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Gold: XAUUSD Break out in close-upGold XAUUSD Sea-Change - And an each way bet: Gold has managed to close above the long-term resistance line that has capped every rally since the high in 2011 (this also marks the high for the CRB index, and since then commodities have traded down and the Dow has traded up.) This break is significant by the look of it. (See also next upload for close-up). It's managed one close above that line in 6 years, a half-hearted attempt, that closed $3 above the line and was met with a bear engulfing red candle the next day. Big fail resulting in a $80 decline. On Monday we either get a big fail: worth following on downside if we see it. This will mean that the Dollar has has not only held up in London but managed to stage a decent rally. This could happen - anything can - and would mean USD has fooled probably most TA's by by closing on a new low before reversing higher. The chart doesn't say that should happen, it says the opposite - but $h*t happens. So if you're around when Tokyo opens and you're interested enough check out how USD is faring and Gold too. Can only say that if Gold does fail tomorrow and you see a red candle or pin bar when you wake up it will likely be worth following for the next few days. So that shouldn't happen though, but.... as above. What should happen is the Dollar should get sold off - if not in Tokyo in London - and Gold should surge. That's what price does when it breaks out, after all (see Amazon, Alphabet, Nasdaq recently). DXY should fall to 95.10, down 1.7% from here. Gold looks like it has 1303 written on it, which is just $2 more than 1.7% added to current price at 1279. Eventually - and obviously providing Monday is a positive day for Gold - it looks as if it will rally further still, to 1334-1341 range and then higher still in the next wave to the 1366-1375 range. Whichever way Monday goes is pivotal for XAU - if interested in this trade maybe follow the price action as soon as you get up - and just follow the trend at that point for the next few days. If long leave stop under the big trend/dividing line. If short leave stop above the big line. Monday is a big day for this complex. Either way looks worth following.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
S and P 500: More range trading in storeS and P 500: Some seasonal facts to help you decide on likely S and P direction from here over the Summer: S and P 500 Highs and Lows since 2011 HIGH LOW 28.4.11 5.8.11 and 28.9.11 27.4.12 31.5.12 and 9.11.12 21.5.13 20.6.13 and 27.8.13 and 9.10.13 no May peak 6.8.14 and 15.10.14 18.5 15 20.8.15 and 28.9.15 19.4.16 19.1.16 and 10.2.16 and 27.6.16 (Brexit) and 8.11.16 (Trump) HIGH Pattern: A significant high is made in a small window of 32 days between 19th April and 21st May in 5 of the last 6 years. LOW Pattern: In EVERY year a low is made in a 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November. 3 lows in August = 50% of all years, 2 lows in June (but one was Brexit) 28th September = 2 lows (2011 and 2015) 9.10.13 and 15.10 14 - 5 days apart 9.11.12 and 8.11.16 - 2 days apart So it's fairly clear that one should be looking to enter this trade from the long side in the 6 week window between 28th September and 9th November and to exit the trade in the 32 day window between 19th April and 21st May each year, in preparation for the Vix long trade the following month (see Vix comment) For the purposes of this exercise we obviously have to choose an optimal date and so it's quite likely that you can analyse and finesse this part of the equation better than I can, but here I'm choosing the last trading day of April to exit and the 16th October as entry date. Once again I believe that the timing of entry (more so than exit) can be improved significantly using Techical indicators, again up for further discussion. But sticking to the same entry end exit dates for the purposes of this exercise and for simplicity yields the following results over 7 years to date: Being invested in the S and P from start of analysis from first buy on 216th October 2010 through to 30th April 2017 would have netted 1210 points in profit. Being invested for 6.5 months from Mid October to end April the next year has yielded a return of 1289 points, so only 79 points more or just 11 points per year difference - but over 6 to 7 months, not 12 months each year. So the point is: NOTHING is lost by being out of the S and P 500 during the Summer months, as clearly shown for the last 7 years now. This year there is at least a new paradigm: like it or not his name is Donald Trump. Maybe he can save the S and P from summer doldrums - but he's going to have deliver a new trick pretty soon if the S and P isn't going to get bored with the UnTruman Show over the summer and gradually sell off, culminating in a mini sell off, with a 50-50 chance that this will occur in August.
FX:SPX500
by sumastardon
XAUUSD: GET LONG on open in Oz and you'll wake up richerXAUUSD: Gold - was bearish of gold on Friday. Now the wind's changed - completely - 180 degrees due to the Dollar breaking down. This should save gold from further falls as people flock to it as a shinier, safer safe-haven than the Dollar for a while. Worth getting long asap (NY will be too late for this) as Oz opens as the price is so low at 1228 it means a stop can be placed at 1224 for a 4 to $5 maximum loss if wrong. Upside from here could be considerable over the next few weeks if the Dollar tanks as anticipated looking across all Dollar crosses right now.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by sumastardon
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