun
Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) —AI-Driven Spine Ecosystem Scaling FastCompany Overview: Alphatec NASDAQ:ATEC builds advanced spinal fusion solutions, giving investors leverage to minimally invasive & outpatient spine surgery within a $15B market. Key Catalysts: Surgeon Network Flywheel: Active users +26% YoY in Q3’25 to 700+, boosting procedures, share gains, and platform lock-in. Valence Navigation (2026): AI-driven guidance aimed at higher precision and faster workflows—key to robotic & ASC adoption. Operating Leverage: 2025 EBITDA guidance: $83M; gross margin: 68.8%—clearer path to sustained profitability and scale. Why It Matters: Expanding surgeon base → recurring implant/biologics pull-through AI + navigation closes tech gaps vs. legacy platforms Outpatient shift accelerates procedure volumes and economics Investment Outlook: Bullish above: $18.00–$18.50 Target: $32.00–$33.00 — supported by network effects, AI navigation rollout, and margin expansion. 📌 ATEC — building the AI-native spine stack with accelerating adoption and improving unit economics.
NASDAQ:ATECLong
by Richtv_official
XRP (CRYPTO: $XRP) Tests the Critical $2 Support Zone CRYPTOCAP:XRP sits at a pivotal moment as price hovers just above the $2 support zone while multiple ETF launches arrive this week. XRP trades near $2.11, down over 12% this month, reflecting fading momentum across the broader crypto market. Traders now watch whether fresh institutional inflows can stabilize price or whether market weakness will override the optimism. Franklin Templeton launches its EZRP ETF on November 18, followed by Bitwise on November 20. Early signals from Canary Capital’s ETF—recording $58 million in first-day volume—suggest appetite exists, but analysts warn outcomes vary widely. Some ETF launches bring sustained bullish momentum; others produce short-lived volatility or no major reaction. Much depends on liquidity, risk sentiment, and macro conditions surrounding crypto. On-chain metrics also reflect this tension. Glassnode’s NUPL indicator shows long-term holders shifting from belief into anxiety. Historically, such transitions often precede major directional moves. Whether this marks a bottoming process or signals deeper caution remains a central question for traders. Technically, XRP’s structure weakened after breaking below its ascending trendline. The $2 level now acts as the most important support of the cycle. A break beneath it risks acceleration toward $1.5, the next visible demand zone. If support holds, buyers could push toward $2.6, followed by a retest of the former trendline and possibly the $3.6 highs. Outlook: ETF activity introduces opportunity, but not confirmation. XRP’s next move will likely depend on how price reacts to $2 as institutional inflows meet a cooling market.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
NONFARM returns after many days of closure1. Trendline Descending trendline (upper): Strong dynamic resistance, price is repeatedly rejected → main trend remains bearish. Ascending trendline (lower): Dynamic support, but has just been broken downward → buying pressure is weakening. 2. Key Support Levels 3,926 – 3,969 (Fibo 0.5–0.618): Strong confluence zone, the main target if the ascending trendline breaks. 3,891 (Fibo extension 1.0): Deep support, potential area for a short-term bottom. 3. Key Resistance Levels 4,135 – 4,155 (Fibo 0.5 + supply): Strongest resistance, price faced strong rejection here. 4,192 – 4,200 (Fibo 0.618): Higher resistance, aligned with the descending trendline → strong selling confluence. Trade Ideas BUY GOLD : 3948 – 3950 Stoploss: 3938 Take Profit: 100–300–500 pips SELL GOLD : 4148 – 4150 Stoploss: 4160 Take Profit: 100–300–500 pips
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AstronautPioneer
US500: Strong Reversal Zone Holding | Potential Rally AheadUS500 – Strong Reversal Zone Holding | Potential Rally Ahead US500 has once again reacted strongly from the major support zone marked on the chart — an area that has held multiple times in the past. Buyers stepped in aggressively, preventing further downside and maintaining the broader bullish structure. After forming a broadening wedge pattern followed by a sharp decline, price has stabilized and is now showing early signs of a potential bullish reversal. If momentum continues building, the next upside targets are: 6,800 6,870 6,985 (major target) You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by KlejdiCuni
6
BTC Playbook: Floors Defended, 93.8k Is the Gate__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ Bitcoin is stabilizing after a swift drawdown, still trading beneath stacked HTF resistances while buyers defend key floors. The structure is corrective with risk-off macro leadership, so rallies face supply unless we reclaim a major pivot. Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral drift with sell-the-rip behavior until a clean reclaim above 93,813 resets the tone. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF): 93,813 (2D pivot) / 95,000–96,000 / 97,000–98,000 - Supports (HTF): 91,500–90,500 (12H/1D floors) / 89,500 (2D pivot low) / 88,517–88,534 (2H/4H cluster) Volumes: Moderate on 1D; bursts of very high volume recently on 12H/4H around S/R are acting as catalysts. Multi-timeframe signals: 12H/6H/4H/2H remain Down while 1D is Up; bias stays tactical until 12H stabilizes, and 93,813 is the gate to shift momentum. Harvest zones: 91,500 (Cluster A) / 88,517–88,534 (Cluster B) — prime dip-buy belts for inverse pyramiding with confirmation on ≥2H. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator context: NEUTRE VENTE, confirming the corrective tone; treat dip-buys as tactical and demand stronger confirmation than usual. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant trend is corrective; adopt a tactical stance, buying defended HTF floors with confirmation and fading weak bounces into resistance. Global bias: Neutral Sell until 93,813 is reclaimed and held; invalidation of the dip-buy thesis if 88,500 breaks on a sustained close. Opportunities: - Buy: 90,456–91,496 retest with a ≥2H bullish reversal; target 93,813 then 95–96k. - Breakout: 12H/1D break-and-hold above 93,813 opens 95–96k then 97–98k. - Tactical sell: Fade rejections at 93,813 or 95–96k if volume expands and MTF trend stays Down. Risk zones / invalidations: A daily/12H close below 90,456 risks a slide into 89,500 then 88,5k; failure at 88,5k exposes lower ladders. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Nvidia beat lifted AI equities, but crypto bounce lagged; dollar strength capped risk appetite. - Fed tone mixed; December cut odds priced lower, keeping near-term liquidity tighter. - US spot ETF 7-day trend negative (Score F −6), muting long follow-through despite occasional positive daily prints. Harvest Plan (Inverse Pyramid): - Palier 1 (12.5%): 91,500 (Cluster A) + reversal ≥2H → entry - Palier 2 (+12.5%): 86,000–87,800 (-4/-6% below Palier 1) (Cluster B included) → reinforcement - TP: 50% at +12–18% from PMP → recycle cash - Runner: hold if break & hold first R HTF (93,813) - Invalidation: < HTF Pivot Low (89,500) or 96h no momentum - Hedge (1x): Short first R HTF on rejection + bearish trend → neutralize below R __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs are mixed: 1D stabilizing upward while 12H/6H/4H/2H remain in a controlled downtrend, keeping upside attempts contained by 93,813. 12H/6H/4H/2H/1H/30m: Downtrend with lower highs under 92–94k; best-quality demand sits at 88,517–88,534, with tactical support at 90,456–91,496 for reactive bounces. 1D/2D: 1D Up vs. 2D range; 2D Pivot Low at 89,500 anchors the mid-belt, while 2D Pivot High at 93,813 caps rallies; a decisive reclaim above 93,813 would align HTFs and release upside toward 95–98k. Confluences/divergences: ISPD DIV shows tactical buy context on dips, but Risk On / Risk Off Indicator is NEUTRE VENTE; respect HTF floors, demand ≥2H–1D confirmation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro risk is still in charge, with tighter rate-cut odds and a firm dollar weighing on crypto while ETFs/institutional bids help cushion extremes. Macro events: Nvidia’s blowout earnings fueled AI equities; crypto lagged as the dollar firmed and the Fed’s mixed tone reduced near-term cut odds; BOJ normalization watch adds global rates volatility. Bitcoin analysis: Structure printed 7-month lows; sellers defend 100k. Reclaiming 93,813 first, then 100k, is needed to reset trend toward the mid/high 90ks. On-chain data: Weak spot demand, put-leaning options, falling OI; active-investor realized price near ~88.6k aligns with Cluster B (88,5k), bolstering demand quality there. Expected impact: Macro tilt tempers breakouts; dip-buys at HTF floors remain viable if confirmed, with 93,813 as the main trigger to shift to offense. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is in a corrective regime with tactical bids at HTF floors and strong caps overhead. - Trend is neutral-to-bearish until 93,813 is reclaimed; range-to-down behavior favors confirmation-based entries. - Highest-probability setup: buy confirmed reversals at 90,456–91,496 or 88,517–88,534, take profits into 93,813/95–96k, keep a runner only if 93,813 turns to support. - Macro factor to watch: negative 7-day ETF trend and a firm USD dampen risk-on impulses. Trade like a patient tactician: wait for clean confirmations at the floors and respect 93,813 as the gatekeeper.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali
PRE-NY CONDITIONS Dollar is pressing into a major cross-asset high, recognized across FX, yields, and risk assets. London kept DXY inside a tight structure with no clean breakout, which turns this level into stop-time: the point where liquidity pauses and the market decides whether the move extends or fades. Front-end yields remain firm, anchoring the Dollar’s support. The 10-year is indecisive, offering no confirmation and keeping the curve without a clear macro signal. ES holds its overnight gap on Nvidia strength, but volatility near 21 keeps risk fragile. Gold remains neutral, reflecting a balanced but uncertain safety tone into the U.S. session. DXY: Testing a major high; range-bound after London; structure stretched but supported by 2Y strength. US10Y: Indecisive daily structure; long end is not confirming Dollar strength; macro tone remains unclear. US2Y: Firm short-end repricing; maintains policy pressure and supports Dollar tone. ES: Holding gap; risk appetite supported but shallow; volatility still limiting follow-through. Gold: Neutral safety tone; neither attracting nor rejecting flows; reflects cross-asset indecision. VIX: Near 21; elevated volatility keeps conditions reactive and reduces trend reliability. Cross-asset alignment remains mixed. The Dollar is firm, but only the front end confirms it. Long-end yields hesitate. ES shows controlled appetite, but volatility denies conviction. Gold confirms the indecision. Liquidity conditions lean cautious, shaped more by bond market signals than by clean macro drivers. Pillar Focus: PEM — Confirmation Entries Today's environment aligns with PEM logic. A stretched Dollar at a major level, split yields, and elevated volatility mean operators should rely on confirmation-based triggers, shorter engagements, and strict timing. High-frequency windows (NY open → 10:00 → London fix) carry more clarity than directional assumptions. Follow higher-timeframe direction Ignore noise from earlier sessions Wait for structure + flow alignment Act only on confirmation Summary: NY opens into a cautious environment defined by a stretched Dollar, mixed yields, and elevated volatility — a clear PEM day. — CORE5DAN Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
TVC:DXY
by CORE5DAN
EURUSD Short Setup if Key Level BreaksIf the EURUSD manages to break below the 1.15243 level, a potential short opportunity may develop around 1.15273. However, this setup is not confirmed yet, and the key element here is patience and proper validation. For this scenario to become valid, the market must first close a 15-minute candle below 1.15243. Such a close would indicate that the price has successfully broken through the level and is showing signs of rejection from the 15-minute orderblock, suggesting that sellers are stepping in with intention. This type of confirmation is essential because it filters out false breaks and ensures that the market is truly shifting momentum. If this rejection is validated, then the retest of 1.15273 could provide a precise and clean entry for short setups, with structure and liquidity alignment supporting the move. Until that break and close happen, the level remains a potential reaction point rather than a confirmed bearish continuation signal. As always, waiting for clear confirmation helps avoid entering the market prematurely, especially during periods where liquidity sweeps are common.
Short
by Mr_Liquidity1
The timing for bullish entry has been precisely identified!Yesterday, the market experienced significant volatility, with gold prices surging to around 4132, a gain of 1.6%. However, as the US dollar index continued its upward trend and reached a near two-week high, coupled with hawkish signals from the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, market sentiment was severely dampened. Gold prices gave back all of the day's gains, ultimately closing only slightly higher at around 4077. Currently, investors' focus has completely shifted to the upcoming US September non-farm payroll report, hoping to find clear clues about future monetary policy and a new direction for gold. From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, Friday's large bearish candlestick broke through key moving averages, setting the tone for a volatile week. Currently, the 5-day moving average area of $4120-$4130 has become a strong resistance level. If gold prices continue to be constrained by this level, the downside risk will significantly increase. The key support level is around $4050-$4030. If this level is effectively broken, it will confirm the continuation of the short-term correction trend, and gold prices may further test the important psychological level of $4000. However, the current price is still stable above the Bollinger Band's middle line, and the daily chart shows consecutive positive days, indicating that there is still some resilience in the market, and the bulls have not completely given up. Before the release of the key US non-farm payroll data, gold prices are expected to be trapped in a range-bound trading pattern. The subsequent upside potential depends on whether it can successfully break through the $4200 resistance level, while a deeper decline would require new negative fundamental factors to drive it.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Daniel_PrimeFX
Market Structure 101: Navigating Price ActionMost traders jump directly into indicators, oscillators, or patterns. Yet every chart has a deeper foundation that determines direction long before any tool is applied. Market structure is that foundation. When you understand how price forms highs, lows, and transitions between them, you stop reacting to noise and start reading the market’s intent. It is the base layer that allows you to build a clear, consistent bias. Price moves because buyers and sellers interact around key levels. Structure highlights where momentum strengthens, weakens, or reverses. By tracking how highs and lows evolve, you can identify trend, consolidation, and shifts in direction with far more clarity than any indicator can offer. Market structure is objective. It gives you a rule-based lens to interpret movement across all timeframes. Understanding Highs and Lows There are four structural components every trader must recognize. Higher High (HH): Price breaks above a previous high, showing buyers in control. Higher Low (HL): Price pulls back but stays above the prior low, confirming trend continuation. Lower High (LH): Price rallies but fails to reach previous highs, indicating weakening demand. Lower Low (LL): Price breaks below the previous low, signaling sellers taking control. These sequences are the building blocks of trend identification. When mapped correctly, they remove guesswork and reveal underlying momentum. Identifying Uptrends and Downtrends Uptrend: A sequence of HHs and HLs. Buyers consistently push price higher and defend higher floors. Downtrend: A sequence of LHs and LLs. Sellers control direction, rejecting higher prices and driving the market downward. A trend remains intact until structure breaks. This is why experienced traders avoid predicting reversals and instead follow structural evidence. When the market prints new HHs and HLs, the bias remains long. When LLs and LHs appear, the bias rotates short. Ranges and Consolidation Markets do not trend all day. Much of the time, they move sideways. A range occurs when highs and lows stay relatively equal, creating a horizontal zone with equal highs and equal lows. This is where compression happens. Liquidity builds above the range highs and below the range lows, and trend often resumes only after one side of the range is taken. In ranges, structure becomes neutral. Bias is formed only when price breaks out and retests with confirmation. Break of Structure(BOS) and Trend Shift A break of structure occurs when the market violates the pattern of the existing trend. In an uptrend, a break occurs when price prints an LL. In a downtrend, a break occurs when price forms an HH. This signals a potential shift in momentum. Breaks of structure matter because they identify turning points without relying on subjective signals. They show where one side loses control and the other gains traction. They also create clear invalidation points for risk management. How to Read Structure Across Timeframes Market structure becomes even stronger when used across multiple timeframes. The higher timeframe sets the primary bias. The lower timeframe provides entry precision. Weekly or Daily: Structural trend and major zones. 4H or 1H: Execution windows and key shifts. 15m and 5m: Entry confirmation. When all levels of structure align, the probability of a clean move increases significantly. Avoiding Common Mistakes Many traders misread structure by focusing on every small fluctuation. Structure is defined by meaningful swings, not micro noise. Another common error is assuming a single HH or LL immediately reverses a trend. Context matters. Breaks followed by continuation and retests confirm the shift. A disciplined trader waits for structure to become clear instead of acting on isolated candles. Turning Structure Into a Bias Structure simplifies decision-making. If the market is printing HH and HL formations, you prioritize longs. If it is printing LH and LL formations, you seek shorts. If highs and lows are equal, you wait for a breakout.
KRAKEN:BTCUSD.MH2026Education
by HyroTrader
19
No New Dividend Payouts Are Latest Sign of Wall Street SluggishUnderstanding Dividends and Dividend Market Futures A dividend is the distribution of corporate earnings to eligible shareholders. Dividend payments and amounts are determined by a company's board of directors. Dividends must be approved by the shareholders by voting rights. Although cash dividends are common, dividends can also be issued as shares of stock. The dividend yield is the dividend per share, and expressed as a percentage of a company's share price. Many companies - constituents of S&P500 Index still DO NOT PAY dividends and instead retain earnings to be invested back into the company. The S&P500 Dividend Points Index (Annual) tracks the total dividends from the constituents of the S&P 500 Index. The index provides investors the opportunity to hedge or take a view on dividends for U.S. stocks, independent of price movement, as S&P500 Dividend Index Futures is a market expectation of how many points Dividends Index will collect by the end of year. Using the S&P500 Dividend Index as the underlying in financial products, investors can hedge or gain exposure to the dividend performance of the S&P500 Index. Understanding S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures The S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures (main technical graph is for 2029 S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures) calculates the accumulation of all ordinary gross dividends paid on the S&P500 index constituent stocks that have gone ex-dividend over a 12-month period. The amounts are expressed as dividend index points. The underlying index for S&P500 Annual Dividend Index futures is the S&P500 Dividend Index. The methodology for the index can be found here at S&P Global website. Dividend index points specifically refer to the level of index points that are directly attributable to the dividends of index constituents. They typically only capture regular dividends and calculate this on the ex-date of the respective constituents within each index. In general, “special” or “extraordinary” dividends are not included as dividend points in the respective annual dividend indices. Futures contract Unit is $ 250 x S&P 500 Annual Dividends Index. Technical considerations on a Galaxy of S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures. The year 2029. Flat 18-months resistance under 80 points has been detected. S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures. The year 2028. Flat 18-months resistance, also under 80 points has been detected. S&P500 Annual Dividend Index Futures. The year 2027. Flat 18-months resistance, also under 80 points has been detected. Conclusion The graphs above indicate on a strong flat 80-point resistance over the next 1 to 3 years time span. No new dividends distributions are latest sigh of Wall Street sluggish. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
CME:SDAZ2029
by PandorraResearch
Report 20/11/25Report summary: Markets are trading on three intertwined tapes: (i) AI/capex financing (chip demand, data-center buildouts, and the credit plumbing behind them), (ii) policy/geo realignment (US–Saudi thaw, EU raw-materials and defense industrial policy, UK market-structure tweaks, ECB supervision stance), and (iii) macro visibility (US data delays, BOJ/JGB spillovers, and the dollar path). Into these, the near-term impulse is mixed-to-supportive for cyclicals and defense/AI infrastructure, constructive for EU banks on potential supervisory waivers, and two-way for duration and the dollar as investors “trade in the fog” of delayed US labor data and headline-sensitive AI prints. The cross-asset implication is a choppy but upward bias for the Dow (industrial, defense, energy tilt) and a more binary S&P/Nasdaq tape around mega-cap AI catalysts; USDJPY remains skewed higher with intervention risk; crude is range-bound with a geopolitical floor; and gold is a hedge bid that ebbs/flows with DXY swings and Middle-East optics. US data release slippage and the AI funding debate keep volatility elevated into year-end. Market context and immediate reactions US macro visibility deteriorated after the government shutdown forced BLS to delay key October labor detail (unemployment rate and labor-force stats) and reschedule the consolidated jobs release to mid-December. That reduced the data the Fed can lean on for the December meeting and helped curb market conviction on an additional cut. Equities chopped; the dollar firmed on the day of the announcement; and positioning clustered around a “binary” AI earnings tape (notably Nvidia). Parallel to the tape-driven swings, the financing burden for the AI buildout is now a core macro theme: with data-center capex needs measured in the trillions through 2028 and only about half covered by projected operating cash flow, credit markets and nontraditional sources (including retirees’ savings via asset owners) are being courted to fill the gap. That credit story is feeding through to spreads (e.g., Oracle CDS) as hyperscalers and suppliers term out funding for AI infrastructure. Policy and geopolitics what changed and why it matters US–Saudi thaw and deal corridor. Elon Musk’s attendance at the White House dinner for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman underscores a pragmatic thaw around capital, AI, semis and energy. Subsequent reporting framed a US ask for up to a $1 trillion Saudi investment package, with the Oval Office optics downplaying the Khashoggi issue, raising both deal momentum and reputational risk premia. Net market take: constructive for US defense primes, AI infrastructure suppliers, select chip names exposed to hyperscaler/sovereign orders, and US-Saudi critical-minerals tie-ups; headline risk remains. EU critical-minerals (CRM) stockpiling and a central buying “centre.” Brussels is preparing a coordinated purchase/stockpile mechanism, with price-floor options and fast-track supply treaties (e.g., Brazil, South Africa) to reduce China dependency across REEs, lithium and copper. This is structurally supportive for EU miners, selective western REE producers, and diversified CRM ETFs; tactically it puts a floor under tight CRM markets into 2026 while Brussels builds inventories and signing capacity. ECB supervision and trapped capital. The ECB’s top supervisor, Claudia Buch, signaled support for waivers that reduce national ring-fencing of capital/liquidity, a long-standing drag on pan-EU banking ROEs and cross-border M&A. If translated into policy, this lowers the cost of equity for consolidators, improves capital mobility, and lifts optionality for deals, supportive for the Euro Stoxx Banks beta. EU defense industrial push. The Commission is urging members to earmark more spend for “disruptive” dual-use tech (drones/AI/robotics) and is standing up a €1 bn fund-of-funds to scale defense startups, while streamlining procurement to favor European suppliers. Expect a persistent bid under EU primes and dual-use midcaps, and a livelier M&A pipeline between deep-tech startups and Tier-1/Tier-2 defense. UK market structure and sports financing. The FCA’s plan for a UK consolidated equities tape by 2027 (projected costs ~£93m and sizable longer-term benefits) should tighten spreads, lift liquidity discovery, and incrementally support London listings; it may also pressure legacy data-vendor monetization models. Separately, Wimbledon’s debentures look set for an exemption from a face-value resale cap, a relief for AELTC’s capex funding model (roofs, upgrades) via preserving secondary-market premia. US tech/antitrust and governance. Meta’s decisive court win against the FTC reduces breakup risk and lightens the regulatory overhang for mega-cap ad platforms, with read-across to multiples and capex confidence. In parallel, Larry Summers resigned from OpenAI’s board following the release of Epstein-related emails, primarily a governance optics event with limited operational impact, but it keeps AI-policy scrutiny in the headlines. Private-credit retail products under scrutiny. Blue Owl terminated a merger between two credit vehicles that would have crystallized a notional ~20% loss for certain investors due to a listed BDC discount, an emblematic case for the gating/valuation risks in semi-liquid private credit offered to individuals. Watch sentiment and flows around BDC discounts/premiums. Professional-services consolidation. BDO is accelerating multi-country mergers (e.g., a UK–Ireland cluster dubbed “Project Velvet”) toward a more unified global model, another signal that AI tooling and multinational client demands are forcing federated pro-service networks to centralize. Expect competitive pressure on mid-tier rivals and a stronger European deal cycle in audit/consulting adjacencies. Asia policy and JGBs. Japan’s supplementary-budget chatter ballooned (≈¥25 tn discussed), lifting the fiscal risk premium and pushing 10-year JGBs toward multi-decade highs and the yen beyond ¥155. Base case: higher USDJPY with elevated MoF intervention risk if volatility spikes; spillovers to global term premia are modest but non-zero when Tokyo syndicates longer-dated paper. Sovereign capital to frontier AI. Saudi-backed Humain is leading a $900 mn round in Luma AI (valuation >$4 bn) and building Project Halo data-centers; the package includes Arabic/regional models. The through-cycle read is sustained GPU and power-equipment demand and a widening sovereign-tech axis in AI video and “world-model” training. FX reserve managers and the dollar. Temasek’s CEO flagged that hedging costs on USD assets have risen enough to impair net returns, prompting a greater pursuit of “natural hedges.” Marginally, that argues for selective rotation into non-USD assets and supports EM Asia FX on the margin when risk is calm. Asset-by-asset: directional takeaways and levels to watch XAUUSD (Gold). Two-way. On one side, the US–Saudi deal corridor and EU defense/CRM policies keep a geopolitical hedge bid alive; on the other, a firming dollar into data-scarce Fed communication can cap upside in the very near term. Use dips toward support as optionality hedges into event-risk weeks; fade spikes if DXY strength persists and US real yields re-firm. S&P 500. Skewed to chop with upside bias if AI prints and funding optics remain orderly. Meta’s legal overhang eased, which is constructive for mega-cap ad/AI complexes; however, the AI-capex funding debate and data-center execution hiccups argue for selectivity beneath the index (own cash-generative “picks & shovels” and grid/power names alongside high-quality AI beneficiaries). Dow Jones. More resilient profile than the S&P into year-end as defense, industrial power equipment, and diversified financials benefit from policy tailwinds (US–Saudi defense/energy, EU defense, financing for AI infrastructure). Pullbacks on macro headlines remain buyable for balanced mandates. USDJPY. Upward bias (yen weaker) as JGB yields and fiscal supply concerns rise, but watch for MoF intervention thresholds and any BOJ signaling shifts. Tactical longs need hard stops and a plan for rapid reversals around headline-driven yen spikes. DXY. Range-to-firmer near term given US data delays/uncertainty and safe-haven demand during AI “binary” weeks; medium-term, watch reserve-manager hedging costs and any rotation toward natural hedges that could curb dollar rallies at the margin. Crude Oil. Supported by geopolitics and US–Saudi rapprochement optics, but capped by global growth moderation and high inventories in some hubs. Expect range-bound trading with a geopolitical floor; optionality structures (collars) suit producers and hedgers here. Strategic forecasts, fiscal/political implications, risks, opportunities Forecasts. Policy momentum in Europe (CRM stockpiles, defense tech, supervisory waivers) extends a multi-quarter reflation in EU industrials/defense and improves the medium-term ROE profile for cross-border banks. US–Saudi ties reopen capital and tech channels that anchor multi-year demand for defense platforms, nuclear/SMR components, GPUs, and power equipment. The US macro path is noisier until the consolidated jobs print in December; expect the Fed’s guidance to emphasize data dependence with lower conviction on the next cut. Fiscal/political. Japan’s larger-than-expected supplementary budget tilts fiscal-dominance narratives back into the JGB curve; Brussels’ CRM and defense initiatives formalize industrial policy at scale; London’s consolidated tape is a capital-markets competitiveness gambit ahead of EU implementation. US–Saudi deals draw Congressional and media scrutiny, but bipartisan support for defense/AI jobs tempers pushback. Risks. (1) AI-capex financing “accident” (credit-spread repricing, sudden capex deferrals); (2) policy execution risk in Brussels (delays dilute CRM/defense impact); (3) US–Saudi optics (sanctions or hearings) that slow deal pipelines; (4) BOJ/MoF shock (stealthy tightening or forceful yen intervention) that ripples through global rates/FX; (5) US data vacuums that amplify volatility and whipsaw Fed-cut odds. Opportunities. Favor barbelled exposure: high-quality AI “picks & shovels” (grid/power/turbines, select semis with backlog visibility), US defense primes and EU dual-use suppliers with backlog and pricing power, EU banks with cross-border optionality, miners and CRM processors aligned to EU stockpiles, and selective EM FX/equities as reserve managers diversify hedges. Use options to navigate AI-event gamma and yen-intervention risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
Airbnb - Long Strong Volume Support Zone The largest volume cluster is between $120–122, exactly where the stock is currently sitting. This shows a major accumulation zone, meaning institutions and traders are defending that level. Demand Zone Rejection Each time ABNB drops into the $120 region, buyers step in and push the price back up — a clear sign of support strength. The recent candle also shows rejection wicks from below, suggesting buying pressure returning. Healthy Correction Inside Range The price is in a sideways consolidation between roughly $120 (support) and $131 (resistance). This range allows accumulation before a possible breakout — classic base-building behavior after a pullback. Low-risk entry zone Entering near $121–122 gives an excellent risk/reward ratio since stop loss can be placed just below $118, minimizing downside exposure.
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by PacoW
Nvidia Earnings Finally Ease Market Jitters. Are AI Bulls Back?It’s confirmed. This is Nvidia’s stock market and we all live in it. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA reported yet another record-breaking quarter, instantly soothing market nerves after a week filled with talks of “AI bubble,” “valuation fever,” and “maybe Michael Burry is right again.” It was the cherry of the earnings season . The chipmaking giant announced $57 billion in sales during the most recent quarter. The figure is up 62% year-over-year and way above estimates. In other words, Nvidia didn’t just calm the market. It kicked the door open and shouted: “Get in losers, we’re going shopping.” CEO Jensen Huang was even more enthusiastic, declaring that “AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.” In classic Huang fashion, you could almost smell the leather jacket. 💽 Data Center Demand: Still Insatiable Let’s cut to the headline number: $51.2 billion in data-center revenue. Analysts expected $49 billion. Nvidia delivered more. The company’s new Blackwell GPUs, described by Huang as “off the charts” when it comes to demand, continue to fly off the production line the moment they’re made. Quarterly net income hit a whopping $31.9 billion, up 65% from the year prior. At a time when most companies celebrate single-digit percentage growth, Nvidia is casually stacking double and triple digits. 📈 Markets Exhale, Futures Soar The relief was immediate and widespread. You could say that Nvidia’s earnings are not just earnings anymore, but a macro signal. Here’s what the picture looked like after the release: CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV jumped 10% Futures tied to the Nasdaq NASDAQ:IXIC climbed 2% Every Magnificent Seven stock flashing green Investors had been waiting for confirmation that the AI boom still had room. And Nvidia delivered enough reassurance to light up the entire tech complex. “Okay. Maybe we don’t need to rotate into utilities just yet,” every tech bro, probably. 😬 The Stakes Were High. Really High. The reaction, though, must be taken within the current context. Over the past few weeks, tech stocks were hit by deep selloffs as markets fretted over the same question: “Is AI too expensive?” Between skyrocketing capital expenditures, absurdly ambitious data-center budgets, and the kind of spending plans that would make even sovereign wealth funds blush, investors wondered whether Big Tech was building an AI future or an AI money pit. Even Michael Burry stepped in, revealing positions betting against Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA and Palantir NASDAQ:PLTR . That move alone sent pockets of the market into a philosophical crisis. After all, that’s the guy from “The Big Short” and he’s hedged against your favorite trade. 🤖 So… Are the Bulls Back? Maybe. For now at least. But with conditions. Nvidia’s stock more than doubled between April and late October, only to slide in recent weeks as bubble fears thickened. Year to date, the stock is still up about 30%. Nvidia’s numbers prove that AI spending is still accelerating. But the broader question remains: Can companies actually turn those massive AI investments into profit? Nvidia’s blowout quarter just reset the narrative: AI demand is still real Spending is justified The cycle is still “virtuous,” in Huang’s words After this earnings print, the bull case has something it desperately needed: momentum. And momentum is a powerful thing, especially in a market that had started to doubt its favorite story. Off to you : Do you still see room for growth in the AI space? Or is that rebound a short-term reflex? Share your views in the comments!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingView
29
#NVIDIA $NVDA The new leader!Nvidia is the world's number one after passing $MSFT. -Valuation soars to $3.34 trillion. Nvidia completed a 10-for-1 stock split on June 7. The chipmaker last month posted yet another blockbuster quarter, noting a 262% increase in revenue and a 462% increase in profits year-over-year. I'm not going to write to much here. The market sentiment is clearly bullish and here are my projections for $NVDA. The chart should speak for itself. Targets zone is shown on the chart. Short term, expect price to consolidate withing the red projection marker based on divergences and anomalies in the relative strength index followed by a continuation of the upwards trend (green projection marker). Targets: (-128),146,160,200 |----Range-----| (alfa) I will take a bullish longer term stand on NASDAQ:NVDA from where we currently sit. Short term, expect a pullback/consolidation at the current level before a possible continuation. (Can add more intraday targets if requested).
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by BaseLineTraders
USD/JPY Rises Above 157.00 for the First Time Since JanuaryUSD/JPY Rises Above 157.00 for the First Time Since January According to media reports, the Japanese government is in the final stages of preparing an economic stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen (USD 135.38 billion) to help households cope with persistent inflation. This could become the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. The Cabinet plans to approve the package on Friday, and the supplementary budget to fund it on 28 November, aiming to secure parliamentary approval before the end of the year. This decision has led to a significant weakening of the national currency. Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart Fluctuations in the Japanese yen against the US dollar are forming an upward channel (shown in blue), and the fundamental backdrop this week has caused the price to: → break the QL line from below (and after the breakout, the rise accelerated, indicating imbalance — forming a Fair Value Gap pattern); → reach the median. It is reasonable to assume that around the median, supply and demand may balance each other, stabilising the market. It is also possible that the FVG area will act as support in the event of a correction. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1