From the lower time frames, the USD
looks rather bullish
, the reason for that is clear when you look at this daily chart
. Over the last week or so, the dollar has made a significant rally and when looking at this rally on the lower time frames it appears the the USD
is in a strong uptrend that will likely see new structure highs. However, with that being said, when we move up to the higher time frames on this pair like the daily and the weekly we see this clear range that price action has been trading in. With the underlying trend of this pair from a very long term perspective being bullish
, this range and/or "pattern", if you would like to call it, can be signified as a bullish pattern
if in fact price action does break out of the pattern to the upside. However there is a very good chance that price action could continue trading in this range for a few more weeks. With price action being bucked up at the top of this range and some very important US fundamentals coming out in under one hour there is a strong possibility that, if this market wants to continue ranging, the upper trend line
will hold as resistance and price action will make a downward move to the bottom of the range. Is there potential for the upside break out to occur today from the US data being released today? Sure, there is always that possibility, but it is a total gamble. To conclude, as very few retail traders are equipped with an all mighty crystal ball, it would be best to remain in cash during the US data release and wait for the market to digest the data before looking to get involved in any positions. After the market digests the data then look to get involved and ride out some of the momentum that resulting from the data release. This will present the least amount of risk and give the highest percentage of successful trades as the "market makers" will decide where the markets are going this morning, and once those decisions are finalized the markets will, without doubt, move in which ever direction has been decided for them. Good luck to you all, and hopefully this will open up the eyes of some of the traders that find themselves gambling on a daily basis.