Fundamental Backdrop The Core Retail Sales m/m increased from -0.5% to 0.4% It shows that consumer spending has increased, leading to higher overall economic activity Technical Confluences Near term resistance at 102.800 Next resistance at 103.500 Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, we could see price head towards the...
Fundamental Backdrop The Trimmed CPI y/y dropped from 4.4% to 4.2%, which shows that inflation is dropping. This could lead the central bank to lower interest rates Technical Confluences Resistance at 1.35200 Support at 1.34100 Idea With the CAD expecting to weaken, I'm looking for price to possibly head back up to retest the resistance at...
Fundamental Backdrop The Claimant Count Change increased from 26.5K to 46.7K This shows that the number of unemployed people has increased, indicating the weakening economic health Technical Confluences Support at 1.24500 Idea With the fundamentals weaking the GBP, I'm expecting price to head towards the support at 1.24500 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE...
Fundamental Backdrop Inflation Expectations for NZD dropped from 3.30% to 2.79% q/q, causing AUD to drop from 0.68 to 0.668 last week. Wage Price Index q/q is expected to increase from 0.8% to 0.9% this week, which could lead to a stronger AUD. Employment Change is expected to drop by half and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain the same, indicating...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. Last week the AUD increased its Cash Rate from 3.60% to 3.85%. 2. It signals to the market that the economy is performing well and that inflation is likely to rise. 3. This can increase demand for Australian assets, such as bonds and equities, which in turn can lead to an increase in demand for the Australian dollar. Technical...
Confirm bullish wave on h1 . frame The golden zone of fibo is the area we need to wait. So what are we waiting for? Waiting for supply exhaustion - selling exhausted And when supply runs out. We continue to wait Waiting for buying - buyers join in Buy structure is formed, will find the ENTRY AREA and optimize the entry point on the m15 m5 frame. Details will be...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. Employment Change q/q which is a leading indicator of consumer spending increased from 0.5% to 0.8%. This shows that overall economic activity has increased. 2. Unemployment Rate maintained at 3.4% instead of the forecast of 3.5%. This shows that the overall economic health is stabilizing. Technical Confluences 1. Next resistance at...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. The CPI y/y was better than forecasted 10.1% VS 9.8% 2. A lower inflation rate, both on an annual and monthly basis, is generally perceived as positive for the currency because it indicates a stable economy with controlled prices, making it attractive for foreign investment. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term resistance at 1.25000 2....
Cup and Handle formed recently with CHF/JPY. The price broke above the brim level, and is showing strong momentum up. Other indicators confirm. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target 160.72 SMC: Sell Side Liquidity order block is below the Handle of the Cup and Handle. A little concern is that there is BUY side Liqudity (Shooting Star) as of today and yesterday. This means,...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. UK employment rate increased by 0.2% which indicates a growing workforce and potential for increased economic output. 2. Payrolled employees increased by 31,000 in March 2023, indicating that businesses are hiring and expanding their operations. 3. Unemployment only increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% in December 2022 to February...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. The Empire State Manufacturing Index which is a leading indicator of economic health, is expecting to improve significantly from -24.6 to -17.7, we could see the DXY rise back up toward the 102 resistance level. 2. With the Unemployment Claims expecting to have almost no change, which could see the overall economic health stabalizing. 3....
Fundamental Backdrop 1. Last week, the Employment Change was better than expected which shows that consumer spending have improved. 2. The Unemployment Rate maintained at 3.5% which shows the economic health is stabilizing. 3. These news events caused the AUD to rise towards 0.68 key resistance level before dropping back down to 0.67 by the end of the week due...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. GDP m/m printed 0.0% compared to forecasted at 0.1%, which is worst than previous of 0.4% 2. It shows that the economy's health is decreasing 3. Based on previous data on Feb 10th 2023 where the GDP also dropped, we saw an estimated 100 pips drop within the day. Technical Confluences 1. Near-term support at 1.24550 Idea We are...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. The Employment Change which is a leading indicator of consumer spending, increased from 21.8k to 34.7k 2. Unemployment Rate maintained at 5.0% instead of increasing to the forecasted of 5.1% 3. This week's Overnight Rate is expected to maintain at 4.5%. Based on previous March 8th's data, we saw a drop of nearly 200 pips towards the end of...
Fundamental Backdrop 1. The RBA chose to hit a pause on its interest rates maintaining it at 3.60%. This marked the first pause since May of 2022. This is seen as Dovish. 2. It's increasingly dovish for the AUD, especially around the household sector. There are evidence that the combination of higher rates, high inflation, and falling house prices are leading to...
Hey traders, here is the analysis for the EURUSD. If you guys like my analysis please hit like👍 and follow. Thanks. DISCLAIMER:- This is not financial advice.
Fundamental Backdrop 1. The upcoming Cash Rate on Tuesday is expected to increase from previous 3.60% to 3.85% 2. This could cause a roughly 75-150 pip drop based on past data if the RBA statement is seen as Dovish. Technical Confluences 1. Price reflected off resistance at 0.67400 2. Near-term support at 0.66400 3. Next support below at 0.66000 Idea If the...
Hey traders, here is the analysis for the EURUSD. If you guys like my analysis please hit like👍 and follow. Thanks. DISCLAIMER:- This is not financial advice.