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IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/08]: IO Prices Extend UptrendSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 1.30/ton higher by 21/Feb (Fri). SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.95/ton on 17/Feb (Mon) and closed at USD 107.25/ton on 21/Feb (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.30/ton on 21/Feb (Fri) and a low of USD 104.20/ton on 17/Feb (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 5.10/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week. Prices crossed the pivot point of USD 106.85/ton and R1 point of USD 108.10/ton during the week, closing between the R1 point and the pivot point at USD 107.25/ton. Volume peaked on 20/Feb (Thu) as investor sentiment improved amid signs of recovery in China’s property sector. Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary Prices climbed to their highest levels in more than four months as steel consumption recovery signs brightened demand outlook in top consumer China, where stimulus hopes have revived. Prices also surged as supply tightened after an Australian cyclone Zelia likely disrupted seven million tons of shipments. BHP and Rio Tinto reported weaker earnings due to falling iron ore prices but emphasized their strong position in the energy transition, particularly through copper assets. While the recent price rally provides temporary relief for major miners like Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, and Vale, they face significant short- and long-term risks. China's port IO stockpiles dropped by 0.78 million tons (-0.52%) WoW to 149.18 million tons for the week ending 21/Feb as per MMI data. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Mar contract trades 16.33% below its last 5-year average (USD 129.66/ton). Short-Term MA Sustains Bullishness amid Strong Industrial Outlook Formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) triggered a rally in iron ore with prices rising 5.2% over three weeks before losing steam on 14/Feb. Following tentative signs of China's property sector recovery, iron ore prices regained upward momentum this week. Prices Trend Upwards Amid Potential Long-term Moving Average Convergence IO prices are trading well above 100-day & 200-day DMAs. The narrowing gap between the long-term moving averages suggests a high possibility of convergence which could further confirm the uptrend. Will prices revert towards longer-term averages or sustain their upward trajectory? MACD Signals Weakening Bullish Momentum, RSI Cross Portends Bears Ahead The MACD line is near the signal line suggesting weakening momentum of the bullish trend. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 57.59, at neutral levels as it hovers around the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 59.65. RSI MA forming a death-cross portends bearishness ahead. Volatility Steady & IO Prices Closed Below 61.8% Fibonacci Level Amid Uptrend Volatility remained steady this week. Prices traded between the 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) and the 50% level (USD 105.40/ton), closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Going forward, 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.65/ton) may act as resistance, with 50.0% Fibonacci level (USD 105.40/ton) as support. Buying Pressure Softened & IO Prices Trade Below Upper Bollinger Band Levels Buying pressure softened during second half of last week based on A/D indicator. IO prices climbed from the basis band to the upper band during the week and closed within the range at USD 107.25. China’s Two Sessions: A Key Catalyst for Iron Ore Market Swings? China's Two Sessions (Lianghui) is an annual political gathering in China where key economic and industrial policies are set. This can significantly impact China linked assets including iron ore. Over the past four years (2021-2024), prices have shown a pattern of pre-meeting speculation-driven gains, followed by declines due to policy interventions or cautious economic targets. While 2021 and 2022 saw initial optimism fueling price spikes before corrections, 2023 and 2024 featured steady declines amid weak demand and rising inventories. This trend underscores China's policy direction as a key driver of iron ore market fluctuations. Source: SGX IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 101.6k lots and 81.4k across all futures expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 142.7k and 40.3k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures open interest was 1,101,024 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 984,935 lots as of 07/Feb. Source: SGX IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed Money participants are net long with 102.3k lots and 90.9k across all futures and options expiries. Physicals participants and Others are net short with 145.8k and 47.4k lots respectively across all futures and options expires. Managed Money increased net long positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures and options open interest was 1,370,376 lots as of 14/Feb, while it was 1,234,295 lots as of 07/Feb. Source: SGX Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the past month. Managed Money participants have switched from net short to being net long in the last two weeks. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of last year. Source: SGX Hypothetical Trade Setup IO prices surged to a four-month high, driven by a brighter China steel demand outlook amid renewed stimulus hopes. This mirrors past trends where economic support hopes drove pre-session gains in 2021 & 2022. Current rally signals renewed optimism of stronger policy support from Two Sessions. IO prices sustained uptrend last week save a pull back on Friday T+1 session. The MACD signals weakening bullishness while the RSI MA formed a death-cross portending bearishness ahead. IO prices rose from above 50% Fibonacci levels to close marginally below 61.8% levels indicating signaling bullishness. Against this backdrop, this paper posits a long position in SGX Iron Ore Futures expiring on 28th March 2025 (FEFH2025) with an entry at USD 106.20/ton combined with a take profit level at USD 111.60/ton and a stop-loss at USD 101.70/ton resulting in a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.2x. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Long
by MintBulkCommods
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/06]: Correction Looms SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 2.25/ton higher by 07/Feb (Fri). SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.05/ton on 03/Feb (Mon) and closed at USD 107.30/ton on 07/Feb (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 107.50/ton on 07/Feb (Fri) and a low of USD 102.00/ton on 03/Feb (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 5.50/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week. Prices traded between the pivot point of USD 105.35 and S1 point of 103.85 throughout the week, crossing the R1 point of USD 107.20/ton on Fri and closing above it. Volume peaked on 07/Jan (Fri) with volume increasing significantly compared to the previous week levels. Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary Dalian iron ore futures reached a four-month high, posting strong weekly gains. The recovery was driven by steel mills resuming production, increased activity in the property sector, and rising Chinese equities after the Lunar New Year. China filed a WTO complaint against new U.S. tariffs and urged dialogue. While trade tensions remain a concern, steel-related commodities continued to rise, with steelmaking ingredients and Shanghai Futures Exchange benchmarks posting strong gains. Iron ore futures rebounded as a softer U.S. dollar (-0.4%) made commodities more affordable for global buyers. Additionally, Rio Tinto cleared ships from Western Australian ports due to cyclone threats, adding a risk premium to prices. China's port IO stockpiles rose by 4.63 million tons (+3.19%) WoW to 149.91 million tons for the week ending 07/Feb per MMI data. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Mar contract trades 17.3% below its last 5-year average (USD 125.16/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bullish Trend, But Correction Looms Formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) followed by upward trend for three weeks indicating that the bullishness may sustain in the near term. Prices are trading above both the short-term moving averages. Long-Term Averages Indicate Convergence of Moving Averages IO prices crossed and closed significantly above the 200-day DMA. Signaling a strengthening bullish trend as prices beats the 200-day DMA, with a probability of convergence between long-term moving averages. MACD Signals Bullish Momentum; RSI Inching Towards Overbought Zone The MACD signals a positive momentum starting from 14/Jan with growing bullishness observed last week. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 65.08, is inching towards the overbought zone and it hovers above the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 60.97. Volatility Rose, Price Closed Above 50% Fibonacci Level Volatility gained upward momentum late in the week. Prices traded between the 38.2% Fibonacci level (USD 103.10/ton) and the 61.8% level (USD 107.62/ton), closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Going forward, 61.8% Fibonacci level (USD 107.62/ton) may act as resistance, with 50.0% Fibonacci level (USD 105.36/ton) as support. Buying Pressure Intensified, Price Trading Near the Upper-Bollinger Bands Buying pressure has intensified in the later part of the week according to the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator. The price is trading between the upper-volume node and basis-volume node, closing the week near the upper-volume node. IO Prices Rise Towards CNY & Then Decline Thereafter Between 2021 & 2024, SGX IO futures prices have risen leading up to the Chinese New Year before tapering off ten trading days after the holiday. Prices declined before & after CNY holidays only in 2024 while prices continued to rise even after CNY before falling sharply in 2021 & 2022. A similar trend was observed in the ten-day period leading up to CNY 2025. IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) are net long with 136.6k lots across all futures expiries. Managed Money participants, Physicals participants and Others are net short with 15.5k, 103.5k and 17.3k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed Money decreased net short positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures open interest was 1,179,418 lots as of 31/Jan stood at lots (-3.5%) while it was 1,222,981 lots as of 24/Jan. Source: SGX IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) are net long with 133.2k lots across all futures & options expiries. Managed Money participants, Physicals participants and Others are net short with 7.0k, 106.9k and 19.2k lots respectively across all futures and options expires. Managed Money decreased net short positions, Physicals increased net short positions while FIs decreased net long positions last week. Overall futures and options open interest was 1,421,263 as of 31/Jan stood at lots (-5.2%) while it was 1,499,318 lots as of 24/Jan. Source: SGX Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the last three weeks. Managed Money participants have maintained net short positions for the past month. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of this year. Source: SGX Hypothetical Trade Setup Prices are currently trading above short-term moving averages and significantly above both long-term moving averages, hovering near the upper Bollinger Band, which suggests potential resistance at these levels. Historical trends indicate a pattern of price declines in the last three days of the 10-day period following the Chinese Lunar New Year, a movement that could potentially repeat this year. While managed money participants have reduced their short positions over the past two weeks, signaling a more optimistic outlook, we take a contrarian view and recommend a short position strategy this week, anticipating a potential price correction from current levels. The hypothetical trade setup involves entering a short position at USD 107.6/ton with a take profit level at USD 104.3/ton combined with a stop loss at USD 109.0/ton resulting in a 2.35x reward-to-risk ratio. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
$AAL ANGLO AMERICAN: ROCK SOLID OR CRACKING UNDER PRESSURE?💥 ANGLO AMERICAN: ROCK SOLID OR CRACKING UNDER PRESSURE? Is Anglo American ( LSE:AAL ) a hidden gem 💎 or just another miner struggling with the weight of falling revenues and shaky markets? Let’s break it down with real data and fresh insight! 👇 1/ Revenue collapse? Yep. FY 2024 revenue plummeted 📉 12.72% from £35.12B to £30.65B. Net income: Crashed 93.73%, from £4.51B to a measly £283M. 💸 EPS tanked 93.70%, but Q4 production of copper and iron ore beat expectations. 📊 2/ What’s Anglo’s Plan? 🤔 They're reshaping their portfolio with a $4.9B growth strategy. Restructuring, asset sales, and potential Amplats spinoffs are on the table. The big question: Can these moves revive profitability? 🔄 3/ Undervalued or just stuck in the mud? 💲 Price today: 2,548.00p Analyst target: 2,629.29p—modest upside, but deeper models say 32% undervaluation based on recovery potential. 📈 What would you do? Buy the dip, or wait it out? 🤔 4/ How’s it doing vs. competitors? 🏆 Compared to BHP, Rio Tinto, and Glencore: Anglo shows mixed performance—some production wins, but revenue and earnings are lagging. Competitors have been quicker to capitalize on demand for metals like iron ore and copper. 5/ The Risk Factor ☠️: Commodity price swings: When metals drop, so does Anglo. 💣 Operational risks: Labor shortages and regulatory headaches, especially in South Africa 🇿🇦 and Brazil 🇧🇷. Environmental scrutiny: Mining faces rising costs tied to sustainability 🌱 and compliance. 6/ SWOT Analysis 💡 Strengths: ✅ Diversified portfolio (metals crucial to green tech) ✅ Global reach and strong infrastructure Weaknesses: ⚠️ Earnings decline, revenue underperformance ⚠️ Vulnerability to commodity volatility 7/ Opportunities vs. Threats: Opportunities: 🚀 Metals demand will grow with green energy transitions—think electric vehicles and renewables. 🚀 Strategic asset divestitures could unlock value. Threats: 🌍 Political instability in major regions 🌍 Tightening environmental regulations (higher costs ahead) 8/ Investment Thesis: Anglo is in a tough spot. Undervalued? Maybe. But recovery depends on commodity prices and restructuring success. 🛠️ If they nail their strategy, there’s upside potential—but risk is high in today’s market. 📉 9/ What’s next? 🔮 Keep an eye on restructuring news—asset sales could shift market sentiment. Monitor production trends in copper and iron ore. Look out for green tech demand driving metals growth over the long term. 🌱 10/ What do YOU think? 📈 Bullish: It’s gonna recover. 🔄 Hold: Let’s wait for more signs. 🚫 Bearish: Nope, this one’s toast.
LSE:AALLong
by DCAChampion
1
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/50]: Stimulus Rally FizzlesSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in Jan 2025 rose last week closing USD 1.95/ton higher by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 102.85/ton on 09/Dec (Mon) and closed at USD 104.80/ton on 13/Dec (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 107.30/ton on 10/Dec (Tuesday) and a low of USD 102.55/ton on 09/Dec (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 4.75/ton during the week which was wider than the prior week. Prices tested the R2 pivot point on 10/Dec (Tue) but failed to pass the level. Price maintained support above the R1 pivot point of 104.75 till the end of the week. Volume peaked on 10/Dec (Tue) driven by the expanded stimulus announcement in China. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary IO started the week on a positive note with prices rallying 3% on 09/Dec (Mon) driven by news of expanded stimulus expected to arrive from the Central Economic Work Conference in China. Despite the rally on 09/Dec (Mon), economic releases on the day showed CPI declining 0.6% MoM (-0.4% E and -0.3% P) during November. Annual CPI also decelerated to 0.2% (0.5% E and 0.3% P) suggesting that the economy continues to be plagued by low domestic consumption. On 13/Dec (Fri), further economic data from China showed new loans decline 47% YoY to 580 billion yuan in November. Although the figure was 16% higher MoM, the annual decline shows low loan demand. Particularly, new housing and housing related loans remain subdued signaling a potential headwind to IO prices. On 12/Dec (Thu), China officially announced it would increase the budget deficit, issue more debt, and loosen monetary policy to stimulate the economy and maintain a stable economic growth rate. There were also reports that Chinese policymakers were considering allowing the Yuan to weaken next year to combat punitive trade measures expected from the US. Iron Ore imports to China fell 1.9% MoM in November to 101.862 million tons. The figure remains 3.9% higher YoY with the YTD figure 4.3% higher. Iron ore imports are expected to rebound in December. Iron Ore portside inventories rose by 820k tons WoW to 146.66 million tons according to data from SMM. The increase was driven by a significant increase in port arrivals which offset a smaller increase in pickup volume. Maintenance may lead to a further buildup next week. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Jan contract trades 14.6% below its last 5-year average (USD 121.73/ton). Seasonal trends suggest a rally in the coming weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average headed higher due to the rally at the start of last week. The price decline in the later part of the week led to a reversal as the 9-day MA is now curving downwards and approaching the 21-day moving average. Long-Term Averages Signal Retest of 200-day MA Price tested the 200-day moving average once again last week and managed to surpass it for some time before reversing and heading lower once again. Price remains well above the 100-day moving average which may provide support in case of a decline. MACD Points to Fading Rally Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.67 signals a neutral level. However, RSI has continued to trend lower since it signaled a crossover with its MA late last week. MACD is narrowing from its positive level and is close to marking a bearish crossover between the 12-day and 26-day MA which could signal a period of decline. Volatility Rebounds from 1Y Low, Fibonacci 50% Signals Resistance Volatility rebounded from its 1Y low last week to edge slightly higher to 19.19. Though, volatility still remains muted. Last week, prices retested the 50% Fibonacci level at USD 105.4/ton once more which continues to act as resistance. Chart Signals Flat Top Pattern The IO futures chart signals a flat top technical pattern with prices having tested the USD 107/ton level multiple times. The lower and of the range shows a widening channel which could suggest a lower low than previously seen in mid-November. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices surged early last week but gave up some gains by the end of the week. Prices retested its resistance levels once more but were rejected. Price also significantly lags the seasonal trend suggesting that the end-year seasonal rally may not materialize this year. Last week’s stimulus announcement failed to provide long-lasting momentum to the rally and prices are trending lower once more at the start of the week. The declining flat top chart pattern suggests that prices could head lower this time around. This provides a favorable entry for a short position in Iron Ore. However, given significant support levels above that, it may be prudent to choose a slightly higher target. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO January Futures Contract at USD 105.00/ton with a stop at USD 108/ton and target at USD 100/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67x. Each lot of SGX IO Futures Contract provides exposure to 100 tons of iron ore. For each lot, the hypothetical trade would result in gain of USD 500/lot ((105 – 100) x 100) while exposing the trade to a loss of USD 300/lot. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,188/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,080/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/49]: Near Term Bearish Trend SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in Jan 2025 fell last week closing USD 1.85/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 104.4/ton on 02/Dec (Mon) and closed at USD 102.55/ton on 06/Dec (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 105.70/ton on 04/Dec (Wed) and a low of USD 102.25/ton on 06/Dec (Fri). It traded in a range of USD 3.45/ton during the week. Prices traded above the pivot point for most of the week but did not manage to pass the R1 weekly pivot point of USD 106.05/ton. Price dipped below the pivot point of USD 103.20/ton on 06/Dec (Fri) Volume peaked on 04/Dec (Wed). Fundamentals in Summary Caixin’s China manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in November from 50.3 in the prior month, above analyst expectations of a 50.6 reading and the highest reading since June. PMI data has shown a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector over the past 3 months reflecting improved demand following the stimulus announcement. Caixin China non-manufacturing PMI eased to 51.5 from 52 reflecting a slowdown in the service sector. This week, traders will be watching for the CPI release for November on 9/Dec (Mon). In October, CPI fell 0.3% MoM and eased to 0.3% YoY, its lowest reading since June reflecting continued struggles in domestic demand. The annual Central Economic Work Conference is scheduled for 11/Dec (Wed) where leaders are expected to map out economic targets and stimulus plans. Rumors that a higher-than-usual deficit target for 2025 could be set spurred a rally in Chinese stocks last week. IO China Portside inventories fell by 100k tons to 150.4 million tons in the week ending 6/Nov, extending its decline from the prior week according to data from the CISA. Elevated inventory levels could limit demand for further imports. SMM expects construction to enter its traditional off-season in December with no new projects scheduled for now. However, several major central government meetings and the year-end housing project delivery remain key events to watch and could catalyze a rally. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Jan contract trades 13.4% below its last 5-year average (USD 118.94/ton). Seasonal trends suggest a rally in the coming weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Fading Bullish Trend While the 9-day moving average has remained above the 21-day MA since marking a bullish MA crossover on 29/Nov, the price decline in the later part of last week drove price below the 9-day MA and it has started to flatten suggesting the rally may be losing steam. Price trades above the 21-day MA which could serve as a support level. Long-Term Averages Signal Reversal from 200-day MA Price tested the 200-day moving average last week but the level acted as resistance with price failing to pass it. Price remains well above the 100-day MA at 100.31. However, if the 21-day MA fails to provide support, this level could be tested next. MACD Points to Fading Rally Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.04 signals a neutral level. However, the RSI marked a crossover with its MA suggesting the price could face a period of negative returns. MACD is narrowing from its positive level and is close to marking a bearish crossover between the 12-day and 26-day MA which could signal a period of decline. Volatility Eases to 1Y Low, Fibonacci 50% Signals Resistance Volatility continued to decline and reached its lowest level in more than a year. Last week, prices retested the 50% Fibonacci level at USD 105.4/ton once more which has previously acted as resistance. With price declining, it could suggest a continuation of the bearish trend following the rejection at the Fibonacci level. Prices at Top End of Declining Channel Prices have traded in a declining parallel channel following the stimulus driven rally in late-September. Prices are currently just below the top end of the parallel channel which could represent a favorable entry level for a short position. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices reversed the early week gains last week to end the week lower. 12-day and 26-day MA are close to signaling a bearish crossover following the price rejection at the 200-day moving average last week. This could signal a near-term bearish trend. With prices at the top end of a declining channel, this could provide a favorable entry for a short position. However, given the low volatility and the strong support at USD 100/ton, the decline could be smaller than previous weeks. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO January Futures Contract at USD 103/ton with a stop at USD 105.5/ton and target at USD 100/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.2x. Each lot of SGX IO Futures Contract provides exposure to 100 tons of iron ore. For each lot, the hypothetical trade would result in gain of USD 300/lot ((103 – 100) x 100) while exposing the trade to a loss of USD 250/lot. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,188/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,080/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEFF2025Short
by MintBulkCommods
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/44]: Set For Large Move SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) expiring in December rose last week, up by USD 0.54/ton on Friday, though prices gave up some gains by the end of the week. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.60/ton on 28/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 102.14/ton on 01/Nov (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 104.60/ton on 29/Oct (Tue) and a low of USD 101.30/ton on 28/Oct (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 3.30/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded just above the pivot point of USD 103.70/ton for most of the week before falling below it on Friday. Volumes were noticeably lower in the later part of the week. Highest volume was observed on 30/Oct (Wed). SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary China’s parliament has started its five-day meeting on 4/Nov (Mon) and is expected to announce the details of the fiscal support on 8/Nov (Fri). Analysts suggest the fiscal plan could reach 10 trillion yuan (USD 1.4 trillion), with most funds likely allocated to refinancing local government debt. The outcome is likely to drive significant volatility during the week. China’s manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.1 in Oct as the manufacturing sector shifted into expansion after 5 months of contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2 from 50.0. Steel industry PMI rose to 54.6 from 49 in prior month. The PMI reading was the highest since July 2018. The output index rose to 63.6 suggesting the stimulus helped boost steel production. Caxin’s China manufacturing PMI rose from 49.3 to 50.3 in October recovering from the dip in September. IO China Portside inventories rose by 770k tons to 150.1 million tons last week. The pickup volume declined further by 13k tons. Accumulating inventories pose a risk to IO demand. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Dec contract trades 3.6% higher than its last 5-year average (USD 99.31/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Bearish Trend Prices recovered following the bearish MA crossover on 22/Oct but failed to rise above the 21-day moving average. The 21-day moving average served as a resistance level throughout last week. Long-Term Averages Provide Support Prices shot above the 100-day moving average on 28/Oct (Mon) and managed to hold above this level for the rest of the week. Price re-tested this support level on 4/Nov (Mon) but seems to be holding above it for now. MACD Points to Fading Decline The MACD suggests a weakening bearish trend, with the short-term MA positioned just below the long-term MA. However, both MAs are trending downward, making a bullish crossover unlikely without a sharp rally. The long-term MA may serve as support. The RSI is near a neutral level at 51.02. Fibonacci 38.2% Tested Last Week Following the retracement of the bearish trend since the start of October, prices rallied to the 38.2% Fib level but failed to surpass it. This could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend. Though, the USD 100/ton level may provide psychological support. Price Trading Just Below Volume Point of Control Sellers continued to dominate trading despite an uptick in buyers early last week. Price faced resistance at the volume point of control for October (USD 103.55/ton). There is another area of volume concentration at (USD 101.15/ton) which could provide near-term support. Bollinger Bands Narrowing with Low Volatility Bollinger Bands for IO futures are narrowing and their width is near the lowest contraction since August, increasing the likelihood of a sharp breakout. Price is currently at the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Historical Volatility also continued to decline last week and reached its lowest level since August. Iron Ore Options Favor Calls SGX IO options expiring in December have an OI put/call ratio of 0.86 as of 1/Nov which favors calls. Over the past week, trading in this contract was heavily skewed towards call with a volume put/call ratio of 0.38. Additionally, last week, near-term options expiring in November saw a large buildup of call options around the USD 105 strike suggesting bullish sentiment in the near-term. The delta-25 options skew for December options also shows a sharp increase in call IV alongside a narrowing skew suggesting high demand for calls. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore volatility has reached its lowest level since August. The rally last week failed to continue past the short-term moving average and the volume profile point of control and IO gave up substantial gains in the later part of the week despite the encouraging data from PMI releases. The results of the ongoing parliamentary meeting are expected on 9/Nov (Fri) and are likely to drive substantial moves in prices. Options activity over the last week showed a high concentration of activity for call options, especially at the strike level of USD 105/ton. The IV for IO options has also been rising unlike the historical volatility. A sharp upside move is likely, though, if the fiscal stimulus disappoints, prices may also decline sharply. Expressing the bullish view through a long futures exposes the position to higher risk if stimulus disappoints. Investors can instead express the bullish view using SGX IO options. A bullish call spread benefits from an increase in prices and offers a fixed upside and fixed downside along with a smaller premium cost than a long call position. Bullish call spread consists of long call at a lower strike and short call at a higher strike. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of USD 105/ton for the long call leg and USD 109/ton for the short call leg on the options contract expiring on 31/Dec offers a reward to risk ratio of 3x. The USD 109/ton level coincides with the peak during the last rally in mid-October and is close to the 200-day moving average, prices could face resistance above this level. This position offers a max profit of USD 299/lot and a max loss of USD 101/lot and breaks even when prices rise above USD 106.1/ton. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Long
by MintBulkCommods
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/43]: Term Structure Divergence SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) closed nearly flat last week, down by just USD 0.10/ton on Friday after recovering from a mid-week decline. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 101.65/ton on 21/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.55/ton on 25/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 103.45/ton on 21/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 98.10/ton on 24/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 5.35/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 103.35/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 97.65. Volume peaked on 25/Oct (Fri) as Iron Ore prices rallied from near their low following the announcement of a parliamentary meeting to discuss the stimulus package between 4/Nov and 8/Nov. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Iron Ore received support in the later part of the week from the announcement of a parliamentary meeting to discuss the stimulus package in China which will take place between 4/Nov and 8/Nov. The People's Bank of China also said in a statement it had activated the open market outright reverse repo operations facility to "maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity in the banking system and further enrich the central bank's policy toolbox“ ahead of a significant loan expiry at the end of the year. IO China Portside inventories declined by 400k tons to 149.33 million tons last week. The decline was driven by slower arrivals as pickup volume declined week on week and steel mill’s restocking pace was below analyst expectations. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 2.6% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal Trend also suggests a price low is expected in the next few weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend Prices began the week on a downward trend, marked by a bearish moving average (MA) crossover on 22/Oct (Tue). After the crossover, prices declined 3%, briefly dipping just above the S1 Pivot Point before recovering sharply on 25/Oct (Fri). On 28/Oct (Mon), prices are trading slightly below the 21-day moving average and the R1 Pivot Point for the week. Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Last week, the price traded below the 100-day moving average, closing just under this level. On 28/Oct (Mon), it rose sharply above the 100-day moving average but remains about 5% below the 200-day moving average. MACD Points to Fading Decline, RSI Trending Higher MACD indicates that the bearish trend is weakening, with the short-term MA beginning to curve upward toward the long-term MA. This suggests a potential consolidation around the long-term MA or a bullish crossover if momentum strengthens. Meanwhile, the RSI recently crossed above its 14-day average but remains near the midpoint at 53.84. Fibonacci 61.8% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility increased throughout the week but remains below early October levels. Last week, the price tested and held support at the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the prior uptrend. Fib levels from the recent downtrend suggest that the price may next retest the 38.2% level. The 61.8% level remains noteworthy, as it has previously acted as a key area of interest. Low-Volume Node May Drive Sharp Upward Move Despite ongoing selling pressure, buyers rebounded sharply in the latter part of the week. The price is currently at a low-volume node and could rise quickly toward the point of control, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci level. Calendar Spread Shows Deviation from Backwardation The recent price movement has created a premium on the April 2025 contract compared to the second-month contract (Nov 2024). A return to the usual backwardation structure is expected. Additionally, speculation over the next two weeks, driven by the upcoming parliamentary meeting, will likely focus on the more liquid Nov 2024 contract, which should further support the spread. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices received some support from the announcement of further monetary easing and hopes of further stimulus at the parliamentary meeting next week. The rally has reversed the consistent decline in IO over the past 3 weeks but outlook remains bearish as the impact of stimulus on prices has weakened since early October. In the near-term, stimulus expectations may drive a rally clouding the outlook for a straightforward short position. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of buying SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 102.90/ton and selling the SGX IO April 2025 Futures contract at USD 103.60/ton to capitalize on the normalization of the backwardated term structure. Presently the Nov/April ratio is at 0.99324. An increase to 1.025 presents a 3.25% increase in the spread which results in a gain of USD 321 to USD 330. A stop loss at the ratio of 0.975 protects in case of further decline with a potential loss of USD 189 to USD 194. This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 320/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 352/lot for this intra-commodity spread. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEFX2024Long
by MintBulkCommods
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/42]: IO Reversal Deepens SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) fell last week for a second week in a row, closing USD 4.15/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.85/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.05/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 99.30/ton on 17/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 9.75/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 108.10/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 101.15. Volume peaked on 17/Oct (Thu) as Iron Ore prices declined despite the announcement of expanded housing stimulus measures. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Further measures to support the housing industry in China were announced on 17/Oct (Thu). The measures included widened support under the “white list” program to 4 trillion Yuan. PBoC started the week with a 25 bps cut to the 5-year loan prime rate and a 25 basis point cut to the 1-year loan prime rate offering additional easing measures. Despite an early rally, IO pared gains by the end of the day. China's GDP growth in Q3 was 0.9%, falling short of analyst expectations but exceeding the 0.5% growth recorded in Q2, which was revised downward. Annual GDP growth reached 4.6%, significantly below the 5% target. IO China Portside inventories rose by 1.89M tons to 149.73 million tons last week. The increase was driven by significantly higher arrivals and low pace of pickup due to slower restocking. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 3.5% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal performance also suggests there could be a price dip with a low in the next couple of weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average is continuing its downward trend and marked a bearish crossover on 21/Oct (Mon). Last week, the price held support above the S1 pivot point but faced rejection at the P pivot point on 21/Oct (Mon). Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Price fell below the 100-day moving average on 17/Oct (Thu). Despite reaching highs above this level, price has failed to close above the MA. MACD Points to Downturn, RSI Flat MACD signals an ongoing bearish trend since 16/Oct (Wed) with the distance between long and short-term MA continuing to expand as of 21/Oct (Mon). RSI is at the mid-point level of 49.5 signaling neutral trend. Volatility Eases, Fibonacci 50% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility briefly edged up in the middle of last week but now continues to decline and has reached the lowest level in October. The 50% Fibonacci level was tested last week but managed to maintain support. With a continued downward trend, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 97.55 is the next major support level to watch if price declined below 50%. Selling Pressure Dominates, Price Gap Likely to be Tested This Week Heavy selling pressure dominates IO trading according to the Accumulation/Distribution indicator (A/D). Price trades at a high volume node which was dominated by sell volume and below a low volume valley which could be tested during the week. The bullish flag failed to maintain last week as prices fell further instead of consolidating. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices continued to decline last week as the expanded stimulus measures disappointed market expectations once again. Bearish trend in IO continues as fundamentals signal more pain in store and short-term MA signaled a bearish crossover. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 101.2/ton with a stop at USD 104.05/ton and target at USD 97.5/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.30x. Entry: USD 101.2/ton Target: USD 104.05/ton Stop Loss: USD 97.5/ton Profit at Target: USD 370/lot ((101.2-97.5) x 100) Loss at Stop: USD 285/lot ((101.2-104.05) x 100) Reward to Risk: 1.30x This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,232/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,120/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
2
China Property Stimulus to Boost Aus200 IndexThe recent announcement of a stimulus package by the Chinese government to boost the property sector is expected to have a positive impact on the Australian stock market, particularly the Aus200 index. The stimulus package includes measures such as lower down payments for home purchases and tax breaks for developers. These measures are expected to increase demand for property in China, which will in turn benefit Australian companies that export goods and services to the Chinese market. In addition, the stimulus package is also expected to boost the Chinese economy, which is Australia's largest trading partner. A stronger Chinese economy will mean more demand for Australian goods and services, which will support corporate profits and earnings growth. As a result, the Aus200 index is expected to rise in the coming months. Of course, there are also some risks associated with the China property stimulus. If the stimulus is too successful, it could lead to an overheating of the Chinese economy and a resurgence of inflation. This would be negative for Australian companies that export to China, as it would make their goods and services less competitive. However, at this stage, it appears that the risks are outweighed by the potential rewards. Overall, the China property stimulus is a positive development for the Australian stock market. The stimulus is expected to boost demand for Australian goods and services, support corporate profits and earnings growth, and lift the Aus200 index.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by SabahEquityResearch
1
CIA ~ Snapshot TA / Psychotic Yo-Yo YOLO (Weekly Chart)Title pretty much sums up Champion Iron's recent price action lol. Reminds me of similar movements exhibited in Mineral Resources chart before getting pumped after diversifying into Lithium. Held onto a trend-line that's been running since 2015, crazy. Appears ~$8 is established resistance level, as it continues to put in Higher Lows off trend-line while 200DMA climbs higher to act as dynamic support/confluence.. ASX:CIA ASX:MIN
ASX:CIALong
by BlueHatInvestor
Iron Ore Futures ~ Snapshot TA / Coiling like a Steel RollIron Ore Futures coiling like a steel roll in a series of Lower Highs & Higher Lows since October 2022. Break above 116.60 = Bullish momentum towards 134.85 (38.2% Fib Retracement) Break below 99.40 = Bearish momentum towards 77.60 (78.6% Fib Extension) Seasonality typically favours the Bulls running strong into end of year - we'll see if it still rings true this year, given China's current economic woes.. Boost/Follow appreciated. Futures: SGX:FEF1! SGX:FEF2! COMEX:TIO1! COMEX:TIO2! ASX: ASX:BHP ASX:RIO ASX:FMG ASX:MIN ASX:CIA NYSE: NYSE:VALE
SGX:FEF2!Long
by BlueHatInvestor
Iron ore hits record-low as demand drops By the end of 2022, the price of iron ore is expected to hit their lowest level in three or four years as global demand for the commodity continues to slow down, particularly from China, the world's largest consumer of iron ore. In recent years, China has been cutting down its iron ore demand especially after the government placed restrictions on the industry to reduce carbon emissions. In 2021, the country's iron ore import fell to 1.12 billion tons from 1.17 billion tons in the prior-year period. Expectations for 2022 from the production side are no better with Australia, the world's biggest exporter of iron ore, projecting a 0.6% drop in global steel output to 1.947 billion tons. "Combined with growing global recessionary fears, new COVID-19 outbreaks and weakness in China's housing sector have dampened world steel and iron ore demand in recent months," the Australian government said in its October quarterly report. A Reuters survey in October showed that prices are expected within the $90/ton to $115/ton range by the end of the year. MetalMiner data shows the price in early 2022 were at $160.30/ton at the beginning of Russia's war against Ukraine. The decline comes despite forecasts of growth in the demand for iron ore through to 2026. The global market for iron ore is estimated to reach 2.7 billion metric tons, while production is expected to reach 3.17 billion metric tons. Until definite signs of recovery are observed, maybe it is best to err on the side of caution regarding iron ore prices, especially considering the threats of a recession in Europe and the persisting problems in China's property sector, which could heavily impact on the demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
SGX:FEF1!
by BlackBull_Markets
AUD/CAD 700 Pips Bargain: AUSSIE's Plight Deteriorates FurtherFundamentals : The China Factor : Australia's economy is intimately linked to trade with China. (1) China's lack of demand for iron ore as their economy undergoes a recession. " Disaster looming in Australian economy as iron ore demand falls " (Daily Telegraph: www.dailytelegraph.com.au ) www.imf.org fred.stlouisfed.org markets.businessinsider.com (2) Deterioration of China's economy due to a zero-covid strategy (3) China's property sector is cooling (4) Aussie's Housing data becomes " haunting ": stockhead.com.au Technicals : Past support becoming future resistance Weekly BBT Monthly BBT Hit Bollinger Band 2nd Deviation in a slightly ranging market with a downward slope Medium-term trend direction is downward dHd
Short
by Rocketman
SHORT FMGThanks for viewing Just a simple technical analysis of the share price of FMG assuming continued correction from all time highs. Mostly just based on the Iron ore price having lost 55% from 2021 highs and still being 50% (while FMG is only down only 28%) down presently. Mapped out some support / demand and resistance / supply zones. Thinking something around sub-$12 would be a good short-term target (although I expect a bounce at the $14 level). Also based on 1:1 extension of the deep correction and retrace and a 1.618 extension of what may be wave 1 & 2 of the last 5 waves down to complete the correction. They line up relatively closely, so it seems like a good spot. Price may push above the 200EMA before continuing correction, although near-term upside potentially $19.50. We will see. Fundamental... more and more speculation about the debt crisis unfolding in China in the property and banking sectors. We can never get the full picture. However, that combination of issues could seriously dent imports - especially construction steel. Increasing possibility that anecdotal evidence of a steep drop-off in residential construction in China is accurate. But, we don't have to speculate that far given the weakness in global iron ore prices. While FMG's cost of production is around $15 per ton it will clearly still be profitable, there will be less profit and earnings forecasts due later this month are lower than the previous Q1 and any further weakness in global iron ore prices will probably prompt at least some investors to sell up and continue the downside correction. Protect those funds.
ASX:FMGShort
by flyinkiwi10
2
A Kangaroo Hop!Things seem to be going well down under. With Iron Ore prices jumping close to 8% last week, Australia, the largest exporter of the raw material stands to benefit greatly. In 2021, Iron Ore exports totaled close to US$120 billion. This contributes greatly to the demand side pressure on the Australian dollar. Looking at the charts, the AUDUSD pair is currently trading at the bottom of the channel support on the 1-hr time frame. With the 200-period moving average right below current levels, we think downside resistance will prove strong and prices will bounce off the bottom of the rising channel quickly. Stay tuned to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting tomorrow and time your entry there! Assuming no surprises and the technical supports are intact, we favor the long side for the AUDUSD pair. Entry at 0.7190, stop below 0.712. Targets are 0.7346 and 0.7460. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6A1!Long
by inspirante
8