INDEX_DXY_4H🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
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Analysis of short and medium term dollar index
The analysis style is based on Elliott waves.
The indicator is in an ascending wave, which is currently the big 3rd wave, which is again a downward correction wave as wave 4 and again the continuation of the ascending wave towards wave 5.
3 wave resistance 105.000
Support wave 4 number 103.300
5 wave resistance 106.600
Index
DAX Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DAX was trading in an
Uptrend along the rising
Support but now we are
Seeing a bearish breakout
So we are locally bearish
Biased and we will be
Expecting a further move down
Sell!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
BTC Short Trade Opportunity and SetupBYBIT:BTCUSDT.P / BYBIT:BTCUSDT / CRYPTO:BTCUSD Bitcoin/BTCUSD has recently hit the resistance level of a pattern that has generally held true since mid March 24 (4 preceding resistance and support confirmations).
Furthermore, it has started a return downward move following on from a 3 day filter for confirmation of the resistance level (an example of how a 3/5 day filter is an important tool for crypto trading).
Additionally:
The RSI resistance level of 70 has been recently reached and the RSI is trending downwards - a usually statistically significant indicator
The downward return move is supported by reasonable (although not enough on it's own) volume
A 3 bar pattern (downward move, pause, further downward move for confirmation)
A rate of change approaching and trending negative
A MACD also approaching negative
It's always important to assess the risk that might prove the thesis wrong. And they are:
Today's candlestick pattern is close to a dragonfly, i.e. there might be a return upwards move imminent (although this is unlikely to constitute a beginning of a move beyond the previous high as an actual dragonfly candlestick is at the end of a downtrend)
The MACD is trending down but has not actually turned negative yet, i.e. it is a bit early to say this indicator is stating a downward trend
The ROC hasn't turned negative yet either (but is trending downwards for sure)
This all leads to the following conclusion: For those with a high enough risk appetite (and usually crypto traders are those with the highest :-)) this is a good entry point for a short trade.
Using the (admittedly early but still reasonable) trend for the past three days to determine the final take profit point of 45500 (blue arrow) by approx. 19 Nov 24, the following can be set as a guide for a trade:
Entry: Now or latest tomorrow in case today's candlestick is an indicator of a minor move upwards
SL: $70,500
TP1: $63,450 - based on the first potential moving average being a resistance (200 MA)
TP2: $60,500 - based on the previous move's consistent (and twice confirmed) low
TP3: $54,500 -based on a previous historic low (i.e. psychologically important price point) which also acts as a confirmation of support to a previous move
TP4: $45,500 - The approximate price point of an estimated downward trend
Exit date (independent of TP level): 19 Nov 24
NOTE: the 19 Nov date here is important. It is the forecasted date by which the current downward price trend would linearly reach the support level. This date would be used as a checkpoint to exit the entire trade to safeguard against the normal, usually dramatic and beyond rational calculation price gyrations of crypto.
$EUGDPQQ -Europe's GDP (Q3/2024) ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ 0.4%
Q3/2024
source: EUROSTAT
- The Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% on quarter in the three months to September 2024,
the strongest growth rate in two years, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and above forecasts of 0.2%
The German economy expanded 0.2%, surprisingly avoiding a recession, after a downwardly revised 0.3% decline in Q2.
GDP growth also quickened in France (0.4% vs 0.2% in Q2) and the Spanish economy remained robust (0.8% vs 0.8%).
In addition, the Portuguese economy grew 0.2%, the same as in Q2 while the GDP in Ireland (2% vs -1%) and Austria (0.3% vs 0%) rebounded and grew faster in Lithuania (1.1% vs 0.3%).
On the other hand, the Italian economy stalled, following a 0.2% rise in Q2 and Latvia remained in contraction (-0.4% vs -0.3%). Year-on-year, the Eurozone GDP expanded 0.9%, the best performance since the Q1 2023, compared to a 0.6% rise in the previous quarter and higher than forecasts of 0.8%.
The ECB expects the GDP in the Eurozone to expand 0.8% this year.
NAS100: Inside day, first green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range ✅
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day ✅
3 Days Long Breakout
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day ✅
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: this is my main scenario, I can potentially see a weekly dump and pump starting from Wednesday, day where the market broke through the low of week and started reversal. Yesterday, Thursday, we can see a coiling, closing the day as an inside day and first green day, a potential long signal. After the equity opening at 9:30am, I will be willing to take a long setup if presented.
Short: this is my secondary scenario, sometimes we can see the inside day acting as a trading range false break reversal if the market will setup for a short trade.
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
DOW JONES: testing the 4H MA200 and is expected to rebound.Dow Jones is on a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.958, MACD = 306.300, ADX = 31.951) as the Channel Up pulled back to almost test the 4H MA200 for the first time since the September 11th Low. This is basically the top of the support zone of the Channel Up and based on the 1D RSI, a strong buy candidate. We turn bullish, aiming at the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 43,900).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NASDAQ: Approaching lower supports. Two levels you can enter.Nasdaq has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.116, MACD = 179.950, ADX = 45.004) as it failed to make a new High above the LH trendline and is being pulled down towards the 4H MA200 and 1D MA50. Those two are the major support zone and buy entry. But before that, the first is where the price is right now, at the bottom of the dotted Channel Up. The 4H RSI is almost on the S1 level (33.50), which has been the buy signal for October.
So the first buy entry is now, aiming at a +4.50% increase (TP = 20,950). If it fails, add another just over the 1D MA50 and take profit on both after again a +4.50% price increase (TP = 20,650).
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Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) To Hit 6,124 First, Then 8,660SSE had a rally from 2005 to 2007 establishing the all-time high of CNY 6,124.
After that, the price had built a weird corrective structure with ups and downs fading in magnitude over a very long period of time.
It took 17 years to complete the giant contracting triangle (white ABCDE marks).
The pattern was broken to the upside this summer.
This is the first harbinger of possible reversal and potential rally.
The confirmation we wait is the breakup of the peak of wave D beyond CNY 3,724
The conservative target for the upcoming rally is located at the all-time high of CNY 6,124
The ultimate target is set at the equal distance of blue wave (A) in blue wave (C) at CNY 8,660
DXY D1 - Short Signal DXY D1
Cleaning up our dollar index chart here, we have previously been following the price level of 103.000, then 103.300 and now we are looking at this 104.000 whole number. This would be an area of resistance we would yet again expect a rejection. Of course, we have exploded through both previous zones, after some consolidation.
Without trying to catch a falling knife, so to speak… There certainly should be a correction due on the dollar index in the near future. The bullish D1 candle run has been insane, I’d like to see a correction to around 102.000 after testing 104.000 territory.
Barriers in the interim sit at 103.300 support and 103.000 support respectively, simple resistance to support and support to resistance as we break and move beyond certain trading zones.
SP500 Secondary Trend. Bowl + handle. Resistance zone. 11 2023Logarithm. Large timeframe 1 week. On the chart a big bowl, you can say already with a handle, the price is testing the resistance of the previous market highs for the 3rd time (entering this zone). Breaking through it, this resistance will become a very strong support during the pumping (probability no more).
Simplifying the complex is the key to success.
Complicating the simple is a guarantee for your own confusion and mistakes on the plain.
It is based on knowledge and experience, which always leads to simplification of actions, not to complication !!!!
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
The SP500 index (500 companies of the global hegemon) is a reflection of the "health of the US economy" and, conventionally speaking, of all markets in the world. It is needed more as an indicator of the direction of other markets, including cryptocurrency (the market is maturing), than for trading as such.
1️⃣ The increase in % rates will stop closer to the US presidential election, which is logical.
2️⃣ Before elections, the ruling party always shows the people the positive in its work for the people, even if there is none, i.e. injects money into the economy.
3️⃣ Handing out "free money" to potential voters before elections. Who will take it to the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
4️⃣ Changing the bear market cycle to a conventionally bullish one in 2024 and a bullish one in 2025.
5️⃣ Overcoming previous all-time highs, this is the third time we have tested this resistance of the SP500 index.
In other words, everything is as always. Before the elections, “everyone is good” and is pushing the economy up. USA together with the Fed. Only the so-called “black swan” can influence this, whether it is real (there are no such things) or staged, it doesn’t really matter. But, this is all a hypothetical probability, nothing more, which must always be kept in mind. Therefore, when the market rises, protect your profits with stop losses or hedge with correlated positions. As a rule, nothing happens, and if it does, the event itself is always inflated by the media and bloggers tens of times in importance, thereby creating the illusion of fear. Don't fall for such tricks, either.
The present, and especially the future, is not always a projection of a repetition of the past. It may be conditionally the same, but the details are radically different. This must always be remembered.
On linear, it looks like this:
The main trend of the index More than 100 years for clarity. Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. The whole trend. Anniversary 100 years
Vertical growth by +372% (madness, super pump)
Before the super collapse of the “Great Depression” Publication 11/22/2022
SP500 index. Pumping before the "Great Depression" Code 372-69
The game controls the people, not the people the game. The concept of a lot is always replaced by a little, a little more, until all their expectations “burst” from greed. This encourages some to become wiser, some, on the contrary, the closer the abyss, the cuter the devils.
$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
-The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024,
compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2.
It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West.
The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence.
In September alone, there were some positive signs:
industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%.
On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%.
During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.5%
(September/2024)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.5% in September 2024 from 3.0% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since April.
Electricity prices increased the least in three months as the impact of energy subsidy removal in May waned (15.2% vs. 26.2% in August), and the cost of gas rose much more slowly (7.7% vs. 11.1%).
Moreover, costs moderated for food (3.4% vs. 3.6%), furniture & household utensils (4.8% vs. 5.2%), transport (0.1% vs. 0.2%), and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%).
Additionally, prices fell further for communication (-2.6% vs. -2.4%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%).
On the other hand, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.7%) and healthcare (1.5%), while edging higher for clothes (2.4% vs. 2.3%) and miscellaneous (0.9% vs. 0.8%).
Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a five-month low of 2.4%, down from August's 2.8%, compared with the consensus of 2.3%.
On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.3%, pointing to the first drop since February 2023.
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7%
source: Office for National Statistics
-Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%.
The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels.
Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001.
Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023.
In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%).
Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
DOW JONES: Turned the previous Resistance into Support.Dow Jones is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.922, MACD = 449.140, ADX = 44.993) as it recovered yesterday's losses but more importantly it is rebounding at the top of the former Channel up. Having broken over it 3 sessions ago, two short term patterns emerged a Rising Wedge (HH, HL) and a Channel Up. If the HH trendline is crossed, it will be the perfect buy signal to target the top of the short term Channel Up (TP = 44,000). The 1D RSI shows that a rally similar to July 10th is possible.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DXY - Dollar Index 4H bearish setupThe TVC:DXY is showing potential for a bearish reversal after its recent rise. Technically, DXY has bounced back to a key resistance zone after a major fall, reaching the order block from the last leg down. The failure to break significantly higher from this resistance suggests the possibility of another downward move. Liquidity grabs above the resistance zone further support this bearish outlook. However, a small bounce within the resistance zone before another fall is still possible as liquidity is gathered from the upside.
Fundamentally, several factors are influencing the bearish sentiment for the USD. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing easing cycle and the potential for further interest rate cuts weaken the dollar, especially as inflation pressures remain subdued. Other central banks, including the ECB, have cut rates, increasing the interest rate gap with the USD, which could further reduce demand for the dollar
DXY H1 - Short before longDXY H1
Very good morning all, here is our update on the dollar index, last week we saw bulls storm the markets following various different data points. The bull run has sustained and Mondays trading session saw indecisive price movement in the form of consolidation. We are looking like we want to break to the downside.
Slowly, but hopefully surely we start to see price pull down towards our anticipated buy zone of around 101.850 price, this is where we would find support amongst a few timeframes, aligning with our confluence zone. Same bias as yesterday, until we see a break of this area of consolidation.
NASDAQ: Bullish breakout is taking placeNasdaq is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.848, MACD = 196.930, ADX = 44.220) and that shows the strong upside that the 1H momentum has today. Technically it is on a similar situation like Sep 19th when it crossed over a Channel Up and made a +3.00% rise on the 2.0 Fib. A 1H Golden Cross is about to take place, so we think that is a strong buy entry to target a +3.00 rise (TP = 20,300).
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S&P 500 Analysis: Support Break and Potential RejectionWe’ve recently seen a strong break below support on the S&P 500. I anticipate that if we retest this support, which could turn into resistance, we might face a rejection at that level.
I’ll be closely watching price action and volume to assess the strength of this zone. Stay cautious!
S&P500: Identical so far with 2018/20. October rally possible.S&P500 just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.810, MACD = 53.820, ADX = 46.107) and that should give a new boost to the already bullish 1W timeframe (RSI = 63.805, MACD = 167.870, ADX = 40.687), which showcases the long term trend. And that long term price action can't be shown more effectively than on the 1W timeframe. We have spotted that the index is repeating the 2018-2020 trend.
Starting with a Channel Down under the 1D MA50, the index recovered massively and when it slowed down on a Channel Up, the 1W RSI turned ranged. We are now where the past fractal started rising aggressively again on the October 21st 2019 1W MACD Bullish Cross, as last week it completed a new such Cross. With the support of the 1W MA50, it is more likely now to see a strong rally to the 2.5 Fibonacci extension, where the 2020 fractal abruptly stopped with the COVID market meltdown, which is an event that can't be put into chart analysis.
This pattern shows that we have a clear target for early 2025 on the 2.5 Fib (TP = 6,500).
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