Jd catalysts are in place for $43 Interestingly enough , the technicals are aligning perfectly for a sharp move in the coming 2-3 weeks for JD. The breakout of a large wedge , retest of the breakout and consolidation near the support are all bullish signs. The 1.618 fib extension for wave 3 takes it to about $43. Low and behold, this level aligns with the red downsloping trendline that connects 2 previous highs.
All this needs is a spark, which will be the tweet Donald Trump will put out once the deal is finalized. His photo op with Xi will be the icing on top. I wouldnt be surprised to see a nice pop into the previois range around $35-$37. The subsequent earnings in mid Nov could be another leg in what will be a journey to $43.
KRE
Regional Banking Crisis 2.0? KRE fell over 6% today due to mounting concerns about sour loans and weakening credit quality across regional banks.
Many regional bank earnings reactions are not supporting positive price action.
Loan Quality Fears: Wall Street is increasingly worried about deteriorating credit conditions in regional banks’ loan portfolios. Reports suggest rising delinquencies and potential defaults, especially in commercial real estate and small business lending.
Jefferies & Zions Drag: Shares of Jefferies and Zions Bancorporation were among the hardest hit, amplifying pressure on the ETF. Zions, in particular, saw double-digit losses amid speculation about its exposure to risky assets.
Tariff-Driven Recession Fears: Broader macro concerns, including recession risks tied to recent tariff policies, are weighing on bank stocks. Tariffs are seen as “unconditionally bad” for financials due to their impact on growth and lending demand.
$KRE Swing Trade Strangle Call Debit Spread & Put Debit SpreadAMEX:KRE
Bto 6/17/25 3:48pm PDS Jul18 54/53 Paid 0.27
Open BB 8EMA at Trap bearish, with error at the gap down. keep position until confirmation to change trend.
Bto 6/25/25 3:50pm CDS Oct17 69/70 Paid 0.06
Open BA 8EMA , Confirmation pull back , and PBJ 200SMA/200EMA. This day NYSE:C NYSE:BAC Squeeze. More confirmation to go Long.
KRE Regional Banks In Trouble?KRE is starting to scream Danger! Wave 3 up ending. Multiple head and shoulders (one massive) the current uptrending is now starting to CRACK! signaling that the right shoulder will now start to form.
I see no benefit for bulls to hold on as risk is now very high. Furthermore, this is a bad sign for the overall economy and markets as regional banks are US domestic. Bad JUJU!
Don't be a dick for tick! ))
KRE Seems to be in troubleIts in a big trouble.
Entry Short: 61
Stop Loss: 63.60
Exit: ~36
This is a potential 40% gain in 6 months.
All the best.
Marketpanda
Disclaimer: The information provided is for general informational and educational purposes only, and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. None of the content shared should be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. Prior to making any financial or investment decisions, it is strongly recommended that you consult with a qualified financial advisor, accountant, or other professional who is familiar with your individual circumstances and risk tolerance. Any reliance you place on the information presented is strictly at your own risk, and we are not responsible for any losses, damages, or liabilities resulting from your investment or trading activities.
Opening (IRA): KRE Oct 18th 49/57/57/65 Iron Fly... for a 4.14 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 67.1/39. Another small nondirectional in an underlying that I'm not currently in while I bide my time waiting on other positions .... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: 4.14
Buying Power Effect: 3.86
ROC at Max: 107.25%
25% Max: 1.04
ROC at 25% Max: 26.81%
Are financials topping? XLF hitting major resistance.
JPM hitting major resistance.
Financial have been putting a very strong bid under the SPY & IWM
If financials are topping here i do think it will be a major headwind for the market.
I'm watching to see if the Fed rate cut becomes buy the rumor sell the news!
$KRE massive H&S top?Thanks to @TORNADOF5 for reminding me about this.
A friend sent me a tweet last night about how banks are levered up on debt and that prompted me to look at the chart of KRE.
As you might remember, AMEX:KRE was one of the worst performing ETFs at the beginning of this year with the failure of a ton of local banks. But since earlier this year, I haven't heard much talk about banks being in trouble.
Well I pulled up the chart, I was surprised to see a massive H&S top forming. If price breaks $37-38, then I could see a big move down. The first target would be $29 and if price gets under that, it could get really bad.
Could see price making it all the way to the lower support levels.
Let's keep an eye on this because it'll be a great trade should it play out.
IWM Rally Around the Corner?Bullish divergence is spotted on the IWM/QQQ chart, IWM is being dragged down because of Fed hawkish comments and KRE underperformance. This is a weekly chart so we need time for this to play out, I remain bullish on IWM for the remainder of the year, even just 1% of inflows from QQQ into IWM could make it go up 10%.
Opening (IRA): KRE Sept 20th 42 Covered Call... for a 40.73 debit.
Comments: Adding to my KRE (IVR/IV 50.4/28.6) position with a setup out in the September monthly that has a break even better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call.
Additionally, attempting to grab a little more June divvy if I can, with ex-dividend not having been declared yet.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 40.73
Max Profit: 1.27 ($127)
ROC at Max: 3.12%
50% Max: .64
ROC at 50% Max: 1.56%
US Bank about to implode! Regional Banking is gonna take a hit!First you have the FDIC come out and say no matter what we can whether a large US Bank failure - out of nowhere! Japan is stuck in a corner, can't sell bonds to defend its currency, and can't raise rates enough. Like every Central Bank they're stuck. So now a large US bank will be "allowed" to fail that will give Powell the excuse to cut rates - leading to a large reinflation boost (precious metals).
Biden even hinted at rates coming down in July so this regional bank implosion has to happen soon. I don't see banking in the USA doing good long term because the banking structure needs to be consolidated to isolate and do away with cash so they can bring out CBDC's. At that point banks will be "stakeholders" which is fancy speak for fascist government control over corporations, but from an international level.
Also, TTM Squeeze indicator is loaded on every TF except Monthly, which showed that it already went off and is gathering steam for the next leg down in the breakout, but a very powerful move since this is signaling on the weekly chart.
Opening (IRA): KRE August 19th 44 Monied Covered Call... for a 42.98 debit.
Comments: Hitting a little KRE (IVR/IV 42/28) on weakness here, looking primarily to grab the June dividend (March distribution: .38; 3.19% annualized). Selling the -75 call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 42.98
Max Profit: 1.02 ($102) ex. dividend
ROC at Max: 2.37%
50% Max: .51 ($51) ex. dividend
ROC at 50% Max: 1.19%
Will primarily look to take profit at 50% max, roll out the short call on test ... .
KRE: Regional Bank Collapse?Financials have been demonstrating some interesting price action. We believe financials in the near term could be in for some choppy negative price action.
With yields now sitting at support during the recent selloff, banks haven't done all that well.
Were now at a point in the inflation fight where we could experience an upside move in inflation.
We just witnessed today the Canadian CPI came in much hotter.
To make matters worse, were at a time when central banks like the ECB, BOC, PBOC, BOJ are all loosening policy.
However this very laxy=daisy policy is what caused Oil to bottom on June 4th.
Oil has since moved up 13% in 2.5 weeks.
This will likely cause yields to have upward pressure since its inflationary to the economy.
If the US CPI comes in hotter expect no 2024 rate cut...banks would hate that. Im eyeing the head and shoulders breakdown.
NYCB Community Bank falls to support and rises LONGOn the 15 minute chart the price action reflects the rough time that NYCB has had. Apparently it had a good rally to finish the week due to reports of floods of new deposits . Down the road
it may be a problem if premium interest is being paid on the deposits. In the meanwhile, I
see NYCB as taking back half of the trend down and floating up gradually into the range of 7
or about 60% upside. This will be a volatile and risky trade but with good upside. I will set a
8% or ATR x 2 stop loss yielding a Reward to risk of about 7.
Opened: KRE March 15th 39/44/50/55 Iron Condor... for a 1.68 credit.
Comments: ETF IV > 35% with 30-day IV at 37.9%.
Collecting 1/3rd the width of the wings of a 5-wide; 1.68 credit on BPE of 3.32; 50.6% ROC at max; 25.3% at 50% max.
It was kind of a toss-up between doing this as an iron fly or as an iron condor due to the size of the underlying, so compromised, going in somewhat aggressively with the short option legs (they're camped out at the 30 delta). This will allow me to adjust the setup somewhat before having to go inverted with the short strangle aspect (now I've jinxed it).
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; adjust sides on side test.
KBE - S %& P Small Bank ETF LONGKBE is an unleveraged bank ETF which on the 60 minute chart is currently trending with a buy
signal from the machine learning algo indicator. Banks are reporting. Interest rate changes by
the fed are flat for the time being. The volume profile shows KBE took a dip to try to fall back
into the high-volume area and bounced. It has recovered from a VWAP band breakdown
correcting from the 3rd upper band to the first upper band. The dual time RSI indicator
shows the faster RSI line crossing over the slower RSI line and both in the healthy 60 range.
I see this as a buying opportunity on KBE and will also take a look at DPST. I see price as
targeting the February 23 high about 20% upside.
Bearish potential detected for KRELooking at KRE during the final hour of trade this morning on the US markets, KRE represents a potential bearish opportunity should momentum continue and lower highs and lower lows be made past the current position, considering breach of recent support levels aligning with technical indicators of RSI and DMI. Personal stop loss for the trade would be the high of the recent swing on 17-Oct (i.e.: above the high of $42.92) and will track the declining 30 day moving average as the trade continues.
Regional Banks Are Still in Serious Trouble!Traders,
For the second time this year, regional banks are threatening to cross on over an essential support that has carried us through this secular bull market for 14 (going on 15) years! If our support breaks, I fear that regional banks could drag everything else down with it. Remember, it is regional banks that hold the loans for much of commercial real estate. Much of commercial real estate went vacant during COVID. We are only now beginning to understand the wave of bankruptcies that are crashing in hard as a result!
Watch this line closely or stay tuned here and I will keep you up to speed as I observe any significant changes.
Stewdamus
Bank of America: Ascending Broadening Wedge Below S/R ZoneBank of America has confirmed the MA's and S/R zone as Resistance within an Ascending Broadening Wedge just as PACW did not so long ago, and now more interest is building at lower levels, which could suggest that BAC will be breaking down from this wedge very soon, and the measured move would take it all the way down to about $2, though we could see it try to hold $17 before that.
This is a little bit of an update to the BAC and PACW fractal listed in the related ideas tab, this time more focused on BAC as a whole.
KRE ETF – are banking risks resurfacing? While the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has been a key factor in supporting bank equity, the rapid rise in US Treasury bond yields is a concern, and so is the exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). We can see CRE benchmarks rolling over of late and heading lower and this is keeping investors from buying into regionals. One for the radar, but if we see the price continue in the current trajectory then it could see signs of greater risk aversion kicking into markets. Staying in the ETF scene, I am also watching the HYG ETF (iShares High Yield Corp ETF) given we see that falling sharply but seeing some extremely oversold reads.






















