From a technical stand we look like taking another leg higher on the Dollar as you can see from my chart here. We also have more and more talk about a Fed rate hike before the end of the year which even if it doesn't happen can cause a rally in to that news with the excitement it will create.
From the lower time frames, the USD looks rather bullish, the reason for that is clear when you look at this daily chart. Over the last week or so, the dollar has made a significant rally and when looking at this rally on the lower time frames it appears the the USD is in a strong uptrend that will likely see new structure highs. However, with that being said,...
Looking for potential retracement high to Short the indices, with my main focus on DIA currently. DIA staged a nice ABC-wave rally recovering from major pivot low of 150.5. Currently looking ripe for a continuation of the underlying major correction from 183-150. The 175-176 region is ultra significant, comprising of: (i) previously surrendered H&S neckline,...
The weekly index chart, with monthly MTPC overlay shows a vivid picture, that of a constantly weak yen. We are right at a longterm downtrend mode resistance from the historical high back in 2007*, and the last test of it resulted in the start of a very volatile monthly downtrend. We have this mode resistance as the first obstacle for new highs, as well as the low...
USD index made an impressive run higher in the last 24 hours, to the upper side of a trading channel where gains can be limited, but not for long. What we see is wave (iii) at the high so pullback will be wave (iv) that can retrace back to 96.00 area before uptrend will continue. We think that price is headed up to 97.00 area in the next few trading...
We will be looking for a long entry on the E-mini S&P in the trigger zone. We could get a nice move off the trigger zone. However, we will keep a tight leash on this. Earnings have been dismal at best which may place pressure back on the the market. Remember: NO TRIGGER - NO TRADE!
This simple algorithm uses Exponential Moving Averages of the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index to trigger buy/sell and short/cover signals on a daily chart. I've backtested the algorithm for SPY (1994-present), SPX (1981-present), SPX500 (1971-present), and it beats the S&P 500 in every occasion. The algorithm cannot correctly time every single crash or...
Just one traders opinion on what's to come. Remember, traders don't get paid on opinions. Have a bias, but never be afraid to change it if the market shows you you're wrong.
After covering our last trade the NQ is still selling off. We will establish new positions on bounces. For now these will be smaller positions. As we have mentioned...snap back rallies can be violent. Remember NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
The NQ has hit its first two targets. Stops have been pulled to lock in more gains. From this point target 3 is open. However we will watch the break down area at 4218, if price starts trading above that area with volume then we will cover the trade and look for another setup. Ideally we would like to get a quick slide to 4150 area but that would be a perfect world!
No further trades popped up this last week in the Nasdaq and we are 3 trading days away from FOMC. Aunt Janet will make the market move but it's a crap shoot as to which way. There is plenty of speculation surrounding the rate decision but do not get wound up in it. We will sit on the sides lines and see how the market closes after the announcement. Expect...
The $ES is looking weak. The bounces have been feeble and with low volume. What started as a wedge has evolved into a flag and this points to lower prices. We WILL NOT take the break of the flag. We will wait for the break and look for pullbacks on a smaller time frame (60 min) to trigger us short. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Ok...we are not perfect and make mistakes. Price touched our trigger zone and we failed to get short. Bummer! We like to see price get into the zone...but its not a hard fast rule. It would have been a great trade. However, we are now back into the flag range which confirms a failed breakout. We will look to get short on any moves to the upside. ...
The $ES is in a tricky spot. Major resistance is above but is also butting up against a hidden resistance area now. It will take some serious buying to get us up to the watch areas. This is not a sell area for us however it is in the $NQ (see post). For now we will keep the $ES on the radar.
The Russell still has some ways to go until hitting her breakdown levels. It's lagging the $ES an $NQ. We will watch the 1152.00 area to see if price can hold. If we see price trade below this area then a squeeze could be in play. Be patient and wait for a trigger.
SPDR® Barclays Long Term Corporate Bond ETF (LWC) fell out from 1-st standard deviations of quarterly (66-day) and 1-year (264 day) means, thus entering a full-blown downtrend. This scenario is only cancelled if price gets back within 1-st standard deviation from 1-year mean (above 38.7) Traders can take short positions off 1st standard deviations from quarterly...