In the news: Bitcoin Miners Miss the First BIP 148 “Deadline” https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bit...
but, price was already dropping... it's as if markets are irrational and driven by a "social mood" or "crowd psychology" rather than exogenous causes like the news ;)
Although the expectation is to get well into the 3000s I'm sitting on the sideline. I prefer not to hold bitcoin the next two weeks.
- If we say wave I starts July 2010 with Mt Gox that makes wave I four years long; at higher degrees like cycle it's common for wave I and II to be equal length (DJIA '32-'37 wave I and '37-'42 wave II for example).
- Expanding flats are rare coming off first waves. But I suppose that's because they usually follow extensions and 1 waves rarely extend.
- Ah then I remembered one historical 2nd wave wave mega-flat: the US market 1789-1835. It looks expanding or running depending on $ adjustment. Here's a link, you might get a kick if you're not familiar:
I'm still skeptical because of the rarity but this is a legit possibility I'll be keeping in mind, thanks for making me aware!
Wave I in percentage terms probably will be the extended wave because it went from .01 to 1163 = 116,299% gain. For argument's sake, if bitcoin went down to $10, price would have to rise above $1,162,990 for wave III just to be slightly larger in percentage terms. I haven't done the math but I think that blows out the largest standard fib projections by a long shot. Anyway, after the Mt.Gox crash price arguably fell too far too fast and is why a flat correction pattern is what's unfolding to be proportional in time imo.