Thanks to @TORNADOF5 for reminding me about this. A friend sent me a tweet last night about how banks are levered up on debt and that prompted me to look at the chart of KRE. As you might remember, AMEX:KRE was one of the worst performing ETFs at the beginning of this year with the failure of a ton of local banks. But since earlier this year, I haven't...
Bullish divergence is spotted on the IWM/QQQ chart, IWM is being dragged down because of Fed hawkish comments and KRE underperformance. This is a weekly chart so we need time for this to play out, I remain bullish on IWM for the remainder of the year, even just 1% of inflows from QQQ into IWM could make it go up 10%.
... for a 40.73 debit. Comments: Adding to my KRE (IVR/IV 50.4/28.6) position with a setup out in the September monthly that has a break even better than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call. Additionally, attempting to grab a...
SOFI - seems like bear flag short term, ideally can break the pendant first downside and then reverse around 5.5 - 6 range, moon to 8.30 , I am adding shares below 6.20, currently holding a large size
First you have the FDIC come out and say no matter what we can whether a large US Bank failure - out of nowhere! Japan is stuck in a corner, can't sell bonds to defend its currency, and can't raise rates enough. Like every Central Bank they're stuck. So now a large US bank will be "allowed" to fail that will give Powell the excuse to cut rates - leading to a large...
... for a 42.98 debit. Comments: Hitting a little KRE (IVR/IV 42/28) on weakness here, looking primarily to grab the June dividend (March distribution: .38; 3.19% annualized). Selling the -75 call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even:...
Financials have been demonstrating some interesting price action. We believe financials in the near term could be in for some choppy negative price action. With yields now sitting at support during the recent selloff, banks haven't done all that well. Were now at a point in the inflation fight where we could experience an upside move in inflation. We just...
On the 15 minute chart the price action reflects the rough time that NYCB has had. Apparently it had a good rally to finish the week due to reports of floods of new deposits . Down the road it may be a problem if premium interest is being paid on the deposits. In the meanwhile, I see NYCB as taking back half of the trend down and floating up gradually into the...
... for a 1.68 credit. Comments: ETF IV > 35% with 30-day IV at 37.9%. Collecting 1/3rd the width of the wings of a 5-wide; 1.68 credit on BPE of 3.32; 50.6% ROC at max; 25.3% at 50% max. It was kind of a toss-up between doing this as an iron fly or as an iron condor due to the size of the underlying, so compromised, going in somewhat aggressively with the...
KBE is an unleveraged bank ETF which on the 60 minute chart is currently trending with a buy signal from the machine learning algo indicator. Banks are reporting. Interest rate changes by the fed are flat for the time being. The volume profile shows KBE took a dip to try to fall back into the high-volume area and bounced. It has recovered from a VWAP band...
Looking at KRE during the final hour of trade this morning on the US markets, KRE represents a potential bearish opportunity should momentum continue and lower highs and lower lows be made past the current position, considering breach of recent support levels aligning with technical indicators of RSI and DMI. Personal stop loss for the trade would be the high of...
Traders, For the second time this year, regional banks are threatening to cross on over an essential support that has carried us through this secular bull market for 14 (going on 15) years! If our support breaks, I fear that regional banks could drag everything else down with it. Remember, it is regional banks that hold the loans for much of commercial real...
KRE head and shoulders bearish set up, easy low 30s target, higher rates, wider AL mismatch due to longer durations of Mortgages+MBS, Capital Base deterioration due to CMBS defaults >>> Fed to the rescue aka Regionals to fold into Big6...continued
Bank of America has confirmed the MA's and S/R zone as Resistance within an Ascending Broadening Wedge just as PACW did not so long ago, and now more interest is building at lower levels, which could suggest that BAC will be breaking down from this wedge very soon, and the measured move would take it all the way down to about $2, though we could see it try to...
While the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has been a key factor in supporting bank equity, the rapid rise in US Treasury bond yields is a concern, and so is the exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). We can see CRE benchmarks rolling over of late and heading lower and this is keeping investors from buying into regionals. One for the radar, but if we see...
Financials charts have completely been rejected by the downscoping trend line. A weekly bear flag looks like it's about to trigger and send price action much lower. Since the daily chart is getting oversold, waiting for bearish consolidation is a wise decision if you are wanting to short. With the rise in yields recently, it's clear the Banks net interest...
Some interesting developments in the bank etfs today - XLF and KRE, worth watching on both a weekly and daily basis. Long term JPM looks like a head and shoulders may be forming.
Goldman Sachs is another one of those stocks that's traded like a can of dog food for a very long period of time that the masses are really drawn to, much like Target, Disney, and Paypal, of which you can find calls for that I've made in the linked section below. GS is relatively significant in that it's one of the 30 components of the Dow, which is one of the...