Trade Idea: GDXTrue Bull markets in Gold are led by the miners, as spec money bids the sector and industry higher.
We know that Gold has outperformed and had magnificent strength to the upside however its counterparty GDX has lagged.
Seeing relative strength in Gold & relative weakness really emphasizes what were going through... a Liquidity crisis.
Gold is moving on fear and miners are lagging.
If gold softens up just a bit GDX will see a greater move to the downside.
GDX
$GDX: Next Target $38.41This is not financial advice.
I believe $GDX will make a run up to at least $38.41, and potentially higher.
The measured move is confirmed by long hand as well as Fib. extension:
1. High of $33.34 minus it's low of $21.52 (Point A) = $11.82. Point B's (retracement) low of $26.59 + $11.82 = $38.41.
2. Drawing the Fib. extension as show on the chart confirms the same price target.
Don't Fall for VIX Volatility Dead Cat Bounce“Happiness was never important.
The problem is that we don't know what we really want. What makes us happy is not to get what we want.
But to dream about it. Happiness is for opportunists.
So I think that the only life of deep satisfaction is a life of eternal struggle, especially struggle with oneself.
If you want to remain happy, just remain stupid.
Authentic masters are never happy; happiness is a category of slaves.”
GDX Technical Support Outlined...Here we are looking at GDX on the Daily TF…
This analysis will be fairly brief, as the chart is crystal clear as of right now. Here you can see that GDX has retraced since its most recent uptrend which began in November of 2022. Currently, I am expect GDX to bounce off of the strong technical support as marked by the horizontal line (yellow).
This outlined support line hasn’t been re-tested since its break out from it (as previous resistance) which led to its run up as previously mentioned. Now, we can expect GDX to attempt to bounce from this line, and turn this previous resistance into newfound support.
It’s as simple as that…
Let me know what you think BTC is going to do next in the comments!
Cheers!!
#gdx #gdxj Anchored vwap + 200dma to support next leg of rally?Keep an eye on GDX and GDXJ, the two most popular gold mining ETF's. We have a confluence of the anchored vwap from the April 2022 highs meeting the 200dma. If history repeats we could start to see gold miners gather a bid here for the next move higher.
Gold price is holding up at the 38.2% fib + yearly pivot, so im watching closely for another rally at these levels of interest.
Golden opportunity?Most ‘experts’ are declaring the gold cycle done
I agree it’s at a possible reversal zone
But given my analysis that the dollar has not bottomed
And looking at the bigger picture for gold and miners
This could be an opportunity to buy into strength
This next 24 hours are key for gold and miners
GRI 2023
What an incredible rally in GOLD from Support - what's next?This incredible rally in Gold won't really end until prices reach levels above $2250. My target is closer to $2400 - but we'll see how things play out.
Overall, Gold moves in $350 price phases. From recent lows, the top of that $350 price phase is near $1985.
I would suspect a moderate pause/pullback after reaching the $1985 level. The low of that pause/pullback will prompt another $350 upward price phase.
If we assume the low of the pullback will be near $1900, then the upper target of the next upward price phase will be $2250+.
Eventually, as Gold shifts into a parabolic phase, those $350 price phases will increase..
A. $481
B. $525
C. $566
D. $700
As the speculative phase in precious metals continues, we'll see varying expansion/contraction phases until the peak is reached after 2027~28.
Hang tight, this is just getting started.
Follow my research.
GDX Dips Likely to Find Support in 3, 7, 11 Elliott Wave Swing1 hour chart of Gold Miners ETF (GDX) below shows that the pullback to 27.54 ended wave (2). The ETF has since extended higher in wave (3). Internal subdivision of wave (3) is in a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 29.32 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 28.12. Then the ETF rallied higher in a nest. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 29.99 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 28.41. Wave (iii) ended at 31.98 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 31.26. Final leg wave (v) ended at 32.75 which completed wave ((iii)).
Pullback in wave ((iv)) is ongoing as a zigzag where wave (a) ended at 31.94 and rally in wave (b) ended at 32.65. Wave (c) lower is expected to end soon which also complete wave ((iv)). Afterwards, the ETF should rally higher in wave ((v)) before ending wave 1 and cycle from 12.20.2022 low. GDX should then pullback in wave 2 to correct the cycle from 12.20.2022 low in larger degree before the rally resumes. As far as pivot at 12.20.2022 low (27.54) remains intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside.
Newmont Mining - The Long Play Going ForwardGold Miners have suffered, and this one has now capitulated in my opinion.
Yielding 5.6%+ and near a hefty demand level between 38-35, I'd expect a new uptrend in this one sooner rather than later.
(See pink circles in the longterm squeeze indicator chart, extremely eversold - second most since 1985)
Step risingFrom my analysis this are my targets for the comming month. Mid December more or less, is my stimated time to get them
GDXJ: fill the gar at that levels.
GDX: Same, could reach 35$-36$ (now at 25$)
And gold....back to somewhere close to 1.920$
Good times coming, and dangerous, as ususual.
Good Times Tomorrow, Hard Times (The Long Ryders)
www.youtube.com
Gold has reached it's target areaWe are now backtesting the weekly trendline and reached the weekly upper BB. In my opinion it's time to take profits and (possibly) collect shorts. They could go a bit higher to spike through the trendline first.
Getting above 1900 on a weekly close would be very bullish for gold and we could see all time highs in 2023. My guess is a pullback here at least for now.
Good luck!
October rally ready to resume?If you have been anticipating a resumption in the October rally, this may be the trigger. The SMH/SOX is the (I believe) the last of the major indicies to still have a gap left unfilled. If it closes today (or this week), then maybe we can get going to the upside. Some resource stocks have already started their ascent (GDX, SILJ, UUUU, UEC, NXE, etc.)
GDX coiling againIt has been a while since it would be even worth to look into GDX, and I think it is about time... still early, but good to plan ahead and see if it is working out as projected.
GDX (Gold miners) mounted a good recovery but stalled on a trend line and retracement is likely to see 27, else 25.
The technical indicators (MACD and VolDiv) are turning bullish, but not just ripe yet. Expecting a higher low about 25-27 (red ellipse is the optimistic target; also the 62% retracement level) in early to mid January 2023. Bouncing off the 23-week EMA would be a good indicator that the projection is in line.
So... being optimistic for a comeback, but until the pullback is apparent, sitting on my hands first.
Happy Boxing Day!
Portfolio Selected Visuals (PSV) vol IThis is a list of my personal portfolio selected ETFs with the simplest visuals, using MACD as the only technical indicator and the trend lines with breaks or breakdowns to give us a new series of PSV charts. ;-)
Note that these are using Weekly charts, and a break out is qualified when there is a trendline break out accompanied by a MACD crossover (within a week or two).
From left to right...
GDX (Gold Miners ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but sees to have met resistance (red ellipse)
ILF (LatAm ETF) is still within a trapped range.
XLK (Technology ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse) soon after.
GXC (China ETF) qualified a break out on 28 Nov, after a higher low. Appears to have another break out above a resistance line.
XLE (Energy ETF) qualified a break out on 17 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have broke down of support/resistance (red ellipse).
INDY (India ETF) qualified a break out on 31 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse).
XME (Metal Mining ETF) qualified a break out on 24 Oct, after a higher low, but seems to have met resistance (red ellipse).
EWS (Singapore ETF) qualified a break out on 14 Nov, without a higher low, and further qualified a better stronger break out pattern on 28 Nov.
From this set of visuals, GXC and EWS are the front runners. GDX appears a close third.
GDX Gold Miners BullGDX chart on the 1D and 3D time frame.
-Miners look good here, imo. 1D 13/48 MA cross, but not yet on the 3D. Five waves down watching for big impulse here.
-Price has touched back on $27 possible head and shoulders trendline.
-On 3D price has breached downsloping trendline
None of this should be interpreted as financial advice, I am not a professional or certified financial adviser! all charts, and or analysis' are my personal opinions and observations only!
More upside on Gold and Gold ETF While Gold fell yesterday due to interest hike fears and China's economy.
I believe the Gold still has more upside.
Currently, looking at gold miners ETF. Believe that it might fall to support level ($26 area) and bounce back higher.
Aiming for around the $ 30 area..
However, should it break $26, I will exit my trade.
How high and how low can Gold go in this cycle?In my honest opinion Gold will head much much higher in the next decade, and the double top at 2070 is bound to break. In the short term it also looks fairly bullish as it has reclaimed several key support levels, along with the 200-400 DMAs and the diagonal trendline. Getting up to 1900-1920 over the next few days or weeks definitely seems possible.
However in the medium term it isn't clear whether it is ready to resume higher. To me it looks more likely that Gold will get to 1600 and maybe even 1300 before getting to 3000. The quadruple bottom at 1670 looks vulnerable, as so does the triple bottom at 1450, while the 1300-1350 looks like a massive magnet. The market never retested that breakout and it could certainty revisit it before going higher.
But how could gold go lower if inflation remains high? Well inflation has been high for a while now, and yet Gold is still sitting below its 2011 ATHs. Central bank balance sheets have exploded, and yet gold remains quiet. In my opinion this has to do with several things, that could range from manipulation up to a strong dollar. Central banks are cornered and not many governments are profitable enough to add gold to their balance sheets. Some will potentially be forced to sell in order to support their currencies. As energy and food go higher, bonds yields will go higher, and therefore more opportunities will arise outside of gold. Being long oil is probably a better inflation hedge than being long gold. At the same time higher inflation forces people to sell stuff in order to cover their extra costs, and that includes gold. People bought gold as insurance for a period of high inflation, and now they need to exercise that option. Finally, as bond yields go up, if the dollar also goes up, then this could seriously harm gold. If the USD appreciates too fast along with interest rates going higher, then gold could collapse along with most other assets in the case of a liquidity squeeze.
In conclusion, I don't believe inflation is fully under control, I don't think we are done with QE and low rates by Central banks, however I do think that gold isn't ready for prime time yet. Gold is in a weird spot both fundamentally and technically, so I'd need to see a more bullish price action in order to be convinced that 3000 will come before 1300.