The graph follows the spread between Italian BTP 10Y and German BUND 10Y with a timeline of the Italian government's announcement and the European Commission responses
EURUSD has some bids in the 1.1430’s but pressure remains to the downside. Italy will submit their 2019 budget to European Commission today. Brussels is widely expected to reject the budget. Also, S&P will likely downgrade Italy this coming Friday.
With the EU still poised to reject the Italian budget, there's still room for downside movement in the FTSEMIB, which will also take it's cue from equity markets in Asia and the current risk off sentiment.
BTPs will continue to remain under pressure as the EU has rejected Italy's budget proposal and Draghi has also issued a warning. Italian spreads are soaring and bonds will come under intense scrutiny.
The main bullish trend has been broked the last few days and, since Oct 17, EURUSD headed towards 1.43 with 50 and 200 EMA that are close to crossing in the 1h chart. A crossing of the two would suggest a continuation of the already marked bear channel that could take the price to around 1.43. Such a target price could be supported by nowadays Eurozone issues...
The Italian Government sent the aggressive budget proposal to Brussels, with Finance Minister Tria suggesting he can "explain" things to EU counterparties and receive acceptance. Market participants know it's a long shot, and BTPs should come under more pressure.
Our bias on the Italian stock market continues to be short. The deadline for presenting an acceaptable budget to the EU is Oct. 15th, and no progress has been made. Italy still remains on an opposing foot and thus the markets are maintaining the pressure on Italian stocks.
Italian stocks are taking the hardest hit in Europe, on recent budget issues.
Italy continued to be a sticking point for European policymakers. Salvini and DiMaio are not collaborating and want a higher budget deficit for 2019 than the EU will allow. Deadline is October 15th.
EURAUD seems to be consolidating and not just this pair. Most EU Cross pairs seem to do the same too. This means Bulls and Bears are fighting at this point. Who might edged out a win? Watch my previous Post on my previous days analysis. Seems like most EUR traders are waiting for the ITALY BUDGET NEWS later on today at 16:00 G.M.T (12AM SGD TIME)...
Italy's populist government kept some of it's promises and delivered a hefty budget for 2019 ata deficit of 2.4%. Markets are pricing in more of a conflict between Italy and Brussels. THis move down has quite a ways to go.
Clash between EU and Italy becoming more evident as Italy Rating Outlook Cut by Fitch on Possible Fiscal Loosening but "Italians come before ratings agencies" deputy PM says - “We have to put the financing in the budget so that at least 5 million impoverished Italians can get back to work.”
90.00 might break soon, on the back of continued tension between Italy's populist government and the EU.
Recent comments from Italy's DiMaio continue to worry markets that a future clash is possible which will put yet another dent in the EU's cohesion.
Pay attention to the short/long-dated German vs US yield spreads, the risk environment, and the Italian vs German premium as the key drivers to gauge the next capital flows. For now, risk and the narrowing of the 10y spread rules price action, but a source of concern is Italy and 2-yr yield spreads, exhibiting a major divergence with the direction of EUR/USD. The...
This shows us how critical the situation is , and it is also among one of the contributing factors towards the weakening Euro(BTW the strong DXY isn't helping). This is a spread chart and shows us the divergence in yield between the two states. It gives us an idea as to how investors are pricing risk relative to a "risk-less counterpart" which in this case , it...
A chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Right now Italy doesn't look so good with capital flights and a weakening economy. On the technical side of things, price had a nice reaction with the lows which happens to be the all time lows in the Italian bonds. This is a place I'd look for longs but first , I'd need proof that buyers are still here.
hello guys here's a new idea on italy BTP. First of all, we saw recently that the market wants to speculate (again) on BTP, this means that interest rate until September will go down, then will rise due to rating agencies decision and what is called 'DEF', the document of economics and finance by the Government. In this document there'll be the outline of fiscal...