Italy's Deputy PM DiMaio confirms markets' fears: this morning he said that respecting fiscal rules is not the priority in the next budget. Until 94.00 is broken to the upside, pressure still remains. Better picture if we hold here below 93.00 and push towards 90.00 again.
Long FTSEMIB @ 21,368; TP @ 21795, SL your choice
Market participants are watching this move in BTPs today, as Northern League leader Salvini is asking for the resignation of Italy's Finance Minister Tria.
WE are expectin some retracement near 61% area + structure, so short. euro is pushing down by italy crisis, so we have technical + fundamental analisys. the last target is a open gap signaled in chart, maybe it will be filled.
Italian politicians are attempting to calm the markets. Today this seems to be working, and driving risk-on. Eyes on the key levels.
Italy is pushing Euro down, today we can see euro oversold in Weekly chart, but it can be only a "breath" , if it goes up can make Head and shoulders pattern, its close of a trendline that came from monthly chart since 2008. We can see one gap open and it must be filled, i'm looking for short in EURUSD, but after one more up movement.
After another negative close, stops can be trailed to 93.00 looking for 90.00 as a first target. Keep an eye on the Italian political agenda and on risk aversion which seems to be creeping in.
Yesterday we expected the Italian 10yr to break back through recent supports, after Conte's initial proposals on immigration, taxes, welfare seem to imply a decisive clash with Brussels. These measures would be good for the population, but EU will not allow them. Further downside is expected and 90.00 is the first target.
The Italian Government has started it's fight against Brussels. BTPs are responding and we may see further downside today.
Conte's League/MS5 Government would win a vote of confidence today. A clash with Brussels is only a matter of time. Markets a little nervous. A breach of key supports would open up the downside again.
According to reports in Italian media, parties across the political spectrum are trying to reach a deal to avoid snap elections. This has calmed markets for the time being, but price action is telling us this is just temporary.
Big moves and volatility expansion in Italian BTPs on the recent political turmoil. Bias remains down in the short term AND in the longer term.
Just like our EurUsd Idea, EurJpy may remain under pressure due to the political issues in Europe, alongside the already evident risk-off sentiment seen in Asia trade.
A combination of political issues in Italy & Spain could keep the lid on the Euro & it's crosses. Keep in mind yesterday's action was dominated by low-liquidity with UK & US away. Should be interesting.
As EU traders come back to their desks today it will be interesting to see what happens to the Euro. We bounced the first support zone 1700/20 yesterday and 1.1800 has acted as resistance. We need more information before making any further decisions. There is also the feeling that Italian political concerns are overdone. This all feels a bit premature - patience...
The 5 star movement is emerging as the largest party from the Italian election. The party’s direction is anti-establishment and anti-EU, which could spell further trouble for the EUR/USD. Looking for resistance of 1.2350 hold, with the downward move a higher probability.
Seems like there is a general market turnaround. Along with this ECB is slowing down the bond buying and Italy has an upcoming election which could be won by the 5 star movement. Tecnically it looks like it is about to turn and in a resistance area
UniCredit SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA could face combined losses of almost 20 million euros from the failure of Innowatio.