Waiting the red support to break, to enter a short position, if ever.
Dayli IWM, limits for the Iron Condor for the weeklies
It cannot break the resistance for the past 3 days, and has a two day price reversal in a row. This suggests a trend reversal is in the cards and wait for an entry for short.
Blue resistance has established. If it does not get broken out in the coming days, the rally since early August may come to an end and 4% or more drop maybe in the card. Note the weakening RSI, MACD and Stoch.
I do not trade time frame less than 2 hours, but how IWM closes today amazed me - just look at the last minute volume spike and price dip.
Assuming a down trend channel is forming. Very bullish if the upper bound is taken and very bearish if the lower bound is broken. Current state is short term bullish until upper bound is hit, if ever.
Yesterday it was possible a fading the 2 days before gap. One possibility was a bullish debit call spread on TZA (9/19 strikes 15/16) so far it is flat, but TZA keeps always depreciating, by the day, maybe it was better simply to use a bearish debit put spread on IWM. SPY is losing momentum, IWM as well, …. will they go back down and close at their VWAPs?
With VXX fast rising against the resistance, RSI is approaching short term overbought zone, meanwhile, IWM is sitting right on a support line that has been formed since Nov. 2013. If this support line can hold for today, I expect a IWM rebound early next week. Otherwise this line may become new resistance.
First sell signal since July 2012, similar to that of July 2007. What make it a sell signal? . Price below 10 month MA, and . 3 EMA below 5 EMA, and . RSI support broke, below 70, and . MACD negative, and . Stoch below 80 This sell signal most likely is valid because today is the last day of July. Note that market does not go one way straight, there will be up...
Want to see . pink support lines can hold today. . MACD improves. Note IWM is bearish on monthly and weekly chart.
There's a storm brewing. It might not be a perfect storm, but it could be a formidable one for any bulls. We have two escalating global conflicts (Ukraine + Israeli) + Technical indicators all point to market over bought + Fed is denouncing the valuation of small cap, tech and bio tech sectors. We could still go up more if the invisible hand of the market...
Russell 2000 started this year as underperformer, but bear chanel was broken and we had nice upside follow through and retested 2013-2014 highs. But now 8 and 21 EMAs are broken, they supported price during this move up. Accelerated trend was broken on 8 of July and now it looks like a nice "h"-pattern with entry below $114 and stop above previous swing high and...
. Negative MACD - already there . RSI below 70, and need blue support line to break. . Need a downward 10 month MA, not there yet. . Need the price to dip below 10 month MA, not there yet. . Need 3 EMA to dip below 5 EMA, not there yet. Overall, it is getting weaker but has not broken yet. Patient.
Blue support line broken and retested, resulting a double top. If red support line broken, the pink support line may come into play. Otherwise, price may swing between the blue and red lines. A down trend RSI appears established.
I like the .382 fib retracement target in this case, based on the lower timeframe. The 15min chart has an ABC retracement in place, with an extension to the same area. (IWM 15min chart) Both point to 166 area, then we should see another leg down covering at minimum the distance of this last move, but likely 161.8% or more.