Here is a dual chart showing the weekly chart on top along with the daily chart below.
On the weekly chart, you can see how the price has remained within an ascending channel since the Christmas Eve low. The price recently hit and broke through the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension level in early September. The recent pullback has the price sitting right in-between the...
ITB Homebuilders 3x ETF, weekly chart has more room to run. Daily chart is ready for break out. Inverse H and S . LEN , KBH and DHI all had great earnings reports recently. Above $46.35 would be all time highs. The FED should be cutting rates again with the Oct 4th economic data, so more bullishness for homebuilders. Good luck!
Above the 40 (November 1, 2018) – An Extended Oversold Period Ends with Important Footnotes
November 1, 2018 by Dr. Duru
AT40 = 21.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ends an 11-day oversold period that followed a 4-day oversold period
AT200 = 32.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
AT40 = 11.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit an intraday low of 9.4%, oversold day #3)
AT200 = 32.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (intraday low of 30.0%)
VIX = 21.3 (a decrease of 14.7%)
Short-term Trading Call: bullish
AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their...
I saw a flicker of hope for home builders in the May Housing Market Review. Traders decided to snuff that flicker out very quickly afterward. When I wrote June’s housing market review and described a “struggling flicker,” the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was once again bouncing off the bottom of 2018’s trading range. Almost like a cycle, a month later...
AT40 = 33.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (was as low 31.9%)
AT200 = 47.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
VIX = 14.0 (was as high as 15.8)
Short-term Trading Call: neutral
The S&P 500 is only 1.0% off its all-time high, yet extremes and critical tests of support abound.
“KB Home shares jump on third quarter earnings” – such is the kind of quick trigger post earnings headline that consistently fails for home builders. KB Home (KBH) opened higher by 5.7% but was all downhill from there. At the close, KBH lost 3.1% on the day in a major reversal. This close was a vast improvement on a loss which reached 6.4% at the intraday low....
"Existing home sales continue to weaken and new home sales are not doing enough. Affordability issues are looming larger over the market."
Housing Market Review (August, 2018) - Worsening Affordability Issues Add to Weakening Data
"Toll Brothers finally got a strong post-earnings response and cut through some housing jitters. Still, the message has not changed."
Toll Brothers: Strong Financials, Buybacks...and Housing Jitters drduru.com $TOL #housingwatch
Alongside bearish trading action in builder stocks, July’s housing market data may have delivered confirmation of persistent investor fears.
"Housing Market Review – A Wobbly Edifice As Builders Break Down And Data Weaken" drduru.com $ITB $DHI $MTH $KBH $PHM $TOL $TPH #housingmarket #housingwatch...
A poor reaction to a hawkish Fed ended the overbought period at 2 days. The S&P 500 is now poised for a pullback.
A Fed Buzzkill Ends Ambitions for An Overbought Market drduru.com $SPY $QQQ #VIX #T2108 #AT40 $ITB $LEN $AAPL $TLT $DXY #forex
So with the FED hiking rates another .25 bps in June (96% odds as of right now) I am making a bearish trade in the home builder ETF. I have never traded through a rising rate environment so.......take it with a grain of salt. I am buying the 40 put in October and selling the 36 put in October for $1.12 This is a defined risk trade for a debit (not really the...
Housing Market Review (May, 2018) - A Fresh Flicker of Life As Sentiment Turns Without A Change in Data. The housing data continue to plod along but the market for home builder stocks is suddenly warming up all over again.
drduru.com $ITB $CCS $DHI $PHM $LEN $FPH $LGIH $MTH $XHB
Home builder stocks are starting to diverge as housing data decelerates. Investors are showing interesting preferences even as all builders continue to tell similar stories. For more....
Housing Market Review (April, 2018) - Dissonance: Decelerating Housing Data and Diverging Home Builder Stocks...
It falling out of its rising wedge with RSI diverging for quite some time. Might be a short candidate but we will wait a little longer for assurance (housing sector). Note RSI falling off and a negative MACD.