GBPUSD– Rejection at Resistance: Technical and Macro PullbackGBPUSD has climbed back into a strong multi-week resistance zone just beneath 1.3670. While the recent rally was sharp, it now confronts both structural resistance and weakening UK fundamentals. The British economy is losing steam—GDP contracted more than expected, manufacturing output is weak, and the latest CBI survey paints a grim industrial outlook. Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to push back on early rate cut expectations, lending resilience to the USD. Technically, this aligns with a potential top forming near 1.3630–1.3670, offering a compelling risk-reward for sellers.
🔻 Bias: Bearish
• Favoring short setups from resistance, backed by weak UK data and a sticky Fed narrative.
🔑 Key Fundamentals
🇬🇧 UK:
May GDP: –0.3% m/m (worse than forecast)
CBI Industrial Trends: Output volumes and orders well below long-run average
Inflation slowing, but BoE hesitant amid stagnant growth – classic stagflation
🇺🇸 US:
Fed officials (Barkin, Collins, Cook) emphasize caution
Core services inflation still elevated
Fed rate cuts now expected in September, not July
⚠️ Risks to the Bearish View
Hawkish surprise from the BoE (if they hike or signal tightening)
U.S. Core PCE comes in soft, pressuring the USD
Sustained global risk-on rally pulling GBP higher via equities
📅 Important Events to Watch
June 25–26: Fed Chair Powell testimony to Congress
June 28: U.S. Core PCE inflation report
UK CPI revisions, retail sales, and BoE commentary
U.S. jobs and consumer confidence (early July)
📉 Technical Setup – Short from Key Supply Zone
Chart Structure:
Major confluence resistance at 1.3625–1.3665 (blue zone)
Multiple rejection wicks + ascending wedge structure
Bearish divergence building on momentum (not shown)
🎯 Trade Setup:
Entry Zone:
🔹 Sell between 1.3625 and 1.3665, ideally after a bearish engulfing/pin bar or 4H rejection
Take Profits:
TP1: 1.3535 – local support
TP2: 1.3465 – fib and horizontal confluence
TP3: 1.3390 – wedge breakdown target
Stop Loss / Invalidation:
🔸 SL above 1.3685**
A 4H/1D candle close above invalidates the setup and opens the door to new highs.
Risk-Reward:
RR to TP1: ~1.8
RR to TP3: 3.5+
🧭 Summary:
GBPUSD is technically stretched and facing key resistance. With UK macro data deteriorating and Fed members holding the line, this rally looks increasingly vulnerable. As long as 1.3685 holds, sellers may dominate with clear downside targets over the next 1–2 weeks.
