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AUDCAD - The next Big Short?AUDCAD is surging on a combination of Gold reaching new highs and Oil testing Quarterly lows affecting the AUD and CAD currencies respectively, each nations exports being closely tied to those commodities. AUDCAD has been parabolically walking a bullish trend fan-line pattern with several attempts to test support. All technical indicators are at historical overbought extremes with many trading programs feeling the impact of the previous weeks readings, many trapped participants exiting their positions to reduce their exposures. Any strengthening of the US dollar will affect the AUD more so than the CAD and could act as the trigger of a sharp longer-term reversal. In the meantime there may be sharp and short bearish pullbacks to test support, so short-term opportunities exist.
by fugutrader
1
XAU/USD: Dip-Buyers Step In, Targeting a Fresh Push Higher📊 Technical Structure Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,652 after slipping below the $3,660 handle. The chart shows that price is holding near the support zone at $3,640–$3,635, while sellers capped upside momentum at the resistance zone $3,678–$3,684. Current structure suggests range-bound consolidation, with potential for a bullish rebound if buyers defend the support area. 🎯 Trade Setup Entry: $3,635 – $3,640 (near support) Stop Loss: $3,631 (below support zone) Take Profit: $3,678 / $3,684 (resistance zone) Risk/Reward: ~1 : 4.87 🗝️ Key Technical Levels Resistance Zone: $3,678 – $3,684 Support Zone: $3,635 – $3,640 Major Resistance Above: $3,700 round figure 🌐 Macro Background Gold remains pressured after the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut, which was less dovish than markets hoped. Powell’s cautious rhetoric supported a USD rebound, weighing on bullion. Still, the Fed’s projection of two more cuts in 2025 underpins medium-term bullish momentum for gold as real yields could decline further. At the same time, geopolitical risks in the Middle East provide safe-haven support, limiting deeper downside. 📌 Trade Summary The bias favours a long entry near $3,640, aiming for the $3,678–$3,684 resistance zone. Price action remains constructive as long as $3,635 support holds. A decisive break below could open downside risks toward $3,620. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ATFX_Global
XAUUSD – Trading Plan for the New York SessionHello traders, The last two trading sessions have been very successful, and I hope they have helped build your confidence in approaching the markets. Today, I will share my perspective on the next steps for gold during the New York session. Trend Outlook Gold has declined sharply and reacted well at the liquidity zones and support areas I highlighted earlier. Although the market has bounced twice from these levels, which may lead some to expect a recovery, my view is that the overall structure still favours the sellers. It is unlikely we will see a significant correction during this session. Towards the end of the US session, trading volumes may ease, but I believe the downward move will continue, albeit at a slower pace. Trading Strategies Sell Setup Zone: 3642 – 3644 SL: 3648 TP: 3635 – 3627 – 3615 – 3600 Buy Setup 1 Zone: 3613 – 3615 SL: 3608 TP: 3625 – 3638 – 3645 Buy Setup 2 (longer-term) Zone: 3595 – 3598 SL: 3590 TP: 3610 – 3625 – 3638 – 3645 – 3670 Conclusion For the New York session, the priority remains to follow the bearish bias, seeking Sell opportunities on the lower timeframes. Buy trades should only be considered at the strong support zones mentioned above. Stick to the plan and take positions when the setups align. Follow along to share ideas and receive the quickest updates as the market evolves.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by BrianLionCapital
Using Amazon as an example to write about intrinsic valueThe beautiful thing about equities, is that we can determine what the stock should be worth based on the future cash flows the company generates. It is called intrinsic value and professional investors often use this calculation to help them make higher quality decisions. The primary method of calculation is called discount cash flow. When building a DCF model is is recommended to use Wall Streets estimates to keep an unbiased opinion. Understanding the concept of discount cash flow, is like understanding the calculations behind any technical indicator, the thing about intrinsic value is that it is a fundamental indication not just technical. Equities go up, because companies are generating cash flows. Unlike commodities, which are only valued based on the general consensus of voters. It was Benjamin Graham the father of value investing who said, in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term the market is a weighing machine. There is a fantastic book I read called The Intelligent Investor written by Benjamin Graham I highly recommend giving it a read if your serious about making money in the market over the long term. Intrinsic value is the fundamental, true worth of an asset or business, as determined by an objective analysis of its financial performance and future cash flow potential. It is a crucial concept for investors, especially value investors, who use it to identify assets that are undervalued or overvalued by the market. Focusing on fundamentals helps investors avoid overpaying for assets and reduces the risk of permanent capital loss. If a stock's market price is significantly lower than its calculated intrinsic value, it may be undervalued and a good buying opportunity. The difference is often called a "margin of safety". Intrinsic value is based on an asset's long-term potential, encouraging a focus on sustainable growth and stability rather than short-term market noise. Now onto Amazon stock, according to my model the intrinsic value of Amazon is as of this writing $260 meaning that fundamentally it is still undervalued. Take this with a grain of salt because if you create a model using the discount cash flows of the company over the next 5 or 10 years you might get wildly different results. This is why it is essential to understand the calculation for yourself instead of just taking my word for it. This is a highly speculative calculation, it can also become relatively complicated. Lets compare two individuals performance over the course of their career, I would like to write about Dr. Al Brooks, often referred to as the king of price action by CME group, and Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors and richest men in the world. Al Brooks, the day traders net worth is about $750 million dollars over the course of his career in the market. Warren Buffett has a net worth of about $150 billion dollars. One is a trader, the other an investor. So where am I going with this? Everyone wants to get rich quick, everyone starts thinking they will be a trader. 90% of traders permanently lose their capital never to make it back and often times quitting participating in the market. The 10% of traders who are actually profitable, aren't making as much money as you would think, as per the comparison above. The average investor over the course of their lifetime will make 150x more money than the best traders. For me, I fell into the 90% category, trading didn't work for me, after reading The Intelligent Investor, the money starting coming into my account almost effortlessly. Dear reader, this article was written by me for my own entertainment. Please do not take anything I have written too literally, always do what works best for you and always remember, whatever your doing, you should be having fun. Cheers
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Capitalist_Zach
Gold fluctuations are under your control!After the gold interest rate decision, it went as we expected. Shorting near 3672, it first fell, and then going long near 3630 was bullish. The profit from this round trip was quite large. First of all, looking at the current overall background, although the Fed has implemented an interest rate cut, the message it conveys is far from purely dovish. Powell's speech suggested that this action is not the beginning of a radical easing policy, but a prudent move to deal with economic uncertainty, especially the weakening labor market and stubborn inflation. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits in the United States in the week ending September 13 was 231,000, which was expected to be 240,000 and the previous value was 263,000. The data fell sharply from the abnormally high level of the previous week and returned to the normal range in the past four years. From the perspective of gold technology, the 3670-3685 area can be regarded as the second top of the medium term. The bearish trend is established in the medium term first, and adjustments are made in conjunction with the overall short-term operation, with the main short position and the auxiliary long position. This rebound is regarded as a 4-hour adjustment to accumulate momentum and break through to open up more space. A weak closing can continue to be weak based on low consolidation. Missing the good position near 3670 does not mean that there is no position to participate in shorting. You can give yourself 1-2 times of tolerance in the face of the trend. As long as the direction is grasped, the final result will be profitable. This is very important.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
1911 Gold sitting on a powder kegMet Shaun Heinrichs CEO of TSXV:AUMB at 121 Mining in May, London - best mining pitch I've heard in years. Proper CEO, proper assets, proper plan. Started loading at 20 cents that same week while everyone else was chasing whatever shiny object the algo boys were pumping. Now sitting at 35 cents and we're just getting warmed up. Here's what everyones missing, gold just smashed all-time highs but junior miners are still priced like it's 2020. The disconnect is absolutely criminal. Meanwhile Eric Sprott just led a C$13.2 million financing well above my entry. When Canada's resource king writes checks at premium prices, you pay attention. The beauty of this setup, True North isn't some exploration fairy tale. It's a past producer with C$300 million of infrastructure already built and permitted. Try replacing that today and see what Beijing quotes you. 1.1 million ounce resource. Zero debt. Zero royalties. Trading at 0.29x NAV while comparable stories sit at 0.70x. The market's having a proper lie-down. Underground drilling starts late September. PEA drops Q1 2026. Production restart 2027. The timeline's locked and the catalysts are coming whether Mr. Market's paying attention or not. Chart shows textbook resistance break at 35-38 cents. Four months of smart money accumulation creating the perfect powder keg. Once this ceiling cracks we gap through 40 cents straight to 60 cents by Christmas. From 20 cents to 60 cents. That's a 200% return while the crowd's still figuring out what junior miners are. But here's the kicker - 80 cents is just the third target. With full NAV realization at C$1.01 and infrastructure this valuable, we could be looking at dollar-plus territory once this thing really gets moving. Stay long. The infrastructure advantage is real. The repricing is coming...
TSXV:AUMBLong
by ridethepig
10
Further rate cuts by the Fed could boost gold prices again.Gold prices fell on profit-taking after hitting a record high in the previous session as markets assessed the US Federal Reserve’s stance on further interest rate cuts. The Fed on Wednesday made its first rate cut since December and left the door open for further easing, but warned of persistent inflation, raising doubts about the pace of future policy adjustments. Gold, which typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments and periods of uncertainty, has gained nearly 39% so far this year. In the short term, gold prices are under pressure to take profits after a series of consecutive increases in recent days and the market has reflected this in the price movements. However, in the long term, the Fed's further interest rate cuts - and the weakening USD - could push gold prices up again.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FalCol_TradingMaster
GOLD "lost steam" after the peak because the US Dollar increasedThe world OANDA:XAUUSD fell in the session on Thursday (September 18) after hitting a record high of 3,707.40 USD/ounce the day before. The main reason came from profit-taking activities of investors and the strengthening of the US dollar and treasury bond yields. As of the time of writing on Friday (September 19), spot gold was trading at 3,648 USD/oz, equivalent to an increase of 0.12% on the day. New economic data from the US weighed on the market: initial jobless claims fell to 231,000, lower than expected, while the Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index unexpectedly jumped to 23.2, a sharp improvement from the previous month. This pushed the greenback higher and made gold more expensive. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.102%, while the real yield was close to 1.722%, adding to the pressure on the precious metal. This was largely a technical correction after gold hit a series of new highs. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive. The precious metal typically benefits when the Fed enters a policy easing cycle. In fact, the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 basis points, although there was no absolute consensus. Chairman Jerome Powell called it a “risk-control” measure for the labor market, but also affirmed that the Fed is in no hurry. In addition, data shows that gold exports from Switzerland to China increased 254% in August, reflecting strong demand from Asia. The trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves of the BRICS bloc continues to be a major support for gold prices. Since the beginning of the year, gold has increased by nearly 39%, and investors still believe that the target of $ 4,000 / ounce can be challenged in the near future. Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD Gold has had two sessions of technical corrections, but it still has all the bullish conditions in place, while the initial conditions for a deep correction have not yet appeared. Currently, gold is trying to recover and is still above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, which can be said to be the closest support at the moment. On the other hand, gold is still in an uptrend channel and is receiving major support from the EMA21. As long as gold remains above the $3,600 base point, the declines should be viewed as a short-term correction or a fresh buying opportunity. The relative strength index (RSI) is also moving sideways after testing the 80 level, and a steep RSI break below 80 would be considered a signal for a possible deeper correction. For the day, the overall technical outlook for gold is bullish, and the key points to watch are listed below. Support: $3,614 – $3,600 Resistance: $3,673 – $3,700 – $3,707 SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3678 - 3676⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3682 →Take Profit 1 3670 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3664 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3606 - 3608⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3602 →Take Profit 1 3614 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3620
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
Dot Plot Divide: Dollar Gains, Gold Stalls The USDJPY spiked lower following the Fed’s 25 basis point cut yesterday but quickly reversed trajectory as the dot plot projections from the FOMC came in softer than markets had expected. The updated dot plot showed a narrow majority of FOMC members anticipating two more small rate cuts in 2025, while others leaned toward just one or even none. This potentially suggests that the Fed is not simply aligning with Trump sycophant and newly appointed FOMC board member Stephen Miran’s aggressive call for repeated 50-basis-point cuts and instead signals an element of independence. USDJPY (left chart, 1H): The pair has carved out a sharp V-shaped reversal after its Fed-driven dip, showing strong bullish momentum. This suggests buyers remain in control unless a reversal candle (such as a bearish engulfing) forms. XAUUSD (right chart, 4H): Gold’s rally topped out near 3,707 before pulling back more than 600 pips to 3,646. The most recent candles show shorter bodies with upper wicks — a potential sign of fading momentum and supply pressure. If this develops into a bearish continuation pattern, the channel’s border becomes the next area of focus.
by BlackBull_Markets
NVDA at a Crossroads: Battle Between TrendlinesNVIDIA is currently consolidating in a tight range, locked between an ascending green trendline of support and a descending red resistance trendline. This setup signals that a breakout is near, with the next directional move likely to bring strong momentum. 🔍 Technical Analysis Current Price: 176.74 Structure: Triangle squeeze between rising support and falling resistance. The ascending trendline from June continues to provide strong bullish structure, but the red downtrend capping recent highs must be broken to regain upside momentum. 🛡️ Support Zones (with Stop-Loss): 🟢 170.85 | SL: 163.74 – 1H Support (Medium Risk) 🟢 144.78 | SL: 141.34 – 4H Support (Low Risk, strong base) 🔼 Resistance Levels: 🟥 Red downtrend line near 180 – Breakout above confirms renewed bullish impulse. 🧭 Outlook Bullish Case: Hold above 170.85 and break the red downtrend → momentum push toward 185–190. Bearish Case: Failure to hold 170.85 could trigger a deeper pullback into 163 or even 145. Bias: Neutral to bullish as long as price stays above the green trendline. 🌍 Fundamental Insight While NVDA remains a market leader in AI and GPUs, recent earnings have highlighted slowing revenue growth compared to prior explosive quarters. This has cooled investor enthusiasm, making technical levels even more important for short-term direction. ✅ Conclusion NVDA is at a decision point: stuck between trendlines, awaiting a breakout. Bulls must defend 170.85 while bears eye resistance around 180. A resolution here could set the tone for the coming weeks. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by husseindergham
1
XAU/USD – Eyes on Liquidity Zones & Fed CuesGold is trading around $3,655, and we’re approaching a key decision zone. Here's how I'm currently mapping out the price action: 🔍 Technical Outlook Key Resistance Zones: $3,661.77 – $3,664.86 (major supply zone) $3,668.15 – $3,668.44 (liquidity sweep potential) Support Zones to Watch: $3,649.64 – $3,646.45 (intermediate demand) $3,646.45 – $3,643.51 (major liquidity pool & potential long trigger) 📉 Bearish Scenario: A rejection from the $3,660s could offer a nice shorting opportunity into the lower liquidity zones. I'm watching for a reaction near the $3,654 - $3,651 area for confirmation. A break below may accelerate the move to $3,646s and lower. 📈 Bullish Scenario: If price breaks and sustains above $3,664, we could see a clean sweep toward the $3,668s, where further liquidity sits. A potential long setup could emerge on a retracement back to the $3,657 zone. 🌐 Fundamental Drivers 💬 FOMC in Focus: Traders are closely eyeing any dovish shifts from the Fed after recent CPI data came in softer than expected. 🏛️ Rate Cut Speculation: With inflation showing signs of cooling, market participants are starting to price in a possible cut by December, which could support Gold's bullish case. 📉 Bond Yields & Dollar Weakness: A continued pullback in yields and DXY would provide tailwinds for Gold. 📌 My Plan: Waiting for confirmation near the marked zones (especially the $3,651 or $3,657 regions). Let price come to you – liquidity tells the story! 💬 What’s your bias on Gold? Drop your analysis below! 🔔 Don’t forget to like & follow for more real-time setups! Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by MrYounity
BTC/USDT Long Position – Clean R/R SetupThis chart represents a planned buy entry on BTC/USDT based on market structure and recent price action. Entry Zone (Buy): 115,937.92 Take Profit (TP): 117,920.25 Stop Loss (SL): 115,023.24 The setup is built on a clear retracement entry, providing a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Market recently showed a pullback after a drop, and this zone aligns with potential liquidity grab, making it a strong entry point for buyers. 📌 Plan: Enter long around 115,937.92 Risk is strictly limited with SL below recent liquidity sweep at 115,023.24 Upside target is set at 117,920.25 for a clean R:R opportunity This is a technical setup only, not financial advice. Always manage your own risk
Long
by HarisAliG
General Mills Holds Firm in a Challenging EnvironmentBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades General Mills (Ticker AT: GIS.US), one of the U.S. food industry giants, has reported results that show resilience despite difficulties in its main market. In North America, where much of its business is concentrated, volumes declined by 16 percentage points, reflecting weaker consumer demand and competitive pressure. Even so, the company has chosen to maintain its annual guidance, which has been interpreted as a sign of confidence in its ability to deliver. In the quarter, net sales fell 6.8% to $4.52 billion, a negative figure but one that still came in better than analyst consensus expectations. This detail helped soften the market reaction, which could have been more severe. On the positive side, the performance of the U.S. pet food division stood out, rising 6% and confirming this segment as a key growth driver for the company. The international business also showed strength, advancing 6%, which helps diversify risk against the slowdown in its domestic market. From an investment perspective, General Mills remains a defensive stock within the consumer staples sector, supported by a solid brand portfolio and a geographic diversification strategy that provides stability. However, the decline in North American volumes remains a warning sign, as it sets the tone for what could be a year of margin pressure. Technical Analysis of General Mills (Ticker AT: GIS.US) Since May 2023, General Mills has been in a clear downtrend, with a brief pause in September 2024 and subsequent failed recovery attempts in March and April 2025. Since July, the stock has been in a consolidation phase, trading in a narrow range with support at $49.72 and immediate resistance at $51.04, reflecting short-term indecision. Key technical levels to watch are: Critical supports: $48.29 (yearly low) and $46.36 (previous low), which represent key areas to hold in order to avoid further deterioration in price action. Relevant resistances: a breakout above $56.38 could pave the way toward $65.94, marking a shift into a more constructive bullish scenario. As for indicators, the RSI remains in neutral territory, reflecting the absence of overbought or oversold conditions, while the MACD is beginning to show signs of recovery from negative territory, suggesting a potential short-term turnaround. Meanwhile, the ActivTrades US Market Pulse currently points to an extreme Risk-On environment in the U.S., characterized by strong appetite for risk assets, broad-based equity gains, and declines in safe-haven assets. However, this wave of optimism contrasts with the defensive nature of General Mills, which historically performs better in periods of greater uncertainty. General Mills Holds Its Ground as a Defensive Play General Mills maintains its profile as a defensive stock, backed by a diversified portfolio and growth drivers such as its pet food and international businesses. Nevertheless, the drag from North American volumes and margin pressure calls for caution. Technically, the stock appears to have found a floor and is currently in neutral territory, awaiting a decisive breakout. As long as it holds above its critical supports, the likelihood of a rebound toward resistance levels remains plausible, though only a breakout above $56.38 would confirm a more solid trend reversal. In a market environment dominated by extreme risk appetite, General Mills may take a backseat compared to more cyclical or growth-oriented assets. Even so, it remains an attractive option for investors seeking stability and exposure to the consumer staples sector. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
NYSE:GISLong
by ActivTrades
CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) - Long Setup Targeting BreakoutTrading Idea: CRUS (Cirrus Logic, Inc.) - Long Setup Targeting Breakout Symbol: NASDAQ:CRUS Recommendation: BUY Strategy: Swing to Position Trade (Fundamentally Supported Breakout) 🎯 Trade Summary Entry: $122.33 (Limit order on a pullback to support preferred) Stop Loss: $109.80 Take Profit 1: $138.00 (Partial Profit) Take Profit 2: $146.30 Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.1 📊 Technical Analysis 1. Trend & Structure: The chart shows a clear higher high and higher low structure, confirming the primary uptrend is intact. The recent consolidation near the $120 level is interpreted as a healthy bull flag/pause, not a reversal. 2. Key Levels: Support (Buy Zone): $120 - $122. This level has acted as both previous resistance and now support. It also coincides with the rising 20-period SMA, adding confluence. Resistance (Profit Target): The measured move from the recent consolidation pattern projects a target towards the $146 area. 3. Indicators & Confluence: RSI: Is hovering around 60-65, indicating healthy bullish momentum without being overbought. There is ample room for the trend to continue. Volume: Look for an increase in volume on the breakout above $125 to confirm buyer commitment. The entry point offers a favorable location relative to the risk, placing the stop below a significant support cluster. ⚖️ Fundamental Catalyst This trade is not just technical; it is supported by strong underlying fundamentals: Revenue & Earnings Growth: CRUS has demonstrated strong growth in net income YoY. Healthy Balance Sheet: The company boasts an exceptionally strong financial position with virtually no debt and a perfect debt health score. Valuation: While not deeply undervalued, current ratios are considered fairly valued for a growth company in its sector. This fundamental strength provides a solid foundation for the technical breakout to play out and reduces the probability of a catastrophic breakdown. ⚠️ Risk Management The stop loss at $109.80 is placed below the significant support level and the 50-period SMA. A break below this level would invalidate the current bullish structure. Position size accordingly so that a hit to the stop loss does not exceed 1-2% of your total capital. Consider taking off 50% of the position at the first target (~$138) and moving your stop loss to breakeven on the remainder to secure profits and let the runner ride to $146.30. ‼️ DISCLAIMER This post is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Trading stocks, options, futures, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The charts, analysis, and trade ideas shared are my personal opinions and should not be the sole basis for any investment decision. You should always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Happy Trading! #SwingTrading #Long #NASDAQ #CRUS #TradingSetup #Breakout #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis
NASDAQ:CRUSLong
by shortermtrader
Bullish compression below 117k: game plan and risks__________________________________________________________________________________ Market Overview __________________________________________________________________________________ The trend stays bullish but capped by a multi‑TF supply zone, with higher lows supporting the structure. Event‑driven flow (options/witching) may trigger fakeouts around key levels. Momentum: Bullish 📈 yet constrained below 116.9k–117,322; buyers control as long as 116.2k–116.3k holds. Key levels: - Resistances (HTF/ITF): 116,900–117,322 (multi‑TF decision zone); 117,950–118,000 (intraday liquidity); 120,000 (psychological shelf). - Supports (ITF/HTF): 116,200–116,300 (intraday floor); 114,500–114,800 (240/720 pivot cluster); 111,965.8 (weekly support). Volumes: Overall normal; 4H moderate (watch for a volume spike on breakout). Multi-timeframe signals: 1D/12H bullish (MTFTI filter), 6H/4H tactically supportive below 117,322; 15m micro risk‑off → prefer confirmed breakout or buy on support. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: Neutral buy — aligns with momentum, but the 1D macro dashboard remains risk‑off, arguing for patience. __________________________________________________________________________________ Trading Playbook __________________________________________________________________________________ The dominant stance is cautious‑bullish below resistance; favor pro‑trend executions on confirmed signals. Global bias: Buy‑the‑dip while 116.2k–116.3k holds; key invalidation below 114,787.9. Opportunities: - Breakout buy: daily/4H “break & hold” above 117,322 aiming 118k then 120k. - Pullback buy: 116.2k–116.3k with 1H/2H bullish reaction, add above 117.0k. - Tactical sell (counter‑trend): fade a clean rejection at 116.9k–117.3k, tight stop > 117.6k, targets 116.2k then 114.5k. Risk zones / invalidations: - A break below 114,787.9 invalidates the bullish bias and opens 114,471.7 then 111,965.8. - No close > 117,322 over 2 bars (4H/1D) reduces breakout odds. Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news): - Fed: −25 bps; USD still firm → whipsaw risk around witching/rebalancing. - BoJ accommodative and softer oil → lighter inflation pressure, tactical risk support. - Large options expiries ahead → gamma/hedging flows can amplify false breaks. Action plan: - Entry: Buy 116,200–116,350 (confirmed 1H/2H bullish reaction). - Stop: Below 115,950 (1H close). - TP1/TP2/TP3: 117,000 / 117,950–118,000 / 120,000. - R/R approx: ~2.5R / ~5–6R / >10R from a 116.25k core entry. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Insights __________________________________________________________________________________ HTFs are bullish while LTFs manage a compression under 117,322; the key trigger is a confirmed, high‑volume breakout. 1D/12H/6H: Uptrend compressing below 117,322; 114.5k–114.8k is the buy zone; best setups are clean breakout or controlled dip buys. 4H: Strong if triggered; “break & hold” > 117,322 with rising volume unlocks 118k then 120k. 2H/1H/30m: Range 116.2k–117.3k; watch reactions at 116.2k; 4H moderate volume could catalyze the move. 15m: Mild sell pressure; risk of a support sweep before any trigger — avoid anticipating without confirmation. Major confluence/divergence: Single resistance 116.9k–117,322 across TFs; macro 1D risk‑off vs 4H/6H tailwinds → demand confirmation and volume. __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro & On-Chain Drivers __________________________________________________________________________________ Macro is mixed: tactical support post‑Fed contrasts with a 1D risk‑off backdrop, while options flows may dominate near‑term action. Macro events: Fed −25 bps (tactically risk‑on), USD still firm (headwind for BTC), cluster of events (quad‑witching, rebalancing, expiries) fosters whipsaws; BoJ easy stance and softer oil ease inflation; persistent geopolitical noise. Bitcoin analysis: Positive ETF inflows and high IBIT volumes back demand; whale withdrawals from institutional venues reduce immediate spot supply — supportive if breakout confirms. On-chain data: ~95% of supply in profit with a key line near ~115.2k; record options OI (~500k BTC) and max pain ~110k for 26 Sep → potential magnets; perp OI stabilized. Expected impact: Setup aligns with a cautious‑long bias, but a move > 117,322 needs a volume spike to avoid a head‑fake. __________________________________________________________________________________ Key Takeaways __________________________________________________________________________________ BTC is bullish but stuck beneath a key multi‑TF resistance. Trend is positive; the most relevant setup is a “break & hold” above 117,322 (or a controlled dip buy at 116.2k–116.3k) with confirming volume. On the macro side, the Fed’s rate cut helps, but options expiries can blur signals. Be patient, trade confirmed triggers, and defend invalidations.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ox_kali