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nick.trader4 nick.trader4 USDJPY, 240,
USDJPY: USD/JPY IDEA- Something to consider after Yellen statement.
35 0 5
USDJPY, 240
USD/JPY IDEA- Something to consider after Yellen statement.

Couple scenarios to consider here depending on the tone and remarks made by Yellen regarding monetary policy. Currently USD has been moving up but the move will only continue if Fed chair Yellen reinforces her comments made 2 weeks ago when they decided to raise rates again and stated they were still on track and serious about another rate hike in 2017 either in ...

IvanLabrie IvanLabrie PRO RUT, 3D, Long ,
RUT: Russell 2000: The bullish case
153 0 15
RUT, 3D Long
Russell 2000: The bullish case

We have potential for a new uptrend signal emerging this week, after NFP comes out. If I'm right, we might see a strong rally in equities, lasting well into November. The time target would put a top by November 16th or sooner, which interestingly aligns with the Federal Reserve's FOMC November meeting, which has been hinted that will be a 'live' meeting, regarding ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: DXY/ USD: THE WEEK AHEAD - ITS ALL IN THE CHART
662 0 30
DXY, D Long
DXY/ USD: THE WEEK AHEAD - ITS ALL IN THE CHART

DXY: 1. Given the firming of USD STIR/ Fed funds following Yellens JH remarks and the markets hawkish reaction i still think there is another % or so of topside to be priced into USD topside. - Fed funds implying 36% probability of a Sept hike - the highest implied prob in 3 months - hence given cables 50pip appreciation i feel theres another 100pips here to be ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPJPY, D, Short ,
GBPJPY: SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM
388 4 15
GBPJPY, D Short
SELL GBPJPY: RISK-OFF SHIFT COMING? LOWER BOE MONPOL EQUILIBRIUM

GBPJPY: 1. Given Fed Yellen's "hawkish" market response and GBPUSD, GBPNZD and GBPAUD shorts TPd on the rally lower today cleared (FX risk book clear too), im looking to add some safe haven assets to my portfolio. 2. Looking at GBPJPY and GBP structures on the whole, there has been alot of sterling longs in the past 2wks accumulating in spot as economic ...

DXY: SELL GBPUSD & USDJPY: FED CHAIR YELLEN JACKSON HOLE HIGHLIGHTS
476 0 14
DXY, D
SELL GBPUSD & USDJPY: FED CHAIR YELLEN JACKSON HOLE HIGHLIGHTS

Yellen as interpreted by the market was bullish, though price action immediately following the JH Speech Highlights was anything but this clear cut and imo said alot more about what was actually said i.e. there is still uncertainty/ no clear commitment, as DXY moved higher immediately after before aggressively selling off for the next 20-30minutes, before then ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: SHORT GBPUSD & EURUSD: FOMC DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
247 2 12
EURUSD, D Short
SHORT GBPUSD & EURUSD: FOMC DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

Fed Dudley reiterated his hawkish sentiment from earlier in the week today, concentrating somewhat purely on the labour market and its gains (ignoring every other data point since that would mean being dovish) nonetheless this is supportive of USD bulls regardless of the genuineness. As posted earlier, i like GBPUSD and EURUSD shorts - see attached posts. The ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, D,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS
259 0 11
NZDUSD, D
NZDUSD/ AUDUSD: MONETARY POLICY DECISION HIGHLIGHTS

Relatively poor delivery from the RBNZ, by the looks of the whipsaw the market wanted/ expected 50bps based on the AUD differential and the RBA rate cut last week 50bps or some alt policy (e.g. QE) seemed like the smart move to make. From here Kiwi and Aussie longs look preferential as the macro environment shifts to a yield seeking stance from monpol trading - ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: BUY USD DIPS VS GBP/ NZD: DOVISH FED W. DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
125 5 8
DXY, D Long
BUY USD DIPS VS GBP/ NZD: DOVISH FED W. DUDLEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

Fed Dudley was speaking At A joint New York Fed, Indonesian Central Bank Seminar On Sunday evening when he left a mixed impression for the markets to digest - saying "it is premature to rule out an interest-rate increase this year" but then on the contrary saying "Raising Rates Prematurely Would Be Riskier Than Moving Slightly Too Late" and following up that ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: LONG DXY / USD: HAWKISH FOMC RATE STATEMENT - SEPTEMBER HIKE?
308 4 7
DXY, D Long
LONG DXY / USD: HAWKISH FOMC RATE STATEMENT - SEPTEMBER HIKE?

The FOMC rate statement was largely in line with expectations and to the hawkish side - with a september hike hinted at. Much of which followed the rhetoric of FOMC members in the past few weeks (see previous posts) and data (disregarding the poor -4% durable goods mom print). Perhaps the most hawkish/ promising statement made for a Sept rate hike was the fact Fed ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading NZDUSD, D, Short ,
NZDUSD: NZDUSD SHORT UPDATE: EYE RBNZ GOV G. WHEELER SPEECH CLOSELY!
243 2 13
NZDUSD, D Short
NZDUSD SHORT UPDATE: EYE RBNZ GOV G. WHEELER SPEECH CLOSELY!

The Govenor of the RBNZ is speaking in 16 hours time - there could be significant up/ downside volatility in Kiwi - as we have seen after the past 3wks where the RBNZ have gone through the full hawk-dove cycle in their inferences/ rhetoric. We had RBNZ Spencer's comments on house inflation back on the 7th of July which wrote off an RBNZ OCR cut - sending kiwi$ to ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Short ,
AUDUSD: SELL AUDUSD - JUNE RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS - DOVISH/ CUT POSSIBLE
242 3 14
AUDUSD, D Short
SELL AUDUSD - JUNE RBA MINUTES HIGHLIGHTS - DOVISH/ CUT POSSIBLE

On the margin RBA remained in line with previous meetings, adding little but still keeping it on the dovish side imo. Once again, as in previous minutes (and from several other central banks) RBA continued to communicate the necessity of "watching key data" to drive future policy decisions. Interestingly though, they also mentioned the negative impact of a strong ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Short ,
EURUSD: SHORT EURUSD: MISPRICING ECB & FED POLICY/ FUTURE POLICY/ BREXIT
487 2 17
EURUSD, D Short
SHORT EURUSD: MISPRICING ECB & FED POLICY/ FUTURE POLICY/ BREXIT

The Gross underpricing of ECB and FOMC Monetary Policy Changes - A fully-priced medium-term equilibrium Lower coming? EURUSD: *Short EURUSD 3m-12m Duration: 1/2lots @1.11 - 1.07TP1; 1.04-5TP2 1.01TP3 1. On Decemeber 2nd the ECB cut their rate by 10bps to 0.05%, paradoxically this actually caused EURUSD to rally higher. Thus this is a mispricing as Reductions ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, W, Short ,
DXY: EOW SUMMARY: RISK THE OVERALL WINNER - US30 & SPX @ 2% NEW HIGHS
528 2 13
DXY, W Short
EOW SUMMARY: RISK THE OVERALL WINNER - US30 & SPX @ 2% NEW HIGHS

End of Week Summary: 1. On the week we saw risk outperform safe havens for the first time since the brexit vote and the SPX and DJ30 set new all time highs by 2% and 1.2% respectively - somewhat encouraging given this was the longest period post-crisis that equity indexes have had since new highs, with a total time of apprx 1 year. 2. Given the articles ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading GBPUSD, D, Short ,
GBPUSD: GBPUSD SHORT: DOVISH BOE M. CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUG CUT
458 0 20
GBPUSD, D Short
GBPUSD SHORT: DOVISH BOE M. CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - AUG CUT

IMO Mark Carney was very dovish on the margin, certainly reinforcing their/ my view of an August cut being 90% on the table. The most supportive statements were "MonPol Important In Cushioning Effects Of Any Relapse In Recovery In Months & Quarters Ahead", "The MPC Does Not Have The ''Luxury '' and "More Should Be Done To Cushion The Effects Of Negative Shocks" - ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading DXY, D, Long ,
DXY: LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS
189 0 10
DXY, D Long
LONG DXY/ USD VS GBP: HAWKISH FOMC LOCKHART SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS

FOMC Lockhart was the 4th Fed this week to imo be relatively Hawkish with his words, most notably reinforcing with the others brexits near-term stability saying "Doesn't Expect 'Brexit' to Have Near Term Impact on Economy" and " So Far 'Brexit' Reaction Largely Orderly". Most interestingly though was Lockharts view on the FOMC's positioning for future rate ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading EURUSD, D, Long ,
EURUSD: LONG USD VS JPY, EUR, GBP: HAWISK FED BULLARD - FED FUNDS RALLY
584 8 23
EURUSD, D Long
LONG USD VS JPY, EUR, GBP: HAWISK FED BULLARD - FED FUNDS RALLY

Bullard is the lone Fed official forecasting just one additional rate increase, and expects modest growth over the next two and a half years. But he reiterated Tuesday he's not expecting the economy to head south. However, did go out of his way to mention a relatively dovish point "We Have Some Ammunition if We Need it During Next Recession". Nonetheless he ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading AUDUSD, D, Short ,
AUDUSD: SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS:  BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGE
1520 4 44
AUDUSD, D Short
SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS: BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGE

Short AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons: 1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph). - With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to ...

QuantumLogicTrading QuantumLogicTrading USDJPY, 15,
USDJPY: BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADE
287 1 18
USDJPY, 15
BREXIT AND GEO-POLITICAL AFTERMATH: BUY USDJPY - HOW TO TRADE

Now that the Brexit risk has been realised the mentioned pairs above will share some correlation this week as the market changes between risk-on and risk-off as MANY on the events continually drive the sentiment shifts. My Plan & Expectations USDJPY 1. My conviction for UJ is long 8/10. -UJ traded to lows of 98.9 in the midst of the brexit hype, as the market ...

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