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$PLTR Basing Analysis: 3-Month Technical OutlookFor the past twelve weeks, NASDAQ:PLTR has been consolidating near its all-time high (ATH). This prolonged basing period has resulted in the formation of a distinctive wedging pattern, commonly known as a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP). This pattern, popularized by Mark Minervini, is characterized by decreasing price swings and tightening ranges. Technical Pattern and Implications The VCP that has emerged on NASDAQ:PLTR 's chart typically signals a potential continuation in the direction of the prevailing trend. In this instance, the trend leading into the pattern has been upward, suggesting that a breakout to the upside could be the most likely scenario. Trading Plan To prepare for a possible breakout, an alert has been set just below the horizontal resistance area. If this alert is triggered, the plan is to initiate a new position in anticipation of further upward movement. While price targets are not usually set, in this case, an estimated gain of approximately 18% is anticipated following a breakout. This projection is based on the depth of the pullback from the ATH. Risk Management and Disclaimer Readers are strongly encouraged to conduct their own analysis and to adhere to their personal trading rules. Investing in the stock market always carries risk, and it is essential to make informed decisions with your own capital.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by jaxdog
Regional Banking Crisis 2.0? KRE fell over 6% today due to mounting concerns about sour loans and weakening credit quality across regional banks. Many regional bank earnings reactions are not supporting positive price action. Loan Quality Fears: Wall Street is increasingly worried about deteriorating credit conditions in regional banks’ loan portfolios. Reports suggest rising delinquencies and potential defaults, especially in commercial real estate and small business lending. Jefferies & Zions Drag: Shares of Jefferies and Zions Bancorporation were among the hardest hit, amplifying pressure on the ETF. Zions, in particular, saw double-digit losses amid speculation about its exposure to risky assets. Tariff-Driven Recession Fears: Broader macro concerns, including recession risks tied to recent tariff policies, are weighing on bank stocks. Tariffs are seen as “unconditionally bad” for financials due to their impact on growth and lending demand.
AMEX:KREShort
by Trading-Capital
$UPS Stock Analysis and Trading StrategyOverview of UPS Price Movements UPS reached an all-time high (ATH) of $198.25, with a 52-week high at $145.01 and a 52-week low at $82.00. The stock experienced a significant decline, falling more than 58% from its ATH and over 43% from its 52-week high. After monitoring the company’s steady downward trend for several years, a sharp drop following the latest earnings report renewed interest in its performance. Initial Entry and Position Management Interest in a long position was sparked when the 50-day moving average (DMA) caught up with the stock’s price. On October 3rd, a half-sized position was initiated after observing three consecutive up days, which suggested a potential bottom. This move was confirmed as the price closed above both the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50 DMA. The stop-loss was set just below the recent lowest low of $82.00. Current Trade Status and Analysis The trade remains active, although currently underwater, as the original stop-loss has not been triggered. The double bottom theory now guides the position, since the low on October 14th also touched the $82.00 level and rebounded. Presently, the price is slightly below my buy point but continues to test the 50 DMA, which has now leveled out. Future Trading Strategy The plan is to hold the position until either a breakout above the blue resistance area occurs—at which point the position would be increased in anticipation of a stage 2 breakout—or until the price falls below $82.00, activating the stop-loss. If not currently in this trade, the preferred approach would be to wait for the stock to close above the 50 DMA again or for a breakout above the upper horizontal resistance area before entering. Disclaimer Readers are encouraged to conduct their own analysis and adhere to personal trading rules. Investing always involves risk, so it is crucial to make informed decisions with your own capital.
NYSE:UPS
by jaxdog
$ETSY: Ready for Stage 2 Breakout?Technical Analysis ETSY appears to be developing two significant technical patterns. The first is a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP), which often signals a potential breakout as volatility diminishes and price tightens. The second pattern is a Base on Base formation, suggesting a period of consolidation that can precede strong upward movement. Additionally, the stock is currently trading at or above all major moving averages, further supporting a bullish technical outlook. Fundamental Highlights • NYSE Transition: On September 29, 2025, Etsy announced its intention to move its stock listing to the New York Stock Exchange, with the transition becoming effective on October 13, 2025. CEO Josh Silverman explained that this move aims to enhance transparency and attract a wider range of institutional investors. • OpenAI Partnership: Also on September 29, Etsy revealed a new partnership with OpenAI. This collaboration will power AI-driven shopping experiences, including the integration of advanced product discovery tools into mobile platforms and enabling visual search capabilities to help shoppers find similar items on Etsy. • Executive Reorganization: On September 4, 2025, Etsy announced changes in its executive team, with Rafe Colburn being promoted to Chief Product and Technology Officer. Trading Considerations An alert is set at $73.50, anticipating an early entry if the stock breaks above the Flat Base pattern identified on the chart. This level may indicate the start of a new upward trend. Disclaimer Readers are encouraged to conduct their own analysis and follow personal trading rules. Investing always carries risk, so it is important to make informed decisions using your own capital.
NYSE:ETSYLong
by jaxdog
$FLY Firefly Stock Position Update and AnalysisOverview of Recent Positioning in Firefly ( NASDAQ:FLY ) On October 6th, I initiated a position in Firefly stock, purchasing a quarter-size allocation following the company's announcement of a deal to acquire SciTec, a firm specializing in military technology solutions. This acquisition was highlighted by Firefly CEO Jason Kim, who stated, "The acquisition of SciTec enhances our ability to support a growing number of defense missions and provides us with a significant operational advantage. SciTec's mission-proven software and big data processing capabilities provide warfighters with rapid, accurate information to enable informed decisions." Stock Performance and Position Adjustment After the acquisition news, Firefly's shares climbed 6.3% on Monday, October 6th closing at $29.09, with my entry price at $28.75. The stock continued to show strength, rallying again on October 8th. In response to this price action, I increased my stake by adding another quarter-size position, bringing my total investment to a half-size allocation. Technical Analysis and Trading Plan Since increasing my position, Firefly stock has traded sideways, which I interpret as a base-building phase. In today’s premarket trading, the price has moved just above what appears to be a key area of resistance, marked by a blue horizontal line on the 65-minute chart. Looking ahead, there is another potential resistance level at the previous high’s AVWAP (Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price). I have set an alert on the AVWAP level. If the stock price breaks above this point, I plan to increase my allocation to a full-size position. Trading Principles As always, I encourage readers to analyze this idea independently and adhere to their personal trading rules. Please remember that any investment involves risk, and it is essential to make informed decisions with your own capital.
NASDAQ:FLYLong
by jaxdog
$UNH Testing All-Time High AVWAPNYSE:UNH is currently testing its All-Time High Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (ATH AVWAP), while simultaneously forming what appears to be a flat base. In pre-market trading today, the stock price has moved above the AVWAP, potentially indicating reduced overhead resistance and the possibility for continued upward momentum. Position and Strategy I initiated a position in NYSE:UNH on August 13th and have steadily increased my holdings up to and including yesterday. As the stock approaches a critical juncture, there is potential for it to continue rallying, especially with earnings scheduled to be announced in 25 days. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets The consensus among analysts is generally positive for NYSE:UNH , with 16 rating it as a buy or strong buy, 7 assigning a hold rating, and 3 recommending a sell. The highest 12-month price target currently stands at $440. Future Plans If NYSE:UNH can move above the $362 level, I plan to further increase my already oversized position, as this would present a compelling opportunity to at least fill the gap.
NYSE:UNHLong
by jaxdog
$CRCL IPO AnalysisOverview of NYSE:CRCL NYSE:CRCL is a recent initial public offering (IPO) within the digital currency and blockchain payment industry. The company presents itself as the “World’s Largest Regulated” stablecoin provider in the global financial sector. Trade Entry and Rationale On September 11th, I initiated a position in NYSE:CRCL for $128. The entry was prompted by a notable pocket pivot and the stock’s ability to reclaim the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), indicated in green on my charts. To manage risk, I set a stop loss just below the low of the entry day, which has not been triggered. Since entering the trade, the position has appreciated by just over 7%. Current Position and Strategy I am closely monitoring an identified area of resistance, where I have set an alert. If the stock can surpass this resistance level, I intend to add to my existing position. Risks and Technical Considerations Despite positive short-term movement, this remains a risky trade. While NYSE:CRCL is trading above all its shorter-term moving averages, it remains below the 50-day moving average (DMA), shown in red. Additionally, the stock is trading below both the IPO Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price (AVWAP) and the All-Time-High AVWAP. These technical levels may represent points where selling pressure could emerge, which is important to consider if you were to initiate a position. Conclusion Given its current setup, NYSE:CRCL may be a candidate for your watchlist.
NYSE:CRCLLong
by jaxdog
SPY trend Broken? Use this Long / Short StrategyLast week was a choppy sell off in the markets. We did see the bulls defend price later into the week by bouncing the main indices very nicely. We discuss the simple support / resistance where you should be watching. Using the daily 7MA as resistance can be shorted however if we recapture and close above, then the markets remain a long to new highs. The trend of higher lows is still in tact signaling bullish strength... can we search for a new higher high?
AMEX:SPYLong
by Trading-Capital
Highest Volume Candle Since Tarriff LowIWM saw a nasty reversal off the all time highs today. A potential weekly topping tail is building. What important about this reaction is the amount of volume that was traded. This was the highest candle since April 9th. High Volume reversals need to be monitored closely as it does show large money distributed into this strength. A high volume candle marked the tariff bottom. Will a high volume candle signal a near term top?
AMEX:IWMShort
by Trading-Capital
1
$FLY Basing Opportunity?Overview A recent initial public offering (IPO), NASDAQ:FLY , may be of interest for those looking to update their watchlist. The company operates in the Space and Defense sector, which adds to its appeal. Technical Analysis The 30-minute chart for NASDAQ:FLY appears to show a shorter-term basing pattern. This technical setup suggests the potential for future upward movement, making the stock worth monitoring closely. Investment Position I currently hold a long position in $FLY. My stop-loss is set just below the lowest low, allowing for risk management while remaining positioned for possible gains.
NASDAQ:FLYLong
by jaxdog
2
$TTAN Stock Analysis: Potential Breakout OpportunityOverview NASDAQ:TTAN is a recently listed IPO that has demonstrated profitability since coming to market. After forming what appears to be a solid IPO base, the stock is now testing a significant area of resistance. The technical setup suggests a possible breakout to the upside. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, NASDAQ:TTAN is showing strong momentum. The stock price is currently trading above all major moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. Additionally, NASDAQ:TTAN sits above both the IPO Anchored VWAP and the All-Time High Anchored VWAP, further supporting the case for strength. Notably, trading volume has increased since the company reported earnings, which often signals growing investor interest and accumulation. Recent Analyst Activity The positive sentiment around NASDAQ:TTAN has been reinforced by recent analyst upgrades. Specifically, three major firms—Wells Fargo, Canaccord Genuity, and Stifel—each issued upgrades today, with all three setting price targets in the $140 to $145 range. Breakout Potential If NASDAQ:TTAN can decisively break above the current area of resistance, there appears to be substantial upside potential, with little technical resistance overhead. This setup suggests the possibility of a significant move higher should a breakout occur.
NASDAQ:TTANLong
by jaxdog
Potential $SPY Pullback AnalysisOverview This section examines the possibility of a pullback in SPY, based on recent price movements and historical trends. Current Price Stretch Relative to Moving Average SPY is currently trading approximately 9.5% above its 30-week moving average. This level of extension is notable, as it approaches the threshold observed during previous pullbacks. Historical Context Looking back, the last significant instance when SPY was stretched about 10% above its 30-week moving average resulted in a pullback toward the end of March 2024. This comparison provides context for the current market situation. Observational Note It is worth noting that a confirmed closing price for the current week has not yet been established. This analysis is not a prediction, but rather an observation intended to increase awareness of market conditions.
AMEX:SPY
by jaxdog
$SNOW Earnings Pullback OpportunityOverview of Recent Earnings and Market Reaction On August 27th, NYSE:SNOW reported its earnings after the market closed, missing analyst expectations. Despite the earnings miss, the company posted a significant increase in revenue, highlighting its continued growth within the AI sector. Institutional Interest and Subsequent Trading Activity Institutional investors demonstrated strong interest in NYSE:SNOW , as evidenced by trading volume that was more than four times higher than the average of the previous ten days. Following this surge, the next nine trading sessions saw some profit-taking, but this occurred on reduced volume, suggesting a potential consolidation rather than a reversal. Technical Analysis and Price Outlook Currently, NYSE:SNOW appears to be forming a bullish pennant pattern, which may indicate that the stock is ready to resume its uptrend. However, there could be resistance around the $235 level, which corresponds to previous highs. Trading Plan The plan is to initiate a long position in NYSE:SNOW if it breaks above the short-term downtrend line. A stop loss will be placed just below the most recent low to manage risk effectively.
NYSE:SNOWLong
by jaxdog
Melt-Up into FOMC - Post FED Expect CorrectionMore all-time highs I shouldn't be upset (and I'm really not as the portfolio continues to make new YTD highs) But technically, it is extremely frustrating to see nothing more than slow grind higher after slwo grind higher on the indexes - and also see blowout moves on individual stocks (ORCL, GOOGL, AVGO for example) Rising Wedge still hasn't rolled over, resistance at 6500 hasn't been a wall yet 50 Day Moving Average is now over 90 bars from price. I could see price action melting up into a crescendo or peak pre, during, or post FOMC and then fading lower after to find some technical levels I've been eyeing for weeks Enjoy the melt-up, just be ready for some action and volatility in the indexes, gold, silver, bitcoin, and the bond/yield markets I won't complain about YTD highs, but it's the caution ahead that I don't want to be surprised by in the coming weeks Plan accordingly - I'll continue to grind through it the best and safest way I know how Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
$XBI Trade UpdateChannel Breakout On September 3rd, AMEX:XBI broke out of its previously established, upward-trending channel. This movement was significant, as it marked a departure from the pattern that had been guiding its price action up until that point. Current Price Action and Potential Setup Since the breakout, AMEX:XBI appears to be forming a flat base. This development suggests the possibility of another breakout in the near future, which warrants close monitoring. Trade Execution and Position Management I entered this trade on September 2nd, anticipating a breakout. However, the price pulled back by the end of the day. Despite the initial setback, I am considering increasing my position if AMEX:XBI decisively breaks out of the flat base. Risk Management Strategy To manage risk, I have set my stop just below the upper channel line. This level provides a cushion and would result in a small profit if the stop is triggered quickly.
AMEX:XBILong
by jaxdog
$BWXT After Earnings Consolidation or Bear Flag?NYSE:BWXT I sold this today for a tiny loss but I think it could have an "after earnings rally." I bought on Aug 21st at what looked like a reversal confirmation. It wasn't. Looks like there is a lot of resistance at the horizontal line area. This could also be a bear flag. I won't know until it resolves. I have an alert over the area of resistance. Let's see what happens. Most of the time when a stock pulls back like this one, there is a resumption of the prior trend. In this case that is up. Operative word here is "most." As always, if you like this idea, please make it your own by following YOUR trading plan and rules. Remember, it is YOUR money at risk.
NYSE:BWXTLong
by jaxdog
$CC Cup with Handle Base?NYSE:CC appears to have built a Cup with a Handle Base and is now forming an additional flat base. I have set an alert at the upper horizontal line to trigger a new breakout. TBD. On a fundamental basis, they reported better-than-expected earnings on August 5th, with an earnings surprise of 26% and earnings growth of 53%. If you like this idea, please make it your own by following YOUR trading plan. Remember, it is your money at risk. From EarningsWhispers Chemours Beat Consensus Estimates Tuesday, August 5, 2025 at 4:56 PM ET Chemours (CC) reported earnings of $0.58 per share on revenue of $1.62 billion for the second quarter ended June 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.46 per share on revenue of $1.57 billion. The company beat consensus estimates by 26.09% while revenue grew 5.01% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects 2025 revenue of $5.90 billion to $6.00 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $5.86 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025. The Chemours Company is a global leader in Titanium Technologies, Thermal & Specialized Solutions, Advanced Performance Materials, and Chemical Solutions providing its customers with solutions in a wide range of industries with market-defining products, application expertise and chemistry-based innovations.
NYSE:CCLong
by jaxdog
2
$UBER Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum ObservedOverview NYSE:UBER appears to be demonstrating significant bullish activity, as evidenced by a strong follow-through day. The price action is currently breaking above what seems to be a Bull Flag pattern, which is typically considered a continuation signal in technical analysis. Technical Indicators • Price is trading above all major moving averages, which supports the bullish outlook. • NYSE:UBER is also above the All Time High AVWAP (Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price), indicating strong momentum. Alternative Patterns While the primary observation is a breakout from a Bull Flag, there is also a possibility that the current rally could be developing from a double top formation. However, confirmation of this pattern would only be possible after further price action is observed. Positioning and Risk Management Given the bullish chart setup, a half-size position has been initiated. The stop-loss is set to trigger on a close below the 50-day moving average (red), providing a disciplined approach to risk management. Trading Reminder As always, if this idea resonates with you, consider adapting it to your own trading plan. Remember, trading decisions should be guided by your personal strategy and risk tolerance, as your money is at stake.
NYSE:UBERLong
by jaxdog
4
SPX is in a clear breakout trend! SP:SPX has triggered 2 larger bullish patterns. Both patterns result in higher price. Despite the weakness in NVDA the markets have shrugged off the decline. We are trading into new all time highs so price discovery mode is in a effect. When you have no resistance pivots or volume to trade against at new all time highs you really have to be careful if you're shorting the market. Volume trends. extension moves, ATR, deviations should all be included in your analysis to define upside target zones. We continue to remain net long the markets with key shorts in place.
SP:SPXLong
by Trading-Capital
2
$CRWV Round Bottom Reversal?NASDAQ:CRWV is a hot IPO running from a low of $33.52 to a high of $187 back to a low of $85.26 and now trading, as of this post, at $94.67. I bought a small position on Aug 21st on what I thought at the time was a follow through from the low on Aug 20th. My entry price was $94.58, and I have not gotten stopped out as the price has not dropped below $85.26, the most recent low. It looks to me to be forming a rounded bottom reversal. I have drawn in what I think seems to be an important price level at 96.60. “If” it can get up and over that I plan to add to my position. And my stop remains the same, a breach of the most recent low. This one is clearly not out of the woods and is a high-risk trade as it is below important moving averages. On the other hand, the risk is well defined. If you like this idea, please make it your own by following your trading plan. Remember, it is your money at risk. From Earnings Whispers: CoreWeave Missed Expectations Tuesday, August 12, 2025 at 4:07 PM ET CoreWeave (CRWV) reported a loss of $0.25 per share on revenue of $1.21 billion for the second quarter ended June 2025. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.20 per share on revenue of $1.08 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was a loss of $0.17 per share. The company missed expectations by 47.06%. The company said during its conference call it expects third quarter revenue of $1.26 billion to $1.30 billion and 2025 revenue of $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion. The company's previous guidance was 2025 revenue of $4.90 billion to $5.10 billion. The current consensus revenue estimate is $1.23 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2025 and revenue of $5.01 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025. CoreWeave, the AI Hyperscaler™, delivers a cloud platform of cutting-edge software powering the next wave of AI.
NASDAQ:CRWVLong
by jaxdog
1