Kappy
Short

And boom goes the dynamite!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
My previously published chart called that a series of 1 & 2 waves had developed. Price looks like it is now dropping in third wave fashion. There's as slight adjustment to the count which makes this wave (3) of ((3)) of iii of ( iii ).

In the news: Bitcoin Miners Miss the First BIP 148 “Deadline” https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bit...

but, price was already dropping... it's as if markets are irrational and driven by a "social mood" or "crowd psychology" rather than exogenous causes like the news ;)
Comment: The B triangle played out. This count is invalidated. Back to "Expecting more upside with Bitcoin"


Although the expectation is to get well into the 3000s I'm sitting on the sideline. I prefer not to hold bitcoin the next two weeks.
Wait I think my head just exploded. You think we're in a giant flat? Or are the letters at top typos?
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Kappy thetazeta
@thetazeta, no typos, been calling this for months
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Kappy thetazeta
@thetazeta, read my notes and discussion in the comments and you can see how/why I make my case

here
and
here
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@Kappy, Yikes! I didn't expect this to make sense... Here's what occurred to me:

- If we say wave I starts July 2010 with Mt Gox that makes wave I four years long; at higher degrees like cycle it's common for wave I and II to be equal length (DJIA '32-'37 wave I and '37-'42 wave II for example).

- Expanding flats are rare coming off first waves. But I suppose that's because they usually follow extensions and 1 waves rarely extend.

- Ah then I remembered one historical 2nd wave wave mega-flat: the US market 1789-1835. It looks expanding or running depending on $ adjustment. Here's a link, you might get a kick if you're not familiar:

http://traderskillset.com/prechter-djia-elliott-wave-labels-from-1932/

I'm still skeptical because of the rarity but this is a legit possibility I'll be keeping in mind, thanks for making me aware!
+1 Reply
thetazeta thetazeta
* whoops 3 and a half years that is for wave I, not four... which brings us to right about now...
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Kappy thetazeta
@thetazeta, yes, this makes timing proportional. Thanks for sharing the link!

Wave I in percentage terms probably will be the extended wave because it went from .01 to 1163 = 116,299% gain. For argument's sake, if bitcoin went down to $10, price would have to rise above $1,162,990 for wave III just to be slightly larger in percentage terms. I haven't done the math but I think that blows out the largest standard fib projections by a long shot. Anyway, after the Mt.Gox crash price arguably fell too far too fast and is why a flat correction pattern is what's unfolding to be proportional in time imo.
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kkkkkkkkk, And many did not believe. And it will go deep.
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